CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary: The S&P’s March Towards A Fresh Record… And Nike Reports Results (June 26, 2025)

Hosted by Melissa Lee, CNBC's "Fast Money" episode aired on June 26, 2025, delved into the dynamic movements within the financial markets, banking sector performances, corporate earnings, and significant developments in the media and retail industries. The discussion featured insights from a panel of top traders and financial experts, including Carter Braxton Worth, Tim Seymour, Guy Adami, Stuart Kaiser, and Gerard Cassidy.

1. Market Overview

The episode kicked off with an optimistic outlook on the stock markets, highlighting the S&P 500's impressive gain of 8.10%, bringing it tantalizingly close to its all-time high set four months prior. The Nasdaq also showcased robust performance, climbing nearly 1%, driven primarily by the technology and energy sectors.

Melissa Lee highlighted the market's momentum:

"[...] the S&P gaining 8.10% today and closing just six points off its all-time high hit more than four months ago. The Nasdaq also just off its best level, up a percent today."
[00:00]

2. Banking Sector Rally

A significant portion of the discussion focused on the unexpected rally in bank stocks following the recent Federal Reserve meeting. Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan reached new highs, with Goldman Sachs up nearly 10%.

Guy Adami provided a critical analysis of bank valuations:

"JP Morgan at three times book to me is probably pre-financial crisis levels. Doesn't make sense. Citi at a discount makes a lot of sense."
[02:27]

3. Stress Tests and Bank Resilience

The panel discussed the upcoming stress tests slated for tomorrow and their implications for the banking sector. Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets expressed confidence in the banks' ability to withstand economic pressures:

"We think the banks will all pass in flying colors like they have for a number of years of, you know, going through the defense stress test."
[09:35]

Guy Adami questioned the efficacy of stress tests in predicting future bank stability:

"If Silicon Valley Bank were under the auspices of said stress test, they would have passed with the flying colors that you just talked about. So my question to you is, if that is in fact the case, what good is the stress test?"
[11:32]

4. Analysis of JP Morgan and Citi

The conversation turned to comparing JP Morgan and Citibank, examining their valuations relative to their tangible book values.

Tim Seymour defended JP Morgan's strong market position despite potential economic downturns:

"JP Morgan is going to be right there. [...] I'm going to buy the thing right now."
[07:44]

Conversely, concerns were raised about JP Morgan's exposure to a potential stagflationary environment, although leadership from Jamie Dimon remains optimistic about navigating such challenges.

5. Nike Earnings Report

A significant segment was dedicated to Nike's latest earnings report, which showed a 12% decline in sales, particularly sharp in China. CEO Elliot Hill introduced a strategic reorganization named "Sport Offense," focusing on restructuring by sport rather than by gender to reignite the brand's dominance.

Sarah Eisen from the NYSE provided an overview:

"Sales overall falling 12% sharper falls in places like China. CEO Elliot Hill [...] announced the next step in that strategy. They're calling it sport offense [...] to reinvigorate what Nike was known for dominating sport where it's lost some of its magic."
[16:11]

Tim Seymour remained bullish, citing innovation and management changes:

"I think there's major change that's going on there and I think people are overdoing in terms of Nike being broken. I think the bigger issue is cyclicality in terms of athleisure and a lot of competition."
[18:34]

6. Copper and Mining Stocks Rally

The episode covered the surge in copper prices, which bolstered shares of Freeport McMurray (FCX) and Southern Copper. The ongoing squeeze on the London Metals Exchange and strong demand from China were highlighted as key drivers.

Guy Adami remarked on the bullish outlook:

"There's a huge squeeze going on the London Metals Exchange and I don't think it's going to end anytime soon. Which is supportive of Freeport and Southern Copper."
[24:30]

Tim Seymour added:

"Copper is the best of a lagging group. [...] this feels better."
[24:55]

7. Media Sector Movements

The media sector saw notable activity with Disney rebounding despite a weak box office performance for its latest Pixar film. Netflix achieved a new record, closing above $1300 for the first time. Additionally, the potential merger between Paramount and Skydance was discussed, aiming for closure before summer's end.

Melissa Lee summarized:

"Disney shares off a weak box office for its latest Pixar flick and sell tjx. [...] Paramount higher after reports yesterday that Skydance hopes to close the merger before the end of the summer."
[40:30]

Randy Connick from Jefferies expressed optimism about Disney's DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) profitability:

"This is a company that's very optimistic about their business. [...] I think the DTC profitability is really important."
[41:01]

8. Retail Sector Analysis (TJX)

TJX Companies, a leading retailer, was scrutinized for its technicals despite its historical performance. Carter Braxton Worth suggested a potential downturn:

"We're looking at another 5 to 7% decline. But ultimately I think we're headed to around 1:10 a share and that is lower from here."
[42:53]

Contrastingly, UBS maintained a positive outlook, forecasting increased sales and continued confidence in Ross Stores and Burlington.

9. Vaccine Panel Decisions and Implications

The discussion transitioned to the new government vaccine advisory panel led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The panel recommended Merck's RSV shot for infants but opposed flu vaccines containing thimerosal due to safety concerns. This decision has significant implications for the pharmaceutical industry and future vaccine research.

Angelica Peebles from CNBC reported:

"The committee's recommendation to drop it speaks to the heightened scrutiny that we might see from this panel as they get deeper into vaccine issues like the childhood vaccination schedule that they're planning on reviewing."
[23:07]

Gerard Cassidy addressed the impact on drug companies:

"The headwinds are going to be incredibly strong. So it's tough sledding for the vaccine makers right now."
[31:09]

10. Conclusion

The episode concluded with a recap of the day's significant market movements and forward-looking insights. Melissa Lee emphasized the critical areas to monitor, including Nike's ongoing conference call, the resilience of the banking sector, and the sustained rally in copper and mining stocks.

Overall Insights:

• Bank Stocks: Evaluated for their near-term valuations and resilience amidst potential economic downturns.
• Nike: Undergoing strategic realignment to reclaim market dominance.
• Commodities: Copper remains a standout performer amid supply constraints and strong demand.
• Media and Retail: Mixed performances with opportunities and challenges highlighted.
• Pharmaceuticals: Increased regulatory scrutiny could reshape vaccine development and approvals.

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, expert analyses, and insightful conclusions drawn by the "Fast Money" panel, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the market dynamics and corporate strategies shaping the financial landscape on June 26, 2025.