Tech Slides to Close a Volatile Week… Citi Deal Chatter, A Weak Yen, and Nike’s Big Test 3/27/26

Summary

CNBC Fast Money – Episode Summary

Date: March 27, 2026
Host: Brian Kelly (in for Melissa Lee) with Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami, Mike Coe
Episode Title: Tech Slides to Close a Volatile Week… Citi Deal Chatter, A Weak Yen, and Nike’s Big Test

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Overview

This episode of "Fast Money" recaps a tumultuous week for markets—specifically a sharp decline in tech stocks, stubbornly high rates, banking sector rumors, and significant moves in both oil and currency markets. The team dissects the causes and implications of the Nasdaq’s slide, analyzes chatter around Citigroup, delves into Japanese bond and currency moves, debates energy stocks, and previews Nike’s upcoming earnings. Throughout, the tone is forthright and market-focused, emphasizing actionable themes for investors navigating volatility.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Correction: Tech & The Magnificent Seven

[01:02–05:57]

• Market Performance:
  The Nasdaq is down for a fifth straight week, suffering its worst week in almost a year. The Dow is down 10% from its high (correction territory), and the S&P 500 is below its 200-day moving average.
  “The Nasdaq posting its lowest close since August and pacing for its worst month in a year…Down nearly 13% from its record high of last year.” —Brian Kelly [01:30]
• Big Tech Meltdown:
  The Magnificent Seven (biggest tech stocks) are dragging the index. Apple is the least damaged, down less than 20% from its high; others, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta, are all 60% below Wall Street targets.
• Valuation Squeeze:
  The panel questions if Wall Street analysts will now cut targets, as upgrades/downgrades may be overdue. Market hedging is prominent.
  “There are downgrades galore coming and they're going to be coming after an earnings season which is two weeks away.” —Guy Adami [04:15]

2. Market Sentiment & Interest Rates

[05:57–10:28]

• Hedging & Caution:
  Professional investors have been bearish and well-hedged. Elevated VIX (volatility) reflects persistent nervousness; people are not buying this dip.

• Bond Market Role:
  The panel identifies the bond market—specifically rising yields—as the “quiet culprit.”
  “The bond markets is probably the quiet culprit this week…but people don't seem to be buying this dip.” —Tim Seymour [05:57]

• Analyst Price Target Discrepancy:
  Analysts tend to set optimistic targets; however, with stocks deep in bear territory, price targets may be slashed.

• Apple’s Outperformance:
  Apple is unique for restrained spending and cautious partnerships (notably in AI), which may continue to support its share price.
  “I think Apple will continue to outperform. They'll continue to partner with people in AI and I think that's the best route to go.” —Tim Seymour [06:53]

3. Is There Value After the Drop?

[07:29–09:05]

• Index Valuation:
  NASDAQ 100’s P/E ratio is just over 20. Despite the decline, the consensus is: not yet a “screaming buy.”
  “When you take a look at the valuations, it hardly seems like a screaming buy to me. The market feels heavy.” —Mike Coe [07:48]
• Oil's Macro Impact:
  The cut in oil supply (and production) is having measurable ripples through global GDP and risk appetite—beyond just energy sector moves.

4. Uncertainty Dominates – Fed, War, and Technicals

[09:05–12:08]

• Technical Damage:
  Heavily technical traders (e.g., Rich Ross) are re-evaluating positions after major levels were breached.
  “The technical damage is such that I think even folks who expect a headline coming out of the administration…that negativity hasn't been resonating.” —Tim Seymour [09:05]
• Fed Policy Confusion:
  There’s no clarity whether the Fed will cut, hold, or hike rates. The war in Iran is seen as an accelerant, not the root cause, of the selloff. “The market doesn’t know anything…We all think things but nobody knows how this is ultimately going to play out.” —Brian Kelly [10:28]
• Bond Market Overhang:
  Panel sees diminishing marginal returns from policy jawboning; bond market pressures are beyond easy government fixes.

5. Global Yield Moves and Leverage Concerns

[13:15–19:18]

• International Bond Moves:
  Rising yields aren’t confined to the US: the UK 10-year is over 5%. Global debt and deficits are forcing investors to rethink their risk, with sovereign and corporate leverage a growing worry. “It is a developed market, global bond sell off. And it's not just worries about inflation…it's a major rethink of investor desire to take duration risk.” —Peter Boockvar [13:59]
• Fed Rate Cuts—No Panacea:
  Even if the Fed cuts rates, the rest of the yield curve may not cooperate, especially if inflation and deficits dominate.
  “Even if they cut doesn't mean that the rest of the curve is going to accommodate that.” —Peter Boockvar [15:48]
• Earnings at Risk:
  Market multiples may not make sense if earnings estimates decline, which is likely if high oil prices linger or the economy slows.
  “Should we assume that earnings are going to just continue on as is in light of everything that's going on? I don't think so.” —Peter Boockvar [18:38]

6. Banking Sector: Citigroup Deal Chatter & Outlook

[26:30–30:37]

• Citigroup Rumors:
  Citi dropped ~4.5% after reports it’s considering buying a US regional bank. Citi called it "baseless speculation," but the panel senses possible truth due to pressures for deposits and growth.
• Bank Valuations & Risk:
  Despite recent improvements in efficiency, rising yields threaten credit and growth. A move to 4.75-5% on the 10-year would be "bad for banks." “Net interest margins—every tick higher on the 10 year is bad for banks.” —Guy Adami [29:43]
• Banks Not an Automatic Buy:
  If rates fall for recessionary reasons, that alone doesn't guarantee a banking sector rebound.
• Homebuilder Parallel:
  Falling yields aren't a panacea for homebuilder stocks either, due to broader macro weakness.

7. Japan: Yen Weakness & Impact on Global Markets

[32:46–35:21]

• Yen Slide, Rising Bond Yields:
  Yen hit its weakest level versus the dollar since July 2024, with Japanese yields at 30-year highs. The carry trade and unwinding of Japanese leverage are seen as potential sources of global financial volatility.
  “Japan is, is a case of where monetary policy and central bank policy has been really an experiment…they are at the center of the carry trade.” —Guy Adami [33:16]
• Spillover to US Markets:
  Japanese bond sales could drive up US yields; higher Japanese yields pressure other global bonds.
• Global Macro Risk:
  The team flags the risk that large-scale moves in Japan’s currency and bond markets can trigger ripple effects in the US financial system.

8. Energy Stocks: “Too Hot?” Or Still a Buy?

[36:06–41:55]

• Energy Sector Surge:
  XLE (energy ETF) is up 40% YTD and 14 weeks straight, making it the best S&P sector amid war-driven oil spikes.
• Technical Warning:
  Carter Worth ("Chartmaster") notes XLE is far above its long-term moving average—the time to buy aggressively was before the recent oil spike. Relative performance to the S&P remains poor, and energy stocks tend to move before crude does. “The energy shares are ahead of the facts and I think it’s time to reduce your exposure to energy shares.” —Carter Worth [39:03]
• Skepticism & Debate:
  Others argue the long-term story for well-run energy companies is strong, but an oil price reset to $80-100/barrel (up from $65) is likely, which can still sustain earnings.
• Macro Headwind Remains:
  Any broad market bounce could come at energy's expense, but fundamental supply issues may keep the sector buoyant longer term.

9. Crypto Downturn & Gold Resilience

[41:55–44:12]

• Bitcoin Drops:
  Bitcoin falls below $65k—trading like a risk asset rather than a safe haven.
  “Bitcoin’s not a safety source…it’s proven to be just so not what it was.” —Guy Adami [43:27]

• ETFs and New Buyers:
  Bitcoin ETFs may have changed the character of bitcoin markets, introducing less-dedicated holders.

• Gold Comparison:
  Gold, by contrast, is bouncing and continuing to outperform gold miners.

10. Nike’s Test: Earnings Preview

[44:13–46:20]

• Stock Under Pressure:
  Nike near 8-year lows, down 17% in a month as its earnings loom.
• Options Activity:
  Options imply a 9% post-earnings move (vs 6% average); more call than put activity hints at cautious optimism but the stock is "cheaper, not yet cheap."
  “The options market is implying a movement of almost 9% after they report earnings. And that's substantially higher than the 6% or so that the company historically has averaged.” —Mike Coe [45:37]
• Panel’s Take:
  Cautious on the turnaround, with broader skepticism on the athleisure sector overall.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Analyst Optimism vs. Reality:
  “Somebody, the market or Wall Street or both, are wrong.” —Brian Kelly [01:52]

• On Bond Market as Hidden Risk:
  “The bond market genie is out of the bottle and it's diminishing marginal returns in terms of what they put out and what the market reacts.” —Steve Grasso [11:10]

• On U.S. vs. Global Moves:
  “It's a developed market, global bond sell off…it's a major rethink of investor desire to take duration risk.” —Peter Boockvar [13:59]

• On Energy Market Technicals:
  “The energy shares move first. The commodity is now coming along from the news. The energy shares are ahead of the facts and I think it’s time to reduce your exposure to energy shares.” —Carter Worth [39:03]

• On Bitcoin’s Role:
  “Bitcoin’s not a safety source. Maybe it’s proven to be just so not what it was.” —Guy Adami [43:27]

• On Nike’s Prospects:
  “Cheaper, not yet cheap.” —Mike Coe [46:20]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamp (MM:SS) | |-------------------------------------|----------------------| | Tech/Nasdaq slide & Magnificent 7 | 01:02 – 05:57 | | Market sentiment & bond market | 05:57 – 10:28 | | Analyst targets & valuation | 07:29 – 09:05 | | Fed/confusion/war impact | 09:05 – 12:08 | | Global yield moves, leverage | 13:15 – 19:18 | | Banking sector & Citi rumors | 26:30 – 30:37 | | Japan: Yen and yields | 32:46 – 35:21 | | Energy stocks: Technicals & future | 36:06 – 41:55 | | Crypto & gold moves | 41:55 – 44:12 | | Nike earnings preview | 44:13 – 46:20 | | Closing/final trades | 46:45 – 47:27 |

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Final Trades Highlights

• Mike Coe: Hedge using narrow out-of-money put spreads (with VIX above 31, options are expensive) [46:45]
• Guy Adami: Defensive positioning, likes British Tobacco (BTI)
• Tim Seymour: Merck as the best Big Pharma name
• Steve Grasso: Halliburton as his pick

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Tone & Style

The discussion is lively, pragmatic, and sometimes irreverent—peppered with brisk repartee and candid assessments. The panel calls out risks directly, frequently referencing their own positions and biases, while offering actionable viewpoints for traders and investors.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode offers a comprehensive breakdown of the market’s volatile week—summarizing why tech and energy are moving, what risks lurk in rates and global currencies, and how to approach big headlines from Citi, Nike, and more. The consensus: risks abound, but possible tactical opportunities exist for the well-prepared. Proceed with hedged caution.

Transcript

[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Brian Kelly]

Live for the NASDAQ Market Sight in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap. Call to Tech Rec. Officially the Nasdaq dropping for a fifth week in a row. Locking in its worst week in nearly a year. The question now for you, how much more pain is left in the trade and could there be opportunity? Buy low, sell, sell high. Oil's next move. Speaking of high, crude oil rising again. Energy stocks trading at records. But have some of these names gotten ahead of themselves even with everything that's going on? We'll dig into the charts. Plus why the yen's move caught the eye of one or two of our traders. Is Citigroup looking to get a little regional and counting down to Nike earnings, the sportswear giant trading at eight year lows. Is there anything CEO Elliot Hill can say or do next week and we'll get that stock going again and making money for you? We're going to find out. Hi everybody. I am Brian in for Melissa Lee tonight. Coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq and on your desk we got Tim, we got Steve, we got Guy, and we got Mike co out west. Let's begin with the month plus long losing streak for stocks. The Dow now down over 10% from its high means it's officially in a technical correction. The S and p today down 1.7%. That's its fifth straight losing week. But the real pain was the Nasdaq back down close to another 2% and it closed out a rough week. This is President Trump's Iran deadline extension failed to eat ease Investor fears the Nasdaq posting its lowest close since August and pacing for its worst month in a year. The Nasdaq is now down nearly 13% from its record high of last year. The Magnificent Seven stocks among the biggest drags on the index as you would imagine. Apple in fact is the only one of those seven that is down less than 20% from its record high. And check out this RBI, random but interesting in video. Microsoft, Metta, Guy, Adami, they're all more than 60% below your average Wall street target. Big night, lot to digest. Glad to be here. So if Microsoft, Those stocks are 60, 50, 60% below where Wall street analysts see them, somebody the market or Wall street or both are wrong.

[Steve Grasso]

You would have thought though if we had played that game, if I had told you all these things would be true. Where's the s and P500 and you wouldn't say six and a half, 7%?

[Mike Coe]

Yeah.

[Brian Kelly]

What is it down percent at least.

[Steve Grasso]

Yeah, so. So you know one of two ways the S and P has some catching up to do on the downside or the rotation is strong enough such that the S and P can hang in there. Now I do think the S and P is going to be the last to go and we're below the 200 day average now for about a week or so. And all those names you mentioned, think about Facebook. Facebook made its all time high in August of last year. It's now the end of March of 2026. So all these stocks I think have been trying to tell you something. But for me it's all been predicated on simply one thing, the fact that the bond market is not cooperating and seemingly is getting worse by the day.

[Guy Adami]

Well, I think when we talk about some of those biggest names in the market, you mentioned that they're 60% below the wall street target. What usually happens when analysts are way below their target in a stock that's moving higher, they tend to upgrade. I mean there are downgrades galore coming and they're going to be coming after an earnings season which is two weeks away. Now I don't know that that's the follow through, but I do know that in the case of, of I would just say the market overall. Remember we went into this war with stocks that were actually struggling with the market multiple and they were struggling for a number of reasons, especially related to free cash flow dynamics that may not be there for the top market cap in the market credit concerns. And I just think that's something that we need to think about. I Think in terms of the market dynamics, the good news for market strategists and players out there is everybody's hedged up, everybody's nervous. We hedged well. So this week we've talked about on this show Dynamics where you've seen hedging up in the rates markets in the short term rates markets to make up for where people are offsides. We've seen index hedges. We talked about it wouldn't say ad nauseam, Brian, but last Friday we talked a lot about the options market and that, that, that expiry, there was no question a lot of that was rolled forward. This is a market that if you talk to the professional community, they have been bearish for some time. They have been hedged up and that tends to be the silver lining. The problem is that VIX had a closing high today, which is the high of the range. We haven't been this consistently above a 25 Vix. This goes all the way back to 22 and Credit Dynamics and I should say Fed Dynamics, Interest Rate Dynamics. So to me, the bond markets guy said I think is probably the quiet culprit this week. But I think the multiple for the market at some point is where investors have to be sitting and people don't seem to be buying this dip.

[Tim Seymour]

So when you open up with the price targets and they're this far below their price targets. So if you think about it, when, when a, an analyst gives his price target, he usually punches that 20 to 40% above the market because it's got to be something to reach for or else he's got to write the paperwork. It takes six months to do this work. Then if you look at most of those stocks are in a bear market. So those two things coupled create that dislocation. So to Tim's point, either they're going to start now cutting their price targets or, or they're going to wait it out. They don't like to be this much below the price target because now it just becomes unrealistic and it becomes a crapshoot.

[Brian Kelly]

And I don't know if they can upgrade because on these stocks, the majority of all ratings, by the way, the majority of all ratings and all stocks is a buy. So unless you're like a super duper buy, I'm not sure what the analyst is going to do to be able to come to the rescue, if you will, of these stocks.

[Peter Boockvar]

Steve.

[Tim Seymour]

Right, so, so they're not going to be able to come to the rescue, but you have to look at return on investment, the dollars that they're spending, are they going to get the money back? So that's been questioned. Why is Apple outperforming? Because they spent the least amount of money and they're JV with the opportunity instead of putting a massive amount of spend on the table. So I think Apple will, will continue to outperform. They'll continue to partner with, with people in AI and I think that's the best route to go. I don't see them changing that. We're hearing about rumors of the new CEO. I don't think there's going to be anything different.

[Brian Kelly]

I know today was rough. The market was rough. Mike Coe. I get it, I get it. But we got a P E ratio now in the NASDAQ 100. That's just over 20. Tim's point. The VIX still too high. Okay, Tim says still too high. What do you say Mike? Is this a market that now has value because of the declines?

[Mike Coe]

I think that if you take a look at just what rates have done, then the decline makes complete sense. So if you figure that the 10 year rate since the day first trading day before the war took place, basically 50 basis points, then you would expect in a move like that that the S and P should probably shave about two turns. So that's going to be just shy of 10%. And that's essentially what we've done. One thing I would quickly point out is if we're looking at names like Meta and we're looking at names like Microsoft, a lot of the damage that was done to those stocks actually took place before February 28th. I think Microsoft was down something like 26% from their 2025 highs to the last trading day in February. So there was already quite a lot of damage done in there. But you know, when you take a look at the valuations, you know, it hardly seems like a screaming buy to me. I mean the market feels heavy. We need to see some solution. Because right now the oil traffic alone, that decline in production of oil is probably 20 basis points per day of global GDP. You know, you figure 220 trillion of global GDP. You take that out, you know, $1 billion US a day. That's essentially what we're looking at in terms of the cut in oil production. It's going to have a ripple effect and it's going to affect multiples and it's going to affect people's appetite for risk.

[Guy Adami]

I just think we've been talking about how below the surface there was all this churning around and seriously a very difficult tape that wasn't necessarily manifesting on the, on the, on the index level. If you look at the triple cues, they're down 7.16% in the last seven sessions. This is a case where actually again the index hedges have actually more or less worked over the last week because in fact this is the place where the pain goes if you look at technical levels. And it's also interesting to me a couple of longtime bulls on the street on the, on the chart side of things, guys that have been great. Rich Ross for example, said that the break of the 200 day for him was something that actually really was time to reassess for a guy that is hung in there through some difficult tapes. So the technical damage is such that I think even folks who you know expect that there has to be at least a headline coming out of the administration that is trying to at least abate some of the negativity. And we know that some of those headlines just haven't been resonating with the market. I'm not sure it's a quick buy this opportunity. As much as people remember April and May, there is some technical damage out there. There is some certainty about what we should be doing with the multiple. Nobody knows what Fed policy is. People are everywhere from an emergency hike to no, absolutely nothing happens. And either we may even get back to one or two cuts this year. I mean that, that kind of uncertainty tells you you don't go by the market.

[Brian Kelly]

But that's it, right? What did Donald Rumsfeld say? The known knowns and the unknown unknowns or whatever that quote is.

[Steve Grasso]

You don't know what that.

[Brian Kelly]

I don't even know what I just said. So the point is I don't. To Tim's point, the market doesn't know anything. There are people that will come on respectfully to everybody and say well I think this and I think that that's right. That's great. We all think things but nobody knows how this is ultimately going to play out. But what we do know is that we got a 10 year at 4.42%. We also know that these big tech stocks began falling before the war began, long before. So I wonder is the war just sort of fuel on the fire? Believe so it's not the fire, is it?

[Steve Grasso]

I think it accelerated what was in motion already. I think at some point we were going to be here. What's happened over the last four weeks is just accelerated the move. Yeah. The bond market is a problem. I think a bigger problem to mentioned the vix VIX closing on the highs on a Friday into what I believe is a holiday shortened week next week. Is it telling you something? Number one? Number two, you know, the administration, listen, every administration is focused on the stock market. This one talks about it more than any administration in history. But they're laser focused on the bond market. So you guarantee they're going to try to say something over the next 48 hours to try to President Trump and some secretary, they're going to march people out to try to assuage your concerns. But the bond market genie is out of the bottle and it's diminishing marginal returns in terms of what they put out and what the market reacts.

[Guy Adami]

Also, you know, when you think about that 10 year and the move that it's made in this run, you compare it back to April. It was a move from 392 to 460 back in April which really forced seemingly the policy hand was we're not far from that type of a Delta move here on the 10 year and I think the rest of the world again look at JGB yields folks.

[Brian Kelly]

Delta move up meaning a 4, 7, 5.

[Guy Adami]

That difference, it's a great, it's almost as great of a difference. But, but you know, I know we talk about this a lot and I know a lot of people don't even know what to do with the news. I'm just telling you, you're starting to see the Japanese JGB market really pull out and widen spreads for, for, for really the rest of the world.

[Brian Kelly]

I want to talk about Japan, want to talk about interest rates and talk about all this stuff. But we actually have some news outside of the stock market that a lot of our viewers are going to be interested in. And it's not great news the rollover crash involving Tiger woods in Florida. MACKENZIE Sagalos now with the very latest on some breaking news on this story.

[Narrator/Announcer]

So Brian, we're hearing that golfing legend Tiger woods was arrested for a DUI after that rollover crash Friday on Jupiter Island. The Martin county sheriff weighing in saying that woods tried to pass a truck before the crash. There were no injuries but he will remain in jail. He's in custody right now for the mandated eight hour window.

[Brian Kelly]

Still hearing from the sheriff right now.

[Guy Adami]

I'll come back to you with more details.

[Brian Kelly]

Brian. Well, glad nobody apparently was injured in that. Mackenzie Sagalos, thank you very much. Let's bring in Peter Boockvar. Not to talk about Tiger woods obviously, but thinking about him, you get a DY or allegedly in the afternoon, that's a whole different thing. Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at one point BFG Wealth Partners. Go back now to the markets, Peter. You got a 10 year at 4.42% to 2 guys point. At Tim's point we're looking at Japan and their move because our bond market is not the only one that is moving around the world. I want to highlight that in fact in some cases other bond markets are moving a lot more aggressively. How much is that impacting the trade for stocks right now?

[Peter Boockvar]

I think it's definitely part of the equation. And also you have jumping yields in Europe. You have the UK 10 year gilt yield which closed above 5%. So it is a developed market, global bond sell off. And it's not just worries about inflation. Even before this there were growing concerns about debts and deficits. And what we're seeing now is only going to enhance that. Whether it's government spending on consumer subsidies to try to temper the impact of the energy crisis that's going on, whether it's going to be a huge ramp up of defense spending. There is again a major rethink an investor desire to take duration risk and the ripple effects are wide. We know we have a very overlevered global economy, particularly on the sovereign level but also at that corporate level. Going into the war we were worried about private credit. Well all these portfolio companies that were hoping for lower interest expense because of a cut in the fed funds rate, well that has disappeared. So funding costs going up affects everything.

[Tim Seymour]

So Peter, when you look at it, I look at it through a different prism extend out for me and I'm finding that I still keep circling back to lower rates. Now the bond market's doing what the bond market does around the Fed. So it's not reliant on that. But when you fast forward I do believe we're going to get back to a rate cutting environment for a couple of reasons. A if we slip into a recession they're going to cut rates. B if Powell moves from that seats from that seat, they're going to cut rates and see if they, if they try to make the mistake, which I think is a mistake of raising rates into a supply shock of oil, they're going to wind up pushing us into a recession and that winds up into a rate cutting cycle. Just comment on that for me.

[Peter Boockvar]

Well, a couple of things. The Fed's cut 175 basis points and the 10 year yield is higher than it was in the summer leading into those initial cuts in September 2024. So even if they cut doesn't mean that the rest of the curve is going to accommodate that. If the 10 year yield doesn't think that the Fed should be cutting because of inflation and we said debts and deficits, well, the Fed may cut the short term Fed funds rate to call it 3, but the 10 year yield may go to 5. Or we better off. Well, depending on where on the yield curve you're borrowing will determine that. So I don't just think that Fed rate cuts are going to solve the whole curve. And one key thing here, if the Fed the pain point in the economy is inflation. Companies right now are limiting their hiring because they're trying to cut costs, they're trying to preserve profit margins. So if the Fed starts to cut inflation in response to that weakening hiring, is our companies all of a sudden going to hire again? No, they're focused on cutting costs right now. So if inflation is the main pain point, which I believe that I think should be their main priority even if the economy slows down because I don't know what rate cuts are going to cure.

[Brian Kelly]

Well, also I will remind our audience hopefully I'm sure that Peter, that the Federal Reserve cut rates by half a percent, kind of a shock half a percent cut in September or whatever of 2024 when inflation was pretty much exactly the same as it is now. Although we know inflation is going to go up because the price of oil, I just want to throw that out there. What is the bond market seeing that the Federal Reserve is not communicating? Because the Federal Reserve hasn't said we're going to raise rates. Right. There's still talk of potential rate cuts and the bond market is pulling a honey badger in that it doesn't seem

[Peter Boockvar]

to care because I think the bond market is complicating central bank decision making because if I'm right that debts and deficits do matter, well then just analyzing the longer end of the yield curve is not just a growth and inflation thing. It is do we want to lend money to these over levered governments? Yeah, maybe they'll pay me back because they can print the money. But if they're going to do it in degraded currency, well then why do I want to own long term bonds? So I think that is a major thing here. And I say that because we're seeing the same bond market reaction in all the, all the many overlevered countries like Japan, like the UK, like France, and growingly like Germany whose debt to GDP ratio has quickly jumped from about 60% to 80%.

[Guy Adami]

Peter, I've got a real quick question. Do you buy Stocks, do you buy the market at the exact same multiple you did two months ago? We know it's cheaper. I'm just thinking about everything else. Should I be paying the same amount for the stock market? Isn't that the biggest issue?

[Peter Boockvar]

Well, two things in the very short term. CNN, CNN. Fear Greed Index down to 10. So we're getting close to a bounce. But to your point, the one thing with analyzing the multiple here is that that assumes no change in the east side. There has been no cuts in earnings estimates on the Street. So yeah, the stock market's lower. But should we assume that earnings are going to just continue on as is in light of everything that's going on? I don't think so. I think we're going to need some cut in earnings if this situation continues with the Gulf and if the economy obviously succumbs to this, which it seemingly is on a global basis, not so much yet in the US but it would be hard to avoid a slowdown

[Brian Kelly]

in the U.S. peter, always value your insight and time. Really appreciate it. Peter Buckvart, thank you very much Mike. Co your comment.

[Mike Coe]

Yeah, I mean one of the reasons you should expect the E to decline in all of this is because the impact of higher energy costs alone is probably going to be impactful. It hurts consumer spending, it's going to increase costs. So it's impossible to suggest that you're going to see if it's prolonged, you know, oil above $100 a barrel, which even in West Texas is where we closed today, that's going to have an impact and it won't be a positive one.

[Brian Kelly]

All right. In the meantime, President Trump expected to speak in Miami shortly as the conflict in the Middle east continues. In a social media post this afternoon, Trump said, quote, our military operation in Iran is going great. Eamon Javros has more and the latest from D.C. amen.

[Eamon Javros]

Hey Brian. Yeah, we are expecting to see the President later on this evening. Meantime, we did see Steve Witkoff, the chief negotiator for the administration speaking at this future investment forum, that's a Saudi backed forum in Miami and Witkoff gave them an update on where things stand and seemed to indicate that there may be face to face meetings between the US And Iranian sides. Here's what he said. Take a listen.

[Steve Witkoff]

We think there will be meetings this week. We're certainly hopeful for it.

[Guy Adami]

Ships are passing.

[Steve Witkoff]

That's a very, very good sign.

[Eamon Javros]

So an optimistic assessment there from Witkoff laying out the fact that he thinks there's gonna be meetings. He's seeing Some ships moving, giving a sense that negotiations are producing some results here. But then we also saw this social media post, Brian, just a couple of moments ago from the speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Take a look at what he had to say. He says they've spammed so much fake news trying to push energy prices down that the market's just numb now. Keep going. Nobody's buying it anymore. The real prices will show up anyway. Powerful, maybe, but smart. Not even close. Burned that fake news card way too early. So the Iranian speaker of the parliament there, Brian, more or less mocking the administration for what it's trying to do in terms of what he sees as jawboning energy markets back up. I don't know how your traders see that, but fascinating that we live in this world that we do now where we can see the Iranian side in the middle of a war mocking the administration for its posture on energy markets as energy markets try to digest all of that and make sense of it.

[Brian Kelly]

Eamon Javors, we're going to ask him that just now. Eamon. Eamon, thank you very much. I mean, I will say that like, you know, Iran, they could say what they want. They murder their own people. I'm not, I'm not exactly buying into everything that the speaker, look what I

[Guy Adami]

hear ahead of Iran's parliament, I don't even know who that is. You know, I'm not reading Iran tweets.

[Brian Kelly]

We don't know who's running the nation

[Guy Adami]

drawing major conclusions about this. So, yeah, look, there's, there's a lot of mockery of a lot of different things out on Twitter every day. And it's not surprising that it's easy to, to find that in this. But I think the most important thing is that we're getting statements from the White House, from the, at least from Washington to indicate progress. And the market is having trouble buying that quickly.

[Brian Kelly]

Oil Guy Adami, you've been on the story before the war began. I, Treasury Secretary Besson, we spoke to him in Paris a couple of weeks ago. He said, you know, oil markets, well supplied. Do you think it is? No. Okay.

[Steve Grasso]

The price on what market? The price. Well, it's a global, I mean, it's a global market. We can say we're energy independent. That's great. Except that we're, we're locked into a global oil price. So, yes, it's great that we're independent, but it doesn't mean anything in terms of where the price is going to go, number one. Number two, they can say what they want. I think this is going to last longer than anybody imagined in terms of the elevated price. But more importantly, the stocks were headed this way anyway. It's again, this has been an accelerant and a space that was going to get here at some point anyway.

[Tim Seymour]

Two different things. You know, the bifurcated market with Brent WTI landlocked versus seaborne. So they're going to move in general with each other. But we're not reliant on the seaborne market. We're reliant on the landlocked market. I also think when we were talking about news or Trump putting out something, the troops are heading that way now. And I think you're going to see a headline on Kharg island and that's going to change the dynamic.

[Brian Kelly]

Iran's primary export port, about 90 exports come from this one island offshore. It's inside the Persian Gulf.

[Tim Seymour]

That's the negotiating tactic right there. If they lose that, they lose everything.

[Brian Kelly]

Okay. All right. Coming up, bad news on the banks. Citigroup tumbling on some reports that, that it may be eyeing a smaller bank. But then Citigroup kind of saying that report maybe, dare we say, fake news guy Adami. Plus, we are eyeing some big action in Japan. Why? What happens in Japan matters to all of you. Don't go anywhere. Fast MONEY back in tune.

[Commercial Break Host]

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[Dr. Guy Winch]

Men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen, but most aren't getting the support they need. And that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.

[Brian Kelly]

All right, here's an interesting story. Syriza Citigroup dropping midday after a Bloomberg report came out that Citigroup is considering buying a US Regional bank. The company put out a statement to CNBC calling the headline quote Baseless speculation. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but baseless speculation. Citigroup ended the day down 4.5%. The whole market fell today. Other major banks also seeing losses while the KRE regional bank ETF was also down. So how do we read this Citigroup story? Do we care that they said it's baseless speculation or did they fall because interest rates rose and the whole market went smoke?

[Steve Grasso]

There's fire. There's something around there. So we'll find out later on what that is. I don't know. I don't think it's. Well, I shouldn't. Citibank went down roads before that sort of. They got too big for their own good. So I'm not certain this is the tack they want to take. With that said, banks XLF below the 200 day moving average now for quite some time. Bank of America huge double top valuations which people swore by now actually look expensive. Especially if the labor market is floundering and people forget that banks are as cyclical as any industry out there.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, to me I think whether this news is is real or not. If you are someone that's been investing in Citibank, part of the turnaround has been one of a bank that's a lot more efficient, a lot more focused, a lot less sprawling. And I'm not sure this is news you want to hear. So I think Gene Francis done a tremendous job. I'm a Shareholder here. I actually like the margin profile of the bank. I think today's action overall for markets were difficult. I think we're going to hear in two weeks from banks that it was actually a really solid quarter. It's about the outlook.

[Brian Kelly]

Yeah.

[Tim Seymour]

I think there is some truth to it. Banks need deposits. The more deposits the more they can lend.

[Brian Kelly]

And Citibank be getting small.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, but, but it's a problem, it's a problem with growing the deposits organically that they've hit a wall and they need more of them domestically. So I could see how this could be true. Regionals have always had a headwind and we've seen those headwinds on this desk. So I think if anything you'll create a bid at the most likely targets for these banks.

[Brian Kelly]

I guess the question is Mike co. If there are viewers and listeners who believe that interest rates are near a top the 10 year yield, whatever it may be and that we're going to go down, rates will go down when and if the Iran war ends, are banks an automatic buy if just the

[Mike Coe]

10 year rate goes down then no. But if both the twos and tens go down then actually I would say probably yes. I mean since this whole thing started, both are up about 50 basis points now. What we would like to see for financials is we would like to see the yield curve steepen a bit. We would like to see the inflation picture come in a little bit better than maybe those most recent PPI numbers reflect. We would like to see a slightly better labor picture. So there's a couple of things that have to go together. But you know, we are in a situation where there's a lot of sort of fear in the market. Things have been sold off fairly hard. I'm with Tim. I think that these companies have done a lot to sort of improve their operations. So if we can see a little bit of steepening and we see rates come in and we see oil prices come down, then I would start thinking about buying them.

[Guy Adami]

I mean the level of steepness of the yield curve is certainly something that's always interesting for banks. Net interest margins every tick higher on the 10 year is bad for banks. I'm sorry people, you know, if we get to 475 or 5 on the 10 year from a credit perspective, from a growth perspective, I think it changes the game a lot. So I think banks are most vulnerable to this move higher in rates. Yes. If you lower the short end, you get a steeper curve. Lower the short end. It also means things aren't we feel a little bit better on possibly where inflation is? It also means we might be cutting because there's growth concerns.

[Brian Kelly]

Okay, so we get the 10 and the two coming down. So does that automatically make higher homebuilders?

[Steve Grasso]

No.

[Brian Kelly]

A buy also?

[Steve Grasso]

No, because if they're coming down, maybe that suggests there's weakness in the economy, a labor market that's deteriorating. So it helps. It doesn't have the headwind that it historically has, but I don't think it mitigates the problems it's probably created the real lower in the first place.

[Brian Kelly]

All right, we are halfway down, which means there's half more to go. And here's what math here's what's coming up next.

[Commercial Break Host]

Big in Japan, the yen hitting a key level against the dollar today and Japanese stocks taking a leg lower. We'll dive into what the move means for markets stateside. Plus, the Chartmaster is taking on energy stocks as the group hits one record after another. The technical take from the oil patch next. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

[Dr. Guy Winch]

Men are struggling with their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen, but most aren't getting the support they need. And that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap, presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insights to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.

[Commercial Break Host]

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[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Brian Kelly]

promo All right, welcome back to Fast Money. We're going to talk about Japan, but bear with us because there's a real important point in this story. The yen hitting its worst level against the dollar since July of 2024, crossing back above 160. Meantime, Japanese bond yields rising across the curve for the country's two year rate, hitting its highest level since 1995. Okay, Tim, why. This is your baby. You and guys, why are we looking at Japan?

[Guy Adami]

Well, because Japan is, is a case of where monetary policy and central bank policy has been really an experiment in a bull market where you were able to essentially devalue the currency. They are at the center of the carry trade. Remember, a yen at 160to the dollar means there's a whole lot of people selling yen and investing in USD. I think there's an enormous amount of leverage in the system. First of all, it starts at home in Japan, but I think it's very much a part of what's been going on in terms of people being offsides, in terms of, you know, the printing presses that have been going on in the reserve currencies, of which the yen is one. So the fact that it's this out of control, these types of moves, this type of volatility and the biggest deepest markets is concerning.

[Steve Grasso]

I'll add to that the difference between now and the summer of 2024 is what you mentioned at the end. Bond yields now are significantly higher in Japan than they were then. And if you remember, it was a Thursday that a CPI report came in the United States. It was soft dollar yen, which was trading north of 160, immediately traded to 157, which is a huge move in a currency. And by August 2nd it was trading down about a buck 38 and the volatility index was north of 60. The unwind trade created a ripple effect that we felt for quite.

[Brian Kelly]

And I got to imagine Steve Grasso because they're huge owners of Treasury. If the Japanese need to raise money, they can do that by selling our bonds, raising yields. Japan plays a role in our markets, do they not? Of course.

[Tim Seymour]

And the higher their yields go, the more pressure, upward pressure on yields happen here. And that carry trade, if it's going to be a pace in which yields rise in Japan, that's going to continue the upward bias here because of that relationship, what you just said, when they were, when they were at zero, they would borrow that money there, come here and invest it here. And that unwind never really ends because it's always. It might, it might. Peter out in magnitude or velocity, I should say, but it's still there. And the higher their yields go, the

[Brian Kelly]

more upward price and a whole new prime minister. And we don't really know like our point at the top of the show, we don't really know what's going to happen. All right. We do know what's going to happen on this show. Coming up.

[Guy Adami]

Nice.

[Brian Kelly]

The Chartmaster tells you the technical tale of oil coaster Oil's roller coaster wild ride. It's Friday. I'm not perfect. You know what it means to not be perfect. Perfect Guy Dommy Every day I'm doing the best I can. We're back.

[Guy Adami]

No one's, no one's getting at you.

[Brian Kelly]

You need a heart before you to get bright.

[Commercial Break Host]

Just a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[Brian Kelly]

All right. If you're trying to find a little optimism, it is Friday. Stocks did end. Not on the low. I mean just off the low, but not quite on the low. It's about the best. I got the Dow joining the NASDAQ in correction territory, meaning it's down 10% from its high. Dow fell was 800 points today. The S&P down 1.7%. The Nasdaq down more than 2%. All three of the major indexes now down five weeks in a row. All right, energy by far the one bright spot, maybe the only bright spot of this market. It is by far the best performing sector in the S and P this year. The XLE. One of the big ETFs, up double digits since the Iran war began, up 40% year to date. Now up 14 weeks in a row. However, before you commit that hard earned cash to the xle, Chartmaster is here to say maybe things are getting a little bit tougher. Let's get out of Carter Worth worth charting for more. Carter, what are you seeing?

[Steve Witkoff]

Let's get right to it. We can look at the charts. We know this is a small sector. It's 4.2% of the S&P, up from 3 though of course, before this got going. But we're going to look at the XLE. This is of course an ETF that mirrors the S&P 500 energy sector itself. That spike, that huge move that took place, that is the issue where we're pricing in a lot. Let's put some lines in to annotate the current circumstance. So next chart. That's a textbook breakout. And yet the breakout has occurred. You can look at what a measured move is we have achieved that level. Now if you use the same chart, that red arrow is a judgment of course mine. Let's keep the same chart again and use a moving average just to make a point. We are farther above the 150 at any point in five years, in fact 10 years, 15 years one could say. Of course we are. Look at the fundamentals. Something's going on. But the issue is this, that the time to buy and be aggressive was before oil spiked. Now this is a final chart and it's important. This is relative performance despite all that's happened. This is what's happened to anyone who's been in energy relative to the S and P. It's a disaster. In fact this move, interestingly which you see has caused the relative performance to increase, improve, has simply left it at that well defined downtrend line in effect for the past five years. That is the last chart would just make this point. Generally the the energy stocks move before crude. Think about this. We know that oil was dead flat $65 a barrel for the entire month of February while the OIH and the axle were up 15% each. The energy shares move first. The commodity is now coming along from the news. The energy shares are ahead of the facts and I think it's time to reduce your exposure to energy shares.

[Brian Kelly]

Mike Co would you agree with that? The energy stocks gotten too hot too fast?

[Mike Coe]

Well, I mean the energy stocks have gone up a lot. They haven't gone up nearly as much as front month crude. But the reason for that is if you take a look at the futures curve, just go out five years and you're going to see that, you know, five year West Texas intermediate crude futures are probably trading around $64 a barrel. And what that tells you is that commodities market at least believes that what we are dealing with right now is a relatively short term issue. Now if it extends longer then that's going to change the picture. So the sooner this ends then the sooner I think that the rally essentially in the energy stocks that are tied to higher energy prices is going to last.

[Steve Grasso]

Guy Tommy, we had Peter Bocvar on the show earlier. If you listen to some of the things he said, he talked about where we are in terms of the bull bear ratio and the so the negativity out there is in like the bottom 10%. So if you think somehow there's going to be a bounce in the market, it's feasible to think it'll come at the expense of the energy sector. I will say this though. I do not think it's over by any stretch. I think a pullback has to be bought.

[Brian Kelly]

What's that? Over the energy stock run?

[Steve Grasso]

Yes. Yes, sir.

[Brian Kelly]

Why not?

[Steve Grasso]

Because I think the commodity is what it is. The valuation still makes sense. These are companies that have better balance sheets, they're better levered, they're better run, better operated than they've ever been.

[Tim Seymour]

I don't disagree with any of that. I think you could have another headline, a one one off headline that spikes oil again. But I do believe that oil markets as a whole return to the state that they were in before the supply shock happened. We were in an oversupplied state of oil. I think we returned to that. I think oil drops down. Maybe there's going to be a premium, a higher premium than there was before oil, but I think it comes down exponentially from where it is now.

[Guy Adami]

I think we're at a place where at least the analyst community has to raise their input prices on oil. And I don't think the market has totally priced that in. I also think that the medium term price of crude, and I mean out in terms of the structure of the futures contracts has to go higher. I think based upon infrastructure and some of the dynamics we see, people won't forget about this. And I mean traders and I mean the fundamental story. I think Steve's right. I mean the world will be a wash in oil at some point, but I think it's going to be some time before we get back to that.

[Brian Kelly]

So what we. Tim, what we talked about at the Syraway conference earlier this week in Houston, talk to a lot of people on and off the record is that is this going to reset the price level of oil? We're at 65 bucks before we came into the war. No one's saying maybe we're going to be at 102 forever.

[Guy Adami]

No.

[Brian Kelly]

But is the new 6580 and that's just direct, a direct benefit to the earnings of these companies.

[Guy Adami]

Without question. And it's for what Guy said. And I would also just get back to the dynamic of $65 oil. And 2025 was a sweet spot for the US consumer and something that's going to be very difficult to find again in terms of the dynamics of what that meant as a tailwind for consumption trends. And it was a deflator for the other parts of the inflation.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, good stuff.

[Brian Kelly]

And Carter Worth, thank you. Very timely chart on the hottest sector of the market by far. Have a great weekend. All right, coming up. Oh, bitcoin. Bummer. The crypto closing back under 65,000. How much lower could bitcoin go? Or is there a big bounce back coming? We're back. Two minutes. Everything was down today, including bitcoin. Bitcoin down over 3%. Prices back below around. Where are they now? 66076. I don't say close because bitcoin, Steve Grasso never really closes. But it's low, it's down half from its highs.

[Tim Seymour]

Trade like a rubber, trading like a risk asset sometimes. On again, off again. I do believe that ETFs have changed the buyer of bitcoin. If you go to a more institutional buyer or a less. How do you want to.

[Steve Grasso]

Hodler.

[Peter Boockvar]

Maybe.

[Tim Seymour]

Maybe that's the right way to say it. You're going to get people that are influenced by the volatility in the marketplace and don't have as strong hands. But I do believe that headline on Fannie Mae accepting crypto backed mortgages. Huge tailwind for crypto.

[Brian Kelly]

Well, it didn't help though.

[Tim Seymour]

It doesn't matter. Did you know about the headline? You knew because you're in the business. I think most people don't and it's just starting now.

[Brian Kelly]

I actually did not.

[Tim Seymour]

And if Fannie Mae. Thank you and thank you for being honest. And if Fannie Mae legitimizes it, then the rest follows suit. And if it's a real store of value and a hold of value that will ripple through the market markets.

[Guy Adami]

Bitcoin's not a safety source. Easy for me to say. Maybe it's just because it's proven to be just so not what it was. Meanwhile, gold had a nice bounce today and the metal continues to outperform the miners, which I think it will in the near term.

[Steve Grasso]

You said earlier about 37 seconds ago that bitcoin never closes. You said that. Is that true, sir?

[Brian Kelly]

Yes.

[Steve Grasso]

Then how is Bitcoin down 27?

[Brian Kelly]

I don't know. I don't know.

[Steve Grasso]

It's a great question. The mark blows your mind.

[Brian Kelly]

What critical. Critical price point for gold right here, isn't it?

[Steve Grasso]

Technically it went right.

[Brian Kelly]

Technically.

[Tim Seymour]

Moving average right there.

[Brian Kelly]

Stopped on it. Sitting right there. Hodlers, by the way, frequently found in the hill country of Switzerland.

[Tim Seymour]

Love them.

[Brian Kelly]

Big with cough drops. Oh, that's right.

[Peter Boockvar]

Coming up.

[Brian Kelly]

Just sell it. Talk Nike. Coming up. All right. Nike will headline next week's earnings calendar. The fiscal third quarter result coming out on Tuesday. They're on kind of an odd year. Sportswear stock desperate to get off the sideline. Shares slumping toward the lowest level in nearly a decade. Nike off 17% in just a month. What are options traders saying on on Nike, Tim, you got to take on Nike.

[Guy Adami]

Well, my view is that Elliot Hill has had plenty of time to at least be a guy who could show initiative here. I think the innovation is there. I believe in Nike at this level. I don't know what the catalyst is for the turn and I frankly, I'm not terribly bullish in terms of the macro for athleisure and apparel and trainers as they call them. Guy across the pond. I actually would be a seller of Onon. I would be a seller of Lulu. I would be a seller of Deckers and guys Birkenstock.

[Brian Kelly]

I need to apologize to the entire universe because when it said options Action it was automatically Mike Coe being a fill in.

[Guy Adami]

I don't know why you went to

[Brian Kelly]

me, but I think Mike Cohen is punishment. I should never do this show.

[Steve Grasso]

Fill in. Host, you've been doing this like for 10 years.

[Brian Kelly]

Mike Co what you think about Nike?

[Mike Coe]

I'm pretty sure you've hosted Options Action too well. Right now the options market is implying a movement of almost 9% after they report earnings. And that's substantially higher than the 6% or so that the company historically has averaged. The most active contracts that expire at the end of next week are the 45 strike puts. We saw about 1600 total trade by the end of the day for an average price of about 30 cents per contract. So buyers of those are obviously betting that that nearly 9% move might be potentially to the downside. I will say though that overall the options volumes have seen slightly more calls trading than puts over the course of the last 20 days. So maybe people are starting to weigh back in and think that maybe it could catch a bounce here. But it is cheaper. It's not yet cheap.

[Brian Kelly]

Cheaper, not yet cheap. And Mike Co, I got to say, you're the only one I like. You are a true gentleman. Thanks, Mike. Thank you. That was Options Action with Mike Coe. Up next, your final trades ever. All right, Mike Cope kickoff final trades for us please. Yeah, sure.

[Mike Coe]

With the Vix above 31 options have become very expensive. So if you're going to hedge, don't just buy puts outright. Use narrow out of the money. Put spreads in something like spy for your tail.

[Guy Adami]

Tim, with or without Warren, defensive positioning. The move in BTI British Tobacco I think is one warranted. I am long in ido, Steve.

[Tim Seymour]

The best big pharma name is Merck and they're doing a whole lot to fill that void of key trudeau when it goes off patent protection.

[Steve Grasso]

Big win yesterday at Shay in front

[Guy Adami]

of a sparse why you got I mean, it was packed.

[Peter Boockvar]

Dude, you better hope that that Halliburton, Brian Halliburton.

[Brian Kelly]

Halliburton. All right guys. Thank you everybody for watching Fast Money. Have a great weekend. I mean, a great weekend. Mad Money starts now.

[Narrator/Announcer]

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Snoring Gasping during sleep?

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