← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Tesla Reports Results… And Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong On Crypto Legislation 10/22/25
00:43:37
Tesla on the move as the EV maker reports results. The reaction to the report, and how the company is faring as competition increases. Plus Netflix lower after its report, IBM & Southwest air on the move after-hours, and what Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is hearing from lawmakers as the crypto space eyes digital asset legislation. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Tesla shares in focus after the company's latest report. The EV maker missing profit estimates but its first quarter of rising sales this year. We will dive into all the details coming up in crypto on the Hill. We'll talk to the CEO of Coinbase, Brian Armstrong as the industry looks to reignite talks for legislation this year. Plus a big reversal in GE Vernova post earnings. Netflix breaches a key support level after its latest results. And the meme craze has found a new target in beyond meat. But are there other meme names that could get caught up in this rush? Well head to the options pits to find out. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami and Dan Nathan out in San Francisco. Stocks closing well off the lows of the day but still finishing the day in the red. The tech heavy NASDAQ down almost a percent. Semi seeing particular weakness. Every stock but one in the SMH chip ETF was down today. Qualcomm the only winner. We'll get more on that in a few minutes. But we start off with Tesla. The shares right now are down by about 1 1/2% after the EV maker beat Wall street revenue estimates but miss on its eps. Seems Philippe's got all the details.
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B
Phil and Melissa. The real catalyst for this stock is likely to come in about 25 minutes. That's when we get the Tesla conference call with analysts. That's when we hear from Elon Musk and that's usually what moves shares after hours. Let's go over the Q3 results, as you mentioned, they missed on the bottom line, earning 50 cents, the street was expecting 55 cents a share. Revenue was better than expected. Not a surprise given the fact that you had strong deliveries in the third quarter. 28.1 billion versus 26.36 billion was the analyst estimate. Some of the numbers within the numbers for the quarter. For Tesla, free cash flow was up 46%. And then when you look at the regular regulatory credit revenue, this has been a driver to the bottom line. Almost all of it filters down to the bottom line. Well, guess what, CAFE standards are going away, so is the demand for those credits. That revenue was down 43%. Automotive revenue overall, given the increased deliveries, up 6%. But net income was down 37%. As you take a look at shares of Tesla, remember the call is where we'll get more details. But one thing they do say in the outlook in the earnings report is that cybercab, Tesla, semi production, both are on target for beginning production next year. Not sure how much that's going to drive the bottom line, but that's really the only piece of news aside from the numbers that was inside the report. Melissa, again, it's the conference call in about 25 minutes that people will be focused on.
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A
Yep, Phil, keep us posted. Phil LeBeau, the stock is up about 35% since its last quarter. So it has every reason to want to sell off in the after hour session. Yet it's down less than 2% at this point in time. Although more can come.
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B
Who knows the markets. Phil just said the market is waiting for the conference call, which is fin. Again, if this, we've had this conversation, if this was just valued as an automobile company, it's not a great quarter yet. Record revenue, I get it. And the free cash flow, $4 billion, good for them. Then you look at the margins, you know, you back out. Basically regulatory credits, and it's below 15 and a half percent, which is worse than the street was looking for. So that business has been in decline regardless of what you want to say about deliveries and stuff. I mean, it's a business that is reverting to the mean now. People get excited about other things, which is why I don't think the stock is as low as should be on the back of the quarter. We'll see what they say. It's the promise of everything else that's going to drive the stock.
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A
And they did say in the shareholder deck that Optimus lines are being installed right now. Who knows what the time frame is on that. And Whether or not it will ever contribute to revenue or at what point it will, will.
- [04:41]
B
But it's one of those stories along with robots that people want to hear. And so Optimus, ahead of volume production next year is, is something that's there. The Robotaxi story is alive and well. The, the energy storage story is a massive pickup over to Q. I think they are 2.4 billion. They just printed 3.4 billion. I mean it's 12, 13% of the revenue base. It's not insignificant. And it's also one of these stories that is part of the entire mosaic. Now you may sound like, hey, Tim, sounds somewhat bullish here on Tesla. No, I'm not. I don't think I'm. It's impressive, the price action, as we've just said, after the move, it's had stocks effectively, you know, 2.2 times up over that April low. But I think you are not chasing this one. That was a third person question. That's why Even, even better time I've ever done that. First time Tim's ever done that. So. So there's a lot of other bets here and the stock seems to be the most expensive that has ever been on a P E ratio. But you're paying for the other bets. You're paying for, as Tim said, the robots, the Cyber Taxi. For me, it looks a little double toppy for me. If you expand that chart back a year, if you look at it just on other bets, I think you're probably too early for those other bets as you always are with Tesla. I'd probably stay away, let the smoke clear and see when the other bets actually develop into something that's actually revenue based.
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A
Right. Dan, I want to get your take on Tesla, but it's interesting because today GM had a tech day in New York City and they unveiled eyes off driving, which is like a competitor full self driving. And you got to wonder, you know, at this point, you take a look at the offerings in terms of investments in auto land and there are other ways to play this aside from Tesla at this point, if you believe in self driving vehicles.
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B
Yeah, I mean, you know, here's the good news, right. So I guess one of the notes in that presentation was that all of Tesla's cars right now are capable of, of full self driving. Right. It hasn't been approved yet. It is still supervised full self driving. And there's going to be a lot of competition when they finally get to volume production of the Cyber Taxi. So that's one of the big things we expect to hear about today. I think every time Elon has the opportunity, he does that. You know, you see the mention of Optimus, but again I'm here in San Francisco, there are 800 Waymos or maybe more on the streets there. This is going to be a hard one to catch up to in the near term. Right. And I'm not telling you that Waymo is making money out here too, but this is going to be a loss leader for some time. And then when you think about the cars that they actually make, that pull forward right there. Guy just mentioned those auto gross margins, they're not great. Right. So the idea of competition here in the US well it's coming despite the fact that GM has pulled back a bit. But when you think about their market share here it's below 40%. In China it's below, I don't know, it's probably mid single digits. In Europe it's below 10%. So they're not growing this business. And at a time when there's a lot of competition coming. And the last thing I'll just say about this free cash flow, which is really one of the only things that stuck out that was, I don't know, particularly positive. I mean capex was down 37% year over year. If you think that they're focused on the future with robots and Cybertaxi and I wouldn't you expect Capex to be higher. So you know, they might have been playing some games on the, on the free cash flow side.
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A
All right, the stock is down again 1.8% right now. For more on the quarter, Fast money friend Gene Munser joins us with his reaction. Gene, what's your take?
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B
Melissa, in the outlook section that really jumped out to me was that they are well funded and have liquidity $41 billion in cash, up 4 billion sequentially. Everything that we're talking about today is.
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A
Accurate that the investment case for Tesla.
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B
Is all about on what's to come. And the reality is that in order for that future to become a reality you have to have a lot of.
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A
Money to do that. That $41 billion compares to GM and.
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B
Ford each have about 23 billion. So that was one of my takeaways that they've got a lot of money.
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A
To see this forward.
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B
There were a couple negatives that I picked up on. One was relative to the FSD miles driven. So they don't give the exact number.
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A
But they give a chart and you.
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B
Can kind of angle into what it was driven. The incremental miles are about 1.1 billion in September. That's the same as what it was in June. It was 0.7 billion in March. So you would, if that was at.
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A
Some inflection point, you would start to.
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B
See that ramping a little bit more. And last, I think it's 90% chance that that more affordable vehicle is already out. It's the Model y and Model 3 based on some language in the deck. We'll hear more on the call. But overall, Melissa, the biggest takeaway is.
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A
This is still a story about do.
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B
You believe and they got plenty of cash to see that future forward.
- [09:28]
A
You though think the stock is going to hover around where it is for the rest of the year, right?
- [09:34]
B
Not necessarily. I mean it comes down to still waiting for these break points. And I think one of the beautiful things about investing in Tesla is that the community and the investing community is so conditioned for misses when it comes to Elon and expectations. It is. You know, they said FSD in some.
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A
Regions by the end of this year that's probably not going to happen.
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B
But yet if they do pull one, if one of these things start to break in a direction by the end of the year, for example, more cities have talked about two potentially additional 10.
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A
Cities with robo Taxi.
- [10:07]
B
That's going to be the lever to the stock. I think it comes down to a very simple question, is do you believe that Tesla is a pole position with physical AI and if that is the case, you just need to own it because it's hard to predict when these moments are going to pop out. Gene. Tim, so right. You believe and 41 billion is. Seems like of all the numbers that they've reported today, you don't care about gross margin, you care about they have the ammunition to do whatever it takes. What does that make the stock worth today? And I know that's not fair. And again, a DCF is definitely not something I think you're trying to attach it with. I appreciate where you are on the upside and why I don't want to be too cute, but. But if someone's looking at the stock today and saying what's it worth? Can you throw a number on that? So you have to look at it where the growth is going to be. And right now it's trading at about.
- [10:57]
A
A 13 revenue multiple. So compare that.
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B
Usually it's been kind of around where Apple's at. Apple's at a 9 revenue multiple. And so it's an order of magnitude ahead of where that's at. And so the simple takeaway is that if you use like traditional ways of thinking about stock and evaluation. This is overvalued. If you take a perspective that they're going to have a breakout and the.
- [11:19]
A
Rest of the companies.
- [11:19]
B
I actually think that the GM news today was affirming of Tesla's lead on autonomy. But if you take that, you can have multiple years of high growth, 30, 40% growth. And so the simple answer is that this is like we've been in unchartered.
- [11:34]
A
Territory with this stock for a couple years.
- [11:35]
B
We continue to be in that. And no, there is, there's not historical or comp. Group valuation support. But yes there is when you think about the moment we're in when it comes to tech.
- [11:48]
A
Gene, thank you. We will check back in with you a little bit later on after the call kicks off. Again, we're about 21 minutes, 20 minutes away from that call starting. Remember also November 6th is the annual meeting.
- [11:58]
B
Yeah.
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A
I don't know if anybody wants to play it on the short side. If you're going to do so, not before that meeting. I mean that's the floor.
- [12:04]
B
And there's also. They have to meet certain sales in cars too. Right. They want 20 million sales in 10 years. Are they going to be able to do 500,000 a quarter so that they could meet, meet that barometer? I'm not sure they can do that. So we were all forgetting about car sales. It's only going to become more tough going forward for Tesla.
- [12:25]
A
It only works if there is car. I mean, if there are car sales, I mean that the whole, you know, flywheel. Right?
- [12:31]
B
Yes, 100%. We can say the things we talked about for the last 11 minutes doesn't matter in the broad scope of things. And in my opinion, if you want to be bullish in Tesla is because his $1 trillion pay package, one of the metrics is stock price. So you want to say, you know what, he's incentivized to watch this thing go higher. That to me is the overriding reason. But just on. Listen, Jean just said it. It's trading at 13 times revenue. Ish. Right. Think about this. They're going to do only five. I'll round up to $6 billion in net income against that 110 billion. I mean that's an extraordinarily expensive company just on those two metrics alone.
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A
All right, let's turn to the broader markets in the meantime. Stocks closing firmly lower but off the worst levels. The tech heavy NASDAQ leading the losses down 9 of a percent for its second strike session. In the red, the S and P lower by half a percent while the Dow shed 330 points. Both those indices snapping three day winning streaks. Treasury Secretary Scott Basin confirming earlier reports that the Trump administration may impose new restrictions on exports of to China of goods containing US software move that could impact everything from laptops to jet engines. Tech among the worst performing S and P sectors today, The VanEck Semi ETF and iShares software ETF hit particularly hard. I think the headline numbers don't really tell the story of the markets today. I mean, intraday you saw semiconductors down as much as 4%, you saw the Vix spike higher by about 15 and a half percent midday and then it all sort of settled out. Dan, I'm wondering what you, what you made of it.
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B
Yeah, I mean these headlines back and forth between China and Besson or whoever else is representing the Chinese in the US here, they just seem to be, you know, a bit of a pretzel here. Just kind of getting twisted around day to day. And I just don't think that's a way to trade the market I suspect will find, you know, some sort of solution when it comes to, you know, our tech. But you know, one of the things I think is worth noting is just some of the advancements that the Chinese are making and it's being reported, it seems like on a daily basis on the chip side to kind of get away from Nvidia chips in that ecosystem. So it seems to be more of the same as it relates to semis. Semis seem to be right in the middle of these trade talks. Obviously on the other side of it is Rare Earth. All the other stuff about software and the like, it's a bit of a side show if you just look at some of the names and where their exposure is, at least from where I'm thinking about it. So again, I think you have to keep a closer eye on what China's doing as opposed to what we're doing over here as it relates to our semis. If tech fails, it's like the flywheel within the market. Right. If tech fails is 30% of the overall market. Semis were responsible for most of the move up in the overall market over the last five years. If they fail, the market doesn't work. Yeah, and semis are up 35% since June relative to the S and P. So there's room for a pullback. But what's fascinating about this market and it's part of what has people troubled and you haven't seen the S And P trade, you haven't seen the NASDAQ trade, excuse me, the semiconductor, the stocks index trade down to the 200 through the 200. Otherwise in April going all the way back to the bottom of the market back at the CPI of 22. But I just feel that the extraordinary announcements and the move in the market cap in the top six names in tech are something that are supposed to give something back. Now we were talking on our call today about Oracle. I mean that move in Oracle is continuing to make a lower low. Dan talked about it filling in that gap. Well, I mean so far heading in that direction. It's just a question of do you think that the biggest names in tech that have had everything to do with the market staying higher can continue to give you these announcements? I look at the volatility index today, you said it. There's no, in terms of what we've seen over the last year, there's no reason for the VIX to be trading 21. Today the S&P was down half of 1%. Maybe at its worst case, worst point today was down a percent. I mean that justified the move of that magnitude. And we've been talking about this. There's definitely something going on below the surface in the volatility index. I do think volume is going to be a story for the remainder of the year. And I think today, and we saw it the day that the VIX spiked up to 28. Those to me are sort of warning signs.
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A
And then you have curious trades also. I mean Treasuries, the 10 year yield is firmly below 4% at this point, 3.95. We've got gold continuing its decline here. I mean there are a lot of other little pieces here that fit into this market mosaic that really paint a picture of it seems like unease, a desire to take some froth off or to take some winners off the table.
- [17:03]
B
Why not? I mean, you know, I mean the fever is broken is ultimately a good thing. As someone that's bullish gold and likes this move because it allows me to actually either allocate some more, allocate some more clients into it without feeling up chasing it. I mean there's nothing about the gold trade that's changed. What's changed is that actually the FOMO related to gold really led to margin buying, that's led to oversold conditions on the way down. Having said that, gold could probably check lower. It doesn't change anything. The fact that we have a market that has had a few sectors, I mean whether it has been digital Quantum AI announcements. I mean, what's going on for the last six weeks hasn't been reality. If we want to see a nice rally. And I think by the way, that rally is through Thanksgiving, not through year end. I think we're probably right around the corner.
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A
All right, meantime, let's get to Netflix shares because Those were down 10% after missing Q3 earnings estimates last night. Its biggest drop since April of 2020 22. The streaming giant citing an ongoing battle with Brazilian tax authorities is the reason for the miss. At its lows, Netflix traded below its 200 day moving average for the first time in more than two years. Clearly it's more than a Brazilian tax dispute that's got the stock down 10%. Guys.
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B
Yeah, the Warner Bro, we talked about it last night. It's definitely not that because if you back it out, it was actually a good quarter. To me, what it comes down to is growth. You're probably saturated in the United States. I think we all agree with that. People are now looking at valuation, but it's the Warner Brothers headline, whether it's real or not. The fact that there's news out that Netflix is thinking about a deal that would be worth somewhere between 55 and 70 billion dollars suggests that they might feel it necessary to grow by acquisition. The market's not going to reward them for that. We said it last night, if it broke a certain level, 1050 was the prior all time high in February. That's where it appears to be going. And it's been a declining trend line since June. So technically the setup doesn't look great. And the fact that they're not giving out sub numbers, I know they've changed to a more mature company. What happens when you change to a more mature company? You don't have explosive growth anymore. And people have been paying for explosive growth. Now I do believe ad dollars can come in and they could ratchet that up. But I would not be buying the stock right here. I wait for a break below a thousand, well, more. I don't feel like I need to go out and buy Netflix here. I think the wide BD headlines, I mean there's, there's a lot of people definitely checking a look at these assets. I think there's a lot of media assets in play and I think ultimately it's positive for Disney, it's probably positive for Paramount sky, it's probably positive for wbd. I might be worried about as a Netflix shareholder that their growth has been totally organic and they haven't needed to go out and make a big purchase. Is that a reason? Possibly. I think it's multiple. I think it's. You've come a long way. I think we're waiting for the announcement. 26 I think we need a little bit more of a vision on the Runway other than the current content slate.
- [19:46]
A
I understand that Netflix expressed interest in wbd, but it just doesn't make any sense in terms of what it's done in the past and its price discipline down. That it would actually reach for these assets of the decline of 10% was based on this idea that Netflix would overpay for some sort of asset from wbd. I mean, I don't know. That seems a little bit uncharacteristic, let's say very uncaring.
- [20:08]
B
Listen, this would be one of the things that would mark a significant change in the trajectory of Netflix's business and their strategy. I remember going back 12, 13 years and we spent a lot of time on the desk just kind of debating this full streaming sort of move and the original content and the negative free cash flow that was associated with it. And this is one of the best performing stocks in the last 10, 12 years in the entire S&P 500, I think, especially as it relates to Mega Cap. So if they were to go out and bid for these assets and take on all of that debt and the infrastructure that exists there and just the disparate amount like, or just the sort of content they have, you can say, well, this is made, that catalog is made for a platform like Netflix, but it would just signal something that I think a lot of investors haven't heard in a long time and really would not want to hear about going forward.
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A
Coming up, more after hours action to bring you shares of IBM on the move after reporting results and numbers from the Fed quarter next. And you won't want to miss our conversation with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, fresh off his discussions with lawmakers on the next move in crypto legislation. What he is hearing in D.C. when fast money returns back into this episode.
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- [23:27]
B
Eamonna Melissa, that meeting is ongoing right now in the Oval Office, but the president just told reporters that he is going to meet with Xi Jinping in South Korea next week. You remember yesterday he had raised some eyebrows by suggesting, well, maybe that meeting could fall through. Might not happen. People get upset. If there is tensions. Today though, it sounds like this meeting is very much on. Here's what he said. In South Korea, I'll be meeting with President Xi of China. Well, a pretty long meeting scheduled. We can work out a lot of our questions and our doubts and our tremendous assets together.
- [24:02]
A
So we look forward to that.
- [24:04]
B
I think something will work out. We have a very good relationship, but that'll be a big one. So the president there alluding to some doubts and some concerns on both sides, saying that he's optimistic that they'll be able to work those out. And you know that the, the market's been very much focused on this meeting because if there is going to be an overall trade deal between these two countries, the, the assessment is sort of on both sides of the Pacific that there's no way that could really happen without those two leaders in the room together to do the final deal making and do the final handshake. The President said there that it's going to be a fairly long meeting on the schedule. We don't know exactly when that's going to take place. But of course, oftentimes meetings with the Chinese leader do have to be pretty long because of the translation back and forth from both sides. They want to make sure each side understands each other very clearly. So going back and forth on that can drag those meetings out a little bit longer than some of the other meetings that the President might do.
- [25:00]
A
Melissa all right, Amen. Thank you. Amen. Javers, let's move on to IBM. We got an earnings alert here. Legacy tech giant lower despite a top and bottom line beat. Sima Modi is here on set. She's been on the call. She's got the latest. Hey, Sima. Melissa this is a trend now that we're seeing top and bottom line beat even the company raising their revenue guidance to more than 5% up from, quote, at least 5% free cash flow up 14 billion, up from 13.5 billion. But when you dig into the performance of each business, the story is a bit more mixed. Take software for example, which makes up nearly 50% of their business, came in line with street expectations after last quarter's miss. And JP Morgan analyst Brian Essex did say software would be the primary driver of the stock compared to other segments like consulting and infrastructure. Perhaps that's what is weighing on the stock right now. Now, IBM's Red Hat business did experience a slight tick down in the third quarter from 14 to 12% quarter on quarter. I spoke to IBM CFO Jim Kavanaugh who didn't see that as concerning. He actually called out IBM's aid AI book to business, which jumped to 9.5 billion, up 50% quarter on quarter. He says IBM is continuing to help enterprise clients speed up their productivity using this technology. Now, even with the big run up we've seen in shares of IBM over the past couple of months, only 8 buy ratings across Wall street, which I found really interesting. Melissa Seema, thank you. Sima Modi, are you in IBM?
- [26:26]
B
I'm not, I'm not in it right now and I would wait. I think you actually see a pullback down around the 240 range. Their AI, their, the hybrid cloud. They are Watson, they were the original AI. They're in quantum time. Tremendous amount of reasons to buy the stock. But I would wait. It serially pulls back at least 20% pretty regularly. I would wait for that pullback. Well, the stock's been a beast and they're almost a victim of their own guidance here. I mean they guided going into this number, the macro was excellent. They guided on a software reacceleration and now we're looking at that for the second half of the year. SEMA as reported said, you know, software was kind of weak, at least relative to expectations. The question for me is do you pay 27 times for IBM when you can buy Microsoft at 31 times? And I think you don't. I'm not saying it's a.
- [27:15]
A
Would you rather. But it could be.
- [27:18]
B
I'll let you do that.
- [27:19]
A
You're thinking along my line because if you look at Alphabet, I mean Alphabet, similar, sort of multiple. And you can, if you want a quantum play, for instance, why wouldn't you go to an Alphabet with the Willow Chip developer that they blogged about today? I mean would you go IBM or would you go.
- [27:34]
B
I'm champing at the bit. That's the correct terminology. Not chomping, not chomping, not chomping. Why are you yelling at me?
- [27:40]
A
I'm not yelling.
- [27:42]
B
I'll play the game correctly. I'll go the IBM route. And they are, listen, they are a victim of their own success without question. And Steve, you know, maybe we get to 240. I'm not sure I'll say this. Yeah, software in line, that's what people are focused on across the board though if you mix it all together, margins much better than expected. And this, you've said it and we've talked about it. I think this was the I in one of Sandy Canold's anagrams. What do they call those things?
- [28:10]
A
Acronyms?
- [28:11]
B
Acronyms. Right. I don't know. When it was squid. Squid, anyway, Swift, whatever. Sandy, don't yell at me. I'm trying to do a TV show. Anyway, I like IBM. I think the quarter was fine. I think margins are good. I think they're operating really well.
- [28:23]
A
Voices in your head. Coming up, more after hours action. Southwest Las Vegas Sands, LAM Research and Alcoa all in the mood. The numbers out of the quarters and all the action from this morning's reports as well. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ marketsite in Times Square. Back right after this. The heaviest metal credit card of all.
- [28:50]
B
Time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very.
- [28:56]
A
Same tungsten that forged the international space.
- [28:59]
B
Station and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move, but the real power move having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx the new power move and now a next level moment from ATT Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
- [29:49]
A
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks dropping as investors digested the latest batch of earnings. The Dow and S and P both snapping three day winning streaks and the NASDAQ leading the losses down nearly 1%. Some morning earnings action catching our eye. Shares of AT&T 2% lower after missing Q3 revenue estimates. The company though did add more wireless subscribers than expected. GE Vernova dropping about 2% as well. The stock had been up more than 4% after the company topped EPS and revenue expectations and said orders were up 55%. Shares reversed sharply midday but closed well off the lows. Shares of Moderna lower after hours. The company saying it will discontinue development of its experimental CMV vaccine which aims to treat a virus which is a common cause of birth defects after a late stage trial failure. And some more earnings movers. Southwest Air, Las Vegas Sands, LAM Research all higher as the company all beat companies all beat expectations at the top of the bottom lines. Alcoa though lower after missing revenue estimates. I always think of you Tim, when I think because that was my girl.
- [30:49]
B
That was my girl. She let off earnings season and it was a very important company just for that reason in addition to it being my girl. I tell you what, I think the story in the specialty metals part of the business is the more important part of it. I would just talk more of the earnings that that either were trading from yesterday or some of the names you mentioned. Even GE Vernova. Tough day for a stock that's really been a monster. But the industrial names that we're trading that have reported over the last couple of days largely I think have traded very well. And it's a ratification of a margin profile and the resilience of their business in the face of difficult macro. I like industrials here. Remember industrials had led the market higher all year.
- [31:28]
A
Coming up, crypto on the Hill. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joins us next to lay out what he heard from lawmakers today after their discussions on long awaited crypto legislation. The details from Fast MONEY Returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Crypto leaders on Capitol Hill today to press for legislation that would create clear rules for the industry. A recent Democratic proposal brought bipartisan negotiations to a sudden halt earlier this month. CNBC's Emily Wilkins joins us with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong for their latest development. Emily. Hey, Melissa and Brian, thank you so much for being here with us. You know, before today you had Chairman Tim Scott said, hey, Democrats need to give a date to mark up this market structure bill. He said the same after your meeting. Democrats, though, are still saying they need a bipartisan draft to move forward. Did anything change after today?
- [32:20]
B
Yeah, well, we had great meetings with the Democrats on, in the Senate and on the Republican side today. And the good news is that there is strong bipartisan support and will to get this market structure legislation done. It's important for America and the 50 million Americans who've used crypto want to see it get done. And so one date we heard floated was let's try to get this markup done before Thanksgiving. I think that there's 90% of the issues are already aligned on and agreed and there's draft text going back and forth. A lot of great cross functional collaboration happening. That last 10% are the remaining issues and everyone committed to get in the room together and work it out and hopefully we'll see some draft text or get it out of committee by Thanksgiving.
- [32:59]
A
And I know that the last time that there was some leaked draft text from Democrats that caused a big stir in the crypto community, a lot of concerns about more regulations on the decentralized finance community. Did you talk with Democrats about that today and what were your takeaways on that?
- [33:14]
B
Yeah, that did come up in our meeting with Senate Democrats and I think they communicated to us that that was not a serious proposal. It got leaked somehow. You know, there's political things happening behind the scenes, of course, always. But what that issue really brought up this idea of DeFi. And we believe that it's important to preserve DEFI as a source of innovation in this technology. The centralized players in crypto like Coinbase that are custodians and exchanges, we should be Regulated, don't regulate the protocols themselves. Those are something that's decentralized. Kind of like how data is shared over the Internet or the telephone networks. You know, you don't want to pull those things under financial services regulation, just regulate the centralized intermediaries. And I think that was a productive conversation.
- [33:56]
A
So it does seem like there's some middle ground here. I mean, is there a sense that there does need to be a bipartisan draft before you actually move to the point where they're all in a room publicly marking up and voting on this legislation?
- [34:07]
B
Yeah, well, there is a. There's draft checks being shared back in forth in both Senate Banking and Senate AG at this point. And you know, I think it hasn't been released yet until maybe a little bit more progress has been made. But I hopefully we'll see those things come out publicly in the next month or so.
- [34:23]
A
And of course right now we are on day 22 of a government shutdown. How has that impacted the back and forth on this market structure legislation and the ability to get crypto legislation done this year?
- [34:34]
B
Well, the government shutdown, as far as I can tell, has stopped the Senate and their staff from continuing to work on this. And I really appreciate all of their hard work on it. So it's been great to see that the government shutdown really hasn't, hasn't slowed anything down from our point of view. And I think they have a real sense that, you know, with genius, that act that got passed recently, this unleashed a surge of payment activity in the crypto space. It gave a chance for the US Dollar to really be exported around the world and all these dollar denominated accounts. And so they want to see something similar now happen, happen with market structure.
- [35:03]
A
And I know that before there was a hope that it could be done this year. I mean, if we're looking at the committee to vote for it in November, certainly a lot of votes that have to happen after that. Is there any way to get it done this year? Are we looking at next year? Are we looking at the next session of Congress at this point?
- [35:18]
B
Yeah, my hope is still that it gets done this year. I think we have a good chance of doing it if we get it out of committee before Thanksgiving. There's a chance to get it done in December. And that would allow the Senate and the House to come together. You may remember, of course, that in the House Clarity bill already had a strong bipartisan support. So this is the Senate doing their own version of it. And then the two could come together and get it on the President's desk, hopefully shortly thereafter.
- [35:41]
A
Well, Brian Armstrong, Coinbase CEO, thank you so much for today. Melissa, back to you. All right, Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins, with Coinbase as CEO, you've been in ether and Bitcoin. I mean, it sounds like there's a lot more sort of regulatory, deep deregulation, regulatory push for Bitcoin that will help.
- [35:59]
B
Yeah, and as Brian said, it is bipartisan. So when you, when you look at Coinbase, first of all, usually November and December are very bullish months for crypto. I'm not sure if this is going to be different this time, but I would think that the bipartisan efforts on both sides of the aisle want to do it through regulation, not enforcement. But if you look at his stock specifically, it's 24% is based on transaction, 35% based on subscription, and about 20 something percent based on stablecoin. He will benefit no matter what happens in D.C. it will be the ball will be pushed down the road in a favorable way and that will increase his stock price dramatically from here.
- [36:41]
A
Dan?
- [36:42]
B
Yeah, I mean, you got to give Brian Armstrong a lot of credit. I think he first came on our show, I want to say like seven, eight years ago. He's been there throughout, he's been building, he's been making the case for, you know, regulatory environment that actually helps define whether it be first retail, but then institutions. They've taken some share there. But like at the end of the day, this is one that is very volatile based on the transactions, based on the volumes that they see. Retail is a big part of that. They haven't seen the adoption in institution to kind of level that out a little bit. So it really is at the end of the day dependent on just go look at the revenue numbers, just go look at the volatility that they've seen and the earnings numbers over the last six or seven years. So, you know, when you get a crypto winner, this thing is down more, let's say, than the underlying most of the time. So this is a tough one. I mean, I guess I'd rather be in the digital assets than this name right here.
- [37:32]
A
Bulls would argue that they are trying to diversify their revenue into more stable streams, like a subscription fee kind of service fee model.
- [37:40]
B
Yeah, I'm a bull, I'm a shareholder and, and I think Brian Armstrong is in a lot of different places that are not just about buying crypto and ether on their line. And first of all, tokenizing equities is something that, that is going to be massive. And I think they're going to be right there. They're involved in CFTC regulated crypto futures, they're involved in USDC payment. I mean, you know, I think if you want conduits to play the digital world and yes, everything that's going on in D.C. especially as we've heard, there's a, there's actually a rush to get stuff done as soon as possible while the windows open. Last November, quickly it traded up to this level that was an all time high at the time and it got cut in half by April. Past resistance becomes support. This is your support level.
- [38:23]
A
Coming up. The NHL's prediction power play hockey fans will soon have a new way to bet on the biscuit.
- [38:28]
B
Nice, Mel.
- [38:31]
A
It sounds like I know what I'm talking about. What's it mean for sports betting? Old guard. More on that when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to FAST Monday, the National Hockey League announcing partnerships with prediction markets Calce and polymarket, making the NHL the first major US sports league to partner with sports betting platforms. For more, let's bring in Contessa Brewer. Hey, Contessa. Hi there, Melissa. Yeah. So the National Hockey League has announced a first of its kind licensing deal with these prediction markets. The platforms are Kalshee and Polymarket. It's co exclusive and NHL's business president Keith Wachtel told me today the league really sees this as a massive opportunity to reach an untapped market of fans. For instance, people who want to wager on who gets killed on the hit show White Lotus might also find interest in whether a star hockey player makes a hat trick. Well, the NHL says this is just about fan engagement. It's a departure though, as you said, from the other leagues. The NFL has said even before football kickoff that the prediction markets mimic sports betting, that the potential is there and real for price distortion or manipulation. Major League Baseball has expressed concern about the impact on sports integrity. But hockey, they say it's satisfied with the guardrails. Kalshee CEO Tarek Manser said today on Squawk Box that he sees this as kind of a stamp of approval, a sign that prediction markets are here, here to stay. Certainly Kalshee is seeing the boom Doom and Dune analytics reported that Polymarket and Kalshee saw $2 billion in volume last week, which had of course, pro football baseball playoffs, hockey's launch. There's a lot for people who live in California or Texas without access to legal sports betting apps to like in these federally regulated platforms. The reaction, the stock prices though Contessa indicate that There is a belief that these sorts of partnerships could displace or disintermediate traditional sports betting platforms like a DraftKings which did, you know, see some losses today. And so I'm wondering to that extent it sounds like it can't really be duplicated across leagues because there's such sort of skepticism. Okay, so let's take DraftKings for instance. It's kind of going into this is if you can't beat them, join them. It just announced late yesterday that it has acquired Railbird, which is an exchange that's already licensed by the CFTC. In a few months, DraftKings anticipates launching a prediction app of its own. It has said nothing about sports, but my, my supposition about this is that if they launch sports, they will do so in states that don't already have legal sports sportsbooks because after all Nevada has threatened, for instance, if you participate in sport prediction markets, you very well could lose your gaming license. Okay, so that's one, two is that they can geo fence around tribal lands so you can give tribes the sovereignty to offer gaming on tribal lands by geofencing around it and not letting them have access to the platforms. What's more, Jordan Bender wrote today in a note from Citizen. Look, they've got Fantasy Sports and Pick' Em 6 in 44 states. They already have more customers than Cal she could ever hope to have at this point. So the cost of acquiring customers for predictions market for DraftKings or FanDuel or BET MGM is likely to be lower than it is for Cowshi or polymarket. All right, Contessa, thank you. Contessa Brewer. We do want to get back to Tesla's conference call. It is underway. We've been listening, listening in. Shares are currently down just about 3%, 3.7% off the after hours lows here. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management back with us. So Gene, what's happened?
- [42:20]
B
Melissa, in the prepared remarks, Elon did not mention anything about the expanded Robotaxi fleet. That was one of the pressure points going on in the quarter. As soon as he wrapped up his.
- [42:31]
A
Prepared remarks, the call started six minutes.
- [42:33]
B
Late, keep in mind.
- [42:34]
A
But as soon as he wrapped up his remarks, you saw the stock start.
- [42:38]
B
To trade a little bit lower on that.
- [42:40]
A
So we'll see if we get more commentary.
- [42:41]
B
But I think that that was the, the catalyst to kind of drifting a little bit lower. I would say he did have a positive comment related to production.
- [42:49]
A
He said they are going to ramp.
- [42:50]
B
Production as fast as they can and it is a read a little bit on deliveries for next year. Recall the street's at 17% growth.
- [42:59]
A
The whisper number is 10%.
- [43:00]
B
I think it's to going, going to be 5%. But it doesn't make a ton of sense if they think that next year is going to be, let's say a.
- [43:07]
A
Flat or down year for them to.
- [43:09]
B
Be talking about ramping production. So I think that there is a.
- [43:12]
A
Positive read relative to deliveries. Of course, we'll wait to hear more.
- [43:16]
B
Clarity on that comment.
- [43:17]
A
All right, Jean, thank you. Jean Munster, Just about at after our recession lows down by 3.8% on Tesla. More breaking news out of D.C. the president making some comments on rare earths. Let's get back to Eamon Jabbers for these details. Eamon?
- [43:30]
B
Melissa, that media availability in the Oval Office is ongoing and the president just talked about the prospect of making a deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week. He says he does think he'll have a deal with Xi Jinping on rare earths, on soybeans, on nuclear issues. The president also sort of dismissing the controversy over rare earths. He said, you know, there are rare earths everywhere around the planet. He said he's been getting a lot of calls. He said there's rare earths that he can get access to inside the United States and around the world. So sort of dismissing the piece of this negotiation that the Chinese side had been trying to use as leverage even as he predicted that they would get to a deal next week. So I think some more positive atmospherics here at the White House about that potential meeting next week. Melissa.
- [44:18]
A
All right, Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers. Coming up, beyond belief. It's been a crazy week for shares of the plant based protein maker. We'll dive into the options market market to find out what is in store for the meme trade. More fast money into welcome back to past money. Action in shares of Beyond Meat has been beyond belief this week. Just today it was up as much as 112% and down nearly 30%, closing at basically the flat line. Still, the stock has more than quintupled since Monday. A spark by the inclusion in the new meme ETF. The ETF is down more than 9% since it started trading on October 8th under the ticker ME. And top holdings besides Beyond Meat include Navitas Semiconductor, Critical Metals Corp. Opendoor, Quantumscape and Plug Power. But it's some other names that are catching the eyes of the options traders. Mike Co has the action. Hey Mike, what are you looking at.
- [45:14]
B
Yeah, there are a lot of these meme stocks that are catching fire in the options market today. Donut, Krispy Kreme, this one traded almost 70 times its average daily put volume today. Beyond Meats, which you just referenced, this thing traded over 11 times its average daily put volume. Sweet Greens, this one traded almost three times its average daily call volume. And Clover Health, also almost two times its average daily call volume. Some of the activity that we saw in Beyond Meats, which traded over 3.3 million contracts today, it should be said, were buyers of the October 24th weekly, that's this coming Friday, three strike puts. I saw a block of 5,000 of those trade for 26 cents. Obviously that is a bet to the downside. I think a lot of people are using options in these things where they can't use margin. A lot of these stocks are less than $5 a share and so this is the only way to get leverage. But it's all speculation, of course.
- [46:03]
A
Mike, thank you. The entire stock market is basically Mike. Up next, final trades. Some breaking news just now, the Senate rejecting the House stopgap bill for the 12th time, meaning the government shutdown continues. Get to the final trade now.
- [46:22]
B
Dan Nathan yeah, Baidu is not the B in guys two, but it's looking really good down here after retracing 20% of that recent move. Tim, Fun talking hockey with you. Mel Biscuit Coinbase Coin Steve Delta Weekday today, but I'm in it. Eat Biscuit in the basket. SLB Corp.
- [46:44]
A
Thanks for watching. Fast Money Match Fast Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer CNBC's Changemakers 2026 list spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly, and are transforming business do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them now@cnbc.com changemakers.