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CNBC's "Fast Money"
The S&P’s March Towards A Fresh Record… And Nike Reports Results 6/26/25
00:43:48
Stocks climbing across the board, with the S&P 500 just points away from a fresh record high. How a quiet stealth rally in one sector could push the index to new heights. Plus Nike results are out. The details and numbers from its latest quarter, and the new faces joining the coffee chain’s board of directors. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
Say you've always wanted to take a spontaneous trip to the Caribbean. Here's the thing, if you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can get out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard to have some fun with our money, like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one? So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 19 million customers today@empower.com not an empowered client, paid or sponsored. As America's leading business lender, bank of America is on your corner and in your corner. With $215 billion in business loans and over 3,700 business specialists across the nation, we help businesses thrive so communities prosper. What would you like the power to do? Learn more@bankofamerica.com LOCALBUSINESS bank of America Official bank of FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Copyright 2025 bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is FAST money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Bank on gains. With the markets just off a hair off record, some financial stocks are seeing outsized gains this week. Can the rally keep rocking or is the trade heading for some pain? And Nike on the move. We're watching the stock after the latest earnings beat what it has to say about the impact of tariffs, demand for the consumer and more. Plus, Dr. Copper helped send miners sharply higher. Disney shares off a weak box office for its latest Pixar flick and sell tjx. Why the chartmaster says this stock is about to head lower. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from studio. Be at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight, Carter Braxton Worth, Tim Seymour, Gaia Damian Stuart Geyser, head of equity trading strategy at Citigroup. Welcome, Stuart. And we start off with the markets getting within a whisper of records. The the s and P gaining 8.10of a percent today and closing just six points off its all time high hit more than four months ago. The Nasdaq also just off its best level, up a percent today. And as we are getting ready to close out the month and the quarter, it's been tech and energy leading the charge. But recent moves in one other area really caught our eye today. Bank stocks have quietly been in rally mode since last week's Fed meeting. Goldman Sachs up nearly 10%, hitting a new record today JP Morgan also at an all time high with stress test results coming out tomorrow, earnings season around the corner. What do you make of these market moves Guy?
- [02:27]
Guy Adami
Well I mean in terms of the banks, kudos to Tim and Stewart's here with which is great but you know they've been in very supportive, very I think enthusiastic about the banks. There's been one that I have been and that is in the form of Citibank which I think reports in the middle of July, July 15th or so and you start doing back of the envelope math and this is what we've been saying for a while. City which closed at 84 and change today tangible book is 91 book value 103 to me that's where it should be trading somewhere between the two compared to a JP Morgan which if you look at it tangible book there is $100. JP Morgan's trading close to 300. You can do that math. I know I can as well. So JP Morgan at three times book to me is probably pre financial crisis levels. Doesn't make sense. Citi at a discount makes a lot of sense.
- [03:12]
Melissa Lee
What are banks not pricing it at this point? It feels like there's a lot that could be the reasons behind the drivers behind this recent rally. Stewart. So what else is there?
- [03:20]
Stuart Kaiser
Well look I think in terms of risks it's the economy, you know for banks in terms of the positive side, look you've got the Fed, you had decent earnings, you have C CAR at the end of this week, you have SLR relief. You know there's just a lot of things sort of stacking up and especially if you go a little bit down cap that is a part of the market that folks are very underweight and we've definitely seen flows through the desk the last week or two into regional banks and people kind of starting to engage on that level as well. Energy plus banks equals also good for small cap. So I think that's something to keep an eye on as well.
- [03:48]
Tim Seymour
Well, really fascinating and you mentioned we're within a whisper of all time highs. By the way Guy, Careless whisper I think is one of your.
- [03:55]
Melissa Lee
Yes, I love that whisker.
- [03:57]
Guy Adami
No, Careless Whisper.
- [03:58]
Melissa Lee
Okay yeah. Actually covers it with a band whisper anyway.
- [04:04]
Tim Seymour
But I do think banks are part of taking us to the next level and I think it's, it's, I thought it was going to be today, it's going to be tomorrow or it's going to be the next day. Markets are going higher and, and banks are in a great environment for that because of the Things Stewart said I think the steepening yield curve is a really big part of that. I just the fact that banks also it's all clear in terms of cap, you know capital markets dynamics. First of all I think for people that are coming to market I actually think that there's a lot of momentum and there's a lot of pent up demand there. I think the banks themselves are giving back more capital. I think a lot of the banks are relatively cheap at a time when people are a little worried about the move. We were doing this market broadening thing before we went into tariff mania and now that we've come out of it we brought tech stocks back to fresh all time highs. I think the market is looking for some rotation. I think it's a great place to be. I like Europe. European money center banks I think they trade cheaper, they have bigger div yields and I know people are always worried about the sovereign story in Europe but the same story happened over there. Their private banks essentially moved all of their bad debt to the sovereigns a long long time ago. Those are better balance sheets or at least as good as balance sheets as you have here.
- [05:10]
Melissa Lee
Carter, how do the charts look? Are they strong in the banks?
- [05:14]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well we have you know as is often the case in many areas of the market and not different in financials and bank in particular we have a bifurcated market. We know that the BKX inde measuring big banks is toying with the prospect of moving to an all time high just inches away. Whereas of course small regional banks as measured by the KRE ETF are still some 25% below their former all time high which goes back to 2021. So a different way to say those exact same things Is this the relative performance or relative strength chart of regional banks to the BKX index today made a 20 year low.
- [05:55]
Melissa Lee
So you would say the smaller the down market cap to your question how.
- [06:00]
Carter Braxton Worth
Do the banks look Right. It's there are ones that are you mentioned Goldman Sachs making an all time high JP Morgan also doing that where as well has the prospect and soon to do that or the BKX index itself just about to do it. But you're not seeing of course in so many other areas trust banks and again regionals and super regionals.
- [06:23]
Melissa Lee
Right, right Stewart and you mentioned more people are going to sort of away from the bigger cap to the mid size the smaller caps. That's sort of a bet on the economy being okay in the end. Right. I mean you have to be okay with where we are economically.
- [06:35]
Stuart Kaiser
Yeah I think it's a bet on, you know, economy kind of staying strong, the deregulatory push, you know, kind of putting its way through. Maybe this administration's a little more open minded about bank mergers than some others have been. We got some, some sort of rumors or headlines over the past weekend about potential mergers. So I think it's all those things plus the value story. I mean, this stuff has lagged and when you get to all time highs, people tend to look for laggards.
- [06:55]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. You know what I thought is interesting? JP Morgan all time high today, all time high yesterday. I mean, a string of highs here. They could, they say we could see a tariff induced stagflationary environment in the second half of the year, which would, I would think be bad for a bank like a JP Morgan. I mean, it would.
- [07:13]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I agree with that.
- [07:14]
Melissa Lee
But if they are right, then.
- [07:16]
Guy Adami
No.
- [07:17]
Melissa Lee
What does that say about that?
- [07:18]
Guy Adami
I think they're right in terms of the industry. I don't know if they're right in terms of themselves. Because if you listen, what Jamie Dimon, I know you pay attention this, he was speaking to, I think Morgan, or maybe it was Leslie, one of the two, and he talked about how he thought interest rates could go higher. He thought there could be this sort of stagflationary environment. He also said that they were extraordinarily well suited to handle it if it were to happen. So in that environment, you know, you're not short in JP Morgan necessarily on the back of that.
- [07:44]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, it was Morgan. By the way.
- [07:46]
Guy Adami
What's the idea?
- [07:47]
Melissa Lee
Just spoke to.
- [07:47]
Guy Adami
We had. Yeah, we had a lot of fun. Tim did it the other day and I'm like, why does Tim get to do all the fun stuff?
- [07:52]
Melissa Lee
Fighting.
- [07:53]
Tim Seymour
We like being on the ot. Let's make it clear. It's a great show. And I think if you listen to JP Morgan, what's also interesting, I have a ton of respect for what they do in terms of their research. Bruce Kasman and their economics team I think are a little bit more cautious. I think they're less concerned than they were a month and a half ago or two months ago, really, when we were in the midst of the tariff dynamic. But I think the economists are very different from their strategists. And their strategists just got overweight. And again, we had this conversation yesterday that can be confusing the economy versus the market and they're two different things. And I'm not saying that the economy is a runaway train here. In fact, it's not But I do think that the market dynamics here especially because I also just think positioning and I think a lot of the sentiment here is still pretty negative. And that's why I'm in favor of markets moving higher.
- [08:36]
Melissa Lee
I get the difference. But I mean, can you say J.P. morgan deserves to be at an all time high today if we know, if we believe that there is a stagflationary environment, stagflationary sort of recession, you know, on the horizon?
- [08:49]
Tim Seymour
No, and I think the other thing we say all the time is that I don't think markets are priced for recession, but I don't think we're close and I think we can be and I think we do this whole thing with soft, soft data versus hard data. But, but JP Morgan should trade at the premium it does quietly. JP Morgan is also positioned to certain parts of financial services in the economy and some of the trends even in digital that I think it seemed they were very against at one point. But if you look at the, the legislation and the regulatory framework around what's happened in digital, we know about the Genius act, we know all the things we're talking about. I think JP Morgan is going to be right there.
- [09:23]
Melissa Lee
All right, for more on the strength in banks ahead of stress tests in the start of earnings season, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets co head of Global Financials Research, Gerard Cassidy. Gerard, great to see you. Are you expecting any surprises tomorrow?
- [09:36]
Gerard Cassidy
We're really not. I think tomorrow what we should all expect is that the banks will all pass in flying colors like they have for a number of years of, you know, going through the defense stress test. Where we could see some positive surprises is that there are some banks that may see their stress capital buffers shrink this year. One name that stands out here is M and T Bank. They have, you know, a higher level of commercial real estate loans than their peers which gave them a higher stressed capital buffer. But they have brought that number down a fair amount. So we anticipate that will be to their benefit. Plus the stress test this year has lower credit losses in commercial real estate, which would be another benefit for them. So we thank them and possibly even the big money centers in the sense of Goldman and Morgan Stanley may see.
- [10:24]
Melissa Lee
Some relief as well in terms of what you're expecting and how the banks, businesses look, particularly the large cap banks. We got a read from Jefferies today and traditionally we've looked at Jefferies as sort of an indicator as to what to expect when bank earnings do start. They said that they see resilience in investment banking and capital markets. They're very, you know, they're optimistic about the second half of the year. Can we read through to the rest based on these results?
- [10:49]
Gerard Cassidy
Yeah, absolutely. They're all in the same ballpark. They're different sized players, of course. And I think what you're going to hear from the big banks when they report numbers in July is that April was a very difficult month for investment banking because of the tariff news. But each subsequent month in the quarter it became better and better. And so I think what we're going to see is that the guidance that has been given out for investment banking revenues to be down generally high single digits for most of the investment banks and then trading revenues driven by equities will be up mid to high single digits. I think those numbers could come in a little better in July because of the strength of June soon and is obviously ending very shortly here.
- [11:32]
Guy Adami
Gerard, you're in the hall of fame. We say it all the time. But you mentioned the stress test, so let's just talk about it. Because if Silicon Valley bank were under the auspices of said stress test, they would have passed with the flying colors that you just talked about. So my question to you is, if that is in fact the case, what good is the stress test?
- [11:51]
Gerard Cassidy
Yeah, thank you for your comments, guy. I would say that what's really good about the stress test, it tests for liquidity and a test for credit quality. Now where it didn't test for and does not test for is on this interest rate shock. And ironically, when they test for it now what happens is in a economic downturn, rates generally go down. So it's, you need to see an environment or a test totally separate than what they do on stressing for rates spiking up, which of course is what happened in 2023. So the stress test really is real, is on credit. And that's what it was designed to do and it's done. We think a very effective job on credit. As you know, Silicon Valley did not fail because of credit. It failed because of the duration mismatch on their balance sheet.
- [12:46]
Melissa Lee
Stuart?
- [12:46]
Stuart Kaiser
Yeah, my question would be about the banking pipeline. You know, obviously the volatility in April kind of disrupted things. How full is that pipeline and how do you expect the banks to message that pipeline in July?
- [12:59]
Gerard Cassidy
It often comes with a lot of bluster and it's going to be great. The pipelines are big. Rarely have we heard, you know, investment banks point out the pipelines of poor. You just don't kind of hear that. That being Said though there appears to be a real buildup of potential activity because of the uncertainty we saw in March and April. We anticipate that, yes, we will see more mergers and acquisitions. This administration, just from A M and A, not just in banks, but in the industries, all different industries. This administration is very supportive of that. We believe, you know, Besson, treasury secretary, I think, is supportive of consolidation. We know deregulation not only is affecting the banking industry, but we're going to see it in energy, we're going to see in other sectors. And that will, I think, bring on more consolidation in the other sectors as well.
- [13:54]
Melissa Lee
Yep. Gerard, thanks for your time. Appreciate it.
- [13:58]
Gerard Cassidy
You're very welcome. Thank you.
- [13:59]
Melissa Lee
Gerard Cassidy Carter Braxton Worth what is your favorite financial.
- [14:05]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, I would go two ways to find something that's leading the way but not extended. And so JP Morgan is a case in point. I mean it has made no progress. Right. In four months, five months is just now trying to break out or go the other way, something that is bombed out and is trying to make a turn. Lincoln Nationals ensure that I like and that would qualify as the second circumstance, a bearish to bullish reversal buy.
- [14:32]
Melissa Lee
Which way would you go, Tim?
- [14:34]
Tim Seymour
Well, I like J.P. morgan. I hear Carter in terms of if you look at where it's trying to break out from, but you can say the whole thing about the xlf, I mean it's just kind of getting back, whereas I think it's lagged a little bit of what we've seen in the tech sector. I you know, guy's hall of fame reference to Gerard is first of all appropriate. But also JP Morgan's in the hall of fame. Wells Fargo is not and I think that's where I'd be looking. I'd be looking for the next kind of voting period by the market here because I actually think that a lot of the, you know, call it the ball and chain that was on Wells Fargo in terms of cap requirements, some of the perception issues but again some of the issues around what's been going on regionally in the consumer there, I actually think you want to get longer the you know, you have to go way down the quality list. I think you go to money center banks and you go to the cheaper.
- [15:16]
Melissa Lee
Ones, regionals or large banks.
- [15:19]
Stuart Kaiser
You know, for us we're still high quality beta at this point. So you know, I think the regionals can work for a trade but you know, if we had to own data here, I think it'd be the higher quality, bigger capsafer stuff for now if.
- [15:29]
Guy Adami
Our crack staff and EC and they are crack staff can put up a city chart over the last year you will see that we are at levels that we last saw in February, not unlike the S and P but you get a close above sort of 8687 in Citi, which I think you will. I think it's going to take the next leg higher.
- [15:44]
Tim Seymour
I have Citibank long and I actually sold some upside calls today. I was actually possibly some part of that position was getting called away. I rolled out and up because I again I, I go to August, I go through these earnings period and I actually think you're going to get a chance to see it pull back a little bit but I don't want to lose it here.
- [16:00]
Melissa Lee
Turning now to Nike results stock off after hours lows after reporting a beaten on the top of the bottom lines with expectations low heading into the print. The conference call just kicked off top of the hour. Let's get to Sarah Eisen for more. Hey Sarah.
- [16:12]
Sarah Eisen
Hi Melissa. Yes they were slight beat but this is still representing a pretty weak quarter for Nike. Sales overall falling 12% sharper falls in places like China. CEO Elliot Hill in the release did say this could be the bottom quote. He says we expect our business to improve as a result of the progress we are making through our win now actions. And actually just on the conference call Hill said it is time to turn the page. He also announced the next step in that strategy. They're calling it sport offense which as I understand it will reorganize the company teams and units by sport not by gender which actually is a big shift. It won't be layoffs or reorgan that way but will be a meaningful change in the way the company operates, innovates and markets to consumers. The goal here of course is to reinvigorate what Nike was known for dominating sport where it's lost some of its magic. We know it's been losing share for instance in running to HOKA and on Hill. Just saying on the call we are in a fight in every sport we are in. Now the key to listen for in the next few moments here is guidance which we expect quarterly. Now they haven't really been issuing a full year outlook because of the progression of the turnaround. Also what's key what they say about tariffs this past quarter that just ended, it ended in May. So small impact of tariffs. Are they going to pass it on to the consumer? Will they take the hit? Will it impact margin margins going forward? Remember they sourced product from China and Vietnam and other places where they have to pay higher tariffs right now. But the overall question here is what is the path to growth? And when I'm hearing that there is this new partnership which they're going to be discussing here with Amazon that could be a potential catalyst, we're going to be listening for anything on the order book for the holidays. Remember last quarter, Hill said the order book for fall was still down, but the new product portfolio almost offset some of the headwinds in the key franchises that they needed to work off. And then China, still a big question mark here. It's weak. Its sales fell 20% in this past quarter. How's the brand strength there? Investors have been on the sidelines because of all these issues. Waiting for more, Melissa, on the strategy and whether it's working. The company is saying this is the bottom, but the question is what the path ultimately looks like from here.
- [18:29]
Melissa Lee
Sarah, thank you. Sarah Eisen from the New York Stock Exchange. Was that the bottom? Tim, what do you think?
- [18:35]
Tim Seymour
I think the bottom is 26. Fiscal 26. Whether it was this quarter, next quarter. But, but let's be clear, we weren't expecting anything for another six to nine months. I think they've done a pretty solid job on. You want innovation. Those Nike shoes. Guy wears them every day in the park. I mean he's whipping through there in his bomeros. No, I mean I think there's, there is innovation. Nike is taking market share in the high end, innovative running department. People have given some, some heat to Nike for not making major changes with Elliot Hill. Elliot Hill is, is essentially moved out. The entire old senior management team has aggressively changed management teams. I think there's major change that's going on there and I think people are overdoing in terms of Nike being broken. I think the bigger issue is cyclicality in terms of athleisure and a lot of competition. I don't think you have to buy Nike tomorrow. I'm long the stock, but I think you probably can wait for it to really start to move higher. But yeah, I think you buy it here, you're fine.
- [19:27]
Guy Adami
Still a North America story. I think we all get that. But it's still a margin story too. And you know, as Sarah just said correctly, sales were down 12% year over year. Inventories were basically flat year over year, which to me means margins are going to still be challenged over the next couple of quarters. And valuation is not cheap. I mean, maybe it's cheap historically, but it's certainly not cheap in comparison to the Broader market. And if you look for the last four years when it topped out, I think in 2021, it's been upper left, lower right, a series of lower highs and lower lows, and nothing in this quarter suggests it's going to change.
- [19:59]
Melissa Lee
To me, it was sort of eye opening to hear that Nike had reorganized its business according to gender as opposed to sport, which really seemed like a departure, as Sarah is saying, from the focus on sport. I mean, I don't, I don't really understand why you would focus on gender except that the sizes are different but otherwise the performance qualities of, of, you know, materials of shoes, they should be according to sport.
- [20:23]
Stuart Kaiser
But yeah, you know, I'm necessarily disagreeing, I think with Nike. I don't know the fundamentals as well as these guys, but I would say it's a stock that's kind of been caught between themes. You know, is this a tariff story? Is this a high income, low income story? Is this a fallen angel story that, that's, that's hitting its bottom? And I think until investors figure out kind of which category it sits in, it's a little hard to know like when to time it essentially.
- [20:43]
Melissa Lee
All right, well, more on Nike later on in the show. We're of course monitoring that conference call which is ongoing. But meantime, coming up, copper crushing at shares of Freeport Mac brands surging on the back of some heavy metal trading. Can the stock keep mining those gains?
- [20:55]
Tim Seymour
Oh boy. Wow, that's a lot.
- [20:58]
Melissa Lee
It was chock full of good ones. Plus we were watching the farmer's space as a revamp back vaccine panel begins his review of long approved shots. The latest from that and the drug makers that could see an impact. Do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in two.
- [21:15]
Tim Seymour
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee.
- [21:19]
Melissa Lee
Right here on cnbc.
- [21:26]
Tim Seymour
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- [21:57]
Melissa Lee
Close your eyes. Exhale. Feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today.
- [22:05]
Sarah Eisen
Well, I'm letting go of the worry.
- [22:06]
Melissa Lee
That I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class.
- [22:09]
Sarah Eisen
I got them delivered free from 1, 800 contacts.
- [22:11]
Melissa Lee
Oh my gosh, they're so fast. And breathe. Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw.
- [22:17]
Sarah Eisen
The discount they gave me on my first order.
- [22:19]
Melissa Lee
Oh, sorry. Namaste. Visit 1-800-contacts.com today to save on your first order. 1-800-contacts. On WhatsApp, no one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friends and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately, we've got a news alert on the budget bill. Emily Wilkins got the details. Emily?
- [23:08]
Sarah Eisen
Hey, Melissa. Well, we have been following very closely a provision that was really worrying a lot of multinational companies as well as banks and investors. It was called the revenge tax or the retaliatory tax and we can now confirm that that is out of the bill. Secretary Scott Bessant earlier today saying that he had come to an agreement with other G7 countries when it came to the taxes. That was the basis of having this proposed tax in the first place. And he said that he asked Congress to remove it. We now know that the two top tax writers in the Senate and the House, Senators Mike Crapo and Jason, Congressman Jason Smith, have now put out a statement saying that they will remove that provision from the bill. Now that provision was supposed to bring in $116 billion in revenue. So of course a huge question is now are they going to find another way to make up that revenue to appease some of the fiscal hawks or is the did the cost of the Trump mega bill just go up and our members going to have to deal with that? Remember, Trump said he wants to get it done by July 4th. That is eight days away at this point and we have a long way left to go before that gets to his desk. Melissa?
- [24:13]
Melissa Lee
Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins in Washington. Meantime, shares of Freeport McMurray jumping nearly 7% today, now up almost, almost 18% this quarter. The move coming as copper continues its run. The metal notching four day winning streak and is up more than 25% this year. 25%. Wow, guy.
- [24:30]
Guy Adami
It's a big move. Goldman Sachs just had a note out and they're very bullish in copper. There's a squeeze. I don't want to get too in the weeds here, but huge squeeze going on the London Metals Exchange and I don't think it's going to end anytime soon. Which is supportive of Freeport and Southern Copper. Tim can wax poetic is just as easily but FCX here to me is still too cheap. The levels that we saw in 2008 which is north of 60 bucks is not unreasonable in this current environment.
- [24:56]
Tim Seymour
I also think Freeport hasn't gotten enough credit for the gold they have. They're probably about 16ish percent of their, of their, of their mining is in gold. I think the copper story is a weak dollar story. I think it's a, I think it's a supply disruption story. I think China aggressively buying I think some of the LME activity and again all, all the things around the weaker dollar are helping industrial and precious metals and I think copper goes higher. We were at an all time high, an all time high in copper only about six months ago and that didn't seem right given the concerns we had. This feels better.
- [25:30]
Stuart Kaiser
Yeah, I agree. I think you made the point. It's precious and it's industrials metals. This has been silver, it's been copper, it's been gold, it's been everything across the board. I think gold initially was my way to be short the dollar without being long. Any other currencies because it was hard to choose which one. Yeah, we liked and it's just, it's just cascading down and frankly I think some of the rare earth stuff that's going on with China just gets people kind of focused on being long these commodities in general just in case that supply the guests disrupt their more expensive.
- [25:55]
Melissa Lee
Carter, your favorite metal.
- [25:57]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well but first it's important to talk about the industrial metals. How poor they've been on a trailing twelve month basis. If you look at a global aggregate of industrial metals now you're not talking about copper but aluminum, nickel, zinc, you're looking at an aggregate that's down on a trailing twelve month basis 1% versus of course copper up 25. But precious metals or precious metals aggregate up 30 plus. So it's a catch up trade. Right. We know one looks at the gold copper ratio. It's been a one way ride and now there's a bit of a reversal on that. But copper is the best of a lagging group. The question is what do we read into it? That sort of Dr. Copper thing. I know it's popular, it gets a lot of traction. Or is there still something in a lot of commodities the grains are all at multi year lows and that is the case with a lot of industrial metals. Copper being, being the one standout. We shall see it will need others to come along to start to mean what the concept Dr. Copper or Dr. Industrial Metals means.
- [26:58]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, pharma in focus as a revamped vaccine panel begins its reviews. What the group chosen by RFK Jr is watching the drug makers that could be impacted. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ marketsite in Times Square. Back right after Tim. Tim.
- [27:12]
Guy Adami
Tim.
- [27:12]
Melissa Lee
Oh.
- [27:13]
Tim Seymour
Oh, look. Yeah.
- [27:24]
Melissa Lee
Close your eyes, exhale, feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today.
- [27:32]
Sarah Eisen
Well, I'm letting go of the worry.
- [27:33]
Melissa Lee
That I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class.
- [27:36]
Sarah Eisen
I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts.
- [27:39]
Melissa Lee
Oh my gosh, they're so fast. And breathe. Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw.
- [27:44]
Sarah Eisen
The discount they gave me on my first order.
- [27:46]
Melissa Lee
Oh, sorry. Namaste. Visit 1-800-contacts.com today to save on your first order. 1-800-contacts. Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Now, I was looking for fun ways to tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited Premium Wireless for $15 a month is back. So I thought it would be fun.
- [28:05]
Carter Braxton Worth
If we made $15 bills, but it turns out that's very illegal.
- [28:11]
Melissa Lee
So there goes my big idea for the commercial.
- [28:13]
H
Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment.
- [28:16]
Melissa Lee
Of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of networks busy taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com welcome back to Fast Money. Robert F. Kennedy, JR. S new government panel of vaccine advisors voted today to recommend Merck's RSV shot for infant. The group also voted against flu vaccines containing thimerosal. CNBC's Angelica Peebles joins us now to talk more about the panel's decisions and what they could mean for the future of vaccines. Angelica?
- [28:46]
Sarah Eisen
Yeah, Melissa. So the vote on Merck's RSV shot for newborns was closer than expected. There were five yeses and two nos in comparison. A similar drug from Sanofi was unanimously recommended in a 10 to 0 vote two years ago. Now, after today's vote, I caught up with Lyrin analyst Dana Graybosch and she called Merck shot a home run, noting that it's not even a traditional vaccine, it's a monoclonal antibody. And she said if that's what it's going to be like for the most consensus recommendation, she thinks that every recommendation is going to be contentious going forward. Now, pivoting to flu, we Heard from Lynn Redwood. She's the president emerita of Children's Health defense. That's the RFK Jr. Founded group that's raised concerns about using thimerosal in vaccines. In the past, representatives from major medical groups pleaded for more input from scientists including those from the CDC before before the panel voted on using thimerosal in flu shots. Now the preservative prevents bacteria in multi dose vials and it's not widely used Here in the US less than 5% of flu shots last year. But the committee's recommendation to drop it speaks to the heightened scrutiny that we might see from this panel as they get deeper into vaccine issues like the childhood vaccination schedule that they're planning on reviewing. Mel?
- [29:58]
Melissa Lee
Angelica, I heard you make the point earlier today that most people here in the United States, when you get a flu shot, it's a single use shot. And so thimerosal is not an issue as you had mentioned in terms of Merck's RSV vaccine. Are there other vaccines that are in the pipeline that are expecting a vote at any point soon that we should be watching? If this is so close, maybe some others that were thought to be slam dunks won't be slam dunks after all.
- [30:24]
Sarah Eisen
Well, these were. This was definitely the one that was on people's radar because it was only approved a few weeks ago. Now there are other vaccines that are in late stage development, but at this point I'm not expecting anything imminently. But we are expecting them to go back and review vaccines that are already on the market and even re reviewing vaccines that they say haven't been reviewed in more than seven years. So we could see some shakeups for things that are already on the market.
- [30:49]
Melissa Lee
All right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. I mean for the drug companies, it's almost like they're just changing the rules of the game when you're already out there playing. I mean it seems kind of unfair, very uncertain and it makes it seem like future R and D dollars will not be allocated toward vaccines. If it's going to be such a difficult business to navigate.
- [31:09]
Tim Seymour
It does. And again, all 17 members of this committee were removed and seven new ones were replaced. And there's still a lot of uncertainty. I do think for Merck, that's not necessarily the story of the stock.
- [31:22]
Melissa Lee
Stock.
- [31:23]
Tim Seymour
I think the story of the stock is key true to competition dynamics around, you know, pipeline again like it is for many others. The stocks at five year lows and I think it's going to wash around here for a while. Even though if you look at the chart on a 5 to 10 year basis and Carter might even have a view. But I mean, I think it actually looks like it's kind of interesting except for I don't think that there's anything to drive it higher here.
- [31:45]
Guy Adami
Scott Gottlieb was on the squawk box this morning. Great interview with Ben, Becky. He talked about all of this. And you know, the Marisol at a time was thought to contribute to autism. That was debunked. Now they went from the Marisol, I think to some sort of aluminum product. He said they're just going to go down the list and try to sort of ding these vaccine makers along the way. So to Tim's point, your point, if you're in that game, why would you want to remain in that game? The headwinds are going to be incredibly strong. So it's tough sledding for the the vaccine makers right now.
- [32:16]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, we're keeping an eye on Nike shares after hours. The company conference call is underway. We'll bring you all the headlines from that. Plus where one analyst sees that stock heading from here, Fast Money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks climbing today. The S&P up 8.10of a percent, just a tenth of a percent away from its record high. The Dow jumping more than a 400 points in the Nasdaq leading the gains up nearly 1%. Shares of United Natural Foods on the move after hours. The company which is Amazon's primary Whole Foods distributor, reporting a cybersecurity incident that is disrupting some deliveries. However, they added they didn't expect material impact from that hack. Another check on Nike after earnings. The conference call more than 30 minutes underway. The stock just turned higher. It is now up by more than 4%. The company giving some guidance saying Q1 revenue revenues to be down mid single digits. Gross margin to be down about 350 to 425 basis points. Here with his take on the results is Jefferies managing director Randy Connick. He's got a buy rating, a $115 price target on the stock. Randy, great to have you with us. You have said even prior to the earnings, just buy it. How did the first quarter guidance points, how do they stack up what you're expecting?
- [33:37]
H
Melissa, look, plain and simple these results are terrible. But the good news here is that terrible was expected. And as you said in your lead in here, the revenue expectations for the next quarter down mid single digits. That's a massive improvement. And what they said on the call, which I think is very important, is that performance is working, order book is up. And if you take that perspective and say, wait a second, this, this company has the easiest comparisons in all of consumer discretionary. Discretionary over the next four quarters, you have to own this stock right now.
- [34:11]
Melissa Lee
They also talk about, they just talked about just moments ago in the conference call the tariff costs over time. They're saying a gross cost increase of $1 billion due to tariffs. They're also saying they intend to fully mitigate the tariff costs over, over time. What does that mean for margins? Randy? Are they just eating it?
- [34:28]
H
Look, in the near term, it's not great for margins, but it doesn't matter. Here's what matters. Because they signaled that the revenue business, revenue part of the business is improving sequentially and the product is trending. The market's going to look past the margin problem and start to look through fiscal 26 into fiscal 27. So if we're thinking out eight quarters, the business should improve from a margin trajectory, especially on these mitigation efforts to improve product cost, move production around and then take some strategic price increases on certain products. I think that's a winning formula ahead. And what we, what we've tried to counsel clients is look through 26 and look into fiscal year ending in May 27th when we think there's going to be a V shaped rebound and this stock can double from current levels.
- [35:19]
Tim Seymour
Randy, hope things are good down on the ranch there. I guess so where do you put the multiple on this thing? Because by 27, I've read your research. V Shape stood out to me. So that means you probably back around $4 a share or somewhere around. Or is it that high? Because I know we, we closed fiscal 24 just below 4.
- [35:36]
H
Yeah, look, I think this is a super great mathematics exercise. This is a company, it's gone from $4 of earnings down to $2 of earnings. It's going to be terrible in the next fiscal year, the next four quarters. But eight quarters from now, we think they actually get back to $4. This company trades usually in and around 25 times. I've covered retail forever. When you see turnarounds happen in these stocks, they trade above their normalized range. So that's why we're putting a high 20s multiple on $4 of earnings in two years out. Fiscal years out, that is. And then when you look at this stock, keep in mind this company did, did Last year about $50 billion of revenue with a market cap of 88 or just under $90 billion. Its lowest price to sales multiple in 15 years. Years. Its lowest market cap in a decade. This is the number two brand ubiquitous of ubiquity behind Coca Cola in the entire world. That's why you need to own this thing right now. And we've been a big sell short seller of Lululemon and we want to be buying this Nike and shorting Lulu against it.
- [36:39]
Guy Adami
Now that's fair. And listen, Tim, you basically preached to the choir in terms of Tim. So I think part of this, though, says competition is going to be basically what it is, is now it's going to be the same in a couple of years from now. There's not going to be an acceleration. The margin deterioration, which they just talked about. We talked about their inventories being flat year over year. Sales were down 12%. I mean, that all sort of goes away and then you can make a case, I guess, on valuation. But this has been four years in the making in terms of the stock. Low upper left, lower right.
- [37:09]
H
Well, that, you're right. We beat. We just, we didn't like it for a few years and we upgraded it in February, maybe a quarter or too early, but, you know, that's when we upgraded. So I agree that's been a terrible situation for a number of years, but it had a terrible CEO in the past. That CEO has changed. This CEO that came in, Elliott Hill in October, he's the home run. So if you think about the competitive set here, what people forget about Nike, there's only 10 competitors that that matter to Nike. Whereas with Lulu, they have hundreds of competitors, thousands of competitors in apparel around the world. So. So Nike's in the right category. Nike is the number one brand competitors like Hoka and on. I know everyone's hyped up over on running, on holding, we have a hold rating there. But you know what? You know what? On running doesn't have. It doesn't have low price points, it doesn't have a big apparel business. Nike is the only brand that has the global awareness. It's the full lifestyle across all the price points, from rich people to poor people. That's why this stock is going to work massively over the next 12 months and why you want to own it right now.
- [38:14]
Melissa Lee
All right, Randy, Appreciate your conviction. Thank you, Randy. Connick Jefferies just, he says, carter, would you just buy Nike? How do the charts look?
- [38:23]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah, I mean, and we discussed this to all of us together a couple of days ago. I mean, it's a remarkable thing for a brand like this. And there are others that are struggling Disney but they've come to life. That's at its source Covid low. I mean think about that. So one can either take the poor relative performance, just say why do it? Let's wait a little bit or a little bit of the approach, just buy it because it is so bombed out, it is so bad and that it is likely not going out of business. So if one is going to take that approach, the latter approach, just buy it. Fine. But I would go small in terms.
- [38:57]
Melissa Lee
Of the Nike turnaround. Tim, do you believe that the competitors right now that have eaten away at Nike share, they just sort of recede that Nike gets back that share in some way because of the execution led by Hill?
- [39:10]
Tim Seymour
There may be a little receding, but I think this is more about Nike. First of all, they are the ones that discounted and promoted got inventory way down. If anything, we've heard inventory going up in some of these other spots. So I you can't say that there isn't a much more intense competitive environment. But I think I agree with I mean best athleisure brand in the world. No one close.
- [39:32]
Melissa Lee
All right. Nike shares up four and a half percent after hours. Coming up, a check on some media movers. Disney showing some strength. Netflix keeps hitting records and when Paramount Skydance merger might close. All that next Plus a retail reversal. Why the chartmaster says TJX is topping out the technicals. Telling the tale when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Some media stocks catching our eye today. Disney seeming to shrug off poor performance of its latest Pixar flick Elio at the box office and hitting its highest level in over a year. Netflix set a new record closing above $1300 for the first time. Elsewhere in the space, Paramount higher after reports yesterday that Skydance boss David Ellison hopes to close the merger with the company before the end of the summer. And Warner Brothers discovery up nearly 12% this month as we await it split into two separate entertainment companies. Do you like any of these?
- [40:30]
Tim Seymour
I do. And I'm going to pat Carter on the back because I remember the show where he talked about Disney's chart and that wasn't that long ago and it's had a nice move. And I, and I and I get back to also what Disney's now done For a couple of quarters in a row they've given not only a remarkably detailed look at out into the future, but that's a company that's very optimistic about their business. And I think the DTC profitability is really important. We know there is cyclicality with their consumer parks business and that there's probably even some issues that could be coming with higher costs and less attendance. But DTC to me is what it's about.
- [41:01]
Melissa Lee
Carter, you select the Disney chart.
- [41:04]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah, I mean, I think this is a question of technique. You can like something in a downtrend, but that has risk. You can like something that's been in a downtrend and then comes to life. So. So it's kind of Tim to say that I'm pleased with the call. But remember Disney off its low. I missed 10%, 12%, 20%. The Chartist is a coward. Let's just. I want you to go first wherever you are with your money and start to turn a stock that's in a downtrend and then play that momentum. I don't want to do sticking my money into something that's in a downtrend. And that is the point of respecting change in trend versus trying to anticipate a change in trend.
- [41:43]
Guy Adami
There are many adjectives I would use to describe Carter. Coward not being one of them, I will say. Accurate is a word I would use. And we talked about those double bottoms a month and a half ago. We actually said on the show that the quarter they reported in terms of Bob Iger's legacy was Critically important and 118 was the level we needed to get through. Well, now we're through those double tops. We're at a three year high, I think in Disney. I think it can continue to go higher.
- [42:08]
Melissa Lee
Coming up Max and at its max. Shares of TJX on a tear the last several years. But the technicals could be signaling a fashion faux pas for the stock. What the Chartmaster sees coming for the retailer next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer Cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the president and CEO of Intuit. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. Meantime, more fast Money into the welcome back to Fast Money. Retailer TJX has been a stalwart in the market, clocking annual gains every year since the financial crisis. An honor even stocks like Nvidia and Apple cannot claim. But it's basically flat in 2025. And the Chartmaster says it might be time to sell the stock now. Carter, what are you seeing in the.
- [42:57]
Carter Braxton Worth
Charts before we get to the charts? Just. Would you make the point? I mean, such a high flyer. Consider this. On a 20 year basis, TJX has gone 5 performance. The S and P. TGX is ahead of Microsoft on a 20 year base. A true high flyer. But let's look at some tables that start to tell a different tale. So here is the former high flyer on a five year basis of course, really way ahead of both the market and the consumer discretionary sector. Now more recently, look at the next table three month performance. You're starting to see a reversal here where TJX is up only 3,4 well behind the S and P and the sector. And look at a one month basis. This is really where it starts to be telling. Of course it's down and you've got a consumer discretionary sector that's on in the market up. So let's look at three identical charts and try to find the way forward. A chart with no drawings, no lines, no annotations, no judgments. Next chart. This is with the smoothing mechanism. The 150 day moving average. It is now flat. Often that is the beginning of what is characterized as a bullish to bearish reversal. Final chart, the same chart with instead the actual trend line. And if and as we check back to that trend line and I think that's what's coming as a minimum, we're looking at another 5 to 7% decline. But ultimately I think we're headed to around 1:10 a share and that is lower from here. And I would note down today in a very strong take.
- [44:29]
Melissa Lee
Carter, thank you for that guy.
- [44:31]
Guy Adami
Well, so it's interesting, UBS had a note out I think yesterday saying they see they still expect increased sales and their conviction in TJX Ross stores, Burlington is still very high. But when a Carter Braxton Wirth brings his work forth that says you know what, we have a bullish to bearish reversal and we're probably right on a four year uptrend line. You got to take, take heed.
- [44:54]
Melissa Lee
How are you feeling about discretionary retail?
- [44:58]
Stuart Kaiser
Yeah, I mean I think that all just all goes back to the, the labor market at this point. I mean a month or a month or so ago I would have said it's all about tariffs but. But now it actually feels a little bit more about consumer spending. Some of the data we got today and we'll get later in the week, you know, checking in on that consumer spending will I think will be kind of concerning most likely. So I would say a little bit cautious there just because we think the biggest risk to the market is the labor market and the that's a part of the market that's just acutely exposed to that.
- [45:22]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [45:22]
Tim Seymour
I tell you what, I like to shop at tj.
- [45:25]
Melissa Lee
I knew you were going to say that. I knew you were going to say.
- [45:26]
Tim Seymour
That, but I'm a bigger fan of Homesense. I spent a lot of time at Home Goods. Well, there's Home Goods and there's homesense. And that's the thing. Homesense is new. It's weird because they almost have the same stuff, like pillows. I buy like duvet or like throw candles or maybe some scented candles.
- [45:42]
Guy Adami
Getting the, getting the thing in the duvet is painful.
- [45:45]
Tim Seymour
Painful.
- [45:45]
Melissa Lee
It's.
- [45:46]
Tim Seymour
I hate. I won't do that.
- [45:48]
Melissa Lee
We're going to take a break. Up next, final trades. Another check on shares of Nike. Still holding on to after hours. In fact, that after our session, highs up almost 9% here, best level since March. As we go tomorrow's session, final trade time. Carter Braxton Worth Titan International.
- [46:10]
Carter Braxton Worth
Small captain, manufacturer of wheels and tires going back to the 1890s. A bearish to bullish reversal.
- [46:15]
Melissa Lee
Buy Stuart Kaiser City.
- [46:18]
Stuart Kaiser
Yeah, I'm going to go with semiconductors. I think it's under owned. It's short in momentum and management's talked about the cycle bottoming, so particularly analogs, but semiconductors for us.
- [46:25]
Melissa Lee
All right, great to have you on Stu. Tim.
- [46:27]
Tim Seymour
Great having Stu. I'm with Randy.
- [46:30]
Gerard Cassidy
Let's.
- [46:30]
Tim Seymour
Let's just buy this thing.
- [46:31]
Melissa Lee
Nike guy.
- [46:32]
Guy Adami
I'm going to Manifest Copper to continue to go higher. Southern Copper, by the way. By the way. Manifest Space. Great podcast.
- [46:39]
Tim Seymour
Good job.
- [46:40]
Melissa Lee
Thanks for watching. Fast Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer hey, I'm journalist Sam Sanders. I'm poet Saeed Jones.
- [47:32]
Tim Seymour
And I'm producer Zach Stafford. And we are the hosts of a podcast called Vibe Chat. On Vibe Check, we talk about everything. News, culture and entertainment and how it all feels.
- [47:42]
Melissa Lee
That's right.
- [47:43]
Tim Seymour
We talk about any and everything on.
- [47:45]
Melissa Lee
Our show, from real life issues like grief to music and movie critiques.
- [47:48]
Tim Seymour
And that barely scratches the surface.
- [47:51]
Melissa Lee
Yes, indeed. And it doesn't stop there. We have got a lot to say so join our group, chat, come to life, follow and listen to Vibe Check wherever you get your podcast.