CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: The Market’s Final Hurdle… And Housing Sector Slump
Release Date: May 22, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Guests: Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Mike Wilson (CIO and Chief Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley), Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies), Orfe Divangui (Zillow Senior Economist), Angelica Peebles, Kate Rooney

1. Market Overview: House Passes Trump's Tax Bill

Melissa Lee opens the episode by highlighting a pivotal development: the House of Representatives narrowly approved President Trump's tax bill with a vote of 215 to 214. This legislative action potentially sets the stage for a market rally in the latter half of the year.

Dan Nathan comments on the market’s reaction:

“Yields pulled back from yesterday's highs as investors seem to sense some clarity on fiscal policy in Washington.”
[01:10]

Mike Wilson provides a nuanced view on the bill's impact:

“There’s a lot of interpretations from the bond market that this tax bill is deficit negative, certainly deficit negative.”
[02:23]

Despite the House’s approval, Mike Wilson remains cautious about the bill's long-term effects on the deficit and fiscal policy:

“The bond vigilante language and rhetoric is getting louder and the answer is still unknown.”
[03:45]

2. Housing Sector Slump

The discussion shifts to the housing market, with a focus on the homebuilder ETF experiencing its fourth straight day of losses.

Dan Nathan analyzes the bond market's reaction:

“A debt downgrade by Moody's last week. Then we have a tax bill pass which basically blows out the deficit further.”
[06:07]

Orfe Divangui from Zillow provides insights into declining home sales:

“Existing home sales are seeing their slowest April since 2009. Sales fell 2% from a year ago.”
[35:04]

Karen Feiderman adds context on housing inventory:

“Inventory is up 20% relative to a year ago. We’re seeing more price cuts, with a record number of them in April.”
[37:35]

3. Earnings and Federal Reserve Policy

Dan Nathan discusses the outlook for earnings and potential Fed rate cuts:

“Our forecast is that we're going to grow 7, 8% earnings this year. It could be more with tax benefits and a weaker dollar.”
[09:39]

Katie Stockton emphasizes the importance of rate cuts for market multiples:

“If the Fed's cutting rates 3, 4, 5, 6 times, it's hard for multiples coming in.”
[10:18]

4. Bitcoin Reaches New Highs

Katie Stockton from Fairlead Strategies analyzes Bitcoin's recent surge:

“Bitcoin has cleared final resistance around 108,000. We want to see a couple weeks out above this threshold to confirm the breakout.”
[18:09]

Melissa Lee concurs on the need for confirmation:

“It's still not the best risk-reward until we see the confirmed breakout.”
[19:14]

5. Supreme Court Decision on Federal Reserve Independence

A significant legal development is discussed where the Supreme Court grants a stay allowing President Trump to fire certain board members. However, Angelica Peebles explains that this decision does not extend to the Federal Reserve:

“The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured quasi-private entity... that’s an entirely different issue.”
[21:18]

Mike Wilson interprets the ruling's impact:

“Jay Powell is safe, according to the Supreme Court, at least for now.”
[23:19]

6. Retail Stocks Performance

Karen Feiderman and Mike Wilson delve into the recent performance of various retail stocks:

• Williams Sonoma reported better-than-expected earnings but posted disappointing gross margins, leading to a slight decline.
• Ralph Lauren exceeded EPS and revenue expectations and is considering price hikes.
• BJ's Wholesale missed estimates for comparable sales and same-store sales.
• Advanced Auto Parts surged 57% after reaffirming full-year guidance despite auto tariffs.

Orfe Divangui highlights concerns over retailer guidance:

“Why they even give any guidance would seem like a free pass. How can you possibly do that?”
[27:04]

Mike Wilson warns of broader implications for discretionary apparel:

“Multiples that they're trading at, they can't hold.”
[27:32]

7. ASCO Oncology Data Release

Angelica Peebles reports on key oncology trial results presented at ASCO:

• Marisol showed an overall response rate of 60%, slightly below last year but still promising.
• Bicara reported a 64% objective response rate but saw a significant drop in its market cap.

Karen Feiderman notes investor skepticism:

“Investors not liking what they're seeing here.”
[30:08]

Mike Wilson discusses the biotech landscape:

“Companies like Gilead have outperformed the biotech group, making it a safer sector.”
[33:09]

8. Oil and Energy Markets

Mike Wilson addresses OPEC's potential production increase and its implications:

“The cooperation with OPEC is at a place where I think it's pretty low.”
[40:46]

Orfe Divangui from Zillow comments on shale production:

“Are we at peak shale? If we get below a certain number, they can’t drill anymore.”
[41:24]

Dan Nathan underscores concerns about oversupply:

“If there's a deal with Russia in Ukraine, that supply hits the market.”
[42:04]

9. Tech Devices and OpenAI’s Venture

Kate Rooney explores OpenAI and Jony Ive’s new venture into hardware:

“OpenAI is going to be paying $6.5 billion for the tech designer startup.”
[43:10]

Historical context on failed tech devices is provided:

“Google Glass, Amazon Fire Phone, Microsoft Zune... all on that list.”
[43:10]

Katie Stockton remains cautiously optimistic:

“If they come out with something mass market that includes a subscription, it could justify the cost.”
[44:34]

10. U.S. Steel News

Tim Seymour shares breaking news on U.S. Steel:

“Shares initially higher on news that President Trump will review CFIUS recommendations on the Nippon deal.”
[45:10]

Mike Wilson supports the deal:

“Nippon Steel is a good partner.”
[45:50]

11. Final Trades and Closing Remarks

In the concluding segment, traders share their final positions:

• Katie Stockton: “I’m long Mike Wilson 6500 call in the next year.”

[46:21]

Mike Wilson, Orfe Divangui, and Dan Nathan share their closing thoughts, emphasizing cautious optimism and strategic investment positions as the episode wraps up.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wilson:

  “There’s a lot of interpretations from the bond market that this tax bill is deficit negative, certainly deficit negative.”
  [02:23]

• Dan Nathan:

  “Our forecast is that we're going to grow 7, 8% earnings this year. It could be more with tax benefits and a weaker dollar.”
  [09:39]

• Katie Stockton:

  “If the Fed’s cutting rates 3, 4, 5, 6 times, it’s hard for multiples coming in.”
  [10:18]

• Angelica Peebles:

  “The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured quasi-private entity... that’s an entirely different issue.”
  [21:18]

Conclusion:
The episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" delves deep into the current market dynamics, touching upon legislative impacts, sector-specific performances, and broader economic indicators. From the narrow passage of Trump's tax bill and its implications on the deficit, to the sluggish housing market juxtaposed with a bullish stance on Bitcoin, the discussion provides a comprehensive overview for investors. Additionally, insights into the biotech sector, energy markets, and emerging tech ventures like OpenAI's hardware ambitions underscore the multifaceted nature of today's investment landscape. As always, the panel emphasizes the importance of cautious optimism and strategic positioning amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.