Trump Rally Overdone?... And Netflix’s Subscriber Surge 1/22/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary: “Trump Rally Overdone?... And Netflix’s Subscriber Surge” (Release Date: January 22, 2025)

Hosted by Melissa Lee, CNBC's "Fast Money" brings together a panel of top traders—Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami—to dissect the latest market movements, earnings reports, and broader economic trends. In the January 22, 2025 episode titled “Trump Rally Overdone?... And Netflix’s Subscriber Surge,” the discussion navigates through soaring stock markets, cautious voices from industry leaders, and significant performances in the streaming and insurance sectors.

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Market Overview: Record Highs Amid Mixed Sentiments

(00:17 - 02:18)

Melissa Lee opens the episode by highlighting a record-breaking day for the markets. The S&P 500 reached an intraday high, buoyed by strong earnings and optimism about President Trump's potential impact on stocks. The Mag 7—Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, and others—are leading the NASDAQ, spurred by the announcement of a $500 billion Stargate infrastructure project.

Dan Nathan emphasizes the market's precarious position:

“These indicators suggest the market has less and less room for error on the upside.” (02:18)

However, voices of caution emerge. Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon have voiced concerns over market valuations. Musk questioned the financial backing of the Stargate project, stating:

“They don’t actually have the money to make it happen.” (01:51)

Tim Seymour adds a nuanced perspective:

“The pendulum has swung. We don’t know how far it is in its path to go.” (03:05)

Inflated Asset Prices and Market Sustainability

(02:00 - 06:24)

The panel discusses whether the market rally, potentially driven by Trump's pro-growth policies, is sustainable. Karen Feinerman points out that asset prices appear "inflated by any measure," suggesting that solid outcomes are necessary to justify current valuations.

Dan Nathan concurs, noting:

“The market has less and less room for error on the upside.” (02:18)

Guy Adami questions the reliance on the Mag 7:

“If fund managers don’t believe in the Mag 7 trade, aren’t we off to the races?” (06:24)

International Markets: Germany’s DAX Outperforms Amid Global Uncertainties

(07:10 - 12:04)

Shifting focus to international markets, the DAX in Germany hits all-time highs, outperforming the S&P by nearly 600 basis points. Carter Braxton Worth highlights the strong performance despite concerns over potential trade tensions with China:

“The rally that we’ve seen globally… Tariffs were not the number one criteria.” (10:17)

Karen Feinerman adds:

“China's priced so poorly,” but recognizes the necessity of China in the global economy. The panel debates whether geopolitical tensions, particularly with China, could introduce headwinds, but the immediate market response remains positive.

Apple’s Stock Pullback: Technical Concerns vs. Fundamental Strength

(13:17 - 19:30)

A significant portion of the discussion centers on Apple's stock performance. Despite beating earnings, Apple’s shares are down nearly 11% in January, trading near six-month lows. Carter Braxton Worth describes the technical pattern as a "head and shoulders," indicating a potential rollover:

“It has all the look and feel of something that is rolling over.” (16:50)

Karen Feinerman counters with a focus on Apple's fundamentals:

“iPhone sales, services, business, and margin... these give investors a lot of confidence.” (17:20)

Tim Seymour notes optimism driven by Apple's second and third pitches—services and margins—but acknowledges concerns over their competitive edge:

“They need to roll out AI features that make people want to buy phones.” (18:20)

Streaming Sector: Netflix’s Subscriber Surge and Competitive Pressures

(29:24 - 36:05)

Netflix shines as a standout performer, achieving all-time highs with a significant surge in subscribers. Tom Rogers, executive chairman of Orbit Media and Entertainment, commends Netflix's growth but outlines several caveats:

1. Aggregate Viewership: While Netflix boasts strong engagement, when combined with other streaming and linear services, its total viewership trails behind competitors.
2. Advertising Revenue:

   “Amazon, Peacock, Hulu all have higher streaming advertising revenue than Netflix.” (30:43)
   Netflix aims to double its ad revenue, which remains a critical battleground.

3. Algorithmic Technology: Enhancing advertising targeting to compete with tech giants.
4. Gaming Integration:

   “Until they get those games up on the television set instead of on the phone… they’re not going to get there.” (Tom Rogers, 30:43)

Carter Braxton Worth suggests potential strategic acquisitions to bolster Netflix’s position, such as acquiring Snap to enhance advertising capabilities:

“There’s a lot of ways to grow that advertising.” (36:18)

Insurance Sector: Travelers’ Strong Earnings Amid California Wildfires

(37:45 - 41:45)

Turning to the insurance industry, Travelers reported a record year for profits, surpassing street expectations thanks to robust investment income driven by higher interest rates. However, the impact of California’s wildfires poses significant challenges.

Contessa Brewer, CNBC contributor, explains:

“Travelers was careful to couch its profitability and its potential with sympathy for the fire victims in California.” (37:45)

Travelers is navigating the delicate balance between maintaining investor returns and managing public relations issues amid policy cancellations and rate hikes. The company’s strategy includes limiting exposure to wildfire risks, but the first-quarter impacts remain unclear.

Divergence in Healthcare Stocks: Moderna vs. Johnson & Johnson

(41:45 - 43:33)

The healthcare sector showcases a stark contrast between Moderna and Johnson & Johnson (JJ). While Moderna sees its shares rising, propelled by a $590 million HHS grant for bird flu vaccine development, Johnson & Johnson's stock declines despite an earnings beat. J&J's cancer drug sales boosted profits by 19%, but its psoriasis treatment Stellara faced a 15% revenue drop due to international competition.

Dan Nathan cautions:

“The problems that were around Moderna for this entire move lower... have not gone away.” (42:57)

Earnings and Sector Highlights: Airlines and Technology

(25:27 - 27:22)

The episode also covers earnings from airlines, with Alaska Airlines outperforming expectations by reporting earnings of 97 cents per share versus the expected 44 cents. Ben Minicucci, CEO of Alaska Airlines, is scheduled to discuss the company's strong performance and strategic moves.

Dan Nathan highlights:

“American Airlines is completely underperforming and may start to outperform after tomorrow’s report.” (27:55)

Conclusion: Balancing Optimism with Caution

(43:44 - 44:57)

As the episode wraps up, the panel reflects on the delicate balance between market optimism and underlying risks. While sectors like streaming and insurance show strong performances, concerns about market valuations, geopolitical tensions, and sector-specific challenges persist.

Melissa Lee signs off with a reminder to visit CNBC’s resources for further insights and to register for their AI success course, underscoring the show's commitment to providing actionable news for investors.

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Notable Quotes:

• Dan Nathan on market indicators:

  “These indicators suggest the market has less and less room for error on the upside.” (02:18)

• Tim Seymour on market pendulum:

  “The pendulum has swung. We don’t know how far it is in its path to go.” (03:05)

• Carter Braxton Worth on Apple’s technical pattern:

  “It has all the look and feel of something that is rolling over.” (16:50)

• Tom Rogers on Netflix's challenges:

  “They’ve got to demonstrate that they can lead the pack.” (30:43)

• Contessa Brewer on Travelers' strategy:

  “Travelers was careful to couch its profitability and its potential with sympathy for the fire victims in California.” (37:45)

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions from the episode, offering insights into market dynamics, sector-specific performances, and the interplay between optimism and caution among investors.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

Learn how to use AI to be more successful with cnbc. Make it's new online course.

[Guy Adami]

We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.

[Melissa Lee]

Go to CNBCmakeit.com AI and register now.

[Guy Adami]

Live in the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. All time highs, The S and P hitting a record for the first time this year. And Most of the Mag 7 seeing big gains. But will words of caution from the likes of Jamie Dimon and even even Elon Musk put a damper on the euphoria? We'll debate it. Plus streaming gains, Netflix at all time highs of its own after earnings. But will this rising tide lift all other media boats? We'll talk to longtime industry exec Tom Rogers to get some answers. And later, the Chartmaster's warning after Apple's pullback. Insurance giant Travelers gets a boost after earnings. And two health care names moving in starkly different directions. We've got the trades on JNJ and Moderna. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. Economy we start off with a record day for the markets. The S&P 500 hitting a fresh intraday high as investors digest strong earnings and seem to look favorably on what President Trump will mean for stocks. Max seven stocks leading the NASDAQ on the back of yesterday's announcement of a $500 billion Stargate infrastructure project. Nvidia and Microsoft leading the pack. And Oracle putting together its best two day gain in over three years. But one close adviser to the president appeared to pour cold water on the red hot trade. Elon Musk claiming The Stargate backers OpenAI Orac SoftBank, they don't actually have the money to make it happen. And those weren't the only words of caution today. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon telling Squawk Box this morning from Davos that he thinks the entire market is overvalued.

[Melissa Lee]

I think asset prices are kind of.

[Karen Feinerman]

Inflated and you know, by any measure and you need fairly good outcomes to justify those prices.

[Melissa Lee]

And, and we're all hoping for that.

[Karen Feinerman]

And I think, you know, having progress strategies helps make that happen. But, but there are negatives out there.

[Melissa Lee]

And they can tend to surprise you.

[Guy Adami]

So is this apparent belief that all of Trump's promises will come to fruition and in the best of ways, is that justified and already Baked into this market guy.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, this has nothing to do with President Trump now, but he's walking into a market and there was something going around the Internet today. Nine of the metrics that we talk about seemingly almost every day, but from time to time are in the 98th to 100th percentile of where they've been historically on the overbought side of things. That sort of flies in the face of what we saw in January of 09, when all those metrics were at sort of 1 or 2% in terms of being on the oversold. So when Jamie Dimon says that, there's reason to say it, and that's Cape ratios, Buffett indicator, price to earnings, there's a myriad of different things. But with that said, you know, these indicators are not a timing mechanism. We say it all the time. But what I've tried to say is what these suggest is the market has less and less room for error on the upside.

[Tim Seymour]

So, you know, I always like to hear what Jamie Dimon has said, of course, but I feel like, you know, animal spirits don't trade to fair value and stop. Right. So the pendulum has swung. We don't know how far it is in its path to go.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

I agree with you.

[Tim Seymour]

You know, you can't really trade around and try to say, oh, I'm going to sell things at fair value and then I will absolutely have the chance to buy them back later. It doesn't work like that. So for me, I'm always staying long. Though I do look at the volatility index. I think it will be higher in the not too distant future. So I'd be inclined to buy some protection there.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah. Last night you were casting some doubt over these commitments as well in terms of the infrastructure project.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

I mean, listen, all these companies have already committed to spending tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years to build out their infrastructure. I would say, you know, it's not all going to be in the US and maybe that's the thing that's changed. But whether it happens and this is new capital to kind of make these sorts of investments, I think Elon is right. Where does the money come from? You know, these companies, again, have to be very careful about Capex. I know that they're not willing to ask for permission and they would rather ask for, you know, obviously forgiveness, you know, if the thing doesn't pan out. But I think we're going into a digestion phase. The last thing I'll just say is that, well, I'm sure I'll say a few other things, but the last thing I'll say in this bit is that, you know, the Trump administration is coming into a pretty decent economy. You think about it, you know, you have unemployment at 4%. You have, you know, PC and CPI, you know, on their way down 3%. However you measure it on their way maybe to 2%. And then you have GDP, it was 3%, you know, last year, expected to be 2 1/2%. These pro growth sort of policies, if they work, should have GDP trending higher. So I mean, to me, at the end of the day, we're all, no matter what side you're on, we want the economy to do well and we want the markets to do well, and maybe they're set up well to do that. But the guy's point, there are some potential headwinds.

[Karen Feinerman]

So first of all, Elon Musk's comments are interesting to me because I can also interpret them as maybe they're starting to be a little bit, yeah, some sharp elbows, a little bit infighting. You know, some people are certainly fighting over who's going to get the allocations to some of these mandates or actually some of that capital. I do think whether funded now, the message from the markets is it doesn't really matter. The message is there will be funding for AI. And I look at, you know, the, the bank of America Fund manager survey, where there's a lot of interesting data and there were the numbers that came out just yesterday. First of all, air bubble was really a distant, distant risk in terms of tail risk for the market. So I, you know, if that's where the institutional community is, I think that's fair. In fact, the Fed, who, who's meeting Monday, I mean, you know, suddenly they know the Fed. That could be a bigger risk for markets in, in the short term. I think then, then a lot of this I get back though, to we have had some really solid earnings already. You know, look at, look at the banks gave you, we had Netflix. We've had some. Again, not the core is going to report next week and really over the next couple of weeks we're going to get into it. But the argument here is that margins are decent, that the, some of the most important companies in the world are as profitable as they've ever been. They came into this year as profitable as they've ever been. And then I would just get to the markets themselves. Are we starting to see that relative outperformance of semiconductors and the triple cues again? And if we are the markets are going higher and it's great leadership whether you want it or not. It's the kind of leadership that says get out of the way and don't fight it.

[Guy Adami]

That was the question mark. Right. Whether or not the MAG7 trade could continue this year. We got a great hand from the banks in terms of what we were dealt at the beginning of earnings season. Fantastic. But you needed the Mag 7 to work. So if, if fund managers don't believe. If a bubble is not a top worry among fund managers at this point and we're getting all this juice from all these promises, guy, aren't we off to the races?

[Dan Nathan]

There's a great line about juice in a movie. I don't know about this juice, but you better have a lot of it. And that's really what they're talking. It's actually called the Gambler. If you really want to go. James Caan. I believe it was 1975. Ish.

[Karen Feinerman]

If you're going to reference a movie, you got to let us know.

[Dan Nathan]

I just told you that.

[Guy Adami]

But it shouldn't take five minutes.

[Dan Nathan]

But there's not a lot of people that know that movie. I forgot what I was going to say.

[Karen Feinerman]

Not one of his best.

[Guy Adami]

You need the juice.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah. And it needs to continue. And you know, which is fine. But when you're trading at the valuations that we just were talking about before, it's important that it continues and it carries over. So my concern is obviously there's enthusiasm. Nvidia has gotten itself off the mat now within four or five dollars of the prior all time high. But that's been offset by what we've seen in Apple. So there's definitely a push me pull you going on.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Yeah. So there's been so many comparisons obviously to the late 90s, into the dot com sort of bubble. And I think that if you were fast money existed and I was on it back then, I might have been a little skeptical about how it's going to change industries in the near term. I think long term a lot of us feel like this is kind of a game changer and we get it. You know, when I think about the late 90s, when was it in like 95 when Greenspan said the markets are showing a bit of irrational exuberance and then the S and P proceeded to go up 25% a year for the next five years. Right. And so we've had two 25% plus years. The last year was clearly, clearly drawn or driven by the fateful eight. Right. And I know CNBC has this thing about the Mag 7 which is funny, you know, they should throw the Broadcom in there, make it the fateful eight. So maybe these companies, if the Capex comes in better than expected. That's what I'm really waiting for next month or next week. Excuse me. To see what they have to say on that front.

[Guy Adami]

Agreed, Agreed. I mean the Capex numbers from all of the other, that's going to be important. But at least now there's potential money coming from the government to replace that Capex if it is.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

But that's the point. It's not coming from the government. That was the CHIPS act last year.

[Guy Adami]

That was a government sponsor fund terminal. From the private sector into some of these companies.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Yeah, maybe.

[Tim Seymour]

Let me just go to Fateful eight, Max, whatever you want to call. There's a couple of them that even with this run, the valuation is, you know, not too demanding as Guy would say. When you look at a Metta, you know, mid 20 to 267 multiple, not, not even taking account the cash. Same for Alphabet. To me those are still closer to value than they are to. Really stretched.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah.

[Karen Feinerman]

Is this the part of the show where we talk international markets to. Or is that.

[Dan Nathan]

Do we have.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

We have.

[Karen Feinerman]

Let's trade the globe. Let's trade the globe. Well, so if you look at international markets, the places around the world that were supposed to be so weak, they've really outperformed. They haven't just outperformed year to date, but they've outperformed over the last three months. The DAX in Germany is at all time highs. It's outperformed the S and p by almost 600 basis points. It's a case where, you know, if you look at international markets and we heard this from JJ who reported today, they talked about a 1.8 billion headwind. Now JJ's numbers were really more about what they're not doing and the growth that's there. And to name I'm long and I think it's an undervalued stock but they were talking about effects. So I get back to, you know, companies like first of all the European banks that have announced over the last couple of weeks, Barclays, you know, Santander and if you look at some of the rallies across those banks and you look at the German industrials, I think there's a trade here. Look, I run an international etf. It's definitely a case. That was the I, by the way in Bicepo and I've been watching these companies closely over the last nine months. And these are companies that are actually starting to really inflect into some of this US Strength. They are some of the names that I actually think are going to be out.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

What about China?

[Karen Feinerman]

What about it?

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Well, I'm just saying it seems an outlier to the theme that you just mentioned. And again, if China is going to be at the heart of any trade war here with bigger, you know, tariffs than some people expect, I mean, at some point they have massive deflation. Right. If they were to export that a little bit around the world, that makes those headwinds for those economies that much worse. Right.

[Karen Feinerman]

Relative to ours, some more than others. So Germany's definitely one of the major export economies the world into China. I mean, what's been interesting over the last couple of days is the rally that we've seen globally is kind of like this, you know, day one, day two. Tariffs were not the number one criteria, the number one initiative out there. So I don't really know what the timing means and I do know that the headlines are certainly going to continue to be nasty and I do think the world needs China here, but I think China's priced so poorly.

[Dan Nathan]

Melissa, may I direct a question to Tim, the emerging Hi. Am I allowed?

[Guy Adami]

Yes, thank you.

[Dan Nathan]

Thank you.

[Karen Feinerman]

I say yes, Tim.

[Dan Nathan]

There's a Bank of Japan meeting now. They're talking about rates. So there's a lot of interesting things going which, you know, and I'm kidding around, but, you know, till recently the yen had almost weakened the levels we saw over the summer. It stopped. But their interest rates have been going higher with the weakening currency. So there's a lot of things going on in Japan now that I don't think the market's paying enough.

[Melissa Lee]

No.

[Karen Feinerman]

And again, you talk about some of those systemic risks. I mean, I think the bigger risks are that not only Japan is a problem, but also that the Fed is going to have to be more hawkish than they want to be. So I think the rest of the world is worth focusing on, even though, again, the start of this conversation was about AI and what's really been driving our markets the last couple of days.

[Tim Seymour]

Just one last thing on the international in Europe, I think the chance of a Ukraine, Russia, something positive. Yes. Has gone up a fair amount and I think that's somewhat reflective. But I do think if they actually reach that some sort of agreement, that there'll be more to come for certainly Germany, but all over Europe.

[Guy Adami]

So all that said, US Banks or.

[Karen Feinerman]

European banks, European banks are cheaper and they have higher distribution payout levels and I think as much as there are systemic credit problems across Europe more than there are in the US I like those names, but I'm very long. Citibank, bank of America and JP Morgan. So I'm still standing there.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, no, go ahead. I'll just say real quick, Citi is the one that I think in terms of valuation, I think that one, even with the move we've seen from $60 or so to this 82 level, that's the one that's still really interesting.

[Guy Adami]

But going back to the point that Karen made earlier in terms of the overall market and whether or not we are in a euphoric state, how the pendulum usually doesn't stop right at the middle. It always goes beyond. It feels like we can. I mean, can we go higher from here? It feels like the markets want to believe all the promises, all of the potential, all the hopes.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Let me throw something else down. Back in 2017, when those tax cuts came is about a trillion and a half dollars. You know what the corporates did with those tax cuts over the next two years, they bought a trillion and a half dollars back of stock. So if you think about that, I mean, that could obviously be a huge, huge tailwind. I want to ask, are we doing Oracle here or. No, we do an Oracle later. We move past Stargate, everybody being very.

[Guy Adami]

What is really going on?

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Sorry, I just feel like that was in the rundown. We were going to do some Stargate, but then we got into like European banks or something like that. They have better payout ratio.

[Tim Seymour]

Next.

[Karen Feinerman]

Just grab a spot.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

All right, real quickly on the Oracle thing. I find it really curious that the stock, this huge rally came in a little bit from it. We were talking about it last night, you know, when the stock sold off in December 10, when they reported their Q2 earnings, you know, yeah, people are excited a little bit about 50% cloud growth. For them, it's off a really small base. It was two and a half billion dollars in the quarter, about 17% of their revenue in the quarter. But people were concerned about the guidance that they gave on a sequential basis. It was supposed to decelerate meaningfully below 30%. So when you think about this, for a company like Oracle, you better have some new funding, you better have expanded deals with some of the other folks and be able to compete, you know, with Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and us. But I don't think they have the models on their cloud that's going to make them that interesting for other companies to kind of rent that commute. Compute. So Decelerating growth. This deal, you know, maybe it sticks, maybe it doesn't. But to me I think you want to be skeptical of some of these companies that rallied off this real quick.

[Dan Nathan]

Oracle traded 44 million shares today, typically trades 8. And that had a, it's had a ridiculous run. That this recent run has actually got the stock from relatively inexpensive in this environment to a little bit expensive. So I'm sort of with Dan on this one.

[Guy Adami]

May I move on now? Should we take a vote? Asking, not asking. Apple shares are up half a percent today, but down almost 11% so far in January. The stock now trading on more than six month lows. Nvidia reclaiming the position as the world's most valuable company. Yesterday bumping Apple to the number two spot. And now Microsoft getting close to, to pushing it down to number three. The charmaster is doubling down on the call he made back in November. Keep on selling. Carter Worth joins us now. Carter, why, what do the charts show you?

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, what is it? I mean, I guess there's that old fashioned technical expression. The stock doesn't act well and people don't like it. They're like, what are you personifying the stock? But they understand it. When a pitcher doesn't act well, they say get them out. If, if a player or a student, you know, let's change horses, so to speak. So what we know is just year to date, I mean Apple's down almost 11% in a market that's up 3 to 4% whether you look at the market overall or the tech sector. But we do have one chart. Let's, let's talk about it. It's a relative performance chart and what it depicts, of course as a ratio it depicts Apple's relative performance to the tech sector. And what you're looking at here is the peak which was in Q3 2022. Now one could say, hold on, I went and checked. Since the end of Q3, 2022, Apple's up almost 50%. This is true, but the tech sector is up 100. And so what that means is that's the definition of a bad pick. One could say, I don't care, I made 50%. But if the alternatives are better, it's the definition of no alpha. And so that is a problem. Being down 10% in the strong goings for the year so far is a problem. And then there is this pattern which is I think problematic. You can call it a head and shoulders if you want. That's how I've annotated it. But it has all the look and feel of something that is rolling over.

[Guy Adami]

All right, Carter. Thank you. Carter Braxton, Worth charting. And then on the fundamental side, you have a lot of Wall street analysts coming in getting much more skeptical of Apple. Just yesterday there were two downgrades. A week before Moffitt, Moffitt Nathanson went to a sell rating. JP Morgan yesterday cut the price target on Apple. It's piling up. It is piling up here.

[Dan Nathan]

You don't see that. And it's so head and shoulders. Yes. But the question I guess you have to ask. And Carter's left. I'm not bringing back the guests. But you know something, you have to let your ace pitch through some of the troubles in baseball he is having. And I think that's the situation right here. Piece of confetti flying by Karen's ear to 20 was a huge level. That's where we traded down to in November and bounced. That's seemingly where we held recently. But it closed below 220. Sets up a potential move round trip that June move back to 193.

[Karen Feinerman]

But if a pitcher has great stuff and he has four or five pitches you can go to if the fastball is not working, which is iPhone sales and units. But it's actually, you know, services, business and margin. I mean these are things that I think should give investors a lot of confidence this quarter. And what we're going to get out of Apple is not going to be about the quarter itself. It's going to be about the outlook. And when I think about places where Apple can continue to keep investors happy and again be that ace of the staff that isn't necessarily pitching their best game right now, that's what they're going to do here. They have a second and a third pitch that can get people out. And in the case of Apple, they are buying back shares, the valuation is going higher. They have an incredible free cash flow generation. They have an installed base that hasn't priced any, maybe because it doesn't deserve to. That's fine. But it's not in the price.

[Guy Adami]

What is, what is the second or third? I mean I'm granted, I really cannot continue this metaphor but I will do a great second or third pitch though because they need to roll out AI features that make people want to buy phones and we have not seen that yet. Well, what is that next thing?

[Karen Feinerman]

I think their, their fastball is the iPhone and the ability to refresh that over and over. But the second and the third pitch are services and margins. The Margins. The margins are better. Okay. The margins are getting better and they will continue to get better. I think at least in the short run. Services business isn't growing at the Delta. It was five years ago, but it's still such a meaningful part of the business. So that's, that's where I am. I mean this, every team needs an ace of the staff and you know, Yankees probably have too many.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

You're 100% right on the margin thing has been, you know, it was a 43% a few years ago, now 46. Almost 47% that does come from services. I'll tell you this, kids are not going to upgrade their iPhones if TikTok is not downloadable in the iPhone store. I'm going to tell you that right now. So this is a massive headwind, you know, for the kids upgrading. I'm just matter of fact. Okay. And then the other thing is China is really weak. There's new form factors coming out in the fall. Let's see if that's that third pitch or whatever it is.

[Karen Feinerman]

But knuckleball, you typically, typically knuckle doesn't.

[Guy Adami]

Have a Stanford candle. Told me like that's their only pitch.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

What do you got?

[Melissa Lee]

What do you got?

[Tim Seymour]

At what point is Tommy John surgery?

[Karen Feinerman]

Well, that's fair. So is there a UCL tear that's slowly happening in Apple's game? I love the sports metaphors show unto.

[Guy Adami]

Itself but it's not coming up. It's not in the game. Shares of Electronic Arts dropping after a big warning out of the video game maker. The news sending that stock lower next. And speaking of earnings travelers higher on its report how the California wildfires are impacting the company and what the results mean for the entire insurance space. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in two.

[Tim Seymour]

My dad works in B2B marketing.

[Melissa Lee]

He came by my school for career day and said he was a big roas man. Then he told everyone how much he.

[Guy Adami]

Loved calculating his return on ad spend.

[Melissa Lee]

My friends still laugh at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B but with LinkedIn you'll be able to reach people who do get $100 credit on your next ad campaign.

[Karen Feinerman]

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[Guy Adami]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of EA dropping after hours of video game company slashing its full year guidance and revising its forecast forecasts for the holiday quarter lower. Steve Kovac is here with more. Steve?

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, and this just keeps dropping. When I first reported this a little bit after markets closed, it was only down about 5% now down nearly 11% it looks like. And this is because in the December quarter, Electronic art says it's global football business, not American football. We're going to keep the sports metaphors going, guys. This is, this is soccer. Soccer. There's their football club. 24 game did not perform as well in the December quarter as they had anticipated. They saw some early momentum early in the quarter, hence the guidance. But now they're knocking off about half a billion dollars for their full fiscal year guidance for the quarter ending in March. And that's just based basically lackluster gameplay on this. There's one other game that also underperformed, a game called Dragon Age Inquisition. I know you guys are huge Dragon Age Inquisition fans, so Guy Adami has been playing it all the time. Level seven mage over here.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

I'm level eight.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. And that game also underperformed, so that's what we're seeing. But this is coming ahead. We're getting a really exciting year of video games coming up. We got the Nintendo Switch 2. We're going to get more details on that console launching one of the biggest console launches ever. And then later in the year, Grand Theft Auto, that is going to just print money. We got to talk about that. That's coming from Take two Interactive. So some lackluster gaming performance at the end of the, at the end of last year. This year it's going to be different.

[Guy Adami]

Okay, so the console upgrade, how is that? Do we know any details about the console, like pricing?

[Melissa Lee]

We'll get more on April 2nd. They just showed it off briefly last week. But that's going to be the next big video game story coming here. Electronic Arts, by the way, will have titles on there. We'll be able to take advantage of that. And also, by the way, the thought is later in this year that Grand Theft Auto will help kind of rising tide lift all boats in the gaming sector here. But, but disappointing holiday quarter, it sounds like for Electronic Arts, February 4th, they'll have their real earnings. We'll get all the details and explanation maybe why this happened and where that energy went. One game that they do have that has been performing well, they brought college football back after the nil issue was resolved from the Supreme Court. They were able to bring that back and actually pay players. That's been a huge success for them. But their biggest game is football club not doing well in the December quarter.

[Guy Adami]

All right, what's.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

What's the nerd game that Musk plays like five hours?

[Melissa Lee]

Oh, Diablo.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Yeah, yeah.

[Melissa Lee]

Diablo 4. That's Activision. Microsoft.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

So let me ask you this, because that Microsoft Activision deal, because I is so into this. This is what there's any. I put.

[Melissa Lee]

The parents are watching, by the way, talking about video games.

[Dan Nathan]

You know, I am a nerd.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Dan Nathan]

I mean, let's get it out there.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

It's not like that.

[Melissa Lee]

Were you paying Dungeons and dragons in the 70s? Yeah.

[Dan Nathan]

Hondo.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah.

[Guy Adami]

Still in costumes.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

So the EA is the E and my Jenny. I trade. Is there any potential for other M and A? And that was that. You know, Microsoft made that big activation. You see Take two out there that.

[Melissa Lee]

Kind of evaporated after that Take two deal buying Zynga and then Microsoft finally closing the deal with Activision. We have not seen much. In fact, it's been kind of contracting. We've seen a lot of layoffs in the video game industry. We've seen a lot of changes related to that kind of stuff. It's really kind of setting the stage here in order for this next stage of growth that's expected with the new Nintendo console with this launch of gta, which by the way, is going to knock every record out of the park. You think we get excited when movies make $1 billion in the box office every two or three weeks? This is going to do that in a couple of days. It's going to be huge.

[Guy Adami]

Steve. Thanks, Kovac. There's a lot more Fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Melissa Lee]

Rising subscribers, prices and stock. How Netflix blew past Wall street expectations with their latest earnings report and what it means for the streaming wars. But first, insurance stocks in focus as results start to filter in. How travelers was able to handle higher losses from the California wildfires and what it'll mean for the rest of the industry. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. Learn how to use AI to be more successful with cnbc make it's new online course.

[Guy Adami]

We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.

[Melissa Lee]

Go to CNBCmakeit.com AI and register now.

[Guy Adami]

Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got an earnings alert on Alaska Airline. Shares are higher after Airline just reported earnings earlier than expected, the first full quarter since the Hawaiian Air deal closed. Philippe Philippeau joins us on the fast line right now. Phil? Melissa, it was a big quarter.

[Melissa Lee]

The earnings parade continues for the airlines which had huge, huge numbers in the fourth quarter. Alaska, no different, earning 97 cents a share. That is more than double what the street was expecting at 44 cents a share. Revenue coming in better than expected at 3.53 billion. Now, the revenue per seat mile was.

[Karen Feinerman]

Lower than expected and the cost per.

[Melissa Lee]

Seat mile was greater than expected. That's really the only thing you can really quibble about in this report. Then there's the guidance for the first quarter of this year, smaller than expected loss of 50 to 70 cents.

[Guy Adami]

The street is expecting a loss right.

[Melissa Lee]

Now of 72 cents. And for the full year, the guidance is greater than 575 a share. Now that's a tad light of the current consensus of 592, but that gives them wiggle room in case they outperform throughout the year. But again, Alaska beating on the top.

[Guy Adami]

And the bottom line.

[Melissa Lee]

Lots to discuss with Ben Minicucci, CEO of Alaska Airlines. Tomorrow on the Exchange, a CNBC exclusive.

[Guy Adami]

You do not want to miss. And again, Alaska beating on the top.

[Melissa Lee]

And the bottom line. Melissa, back to you.

[Guy Adami]

All right, Phil, thank you. Filibo in Alaska, which is up by 1.7%. Of course, this follows a number of airline stocks which have done quite well this year on the back of strong earnings.

[Karen Feinerman]

Well, in fact, you've got airline companies, whether it's ual that have output performed in video over the last rolling 12 months. So what's going on in airlines is and Phil used, he actually talked through those acronyms whether it was cost per available seat miles or revenue per available seat miles. So that would be RASM and chasm because that's what we like to do here. But you like to do those. Yes, those numbers are growing and for the most part the industry continues to be more efficient than they have been. It's a case where capacity is not really growing and prices are going higher.

[Tim Seymour]

I got a question for Guy. Oh, United Airlines opens huge, right? Closes lows, is lower, not good.

[Dan Nathan]

Price, action, volume.

[Guy Adami]

Look at you in your head like.

[Dan Nathan]

You kind of think it's an exhausted the rally and whoever was long the stock took the opportunity to get out of it. I think you bring up a great point which leads me to my next point, if I may. It's American Airlines. What's that show on CNBC during lunchtime.

[Guy Adami]

Power lunch Power lunch. That's depends on when you eat lunch. Actually if you eat lunch at 11, then it's.

[Dan Nathan]

I meant money because I think was January 6th or 7th that Kelly interviewed the analyst from Jefferies. And then I came on this show and I said I just saw a great interview earlier today. And the Jefferies analysts upgraded the stock saying American was to get into higher margin businesses. That's the beta play. And look at Americans actually done really well. So American Airlines is completely underperformed. They report tomorrow. I think it's going to start to outperform.

[Karen Feinerman]

Well, it's like the Citibank to JP Morgan trade in banks. I mean American Airlines has been a disaster over years. It's had a bad balance sheet. They have the most to improve here. So it makes sense.

[Guy Adami]

You were mentioning comments about Boeing from Scott Kirby.

[Tim Seymour]

Oh yes. I don't know if you watched the Scott Kirby interview, which was very good. He's obviously very positive. But also had some nice things to say about Boeing. You know, they've had some, some issues. But he felt like Boeing was being the, being banned.

[Guy Adami]

By the way, it's the what?

[Karen Feinerman]

It's the Z, the acronym that actually is an acronym banned.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Okay. Wasn't it the B in bicep too?

[Karen Feinerman]

You know what?

[Guy Adami]

No, that was baba, which is the.

[Karen Feinerman]

B in your zebra.

[Tim Seymour]

Anyway, nice comments, nice comments about the CEO about morale. There he was visiting them and he felt like, all right, things are bottoming out at Boeing.

[Guy Adami]

All right, coming up, has the king of streaming been crowned? Netflix surging to all time highs as record subscriber growth fuels gains. But that's not the only thing heading higher. The price hikes hitting your wallet. What it all means for the other streaming players. Fast Money's back into.

[Melissa Lee]

Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the Go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[Guy Adami]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks climbing again today with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh record high. The Dow jumping 130 points and the NASDAQ leading the charge up more than 1%. And some after hours action. And Discover Financial shares on the move after the company reported earnings and revenues that beat expectations. Meantime, Netflix shares rallying almost 10%, setting a record close after earnings last night. The stock getting within $1 of the $1,000 a share market ultimately close at 9:54. The streamer yesterday reported historic subscriber growth. One media trailblazer remains bullish on the streaming giant with some caveats. Let's bring in CNBC founder and contributor Tom Rogers. He served as NBC Cable President. Tom is now executive chairman of Orbit Media and Entertainment.

[Dan Nathan]

I think he deserves a clap in Tim. This doesn't happen on the other shows.

[Karen Feinerman]

It doesn't deserve to either.

[Guy Adami]

But when you have the Godfather shall remain unnamed.

[Tom Rogers]

I'm breathless. I'm not going to be able to offer any analysis after that.

[Guy Adami]

What are the caveats, though, to Netflix's success story?

[Tom Rogers]

Well, as you said, I've been a huge bull on Netflix, but I think taking a step back, there are probably four areas that I'm watching now to see if they're really going to climb the next hill. One is certainly aggregate viewership. Netflix does great engagement, average two hours a day per subscriber of viewing. But YouTube, Disney, NBC, Paramount, when you aggregate their streaming and their linear services, all have more aggregate viewership than Netflix. So that's a big one for them to take on. Secondly, advertising. They said that that was obviously going to be a huge priority for them this year, but just in the streaming space. Amazon, Peacock, Hulu, all have higher streaming advertising revenue than Netflix. Now, if they double their ad revenue this year, as they projected, that may catapult them to the top, but another big one in the competitive arena to watch. Third, they've ace technology when it comes to algorithms that put in front of you the things that you're most likely going to watch, which has something to do with their big engagement numbers. But they're going to have to take technology to the advertising realm there. That's a big issue for the linear players too, because they have a lot more spots in linear television than they do in streaming. So to get those streaming ads more valuable, they have to be targeted to be more valuable to the advertiser. Netflix said it's bringing its streaming technology in house in the United States. It's got to do that to enhance its programmatic advertising, its targeting and its measurement. That's a big one that it's got to really demonstrate that it can get that much more value for its ads. And last is gaming. They really haven't done much when it comes to using gaming to acquire subs or retaining subs. They did say, and this is was always intuitive to me, the gaming where they get the best engagement are the ones where there's Netflix IP in the game related to the shows. But to me, until they get those games up on the television set instead of on the phone, so you're playing them right after you're watching one of their shows and you really can continue the engagement of the viewer In a game beyond the TV show, they're not going to get there and that's something that I think they got to put a lot of work into.

[Guy Adami]

The gaming aspect seems like a lever they can pull at another time when they're sort of out of tricks. But in terms of the ad ad supported tier, I get your commentary. I mean they only launched in November of 2022 and so compared to a lot of the others which already had the infrastructure in place in order to place ads and etc. Bring in the inventory, it seems almost unfair to say the others have much more when more than 50% of their new users in the US, Canada and UK are actually opting for the ad supported tier. So they're really gaining traction on that level.

[Tom Rogers]

I think you're right. They, they got a pretty good game but that's an area where to really demonstrate that they're the most valuable media company in the world across all realms. That advertising game has people ahead of them now and I think they got to demonstrate that they can lead the pack.

[Dan Nathan]

There are some people that may think when I say stud to Tom, there's some mockery. There is no mockery. That is sincerity. I mock myself.

[Guy Adami]

You say that off camera as well. I've heard that even when Tom is not here. When Tom is not here, you will.

[Dan Nathan]

Say that in absentia.

[Guy Adami]

Exactly.

[Dan Nathan]

Just wanted to get that out of the way. So here's my question to you. With the stock at an all time high, is it time for them potentially to use that as currency to maybe make some tack on bolt on strategic acquisition?

[Tom Rogers]

I know that's a serious and not a mocking question. Serious question. Let me give you a serious answer. I don't think they need to do much in terms of using that currency. I think obviously it's valuable as hell and my mind it's going higher. But they have so much organic strength on, you know, all the areas that I didn't mention, which is they're the one player that's proved that it's got true global scale and being able to maintain $18 billion in content investment that drives the engagement and a price value relationship where they can take price increases. When you got a flywheel like that going. The notion of engagement, I don't, I'm sorry, acquisition I don't think is a big one for them but I must say I think they will get to a point where these free advertising supported streaming service so called fast channels which when you turn on your TV there are hundreds of them now at some point that is a way to improve their advertising game in terms of total scale without having to push more inventory into the advertising side of their subscriber base. And down the road, that may well be something they consider.

[Guy Adami]

Tom, there's never enough time with you. Thank you for stopping by.

[Tom Rogers]

Thank you. And thank you for clarifying. That's a serious.

[Dan Nathan]

I mean, I'm surprised they even have to do that. But you know, well, you're toe in.

[Guy Adami]

A voice sometimes is knowing. So I can understand why there might be some confusion regarding that. Anyway, are you a bull or a bear on Netflix?

[Carter Braxton Worth]

I think everything that Tom laid out, we all talked about it last night. Here's a company that's firing at all cylinders. You look at the revenue growth, you look at their earnings growth, you look at that margin growth, it's hard to say no. I just don't think get you chasing here. One thing I'd say is that I think they should buy a company like Snap, I think with like an $18 billion enterprise value. And I'll tell you why. Remember when Snap. No, remember when Disney, remember when Disney really wanted to buy Twitter back in 2016? I look at a company like this, that is a real technology company and they're going into advertising and there's no way for stuff to go viral outside of their platform per se. Maybe a little advertising like I think a network like that bolted on to Netflix. I think there's a lot of way to grow that advertising.

[Guy Adami]

I think there's a lot of spot.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Yeah, I mean spots too big at 100 billion. But they also buy EA on the gaming front and EA is getting cheaper by the minute.

[Guy Adami]

Coming up, a divergence in the health care space. Shares of J and Jane Moderna heading in opposite directions. The reasons and the trades on both names next. Plus, Travelers jumping on strong earnings even as the future of the insurance industry looks more uncertain than ever. How California's wildfires shareholders are affecting these names next. Welcome back to FAST money. Shares of Travelers taking off after a big earnings beat. But the insurance company profitability a sensitive topic in the wake of the deadly California wildfires. CNBC's Contessa Brewer joins us now here on set for more on Travelers as well as the entire insurance space.

[Contessa Brewer]

While we're seeing new warnings coming in, new evacuate. They just evacuated a school in California. So that's a big deal. But where are growing profits potentially a problem? Just insurance take Travelers running all cylinders. A record year for profits earnings that left street expectations in the dust. Pricing power moving forward. And yet in its earnings release. And on its call, Travelers was careful to couch its profitability and its potential with sympathy for the fire victims in California. It said its strong balance sheet is crucial to being able to go out and respond to those customers in need. Now, it's not really clear how many customers in need Travelers has there because it has been working hard to limit its exposure in California, especially to wildfire risk, because for years the state insurance commissioner has denied requests to increase rates. We heard this from multiple insurers. Travelers says the impact to the first quarter earnings will be material because of those fires. Still, insurance companies in general are getting publicly criticized for canceling policies or not renewing ahead of the LA wildfires. That's a big PR problem, though it's bigger for some of Travelers competitors. Another is that across the nation, customers are just getting sticker shock when they open their insurance bills now. Higher premiums, of course, are great for investors. The stock was up 3% today on that phenomenal earnings report. But it's a fine line to walk between investor sentiment and consumer sentiment. And Travelers said on the call it is still working consistently to get the returns that it's, it's targeting. In property insurance, you can go through many quarters where their loss costs exceed what they're earning in premiums, and then they have a few great quarters in a row. And that's what the focus is.

[Guy Adami]

How do we think about this disaster since they're still gathering estimates and the impact overall in terms of their reinsurance? Because as I understand it, it's annually, so it's by calendar year, I think it is. Right, right. And so it doesn't, I mean, if they're going to eat up a certain amount for their deductible for the reinsurance this early on, it doesn't leave them much or it leaves them less for the remainder of the year. Another disaster.

[Contessa Brewer]

While they were trying to be very careful around the specifics of the wildfire, what they said was this first quarter will lead into, I think off the top of my head, it was something like $100 million for, you know, per event or something. Something along those lines. So it all feeds into what they need to spend before reinsurance kicks in. In other words, so they won't see reinsurance kicking in for the first quarter, but maybe later in the year once they hit that cap.

[Karen Feinerman]

Does it. How does, how did the California wildfires and all the losses we've seen across disasters seemingly all over the country over the last year and a half affect some of the other business lines that are doing so well. Part of the story today was Travelers is kicking it in business insurance. The margins there through the roof. A lot of personal lines. Do any of those divisions, do they pay the price for it? Are they, are they offsetting? I mean, help us understand the big picture.

[Contessa Brewer]

I mean even in, in the third quarter and in the fourth quarter, they were still improving in property insurance. Even though they're not getting consistently the targeted returns, they're still trying to make up for the quarters where they weren't getting the returns. But look, and I, the investor investment income is remarkable coming in and that doesn't even get. The analysts don't include that when they're looking at the revenues for the quarter. Like that sort of. Oh, that's icing on the cake. You did great in your investment income. I don't really get why.

[Tim Seymour]

But that's higher interest rates.

[Contessa Brewer]

Yeah, you know, like, and that's, that's, that's part of it. No, I mean why, like why it's.

[Guy Adami]

They don't put it in.

[Contessa Brewer]

That's beyond me. Two is that when you're looking at the commercial insurance, the rates are also going up there what they're getting, they said something like in their middle market in, in business insurance there were 80% of the policy saw rate hikes over the last year. Well, when you're getting that sort of consistent return, of course that's going to be good for investors and they're retaining those customers.

[Guy Adami]

And Tessa, thank you. Always good to see you. Contessa Brewer. Coming up, a tale of two health care stocks. Moderna JJ seeing big divergence today. The headlines behind the moves next. Welcome back to Fast Money. Moderna shares jumping again today. The beaten down vaccine maker still riding the tailwinds of last week's announcement that the HHS is providing $590 million to the company to develop a bird flu vaccine. There have been 67 confirmed human cases in the US and one death. Shares are now up three days in a row, but are still down nearly 80% from their 52 week highs. So what is the prognosis on this name? It was also mentioned, by the way, by Larry Ellison during that Stargate announcement yesterday. He was talking about how AI could help vaccines and specifically a cancer vaccine which Moderna does have in its pipeline.

[Dan Nathan]

So beaten down that if you want to just play it, just to play a little stock market here, it's not out of the, it's not ridiculous to sort of play that game because if these headlines continue with each passing day, you'll see that move. But I'll say this, the problems that were around Moderna for this entire move lower and that move has been significant I don't think have gone away by any stretch of imagination.

[Guy Adami]

Meantime, Johnson Johnson down despite an earnings beat. Sales of the company's cancer drugs driving profits up 19%. But revenue from its psoriasis treatment Stellara fell nearly 15% amid competition in international markets. Copies are expected in the US this year as well. JJ stock is down almost 2%. Tim, you had mentioned JJ at the beginning of the show.

[Karen Feinerman]

Yeah, real disappointing price action. Darzalex Oncology. So innovative medicines. I actually think this is a very exciting part of their business. A lot of this gets overshadowed by different parts of the cyclicality of their other businesses, including at times Medtech, which was a disappointment. And then the talc overhang.

[Guy Adami]

Up next, final trade, Final trade. Trade time.

[Karen Feinerman]

Tim Santander, other European banks, core positions in IBM.

[Tim Seymour]

Karen yes, Animal spirits alive but a good idea to buy some S and P out of the money puts.

[Guy Adami]

Daniel yeah, really?

[Carter Braxton Worth]

I'm any trouble or something? EA is down a lot I think by the 52 weekends.

[Dan Nathan]

Maybe just, just great Stevie Ray Vaughan story in the break, didn't we, Mel?

[Guy Adami]

Amazing. I can't even remember what it was.

[Karen Feinerman]

Sadder than his life story, you know.

[Dan Nathan]

I mean, you know when you say things like that, I mean, I have feelings too.

[Guy Adami]

Yes, we know. I know.

[Dan Nathan]

I've heard that before. Citibank. I think it continues the climb.

[Guy Adami]

Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do.

[Melissa Lee]

Not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC.

[Guy Adami]

Universal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement.

[Melissa Lee]

To make a particular investment or follow.

[Guy Adami]

A particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

[Melissa Lee]

To view the full Fast Money disclaimer.

[Guy Adami]

Please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Learn how to.

[Melissa Lee]

Use AI to be more successful with CNBC Make it's new online course.

[Guy Adami]

We'll give you examples back in can help you master AI tools?

[Melissa Lee]

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