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CNBC's "Fast Money"
The Latest U.S.-China Tit-For-Tat… And Fast Money’s Obesity Week Continues 12/3/24
00:43:49
Tariff threats and trade restrictions are the latest irritations in rising U.S/China tensions. But the Chartmaster Carter Worth says now could be the time to get in. What he’s seeing in the technicals, and how your money can fare in the China trade. Plus Fast Money’s special coverage of the weight loss drug space continues. How one biotech company is standing out from the competition, and how its obesity drug could do more than trim your waistline. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
This episode is brought to you by Merrill with a dedicated Merrill Advisor. You get a personalized plan for your financial goals and when plans change, Merrill's with you every step of the way. Go to ML.combullish to learn more.
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Guy Adami
Merrill, a Bank of America company.
- [00:16]
Melissa Lee
What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith Inc. Registered Broker Dealer Registered Investment Advisor Member SIPC first and foremost, the thing that powers your business is power. And when it comes to power, Ford Pro has options. Now scratch that.
- [00:35]
Guy Adami
We've got every option.
- [00:37]
Dan Nathan
Diesel, gas, hybrid and all electric.
- [00:43]
Guy Adami
Plus they're all connected, so you're always.
- [00:45]
Dan Nathan
In the driver's seat.
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Melissa Lee
The power is yours. Visit fordpro.com today to learn more.
- [00:52]
Guy Adami
Live in the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Time to buy China. From tariff threats to trade restrictions, there seem to be plenty of reasons to tread lightly in the region. But the chartmaster says buy he will lay out the case. Plus, betting on Bitcoin. MicroStrategy CEO is expanding his exposure to the crypto in a big way. What it says about where the coin is heading and how soon it could hit 100k. And obesity week continues with the CEO biotech Altimune, how its experimental weight loss drug stacks up against the competition and where the stock goes from here. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Danny Moses, the founder of Moses Ventures. We start off with the latest tit for tat in US China trade relations. Beijing retaliating against the latest chip export restrictions by announcing it will no longer send certain critical Minerals to the U.S. cNBC's Megan Cassell has got the details on this. Megan. Hey, Melissa. That's right. A real ratcheting up of trade tensions with this move today from China to ban the sales of these rare minerals to the US Effective immediately. Now this, of course, was a response to the Biden administration's move on Monday to restrict the export of some chips and chip making equipment and software to China in order to slow Beijing's development of advanced weaponry and AI systems being used by the military. Beijing today rejected the US Justification of that move, saying Washington has generalized the concept of national security in recent years and abused export control measures. Their response today represents a real significant stepping up of these tensions, not entirely unexpected as they did begin laying the groundwork to make this move possible over the past year, but it could only be a first step given, of course, the additional tariffs that Donald Trump is vowing to impose when he takes office. The critical minerals being targeted have broad military uses. They're used to make weapons, but they're also in a number of consumer goods, phones, computers, cars, all industries, Melissa, that could feel an impact as this trade and tech war between the US And China starts to heat up. MELISSA all right, Megan, thank you. Megan casella, it is of note that, you know, these metals have not been shipped to the United States for a couple of years now. So it either indicates that companies have moved away or they've drawn down stockpiles that were built up before, but not either way. Tensions are getting worse.
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Tim Seymour
Well, we talked about this last night and we talked about, I think for the most part, for our investors right now, the question is what? What's the impact for US Companies? So when you talk about US Miners, no, of course they're not on the ground in China. And yes, there's no question that probably for the last 20 years and we've done it here, remember the unical deal where the Chinese were coming in to buy? I mean, this goes all the way back in time. I wouldn't be that scared off by these headlines. I do think also the last couple administrations, including this one going back to their first one, we're thinking about how do we secure rare earth and some of these important minerals on these shores. So it will lead to some squeezes here. But I think the more important dynamic is what Eunice Yun was saying on our set yesterday. Not an AS live guy.
- [03:48]
Guy Adami
No, she was actually here in person.
- [03:50]
Tim Seymour
And it was great. And she reinforced the story that the Chinese are less concerned about external interpretations or at least really more importantly policy as it affects the economy, when in fact they care a lot more about policy, what that means for securing power, Communist Party for social control. And that's really potentially risky for US Companies.
- [04:11]
Guy Adami
They're playing the long game. So they don't care what the near term impacts are of that long game.
- [04:15]
Danny Moses
We also mentioned of the yuan at the lowest level now in a year. And look at the move since October. It's actually pretty startling how quickly it's deteriorated. And you know, you go back to August 11, 2015, when they actually announced the devaluation of the yuan. And by February of the next year, our equity markets felt it, to Tim's point. So nobody's paying attention to this now. I think they should. J.P. morgan had a note on it as we said last night, and I think to your point, Tim's point, it's not so much what this means, because maybe it's not a big deal. It's the ratcheting up of the rhetoric that's important.
- [04:48]
Melissa Lee
So prior to the election and even post, there's been a lot of stimulus in China.
- [04:51]
Guy Adami
Right.
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Melissa Lee
They're trying to just spur up demand there. Obviously, we know there's going to be issues with tariffs with Trump next year. They're getting ahead of it. But I have a question for Guy. Oh, on the periodic table, Danny. She questions on the periodic table. Gallium and germanium. Do any idea what the numbers are?
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Danny Moses
I believe they're 128 and 1 31.
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Melissa Lee
No, but I'm saying it's not important right now. U.S. but it's just rhetoric, and I think it's just noise right now. And so I know we're going to talk about what you should do with the China trade in general, but I think it's just noise.
- [05:16]
Dan Nathan
I think a lot of US Investors, to Tim's point, have a hard time kind of like figuring out where this kind of lies. But when you think about, like a whole host of other US Brands, this is what I want to focus on a little bit. You know, if you think about Chinese demand for US Brands, they're going down. I mean, make no mistake about it, iPhones only grew, like by a half a percent in Q3 last year in China.
- [05:36]
Tim Seymour
Well, this place, they've lost 5 points market share.
- [05:40]
Dan Nathan
And you know what? IDC is tracking this and, you know, like, you know, Android phones grew 6% year over year. And so iPhones are not growing. So, like, if there are some nationalistic tendencies towards some of this stuff, I mean, I think that's a bigger problem for US Monthly Nationals.
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Guy Adami
I mean, we've talked about this before. Soft boycotts, you know, sort of the informal boycotts of people on Weibo, you know, voicing their unhappiness with US Brands. I mean, already US Brands are having difficulty, and then you want to layer this on top of it.
- [06:07]
Danny Moses
I think it's a problem, you know, but I will. I got to be honest. You know, I thought this was going to be a problem two years ago. And so when the. When the rhetoric around Taiwan started getting ratchet up and nothing really has happened, but it hasn't gotten better. In some ways, it's gotten worse. Now, what's remarkable to me is the broader. Our markets have not cared one iota. But there are things out there that I think we should be paying attention to. And you wonder, you know, what companies are in the crosshair. Apple's the biggest one, without question. I mean, Nike's has its own issues, without question. But you know, Nike's a stock that's more than half of what it was three years ago. And obviously that's a big China play.
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Guy Adami
Oh, there's Starbucks, there's McDonald's, there's. Yeah, Nike. Yeah, yeah.
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Tim Seymour
I mean, I think that that's a story I think also investors are thinking about as we get to the end of the year, this is also that time you start planning for 20, 25. What's going to be different. We came into 24 and I bet we would have all said that. We did all say. And I bet even Danny was here and he said we're worried about geopolitics. Well, geopolitics, I would say this is one of the most spectacular years and spectacular. I don't necessarily mean that in a positive way in 24. And yet geopolitics didn't do anything. Markets, we know what they've done. So it's a question of US Exceptionalism. Is this the place you're going to continue to see to invest? You know, right now you've got a no confidence vote in France. You've got problems around the world. You've got dynamics that I think are going to put even more pressure. But I get back to guys 2015. Deval, what you're hearing from all these companies is we're not going to be afraid to let our currencies truly float. And the ultimate elixir for any economy that's struggling is let their currency go. And so that's going to be very good for Americans traveling around the world. It's going to be good for American buying power. But it's, it's possibly going to be something that I think we have to worry about for multinationals.
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Guy Adami
Yeah. And it's something that Donald Trump has spoken out against in the past in terms of the strong dollar. A weak dollar is very helpful for.
- [07:51]
Melissa Lee
Us Multinationals play a key role in the economy in China, whether they like it or not. And they can ill afford, I think, to really go into this type of back and forth rhetoric without implications because they start kicking US Companies out of that were to happen. That's not going to make it worse there.
- [08:04]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. You know, Tim just used the term American exceptionalism. I mean, you know, pull up a chart of Apple right here. It's rallied 10% from its lows in early November. And here we that iPhones aren't growing. This is a product that's more than 50% of their sales. So when you think about some of the money that's coming out of these other places, it's clearly coming here into the US and you know, Apple trades it 33 times this coming year's earnings. I don't know if it's ever traded like that at this sort of growth. I mean it's really talking about single digit growth. And let's be clear, in June when the stock was massively underperforming, okay, like the broad market, I think it was up less than 10% versus an S&P that was up like 15 or 16% or so. All the analysts could talk about is this massive upgrade cycle that was coming this fall. It's gone. It's not happening. Apple intelligence is a freaking zero. I mean like seriously, I'll say this.
- [08:52]
Tim Seymour
I agree the refresh is slow to happen. It's going to happen and it's going to happen anyway. Largely. But, but what all the analysts are also saying is we're in, you know, the broadening of the air trade and the trade which is now into software and we're seeing that. I think Apple is perfectly positioned whether it's Apple intelligence or not. I mean they are truly the use case. There certainly will be that follow through. That's partly what the market is rewarding right now. And I don't think the market that move from 185 to break through that two year resistance. Resistance, I don't think that was on a refresh.
- [09:20]
Guy Adami
What if I said to you though that Apple would not have an AI product at all in China because all China has to do is say you will not have a partner for AI because Apple needs that local Chinese partner. But I. So if there is no AI there, what drives the upgrade cycle in China? Nothing.
- [09:38]
Dan Nathan
The whole story in China is Huawei and show me. And they're working on their own chip, they're working on their own AI capabilities that will be on the edge and we have no reason to believe that their phones won't be much better than that.
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Guy Adami
I have. No, I don't. I'm not doubting that. But I'm just saying for bulls if they're counting on some sort of upgrade cycle help from China, it may not come if the Chinese government decides.
- [09:59]
Tim Seymour
No, I stared China risks for Apple in the face for a year. I mean I guess, you know, I don't want to belittle the impact there. And if there was a headline Tomorrow we know what Apple would do. I think we all recognize for China there's an India where, you know, where smartphone penetration is 3.3%, where their market share is. I mean there's, there's a lot of other markets for them to grow. That 3 billion installed base right now. If you remove China would be, it would be a big impact, but I don't think it stops.
- [10:26]
Danny Moses
You know, we couldn't go 10 minutes without talking about gold in this conversation. And you know, it was announced that China stopped purchasing gold in April of this year and the market took. That is okay, they're done. Maybe that's the end. Now Goldman Sachs just put out a note that wait a second, maybe they've actually been buying gold in the over the counter market that really is sort of opaque and they thought another 60 tons worth of gold might have been purchased. So you tie this all up in a bow. China, you know, yuan going lower, all this rhetoric, all roads lead to gold. Despite the fact that, that a rough couple of weeks it got back on its source over the last couple of days.
- [10:57]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, gold is, is one of my favorite investments right now. It has held up in the face of the dollar strength and the dollar's come in the last few days, but it held up. And I think with all the geopolitical stuff going on around the world, it's a place to be. And it feels like it's about to take off from here for sure.
- [11:12]
Guy Adami
All right. Meantime, the chartmaster put out a note this week saying it is time to buy China stocks. Back in October he was a seller of China mega caps. Let's bring him in now for the latest technicals on this trade. Hey Carter, what are you looking at? Sure, before we look at the charts, you know it's been a bit hysterical, right. In October you had record inflows and we just having reports now that November has seen record outflows. Often it's right to take the road less travel. That was the thought in October. Fade the hysteria. And now I think we've got the equal and opposite circumstance of people abandoning it just as aggressively as they were embracing it. So let's look at the charts. My thinking here is to buy this sell off. Here is a five year weekly chart. No drawings, no annotations, no judgments. Next chart has some of those and what we know is we have that very optically clear double bottom. You have the euphoria that spurt there in September and October. At that point trading farther above the 150 day moving average. Any time on record and now this big giveback. And I think that's the flag, if you will, the retracement to buy. Let's look at a stock or two. Obviously the biggest or most important is Alibaba and you have a great circumstance here. A sell off to the penny to a rising 150 day moving average. Look at Tencent. You also have a similar circumstance. Different shape, torque, character, but same circumstance. The big September October move and then this give back to the level from which it broke out. And again to the penny to the 100 day moving average. I'm buyer of both of those and I'm buyer of fxi. All right, Carter, thank you. Carter Braxton worth of worth charting as a trade. Are you a buyer too?
- [12:53]
Danny Moses
Agreed. And I wasn't born with a crystal ball. But I'll say this. There's going to be over the next couple weeks David Tepper is going to be on the network. Joe Kernan or Becky is going to ask him about the China trade and he's going to say I'm still in it. I still believe in it despite the fact that it has round trip the entire thing. And Tim Seymour sat here a month and a half ago when Alibaba was 117. He said, you know, I'm long in stock but I'm absolutely selling calls against it. That was prescient because it's round tripped as well. But we have filled in all the gaps are created to the upside. That trade is not over. I agree with Carter Worth.
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Tim Seymour
The things that worry me most about owning Alibaba are not related to the bottom up story and they're not really related to China macro. It's probably so to the extent that China macro could be corporate governance dynamics, I don't know what they're going to do to Alibaba next. Although I think they've already kissed the ring and been through that. That you know, yeah, who's your daddy? And I think the the story of a company with 45% of the market cap and cash. The story of a company that I think continues to at least talk about spinoff of assets. This is some of the parts. This is an earnings multiple that K Web, which is the collection of the largest Chinese Internet names. So if you, if you don't want to play just one name and you want to diversify, that's still up 21% from the lows in September. So even after this move. So guys, right. And it's nice that he pats me on the back for selling some Upside calls. I mean, bottom line is I'm still in Alibaba and so collecting some premium is great, but I believe in the long term trade. And I will say there's a lot of people patting themselves on the back and they're right, which is what Carter said. A lot of people said, fade this move. It's not big enough. It's not big enough. I think they're, I think they're also waiting for Trump to take office, frankly, before they really unleash. Why would you do it now? Why would you bring out some of your biggest stimulus when you really don't know what's actually going to happen?
- [14:29]
Guy Adami
Be in zebra, the baba.
- [14:32]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, it is. It hasn't been a great trade to your point, Tim, but, you know, this goes back to what you were just saying about like the other parts of the world. The sentiment is so bad, the valuations are so low. Where are you going to get alpha in this market? Are you going to continue to buy into what might be perceived as a valuation bubble here in the US or are you going to look at the. Are you going to look at. I'm just looking at Taiwan semi, Tencent Samsung Alibaba. Like that's some good exposure that some underperformers, some things that Taiwan semi should be up the way it is. So E M looks interesting to me. But I also like the K web.
- [15:03]
Melissa Lee
It's not just Asia, it's Europe. I mean, a lot of these markets around the globe have been left for dead, so to speak. And the US Feels like it's a little bit overrun right now and people aren't paying enough attention to the global markets in general.
- [15:13]
Guy Adami
All right, let's talk Tesla now. The rally taking a breather today. Shares down a percent and a half after new data show deliveries from its Shanghai factory fell for the second month in a row. Yet our guest trader tonight, Danny Moses, who's been short Tesla at various times in 2016, isn't betting against it right now. And for the viewer, you know, you're constantly trading, so keep us updated on where you are.
- [15:33]
Melissa Lee
Listen, I first got into the trade after the Solar City deal was done in kind of late 2016 into 2017, thinking that, wow, that was an awful deal. I'm going to get, I'm going to get into the stock now. Short off and on for the last few years, the first quarter this year when they reported.
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Tim Seymour
Who's the CEO of SolarCity at the time?
- [15:49]
Melissa Lee
His cousin.
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Guy Adami
Yeah.
- [15:50]
Tim Seymour
Yes.
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Melissa Lee
We won't go. He won that court case also.
- [15:52]
Tim Seymour
Okay.
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Melissa Lee
Right. So fast forward to the first quarter this year. It had just started to trade on fundamentals for the first time in a long time. It was hanging around 140, $150. Right. So you felt like, okay, the quarter was bad. Right. What happened? Promise of autonomous day in August, which ended up getting pushed out to October, flies to China to get some regulatory relief on certain things and lo and behold, attaches himself to Trump to make all the other stuff go away. When the story moves from non fundamental to technical and those nature, that's when I leave a story. And we talk about it on the podcast a lot, giving updates there. But to people that are listening now, it's very difficult certainly to short a name. He is not trading on fundamentals. It's also hard to go long a name when it's all on promises. And I'll say this about Musk. He's promised shareholders things in the past that never came to fruition. Was given the benefit of the doubt. He's now talking about cutting $2 trillion, you know, from the U.S. budget, being able to basically improve the budget. And you're not gonna be able to do that. So it's one thing to mess with shareholders, it's another, in my opinion, to mess with the American citizens. So we'll see. But it feels like it's moving from the corporate world, right? You know, into the there. Yeah, I had to go there a little bit just to round that out.
- [16:58]
Dan Nathan
Well, I mean, like the question is, does Elon Musk want to take away a lot of the safety net services of people who can't even afford Teslas? You know what I mean? Like, I just think this is an uncharted territory where we are right now. It's one thing to take Dick Cheney, who is the CEO of Halliburton, and put him in that sort of seat and you know, it's a very transparent sort of thing. What's going on with this Doge is going to be that it's not going to be particularly transparent.
- [17:19]
Guy Adami
This is interesting because it does go back to trade because you think about who this alienates in terms of Tesla buyers, right? And so for everybody who's loves where Elon Musk stands, there's probably somebody else who doesn't is on the opposite side.
- [17:33]
Danny Moses
You know, that might be true for like a Coca Cola or we talk about brands that have alienated. I'm not certain that holds water in terms of Tesla in their base. Maybe I'm 100% wrong and quite frankly, I don't even know if it's about auto sales anymore. Anyway. So I get what you're saying, but I don't think that moves the needle.
- [17:48]
Melissa Lee
Think about this. Other than this comp package thing that happened yesterday, the only court case that Musk really ever lost was that he was forced to buy Twitter. Right? What happened when he bought Twitter? Only good things happened for him because use it as a platform to spread whatever kind of information to get what he wanted. And every single investigation that might have been going on is now gone. But to Dan's point, you should be concerned as a US consumer, if you get approved for FSD when it's still supervisory, it's a danger. And that's not a Tesla comment. That's just in general. So that's the stuff I'm watching for now. It has nothing to do with the Tesla stock.
- [18:20]
Tim Seymour
Well, again, we know there are industries and the auto sector. The irony here is that actually the big three, or maybe the big two now don't necessarily love what should be support of Detroit. And again, removing. I know it sounds crazy, but removing EV subsidies and making it more expensive to build an EV car is not good news for GM who's not given any credit for their ICE business. So GM shareholder. I actually think some of this is sentiment that will just work its way through. But you know, and look at the steel sector today. I mean there's, there's all these conversations about what, you know, keep it in America, build it in America. No foreign partners for America. Not great. Always.
- [18:58]
Dan Nathan
Hey, really quickly, I know Mel wants to move here. They also want to cut the cfpb. So we're talking about autos, we're talking about this sort of thing. There's a lot of implications if you cut that. That is meant to protect consumers from financial, you know, fraud or whatever.
- [19:11]
Melissa Lee
Exactly.
- [19:12]
Guy Adami
Coming up, we are watching Salesforce after our shares on the move. After the latest report, the details in numbers from that quarter and what CEO Marc Benioff had to say about the results next. And from Salesforce to Cellular, shares of AT&T getting a boost on the back of its investor day, how they're putting their cash to work and the earnings guidance sending the stock to multi year highs. Don't go anywhere fast. When he's back into this is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc. What does it take to design and deliver a corporate strategy with confidence? How will you drive long term value by understanding the risks and rewards within a challenging geopolitical environment? EY Parthenon has 10,000 strategists with deep sector knowledge backed by the real world experience of the EY Global network that can help start your journey with us@ey.com us ey parthenon every day, thousands of Comcast engineers and technologists put people at the heart of everything they create. Like Kunle, a Comcast engineer who began to approach work differently after becoming a father with two teenage boys at home.
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Melissa Lee
Kunle thinks about the generation that he.
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Guy Adami
Is building technology for. This continues to inspire him and his team to build a fast and reliable.
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Melissa Lee
In home wifi solution for millions of.
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Guy Adami
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Melissa Lee
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Guy Adami
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- [21:44]
Danny Moses
Jim.
- [21:44]
Guy Adami
While Salesforce now is running its whole.
- [21:47]
Danny Moses
Company on Agentforce and all of our.
- [21:50]
Melissa Lee
Support is on Agentforce and many other.
- [21:52]
Guy Adami
Aspects of our business are now on Agentforce.
- [21:55]
Melissa Lee
I would really challenge you to go.
- [21:56]
Guy Adami
To Microsoft's website, talk to any of.
- [21:58]
Danny Moses
Their employees, see how they're using it all.
- [22:01]
Guy Adami
I don't even think they can use.
- [22:02]
Melissa Lee
Copilot inside Microsoft, so this is an.
- [22:05]
Danny Moses
Opportunity for all customers to go to.
- [22:07]
Melissa Lee
Another level using this incredible capability.
- [22:11]
Guy Adami
That was Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff talking with Jim Cramer about his company's AI push. You can catch the full interview Top of the hour. Shares of the cloud company jumping up almost 7% despite a mixed quarter. The conference call is underway. Seema Modi's got the latest sema Melissa Enthusiasm around Salesforce's AI offerings seems to be paying off with the company lifting its fourth quarter sales and earnings guidance. CEO Marc Beniohoff on the earnings call saying the real excitement is around the rise of digital labor. He said for many years the company helped customers manage data and analytics. But now the company has created a new market that is so much bigger than data management, the market for digital labor. With the rise of AI agents to help customers compute complex data models to serve their end user. He also made the point that these AI agents will only enhance human capabilities. A strong street reaction to earnings. And even before the results came out, with Wedbush remaining overweight, a 3.75dollar rating, Piper Sandler upping its target to 395. But keep in mind, Salesforce is not the only software cloud company leaning into AI agents from ServiceNow, Asana, Oracle, among others. It will, it is in fact though fueling the software trade with software stocks on average outperforming chip stocks since the US Election. Melissa Seema, thank you. Seema Modi with all the details on CRM. Is this the handoff that we've been looking for? And this sort of reminds me of, of matter in that, you know, they're creating an AI, they've got an AI product, but they're also using it internally to improve their own metrics.
- [23:42]
Dan Nathan
Listen, the promise of AI is, is really to take out customer management, you know, sort of things. And this is what this company does. So we were just talking about the valuation in Apple relative to its growth. This company is expected to grow earnings and sales next year about 10% trades at a very similar multiple to Apple at 30 times. And you could say, well that's probably really conservative those gross estimates if they deliver on the things that Benioff was just talking about. So to me this one's interesting. But it's trading at all time, highs up, 20 bucks in the aftermarket.
- [24:09]
Tim Seymour
I think this one feels safe here. I think the second straight solid quarter where free cash flow growth is really underpinning part of this. Also, you know, the question is, you know, 8% year over year growth, C pro, which grows about 10, which is at least where you want to see more growth. And you got a little more. That's it just gets back to the multiple here. But I do think, and we've had this conversation in the last month, I think software is how you're seeing the delivery of AI. It's exactly what you're both saying, which is that it's companies themselves that are getting leaner and meaner, which is one of the things Savita said in terms of what it even means for the industrial complex. But yes, I do think you can own this one.
- [24:43]
Melissa Lee
Look what's going on in Intel Hardware vs Salesforce Software? Investors are looking for growth, places to go that don't require lots of Capex, obviously. So I think they're beneficiary of other names coming up.
- [24:54]
Danny Moses
It was real quick. It was great that she was here last night. Without question, the markets. I'm not a hater. I'm not a hater. They missed on Epsilon. They beat on revenue slightly. The one thing people looking at margins were better. Without question, the guide was not good. It now trades at 35 times next year's numbers. I mean, good for them, telling a great story. But this got itself expensive on the back of this.
- [25:17]
Guy Adami
All right, we've got a newsletter on Amazon's Black Friday NFL game. Julie Borson's got the details on that. Julia. Hey, Melissa. Amazon's Prime Video second Black Friday game delivered 13 and a half million viewers. That's an average audience increase of 41% over last season's inaugural Black Friday game. Now, this marks the second largest viewership game of the season for the NFL. A 42% jump for the Nov. 7 Bengals Ravens game, which shows ongoing awareness of the NFL in its third year with regular season games on Amazon. It also comes after Thanksgiving Day games had the highest viewership on record, up 6% from last year. So the NFL continuing to deliver for Melissa, for Amazon as well as all of its other broadcasters. Any indication as to how much shopping was done during that? You know, we don't have that data just yet, but what we know from last year is that when people were watching the game on Amazon, they were also engaging with ads. This year we interviewed Amazon's J. Marine about all the new ways they were offering interactivity in the ads, making the ads shoppable, both with QR codes and with the ability to shop with your remote. So you can bet that they were finding lots of ways to take that that viewership and make sure that they were spending money on Amazon. All right, Julia, thank you. Julia Boorstin. Zero chance Guy was buying anything online, let alone stream with his remote history.
- [26:44]
Tim Seymour
But probably that was 10 years.
- [26:45]
Danny Moses
Seriously, you could. I'm not going to say why I'm not. You can buy things with your remote control.
- [26:50]
Guy Adami
Yes.
- [26:50]
Danny Moses
So the thing you point at the screen.
- [26:53]
Guy Adami
Yes.
- [26:53]
Danny Moses
And you can buy. And that's the world we want to live in.
- [26:55]
Guy Adami
We have a tube TV though, Guy.
- [26:57]
Danny Moses
It does not.
- [26:57]
Tim Seymour
The cable box that's next on your side table with the three rows.
- [27:02]
Dan Nathan
The brown one. Yeah.
- [27:03]
Danny Moses
It's no surprise that Thanksgiving football was at records because people don't want to talk with each other anymore in this politically diverse landscape that we find ourselves in, number one. Number two, Amazon is a stock I think collectively we liked outside that one little misstep they had for about a six month period. It's been an amazing stock though, and I think you stay with it.
- [27:21]
Guy Adami
All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. AT&T looking like a wireless winner. Shares surging on the back of the company's investor day. The cutting edge tech they're doubling down on next. Plus, Fast Money's obesity week continues with the CEO of one biotech company hoping to slim down the competition in the weight loss drug space. Their latest results and the key data that may set them apart.
- [27:47]
Tim Seymour
You're watching Fast MONEY live from the.
- [27:49]
Guy Adami
NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
- [27:51]
Tim Seymour
We're back right after this.
- [27:58]
Guy Adami
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Edu. Once a destination for powder hounds, now a money making powerhouse driven by money, power and faith. Cities of Success Salt Lake City Premieres December 10, 10 Eastern, CNBC, SiriusXM112 welcome back to Fast Monday. AT&T shares hitting their highest level since 2021. Today, the company unveiling a three year plan to more than $40 billion to investors through dividends and share buybacks. CEO John Stanky also telling Squawk on the street that AI demand is driving the company to double its fiber optics business. He said there's also a. Well, let's listen to what he has to say.
- [28:52]
Danny Moses
If you think about AI in particular, just think about how sensor technology, the number of cameras that are now out in somebody's life around their home, in their car, in a store, and all that video needed to be shipped up to the network in order to be analyzed using AI algorithms. That alone is going to drive an incredible amount of upstream bandwidth and demand on a network. And that's why we think these investments are really appropriate to make right now and puts us in a unique position.
- [29:20]
Guy Adami
ATD also saying @ today's investor day it expects free cash flow to hit $18 billion in 2027. So a lot of capital to be returned, but also enough to invest further in its fiber optic network to, you know, satisfy this demand.
- [29:34]
Danny Moses
Well, their investments what got them in trouble in the first place. With that said, I mean it's been the move from $13 has been unbelievable. Tim has talked about this as well. With that said, if you'd put up a 9, 10 year chart, we are right at a downtrend level. So this is a huge level to break through. I'm not sure it's going to get there. The flip side of the coin is T Mobile continues to do everything right and it's within a dollar or so of its all time high, like many stocks. So I think it's still T Mobile's world to live in.
- [29:59]
Tim Seymour
No question T Mobile has been the play to have even after, you know, even this year. But say this about AT&T and say this also about the call it the mercenary or the predatory nature of the competitive landscape and what's really, what do you call it? A tripoli, what's what? Not an oligopoly. What are three what are we doing? How we what's an industry with triumvirate triumph?
- [30:20]
Guy Adami
Okay, I don't know.
- [30:22]
Tim Seymour
I think it's I'm going to go Tripoli. Twitter fans, you can correct us, but.
- [30:25]
Guy Adami
I have no idea.
- [30:26]
Tim Seymour
The point is that they've now there's three companies and they, I'm not saying they're colluding, but they can slowly raise prices and they're sticky and they're holding it in. AT&T, you don't have an investor day unless you have good news. 40 billion they're going to give back. In terms of divs and cash buybacks, I think you stay long.
- [30:41]
Melissa Lee
Two legacy companies have reinvented themselves over the last few years. Disney and at&t. At&t selling off the bad assets, focusing on growth areas. Disney to me doing the same exact thing. And so two areas, two names I think that are getting bought by investors.
- [30:54]
Guy Adami
Coming up, obesity opportunity, how Altimmune's experimental drug could have a competitive edge over Zep Found and Wegobi while also treating liver disease. The CEO will join us straight ahead as Fast Money's Obesity Week coverage continues. Back right after this. Missed a moment of fast.
- [31:11]
Tim Seymour
Catch us anytime on the go follow.
- [31:13]
Guy Adami
The Fast Money podcast.
- [31:15]
Tim Seymour
We're back right after this.
- [31:25]
Guy Adami
Welcome back to fast money. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closing at fresh records today while the dow lost about 76 points. Shares of United Airlines taking a breather from its recent rally. Shares lower today but still up more than 132% in 2024. CEO Scott Kirby telling our own Phil LeBeau this morning the company expects to post its best December revenue on record. Shares of U.S. steel down 8%. President elect Donald Trump reiterating his position opposition I should say to the $15 billion takeover bid by Japan's Nippon Steel. Trump posting on Truth Social that he does not want the American resource company to be owned by a foreign company and that he will block the deal when he takes office. US deal down 23% this year. FedEx and UPS also lower today analysts at Bernstein downgrading FedEx to market perform lowering the price target 316 from 337. The firm citing execution, event and policy risk. And a few mega cap tech names hitting fresh record highs. Apple and Metta both trading at those levels. Well, Altamine bucking the biotech sell off over the past month soaring 30% in that time while the XBI Biotech ETF is down slightly. The company now gearing up to put its experimental obesity drug to the test in a phase three trial. Also set to give more data on how it can treat MASH liver disease in early 2025. For more, we're joined by Altimmune CEO Vipin Garg. Vipin, great to have you with us.
- [32:43]
Vipin Garg
Thank you for having me.
- [32:44]
Guy Adami
That drug, pemviditide, pemvidutide, if I can say it, if you can sort of give us an overview. It's now just entering phase three and as I understand it will be 5,000 subjects across four different sort of trials that will explore different attributes of the drug. Can you give us a status report on where that stands now?
- [33:04]
Vipin Garg
Absolutely. So as you said, pemvidutito, we call it PEMVI for short. It's a dual agonist that combines GLP1 with glucagon. And the benefit of that is that in addition to appetite suppression, which is produced by GLP1, glucagon is acting as energy, increasing energy expenditure. As a result, we are able to get a better lipid profile in these patients. See the whole obesity market as it evolves. It's going to be more about not just about weight loss, but what else do you bring to the table? What are the comorbidities of obesity that you're able to treat? And that's where pemvidutide shines. Because of the glucagon component in the drug, it's having direct effect in the liver. It is defatting the liver. At the same time the serum lipids are improving and blood pressure, all of which are risk factors for cardiovascular disease. People really don't die of obesity. It's the cardiovascular disease that has to be treated in order to improve outcomes in these patients. The way we've designed our four trials in our phase three program really reflect that those benefits of pemvidutide. These trials are specifically designed to take advantage of glucagon component of the drug.
- [34:24]
Guy Adami
Can we also talk about preserving lean muscle mass? Because that is a major complaint, particularly in older people who might be more susceptible to losing lean muscle mass. That's more of a problem, particularly if your bones are weakening. In phase two, you had some very interesting results. 50 patients were in phase two, but 21.9% of the weight loss there was attributed to lean muscle mass. But that compares to a lean muscle mass loss of up to 40% in WeGovy at the end of 68 weeks, which is a longer period of time. But still, can you talk to us about how that compares? PENVI compares to sort of the other drugs out there that are trying to not make you lose lean muscle mass. The myostatin inhibitors. How are they different?
- [35:10]
Vipin Garg
So people are talking about combining different therapies here. What we are doing by adding glucagon, we are already getting that benefit because what glucagon is doing it is increasing energy expenditure and actually turning the metabolism to fat burning rather than protein or carbohydrate burning. So as a result we are losing more fat mass as opposed to losing protein mass and carbohydrates. And that has knock on effect. The benefit is that we are seeing class leading lean mass, lean mass preservation. This is really important in people over 60 years of age, in post menopausal women as well as in people with sarcopenia. A large number of patients will benefit from a drug like this. And really we don't need to combine two drugs to get the same effect. We can with the same drug we can get preservation of lean muscle mass.
- [36:02]
Guy Adami
In your earnings call Vipin, somebody in management said that you're going to need a commercial partner to commercialize the drug. And so I'm wondering how you think about that roadmap and what that partnership could look like for you.
- [36:14]
Vipin Garg
Yes, our strategy is to secure a partnership around obesity. As far as MASH and other indications are concerned, we are moving full speed ahead with those and those discussions, those developments are moving forward. So ultimately, in order to commercialize in a large obesity space, we are going to need a partner and we are seeking that.
- [36:37]
Guy Adami
Will you be independent in this partnership or does this partnership include the possibility of being bought?
- [36:44]
Vipin Garg
Well, there are many different ways these partnerships can Be structured. It's hard to define that ahead of time. But depending upon how the partnership comes together, our goal is to find a partner that that can bring full value to the asset. Both obesity mash and other indications. If it's just obesity, then it'll be a partnership. But if it's the whole molecule, it could be something a different kind of structure.
- [37:06]
Guy Adami
Okay, VIP and thank you. VIP and garg of ultimune. And a reminder, you can catch more special obesity week coverage right here on Fast Money all week starts at 5pm Eastern time each day here on CNBC. What's the trade here?
- [37:19]
Danny Moses
Well, it's interesting. I know Steve Grasso talks about this. There's $650 million company right as we speak. It might be more now is probably up in the after hours. They have a quarter of that in cash and cash equivalent. So that suggests they got some Runway here. They probably burn about $20 million a quarter or so. It's interesting story but you asked the right question. You know, you can be able to go this alone. And he answered it. And the suggestion is that I think they're open to a partnership so it becomes an interesting stock.
- [37:44]
Guy Adami
I thought the suggestion was that if he was open to everything well or that which is interesting.
- [37:49]
Tim Seymour
What's, what's been kind of interesting for me from a price action is is to watch really bounce. Lilly's actually bounced quite nicely in the last, you know, call it week or so. And I think where expectations got back to a little bit more of a reality. I think a lot of people traded out of this name. I know it's still a crowded trade, but the Lilly over Amgen move in the last week. I would reverse that again. I think Amgen was overdone.
- [38:08]
Guy Adami
All right, we got a news alert on President elect Trump's pick to lead the dea. Chad Chronister pulling himself out of the running, saying in a post on X to have been nominated to serve as administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration is the honor of a lifetime. But went on to say there is more work to be done for the citizens of Hillsborough County, Florida and a lot of initiatives I'm committed to fulfilling. This is Trump's defense secretary pick Pete Hegseth comes under increased scrutiny. All right, coming up, BlackRock making a 12 billion dollar bet on the private credit market. The details on the deal and what it could mean for investors next. And talk about a big bet. MicroStrategy Technology digging its heels into the crypto stance and scooping up even more bitcoin. What CEO Michael Saylor had to say about the move. All that when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. BlackRock pushing deeper into the private credit boom, buying HP Investment Partners for $12 billion in stock. Leslie Picker joins us now with all the details. Hey, Les. Hey, Mel. Yeah. The combination creates private credit behemoth with $220 billion in client assets, which would make BlackRock the fifth largest manager of the asset class, according to PitchBook. BlackRock said in the release that it expects the private credit market to more than double to $4.5 trillion by 2030. That bull case is driven by the notion that market forces and technology and regulation are all pushing activity toward private credit credit, which some see as a more efficient way of doing business than syndicated lending conducted through banks. BlackRock is not alone in this thinking. State street told the Financial Times last month that it's looking for acquisitions or minority stakes to fortify its private credit offerings. Such tie ups have become increasingly common as well at asset managers, insurers, even large banks. But skeptics are plentiful. Some say the burst in private credit popularity is indicative of a bubble. Others say this newfound debt load will lead to a reckoning in the next major downturn. In the meantime, though, publicly traded private credit firms like Blue Owl and Aries see big returns year to date, outperforming BlackRock, which did gain on today's announcement, up about 2%.
- [40:20]
Tim Seymour
Melissa?
- [40:21]
Guy Adami
Leslie, thank you. Leslie Picker. We've got a skeptic right here on the desk. In fact, skeptic.
- [40:27]
Melissa Lee
I think it's great to raise money and put it to use in the private credit market market. I can think back to 2004 and 2005 during subprime. What happened was there's normal credit cycles that always occur. Subprime mortgages default and they go delinquent over a period of time. The 228 mortgages, the three 2027, the NINJA loans all made it seem like this time is different. So what happened was everyone dove in. Insurance companies, pension companies, like, oh, we can get a nice yield, very little credit risk. Right now, private credit is north of 2 trillion. It's not being monitored because it can't monitor at the Fed treasury because you can't really see it's gone off the banks. We know why it's growing and there's nothing wrong with what they're doing. All I'm saying is you see these pick loans, payment in kind for interest rate. You see these modifications occurring. At some point it's going to catch up and their performance of these loans will, will start to diminish. And so all I'm saying is that people be aware and listen. It's having an effect on credit spreads across the entire market. Just this thirst for yield in general. So people just need to be aware. Companies doing nothing wrong, Great acquisition looks, going to look great. You won't know for years if this was a bad decision or not. But just something I'm watching for.
- [41:27]
Tim Seymour
Well, and if you look at where high yield OAS spreads are, so you're basically as tight as you've been since really right before the market of the great financial crisis started to unwind a lot. And what Danny saying I think is important too because if you think about the world of subprime and Danny was as close to it as anybody, the government and the regulators were actually pushing, pushing people into it. They were pushing the players. I mean there was a time when this was actually in their best interest in the same way that, you know, essentially regulators are fine with private credit, have been pushing them there. A lot of the banks haven't wanted to go there and they've been filling a void. So it's been a good thing. But you know, you do have to be careful. And I just say again, we talk about those risks that we came into 2024 and certainly, you know, in 2023 we thought that as long as higher for longer, at some point this was going to have a big impact on private credit markets and it hasn't so great. They're just bigger now.
- [42:22]
Danny Moses
Commercial Mortgage backed securities, also known as CMBS.
- [42:26]
Guy Adami
Yes, how clever.
- [42:28]
Melissa Lee
Always a good acronym. Almost always.
- [42:31]
Danny Moses
10.4% delinquency rate, the highest we've seen now in 11 years. Another thing that nobody's talking about and it's not like it's been creeping up, it's been moving up in an exponential fast over the last few months.
- [42:42]
Guy Adami
Coming up, MicroStrategy digging even deeper into the crypto trade. While the CEO thinks there's a lot more upside left for bitcoin and when can we expect it to finally cross the 100,000 mark? We'll debate that when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to fast money. MicroStrategy buying another one and a half billion dollars worth of bitcoin over the past week the software company turned bitcoin holder now has over 400,000 coins on its balance sheet that is worth almost $40 billion. So what do we make of this, Dan?
- [43:17]
Dan Nathan
I've never seen anyone committed to something you take the biggest religious zealot I mean listen, you got to give the guy credit. I mean you got it to his commitment and I wonder if he like would like to see bitcoin come in. He owns it at 58,000, 400,000. You think about it, he's got a big paper gain right there, but he wants to keep buying it. When you think about how much is locked up by the whales, he is single handedly pushing it from a sentiment.
- [43:40]
Melissa Lee
Standpoint, issuing a $3 billion convert with zero percent interest. Right. You're going to take that all day long, go buy stuff. I would question why you wouldn't just buy one of these ETFs that's literally priced at par versus Dan's point, buying something two and a half times. It's on, you know, pretty much buying bitcoin on leverage. So good. More, more power to them but not a way that I would express well wait, wait.
- [43:59]
Tim Seymour
To the real options market comes in bitcoin and what that's going to mean for the ability to also see capital eviscerated. But in the meantime it leaves MicroStrategy as the levered play.
- [44:10]
Danny Moses
When you say levered play, I mean it's almost like a 5x levered play. If you can overlay a bitcoin chart from September and in microstrategy chart, I mean bitcoin is probably up what, 40%. MicroStrategy went from $100 a share to 550ish and is pulled back. So like every 5% in Bitcoin is seemingly a 5x move in MicroStrategy. I mean if you want to play that game, that's the deep end of the pool.
- [44:34]
Dan Nathan
That spread is coming in though. It's got a 6 billion market cap now we just says near $40 billion in the holdings.
- [44:39]
Guy Adami
Right.
- [44:40]
Melissa Lee
I would say that you have these two X levered MicroStrategy single name ETFs pointed out in the Wall Street Journal yesterday.
- [44:47]
Tim Seymour
Yeah.
- [44:47]
Melissa Lee
And how they're not the reason and they're not matching up because the dealers on Wall street won't get them the swap capacity they need. And so but it is creating demand in the option market because they can't go on swap. They're going to buy call options and they're not performing like they should. So something to watch out for.
- [45:00]
Guy Adami
A levered play. And a levered play sounds like a wonderful idea as Karen would say in there.
- [45:06]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. But really quickly it's not on the company, it's on investors willing to pay that because they could go and buy bitcoin you could buy ETFs. And you know, this is a great example of that. I mean, he's taking advantage of that to the point that there's demand for his company based on his, you know, commitment to the idea.
- [45:23]
Tim Seymour
It's not the company, it's bitcoin.
- [45:24]
Dan Nathan
That's what I said.
- [45:25]
Tim Seymour
Yeah.
- [45:25]
Guy Adami
Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn.
- [45:41]
Tim Seymour
Tim at and T. And their churn has actually returned to levels of their peers. I think you can stay there.
- [45:47]
Melissa Lee
Danny Moses, Amazon, Black Friday football game. The only beneficiary wasn't shopping. It was the gambling company's genius sports. Long and strong.
- [45:55]
Guy Adami
Great to have you on the best, Danny.
- [45:56]
Melissa Lee
Thank you.
- [45:56]
Guy Adami
It was fine, Dan.
- [45:58]
Dan Nathan
Dude, Benioff getting right up in Microsoft's grill like that. I mean, that one seems like underperformance. Not great results. I'd stay away from it.
- [46:05]
Danny Moses
It's great having Danny here for obesity week.
- [46:08]
Melissa Lee
It's good. Thank you, guys.
- [46:10]
Tim Seymour
We got no bullying here.
- [46:11]
Guy Adami
And Tesla's all time high.
- [46:13]
Dan Nathan
Come on.
- [46:14]
Danny Moses
The A in the clam was on fire today. Mel.
- [46:17]
Dan Nathan
What's that? As it sometimes is on fire.
- [46:21]
Guy Adami
Ouch. Thanks for watching Fast Money. Mad Money Whittier Kramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.