Tesla’s Stall Continues… And The Long Term Impact From Trump’s Economic Policies 02/11/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary Episode: Tesla’s Stall Continues… And The Long Term Impact From Trump’s Economic Policies
Release Date: February 11, 2025

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1. Tesla's Stock Decline and Business Concerns

Overview:
The episode kicks off with an in-depth analysis of Tesla's ongoing stock downturn. Shares have plunged over 6% on the day, reaching their lowest point since mid-November and marking a five-day losing streak. This decline follows a broader trend where Tesla has shed a third of its value since its December peak, undoing more than half of its post-election rally.

Key Points:

• Stock Performance: Tesla's stock has consistently underperformed, losing significant value despite previous highs.
• CEO Distractions: Elon Musk's various ventures, including his involvement with the Oval Office and his $97 billion bid for Twitter (referred to as "open air"), are cited as potential distractions impacting Tesla's core business.
• Sales Decline: Sales in key markets such as France, Germany, and China have started the year on a downward trajectory.
• Competition and Innovation: While Tesla is pushing into self-driving technology and robo-taxis, concerns remain whether these innovations will suffice against increasing competition, especially from companies like BYD.

Notable Quotes:

• Melissa Lee (02:37):
  "Elon really didn't spend a lot of time talking about like the car sales and what's going on in Europe... the fundamentals of the car business are not particularly good and they're only getting worse right now."

• Guy Adami (04:27):
  "It's always been a story of we're betting on the concepts and we don't necessarily have delivery."

• Katie Stockton (06:09):
  "This is a countertrend move and ultimately something that will yield a buying opportunity."

2. Impact of Trump's Economic Policies on the Market

Overview:
Three weeks into President Trump's second term, the podcast explores the immediate and long-term implications of his economic policies. The focus is on policies like increased tariffs, restructuring government departments, and significant investments in energy and AI.

Key Points:

• Policy Optimism vs. Reality: Initial market optimism regarding Trump's policies may mask underlying challenges, such as potential regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions.
• Elon Musk's Political Ties: Elon Musk's close association with the Trump administration raises questions about regulatory support versus backlash from other political stakeholders.
• Economic Uncertainty: Former PIMCO Chief Economist Paul McCully discusses the distinction between risk and uncertainty, emphasizing how undefined economic parameters can lead to market hesitancy.

Notable Quotes:

• Melissa Lee (08:30):
  "If Musk were to leave the administration... then all of a sudden, if you were really excited from 250 up to 500, essentially, and now here you are at 325, where do you think the stock goes?"

• Paul McCully (32:55):
  "Risk is calculating the odds in a game where you know the parameters and you know the rules... uncertainty is when you are playing a game and you don't know the parameters, you don't know the rules."

3. Earnings Reports: Lyft and Supermicro

Lyft:

• Performance: Lyft shares fell sharply after missing both top and bottom-line estimates. The stock has now erased all of its year-to-date gains.
• Guidance Concerns: CEO David Rischer attributed the soft guidance to intensified pricing pressures, indicating a challenging competitive landscape.
• Robotaxis Future: There are mixed feelings about Lyft's plans to roll out mobile-powered robotaxis by 2026, with concerns over credibility and market readiness.

Supermicro:

• Delays and Challenges: Supermicro is racing against deadlines to avoid a NASDAQ delisting amidst accounting concerns raised by an activist investor.
• Financial Outlook: Despite lowering full-year 2025 expectations, Supermicro remains optimistic about its liquid cooling technology for data centers, aiming for $40 billion in revenue by 2026.
• Investor Sentiment: The market reacted positively to Supermicro's updates, with shares rising approximately 10-11%.

Notable Quotes:

• Deidre Bose (Lyft Report, 16:38):
  "The after-hours declines wipe out all of Lyft's year-to-date gains."

• Dan Nathan (Supermicro Analysis, 23:02):
  "If you think they're going to file, the stock can probably... go up to 70 bucks and then we'll have a conversation."

4. Apple's AI Partnership in China

Overview:
Apple is reportedly partnering with Alibaba to integrate AI features into iPhones for the Chinese market. This strategic move aims to bolster Apple's shrinking market share in China amidst fierce competition from local giants like Huawei.

Key Points:

• Market Challenges: Apple's sales in China have declined by 12% year-over-year, indicating significant struggles against domestic competitors.
• Privacy vs. Partnership: Apple's commitment to user privacy in the U.S. contrasts with its need to collaborate with Alibaba in China, raising concerns about data security and governmental access.
• Regulatory Hurdles: The AI features must pass approval from Chinese cyberspace regulators, suggesting a lengthy and uncertain rollout timeline.

Notable Quotes:

• Fred Lambert (Electric Editor-in-Chief, 14:54):
  "In Europe, we're seeing the impact right now. I put that much weight into that."

• Dan Nathan (On Alibaba, 29:07):
  "This stock to me is still about 30% too cheap."

5. Energy Sector Analysis

Overview:
The energy sector is gaining traction, with analysts noting a shift towards more cyclical and defensive market areas. Notable movements include increased stakes by activist investors in BP and Phillips, signaling potential growth opportunities.

Key Points:

• Sector Rotation: There's a notable rotation favoring energy, driven by positive momentum and relative valuation improvements.
• Crude Oil Outlook: Crude oil is in a triangle formation, with a significant breakout above $76 per barrel for WTI expected to sustain sector momentum.
• Individual Stocks: Companies like SLB are showing positive technical signals, indicating potential upward movements.

Notable Quotes:

• Katie Stockton (Energy Analysis, 39:03):
  "Energy has just reversed into favor. This is a six-week trailing history that you're seeing behind the sectors."

• Dan Nathan (44:14):
  "I like the fact that energy is getting its mojo and Schlumberger quickly."

6. Federal Reserve and Economic Insights

Overview:
The podcast features insights from former PIMCO Chief Economist Paul McCully, who discusses the Federal Reserve's position amidst economic uncertainties introduced by the new administration.

Key Points:

• Economic Stability: Despite political shifts, the Federal Reserve remains in a strong position to manage the economy, with policy rates currently favoring stability.
• Inflation and Growth: McCully emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between growth and inflation, warning against rates rising to levels that could dampen investor confidence.
• Political Influence: While there are concerns about political meddling, McCully reassures that the Fed's independence remains intact, ensuring prudent economic management.

Notable Quotes:

• Paul McCully (32:55):
  "There’s more downside risk from uncertainty about the rules as opposed to simply risk within the context of definable rules."

• Paul McCully (36:16):
  "I don't worry too much about where the Fed is in the firmament of politics and democracy. I think we're fortunate that we have a statesman as chairman of the Fed."

7. Housing Market and Federal Reserve Commentary

Overview:
The housing market remains under pressure, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressing concerns over mortgage rates, housing shortages, and rising costs. This segment delves into how these factors interplay with current economic policies.

Key Points:

• High Costs: Powell highlighted persistent challenges such as high insurance, material costs, and labor shortages that continue to drive housing prices upward.
• Market Correction: Homebuilders face difficulties accessing capital and managing financing costs, leading to reduced market margins and cautious investor sentiment.
• Stock Reactions: Zillow shares dropped following weaker-than-expected guidance, despite revenue beats, reflecting market sensitivity to future outlooks.

Notable Quotes:

• Jerome Powell (Housing Commentary, 42:45):
  "We're clearly having an effect on the housing market and that'll unwind as we normalize policy."

• Guy Adami (Housing Market Analysis, 43:07):
  "The valuations aren't that great. The business is challenged."

8. Closing Trades and Final Insights

Overview:
In the final segments, the hosts share their top trade picks and provide concluding thoughts on the day's market movements.

Key Points:

• Top Trades:

  • Energy: Katie Stockton advocates for natural gas funds like UNG, citing strong momentum and sector rotation.
  • MLPs: Energy transfer Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are highlighted for their robust performance.

• Market Sentiment:

  • Lyft's Potential Rebound: Despite recent setbacks, some analysts believe Lyft's strong quarter could lead to a stock rebound.
  • Supermicro's Resilience: Despite delisting threats, Supermicro's focus on innovation keeps investor interest alive.

Notable Quotes:

• Katie Stockton (Final Trades, 44:15):
  "Energy could just be on its own path."

• Dan Nathan (Final Trades, 44:22):
  "I like the fact that energy is getting its mojo and Schlumberger quickly."

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Conclusion

This episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive overview of key market movements, focusing on Tesla's financial struggles amid CEO distractions, the nuanced impact of President Trump's economic policies, and the evolving dynamics within the tech and energy sectors. With expert analyses and real-time market reactions, listeners gain valuable insights into navigating the complexities of the current financial landscape.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

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[Tim Seymour]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Tim Seymour]

Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn [e-mail] live from the Nasdaq markets out in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A Tesla tumble shares trading at nearly three month lows. Is there more downside to come or will Elon Musk get shares revved up again? And three weeks into his second term, we are getting a clearer picture of Trump's economic policies. Will early optimism prove justified or is there a reckoning on its way? Plus digging in on earnings from Lyft and Supermicro. Apple reportedly partners up to bring its AI to China and we go off the charts to find the next move in the energy trade where one of our traders sees that space going. I'm Melissa Lee comes to you live from CDP at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies. Welcome Katie. And we start off with Tesla in turmoil. The EV stock plunging more than 6% today, hitting its lowest level since mid November and locking in a five day losing streak. The stock has lost a third of its value since setting a record in December, retracing more than half its post election rally. The latest round of losses coming amid a slew of potential distractions for CEO Elon Musk heading up doge. Here he is in fact today in the Oval Office with the President as well as his son. Then there's his $97 billion bid for control of open air and of course his nonstop posting on X. On top of that, there's concern over the slowdown in Tesla's core business. The company seeing sales in France, Germany and China plummet to start the year. Bulls seem to think the push into self driving will be the next positive catalyst for the stock. But will that be enough to give Tesla the edge over the competition? What are we looking at here when we take a look at this slide?

[Melissa Lee]

I didn't look at the slide, but that's a cute kid over there, I got to be honest. You know, listen, on the last call about a week and a half ago, I mean, Elon really didn't spend a lot of time talking about like the car sales and what's going on in Europe. And you know, we're down here in the US also and it doesn't look like they're going to make their deliveries this year. I know it sounds really early just to kind of extrapolate what they did in January, but we know they're in a price war. We know that there's threats about tariffs. We know that, you know, these EV credits could go away. We know that price war that's been going on for three years is not abating anytime soon. But what he spent a lot of time talking about is robots and robo taxis and how that is going to inflate the price of this stock. And so when I think about what's going on right here, if you bought the stock on the breakout from November 5th and it was nearly a double from November 6th to December 18th, you know, you have to believe in his proximity to the President and the White House and what that might mean for deregulation is going to help all the things that he's not focused on right now. They're not making a low end EV to compete with some of the low end competition that's coming from China in other places. So at the end of the day, if the promise was that we're going to get to full self driving, then we're going to get to robo taxi. It's going to happen sooner than you think. And oh, by the way, this optimist thing is going to be really helpful in making all this stuff. And you can buy one too and you can have it in your house. That's not happening anytime soon. So when you think about this stock, I mean it really could round trip the entire move back to November 6, because the fundamentals of the car business are not particularly good and they're only getting worse right now.

[Tim Seymour]

There are a lot of things to come. And yet BYD today announces its self driving offering and it's called God's Eye across all models and not for an additional fee, which, which Tesla is offering in terms of full self driving. They're starting at a very low Pricing point. They're going across three levels and this could actually force, you know, the rethink in terms of these services. Are we going to charge for them or not? And there might be pressure to not charge for them.

[Dan Nathan]

The whole company. Yes, absolutely. And you know, January 29th was a Wednesday. We were here together. They Tesla reported earnings margins were a disaster. The worst margins in over five years. And I said to you that night, if we had played the game, if you had told me last night this was going to happen. Where's the stock? I said would have been down $50. It was not. As a matter of fact it got up to about 415 or so. Now here's the $50 in the rearview mirror. I'm not sure why the market's deciding now to sort of punish him on what I think was the back of that quarter and some of these headlines, but I do think it's justified. And Dan talks about round trip. Yeah, maybe we stopped today at about the 150 day moving average. It's a normal place for us to bounce. But you know, fundamentals matter. The fundamentals to me suggest lower.

[Tim Seymour]

Tim.

[Guy Adami]

It's always been a story of we're betting on the concepts and we don't necessarily have delivery. I mean energy storage is another one of these things that the analyst community got really excited. I mean ultimately the revenue number missed pretty badly. Yes, there were some positives on the margin but then there was and you know, let's point to the lowest cost of goods sold on record and there's some dynamics that I think are things that, that the bulls can point to. I just take it back to what's the company worth. And it's much like we're going to have a conversation about, you know, Chairman Powell and they can only price in tariffs when they actually see the impact. I'll price this into the model when I actually have these revenues, not where I think growth could be. That's always been my story here. You know, the current P E is north of 150. Even after some of this pullback. That's what it comes down to. Again, there's a lot of moving pieces. There's a lot of unknowns, there's a lot of upside, there's a lot of excitement. There's a lot of core businesses that certainly are hard to put a number on. And that's exactly right. I'm not putting a number on them today.

[Tim Seymour]

The action was not very good, Katie, and very heavy volume. It finished at its lows.

[Katie Stockton]

Yeah. So it took out some support around 350. It does follow a major breakout though. That was a big resistance level for it to get through post election. So we think this is a countertrend move and ultimately something that will yield a buying opportunity. Believe it or not, because it ran up so quickly though it is not oversold yet. From an intermediate term perspective, we have no counter trend buy signals. So we think it'll take some time to get there.

[Tim Seymour]

And of course there's all the arguments that, you know, he's tight with Trump and therefore things like investigations like NHTSA investigations or the DOJ investigation, maybe those will go away magically or be lessened if there's something, if there's wrongdoing to be found. At the same time, there's also backlash when it comes to his association with Donald Trump.

[Dan Nathan]

It's interesting though, when those were brought up, I mean, it didn't seem to have any impact at all. I mean, maybe in some odd way the fact that they effectively cozied up to the administration and they will be dropped, maybe he'll get punished on the back end for that, I'm not sure. But to Katie's point, I think her work would suggest like 280. If you go back and look like last summer, that was the level we had trouble at a couple of times on the upside and then finally broke out post election. It makes sense to do a round trip and the round trip that Dan talks about is this 280 level. Then you can have a conversation about buying it.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, I'll just say this and Tim laid out, you know, some of the other things that you could get excited about from a fundamental standpoint. And again, we don't know when this is going to happen. And you know, if you want to give Musk credit for anything is like he puts this vision out in the world, he pursues it very hard, he makes a reality happen for the most part. Again, eventually there will be full self driving, there will be Tesla Robotaxis, there will be robots, all that sort of thing. But if you're willing to do that now, if you're willing to pull forward all that excitement, it's kind of hard to see how you can make money like doing that for, you know, you know, again and again. I mean, this is one of the worst on November 5, this is one of the worst performing mega cap tech stocks over the prior three years, dry during this whole bull market. So it got really disconnected from fundamentals for a bunch of reasons that you can't put your finger on So I guess when I think about this coming in, I think there's a potential air pocket. If Musk were to leave the administration, whatever you want to call it, then all of a sudden, if you were really excited from 250 up to 500, essentially, and now here you are at 325, where do you think the stock goes if he were to leave Doge, if he were to actually have beef with the administration? It goes lower. It doesn't go higher.

[Tim Seymour]

Right. We've got some breaking news out of the White House. Eamon Javors has more on that meeting between Musk and President Trump. Eamonn?

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, Melissa. It ended up being something like a.

[Dan Nathan]

Half an hour news conference with Elon Musk and Donald Trump.

[Melissa Lee]

And Elon Musk was asked by reporters in a number of different ways about the critics of Doge, his government efficiency operation, who say that Elon Musk is basically operating without any accountability, without any transparency, without any checks and balances in the normal course of business. Here's what Elon Musk had to say about that.

[Elon Musk]

All of our actions are fully public. So if you see anything, you say, like, wait a second, hey, that doesn't.

[Tim Seymour]

That seems like maybe that's, you know.

[Elon Musk]

There'S a conflict there.

[Tim Seymour]

It's not like people are going to be shy about saying that transparency is what builds trust. Not simply somebody asserting trust.

[Elon Musk]

So not somebody saying they're trustworthy, but transparency.

[Tim Seymour]

So you can see everything that's going on, and then you can see, am.

[Katie Stockton]

I doing something that benefits one of.

[Tim Seymour]

My companies or not?

[Melissa Lee]

Not.

[Elon Musk]

It's totally obvious.

[Tim Seymour]

And if we thought that we would.

[Paul McCully]

Not let him do that segment or look in that area, if we thought there was a lack of transparency or a conflict of interest, and we watched that also.

[Melissa Lee]

So you heard the president there at the end saying that if he thought there was any conflict of interest, he wouldn't let Elon Musk do any of the things that he's doing. You know, the problem with that, the critics will say, Melissa, is that, you know, really it's just down to the White House's judgment about whether it's appropriate for Elon Musk, for example, to be involved in Pentagon spending decisions when the Pentagon is obviously a huge contractor of Starlink or with NASA spending when NASA is a huge contractor with SpaceX.

[Dan Nathan]

So we'll have to see how this.

[Melissa Lee]

Relationship sorts out over time because, you.

[Dan Nathan]

Know, there are some potential conflict of.

[Melissa Lee]

Interest pitfalls here for Elon Musk.

[Dan Nathan]

But as for now, he says, look.

[Melissa Lee]

Everything I'M doing is public and Trump.

[Dan Nathan]

Says we'll keep him away from anything that wouldn't be appropriate.

[Tim Seymour]

Melissa Eamonn, thank you. Eamon Jabers standing at the winter wonderland they call the White House today. Let's get back to Tesla and its self driving cars here in its pursuit of self driving. Let's bring in Fred Lambert, the editor in chief of Electric. Fred, great to have you with us.

[Elon Musk]

Thanks for having me.

[Tim Seymour]

What do you make of, I mean overall, do you think that it is a benefit or it is a risk that Elon Musk is so tightly associated with Donald Trump?

[Elon Musk]

I would think right now we've seen the impact that we are kind of missing with. It's, it's hard to, you cannot gauge the impact of Elon's political meddling right now. It's impossible to put a number on it. It's, it's having an impact most likely than not. But it's very difficult to put a number on it. To say the fact of this today in the market, what we're seeing is the impact of Elon Musk and his doja meddling.

[Tim Seymour]

Right. I'm just curious though, I mean in terms of the core business and the hopes of investors in Tesla stock, I mean you wonder how is it going to benefit the core business that Elon Musk is involved with the Trump administration? Is it more cons because he's distracted, he's got other things to do, the other things that he's, he's, he's doing on behalf of the United States instead of working on his business? Is it more of a benefit because perhaps those investigations that we talked about, the nits investigations into, into six crashes, the DOJ investigation to the claims of full self driving, the regulations that will pave the way for Robotaxi, all those things will be a benefit for Tesla stock ultimately well over the Biden administration.

[Elon Musk]

There were several investigation minutes into Tesla's self driving products in the US and they got a slap on the wrist with basically having to change a bunch of alert system and monitoring driving system. And that was basically they had to force Tesla to do a complete stop instead of what we call in Canada an American stop or in the U.S. sometimes you call the Californian stuff. That was basically it. So in the US regulators are not the bottleneck for Tesla self driving effort. The technology is the bottleneck. And this is technology right now based on Kraussel's data is at about 500 miles between critical disengagement and Tesla itself says that it needs to be at 700,000 miles between this engagement to be safer than human, than human drivers, which is what NHTSA says is miles between human collisions, which makes sense.

[Dan Nathan]

So how important is this event in Austin in June for the, for the self driving car?

[Elon Musk]

Well that's a masterful play by Elon is he's going to be moving the goalpost, basically. So Tesla has been promising to all its customers since 2016 that all cars they are building is capable of full self driving, has the hardware for self driving. They've been wrong twice about this, already announced that you have to change the computers on two different occasions. So what they're going to do right now is basically Elon is losing all credibility when it comes to driving. He's literally been saying that it's going to happen by the end of the year for the last six, seven years or so now. So what he's going to do in June instead is going to, he's going to launch way more. He's going to launch a service that's geofence, that is teleoperated or tele operation supported remotely. It's going to be most likely to not map though that's not entirely sure. And it's going to be an internal fleet rather than the customer vehicles that he's been talking about for years. So basically he's going to announce that Tesla has achieved unsupervised self driving, but it's going to be a service that Waymo has launched four years ago, including now in Austin already.

[Tim Seymour]

So Fred, I've been reading articles, including one on Electric about analysts in Europe specifically that are concerned about the Elon Musk political sort of, you know, siding with the far right wing of various parties in Europe, particularly in Germany, and how that can actually backfire, particularly when it comes to sales in Germany, which is a very important market for Tesla. You read an article in Electric that had pictures of various, you know, there's instances of vandalism at various stores in Europe. There's also in the Berlin factory, excuse me, they projected a picture of Elon doing that salute that Nazi like salute along with Heil Tesla onto the face of the Berlin factory. I mean, what do you make of those sorts of reports?

[Elon Musk]

I mean in Europe they take the Nazi stuff pretty seriously for good reasons. Not that we don't necessarily hear, but it's less of a reality for us in North America saying similar things in China, which you know is Tesla's the most important market. You know, Elon could call his nest kids Adolf and they probably would be fine. In China, but in Europe we're seeing the impact right now. I think obviously there's the Model Y changeover that's also not helping Tesla sells. But in some market you can see that it's the Model 3 that's hurting even more than the Model Y. So in Europe is the, is the only market right now that we have data that we can clearly see that Elon's milling in politics is affecting Tesla negatively and in a significant way. The vandalizing stuff, I mean it's, you know, it's frustration people and they like it's nearly criminal. So I put that much weight into that. But that the failing sells are pretty clear to me.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah. Fred, thanks so much for joining us. Great to get your take. No Lambert of Electric. All in all, I don't know what do you make of this?

[Guy Adami]

Well again remember six months ago or before this parabolic move, we, I think it was universally thought that the company had probably 12 to 18 months of rough sledding for markets, for valuations for things that would drive the stock higher. And there have been different reasons why a lot of them have been certainly macro related that have seen it go higher. If you look at 25, the core auto business has headwinds, you've got higher startup costs, you've got dynamics around China and the risks that we've talked about. And I just think that those are the things that for an investor at least like me, I there's very little to be excited about in the short run. You can talk about the DCF model out in 2035 on robo and that it's worth 80 billion in revenues which some analysts are doing, but I don't do that.

[Tim Seymour]

Meantime, we've got an earnings alert on Lyft. The stock is dropping sharply after missing top and bottom line estimates. That conference call is now underway. Our Deidre Bose has got the details. Debo. Hey Mel. So it's really that soft guidance that's taking shares lower in the after hours by about 8%. When I spoke to CEO David Rischer on the results, he attributed the soft guidance to new pricing pressure. He says that showed up at the end of last year. He said we price competitively and reliably. If someone else takes it down, we will match them. So that has been sort of weighing on their earnings. The after hours declines that wipes out all of Lyft's year to date gains and the bump that it just saw yesterday on that announcement that it will roll out mobile powered robotaxis in 2026 I also asked Richard about the impact of Waymo because Robotaxis is really the thing that moves these ride sharing stocks. Waymo has expanded in San Francisco which is an important market for Lyft, but Rishi says he sees it still as a premium product, so not exactly competitive. The earnings call is ongoing. Right now the CFO is speaking. They haven't got to Q and A but I'll bring you any highlights back to you. All right, Debo, thanks. Deidre Bosa in San Francisco.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, we talked about this yesterday. At least the announcement, the timing of it. Pretty curious about robotaxis in 2026. You know, the day before earnings, you know I looked at thing and I said listen, you know it probably is okay here. You're looking at a $4 or $5 billion enterprise value. If they are really serious about partnering with mobileye and others to do these ring fenced, you know, Robotaxis, it's probably like a cheap entity. It probably could still get bought by a Google or other sort of companies that actually divested some of their interests in robo taxi or autonomous vehicles over the last couple of years. So you know one thing I do not like, the stock had that huge gap last quarter because they guided up for bookings for this year and now they kind of missed that and the guidance seems kind of squishy. So that's not great credibility right there.

[Katie Stockton]

You know, it's had a good oversold bounce but to me with this likely breakdown tomorrow, it's an avoid. We often see these oversold retests from these stocks and in fact we think the same might happen with the broader market. So that there is risk broadly speaking and that this pickup in volatility from a bottom up perspective, including these earnings reactions is more negative than positive.

[Tim Seymour]

You're glad you didn't put it in band, make it bland.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, no, it would have really been that ETF would not have tasted so good. So I acronym excuse me. I think you've got a dynamic here where it's approved me story and even though bookings were up 15% and this was a, this is a record quarter and you've got the CFO out there saying that market share is the best they've seen since 2022, there's still a lot of things that I think are left unsaid. So I to me, I think the market punishes on something that where the guide is not great, that's not surprising. The stock is basically traded in a very wide range but in a range for the last year. And a half. And I think it's about a story that still needs to establish credibility.

[Tim Seymour]

Uber, by the way is down one plus percent sympathy.

[Dan Nathan]

And I think, you know, my sense is you buy Uber on the back of that. It was down today as well. You look at the lift quarter, I mean I get the guidance scared people are selling off the stock. The quarter is pretty good. Tim just said it. Not only that, I mean margins better. Probably the best margins they've ever seen in terms of 7.3% free cash flow came in $100 million ish more than the street was looking for. This is actually a really good quarter. If you think they're sandbagging, then I think you buy this stock here and I think they're sandbagging.

[Tim Seymour]

All right. Down 9% plus at this moment. Coming up, more after hours action. Shares of Supermicro on the move after its latest results and an update on its delayed annual report. What they are saying about a potential NASDAQ delisting that is next. Plus an overseas tech team up. Apple reportedly picking an AI partner to bring its tech to China. How that move could impact market share in that region and what it means for the China trade ahead. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two business. It's all the things that keep this world turning.

[Katie Stockton]

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[Paul McCully]

Powers more businesses than anyone else. Comcast Business powering possibilities Restrictions apply.

[Tim Seymour]

Call or visit comcastbusiness.com to learn more.

[Melissa Lee]

What's at stake when administrations change from the first 100 days and beyond, EY brings insights on the issues that matter. Executive orders, regulation of AI, the fate of billions in tax credit, global trade and workforce stability.

[Tim Seymour]

No matter the policy shifts, EY helps.

[Melissa Lee]

Business and government leaders remain resilient. Resilient and sees dynamic growth. EY navigate the geopolitical and economic landscape with confidence. Learn how to use AI to be more successful with CNBC make it's new online course.

[Tim Seymour]

We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.

[Melissa Lee]

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[Tim Seymour]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of supermicro higher by 10% after the server maker announced preliminary Q2 expectations. Until your guidance, CNBC's Christina Parts Neville has got all the details, Christina. Yeah, well, Supermarket is racing against the clock right now to avoid a NASDAQ delisting.

[Melissa Lee]

The server maker promising again today in.

[Tim Seymour]

That business update, they'll file their delayed annual report and outstanding quarterly reports by.

[Melissa Lee]

The deadline February 25th.

[Tim Seymour]

This all started when an activist investor raised some serious questions about their accounting, which led to their auditor, Ernst and.

[Melissa Lee]

Young, cutting ties, which is some pretty messy stuff.

[Tim Seymour]

You're seeing the timeline on your screen. But here's the interesting part. Supermicro telling investors after the bell today that they won't need to revise any past financial statements. While their latest earnings might have missed the marks, yes, they did lower their full year 2025 outlook in their business update. But the company is playing the long game. Their CEO is particularly excited about their liquid cooling technology for data centers, boldly predicting they'll hit $40 billion in revenue by 2026. Plus, they're beefing up their war chest with an extra $700 million in capital as what this could mean for Nvidia maybe raises some concerns about the production of Nvidia server racks and Supermicro builds them for Nvidia. But shares are definitely not reacting right now. The business update, though, is Supermicro's way of saying, we've had some bumps, but we're still in this race. So far, investors agree shares are up 11%. Let's see if that momentum continues ahead.

[Melissa Lee]

Of that February 2020 fifth deadline and.

[Tim Seymour]

The earnings call, which is underway right now. So, Christina, I'm not sure if they said this explicitly, but they don't have to restate any results because of the findings by the investigate by the committee that they appointed, which is a single person. Exactly. It's all just like that they had.

[Melissa Lee]

In December, the independent investigation that found no misdoings.

[Tim Seymour]

And so today they are reassuring investors again that they do not have to restate anything, even if there is just one auditor right now. So there's going to be no changes. Okay, Christina, thank you. Christina. Parts Nevelis, their independent investigation was an independent board member. It was a single board member who managed, managed to go through months and months of financial results in a very short amount of time. But here we are, up 11%. Guy, what do you make of this whole thing?

[Dan Nathan]

People are betting that they're going to get it in by the. By the February was the 25th deadline. Now, by the way, this was due in August of last year. Just full disclosure and the quarter wasn't particularly good. And Christina mentioned $40 billion of revenue in 2026. I mean, that basically is the same revenue trajectory that they've been on. So they're not telling you really anything. I don't think different. It all comes down to if you think they're going to file, the stock can probably, as I said last night, you could actually get it up to 70 bucks and then we'll have a conversation. But I don't think you play it either way right now.

[Melissa Lee]

You know, it's interesting when you look at their suppliers, Nvidia, Broadcom, amd, Intel, I mean the list goes Micron, the list goes on and on. It's kind of important company in the, in the ecosystem. We know it's kind of a two horse race between them and Dell. We know that Dell has twice the gross margin. So that was one of the issues. I think that was kind of hurt in this company. I don't remember exactly what some of the allegations were. I bet it gets sorted out. And the other thing I'll just say is that, you know, you see a stock like this is up 10%. It was down 10%. You know, meme stocks are having their day. We talked about it. Look at upstart in the aftermarket today. You know, yesterday was a firm in Carvana. So, you know, again, this is one where I'm sure the short interest is, you know, pretty high. And this thing is down a lot.

[Tim Seymour]

Internal controls was what the auditor that resigned flagged. You like intel though, which Dan mentioned?

[Katie Stockton]

Yeah, I mean it's obviously a safer play. The beta and supermicro is incredibly high. So I think intel as an alternative is attractive. It has what looks like a double bottom formation on the chart. It held some very important support around 1885 and closed above its 50 day moving average today on improved momentum. So intrigued by it, there's a lot.

[Tim Seymour]

More fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Melissa Lee]

Apple picks a partner. The tech giant reportedly inking a deal to bring AI features to China's iPhone users who they're buddying up with and whether the move can help staunch a shrinking market share. Plus, could short term optimism over President Trump's economic policies give way to some longer term pain? The potential impact of the most recent tariffs, regulations and executive orders out of the White House. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. What's at stake when administrations change from the first 100 days and beyond, EY brings insights on the issues that matter. Executive orders, regulation of AI, the fate of billions in tax credit, global trade and workforce stability. No matter the policy shifts, EY helps business and government leaders remain resilient and seize dynamic growth. EY navigate the geopolitical and economic landscape with confidence. Learn how to use AI to be more successful with CNBC make it's new online course.

[Tim Seymour]

We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.

[Melissa Lee]

Go to CNBCmakeit.com AI and register now.

[Tim Seymour]

Welcome back to Fast Money, a big tech AI team up. Apple reportedly picking Alibaba as a partner to help bring Apple intelligence features to iPhone users in China. The company has been facing shrinking market share in the country, losing out to domestic rivals like Huawei. Apple and Alibaba both getting a bump on the report while Baidu, which seemingly lost out on the deal, dropped. This is according to the information. They also reported that they actually submitted the AI features to the China cyberspace regulators who would have to approve everything before it gets released on the phone. Tim so it looks like it's far down the line if you believe this report.

[Guy Adami]

It's, it's good and it's good for some of the reasons why both companies are also potentially more interesting or discounts have been put on the company. So if you think about Apple and some concern about what's going on in China, we've talked about ad nauseam, certainly in terms of handset sales, but in terms of them being sanctioned or blessed or being okay to do business in China, this is a good sign in terms of Alibaba and their ability to do business with the West. And again, that to me is the biggest dynamic around investing in Alibaba because as we've talked about many times, it's not a macro call in China, 40% cash, etc. Etc. But you know, back to the AI and I think ultimately Apple, whether Apple intelligence is anything now and whether deep seek meant you begin to push it really even faster on the handsets ads. The bottom line is I think Apple will always be the way that most people are going to be doing search or carrying out. It's the vehicle, it's the platform. Until otherwise it's Apple's game.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, it just depends whether that's going to be the game in China. Right. So when you think about it, I mean this is a company that's been losing market share to local providers. We know that things like WeChat, these super apps there that can run on very cheap Android phones, or Huawei has some really great high end ones that have been competing very well with Apple. When you think about Apple's privacy focus here in the US it kind of interesting to think that they have to partner with an Alibaba locally where we know all that data can go right to the government, you know. And so it's just like we have a lot of our companies that want to be there and they almost need to be there. 20% of Apple sales come from China which are down 12% year over year, not doing particularly well. So what are they willing to kind of sacrifice as it relates to the sort of messaging that they have here in the US and so, so I think this is something that we're going to be living with for a while, especially in a world where TikTok is such a debate here. Deep Seek is going to be such a debate here. So again, it's important. I just don't see it as a really material thing for at least a year or two.

[Dan Nathan]

Maybe not necessary for Apple. I do think for Baba. And you know, David Tepper, we talked about it yesterday and they asked him, they the morning show, are you concerned about China? And he said my concerns about China, my hedges, I don't care. So he's sort of guns blazing. And we said it last night. You get through 118 in Alibaba, which I think we will, and you're talking uncharted territory. This stock to me is still about 30% too cheap.

[Tim Seymour]

118 the key, you know, well, Baba.

[Katie Stockton]

Looks better than Apple on its chart, which is kind of curious. I do not want to chase momentum in this environment though. So we can't look at Baba in a vacuum. If we did, it would be a buy because it has a short term breakout, a long term basing phase. Whereas Apple, it feels like it has another wave lower to it, to this longer term uptrend. So Bob is more attractive. But I think in this environment we want to always wait for the pullback.

[Tim Seymour]

Coming up just three weeks in and there have been a lot of announcements coming out of the White House what it could mean for the economy long term when fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast money. Stocks closing mixed today as investors digested cautious commentary on interest rates from Fed chair Jerome Powell. The Dow jumping 123 points. The S and P just eking out a small gain. And the NASDAQ falling about 4,10 of a percent shares. A couple Coca Cola leading the Dow today. The stock jumping nearly 5% after the soda maker reported earnings and revenues that topped estimates this morning. Net sales growing 6% for the quarter fueled by rising global demand shares of Metta further extending its record winning streak. The stock closing at another all time high notching its 17th straight day of gains. The stock is up nearly 18% in that time. Shares of T Mobile hitting a fresh all time high today. That stock up nearly 60% over the past year. And some after hours action shares a gilly add higher after beating expectations on the top and the bottom line Doordash earnings in line with estimates in a lending platform upstart surging after hiking its Q1 and full year revenue guidance. Meanwhile, President Trump has had a busy first three weeks in office, announcing increased tariffs and a massive deportation plan, restructuring government departments and making investments in energy and AI. And while markets seem to be initially optimistic about his policies, what will the long term impact be? Let's ask former PIMCO Chief Economist Paul McCully. He is also an adjunct professor at Georgetown McDonough School of Business. Professor McCully, great to have you with us.

[Paul McCully]

Good to be with you, Melissa.

[Tim Seymour]

I like how you explained the concept of risk versus uncertainty because I feel investors right now are facing uncertainty as opposed to risk.

[Paul McCully]

I think that's very much right. In fact, I teach my students this all the time. And risk is calculating the odds in a game where you know the parameters and you know the rules. You may win or lose, but you know the rules. So you're taking defined risk where uncertainty is when you are playing a game and you don't know the parameters, you don't know the rules, the rules are in flux. And actually you respond as an investor, as a human being, differently to risk than you do to uncertainty. You keep playing if all you're doing is managing risk. But when you face uncertainty, you don't know what the rules are, then you tend to pull back. So actually from the standpoint of the economy, there's more downside risk from uncertainty about the rules as opposed to simply risk within the context of definable rules.

[Tim Seymour]

Let's say, for instance, this period of uncertainty lasts for, I don't know, six months. It could be longer, could be shorter. But as an economist, how do you sort of factor that into your projections for the economy, for spending, for inflation, etc.

[Paul McCully]

Well, I think you naturally start with a baseline, and that's obviously what the Federal Reserve does. And a baseline will tend to extrapolate from where you've been adjusting for this, that and the other. But fundamentally the object in motion continues. And from that standpoint, it's actually we're in a good place. In fact, Chip House said that Many times today we're in a good place on the economy from the standpoint of the dual mandate. Unemployment at 4, inflation with the 2 handle, we're in a good place there. The Fed's in a good place with the policy rates having recalibrated 100 basis points down to 4 and 3/8, which is not necessarily neutral, but pretty close. So essentially you logically forecast that the economy will continue humming along and the Fed's going to hang out in the right neighborhood. So that becomes your base case forecast, and then you're just looking for all of the wild cards with respect to the parameters of the game. And I think that's what the Fed will be doing as well. I mean, fortunately they did the recalibration and they're in a good place right now. So effectively they are well positioned, as Chair Powell likes to say, to respond, whether or not the uncertainty clears up or the uncertainty becomes more nefarious. So, so that's the essence of how you are forecasting. It takes humility, but also for the Fed, they're in a really good starting point. So essentially, if Mr. Trump doesn't kick this economy out of sync with reality, then the economy should perform pretty well.

[Dan Nathan]

Love the optimism, Paul. Love the flow as well. So I guess you would then think the moving yield since September higher is on the back of an economy that's doing better. But is there a point where rates get too high, in your opinion?

[Paul McCully]

By definition, there has to be, because we're starting from a very, very flat yield curve. And if for whatever reason, uncertainty being predominant, particularly on tariffs, which have a stagflationary smell to them, if you go down that path, you'll get a bear steeping of the yield curve. And then that would raise a major question about valuations across a whole bunch of assets and could turn animal spirits negative. So that's what I'm focusing in on there. It's not a particular level. I mean, I think we're probably going to be for the 10 year, 400 quarter to 4 and 3 quarters for the next 6 months or so. But if you move to a level that effectively leads animal spirits to turn down and you see a big correction in financial conditions to the restrictive side, then it becomes problematic.

[Guy Adami]

Hoya Sachs. Professor McCully, do you think we're making too big a deal about the politics with the Fed in Washington? You sit in Washington, you've been very close to the dynamics here for a long time.

[Paul McCully]

I, I think the Fed is in a really good place right now. And fortunately they did the recalibration and we're at a level for the policy rate at four and three eighths that is really not offensive to anybody. In fact, President Trump himself gave a salute to Mr. Powell for sitting still a couple weeks ago. So effectively not even Mr. Trump could find something to complain about. And then we have our new treasury secretary not talking about short rates, but talking about long rates in a way that confuses me at times. But essentially the politics that's going on in Washington is not going to infect the Fed, I don't think. And also along those lines in that Mr. Powell voiced a very open mind to where we're going on the bank and financial regulatory front, recognizing that the Fed doesn't have a monopoly in bank regulatory matters like it does in setting the policy rate. And we got new people at the officer of the comptroller, which is in the treasury and also the fdic. And so he commented that he's going to be, you know, open minded and work in a collegial fashion with these new colleagues on the regulatory side. So I don't worry too much about where the Fed is in the firmament of politics and democracy. I think we're fortunate that we have a statesman as chairman of the Fed.

[Tim Seymour]

Paul, we always love having you on. Thanks so much for joining us.

[Paul McCully]

Thank you.

[Tim Seymour]

Paul McCullough now of Georgetown. We've got some inflation numbers this week that are going to be very important.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, I think it's really interesting what pressure just said there is like if Trump is going to back off the Fed a little bit and let them do their thing, that's probably the best thing that they could have done for him. If they see inflation go higher, it really kind of hurts. I think their pro growth growth agenda and they probably lose a lot of support of his electorate in the base in general. So again, I think Powell's done a pretty nice job here staying pat. And you know, that's probably the best thing if you believe in this pro growth agenda and watching inflation and make sure it doesn't get re inflated.

[Tim Seymour]

Coming up, high Energy charting what Katie Stockton is seeing in the technicals as crude bounces off recent lows. How she is playing the pump next. Welcome back to Fast Money Energy. Catching a bid this week on reports activist investor Elliott Management has upped its stake in both BP and Phillips. Katie here says there's more reason to be positive on the space. Let's go off the charts. So Katie, what are you looking at?

[Katie Stockton]

Well, it's really perked up from a momentum perspective and also from a relative perspective. If you look at the rotational work on the sector front normalized versus the S and P, you'll see some rotations that are starting to favor the more cyclical areas of the market, the more defensive areas of the market. It's all occurring at the expense of the mega cap heavy sectors.

[Tim Seymour]

Sorry, we don't usually see this kind of chart. It looks almost like a weather pattern.

[Guy Adami]

I saw constellations, I actually see. I see Castor and Pollux.

[Melissa Lee]

It looks like the Gulf of America.

[Tim Seymour]

But in all seriousness, I see the twins.

[Katie Stockton]

Let me explain a little bit here. So this is a normalized view of sector rotation. We all know sector rotation is there. This is a way to visualize it. Think of it like a data visualization tool. It's normalized. The crosshairs represent the S&P 500. Anything going down into the left is underperforming with growing momentum. Momentum typically and vice versa. So you assume a clockwise rotation. Notice that energy has just reversed into favor. This is a six week trailing history that you're seeing behind the sectors and then off to the lower left. Those are the more oversold areas of the market. So this is where I think there's more opportunity for that rotation to benefit. And it does include energy, of course. And I think that it could become more sustainable, more than just a countertrend movement move. If we were to see crude oil of course break out from what has been a very prolonged range, it's right now in a triangle formation. Triangles tend to be very high probability. If we were to see it resolve to the upside, that would happen above about $76 per barrel for WTI. That would be a major breakout for crude oil and could lend sustainability to a sector that tends to sort of have a mind of its own. So if you believe that we could see more consolidation or a weaker tape this year like we do, we think energy could just be on its own path. Right. We have seen that happen before. Now with all of this, of course, the individual stocks are perking up as well. They've been mostly in cyclical downtrends. We looked at SLB in our work this week and you'll see that it has a counter trend buy signal that kind of reversed the sell signal from a few months before and show signs of life from a momentum perspective with some, some positive divergences. And these are really widespread in this in the space, helped by the BP and PSX news as well.

[Dan Nathan]

First of all, I agree. Can we put that back up Because Jason Gewirtz now I'm breaking the ninth wall or something. It looks like. Remember that game Simon? We have to remember what colors came up. Simon says yellow. That's what.

[Paul McCully]

Oh no.

[Dan Nathan]

I thought it looked like the spaghetti.

[Tim Seymour]

Look at that.

[Dan Nathan]

Look in the, like, look in the middle of.

[Melissa Lee]

You know what? A viewer named Drew. A friend of mine just texted me the same thing. Game of Simon.

[Tim Seymour]

Really?

[Melissa Lee]

I think a lot of the viewers are thinking about it.

[Katie Stockton]

Okay, I like it.

[Tim Seymour]

I like that. But I like realization of their.

[Dan Nathan]

I like the fact that energy is getting its mojo and Schlumberger quickly. If it gets above 44, it's broken a two year downtrend. Melissa Lee just said.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah.

[Dan Nathan]

Did she?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, she said.

[Dan Nathan]

She said those.

[Tim Seymour]

Thanks for listening.

[Dan Nathan]

Those exact things.

[Tim Seymour]

You're too busy texting with Jason.

[Dan Nathan]

Keywords I by the way.

[Tim Seymour]

Hi Jason. Coming up, Fed Chair Jerome Powell raising concerns about the housing market in this testimony today. What he had to say about mortgage, mortgage rates, a housing shortage and much more. Fast Money's back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got an earnings alert on Zillow. Shares dropping as guidance came in weaker than expected. The home buying platform did beat on revenue but missed eps. Zillow also announcing a partnership with Redfin that will make it the exclusive provider of listings on apartment hunting funding sites like rent.com meantime, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also making some comments on the housing market in his Senate testimony today. Take a listen to what he had to say.

[Melissa Lee]

We're clearly having an effect on the, on the housing market and that'll, that'll unwind as we normalize policy. But we're still going to be faced with high insurance costs and high material costs and labor shortages and all the things that keep driving housing prices up across the country.

[Tim Seymour]

So what does this mean for the housing trade which has been under pressure recently? Tim?

[Guy Adami]

I think housing, the housing trades under pressure because I think the homebuilders went from a place where they're reasonably priced. There was so much interest rate sensitivity that we started to get relief on them. They gave it this kind of, this double after a rallying for three years straight. The valuations aren't that great. The business is challenged. If you can't have access to capital, it makes it more difficult. They've been eating a lot of the financing costs and it's been lowering market margins. I'm out.

[Tim Seymour]

What does the chart look like?

[Katie Stockton]

Very corrective. Well, for Zillow, it actually looks kind of interesting. I like longer term. It's A big basin phase but. But overextended in the near term. Whereas home builders, you know, the correction almost makes it look like a big head and shoulders top formation.

[Dan Nathan]

Louise is watching. Louise, that's an homage.

[Tim Seymour]

Longer the base, the higher in space. There's no outer space that like five.

[Guy Adami]

Times in the last two.

[Dan Nathan]

I haven't said it. Tonight she's watching.

[Guy Adami]

You got to remind people. Good for you.

[Tim Seymour]

Do you have a trade here? We got to go to break.

[Dan Nathan]

Home Depot reports on the 18th breaking out.

[Tim Seymour]

Excellent. Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Tim.

[Guy Adami]

I like Katie's energy trade. I like the MLPs trade even better. They've been rocking. Energy transfer still goes higher.

[Tim Seymour]

Katie Stockton, a fair lead.

[Katie Stockton]

Yeah, I'll go with ung, which is a natural gas fund and following.

[Tim Seymour]

Great to have you on the show today night, Katie. Yes, Dan Nathan.

[Melissa Lee]

It was great. Lyft. I was intrigued last night. I think the slight bookings miss is probably okay. Down 10%. There you go. Still intrigued. Yeah.

[Dan Nathan]

Now you can't tell, but the set looks like the Simon game too. Like if we had an overhead.

[Tim Seymour]

It's lit up, we see different colors. Whack it.

[Dan Nathan]

See that? That's a. We sold more Simons tonight than they've sold in the last 10 years. Devin, energy melms, thank you for watching.

[Tim Seymour]

Fast forward. See you back here tomorrow. 5 more fast all opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warn warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Learn how to.

[Melissa Lee]

Use AI to be more successful with CNBC Make it's new online course.

[Tim Seymour]

We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.

[Melissa Lee]

Go to CNBCmakeit.com AI and register now.