← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
The Latest AI Investments From Tech Giants… And A Bull Case Still In Place
00:43:23
Oracle planning to raise up to $50 billion for its AI infrastructure build, as Nvidia’s deal with OpenAI seems to still be on the table. Why the move could be the semi giant’s largest investment ever, and how the AI financing headlines will impact the artificial intelligence race. Plus Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin volatility rattling Wall Street, but Evercore’s Julian Emanuel isn’t letting the swings sour his bull case. Why he still sees the S&P climbing despite the commodity and crypto crunch. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together.
- [00:28]
Mike Kohler
EDWARD jones, Member, SIPC USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day like superheroes.
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Guy Adami
And sidekicks or auto and home insurance.
- [00:37]
Tim Seymour
With usaa, you can bundle your auto.
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Guy Adami
And home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a'@usaa.com bundle restrictions apply.
- [00:48]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Trucking higher. The Dow Transport's hitting a new record today. How much higher can the group go and what's it say about the US Economy and the state of the AI trade? Oracle raising cash to fund its ambitions while Nvidia's investment in open air seems to hit a roadblock. What it all means for the high tech stocks, plus, digging in on Disney's first earnings drop. What Bitcoin's pullback means for strategy stock and chomping on Chipotle. Do the options market expect a burrito blowout in tomorrow's report? We will find out. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio. Be at the nasdaq on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Mike Kohler. Well, stocks rebounding from Friday's losses. The S and P and Nasdaq each gaining half a percent. In the Dow leading the charge adding 515 points or just over a percent. While one key group really outperformed Dow Transports, rallying more than 3% to fresh records. With all 20 stocks in the index closing in positive territory. It's gained nearly 9% just since the start of 2026, is now up almost 16% over the past 12 months, leading the group higher today. Old Dominion Freight up 7 1/2 percent. Other trucking stocks, Ryder and Landstar each G roughly 6%. And some other big movers. FedEx rallying 4% to all time highs, while container shipper Matson rose to levels last seen in November 2024. So given the transportation sector's read on real world demand, are the gains positive for the broader economy? Do you recall Dow theory?
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Dan Nathan
Oh, sure. Well, I was part of it when.
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Tim Seymour
Well, she Almost, didn't she? She asked it as a question because she wasn't sure that you did recall.
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Dan Nathan
Well, no.
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Tim Seymour
Well, do you know.
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Dan Nathan
Well, I take that pressure Evangeline and.
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Melissa Lee
That helps me really remember everything.
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Dan Nathan
It actually works.
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Tim Seymour
She likes it.
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Melissa Lee
But in theory this should be very good news. It's not bad news and for the.
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Dan Nathan
Stock, it's not bad news. Now I will say this. Obviously the economy's changed a lot since Dow theory. I don't think transports are nearly as important, but it's not a bad thing and it speaks to the robust consumer and still spending again, we can quibble whether or not they should be, but they are. FedEx finally growing into a valuation that I think we've talked about for years. The one that interests me is ups. If our crack staff back in EC can put up a long term chart, you will see we're recently traded down to the 2020 low. Ish. We have bounce. We're about to take out a trend line that's been in place for the last three years. And on valuation it's as compelling as it's probably been in quite some time. So to me, if you want to play the, the catch up trade here, it's in the form of UPS moms.
- [03:21]
Melissa Lee
I mean oil has also been weak and so maybe that plays into some of these advances.
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Tim Seymour
Well, let's not get to too high over this. How about this ISM today, The ism manufacturing was the best one since August of 22nd. It's the first time we've actually shown that some, all the components in it were, were, were higher. The orders component was very impressive and tends to, you know, essentially resemble Fed surveys that we've seen on a regional basis that said that manufacturing was better. I mean President Trump could be taking a victory lap here because you can see manufacturing has inflected in a way. Now this is one number but if this is truly an inflection, it's time to buy airlines and it's time to buy shippers because these are the sectors that tend to really outperform in the 12 months after an inflection. Let's, let's be clear. This is the first positive print. So I should say above 50 which means expansion as opposed to below 50 which is contraction since February of last year. So 11 straight down months but really the best one in a long time. I don't think manufacturing has turned the corner. FedEx is up 35% since September. UPS, which I'm long and I think goes a lot higher and pays you 6% to be in that trade is I think a great way. But I think the airlines are next.
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Guy Adami
It's funny on the manufacturing front, I mean if you do have an economy that is inflecting and you know, again, it would be nice to see that jobs data, but it kind of could kind of square the circle a little bit. You know, when you think about, you know, yields and you think about the 10 year and you think about what the President wants from the new Fed chair, which doesn't think, you know, it doesn't really seem that that's kind of his M.O. that he's going to come here in, in May and just kind of lower interest rates. I mean the focus I think on his part is kind of reduce that balance sheet. And why would you be lowering interest rates into an economy that happens to be inflecting? So that's something obviously we don't, you know, at least a few months or so. But going back to the, the transports, you know, the largest holding in that I y t is Uber. And it's worth noting that here's a company that you would think in a, you know, in consumer environment that's doing okay and an economy that's doing better than many expect that that would be trading better. And you know, you look at this thing and you say to yourself it's down 20%. And we know that there's some headwinds from Robotaxi and the like. I'm going to take the over on Robo Taxis and I'm going to look at what Uber is doing and say, you know, what their plan to partner with some of these folks, whether it be way more, that's probably going to give them some cover over the next couple of years or so. So Uber to me looks more interesting than some of those more industrial sort of names.
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Melissa Lee
Maintaining the asset light structure does need.
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Guy Adami
To be like, I mean listen, you go to, you go to Austin right now, you want to get awaymo, you have to do it through Uber.
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Melissa Lee
Yeah. Mike, what do you make of the moves in transports?
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Mike Kohler
Yeah, I mean the first thing I would say, I mean obviously the truckers did extremely well today, but the valuation of that as a group has been kind of hard to get my arms around. And FedEx is a little bit above their longer term MO I think I'm with Tim on UPS. UPS looks reasonably valued here and I think the airlines do too. You know, particularly maybe Delta and United. I think this would probably be still an attractive place to be and perhaps some of the rails too. So I mean Rails, certainly not, not asset light as far as the business is concerned. But in terms of their historical valuation still, I think reasonably priced here. And we did see a decent bit of bullish activity on the option side, several of those.
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Melissa Lee
All right, we've got some breaking news out of the White House we want to get to. Eamon Javish has got the details. Eamon.
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Guy Adami
Melissa?
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Dan Nathan
That's right. President Trump just taking some questions from reporters in a roundtable session in the Oval Office. He was announcing the creation of a strategic minerals reserve that the White House is calling Operation Vault. They're going to have $10 billion worth of financing as part of this from the ex IM bank and $2 billion from the private sector. Mary Barra, the CEO of General Motors, joined the president in the Oval Office just a short time ago. As you can, before the announcement of the mineral reserve, the president was asked a number of questions by reporters in the room. One was on this question of the Federal Reserve investigation. Remember, the U.S. attorney's office is investigating Jerome Powell and whether or not he lied to Congress. Senator Tillis has said that he won't vote for the president's replacement for Powell until that investigation is resolved. Tillis says the president was asked if he wants the U.S. attorney's office to stand down on that investigation and he said no. He said they have to take it to the end of the investigation. Continue. Separately, I asked the president about the Wall Street Journal reporting on the royal Family of Abu Dhabi investing hundreds of millions of dollars with World Liberty Financial, his family's cryptocurrency company. I asked him why he agreed to take that investment. The president said he didn't know about the investment. He said that investment was handled by his sons. He said, I know that crypto is a big thing and they like it. A lot of people like it. My sons are handling that. My family is handling that. And I guess they get investments and from different people. Melissa, back over to you.
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Melissa Lee
All right, Eamon. Eamon Jabers at the White House asking some very pointed questions to President Trump. I don't know where you want to begin.
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Dan Nathan
Well, let's start with the rare earths, because I think at the 28th of January, we were sitting here, an announcement came out, those stocks cratered. I don't know exactly what the announcement was, but we talked about it and we collectively said, don't run too far from these are a lot of chapters left. I wouldn't be surprised to see an about face. So pull up MP materials. My instincts suggest it's probably higher on the back of this announcement, we just.
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Melissa Lee
Had the report last week that there would be no floor in the price. And we saw all those stocks really react sharply to the downside. I mean, not an easy trade to be in, even knowing that the government has some sort of a stake in it.
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Tim Seymour
The problem with the trade is how have you gotten exposure to that in the United States outside of mp? And let's, you know, the name of this is the strategically, the Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve Reserve. So what, what makes up that group of strategic reserves, in other words? I, I think copper is part of that and I think so again, you know, we don't really need to spend a lot of time. I forget where this is in today's conversation. Mel, our metals chat, what's going on with gold and silver, but it was another day of volatility in that space. But again, I'm not running too far away from some of those dynamics because this is exactly why they remain strategic.
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Melissa Lee
All right, meantime, two big funding stores in the air space. Oracle announcing it plans to raise up to $50 billion to boost its infrastructure, build out this to meet demand from its cloud customers. Shares were up as much as 4% earlier in the day, but ended the day lower. And Nvidia's $100 billion open air investment may not be a done deal. CEO Jensen Huang has reportedly criticized the company's business strategy, expressed concerns about competition from the likes of Anthropic as well as Google. Over the weekend, he denied that he was upset with Open Air, but said he would not invest any more than the $100 billion shares of Nvidia took a steep leg down late in the day, falling almost 3%. I'm curious what your take is on all of this.
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Guy Adami
All right, so OpenAI, let's start. You know, we're all rooting for Sam Altman here. This all has to work at Open Air. It doesn't work for anybody, in my opinion. And so when I think about, you know, just the strategy that this company has, I mean, for a long time, Sam Altman said that they're not going to an advertising model anytime soon and what are they doing right now they're going to an advertising model. You know, I think the thought that they were going to be able to support the sort of losses that they have and continue this sort of investments that they have committed to making on just a subscription model, and obviously, you know, enterprise at some point will be a part of that. But this is a company that, you know, if it was a publicly traded company, And I know that there are private markets and this stock would be trading very poorly, in my opinion, because there seems to be not a whole heck of a lot of clarity about what their business model is other than spending gobs of money to try to get to AGI before anybody else. So to me, obviously, this is at the middle of it, I think in video, the fact that that stock was down based on the pullback of that commitment. And I get it, you know, the idea that they were just going to plunk 100 billion doll, but this is a company open AI that really does have to raise, you know, $100 billion. And so, you know, again, I think that every time you see someone pull back from that, it's not going to be great for sentiment in the entire ecosystem.
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Tim Seymour
Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure. Are we all pulling for Sam Altman? I mean, I don't, I don't. What I'm saying is he better be.
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Guy Adami
Successful or the whole thing is going to come crashing down.
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Tim Seymour
Well, his whole thing, but I mean, there's no question what's going on around him. So, I mean, I think also Nvidia is smart to at least voice that they, as the largest infrastructure company in the world by far, aren't necessarily writing blank checks. And I think it's probably about holding people more accountable and even some of the most important customers you have in the world. I just think these are the types of headlines that are continuing to be very complicated and it continues to emphasize this circular investment dynamic. But, but it comes back to Nvidia. Nvidia is the one that has the cash flow, that has the balance sheet, and is, as far as I'm concerned, in the driver's seat on all of these.
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Melissa Lee
I actually thought that Nvidia stock could be higher on the back of the report that they are showing some fiscal discipline when it comes to investing in.
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Dan Nathan
I could have made that argument. Tim makes a great point. But then I thought the other side of that is, and this is a, this is sort of a term we've used, the sanctity of Capex and we've questioned whether or not it's written in stone as much it is. And, and I think we learned over the weekend that maybe not. So, you know, we play the game. If you had known all these things, right.
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Melissa Lee
How would the stock.
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Dan Nathan
I thought the market was going to get cratered today. On the back of what Bitcoin was doing. On the back of this announcement, a couple other things. And, and on the back of the bond market which, by the way, yields continue to go higher. Obviously, that was not the case.
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Melissa Lee
All right, for more on what's next for big tech and the trade, let's bring in Dan Ives. He's the managing director, Senior equity analyst at Wedbush. Dan, great to see you.
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Dan Ives
Great to be here.
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Melissa Lee
So walk us through because, because if you think about this whole, the circular sort of trade, if Nvidia doesn't invest the money in OpenAI, OpenAI doesn't necessarily have the money or has to get the money elsewhere in order to pay Oracle. And so these things are all connected.
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Dan Ives
Look, I think the first thing is Oracle needed to get this out there. I mean, put the financing plan in place. I actually think it's important, not just for Oracle, but for the tech trade show, the 45, 50 billion that you're going to raise. So I actually think is a huge step in the right direction. Look, in terms of Nvidia, Jensen's playing a game of poker as well, in terms of, you know, open air, the investment also competitively with Alphabet as well as others. Look, I think they're going to get the 100 billion, but this is, look, it's the black cloud over the tech trade and I think you want to see them come out. You want to see Jensen talk about it, you need to see Oracle talk about it. Because, look, then you contrast like the numbers that we're seeing, Palantir and others, there's the growth there, but this is the cloud that's overhanging and I think that's what needs to be addressed and I think they're starting to address it.
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Melissa Lee
Jensen, in some of his reported comments, citing the competition from Google as well as Anthropic specifically. And those are sort of outside of that circular financing ecosystem. In your view, just stepping back, are those investments more sound in that there is less sort of dependency on other players in order to meet goals?
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Dan Ives
Yeah, I think there is definitely. I think, you know, there's more stability. And I think this is one where you're building a new economy. When it comes to what's happened with Open Air, you're building it essentially a new consumer and enterprise economy. So we're talking about 100 billion here, but ultimately trillions over the course of time. But that's why I think the tech trade, I think this is an important week, not just in terms of numbers, but just showing the financing, putting it out there instead of this sort of CDS spread and sort of, you know, maybe this sort of, you know, third derivative that's sort of been I think clearly an overhang on all these tech names.
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Guy Adami
All right, Daniel, this might surprise you, but I get labeled sometimes as a perma bank.
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Tim Seymour
No.
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Guy Adami
Okay, well, but you are clearly an unabashed bull. Okay, the AI revolution is something you coined. You know what some of the criticisms are about that. Okay, you and I talked for a long time. Okay, what if you're going to take the other side of that, okay, how does this thing at least take a pause? How do we get into a digestion phase? How do we start seeing some down round in private companies? What is some of the pushback that you get from the buy side as it relates to again this universal bullishness on the AI revolution? Because it's not going to be a straight line obviously one way. And I'm just curious, how do you take a step back and what is some of the pushback you get to that enthusiasm?
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Dan Ives
Yeah, no doubt. Look, I think earnings season last week, you saw Microsoft, I think it's the, it's this balance between capex and modernization. Any sort of issue right there, investors are going to kind of take a step back and I think that's something that you're almost fighting sort of a headwind there in terms of as they're going after from a capex perspective, to me the biggest worry is energy in terms of just the shortage in the US that's something. And more data centers on the construction today than active data centers. And then of course us, China, I mean any sensitivity to some sort of tariff, just like I saw when I was in Davos and that you combine all together. The question is not about the use cases, the fourth industrial revolution, the spending. It's about some of these other issues as well as the financing that are going to be clearly a spotlight on in terms of a market like this.
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Tim Seymour
So Dan, there's a big spotlight then on, you know, equity linked issuance, which essentially Oracle has announced. We've gotten some detail on it. This isn't, this isn't just a hypothetical anymore. What does this do for you as an analyst looking at companies? I mean Oracle has been a cash flow machine like anybody. The dividend they say is intact. That's great. But equity linked issuance begins to have a lot of traditional investors say well I'm more concerned about this than I might have been if this was first of all straight debt is its own thing. But equity linked issuance is certainly dilutive. It was less of a dilution as the than people had expected thoughts on that in terms of value multiples for the sector.
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Dan Ives
Well, as an analyst, you have to factor it in, because the reality is, is that, okay, what's the raise going to be? How dilutive, how quickly does it. Does it ultimately cause them to pause? Because when you look at Oracle, you talk about growth going from 15% to 30% to 50% in terms of 300 billion that's out there in terms to go after. So I think, look, this. The nature of playing this game, because the reality is for Oracle, they don't have to play the game, but for them to be a core player in this AI revolution, it's what they need to do now. And I think that's something investors, you see with the stock, they're willing to take that bet, but now they have to execute on it.
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Melissa Lee
Dan, you're here. So I have to ask you about the Barron's article that ran over the weekend. It is titled, he's Wall Street's biggest showman, should you trust him? And basically, it's. It says that you have a lot of overlapping interests. And I guess at the heart of it is that, you know, the Dan Ives ecosystem only works in a tech bull market. And I'm wondering, you know, what your commentary on that is, because without, you know, an AI boom, without the Bitcoin boom, all these sorts of, you know, very enthusiastic trades out there these days, your empire would not be as big.
- [18:28]
Dan Ives
Yeah, look, I mean, I've been a tech bull for, what, 25 years? And I think it's something where it's created other opportunities in terms of, you know, whether it's advisor ETF, you know, which is based on the Ives AI 30. You know, my view is, is that this is something where I live and breathe the AI revolution. I'm passionate about tech. You know, I give charity, you know, relative to teaching kids the AI revolution. And it's something that's so important in my role. So it's. I get the scrutiny, but everything's vetted. If I chew gum, Wedbush needs to approve it. And it's something where I get, you know, this sort of. You're disrupting the role of a typical analyst. But it's something where, because of the AI revolution, the passion and the opportunities, that's what's sort of been put in front of me, and I'll continue to evaluate it.
- [19:18]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. Not that Dan needs me to say this, but I will say it. I mean, showman aside, and he is, he happens to be extraordinarily rigorous in his work, and he's as diligent and I think I don't know what the word I'm looking for.
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Melissa Lee
Thorough.
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Dan Nathan
An analyst as I've met in all the years I've been doing it and we've been on the show now for 19 years. And you know, when Dan's wrong, which is seldom he talks about, and when he's right, which is often he doesn't. And here he is today, you know, talking about an article which I get, you know, you have to sell magazines. But he still does his work very well.
- [19:47]
Dan Ives
Thanks for those words. I appreciate it.
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Melissa Lee
Dan, it's always good to see you.
- [19:49]
Dan Ives
No, thank you.
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Melissa Lee
You. Thank you. Dan Ives of Wedbush. So what do you think this does to Oracle?
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Tim Seymour
Look, this is by the way, Oracle, I think people know is the O in the timbo.
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Melissa Lee
Yes.
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Tim Seymour
My view is that Oracle is priced in subtractive AI in terms of what they're going to do in terms of build out their capacity. It's, it's not only taken a hit to the multiple, but it's taken a hit to where the stock actually was valued even before this was even brought up. Up. I think Oracle is interesting here. I do think that this, this cap raise has to be done in the context of fiscal discipline. I mean it's not a straight up and I think that that's why it was an important day. I think the dilutive element of this equity linked issuance was less than had been expected. I think that's a kind of a net positive. But it's hard to think that the stock can rally right now in a difficult period. That's why we play in the long game, in the acronym game, of course.
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Dan Nathan
Yes, we are playing a lot, Mike. You know, there seems to be some. We've used the term existential risk around software. I will tell you because you texted me on Friday the you and my junk. If you want to throw that. It was junk on Friday. So software under pressure, out of question. But to Tim's point, you don't get paid at halftime. And we're only in early February.
- [21:01]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, shares of Palantir on the move after reporting the numbers out of the quarter. How the company's faring the air race. That's next. And speaking of earnings, Disney getting hit after its earnings report this morning. The rally, rough stock reaction. And when we can learn who is taking over for CEO Bob Iger. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back in two thy ticket lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs. Yeah, they do Here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Get it with the times. With the times. You're playing the loot. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?
- [21:43]
Tim Seymour
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [21:50]
Melissa Lee
If you your parent or spouse served in the military, you could join our family. Our members saved an average of $70 a month on auto insurance when they switched. Tap the banner or visit usaa.com join today to check your eligibility restrictions apply. What do the steam engine, electricity and AI have in common? They don't just change how we work, they transform entire economies. Where the Internet Lives is an award winning podcast from Google about the unseen world of data centers. This season we're going inside the AI revolution. From farmers using AI to analyze soil data to researchers discovering new medicines, a new era of AI innovation is here. Listen to where the Internet lives. Wherever you get your podcasts, we've got a news alert on Waymo. Mackenzie Segalos has got much more on this Mac. Hey Mel. So Waymo says it's just closed a new funding round, $16 billion at 126 billion post money, nearly triple the valuation at its last raise. The round was led by three new names joining the cap table, Dragonier, DST Global and Sequoia. Returning investors Andreessen, Horowitz, Bessemer and Mubadala Capital. The sovereign investment firm based in Abu Dhabi also invested in a raise that was reportedly 3x oversubscribed. Now Alphabet, it remains the majority owner as they have in past rounds. Bloomberg had reported that 13 of that $16 billion came from Waymo's parent company. But this deal does meaningfully broaden outside ownership, bringing in late stage growth funds, crossover investors and global sovereign capital. Clear sign that one, this is no longer a moonshot bet, but a scaled commercial platform and two, that it really needs the cash. Waymo says the capital will fund expansion into 20 plus new cities globally, including Tokyo, Tokyo and London, as it accelerates fleet growth and international rollout at a 350 million annual run rate. According to FDA reporting. It needs an injection of cash to help fund that growth. Mel Mac, Thanks. Mackenzie Segalos we were just talking about Waymo in terms of Uber's benefit.
- [23:58]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I mean it's interesting. Three times oversubscribed. You know, you say to yourself okay, well if you want to invest in Robotax, you have to buy into a trillion and a half dollar company that really doesn't have any sort of footprint right now. For the Robotaxi you have to believe what Elon says about the opportunity. And there is a huge opportunity. But really it comes down to when do you believe this is going to be out there and how are they going to fund their expansion?
- [24:25]
Tim Seymour
Well, it's fascinating that when you look at at Waymo and YouTube, you've got two companies that are seen as massive disruptors and very much by the competitive landscape within their industry, by their peers, acknowledged to be where the threats lie. Certainly you hear about this from Netflix as it relates to YouTube. Is that really part of the sum of the parts is 126 billion in the Google valuation here still pales in comparison to Google overall. But I think YouTube is probably the bigger mispricing, especially when you start to look at that against, you know, Netflix wherever you want to compare, which is.
- [25:00]
Dan Nathan
Why, you know, we had talked about the reasonable that I Google at 30 times is not ridiculous. It's probably fairly priced. I don't think it's overpriced by any stretch of imagination.
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Melissa Lee
All right, we've got an earnings alert on Palantir. The conference call continues. Shares jumping after software company beat top and bottom lines gave good guidance. CNBC's Morgan Brennan's got the details. Hey, Morgan. Hey, Melissa. That's right. Well, it's beat and race for Palantir again. CEO Alex Karp telling me the numbers are reaching, quote, escape velocity in the US which now accounts for more than three quarters of revenue. U.S. governor revenue up 66%. That's despite the shutdown. U.S. commercial surging 137% forecast for this year, topping street estimates too for revenue for free cash flow. Operating income. U.S. commercial revenue expected to grow at least 115% in 2026. And Karp saying, quote, we are very focused on Palantir. But what does it mean for other companies when Palantir is forecasting 61% growth off of a massive base with 93% growth in the US and a rule of 127. You mentioned calls underway right now. We're monitoring it. They're running through the numbers. They're also given laying out some use cases for their technology and their AI applications. And I think one of the most notable things that's coming out come out of this so far is that they're seeing with some of their commercial customers a situation where there are more jobs being created, particularly on things like factory floors and in manufacturing because of what AI is enabling with upskilling. Back over to you, Morgan. Thanks, Morgan Brennan. We saw the stock as high as 8% higher in the after hour session on the back of the results up by almost 5% at this point. It's in a sector that has had a lot of difficulty. You could make the case though that this is a defense company and so therefore should be a little bit more immune from software swings. But here we are, defense.
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Dan Nathan
You know one of the reasons people didn't like it, you know, four or five years ago was because it was a defense company relying too much on the government. Now you're saying it's defensive for those reasons. So, so it's 145 ish has been this low. We, we held it and defended and here we are now. Quarter was fine. I don't think there's anything wrong with the quarter. It's the valuation. Let's see how it trades over the next day or so.
- [26:59]
Tim Seymour
I saw a note today from Jefferies where they said that 38% of the software sector is trading basically oversold on a 14 day RSI. We know that the momentum and the sentiment around the sector is, is been terrible but it's really extraordinarily terrible. You know, Palantir is a difficult, difficult valuation for me and I owned it whatever until about 50 bucks ago. I just think there are other places in software to get that value. I think Salesforce is fascinating at these levels and I do think it's not time to just assume that is going to displace all that.
- [27:31]
Melissa Lee
Mike, would you see in Palantir today?
- [27:33]
Mike Kohler
Yeah, I mean there's a decent amount of activity as you would expect going into the print. We do, we do own this one actually, despite the rather heady valuation. But it is certainly a technical trade. I think the levels that guy referenced are important in terms of support. But I think it also needs to break out north of 160 because that's really the long term moving average here. And that downtrend that we've seen that just started relatively recently. I think it has to definitively break above that before you can really start getting into it.
- [28:02]
Dan Nathan
Yeah.
- [28:02]
Guy Adami
By the way, I mean it was a huge guide for this year if you think about it on a revenue basis. You know, they go from 6. 2 billion to 7.2. But I think we can make the argument government that that was kind of in the stock. The stock is up 5%. I'm surprised it's not up more, which says something about it. And you know the breakdown between commercial and, and the government, it's about 5050 by the way and the commercial is much higher. Margin than that. So it's interesting. I wouldn't want to see the military and all that. So I don't want to be labeled. If I'm them a, you know, a.
- [28:31]
Melissa Lee
Defense company, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [28:36]
Tim Seymour
All eyes on Iger's replacement. The rough reaction in shares of Disney as investors look past results and hone in on CEO succession plans, the top.
- [28:47]
Guy Adami
Contenders and when we could learn who's taking over.
- [28:51]
Tim Seymour
Plus, another data report delayed by the latest government shutdown and why our next.
- [28:57]
Guy Adami
Guest is not concerned about the recent commodity crunch.
- [29:01]
Tim Seymour
You're watching Fast Money live from the.
- [29:03]
Guy Adami
NASDAQ Market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [29:11]
Tim Seymour
Comcast business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking, frictionless paying favorite shopping destinations. It's how nationwide restaurants become touchscreen ordering quick serving eateries and how hospitals become the patient scanning data, managing healthcare facilities that we all depend on. With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnerships, Comcast business is powering the engine of modern business powering possibilities, restriction supply.
- [29:40]
Melissa Lee
Oh, could this vintage store be any cuter? Right? And the best part? They accept Discover. Except Discover in a little place like this? I don't think so. Jennifer. Oh yeah, huh? Discover is accepted where I like to shop. Come on, baby, get with the times. Right? So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback, I think.
- [30:03]
Tim Seymour
Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.
- [30:11]
Melissa Lee
The Jack Welch Management Institute at Strayer University helps you go from I know the way to I've arrived with our top 10 ranked online MBA. Gain skills you can learn today and apply tomorrow. Get ready to go from make it happen to made it happen and keep striving. Visit strayer.edu Jack Welch MBA to learn more. Strayer University is certified to operate in Virginia by Chev and its many campuses, including at 2121 15th Street north in Arlington, Virginia. Welcome back to Fast Money. A not so magical day for Disney shares dropping more than 7% after the entertainment giant gave weaker than expected guidance. It was the stock's worst day since its last quarterly report back in November. Investors waiting to see who will be named to replace CEO Bob Iger of the Disney board expected to meet this week to vote on a successor. Bloomberg reporting that current parks head John demaro Josh d' Amaro is the frontrunner there. So what's up with Disney here, Tim? What you hear in the quarter.
- [31:11]
Tim Seymour
I tell you ultimately some DTC growth. The succession is I think a big part of the overhang in the stock. I don't know that people expected anything to come out today but I ultimately for a company that was it three quarters ago gave us absurdly precise and long term forecasts to have some of that not even be totally following through. I just think it really is this brings a bright light under what is the change at Disney that's going to change this. That's going to actually be a catalyst to unlocking what has been a successful DTC streaming business. And a transition does seem to be gaining some mental but I don't think there's any confidence really what the model is here and it's, and it's, it's two different companies. It feels like two different companies and feels like they're not aligned on the.
- [31:56]
Melissa Lee
Other side of the company for Parks I mean International is going to be a headwind in the current quarter.
- [32:00]
Dan Nathan
It's been knows what reason treading water now for three years. You can say 10 years so I'll back out 2020. I mean you had that huge run up into Covid and then the subsequent but you're right if you back that out for 10 years it's been nowhere. Valuation has always been been quasi reasonable. You know you just had Jon Stewart on your prior show and he broke it down really well and say Jon Stewart. I didn't, I'm sorry I was like.
- [32:25]
Melissa Lee
We had John Stewart. That's a no.
- [32:26]
Dan Nathan
Jim. He's well anyway I mean no man's land. I mean it's there's no, I don't see any compelling reason to be in or out of this name right now.
- [32:35]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, commodities and crypto getting crunch but the drop ins drops in gold, silver, bitcoin are getting getting in the way of our next guest. Optimism. Why evercourse Julian Emanuel still believes the market will climb when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to FAST Money. Stocks kicking off February trading in the green. The Dow jumping more than 500 points. The S&P 500. Nasdaq both climbing more than half a percent. The S and P snapping a three day losing streak. Big jump in memory stocks Micron, Seagate, Western Digital, Apple all in the green today. Sandisk leading the charge up more than 15%. That stock up already 180% this year. Shares of Apple meantime also higher up more than 4%. The stock now virtually flat for the year but still 6 1/2% off its record set two months ago. Gold and Silver both settling down again today, hitting their lowest level since early January. Silver coming off a 30% drop on Friday and some more after hours action and XP semi lower despite topping earnings and revenue estimates. Estimates and testing equipment designer Teradyne jumping after a big earnings beat and strong guidance. Well meantime the Board of Bureau, excuse me of Labor Statistics delaying the release of the January jobs report originally scheduled for this Friday due to the partial government shutdown. The agency is saying the release will be scheduled upon the resumption of government funding. Congress on Saturday failed to agree to a spending plan due to disagreements over homeland security funding, but a House floor vote on a funding package is expected this week. Our next guest thinks the delay is unlikely to derail the market. Julian Emanuel is Evercore ISI Senior Managing Director. Julian, good to have you.
- [34:09]
Guy Adami
Good to be here.
- [34:11]
Melissa Lee
You think the market's going to actually thrive and it's going to be driven by basically the tech trade. You're not worried about sort of the hiccups that we've seen recently in the AI trade?
- [34:21]
Tim Seymour
Well I will go back to December and the concerns about debt financing for.
- [34:28]
Dan Ives
The AI buildout started to surface.
- [34:30]
Tim Seymour
Office and unequivocally the mood around tech is as cautious as we've seen it since any time since Chat GPT was introduced to the world. And you know frankly I never expected to be a contrarian in our view that we think tech will continue to lead the bull market higher. I love being a contrarian here and you look at a day like today there were lots of news items, volumes, a lot of them not so great, certainly challenging particularly against the backdrop of gold and silver tanking as well once more and the market traded beautifully which you would never have said at one in the morning when I was awake but you know and the S and P's were down 90 handles Julian so I agree with you that the gold silver crypto noise is is not necessarily signed signs that this market is falling apart. I think today's ism I'm just curious your view on this because I know you've been bullish on tech. I know you think those are the horses that will lead. We know they are weighted to lead the market but I look at this this transformation in terms of what's going on. You've had trucking rates. This isn't just something that just happened have been at two year highs going into this. What do you think about this ism? What does that mean for the broader we got an email from my transports analysts mid morning. These things are ripping what's going, what's just, you know, incredible. And it's even more incredible when you think about the fact that we will probably find out that the cold of the last week or two is going to take a little bite out of economic activity. Definitely temporary the way things are setting up. But the backdrop is the economy is really strong.
- [36:12]
Dan Nathan
Kevin warsh, the market, clearly for at least a day the market was not happy. But, but is that just a one day event or is there going to be more to this?
- [36:20]
Tim Seymour
No, that's a one day. I just, I think you think about the psychology. What is the probability that President Trump is going to nominate someone who's hawkish? When President Trump is, you know, focused on providing liquidity and getting rates lower, the balance sheet argument is likely something to be put off for another day, certainly well past the midterms.
- [36:46]
Melissa Lee
So you said you love being a contrarian in the tech trade. Does it also apply to the subsector in tech that would be software?
- [36:53]
Tim Seymour
Well, I think the next couple of.
- [36:55]
Dan Ives
Days are very key.
- [36:56]
Tim Seymour
We obviously had that one announcement after the close today. That stock seems to be trading okay. You have a bunch of names, mostly second tier. But the mood after last week's price reaction on the biggest, biggest tech giant, software giant of them all, really very cautious and these valuations are really troughing in our view. And frankly a lot of the noise around the latest development called multiple book is, is something that in fact could be a tailwind for software companies rather than a perceived headwind.
- [37:36]
Melissa Lee
I, I hear a little contrarian coming out when it comes to software.
- [37:40]
Tim Seymour
Julian and Microsoft.
- [37:43]
Melissa Lee
Julian, good to see you. Julian Emanuel, would you agree?
- [37:48]
Dan Nathan
Well, let me take the gold portion of this. So if he's right about Kevin Warsh, if the president put him in the seat not to be a hawk, but obviously to lower rates, then the gold move is extraordinarily overdone to the downside. So, you know, Julian's probably spot on with this. I think regardless, there are a lot of reasons to like gold, especially if he is right.
- [38:06]
Melissa Lee
Mike, your thoughts?
- [38:08]
Mike Kohler
Yeah, I mean, I tend to agree with Guy here. I mean, first of all, silver definitely needed to fall back and it has certainly done so. It has come right back to the 50 in both gold and silver. We did see unusual call buying today. So I think there are some people who are starting to dip their toe in the water, although it usually takes a little bit of time for this to wash out a bit. And the final point I would make is take a look at a name Like Microsoft. As people are sitting here getting panicky about the AI trade, this is one that from a valuation perspective at least seems good. Even if relative to its long term moving average it's, it's a little bit weak.
- [38:42]
Melissa Lee
Would you buy Microsoft?
- [38:44]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I'd start picking out here, you know the one thing I'd say about these enterprise software names, I mean listen, if the market starts to go lower because there's a digestion phase of AI, they're not going to act any better, they're not going to be defensive. And I'm looking across the board. I mean most of these biggest names, whether it's Oracle, obviously we just talked about Salesforce, Adobe, Figma, Workday, Servicenow, I mean they're all down 20 plus percent. I mean, so there's something that's broken here, at least from investor psychology. So do they, do they join the party in a rip roaring bull market? You better hope so because if not, I mean these things are uninvestable.
- [39:14]
Tim Seymour
I'll just say quickly on Microsoft, if you were long Microsoft going into that number, you better be a buyer of that weakness because there was no reason to, to belong into that trade. If you're worried about multiple or this and that the stock has done nothing for two and a half years. This is, this is a place where you're supposed to own it.
- [39:29]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, Chipotle earnings out tomorrow. We will run through what the options pits are pricing in for the fast casual restaurant. Details straight ahead. Welcome back to Fast Money. A huge slate of earnings still to come this week, including Chipotle after the bell tomorrow. CMG trying to rebound after posting its second worst year ever in 2025. Options traders are betting we could have a burrito blowout on our hands. That sounds burrito blowout on our hands.
- [40:00]
Tim Seymour
Careful guy.
- [40:00]
Melissa Lee
After tomorrow's results, Mike Co's got the action there, Mike.
- [40:03]
Mike Kohler
I mean usually when we talk about a blowout in earnings, that's to the upside, but that's not what options traders seem to be betting on this time. So right now the options market is implying a move of about 10% that's larger than the company has averaged over the last eight quarters. But it is in line with the sharper moves that we've seen over the last four puts. Puts traded more than double their average volume and outpaced calls by more than two to one as well. And the most active contract were the January 37 and a half puts for next year. We saw a buyer of 5,000 of those paying $4.70 a contract. So it would seem that the pressure that the stock has been under, some options traders believe that's going to continue.
- [40:42]
Melissa Lee
The beauty of Burrito Blow it is that it could be out to the upside or to the downside, but there are pressures, real pressures for Chipotle's customer base when it comes to the younger consumer, lower economic demographic.
- [40:54]
Dan Nathan
When the growth trajectory is higher, valuations don't matter. When they stop valuations, the only thing that matters and that's happened over the last year and a half or two years and you know, now when you look at it on a valuation basis with the comps deteriorating, it suggests it's still an expensive stock. So Mike suggests 10% to the downside, that's what four bucks or so gets you to 33 maybe. It's interesting there, but it still feels like it has room to downslide.
- [41:20]
Tim Seymour
Led I think this is a prove me story at this point. There's no question to me that the jury is out in terms of where there's the next real growth story here. You don't pay up for growth here if you don't have growth. And I think I agree, the demo isn't fantastic. The margin story is not fantastic. Brian Nichols got a lot of work here.
- [41:37]
Melissa Lee
It does have a lot of menu innovation coming on.
- [41:41]
Tim Seymour
I just. Excuse me.
- [41:44]
Melissa Lee
Protein focused menu.
- [41:45]
Tim Seymour
He played second for the Boston Red Sox value offering.
- [41:49]
Melissa Lee
And that, you know, Oppenheimer saying the chairs are well positioned for a spicy revival story this year. Spicy revival.
- [41:56]
Dan Nathan
I like when you said, see, you were teeing us up and none of us took the bait for what Burrito blowout on your hands. I mean, that's just.
- [42:03]
Mike Kohler
You're just dying for one of us.
- [42:04]
Melissa Lee
No, I was just saying that. It just didn't sound very good.
- [42:07]
Dan Nathan
No, what's happened to me?
- [42:08]
Melissa Lee
I mean, if you're going to have a blowout, you don't want it there on your hands anyway.
- [42:12]
Dan Nathan
Well, I just said that, that Tim.
- [42:14]
Tim Seymour
Yeah.
- [42:15]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, we are getting more details on Nvidia's investment in Open Air. Sam Altman weighing in the details in two. We've got a news alert on some new developments in the Nvidia Open Air deal. Christina Parks Neville has got the details. Christina, Melissa OpenAI CEO really trying to ease tensions right now. Tweeting just moments ago, quote, we love working with Nvidia and they make the best, best AI chips in the world. We hope to be a gigantic customer for a very long time. I don't get where all of this insanity is coming from. The insanity he might be referring to as a new Reuters report that OpenAI is unsatisfied with some of Nvidia's latest artificial intelligence chips and has sought alternatives since last year, which, by the way, we already know that OpenAI has deals with Broadcom, Cerebus, AMD, Reuters saying that OpenAI is not, not satisfied specifically with the speed at which Nvidia's hardware can actually spit out answers to ChatGPT users for specific types of problems such as software development, for example. Nvidia, though, saying that customers, quote, continue to choose Nvidia for inference because we delivered the best performance and total cost of ownership at scale. The drama really just started last Friday when the Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia's promise of $100 billion or up to $100 billion and on for OpenAI was on thin ice. This was an investment that was first came to light last September. Nvidia CEO confirmed on the weekend that it was never a commitment, but that Nvidia would still be investing in OpenAI. I can confirm through sources that Nvidia is still part of the latest OpenAI funding round set to close very soon. Jensen also alluded to it in the weekend, over the weekend in type pacing. It could be potentially Nvidia's biggest investment ever. There's just not a lot of clarity on when that money is going to come through and if that other promise of, you know, up to $100 billion in different phases is going to be followed through in the coming year. All right, Christina, thank you. Christina. Parts nebulous. Dan, what do you make of all this?
- [44:20]
Guy Adami
Well, I think K Parts just said it. I mean, you know, OpenAI has been scrambling. They made that investment in AMD. I don't know if it's investment, but they have warrants, warrants to purchase up to 160 million shares and they're looking for, you know, capacity wherever they can get it. And so, you know, Sam Altman, I think he's throwing a little hissy fit on Twitter right now, but I think he knows where his bread is buttered. I mean, you know, Nvidia, they, you know, their chips are on allocation, you know what I mean? And so again, you know, they know if they do invest in Open Air, they're going to get it back in some way, shape or form. But OpenAI is scurrying away from.
- [44:51]
Tim Seymour
And the key, the key you say, and this is what, what, Christine, I mean, is the open, Open Air funding round. In other words, they're trying to close a funding round. You can't have the key to your future be talking negatively. You better get out there Sam Altman and say whatever you can say on Internet so they have to they have to calm this down. They're trying to raise money. If you told me that Nvidia no longer believes that they want to be supporting in the same way open AI that's not the valuation they're getting damage control.
- [45:20]
Dan Nathan
Yeah 101. So there you go I think you know we'll see how it all we'll see what happens tomorrow with it. This story is not going to end.
- [45:26]
Melissa Lee
Up next final trades, final trade time.
- [45:31]
Mike Kohler
Mike Poe yeah maybe a cold winter and for UPS it's been a long one but I think it's starting to thaw.
- [45:37]
Tim Seymour
I like UPS here Timbo Videlke new CEO. The right CEO. I got this one right insider and I think he's the right right man for the job. I think that discount to target on the multiple is insane. The T and Timbo target Dan yeah.
- [45:53]
Guy Adami
If you like Palantir here which I don't you might want to take a look at Snowflake to me decent better in some aspects better valuation guy.
- [46:02]
Dan Nathan
Breaking news did not allow us to have Carter work talk about McDonald's the bullish formation that he was seeing but McDonald's.
- [46:11]
Melissa Lee
Thank you for watching Fast Money Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer if you your parent or spouse served in the military, you could join our family. Our members saved an average of $70 a month on auto insurance when they switched. Tap the banner or visit usaa.com join today to check your eligibility restrictions. Apply.