CNBC Fast Money Podcast Summary

Episode: Trump’s Fed Fire Fight… And Eli Lilly’s Weight Loss Win
Date: August 26, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee), with Courtney Garcia, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Katie Stockton
Special Guests: Steve Liesman (CNBC), Rebecca Patterson (Council on Foreign Relations), Diana Olek (CNBC), Jeff Beacham (Citi Research)

Episode Overview

This episode zeroes in on two headline-making market stories:

1. President Trump’s bombshell attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud—and what that means for the Fed's independence and the bond market.
2. Eli Lilly’s weight loss pill trial win, which sent shares soaring and reignited the discussion of the competitive obesity drug market.

Additional segments touch on student housing trends, energy stocks—including materials and uranium, regional banks rallying, and the implications ahead of Nvidia's earnings.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Attempt to Remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook (01:02–18:44)

• The Allegations: Trump seeks to fire Lisa Cook over claimed mortgage fraud—accusing her of listing two primary residences, which is prohibited. Cook disputes the allegations and refuses to step down, vowing a legal fight.
• Legal & Market Ramifications:
  • Steve Liesman reports the Fed will defer action until the courts decide, with Cook’s attorney arguing Trump lacks this authority ([03:26]).
  • The President is considering replacements, including ex-World Bank President David Malpass, signaling a shift in Fed composition—a move that could impact monetary policy and the Fed’s independence.
  • If Trump gains a board majority, critics warn he could pressure the Fed toward aggressive rate cuts, especially ahead of the 2026 election.

Quote – Steve Liesman (05:27):

“What happens when [the threat to Fed independence is] not theoretical...when real actions are taken? Some people say this would be the end of the Fed’s independence if we continue down this road. But it does not appear as if the market is trading that way right now.”

• Market Impact:
  • Modest reactions so far—yield curve steepening, dollar lower, gold higher.
  • The panel notes that if a dovish replacement is installed, it could drive rates down in the short-term, but stoke long-term inflation fears ([07:08] Courtney Garcia).

Quote – Courtney Garcia (07:08):

“Powell is going to be out next year. Likely somebody is going to put in…who is going to be ideally lowering interest rates as he wants. The markets are trying to figure out...it’s actually likely going to put more pressure on inflation.”

• Skepticism, Irony & Independence:
  • Dan Nathan highlights the irony of Trump targeting Cook for fraud while Trump himself has faced property valuation allegations ([07:55]).
  • Rebecca Patterson draws attention to housing policy—focusing on housing supply rather than just rates—and warns of long-term dangers if institutional credibility is lost ([13:16], [16:49]).

Quote – Rebecca Patterson (16:49):

“Looking at other countries who have gone down this road tells us where we’re headed if we’re not careful…equity markets underperform, long-term yields are higher, inflation is higher, currencies weaken, and they get less foreign direct investment.”

2. Student Housing Trends: The End of Luxury? (24:40–28:33)

• Luxury amenities in student housing are out; demand and rent growth are slipping ([24:40]).
• Diana Olek reports annual rent growth has slowed to just 0.9% with a drop in demand for both high-end and marginally affordable student rentals.
• Trend is shifting to affordability and functionality, driven by inflationary pressure; students want "zoom rooms" over golf simulators.

Quote – Diana Olek (24:40):

“From last October through July, rent growth averaged 2.8%, less than half the 5.7% seen…a year before. ...Students want zoom rooms for job interviews, not golf simulators and movie theaters.”

3. Markets, Materials, Energy & AI’s Power Hunger (30:07–33:59)

• The team notes a rotation from overbought technology into materials, rare earths, and uranium—industry groups gaining momentum on hopes for AI/data center power needs ([31:22]).
• Katie Stockton breaks down material sector charts, highlighting bullish breakouts in uranium (URA ETF), rare earths (REMX ETF), and energy plays like Constellation Energy ([31:22], [32:41]).
• Discussion on how rising AI usage could double US energy demand ([30:44]), helping miners and utilities.

Quote – Katie Stockton (32:41):

“You’ll see…a very decisive long term bullish reversal [in rare earths]. Very encouraging.”

4. Regional Bank Rally (34:46–35:07)

• Regional bank stocks (KRE ETF) surge nearly 9% month-to-date as the yield curve steepens.
• Dan Nathan notes regionals appear to be leading the big banks and this could be a sign of sector strength ([34:46]).

5. Eli Lilly’s Obesity Pill Win (35:07–41:18)

• Lilly shares jump as their oral obesity drug passes late-stage trials: patients with diabetes and obesity lost ~10.5% of body weight after 72 weeks at highest dose.
• Jeff Beacham (Citi Research) calls the result "de-risking," emphasizing the significance for both obesity and diabetic treatment ([35:36]).
• The pill option is important for patient preference, potentially shifting the market from injectables ([36:16]).
• Valuation remains rich, but Beacham is bullish on growth prospects, calling Lilly "the best grower in the space" ([37:23]).

Quote – Jeff Beacham (37:23):

“There really is no better growth story in health care, in my opinion...as that [policy change] cloud lifts, this stock is going to be much more safer to own.”

• Side Effects and Competition:

  • Discontinuation rates (~10%) were not seen as problematic; main risk remains weight regain and muscle loss if patients stop the drug ([38:19], [39:07]).

• Technical View:

  • Katie Stockton warns the LLY chart faces major resistance and the trend remains down; suggests Bristol-Myers looks more attractive technically ([40:24]).

6. Looking Ahead: Nvidia Earnings Preview (41:27–44:05)

• All eyes on Nvidia’s Q2 results—stock still trending up but at risk of high expectations not being met ([42:10]).
• Katie Stockton notes “consolidation” with potential for volatility; Courtney Garcia and Dan Nathan advise focusing on margins and China sales ([43:01]).

Quote – Katie Stockton (42:10):

“The uptrend still does have the support of positive momentum and yet it has fallen off over the past few weeks. ...I think the only real guarantee is that we will probably see volatility on the back of that.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Dan Nathan ([07:55]):

  “The president was found liable…for inflating the value of his properties to get a mortgage and insurance. I mean, so like, what are we doing here?”

• Guy Adami ([18:33]):

  “I’m a little surprised that the stock market did not take a hit or at least a bigger hit today.”

• Katie Stockton ([21:23], technical):

  “When you see a gap up, you want to see that gap hold over the coming days…a follow-through move.”

• Brian Sullivan ([13:16]):

  “I feel like we’re addicted to the Fed as an economy.”

• Diana Olek ([24:40]):

  “Students want zoom rooms for job interviews, not golf simulators and movie theaters.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 01:02 – Trump moves to fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook; market/political analysis
• 03:26 – Steve Liesman on Fed, courts, potential replacements
• 07:08 – Courtney Garcia on future of Fed rate policy and yield curve
• 13:16 – Rebecca Patterson on housing, inflation, and structural challenges
• 24:40 – Diana Olek: student housing luxury trends cool
• 30:07 – Gold miners, energy, and materials sector strength
• 31:22 – Katie Stockton: rare earths, uranium, and nuclear plays
• 34:46 – Regional bank rally overview
• 35:07 – Eli Lilly’s pill trial success; interview with Jeff Beacham
• 41:27 – Nvidia earnings preview and what to watch

Final Trades & Wrap-Up (44:30–45:27)

• Courtney Garcia: KRE ETF (regional banks, poised to benefit from short-end yield move)
• Katie Stockton: Alibaba (MACD buy, stabilization above 50-day MA)
• Dan Nathan: BYD (Chinese EVs gaining traction)
• Guy Adami: Wynn Resorts (Vegas travel tailwind; tongue-in-cheek marriage theme)
• Technical outlooks and market humor pepper the closing moments.

Episode Takeaways

• Fed Independence at Stake: While markets remain relatively calm, the panel warns the real risks of politicizing the Fed may take time to materialize but could have profound market and economic effects.
• Student Housing, Energy, and Materials All in Flux: Disruptions in traditional trends—luxury student living, commodity rally in materials linked to AI’s power demand.
• Healthcare Innovation, but Risks Remain: Eli Lilly leads in obesity drugs, but valuation and technicals may temper bullishness; broader healthcare landscape remains competitive.
• Markets Remain Volatile: Sectors rotate, and mega cap tech (Nvidia) remains the bellwether for risk sentiment.

In Their Words – Show Tone:
Direct, energetic, occasionally irreverent, and always focused on actionable insights for investors. The team blends market skepticism with deep expertise, punctuated by witty banter.