CNBC's "Fast Money" — Episode Summary
Episode: Trump Picks Kevin Warsh For Fed Chair… And Big Tech’s AI Spending
Date: January 30, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Bono, Mike Coe
Notable Guests: Steve Liesman (CNBC), David Zervos (Jefferies), Rick Sherlund (Sherlund Partners)
Overview
This episode dissects President Trump's long-awaited selection of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, evaluating his likely policy approach and the implications for markets. The panel also dives deep into the “AI boom” in big tech spending, disruptions in gaming stocks from new AI tools, major CEO changes at Walmart and Target, and market reactions to a slew of earnings—from the Magnificent 7 to the oil giants. Notable analyst guests join to provide further insights and actionable takes for investors navigating today's volatility.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh to the Fed
[00:51 – 11:15]
Background and Market Reaction
- President Trump announced on Truth Social the selection of Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, as successor to Jerome Powell.
- Trump’s history of criticizing Powell and demanding lower rates adds intrigue to Warsh's appointment.
- Market responses: S&P closes down but up for the week; long-term Treasuries tick higher; the dollar rebounds sharply, suggesting markets anticipate a more hawkish than dovish Warsh.
Quote:
“That begs the question which Kevin Warsh will we get? The hawk who's rallied against inflation, may keep rates high, or the dove who will make the cuts Trump wants?” — Melissa Lee (01:08)
Analysis from Steve Liesman (“CNBC”)
- Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expects three rate cuts in 2026—timing in question.
- Liesman highlights Warsh’s market-savvy background:
“There's just no way that Kevin Warsh can go further than the market will let him go… and also, as you suggest, Melissa, with that feedback, further than its committee will let him go.” (04:39)
Panel Reaction
- Tim Seymour: Dollar rally not entirely due to Warsh pick, but notes Warsh isn’t an ideologue and is seen as a balanced, rational operator.
- Steve Grasso:
“You needed someone who's not a Trump puppet. And there’s no way anyone’s going to say that Warsh is a Trump puppet. He might tilt from hawkish to dovish, but he's been there since ’06. He’s been through the great financial crisis... He was not a proponent of large QE. I think it was a great pick.” (06:48)
Guest: David Zervos (Jefferies)
- Sees Warsh as a solid, market-accepted candidate but reminds listeners a Chair’s powers are checked by an 11-member committee. Big changes need consensus-building.
- Market non-reaction suggests uncertainty over Warsh’s actual impact versus typical “Fed Chair as king” narratives.
- Long-term: U.S. growth robust, employment tepid, inflation expectations well-anchored—a constructive macro backdrop.
2. Commodities & Market Volatility
[15:20 – 19:50]
Panel Discussion on Market Volatility
- Wild swings in precious metals and base metals—a pullback driven more by “trading aspect” and meme-ification than fundamentals.
- VIX up unexpectedly; options market signals rising uncertainty as earnings season intensifies.
Quote:
“I couldn’t feel more secure about a gold trade. I couldn’t have felt more insecure about the price action in terms of where we were going in the short term. I think gold could pull back a little bit more.” — Tim Seymour (18:19)
3. Disney CEO Succession Speculation
[19:50 – 23:25]
- Disney’s board set to meet to discuss a successor to Bob Iger.
- Front-runners: Parks chief Josh D’Amaro and Entertainment co-chair Dana Walden.
- Panel focuses on streaming (DTC) strength and the rebundling of Disney’s network content as core business drivers.
- Options and trading activity ahead of earnings show market positioning for a move.
Quote:
“Nobody’s Iger. So I think the stock really likes the Iger premium.” — Steve Grasso (23:08)
4. AI Disrupts Gaming Stocks
[25:17 – 28:58]
The “GenAI” Moment in Gaming
- Alphabet rolls out Project Genie, an AI tool that generates gaming worlds and characters, pressuring stocks like Unity Software and Roblox.
- Panel sees immediate selloffs as overdone and long-term potential for AI-driven productivity boosts across the industry.
Quote:
“Ultimately I think that these tools are going to be used by all three companies and bring down costs of producing games across the board. So ... in the long term these moves are end up being overdone in the immediacy.” — Bono (26:20)
5. Earnings Wrap: Tesla, Exxon, Chevron
[30:24 – 33:25]
- Energy giants beat earnings; panel bullish on integrated oil names for their efficiency and capital discipline.
- Tesla surges on renewed speculation of a SpaceX merger—panelists view story as more about narrative and “pie in the sky” than numbers.
Quote:
“Let me go energy. Sounds like there's enough pie in the sky out there. I think the move in energy stocks is sustainable.” — Tim Seymour (32:49)
6. Big Tech AI Spending: Capacity Bottlenecks
[34:09 – 42:25]
Guest: Rick Sherlund (Sherlund Partners)
- Surge in capex among big tech leaders as AI models proliferate.
- Software stocks suffer on “guilty until proven innocent” AI narrative; only truly “AI native” firms showing growth.
- Major constraint for cloud/AI: capacity, not demand.
- AI adoption in enterprise is just beginning; enormous future need for inference expected.
- The ultimate winners in LLM/AI will build robust application stacks, locking in developer ecosystems.
Quote:
“I would argue that in terms of demand, we are really just getting started ... There shouldn’t be any concerns that we’re going to burn up all the capacity that we can fund and build ... The constraints [are] building more data centers, not the demand side.” — Rick Sherlund (36:47)
7. Crypto Markets: Bitcoin’s Wobble
[42:25 – 44:25]
- Bitcoin falls below $82k before partial recovery; Microstrategy trades like a leveraged bet on BTC.
- Panel sees general “risk off” sentiment; awaits stabilization before committing.
Quote:
“MicroStrategy cuts both ways—you get that leverage on the way down, the way up. ... A host of reasons why it could have been sold off ... but I’m waiting to see that stabilization and I have not seen it yet.” — Steve Grasso (44:00)
8. Retail CEO Transitions: Walmart & Target
[44:25 – 46:46]
- Michael Fidalke (Target) & John Furner (Walmart) take the helm.
- Contrasting styles: Fidalke aims for growth, brand “cachet”; Furner’s continuity seen as Walmart’s strength.
- Target’s turnaround has more to prove; options market signals positive sentiment.
Quote:
“The status quo is just fine at Walmart ... Target obviously is the place where they have a lot to work on. And if he’s not ... concerned about upsetting the apple cart, I think that’s a good thing.” — Mike Coe (46:11)
9. Rapid-Fire Final Trades
[47:05]
- Mike Coe: Alphabet/Google options going into earnings
- Bono: Take-Two Interactive as a long-term opportunity
- Tim Seymour: Pfizer, expecting positive surprise in oncology business
- Steve Grasso: Tesla — “not the T in Tim’s Timbo!”
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- Melissa Lee [01:08]: “That begs the question which Kevin Warsh will we get? The hawk who's rallied against inflation, may keep rates high, or the dove who will make the cuts Trump wants?”
- Steve Liesman [04:39]: “There's just no way that Kevin Warsh can go further than the market will let him go ... and also, as you suggest, Melissa, with that feedback, further than its committee will let him go.”
- Steve Grasso [06:48]: “You needed someone who's not a Trump puppet. And there's no way anyone's going to say that Warsh is a Trump puppet.”
- Tim Seymour [18:19]: “I couldn’t feel more secure about a gold trade. I couldn’t have felt more insecure about the price action in terms of where we were going in the short term.”
- Steve Grasso [23:08]: “Nobody's Iger. So I think the stock really likes the Iger premium.”
- Rick Sherlund [36:47]: “I would argue that in terms of demand, we are really just getting started ... There shouldn’t be any concerns that we’re going to burn up all the capacity that we can fund and build ... The constraints [are] building more data centers, not the demand side.”
- Mike Coe [46:11]: “The status quo is just fine at Walmart ... Target obviously is the place where they have a lot to work on. And if he’s not ... concerned about upsetting the apple cart, I think that’s a good thing.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Trump Selects Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair: 00:51 – 11:15
- Market & Metals Volatility: 15:20 – 19:50
- Disney CEO Succession: 19:50 – 23:25
- AI vs. Gaming Stocks: 25:17 – 28:58
- Energy and Tesla Earnings: 30:24 – 33:25
- Big Tech AI Spending / Rick Sherlund: 34:09 – 42:25
- Bitcoin Breakdown: 42:25 – 44:25
- Walmart & Target CEO Changes: 44:25 – 46:46
- Final Trades: 47:05
Summary Takeaways
- Fed Policy: Warsh’s appointment heralds much speculation, but both panel and guests emphasize the practical checks on any chair’s power — markets and committee matter more than individual leanings.
- Big Tech’s AI Spending: Massive investments continue, constrained mainly by infrastructure build-out rather than slackening demand; “AI native” firms prioritized by investors.
- Market Volatility: Gold and silver’s wild rides are seen as trading excesses, not fundamental shifts.
- Corporate Leadership Transitions: Disney, Target, and Walmart are all set for pivotal succession moments, with leadership style and strategy at the fore.
- AI’s Disruption of Gaming: Panelists see immediate AI-driven selloffs in gaming stocks as likely overdone; productivity benefits are set to accrue across incumbents and disruptors alike.
- Crypto Sentiment: Bitcoin’s volatility interpreted as another symptom of broader risk-off mood, with no immediate signs of stabilization.
- Actionable Ideas: Panelists highlight trades in Alphabet, Take-Two, Pfizer, and Tesla as setups into next week.
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