← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Trump’s Fed Fire Fight… And Eli Lilly’s Weight Loss Win 8/26/25
00:43:19
President Trump looking to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook after allegations of mortgage fraud. The battle brewing at the central bank, and how she’s fighting back. Plus A major win in Eli Lilly’s weight loss ambitions. The pill trial results pushing that drug towards approval, and what it means for the obesity drug wars. Fast Money Disclaimer
Loading summary
Transcript143 lines
- [00:01]
A
Still jumping from tab to tab. To create trades. With Fidelity Trading Dashboard, you can easily access live data, advanced charting, portfolio insights and automated alerts, all on one screen. Our streamlined view lets you quickly create and execute your trading strategies to help keep up with the markets. Because better trading starts with finding what you need fast. Your Fidelity Trading Dashboard is ready now. For free, visit fidelity.com tradingdashboard. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIPC.
- [00:32]
B
Huge savings on Dell AI PCs with Intel Core Ultra processors are here and.
- [00:37]
C
They are newly designed to help you do more faster.
- [00:40]
B
They can generate code, edit images, multitask.
- [00:44]
C
Without lag draft emails, summarize documents, create.
- [00:48]
B
Live translations, and even extend your battery life.
- [00:51]
C
That's the power of Dell AI.
- [00:53]
A
With intel inside.
- [00:54]
B
Upgrade today by visiting Dell.comAI PC.
- [01:03]
A
Live for the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap. You're fired or not. President Trump wants to axe Fed Governor Lisa Cook after mortgage fraud allegations, but she says she's not going anywhere. So what now? One pill to rule them all. Eli Lilly's obesity pill trial results sent his shares that stock much higher. And also ahead, a regional bank breakout. Why parents of some college students have finally come to their senses. And the technical take on AI's energy demands. Hi, everybody. Good to see you again. I'm Brian Sullivan, in for Melissa Lee. Coming to you as always live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. On your desk tonight, Courtney Garcia, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fair Lead Strategies. Welcome, everybody. All right, we're going to get to the macro markets in a moment, but we're going to begin the night with the fight rocking the Fed. President Trump's decision to fire, or at least try to fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook. The president was asked about the potential firing during today's White House Cabinet meeting. She seems to have had an infraction and she can't have an infraction, especially that infraction, because she's in charge of, if you think about it, mortgages. And we need people that are 100% above board. And it doesn't seem like she was.
- [02:32]
C
Considering for the replacement to nominate for Lisa Cook.
- [02:35]
B
And what economic background or history are you?
- [02:37]
A
Well, we have some very good people for that position, and I think we have some very good people we're down to. I mean, I think I maybe in my own mind have somebody that I like the move comes after the White House said it found Cook engaged in alleged mortgage fraud by claiming two different homes, both as her primary residence, which is not allowed. Trump says she's fired. Cook has not explained the situation, but says she's not going anywhere. So now it may go to the courts. And Trump saying that he will abide by any court ruling. Obviously still a fast moving and often confusing situation because it is truly not clear if Lisa Cook has indeed left the Fed or will. Steve Liesman working a long day today, joining us again with what we know and a lot of what we don't.
- [03:27]
D
Yeah, thanks, Brian. The Federal Reserve releasing a statement this afternoon saying it will defer taking any action on the President's decision to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook until the courts decide. The statement said that Lisa Cook has indicated through her personal attorney that she will promptly challenge this action in court and seek a judicial decision that would confirm her ability to continue to fulfill her responsibilities as a Senate confirmed member of of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. As always, the Federal Reserve will abide by any court decision. Sources familiar with the situation telling CNBC late this afternoon that a lawsuit asking for relief from the courts could be as filed as soon as tomorrow. Courts in such situations, and there have been many under President Trump, have generally provided preliminary decisions very quickly. Earlier in the day, Cook's attorney issued a statement saying, quote, president Trump has no authority to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. His attempt to fire her based solely on a referral letter lacks any factual or legal basis. We'll be filing a lawsuit challenging this illegal action. Okay. As you just heard, the President said today at a Cabinet meeting that he would abide by the courts, but that he already had people in mind to replace Cook. The Wall Street Journal saying late this afternoon former World Bank President David Malpass is under consideration for one of the two now potential open seats. We don't know if there are two seats. If the President replaces Cook, you have a majority of the seven members of the Fed Board of Governors. Once Stephen Myron is confirmed for one of those two again potential seats, he could also use that board majority to exert pressure on the naming of Fed bank presidents, five of whom have a vote at any one time on a rotating basis. Given the President unprecedented influence over monetary policy and of course, raising questions about the Fed's independence in the making thereof. Brian?
- [05:16]
E
Steve, this is a quote, we will.
- [05:17]
F
Have the majority shortly on the Fed Board. I mean, I'm choosing this word that's chilling to me. What Are your thoughts on that?
- [05:28]
D
Well, I guess my first question is the extent to which it's chilling or not to the broader market. We are all puzzling over whether or not this matters. Does the market think, well, let me, let me start off. We know that it has not been necessarily a good trade to kind of expect the worst from the Trump administration when it comes to certain economic policies. The reciprocal tariff trade was not a good one. Maybe some belief that the president backs off a situation where he provides or where he takes some sort of, like, immediate control and really undermines the Fed's independence. I think that's on one seal. On the other side, what you have is a situation where right now the threat to the Fed's independence is essentially theoretical. What happens when it's not? When you have a majority of the board exert influence over the presidents and they start cutting rates by 50 or 100 basis points, when the inflation rate is running a percentage point above target, and then you get the market reaction, Maybe the concern would be more palpable or obvious when there are real actions taken or appear to be taken. Some people, as you say, are concerned. Some people said that this would be the end of the Fed's independence if we continue down this road. But it does not appear as if the market is trading that way right now.
- [06:46]
A
No, it is not. Courtney Garcia, politics aside, I mean, listen, Cook might stay, we don't know. She might voluntarily resign and then Trump gets replaced or a court will uphold that this is valid and she gets replaced. If she does indeed leave the board in some form and a dove comes in, does it change the way we should look at the Fed or interest rates?
- [07:08]
C
Well, I think that we should be looking at this either way because I think regardless of what happens, clearly Trump is putting a lot of pressure here. Powell is going to be out next year. Likely somebody is going to put in who is somebody of his choosing who is going to be ideally lowering interest rates as he wants. I think that's something the markets are trying to figure out. This is why you see the yield curve steepening, because it's widely expected the rates are going to start to come down here in the short term. And longer term, though, this is actually likely going to put more pressure on inflation. That's like the irony of all of this is why the longer end of the curve has been rising, because this could actually stimulate the economy and create additional inflation in the long run. So even though he's putting all this pressure, it doesn't mean inflation is done and actually Longer term could potentially be an issue.
- [07:47]
A
So that gap between the two year yield and the yield on the 30 year. Dan, the widest in multiple years.
- [07:55]
G
We know it's interesting about this. And again, this could just end up being, you know, a sideshow. It could be. End up just being a ridiculous situation. I mean, the president was found liable in a civil case in New York State for doing what? Inflating the value of his property to get a mortgage and insurance. I mean, so like, what are we doing here? You know, we're spending a lot of time talking about this. Why doesn't any of these reporters ask that question? You know what I mean? Like, it's just kind of funny to me. We're just letting this go by and there's no due process and we don't, we haven't been shown.
- [08:30]
A
There's been no charge. There's an allegation, but there's not even a charge. Like if there's a charge, he's charging it.
- [08:37]
G
He's the president.
- [08:38]
A
Well, he's saying it, but he's not charging it. There's nobody, there's no legal charge. I think that was the, I think that's the problem.
- [08:43]
G
It's a clown show. Okay. And again, I mean, I don't even. We're spending a lot of time talking about this.
- [08:49]
A
Does the move in the, in the, in the bond market change anything for Dan Nathan with regards to.
- [08:56]
G
Because it hasn't moved. I think what Courtney said is perfect. I mean, if it stokes inflation, you're going to see long yields go higher. And that's what's kind of happened. It's happening all over the world too. So there is this focus right now that inflation is not under control, that every government on the planet has massive debt piles. They want to see, you know, yields go down because they're sick of servicing this debt. We have a trillion dollars in debt to service and there's a, there's a push and a pull, right? We get the yields lower, we spend less on our debt service, but it is stimulative. And then you have this situation where who knows what could happen.
- [09:30]
H
But what I would add there is that when we do see a rate cutting cycle begin, it tends to be negative for the equity market. So as much as we are welcoming it for the economy, perhaps at maybe six out of the last eight times this has happened, the market saw either a major correction or a bear cycle. So to me, I don't know, maybe we should be careful what we wish.
- [09:52]
A
We did cut rates last Year guy dummy, September. A lot of people looking at that in a political way. What doesn't matter. The point is the 10 year bond yield.
- [10:02]
F
Yes.
- [10:02]
A
And mortgage rates were the same then as they are now and we got a cut. What are the odds we get a cut? Whether or not it has anything to do with Lisa Cook or not. We get a cut in September and the bond market says, you know what, worried about inflation send yields higher than 5050.
- [10:18]
F
Bank of England cut rates, I think on August 7th. Don't at me if I'm off by a day. Now they have inflation at 18 month high and bond yields have been going higher. So to your point, I think the chances are very good and Dan just mentioned it global. Just go across Europe and look what's going on. Look what's going on in Japan. I think there's a very good chance that again, if you go on this rate cutting cycle, to Katie's point, I mean historically it's been because things are breaking down. Maybe it's a little bit different this time. But I'll say this, be careful what you wish for because it doesn't mean the back end of the yield curve is going to move and the market is will challenge this newly constructed Fed at one, you know, one of these days in some way, shape or form. And typically they challenge it by selling off of the bond market and pushing yields higher.
- [11:02]
A
I don't believe is August 7th. It was August Sixpence none the Richer.
- [11:06]
F
You know what, you know who the lead singer of Sixpence none the Richer is?
- [11:09]
A
Not Rebecca Patterson.
- [11:10]
F
It's Lee Nash. Lee Bird Nash.
- [11:12]
A
Rebecca Patterson probably could have been the lead singer of that band. She is former Bridgewater Chief Investment strategist. She is now senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Rebecca, there's so many angles that this is fast money. We're trying to bring it back to the investor and what, if anything, to Dan's point, maybe this doesn't mean squat. What's your take?
- [11:37]
B
There's so many things that have to line up before the Fed actually loses its independence that, that the Federal Reserve has a majority of Trump appointees or Trump friendly policymakers who cut rates despite what inflation is. So to me it's not that surprising yet that the markets have only had a modest reaction. We have seen the yield curve steeper, we've seen the dollar lower, we've seen gold higher. So there is a reaction, but it's modest. I think part of that is because this is still a probability, not a eventuality. What I'm looking at, though, taking it back to fast money. You know, President Trump today in one of his many posts said once he gets a majority, so he's not being subtle, this is where he wants to go with the Fed, housing will fly, housing will take off. And, and I wish someone would sit down with the President and the administration say, look, if you want housing to fly, doing this is, and you all just talked about is going to push the long end yield higher, which is how mortgage rates are set. So that hurts the housing, which hurts construction, it hurts all those related jobs as well as homeowners. But what we really need to do is focus on supply. We just got housing data out within the last day or two showing that homes under Construction was down 12% over the last year. There are a couple bills in Congress right now that actually have bipartisan support that would make home construction easier, that would ease the permitting process if the President's serious about housing. And this whole, you know, thing going on here is really about the long end of the curve. There's a solution, and it's not the Fed, it's supply.
- [13:17]
A
Yeah. Well, that's interesting. What I was going to ask you, Rebecca, and you end it at the perfect place because I was going to ask you. There's a feeling everybody around this table is doing this a long time. I feel like we're addicted to the Fed as an economy. Right? Like we're like, well, if rates come down a little bit, it's going to save housing. I mean, we're not talking about COVID level mortgages. Again, even if mortgage rates come down a little bit, do you think it'll be that reactionary that suddenly the housing market, which has been stuck because nobody wants to sell because they've got a three and a half percent mortgage, is a five and a half percent mortgage, a five and a quarter percent mortgage going stick the housing market? I don't think so.
- [13:59]
B
No, I agree with you and you answered your own question a little bit there. There are so many homeowners today who have mortgages significantly lower than today's rates that they don't want to. Even if they want to move, they don't want to sell now because they'd have to downsize their home. The cost of the home would be so much higher today with the mortgage rates. So the housing market is somewhat paralyzed. So we do need to work on getting those longer term yields down. But to do that, we want to get inflation lower, we want to have better fiscal dynamics. And we're not Doing anything go in that direction right now. Again, if we move in this, in this world of going to a politicized Fed, you know, core PC, the Fed's preferred inflation measure is going to come out later this week, most likely at 2.9%. So we're almost a whole percentage point above the Fed's target. It's likely to go higher in the coming months. And if the Fed cuts with inflation that high, it's just going to stoke inflation expectations more. We're in a different world. Looking at history of what the Fed does and how the economy reacts in the stock market reacts is not very helpful right now. We're in a different inflation regime, so the dynamics and the reaction function in the markets is going to be different.
- [15:13]
A
Fair enough. Anybody around this, I'm going to say, I'm just going to lob it out there and see where this goes.
- [15:18]
F
A jump ball. You shouldn't do that.
- [15:20]
A
Jump. Here we go. You know what? It's Tuesday. I don't care. Okay? The Fed is independent, but let's be clear. The Fed chair is appointed by the President. Arthur Burns is pressed by Nixon to cut it. Who is it shoved William McChesney Martin up against the wall?
- [15:33]
F
Lyndon B. Johnson.
- [15:34]
A
Lyndon B. Johnson. This whole idea of an independent Fed, I just, I'm not 100% there.
- [15:40]
G
It's a different economy now than every single one of those periods. It's, it's a global economy. This is meant to be a beacon of the best capitalistic, you know, economy that's ever existed. We're meant to be an example. And so if you think about what's going on with a Fed governor, if they have a majority, then maybe they start going after Fed presidents. Then they have a, you know, Federal Reserve chairman. It's just, that's just an arm of the executive branch. And you think about our form of government. We're meant to have checks and balances, and there's certain, you know, parts of our government that are meant to be independent. So where is Jamie Dimon? Where are all these bankers who built these huge businesses right in and around this environment? They've leaned on the central bank as far as, like, the stability of it, right? To create some of the biggest businesses on the planet. And no one has anything to say about this.
- [16:29]
A
They're going to step in front of Trump? No fricking way.
- [16:32]
G
Okay, well, I mean, how about that? I mean, like, look what's going on in our city. We're likely to have federalized National Guard here, okay? Like, you know, Federal troops. It's all happening right in front of us in this city that is again, meant to be this beacon of capitalism. It doesn't feel that way now, does it?
- [16:49]
B
Sully, if I can jump in here. I spent some time looking at countries historically that lost institutional credibility, that lost functional governments. I did that in part thinking what if, what if it happened here? What you see historically in other countries where this has happened is that their equity markets underperform, relatively speaking. Their long term yields are higher, inflation is higher, their currencies weaken and they get less foreign direct investment. Longer term, their economies underperform others. Now the question is the US Is unique. We, we are, you know, the leading economy in the world. We are the biggest consumer market in the world. Our moment might not come as quickly or easily, but looking at other countries who have gone down this road tells us where we're headed if we're not careful. So I understand why the market's not reacting a lot today, but I do think we shouldn't ignore this at all. This is a big deal. What's going on.
- [17:51]
F
Currency moves are important. Rebecca brings it up. And although the dollar has bounced over the last three or four weeks, the bounce has been feeble at best. And there are a lot of people out there that will look at dollar euro and say we're headed to 125. Katie, I'm sure has done work on this. We'll look at dollar yen and say at some point, 1 30ish is in the cards. And you know, all those things might be supportive of equities, but I think it speaks to something more broad based going on. And I think whether they acknowledge it or not, I think there's a policy of a weaker dollar. And quite frankly, they're right to think that way because when you have $37 trillion in debt sitting on top of a $28 trillion economy, you're not going to grow your way out. You're basically going to inflate your dollar the way out. And I think that's what's going on.
- [18:34]
A
I am a little surprised that the stock, stock market did not take a hit or at least a bigger hit today. Just throwing it out there. Rebecca Patterson, appreciate your views. Thank you.
- [18:44]
B
Good to be with you.
- [18:46]
A
All right, on deck. Apple's ambitions, will they get it right or will they completely botch it? And speaking of AI, it needs a whole lot of energy. What Katie Stockton is seeing in the charts, the sectors that could fuel the data boom go anywhere. We're back in two minutes. You're watching Fast Money here on CNBC. We'll be right back.
- [19:15]
C
For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@myfulare.org Lifetime has movies.
- [19:34]
G
Movies as unpredictable as life itself. Have you told him?
- [19:37]
A
Have I told him what? That we love each other. This is insane.
- [19:40]
G
Lifetime has new movies every Saturday at 8. This is bigger than I thought. Movies that surprise you better than you imagined and keep you on the edge of your seat.
- [19:50]
D
Don't you go there.
- [19:51]
H
Too late for that.
- [19:52]
G
Lifetime has movies as unpredictable as life itself.
- [19:56]
A
That's a big deal.
- [19:57]
G
New movies every Saturday at 8. Only on Lifetime.
- [20:02]
A
CNBC Make It Online Course how to Build a Standout Personal Brand Three industry experts will show you how to create and grow your brand step by step.
- [20:10]
B
There's no time like now to start.
- [20:12]
A
Building your personal brand. Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand There's a lot of news out there besides the Fed. We have an earnings alert on MongoDB and do not admit adjust your television or your Internet. MongoDB shares are actually up 26% right now. Dan software company topping EPS and revenue estimates. They raising third quarter guidance. This was a name Dan, you were watching today, but wow.
- [20:43]
G
Yeah, we haven't seen this too much in enterprise software names and I'm sure Katie has some views. They've really been left out for the most part. A lot of these SAS names too. That's not what this company does though when you think about it's like a database management company. Go back and look at this chart for a second. There's two huge gaps in the last year or so from, you know, levels. These are obviously earnings and guidance levels. So when I see a quarter like this I say to myself it's very clear that the forward guidance has been lowered probably a couple of times. So it is kind of shocking to see a stock up 24% or something like this. It's probably beating lower expectations but still a 26% move.
- [21:20]
A
Katie Stockton looking at the charts you get that kind of a move. It's going to throw the charts all.
- [21:23]
H
Out of whack in a good way for for Mango Deep really it's been down trending since early 24 and this takes it well above a downtrend line. So we feel like we could see follow through on the back of this type of breakout. As much as something feels overextended when you See these gaps up, they do tend to generate additional momentum.
- [21:43]
A
Does a day just not about Mongo but just charting in general. Katie quickly does it. Does a day like a 26% gain or you know the line just goes parabolic. Does that change how you look at a chart?
- [21:53]
H
No. I mean it depends on the relationship to resistance or support. Right. If you see it clear an important level, well that is a breakout and you just want to make sure that it holds. Typically what we like to tell people, if you see a gap up, you want to see that gap hold over the coming days in order to preserve the breakout or break down. So it's somewhat reactive that you have to be in this kind of situation. But you know at this type of move can see follow through.
- [22:20]
A
So good be real quick.
- [22:23]
F
I mean Katie mentioned 2024. Go back to. Because I'm looking at it 2021 when the stock was north of 500 draw downtrend. If our crack staff can do it, we're probably with this move trading up to it and you have these major double bottoms right around 160 or so from the fall of 2022. So this move makes sense. You get through that trend line of that four year or so downtrend line and the party just starts here. I think in MDB party just starts.
- [22:50]
A
All right, staying with technology, everybody out there, mark your calendars. Apple announcing a launch event for September 9th likely to get an iPhone. 17 media and analysts today getting an invite from Apple with the tagline all dropping. Also earlier today the information reporting that Apple has internally discussed buying AI startup Mistral as well as the constant rumors that it may go after perplexity. Remember, Apple almost never buys companies. The last big deal it did was for the headphone company. Beats Apple Investors not feeling the beat this year. Shares are down about 8%. All right, coming up, letting go of luxury. Why your college kids housing situation may lose some of its luster but it may save you a lot of money. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. My name is Josh Brown. I'm a financial advisor, I'm a wealth manager and I'm a dad. Everyone needs to invest. Best stocks in the market is going to be fun for pro subscribers. We're going to take you behind the scenes and tell you the stories that are driving some of the most exciting names on your quote screen. We're going to show you exactly where the best stocks are and what's happening with them in real time. Join PRO for exclusive access to Josh Brown's best stocks in the market at CNBC.com Beststocks Hot tubs, outdoor TVs, podcasting studios, private gyms and I'm just describing my own kids, but maybe the madness is finally coming to an end. That is today's Property Play and Diana Olek joining us now with more. I know it sounds crazy, Diana, but these, trust me, these places are real.
- [24:41]
I
Oh, I know. I have a son who was in one. So let me just start, though, with the stats on the sector. Annual rent growth in student housing slowed to just 0.9% in July across 200 schools surveyed by Yardi, the average advertised asking rent fell to $905 per bed. That's down 1.4% from the 918 peak in March. Now the report says it's because operators are struggling to lease remaining inventory and rents have been cooling for a while. From last October through July, rent growth averaged 2.8%, which was less than half the 5.7% seen during the same period the year before and well below the 6.9% seen the year before that. Now I spoke with Robert Bronstein, CEO of Scion, one of the nation's largest owner operators of state student housing. They have roughly 95,000 beds across 83 schools. That's over $10 billion in assets under management, he said. What we're seeing is fall off at the top and the bottom. So those who were on the edge of affording student housing are dropping out and the luxury renters are also pulling back, he said. Students want zoom rooms for job interviews, not golf simulators and movie theaters. Now, a separate report from Walker and Dunlop noted while luxury amenities once defined the sector, the latest trends it is shift toward functionality, convenience and affordability. Now to learn more on this and other great plays in commercial real estate, Property Play get the Newsletter subscribe to it Property Play See that QR code there or cnbc.com propertyplay and Brian, it was a year ago this week that I was sitting on the edge of an infinity pool at the University of Georgia doing live shots on this stuff.
- [26:22]
A
University of Georgia we may know somebody whose kid goes to University of Georgia, but no names. Do any of these findings, by the way, mentioned the South? Do any of these findings vary by type of school and also where it's located? Like, not sure you're rocking the infinity fool infinity pool Bowdoin in Maine. You know what I mean?
- [26:41]
I
No, you're not. And especially you're not rocking it at the small private colleges like Bowdoin in Maine, really, where you're seeing the higher end stronger? It's in the Southern, the really big schools like the University of Georgia schools in Texas. And actually a lot of the development and a lot of the demand is coming from those larger state schools. That's what we're finding. And the smaller private college are really seeing the big drop in demand because they're not seeing the kind of enrollment activity that you're seeing in those Big ten, big Southern schools, Diana Olich knows.
- [27:12]
A
From which she speaks. I'm going to tell you what they're doing. They're tearing down these old buildings and they're building these bigger buildings with all these amenities. Courtney, is there an investment play here, whether it's on the apartment space or housing generally?
- [27:25]
C
Yeah. I mean, first of all, this is crazy. I had no idea that kids were living this kind of luxury in college.
- [27:28]
A
You have not when I was in college, no.
- [27:31]
C
It's amazing. But I do think a lot of this really is just like a pushback to inflation. Right. I mean, you are saying that people really are stretched right now. So even though generally speaking, the consumer doesn't have like an overly concerning amount of debt on their balance sheets, they're really are starting to push back on what they're seeing spending on. And I think this is a very clear indication of that. I think when you're looking at housing in general, which we talked about earlier, and the overall housing trend is rates are probably going to stay high, if not go higher in the longer end of the curve, which is going to just going to continue to put pressure on the housing market. So even think of some of these.
- [28:01]
A
Local rates are going to go higher.
- [28:03]
C
On the long end.
- [28:04]
H
Right.
- [28:04]
A
So all we're talking about is rate cuts, the Fed and all this other stuff. And yet you're here saying, sorry, homeowners, that's happened. Mortgage rates probably aren't going down.
- [28:12]
C
That's what happened last fall. Right. And I think that's the problem here and that's what people need to recognize is the fact that rates are likely aren't coming down, which means all those people who do own homes, especially even in these local markets, like you're renting out houses to some of the college students, nobody's selling these things because you have less than a 4% mortgage. So it doesn't open up any sort of availability.
- [28:30]
A
Yeah. Nathan, what was your housing situation at UPenn?
- [28:33]
G
It was a dingy place off campus. How's that? Smelled like stale beer.
- [28:38]
A
It did yeah, that's, there's, there's more smells coming up. Charting AI's energy needs. Why Katie Stockton sees maybe some opportunity in rare earth minerals and nuclear. Nuclear. We're back in two. All right. Welcome back to FAST money. Was a decent day for stocks and your money. All the major averages were higher. Not a lot of volume, not a lot of action. But still up the Dow 136 points. And S&P and Nasdaq both up about 410 of a percent. We do have some after hours action though. We just hit on Mongo DB. These aren't moving 26% but PVH is up 5%. Octa is up 7 and a half percent. Box. That's up 4 and a half percent. Beating on earnings, beating on revenues. BOX. Had some positive comments about guidance. But look at this through all this Echo Star, you know what they say. Guy Dami hold my beer. EchoStar stock up 77.0percent today because they're selling some spectrum licenses to AT&T for $23 billion in cash. And I did this for you, Guy Domi. Investors continue to dig. Thank you. The gold miners. Newmont Mining up another 2% today, hitting its best level of 22%. Quick comment on the gold miners because you've been loving them. You've been right long and strong on the miners for a long time.
- [30:08]
F
Katie's a technician. But this is a classic. It's they're breaking out to the upside and the market finally is giving recognition to a group of stocks that historically they've said no, we're not going to play in this game because commodities going to disappoint us. Now they realize the commodities actually working and these stocks are playing catch up. There's still a long way to go in my opinion.
- [30:29]
H
Yeah, I mean very good momentum behind the space and it's out of fall or it's not in falling with what is happening in gold which is very much sideways consolidation. So seen very strong momentum long term base breakouts, not just Newmont. Look at Barrick for another.
- [30:45]
A
All right. Well President Trump and his cabinet addressing the nation's soaring energy needs tied to massive AI data centers. As the cabinet meeting today, the president estimating it would take a doubling of the US Energy capacity to satisfy demand. That takes us to our key players in the nuclear space which all rose today. Some of those names are like Encore Energy, Uranium Energy, Constellation Energy which also now owns the well it's called Crane Energy center but it used to be known as Three Mile Island. Let's go off the charts with Katie, who's looking at a bullish trend in a related group. Katie?
- [31:22]
H
Well, that's right. Looking at the materials more broadly speaking, which of course includes those miners too. We've seen real signs of life this month, some outperformance that could be the start of something a little bit more meaningful. And this includes also the rare earth plays and uranium nuclear. All of the above have gained some momentum, gained momentum both in absolute and relative terms. So if you were to look at the XLB ETF, which is the materials ETF versus the S&P 500, you'll see the ratio seems to be trying to find a footing and that at least more of a relief rally seems to be in store. Beyond that, if we kind of narrow in on the uranium group, you'll see that uranium, the ETF UR and for one has cleared some key resistance on the chart. This follows an already well established intermediate term up move. You could even argue that it's an inverse head and shoulders formation. But through our cloud model, we love the cloud model as a gauge of resistance. So that breakout serves as a positive catalyst in a market that honestly doesn't have a whole lot of new positive catalysts. We still have good momentum, but nothing new to act upon. We can take it one step further to the rare earth etf, which is remx, and you'll see there a very decisive long term bullish reversal relative to that same cloud model. Very encouraging.
- [32:42]
A
Yeah, it's encouraging, by the way, that people are just talking about it at all. I've been talking about this for years. Traveled the world, been at mines in the California desert, guy dummy. And now finally we're getting a little investor attention on this group.
- [32:54]
H
Yeah, and it's well deserved, I agree. I mean we have seen rotation that's pretty meaningful this month from relatively overbought areas of the market technology for one, into relatively oversold segments. It'll be interesting to see if this carries over to energy more broadly. Looking at a few names today, they're creeping above their down trending 200 day moving averages. Keep an eye on the IH ETF for one. So we'll see if that move expands Constellation Energy.
- [33:23]
F
I know you know the company. I think Melius just came out a $462 price target. I think they're high on the street. I think they're right. You look at valuation, say it's stretched maybe, but this space is in play and I think the stock is trading at an all time high either today or the last couple of days. So cg, I think despite the move that it's had to the upside is still a name you want to because.
- [33:43]
A
If you're not selling your power to the grid, you can sell your power effectively to the highest bidder. Right.
- [33:49]
F
That's what they. Yeah, look.
- [33:50]
A
And that's, and that's what they're doing. And Joe Dominguez who runs Constellation Energy, Tom's River, NJ guy originally, that he knows this industry and he knows how to make money.
- [34:00]
F
You know, the Toms River, I think Little League baseball team years ago won.
- [34:04]
G
The Little League World Series.
- [34:05]
F
Won the Little League World Series. Little known fact, you're a large man to be in those mines though, you probably get a little claustrophobic is my sense.
- [34:12]
A
No, I enjoy confined spaces actually. Coming up, call it a weight loss win in Wyatt. One widely owned stock. There's the name. It's Cli Lilly. We'll talk about it after the break. All right. Welcome back. Let's talk regional banks because regional banks don't get a lot of love, but they should. They're breaking out the carry ETF surging up nearly 9% this month. Dan, you've been all with the banks.
- [34:46]
G
No, I've been looking at them. I mean the steepening yield curve is obviously helping out right here. But if you go to the bkx, that's the other one. I mean, mean, this thing looks like a monster right here. It's back at those prior all time highs. It's breaking out. But the carry is playing a little catch up, is trading at 6 month highs here. And again, I think the regionals got going today before the Mega cap did and that's probably saying something.
- [35:07]
A
All right, switching gears, Eli lilly surging almost 6%. It led the S&P 500 today. Their obesity pill cleared yet another late stage trial. Patients with type 2 diabetes and obesity losing an average 10.5% of their body weight after 72 weeks is on the highest dose. For more on what may come next, Citi Research managing director Jeff Beacham joining us now. Jeff, great to have you on the show. What did these results mean for Lilly?
- [35:36]
E
Awesome. Thanks for having me, Brian. Yes. So the results here are de risking from the standpoint of this is the third trial they're going to file based on these data. There have been 5,000 patients that have been treated more than that. Safety, tolerability looks good and the weight loss looks good. So it's about to be a new option for obesity and for diabetic patients. That I think is pretty compelling.
- [36:02]
A
The competition out there is fierce. There's a lot of different companies making these medications. A lot of people don't like needles. So how important is that pill version of this GLP1 weight loss drug?
- [36:16]
E
You know, it's super important, but it's not exactly the end all be all, I would say all the physician calls that we've done, endocrinologists, et cetera. There's still a place, I think, for injectables, but maybe not a dominating place. I'd probably call it 60, 40 before everything settles out. When this drug becomes available broadly, you know, and, you know, and the full data kind of, you know, all play out. But I do think that in oral administration, though, I think is going to be super important, maybe for those obese patients that are more overweight rather than obese, and maybe it's more, you know, temporary, not, you know, sort of chronic use.
- [36:55]
F
Jeff, Eli Lilly was a monster into last fall. Everybody was talking about it. We talked about it on a daily basis of this show. I think it was September of last year. The stock made an all time high since then, despite the fact that the broader market's done well. It has not participated despite days like today. I think valuation is finally catching up at close to 25 times next year's numbers, which even, even coming down is historically rich. How important is valuation here?
- [37:23]
E
It's a great question. I mean, valuation I think was a big problem previously. When we're talking about, you know, 50 multiple on the stock now though, you're totally right though, guy, it's 20 plus. But I think when you look at the next, you know, say 12 to 24 months, there really is no better growth story in health care, in my opinion. I think a lot of the pressure on the stock over the past, call it year or so has really been fears, you know, a, it's been over owned and B, been fears of policy changes. And as that kind of comes to a conclusion, I think this stock is going to be much more safer to own. And again, the best grower in the space.
- [38:01]
C
Hey, Jeff, it's Courtney here with this most recent trial. I'm curious if the side effects are anything any of a concern, if any, because I know with their most recent trial, I think there was something like 10% of participants who actually dropped out of the trial because of the side effects of this. Is that a concern? And why was it maybe more looked at the last trial than it is this one?
- [38:20]
E
Yeah, it's a good question, Courtney. I mean, so overall the 10% discontinuation rate, you know, from three separate trials and again, over 5,000 patients. I think that's pretty. That's pretty compelling from a commercial. From a market perspective, it's not really, you know, there haven't been any onerous safety tolerability events. You know, Guy mentioned all the competition, and I get that. But it's just hard. It's hard to show this kind of weight loss and then also this type of tolerability profile as well. So I think it raises the bar on Novo and other competitors. But there's nothing that, you know, in the real world that I would think that would be problematic here with Orphiglypron. There certainly hasn't been a lot that's been concerning on tirzepatide, meaning zepbound or mounjaro. In the real world, from a tolerability context.
- [39:07]
A
No. But also there is some data that suggests, Jeff, that, you know, over time people regain the weight, they might lose muscle mass. What are the risks here?
- [39:17]
E
Yeah, so I think the one thing to talk about is orphaglipron is an oral drug that could be used. You know, mostly it could be a consumer oriented drug. Right. So patients on for three months or six months lose a little bit of weight ahead of an event, a wedding, a beach trip, you name it. But it also could be a drug after a patient loses weight from the injectables as a maintenance therapy. And so that maintenance indication, we won't know about that until first quarter of next year when data mature. But that's the angle that I think would really drive a ton of sales and value if people are on this drug after they use an injectable drug, you know, for, you know, for years, just to maintain a lower weight. But you're absolutely right that when a patient goes off these drugs, they gain the weight back eventually. Maybe it's a year, maybe it's a year and a half, but it usually happens.
- [40:07]
A
And they lose muscle mass, right, Jeff?
- [40:10]
E
That's right.
- [40:10]
A
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's not the best combination, but there's a lot of hope for a lot of people on these drugs. Jeff Beacham, thank you very much. So, you know, Katie, I heard what you said in the break, we were talking about this, and you go, the chart doesn't look good.
- [40:25]
H
It is true. It's a downtrend and it's been in place for about a year now. Lower highs, lower lows, and. And now we have this gap that's about to be filled about $4 above. So the markets do have the propensity to fill these gaps. And with this gap now on the verge of being filled, it creates potential resistance for Lilly. We also have the down trending 200 day moving average as another hurdle for the chart. So it doesn't look great. Their relative performance has been poor and there are a lot of health care stocks that look a lot better to me.
- [40:58]
A
Like give us one. I mean this is a trading show.
- [41:01]
F
I thought she's a high. That's a hot tease, right?
- [41:05]
A
Deep tease, deep tease.
- [41:06]
H
You know, I would say the relatively oversold ones like Bristol Myers look a bit more interesting. So you have a support level that's been tested successfully and an oversold upturn there. That to me is more of a catalyst.
- [41:19]
A
You just see, you ask Guy, that's.
- [41:21]
F
Why, that's why you're Brian Sullivan.
- [41:23]
A
And they politely, I would nicely Guy.
- [41:26]
F
But I'm going to break, I mean next.
- [41:28]
A
All right, coming up, Nvidia grinding higher ahead of its earnings reports tomorrow. You might have heard about Nvidia. It's kind of an important company. We'll talk about it coming up. I'm having a vision, guy down in 23 and a half hours. We're going to be talking a lot about Nvidia. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think I could see the future. Their numbers are out tomorrow after the bell, quarterly results, guidance, discussion about China, etc. In video results due out after the Bell tomorrow, obviously. Katie Stockton, one of the biggest money making stocks the world, maybe the most important stock in the world, without question.
- [42:11]
H
And it's definitely been a positive contributor to the major indices in a big way. The uptrend still does have the support of positive momentum and yet it has fallen off over the past few weeks. This is not specific to Nvidia, but it is a widespread problem right now for the market. We're seeing consolidation phases ensue. It doesn't give us much guidance around the potential reaction to earnings tomorrow. I went back, I looked at past reports and it was almost 5050 in terms of gapping up or gapping down. I think the only real guarantee is that we will probably see volatility on the back of that. And if you look at levels 184 is a minor resistance. On the downside, watching the 1 the 50 day moving average and then secondarily if it gets real bad, the former resistance around 153 is the next level.
- [43:02]
C
And I think really when you're seeing the hyper sailors continuing to spend on AI, that's going to benefit Nvidia and I think that's what we want to hear tomorrow is are they continuing to spend? Is the demand still there? I do think the problem they run into is they just have a high bar. I think people have high expectations for this. And historically speaking, they probably need to beat by about 10% of the estimates in order to really see the stock move on that. So I don't really expect like a negative reaction, but you could see it not move even on positive results just because the bar is so high for them.
- [43:30]
G
I don't disagree with that. But I'd also say keep an eye on margins.
- [43:33]
F
Right?
- [43:33]
G
And keep an eye on what they say they're going to sell into China. We know that the White house negotiated this 15% vig on their sales, which are like to China, which are about 17%. Right. So if you're paying that, that's going to really hit your margins if you think about that. Right. You're coming out of that. Sales and margins are expected to decline this year at about 71%. That's down from 76 or something like that a year and a half ago. And next year they're meant to accelerate. So if you don't get a sense that they will be accelerating, I think that would be the thing to cause some investors to hit the pause button.
- [44:05]
A
All right, they got a beat and they got to beat big. All right, up next, final trades. Very quickly before final trades, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announcing they are engaged after two years of dating. And this is our stretch of the week. Signet is a name you got to watch. Just because, I don't know, people getting married. All right, let's talk. Congrats to the happy couple. I don't know how they're going to put food on the table. Final trades.
- [44:31]
C
Courting the Kre. Dan actually brought this up. This is one that will benefit from the short end of the curve. Coming down. I think it's something you want to.
- [44:37]
I
Take a look at.
- [44:38]
H
Katie Alibaba. So, Baba, we have stabilization above the 50 day moving average in a new MACD buy.
- [44:45]
A
Dan.
- [44:46]
G
Yeah, we knew all too well that was happening. And look what she made him do. See what I did there, Sully? A little bit BYD. Look at these Chinese EVs.
- [44:55]
A
They just took off. Guy.
- [44:58]
F
My level of excitement for that, you could just tell it's oozing. But if they went to Vegas, they could go to Wynn and get married there.
- [45:04]
D
Brian.
- [45:05]
A
There you go. Diamonds aren't forever. Thankfully, the show isn't bad. Money sucks. Right now.
- [45:12]
C
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer My name is Josh Brown.
- [45:53]
A
I'm a financial advisor, I'm a wealth manager, and I'm a dad. Everyone needs to invest Best Stocks in the Market is going to be fun for Pro subscribers. We're going to take you behind the scenes and tell you the stories that are driving some of the most exciting names on your quote screen. We're going to show you exactly where the best stocks are and what's happening with them in real time. Join Pro for exclusive access to Josh Brown's Best Stocks in the Market at CNBC.com BestStocks.