CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: The Great Rotation Underway… And A Technician Twofer For Apple
Release Date: July 1, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, Katie Stockton, Guy Adami, Rebecca Patterson, and Leslie Picker
1. Introduction to Market Rotation
Timestamp: [01:04]
Host Melissa Lee opens the episode by highlighting a significant shift in the market—from this year's top-performing stocks and sectors beginning to pull back, while previously lagging sectors are gaining traction. Panelists discuss the implications of this rotation for the second half of the year.
Tim Seymour:
"The long underperforming small caps jumped today. So, the defensive health care names, retailers like Target, insurers, and Staples."
([01:50])
2. Analyzing the Rotation
Timestamp: [02:24] - [08:21]
Dan Nathan emphasizes the unexpected nature of the market shift, noting the absence of a major strategy report guiding this change. He points out the performance of sectors like homebuilders and health care, suggesting a reassessment of previously aggressive growth trades.
Karen Finerman observes that sectors like retail, exemplified by Target and Abercrombie, surged due to their attractive valuations, albeit temporarily.
Guy Adami cautions against interpreting the day's gains as bullish, highlighting that the S&P 500 remains overbought despite positive movements in other sectors.
Katie Stockton:
"We are seeing some short term breakouts in those other segments of the market. So if they can hold on to those gains really just for a few days, that would be really helpful for a market that needs that breadth."
([07:36])
3. Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Dollar
Timestamp: [10:19] - [18:26]
Leslie Picker provides updates on President Trump's budget bill navigating through the Senate and the uncertainties surrounding its passage in the House. The bill's potential impact on the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio and borrowing costs is discussed.
Rebecca Patterson analyzes the weakening dollar, attributing it to increased Treasury issuance without corresponding demand, leading to higher borrowing costs and slower economic growth.
Karen Finerman questions the Federal Reserve's potential actions amidst political pressures, while Katie Stockton discusses technical indicators suggesting a possible bounce before a potential breakdown of the dollar index.
Katie Stockton:
"The momentum is obviously to the downside longer term. So it does increase the likelihood of a breakdown which would then put the next support around 95.2 for the dollar index."
([18:29])
4. Bank Stocks and Capital Return Plans
Timestamp: [22:20] - [26:35]
Following the Senate's approval of the budget bill, Leslie Picker reports that major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, and Bank of America, have announced significant dividend increases and share repurchase programs.
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss the implications of these capital return plans, noting the strong performance of bank stocks despite their recent underperformance.
Katie Stockton:
"With that we have short term breakouts in sort of the broader sector that might be worth a look."
([25:53])
5. Surge in Casino Stocks
Timestamp: [28:04] - [44:03]
The episode delves into the impressive performance of casino stocks fueled by a 19% year-over-year increase in gaming revenue from Macao in June.
Dan Nathan attributes the surge to the reopening of Macao and the leveraging of casino companies towards better earnings metrics.
Katie Stockton:
"The momentum shift is pretty meaningful. When you look at things like the monthly MACD indicator, the Melco looks like a giant double bottom formation."
([29:38])
6. Apple's Stock Performance and Technical Analysis
Timestamp: [31:12] - [36:55]
Apple Inc. is under the spotlight as its shares have declined over 15% this year. Carter Braxton provides a technical analysis, suggesting a potential short-term trade opportunity based on converging trend lines and moving averages.
Carter Braxton:
"If you were to include the 150 day moving average that comes into play around the 220 level, which would be the midpoint of the prior charts apex."
([34:11])
Katie Stockton supports this view, identifying a breakout from a short-term triangle formation with a price objective of approximately $238.
Katie Stockton:
"It's a breakout from what looks like a short term triangle formation. So with the price objective that you could get Apple to about 238."
([34:25])
7. Performance of Restaurant Stocks
Timestamp: [39:29] - [47:35]
Restaurant chains like Chipotle, Starbucks, McDonald's, and Sweetgreen are discussed in terms of their recent stock movements. Leslie Picker highlights positive earnings beats for Chipotle and Starbucks, while expressing concerns over Sweetgreen's same-store sales misses.
Katie Stockton:
"I'm interested in Chipotle. It has a breakout above its 200 day moving average and I think it is significant."
([45:18])
8. Homebuilders’ Technical Outlook
Timestamp: [47:35] - [48:00]
Katie Stockton analyzes the Home Construction ETF (ITB), noting a significant surge and identifying potential for further gains based on technical indicators like the weekly MACD and Demark indicators.
Katie Stockton:
"We're seeing the momentum shift to a pretty notable degree. It's on the weekly MACD's for one buy signals have been intact for a few weeks."
([39:29])
Concluding Remarks
The panel underscores the importance of technical indicators and sector rotations in navigating the current market landscape. While certain sectors like banking and homebuilding show potential due to strategic capital returns and positive technical signals, others such as technology and consumer-facing stocks present both opportunities and risks based on their valuations and market dynamics.
Melissa Lee:
"Fast Money is back into welcome back to fast money."
([20:16])
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC Universal, or their affiliates.