Trump’s Potential Flexibility On Tariffs… And OPEC’s Impact On Oil & Energy 3/21/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Summary: Trump’s Potential Flexibility On Tariffs… And OPEC’s Impact On Oil & Energy (March 21, 2025)

Introduction On the March 21, 2025, episode of CNBC's "Fast Money," host Brian Sullivan, standing in for Melissa Lee, delved into the intricate dynamics of the stock market influenced by President Trump's statements on tariff flexibility and the ongoing impact of OPEC on oil and energy sectors. The episode featured insightful discussions with a panel of top traders, including Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Carter Worth, and contributions from Megan Cassell and Phil LeBeau.

Trump’s Potential Flexibility on Tariffs The episode kicked off with an analysis of President Trump's recent remarks indicating a potential "flexibility on tariffs" (00:00). Megan Cassell from the White House provided context, explaining that while Trump has signaled openness to negotiating tariffs, no concrete exemptions have been announced ahead of the planned April 2 implementation (02:40).

Tim Seymour emphasized the significance of Trump's flexibility, stating, “There'll be flexibility, but basically it's reciprocal... if China is charging us 50%, or 30%, or 20%” (02:54). This reciprocal approach suggests that any tariff adjustments would depend on responses from other countries, potentially stabilizing market uncertainties surrounding international trade policies.

Steve Grasso added perspective on how tariffs have shifted from being the focus of economic discussions, previously dominated by Federal Reserve policies (04:24). He highlighted the balancing act between tax cuts and tariff implications, noting, “If we get an extension of the tax cuts, the average household gets $2,000” (05:05), suggesting that tariff flexibility could compensate for various economic headwinds.

Carter Worth further dissected the term "flexibility," interpreting it as a move towards bilateral negotiations rather than unilateral decisions, which could reduce uncertainty for CEOs grappling with long-term capital decisions (08:09).

Market Reactions to Tariff Flexibility The panel discussed the immediate positive reaction of the stock market following Trump's statement, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq breaking their month-long losing streaks (00:00). Phil LeBeau described the market's state as "flummoxed" due to the myriad of conflicting economic signals, including concerns over a potential recession and the fluctuating impact of tariffs (10:18).

Brian Sullivan posed a critical question about the market's readiness to react favorably if tariffs were relaxed, to which Steve Grasso responded optimistically: “No tariffs, market rips higher” (11:47). This sentiment underscores investor hope that easing tariffs could rejuvenate stock market performance.

Company Focus: Boeing, Nike, and Tesla Boeing’s Air Force Contract Win Boeing’s recent success in securing an Air Force contract to build next-generation fighter jets was a focal point. Tim Seymour highlighted this as a significant milestone: “This has been a cash burn story... this is a company that... gives you a sense that possibly a $50 billion contract is powerful” (12:26). Despite this win, Carter Worth expressed skepticism about the immediate positive impact on Boeing’s stock, citing ongoing cash burn issues and market uncertainties (14:22).

Phil LeBeau analyzed Boeing’s stock performance, noting a potential bull trap but advising caution as institutional investors remained bearish despite the contract win (25:28).

Nike’s Struggles Nike faced a downturn, with the stock dropping five and a half percent, its worst day in six months, and falling 17% since CEO Elliot Hill took over (30:29). Steve Grasso criticized Hill’s leadership, suggesting a lack of innovation and questioning his suitability for the role: “He didn’t want to get pulled out of retirement... this is not something that he should be doing” (31:05). Carter Worth echoed these sentiments, linking sales declines to reduced brand equity and increased costs (31:11).

Tesla’s Volatility and Elon Musk’s Rally Tesla remained a volatile player in the market, with its stock impacted by Elon Musk’s efforts to stabilize investor confidence. Despite taking a significant hit since December’s highs, Musk’s recent town hall aimed to reassure employees and investors about the company’s future, mentioning advancements like humanoid robots and autonomous technology (23:40). Phil LeBeau pointed out technical indicators suggesting a possible trend reversal, though institutional sentiment remained cautious (26:32).

OPEC’s Impact on Oil & Energy The discussion shifted to the oil market, where OPEC's strategies and new sanctions on Iran were closely examined. Megan Cassell detailed the escalating tensions and sanctions targeting Iranian and Chinese refineries, highlighting the delicate balance between supply and geopolitical risks (33:28). Lima Croft from RBC Capital Markets emphasized that despite these tensions, oil prices remained stable due to ample global supply and Saudi Arabia's reluctance to drastically increase production (34:27).

Phil LeBeau further analyzed Chevron’s performance, praising its recent upward movement above trend lines and positioning it as a favorable investment within the energy sector (37:11).

Interest Rates and the Bond Market Interest rates and their trajectory were another critical topic. Carter Worth discussed the stability of yields, noting that high yield bond spreads remained near historical lows (39:04). The panel debated the Federal Reserve's role in influencing borrowing costs, with Steve Grasso and Tim Seymour highlighting the complex interplay between economic growth and interest rate policies (40:21).

Consumer Earnings and Options Market Mike Cohen provided insights into the options market ahead of significant consumer earnings reports from companies like KB Home, Chewy, Dollar Tree, and Lululemon. He noted that options traders are anticipating substantial moves, particularly for Dollar Tree and Lululemon, implying a heightened sense of market volatility (43:01). Carter Worth explained strategies like calendar call spreads and risk reversals that traders might employ to navigate expected "volatility crushes" post-earnings (43:13).

Conclusion The episode concluded with a comprehensive overview of the intertwined factors influencing the stock market, from presidential tariff policies and geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices to company-specific performances and bond market dynamics. The panel underscored the importance of staying informed and adaptable in a market characterized by rapid changes and multifaceted economic indicators.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Seymour (02:54): “There'll be flexibility, but basically it's reciprocal... if China is charging us 50%, or 30%, or 20%.”
• Steve Grasso (05:05): “If we get an extension of the tax cuts, the average household gets $2,000.”
• Phil LeBeau (10:18): “The real word is flummox. Markets are flummoxed here.”
• Steve Grasso (11:47): “No tariffs, market rips higher.”
• Tim Seymour (12:26): “This has been a cash burn story... possibly a $50 billion contract is powerful.”
• Steve Grasso (31:05): “He didn’t want to get pulled out of retirement... this is not something that he should be doing.”
• Phil LeBeau (26:32): “We are breaching to the upside, that downtrend line. Chevron is a favorite here. We like it long.”
• Carter Worth (43:13): “Selling the shorter portion... making a bullish bet and playing for the Vol crush.”

Final Thoughts The March 21, 2025, episode of "Fast Money" provided a nuanced exploration of the current economic landscape, emphasizing the significant impact of political decisions on market performance and sector-specific developments. With expert analysis and strategic insights, the panel equipped investors with a deeper understanding of the forces shaping today's financial markets.

Transcript

[Brian Sullivan]

What does it mean to be rich? Maybe it's about measuring life and laugh lines and time. Not by how much you have, but by how often it stands still. At Edward Jones, we believe the key to being rich is knowing what counts. Our dedicated financial advisors provide one on one support meeting you where you are through all of life's changes. Because what matters most is living a life you love. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC what if your limited inventory had unlimited potential? What if your biggest risk was not taking one? What if you could make every move matter? Bank of America's business solutions can help bring your biggest what ifs within reach. Find out how our digital tools, cutting edge insights and trusted expertise can work for your business. What would you like the power to do? Visit bankofamerica.com bankingforbusiness to learn more. Bank of America is proud to be the official bank sponsor of FIFA World Cup 2026 live for the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money and here's what's happening right now. Stocks staging a comeback after the president uses the F word, flexibility around tariffs and the losing streak goes out with it. The S and P and Nasdaq both breaking month long losing runs. Call it an energized trade. Oil is up as the US Lays out more sanctions on Iran. But why isn't there more of a war premium built in? Plus Boeing's big win, Nike's big loss and Elon Musk telling Tesla employees to hold on. Hi everybody. I am Brian Sullivan in for Melissa tonight. Coming to you live as always from Studio B right here at the Nasdaq. And on your desk on this Friday, Mr. Tim Seymour, Bonnell and Ice. And got Steve Grasso and Carter Worth joining us as well, guys. Wel. So let's start with some signs that President Trump may be ready to deal around tariffs. He said today that there will be, quote, flexibility on tariffs. That's a pretty big comment. But Trump did stop short of making any firm exemptions ahead of the planned April 2 starting date. But that word flexibility, that one word helping your investments, stocks bouncing off their lows and the three major indexes also higher on the week. So let us start the show by talking about what is driving stocks right now that is largely tariffs. Megan Cassell is at the White House. More on all the signals, some of them certainly mixed coming from the President.

[Megan Cassell]

Brian? Absolutely. A little bit mixed here. But the president signaling some openness to negotiations with countries or with companies on those tariffs, especially when it comes to exemptions. Take a listen here to what the president said.

[Tim Seymour]

There'll be flexibility, but basically it's reciprocal. So that if China is charging us 50% or 30% or 20%, and I don't mean China, I mean anybody, any country.

[Megan Cassell]

So the president was also asked whether he'd be willing to strike a deal with China. And he said he would be talking with, with Chinese President Xi Jinping, potentially leaving the door open there to some negotiations as well. And Brian, it's not the first time this week that we've seen the president at least implicitly acknowledging some of the economic impact of these tariffs and of his policy plans. He posted on True Social after the Fed met on Wednesday, late Wednesday night, saying the Fed would be much better off cutting rates as tariffs were starting to transition or ease their way into the economy. And Brian, one last point on this. I was also talking with a White House official earlier this week about the total value of, of goods that would be hit with tariffs on April 2. This official told me it could be in the trillions of dollars, multiple trillions worth of dollars of goods that could be hit with these tariffs. But the official also told me that nothing is final until that plan is ultimately released in the coming days. So for all that talk about the president and this administration not paying attention to the market impact or the economic impact of all of these plans, we are starting to see some movement here and some reflection and some potential for things to remain in flux just 12 days out from that April 2 deadline. Brian.

[Brian Sullivan]

All right, Meg, Excel at the White House. Megan, thank you very much. Let's trade this, talk about it. Steve Grasso, how important are tariffs to these, to these markets right now?

[Steve Grasso]

Well, that's what they've taken the lead from. It used to be Powell, now it's tariffs that it was in video. So we've had, we've had all these different things slide side slices of the economy. But when you think about it, didn't we have some flexibility? Hasn't he shown some flexibility whether it's with Mexico, Canada, China, and that was the if in tariff, does he put them on? Doesn't he put them on? I thought that was the flexibility. That could have been the negotiating and now we're on the next level of flexibility. But to everyone, whether it's a CEO who says that there's lack of clarity to run their company, when is it clear when you're a CEO?

[Brian Sullivan]

Never.

[Steve Grasso]

Right. The downturn we have, we have had the financial crisis We've had the European crisis, we've had dozens of within the markets. But when you think about it, what they do know is their taxes aren't going up. What they do know is that their taxes are actually going down. Probably corporate rates going 21 to 20. And if you, if you manufacture, they're going to 15. But if you think about the tariffs, the average nut that's being put on the average household is twelve hundred dollars. If we, due to tariffs, we get an extension of the tax cuts, the average household. Household gets $2,000. Easy for me to say in tailwinds. So, so I know you want to get it. Just let me wrap it up. So if you have headwinds and you have tailwinds that compensate, I think we got to say we're making this too complicated.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, it sounds to me like you don't think that there's any more uncertainty in the eyes of CEOs. Is that what you're saying? No, because I mean, I said there's.

[Steve Grasso]

Always uncertainty to being a CEO. There's never a certain time to be a CEO.

[Tim Seymour]

Okay, so what is managing. But, but isn't the current environment more uncertain for CEOs than it was three months ago?

[Steve Grasso]

Well, three months ago you had EPA stringent regulations, you had regulations on banks. Your taxes potentially were going up. So you have to pick your poison. Whether or not you wanted those headwinds or do you want these. So we're in agreement. There always are going to be minefield.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I mean, I think about this week and I think about, you know, FedEx, which is one of the most cyclical companies out there and always been a barometer of the economy. And what we heard about yesterday is industrial uncertainty, the industrial economy. What we hear about company after company and we hear about CEOs lobbing the white House. Now, this is not me making a call on whether tariffs are effective or not. We're talking about uncertainty and we're talking about what that ultimately means for companies and their willingness to spend. We know where consumer confidence is. But, but if the White House is willing to be more flexible and if part of this to me is, is a broader message that everything we're saying is up for negotiation and that also we're looking to, you know, play. You know, they're not going to admit this, but basically, yes, we're going to draw a hard line, but we can soften it and that if the markets are priced in the worst. You've got a Treasury secretary pointing out that you, the markets need basically A detox period. You've got an administration that basically until the latter part of this week was saying deal with it. We're not that worried about the market.

[Brian Sullivan]

This a little bit off topic, but I got to give a shout out to my neighbor. My neighbor's Canadian. Here's why.

[Tim Seymour]

Is this name Astro?

[Brian Sullivan]

No, but they're ad Astro, by the way. But, but no, but there is no Canadian government right now and I think this goes to the president. They're going to have an election on April 28th. Mark Carney's in, but he could be out if he loses the election. I don't think they will, but they could. And there was, there's a, I bring this up mano, not because we're going to discuss Canadian politics, I hope on the show, but if tariffs and sort of this language against for the most part Canada is what's driving stocks, how much of it, you wonder, could just be Trump knowing there's really nobody in Ottawa, the Canadian capital to push back. And once there is maybe this calms down and thus the markets calm down.

[Carter Worth]

I see where you're going there. I'm going to use another F bomb fluidity and I think the tariff process has been somewhat.

[Tim Seymour]

What was the first F bomb?

[Steve Grasso]

Flexibility.

[Brian Sullivan]

Flexibility.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah.

[Carter Worth]

Re strikes her out. So we're going to keep it. So I do think this process has been fluid and I liken that to flexibility. I think flexibility comes across as a little bit less antagonizing. And to your point about Canada, I do think that the rhetoric has been received north of the border as being quite a bit antagonistic, essentially calling them the 51st state. So I think a willingness to go back to the table and work through. To me, flexibility indicates that there's going to be a bilateral type of agreement versus a situation that's being dictated and then we will unilaterally make a decision on whether or not we want to pull back, whether we want to scale from 25 to 50, etc. Etc. So I do want to make that slight distinction. But to Steve's point, I do think there has been uncertainty. I'm not sure using the term flexibility removes said uncertainty. Are you, are you getting ready to cut me off?

[Brian Sullivan]

No, no, no. But I, but I think that word did seem to change the markets.

[Carter Worth]

I don't know where I differ from Steve is that I do think that the tariff, unlike other uncertainty that you would face as a CEO, is really drilling down to long term capital decisions. And to FedEx's point, your input costs are going to affect not only your tomorrow or your next quarter but also your three and five year spending plans. And I think that is a slight nuance that makes the flexibility or fluidity, this whole tariff situation a bit more daunting.

[Brian Sullivan]

I think that was a queen strike song.

[Tim Seymour]

Silent, silent, silent lucidity.

[Brian Sullivan]

Carter, One of their best come in here because your job, looking at the charts to kind of strip out the words, Strip, strip out the emotion. The market obviously is not able to do that. But here's what's weird. The stocks that have been driving the gains and some of the losses, the Nvidia is the world, the Amazon's the world, the Microsoft's the world for the most part, maybe with the exception of Amazon's consumer business, I don't see any tariff impact on any of these names. But they're the ones that have been down four or five, six, seven weeks in a row. They're the ones driving the market, stripping out the emotion. What do you see in the charts?

[Phil LeBeau]

I mean look, drawdowns, sell offs, dips, declines, corrections, pullbacks, you choose the nomenclature are normal if you're in a steep and uncorrected uptrend. And that is the general circumstance of the market before this past five, six, seven week drawdown since February 19th. But I think the F word that really is applicable is flummoxed. I think investors are bewildered. I think the White House perhaps is bewildered, Congress is bewildered, allies are bewildered, perplexed. There's so many cross currents both at the economic level. Is there a recession? Isn't there, Is the consumer okay, what about employment? Is this tariff thing going to get worse? Is it going to be flexible? The real word is flummox. Markets are flummoxed here and I think participants as well.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I mean this is like the F is the word of the day. So you know, I think first of all I come up with why I'm embarrassed that we're 10 minutes into the show. We haven't welcomed Brian. So welcome to the show today.

[Steve Grasso]

Which one, Brian?

[Brian Sullivan]

It's always on its Friday.

[Tim Seymour]

It's fantastic to have you filling in.

[Brian Sullivan]

On a Friday for me.

[Tim Seymour]

Dabbler. Look, I think we get back to what the market has done and what the market exhibited and really since, since Wednesday or Friday. And I think you started with this, Brian. What's more important here? Is it, is it going to, is it tariff policy or is it the Fed? And, and historically it would have always been about the Fed, but I think now that we have the Fed out of the way, and if anything, I think we got a dovish pause and I think we got some easing by, you know, less tapering. And I think the dynamic here is the market is very unnerved by these dynamics.

[Brian Sullivan]

Look, quickly, before we move on, I want to, I'll just be more direct. Steve Grasso, if the president tomorrow comes out and says, you know what, I thought about it, I got what I wanted with fentanyl, another one or whatever.

[Steve Grasso]

No tariffs, market rips, rips, because I think you're right, the lead in, I could have my own opinion on what it is. We even heard Jerome Powell say that it was transitory. So another F word, fleeting. So that could, it could be temporary. Right. So if the market has decided that tariffs are an evil and if they are not put into place, I think reciprocal tariffs are different. Those can be palatable for everybody. But to your point, I think the market would rip higher.

[Brian Sullivan]

Okay. And by the way, I do want to remind our audience that there are tariffs on right now. Trump put them on the first one, Biden kept them going and increased them on China and increased them on China for certain things, solar panels. So tariffs are not non existent. All right. Also happening today, a nice bop for Boeing, the company winning an Air Force contract to build its next generation fighter jet. That helped the stock, but hurt rival Lockheed Martin. Lockheed Martin fell 6%. So, Tim Seymour, don't look now, but old beaten up Boeing has had a little bit of a stealth rally.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, no. Fabulous. And again, this is the B in band, my acronym. I think Boeing is A. Is a free cash flow story. Really at its core, if you're an investor and where the analyst community is watching, this has been a cash burn story. We don't need to get into the problems. And at times we've never been willing to acknowledge the defense business. But the reality is this is a company that not only today gives you some sense that possibly a $50 billion contract is powerful. And we understand there's pretty high margin in that, in that contract. But also the dynamic around where they seem to be in favor of this administration, that counts for a lot these days. So Boeing isn't necessarily the name you're going out to buy on this news. I think Boeing's news flow had really more or less bottomed. And as we've started to see the 730 Max, that's the dynamic that we really should be watching in terms of free cash flow.

[Carter Worth]

Yeah, I tend to agree. It really has been a cash burn story. And that isn't going to be Switched off overnight. I understand $20 billion and will likely be hundreds of billion dollars over the, over several decades here. But you know, when I look at how low Boeing has been, I feel like that 140, mid 140 level when they offer the secondary has kind of been the floor. But we fell from this level before. And if I were to, if we play this game, if I told you yesterday that they were going to win this contract, would you say the stock was going to be up just 5% or would you assume that it would have been up 10%, 15%?

[Brian Sullivan]

That's a little rich because fighter jets are not a huge part of Boeing's business. I want them to sell more 737 to knee jerk.

[Steve Grasso]

But to Bonoin's point, given the sentiment.

[Carter Worth]

Given the sentimen of the stock, given the stock performance, given the cash burn issues, given the lack of CEO clarity for so long, if I had told you that they were going to win this contract, I would think this would have led to a massive sentiment reversal. And I don't think we've seen that.

[Steve Grasso]

Could you imagine if Boeing screws up at all during this contract?

[Brian Sullivan]

This. Let's talk about it. What is the risk to both?

[Steve Grasso]

Yeah, so we got a little pop.

[Brian Sullivan]

To bottom and not a huge one. But I think what you're saying is any good news is very welcome right now.

[Carter Worth]

But I'm shocked that there isn't more follow through on that good news.

[Steve Grasso]

It's because of the negative headwinds.

[Brian Sullivan]

Negative headwinds.

[Steve Grasso]

It's holding it back. And also we thought Lockheed was going to get the contract originally. But to the original premise, if Boeing screws up or if they have some sort of inefficiencies, this could be a major headwind where a good thing turns into a negative thing for Boeing because we know we have someone in the White House that's not going to be hesitant or coy about calling them out on any type of inefficiencies that they might.

[Brian Sullivan]

Carter, do we have a chart on ba?

[Phil LeBeau]

I mean the temptation always when something is weak and in a downtrend to think, hey, this is the moment, it's cheap, let me try to buy some and cross my fingers. It's really too early to qualify as a bearish to bullish reversal buy from my seat. So I would hold off, I'd rather pay higher.

[Brian Sullivan]

There you go.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, I was just going to say, I mean Boeing is not cheap right here. And I hear you guys saying that this is actually, you know, the positive Endorsement by the government's really a negative waiting to happen. I mean think of all the companies that have, you know, government contracts over the last three months have meant a lot. I mean think of a Palantir, you tell me Palantir now is a target on their back because they've been getting government contracts. It's not about defense with Boeing and it's really about their commercial.

[Brian Sullivan]

Yeah, that's it. Want to sell more 7:37 all right, now let's talk more about tariffs and how they could have a very real world impact. Joe, the Warna advised President Trump during the first administration. He is now chief economist at smbc. Nico securities America. Not advising officially. I don't think the president this time, Joe, but certainly you've got the ear of the administration. Will tariffs, if we get them April 2, will they destroy the stock market?

[Joe Lavornia]

No, they're not going to destroy the stock market. This.

[Brian Sullivan]

Why are we asking like they will?

[Joe Lavornia]

Well, because I don't know, it's fear sells. Tariffs were in place in the first Trump administration. They had a very marginal impact in terms of actually didn't have any impact on inflation whatsoever. The Chinese bore most of the cost. They may have worked and had a more important impact had we not had the pandemic. This time around, tariffs will be used more aggressively. There certainly be some level of tariffs for revenues. Certainly they're used for a negotiation tool. But the other thing is they needed there also as a carrot to encourage capital to come back to the US and for investment and supply chains to decouple from China to go to other places. So tariffs are a necessary and important tool. Brian, if you want to re industrialize the economy because in addition to the tariffs, this is a multi pronged approach. You're going to have low and cheap and abundant energy costs. You're going to have corporate tax rate for producers from 21 to 15%. You're going to have much more friendly business regulation. So the tariff is all part of that. Reciprocal tariffs are good. It's a negotiating standpoint. We'll see what happens on April 2nd. My best guess, Joel of Warnia is going to say there's still probably going to be some uncertainty, but so what? We've got tremendous uncertainty on taxes. If you look at the uncertainty index, you're going to see that the uncertainty around taxes is incredibly high. That's one of the highest readings ever. And that relates back to the Tax Cuts and jobs act of 2017. Is it going to be passed? That to me is what's driving I.

[Brian Sullivan]

Think that was, I think that was Steve Grassman's point. But why doesn't the president then, and I know you can't speak for him, but just say what you said. Say we're going to, we're going to put a little tariff on. We're hoping to bring jobs back. You're going to pay a tiny bit more, but you're going to make up that money in tax.

[Joe Lavornia]

Well, he said that. Well, Secretary Besson has said it. President Trump has said it. By the way, President Trump on the campaign trail consistently talked about tariffs. We're just surprised that he's actually implementing them. I say we the collective narrative in the market. So. But the point is, is that you're not going to tell everybody everything you're going to do before you've done it. And the fact that investors are uncertain. Well, can you imagine the people who we're negotiating with? Do you think they know what's happening? They're going to be off balance and that's what you want. It's a negotiation. And my guess is it'll be very effective when all is said and done. But it's only eight weeks. I mean, come on. I mean, it's like everybody wants everything yesterday. Give it some time.

[Tim Seymour]

And Joe. So it's Tim and it's only been eight weeks. Let's, let's dive into the economy. The economy we have not attaching. This is so and so's economy because frankly, this is everybody's economy at this point. We've had a number of numbers. We had regional manufacturing surveys this week that weren't great. We've had different dynamics with some lumpy, but also some, I would just say some data series that are not necessarily telling you a whole lot in real terms. Where are we? Because there's, we've suddenly gone. All I hear about is a recession now, when in fact ago it's not. No one was going near that.

[Joe Lavornia]

Yeah, part of it is. Part of it is this Atlanta Fed served. Atlanta Fed GDP now, which it's widely followed. They've done some good forecast. This one I think they're totally off on because if you look at job growth, private job growth, you look at real income through January, it's up almost 3%. But the expenditure side of the data is softer. Some of the regional surveys you talked about are weak, but the national PMI, the manufacturing and services are pretty healthy. They're above 50. And this, we've got a huge gain in industrial production. So to me, the economy is healthy. I don't want the Fed to start easing rates in the short term. I think a lot of this inflation we have is, is partly due to the Fed being too easy for too long. And certainly those cuts last year, the first one, I didn't mind. I advocated for that first cut because the data at the time looked very weak. But the Fed wound up going 100 basis points down. That was much too much. And the 10 year note went up 100 basis points. So the market clearly said that was a mistake. But the economy right now to me looks pretty good.

[Brian Sullivan]

Yeah. And your Joe will let you go to your point. I tweeted it out today. We talked to a former Fed official last night. They left their foot in the gas even as people cranked in 2021 in the economy, making more money in car sales and home sales and they kept stimulating as if the entire economy was shut down. Huge policy mistake. Joe Lavorna, thank you very much, Brian.

[Joe Lavornia]

One last thing, Brian, quickly. Tim Seymour. David Lee Roth is coming out of retirement.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, look, we're talking about one of the greatest frontmen in rock and roll history. And I have this debate with my wife all the time. It's not Sammy Hagar, honey. So I'll see you, I'll see you at the show, Joe, as I have.

[Brian Sullivan]

In the show that be opening by Foreigner. It would fall into the df word theme by 1. I said very quickly, if the US consumer does slow down a little more, do market multiples have to come down?

[Carter Worth]

I would think so. I mean we're talking about two thirds of 70% of the GDP is driven by consumption. So clearly, I mean that's just too large of a factor to, to sweep under the rug. We're still at, what is it, 21 and a half times. I do think if you start to see earnings erosion, you start to see consumption dry up, you start to see CapEx pullback. It's only like, it's only logical that I would expect multiples to start to come down.

[Brian Sullivan]

Have they come down enough already?

[Carter Worth]

I don't think so.

[Brian Sullivan]

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[Megan Cassell]

Find your own path to building multiple income Streams.

[Brian Sullivan]

Register at CNBC. Make it comm/side hustle special offer ends April 1st. All right, welcome back to Fast Money. Tesla had a recently rare update today, but overall it's taken a pretty big hit since the record highs of December. Stocks down about 50% since those record highs. Still made you some money the last year too, but well off the highs. Elon Musk attempting to rally the troops at Tesla's headquarters last night, giving product updates and also urging employees to hang on to their stock. For more on sort of all of this, let's wrap it together. Bring in Phil LeBeau on a Tesla. Maybe the company's not in disarray, but certainly the narrative around it, Phil appears to be. Yeah, and that's what they tried to change Brian last night. Look, this was a well produced one hour town hall, but let's be clear here. There was no new new information in this. There was nothing that you woke up in the morning and you saw this and you said, oh my goodness, I've got to go buy Tesla. It was Elon Musk saying if you believe in me, you believe in us. And these are some of the messages that he delivered to the employees. Basically, the future is bright at Tesla. Said it time and again, humanoid robots. He believes the first ones will be delivered to Tesla employees in the second half of next year. Autonomous technology is coming. We're not going to go into all of his usual here's what I expect in five years. He has said this time and again. And then there is his message with regards to those who believe that Tesla is a stock that is tanking. There are times when there are rocky moments, like things are like a little bit of stormy weather.

[Carter Worth]

But.

[Brian Sullivan]

But what I'm here to tell you.

[Carter Worth]

Is that the future is incredibly bright and exciting.

[Brian Sullivan]

So what I'm saying is hang on to your stock. If you're hanging onto the stock, you got to go through this rough patch in terms of deliveries. This is what the company has delivered over the last 10 years. Last year they were at basically 1.79 million vehicles. A couple of things to keep in mind here. Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas, he has cut his delivery estimate down to 1.61. He was previously at 1.95 for 2025. Almost every analyst is bringing down their expectations for deliveries this year. We get the Q1 deliveries in less than two weeks, Brian, probably on April 2nd, April 1st, 2nd or 3rd. We will get those deliveries and then we'll have a better sense of just how rough the first quarter was. We shall see if that pep talk of sorts really works on a stock that could use it. Phil labeau, great stuff all week as always. We'll see you later. Have a good weekend. Thank you very much. Carter Wir. Tesla charts say we have one chart.

[Phil LeBeau]

But before we get to it, I think it's important to say that obviously as the CEO, you would want to try to say positive things. But to his credit, he in the past has also said he thinks the stock has been expensive and he has gone out and said that. So here he is saying quite the opposite, that it's a time to buy. But either way, let's look at a chart and try to figure it out together. So this is a fairly well defined circumstance. We've come down to this trend line three times, hit it to the penny, and we stopped here this week and rallied a little bit. I have a red arrow there. I think you have a classic bull trap. We made a slight new high post election only to drop some 55% and go right down to trend. Now the bull would argue that we're going to bounce. Fair enough. That means you got to put a green arrow in. Mine is red. I think we do break lower. I will point out. We put out a poll asking which arrow are you up or down from here? And institutional investors came back at 81% lower retail, 61% lower. So bias is lower, but at the institutional level, much less sanguine than at the retail level.

[Brian Sullivan]

Yeah, Carter, worth on the charts there. I just. How much of this, Steve, do you think is the political rumblings around Tesla versus just concerns about a consumer and a stock, a car stock that is effectively worth more than all the other car stocks in America combined? Maybe this is, you know, we're sitting here arguing about Musk and Tesla. We're not arguing about Jensen Wong and Nvidia. And the stocks are basically down the same in the last few weeks.

[Steve Grasso]

Yeah, I think it's 80% political. I think if you have an opinion or either you love them or you hate them. And so I think that's to love them.

[Brian Sullivan]

And now they hate them. That's.

[Steve Grasso]

Well, that, that's what's really happened. But when you have to look at this as a, as an equity. Are you buying it as an EV company? Because then your choices are really in and lucid. If you're buying it as a car company, then your choices are General Motors and Ford. So you have a bunch of different choices. To Carter's point, technically, I think it should bounce from here, but I do see how it could trade lower to 180 before it does bounce.

[Tim Seymour]

Company was on its knees before the politics. Let's not forget this. I mean, Tesla was 150 bucks before the elections. So there's fundamental reasons around the company's core businesses and also the fact that investors have put too much stock in fsd. And are we talking about robots? Is it really a story for Tesla here?

[Steve Grasso]

And he was. I don't want, I want to let you finish up. But he was campaigning, too, so I think that was him campaigning for Trump was probably poisoning a lot of people. You know, as well.

[Brian Sullivan]

Politics can't get out of the way for Tesla. All right. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Just buy it. Shares of Nike dropping to pandemic lows after its latest earnings report. But can CEO Elliot Hill launch a comeback for the sportswear giant? We'll debate. Plus, new sanctions against Iran, what it means for the oil trade and for energy supply here at home. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. Check out the all new CNBC sport podcast where sports business and investing collide from media deals to team valuations, private equity moves and more. Catch the biggest business stories on the CNBC sport podcast Cast listen on your favorite platform. All right, a big buzz kill on Nike today. Nike having its worst day in about six months today. The stock now at levels last seen five years ago. Nike down five and a half percent today. It's down 17% since Elliot Hill took over as CEO in October with a quote, win now strategy. It's not all his fault. Nike's down more than 60% since its 2021 record high. Today's move coming after Nike warned investors sales would fall by double digits. Steve. This quarter, it's like, it's like a Boeing. People just keep waiting for Nike to recover and it just keeps getting worse.

[Steve Grasso]

I think they lack innovation. I've been clear on my, on my views on this. I don't think Elliott even wanted the job. Quite frankly. He didn't want to get pulled out of retirement. This is not something that he should be doing. And it's sort of a little bit pessimistic on my part when you, when you look at that, there's no other person who can do this job. No more innovation to this job. And I think you just, there's a, there's a lot more than just the innovation story. There's the story of private companies that are taking share. Not a lot of people are still here. They have a great brand. Eventually it will recover or someone will figure out what to do with it. I'm not sure this is the management team that is. That, that.

[Carter Worth]

Yeah, I mean, they're going to have to come out and defend that brand equity, to your point. Which means it's likely more marketing spin.

[Brian Sullivan]

Right.

[Carter Worth]

And being that innovation has kind of been what's, what's lagged, it's likely more R and D spend as well. So that you see revenues decline, you see margins declining, and now all your cost inputs are kind of going up. I think that that explains why the stock traded off to me, which wasn't, which wasn't really a terrible quarter. With that said, I think my comment.

[Brian Sullivan]

Was on the valuation, though. Does it again get so cheap that people are like, I got to buy Nike?

[Tim Seymour]

Well, it's not cheap now. But, but I mean, can I, I can I just point out that all that great competition that, that people say are eating their lunch with all the innovation. On. On is down 30% in the last, in the last 50 days. Deckers is down 50%. So if you, you can't tell me this isn't also both cyclical. This isn't consumption, this isn't, these aren't trends within an industry that was so red hot that it was too hot. So you know, to me, we didn't expect those numbers to be good. They were awful. We didn't expect next quarter to be good. They're probably not going to be good. So you know, to me, I think the CEO is out there saying the right things. I mean he, he's, he's not only level setting in terms of expectations, which.

[Brian Sullivan]

Makes HOKA is the worst performing stock in the s and P500.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah. So why are we talking about that? Are they broken? I just, is on, on broken.

[Brian Sullivan]

I just.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, great minds. Fabulous. You know, we can say all the F words we can throw out there, but I mean, you know, I just, Nike has been an easy dog to kick because it hasn't grown in a while. And let's, let's not be, let's be clear whether it's innovation or whether it's competitive threat. There's no question Nike's not performing like it used to. Everybody knows that. But you can't tell me this is the time to go sell the stock. And in fact, I think this was probably a washout.

[Brian Sullivan]

Maybe the problem is not Nike, it's footwear. Coming up.

[Tim Seymour]

Oh my.

[Brian Sullivan]

Everything. Energy. A big decision from opec, new sanctions on Iran and a move that could shake up markets. Alima Croft will join us. All that next. All right, welcome back to Fast money. Let's talk about oil. Let's talk about geopolitical risk. Oil posting its best week since January. Trump sort of saber ratt more around Iran, but there doesn't appear to be a war premium built in. Let's bring in RBC Capital Markets global head of commodity strategy Lima Croft, obviously also a contributor. Halima, thanks for joining us. Listen, if I'm reading your notes right and if I'm listening to the President correctly, he's basically saying to Iran, do what we say or we're going to do something that's a big something.

[Megan Cassell]

That's a big something. And what we're hearing is that President Trump has delivered a message to the Iranians essentially saying like look, you have have a limited window to take our offer to restart nuclear talks and come up with some type of settlement or we may pursue military action. At the same time, we've had US strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen which President Trump really indicated was a warning to Iran. And then we have more sanctions. We had the sanctions this week targeting the independent Chinese refineries, a teapot refineries that take the bulk of Iranian crude. So we really look like we're ratcheting up to some type of end game scenario when it comes to this whole relationship with Iran.

[Brian Sullivan]

I guess the question is where it's 68. Some people might say well why isn't oil higher with sort of what you just laid out or I guess Lima is another way to look at it is there is plenty of oil in the world. The Saudis could put more on at any time and maybe it's because of these things that we are at 68 and on 58.

[Megan Cassell]

Well, I think there's also the fact Brian, that we are, you know, into a multi year conflict in the Middle east and we have not had any physical disruption of oil. We've actually had the Israelis and the Iranians trade missile fire higher and yet we've not had any action involving the Straits of Hormuz. So I think for a lot of oil market participants they really want to see something that materially impacts oil supply before they start pricing us in. So do pay close attention to what we're seeing in terms of these new Iran sanctions. We had sanctions last week as well on Russia. Are we actually going to see real enforcement though? Because I don't even think you needed the new sanctions to take, you know, potentially 750,000amillion barrels of Iranian oil off the market. It really comes down, down to what is the appetite to enforce those sanctions?

[Steve Grasso]

Halima, is this a sign that the world thinks or the US thinks that GDP is coming in? So we stated, as Brian said, a couple of reasons why oil should be higher. But if those things resolve, then oil should be back at 45 or 50. I know it sounds as if that is a world away from us right now, but is this some type of a bet based on a recession or GDP coming in?

[Megan Cassell]

I think part of the reason why oil has been struggling has been absolutely the concern about recession, about the impact of demand, of, of tariffs. Like what is this going to mean to Chinese demand, the all important center of demand. So I think you have these sort of push, pull in the oil market, you have sort of broader macro concerns or at the same time when the market starts to focus on potential potential supply risk. Again we talk about these sanctions. If President Trump were to enforce these sanctions on Iran, that could be a significant amount of Iranian oil off the market. And it becomes a real question about like what is the backfill, you know, how quickly could US production really ramp up? US production ramps up at a certain price point. It doesn't ramp up at $50. Also the issue about is Saudi Arabia looking to put more barrels on the market. They came out this week OPEC announcing a plan to essentially have the big producer producers provide compensation. So essentially pull back some of their production. So it doesn't look like right now there's a lot of appetite from OPEC to jump in with more barrels. So we are watching this story very closely.

[Brian Sullivan]

It is and bizarre. We'll let you go. Halima, for all the sturm and drang out there, oil prices effectively at the same place they were years ago. It's been actually remarkably stable. Halima, thank you very much. Carter Wirth again, stripping it all out. What are the oil charts say?

[Phil LeBeau]

Well, before we get to the charts, just what you said, remarkably stable. Here's stable adjusted for inflation. Oil in real terms is exactly where it was in 1985, 40 years ago. But Chevron's a favorite first of four charts. You see it here year to date up about 13% versus the XLE up 7, 8. We like it. Let's look at some Chevron charts on their own. The first you'll see here shows the COVID low. We were down at 50. We rallied to almost 180. Let's annotate that same chart and you'll see what is called a series of converging trend lines. And just today, this week we started to move above that downtrend line. In effect since the peak final chart, relative performance. That's where alpha lies. And this chart depicts Chevron's very poor relative performance to the spy to the market. But what's happening of late, we're moving above. We are breaching to the upside, that downtrend line. Chevron is a favorite here. We like it long.

[Brian Sullivan]

Wow. Chevron is a favorite. We love it. And going back the 1985. Yeah, the number one hit in 1985 this week. Do you know what it is?

[Tim Seymour]

Give me the band.

[Brian Sullivan]

Oreo Speedwagon.

[Tim Seymour]

I can't keep on loving you babe.

[Brian Sullivan]

Can'T fight this feeling.

[Tim Seymour]

Oh yeah.

[Brian Sullivan]

That's it. All right. Come on.

[Tim Seymour]

I know reo and I'm proud of that.

[Brian Sullivan]

There we go. And Foreigner was also red hot hot. Coming up, the names Bond, High yield Bond. What the technicals are telling the chartmaster about the state of the corporate debt market. All right, welcome back to Fast Money. Interest rates moving lower this week. Investors digesting the latest Fed decision. What it says about the state of the economy. A 10 year yield now more than 50 basis points or 1/2% to most of us below its Highs of last year. The question is where do we go from here? Let us bring back in the chartmaster Carter Worth Carter. Where or do borrowing costs go?

[Phil LeBeau]

Yeah, well go right to the charts. I remain in the lower yields camp but the truth is that yields are just Goldilocks. They're the. They stay between three and a half and four. Brief trip up to five, never closed above five. And we're sitting here in the middle. Middle. You see how I've annotated? I think lower but we shall see. The high yield market is something to keep an eye on of course. And I think we have a chart of the H Y g. That's the iShares High Yield Bond ETF. And the error I've drawn is sideways. This is what a pair of twos is. Is that poised to break out? It's not. It's well off its highs. Is it about to breach break trend? It's not this kind of sometimes and this is the case is belongs where it is.

[Brian Sullivan]

Bottom. Yeah.

[Carter Worth]

I mean if you look at high yield credit spreads, I mean historically we've ticked back up to about 317I believe but in the context of like the last 25 years, we're still at close to the lows. So I'm with Carter in terms of I don't see like a large deterioration in terms of credit. But what I will say is that you want to start looking at the rate of change. It's not as if you want to wait until, until things go from three and a half, three to three and a half to seven before you make a decision. It's like are you starting to see that tick up and the rate of change start to accelerate? That's the thing that I think you start to keep an eye.

[Brian Sullivan]

It's a president that wants lower rates. Steve and Elon Musk was talking about it today too. They want to drive interest rates down. I don't know if it'll work.

[Steve Grasso]

Yeah. And it used to be Trump against Powell.

[Brian Sullivan]

If you notice that they hate each other.

[Steve Grasso]

That thing has left the barn. They're not talking about that. He's Talking about the 10 year now and the Treasury Secretary Besson talking about the 10 year. So I haven't, I don't think they've mitigated Powell out of the equation. But as Lavornia, Joe Lavornia said when he started cutting rates, we went from 360 to 493. We're back down to 424 with Carter. I think you're going to see a three and a half.

[Brian Sullivan]

Three and a half I think you see but on the 10 year.

[Steve Grasso]

Yes way sub 4 and that doesn't.

[Tim Seymour]

Sound like good news. I know, I mean there's nothing good about three and a half.

[Brian Sullivan]

I think he's, I think he's talked.

[Steve Grasso]

Down growth for that purpose. So I think you're going to see.

[Brian Sullivan]

There'S a part of me that thinks that maybe they're jawbone in the economy down to drive down borrowing costs. I don't know.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, be careful what you wish for because again, lower borrowing costs. No, but you know again if you have no demand that pushes down, pushes down yields, you've got a bigger problem. So I don't, I don't think, I think they want lower yields. I think the reality is that, that we've probably normalized to a place where yields are supposed to be. If you look at a 20 year charter in the 10 year year, we're kind of where we should be. And if you think about the efficiencies that have come from technology and all those other things, I mean yields should be slightly lower but they don't have to be a lot higher than here.

[Brian Sullivan]

We'll see what happens. All right, coming up, a big week for the consumer. A lot of earnings coming out. Mike Cohen, what the options market is saying. All right, welcome back to Fast Money. It is a consumer abundance next week with a number of big name retailers reporting their results. You got KB Home, Chewy Dollar Tree, Lululemon. So basically dogs, houses and stretchy pants. For an early read on how options traders are setting up for these move, let us bring in the king of stretchy pants himself. That is Mike Co. That's not right. I'm just trying to give him a smile. Mike Coe, what are you seeing in the options market? Yeah, sometimes I wear stretchy pants for fun. So look, a worried consumer has got the options markets a little bit concerned as well right now. Dollar Tree implying a move of about 11 and a half percent and Lulu slight but still large at about 9%. So some big moves implied there. I am actually inclined to play Lulu from the long side on valuation here I was looking at a calendar call, spread risk reversal, selling the May 2285380 strangle and then buying the longer dated July 330 calls as a way to make a bullish bet and playing for the Vol crush that will inevitably follow the earnings. There we go. And now we know what you do for fun.

[Tim Seymour]

Volcker. I mean that sounds scary.

[Brian Sullivan]

I mean it is. We're looking at a chart Mike with some red and green Bonwin. What do you think of that setup? I'm trying to digest understand it to be perfectly honest.

[Carter Worth]

So we were talking about volume crush and I have a crush on volume crushes. So essentially what Mike is doing is selling the shorter, shorter portion of this. You'll see volume spike into earnings and that's going to come down. And now he's given himself optionality by going out the additional month which while his upside is capped on the short term he's essentially long that call over a longer duration period of time which the direction can take you and you'll make money from selling that short term volume collapse.

[Tim Seymour]

Want to make sure we're saying volume because I mean when I hear the term volume it sounds volume with a.

[Brian Sullivan]

V. Volatility we've been doing with the ball. Yeah. Not fall. We talk a lot about fwords today. Not fall.

[Tim Seymour]

Not fall.

[Brian Sullivan]

Not fall. And a big by the way big. I got to do it. A big shout out to all my friends in Blacksburg, Virginia at Sharkey.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah.

[Brian Sullivan]

Up next.

[Tim Seymour]

Sharky is a great spot there you.

[Brian Sullivan]

You know it's your final trades. There it is, the live show. Hope everybody shows up. Let's go around. I wasn't invited. Let's go around the horn. Carter Worth kick off a final trade.

[Phil LeBeau]

Trades gavron on the long side.

[Brian Sullivan]

Play it him.

[Tim Seymour]

Brian, Great to have you're invited to any event at Sharkey's or here on the desk. That's right. Actually I think this chart if you look at over the last three years you could say it's done nothing since that peak into 22. I think it's been inching higher energy costs. As we said, this is a good place to be investing in energy. Great divs. Double energy countercyclical.

[Joe Lavornia]

Go for it.

[Brian Sullivan]

Finally another.

[Carter Worth]

This has been incredibly fun. Thanks so much. Listen, I'm taking a look at Capital One Financial. I think this one tests 165 Capital One Financial.

[Brian Sullivan]

Steve Grassley.

[Steve Grasso]

Does anyone know you have an excellent voice? Is this a secret?

[Brian Sullivan]

You keep it?

[Tim Seymour]

Does anyone Sharkey's that know it?

[Brian Sullivan]

I'm loud.

[Steve Grasso]

This is unknown. He's got a great. This guy's got a great voice. My final trade, Enliven Therapeutics. I think it's washed out.

[Brian Sullivan]

Love it guys. Thank you all for making it easy on me everybody. Thank you. Thank you for watching Fast Money. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC NBCUniversal. Their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider rely on, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer My side hustle.

[Megan Cassell]

Brings in over six figures, about $10,000.

[Brian Sullivan]

A month, over $500,000 since its beginning. Find your hustle with CNBC. Make it's new online course how to Start a side Hustle Three industry experts break down proven paths to success.

[Megan Cassell]

There's a tremendous amount of opportunity out.

[Brian Sullivan]

There and help you choose the one that fits your life schedule and goals.

[Megan Cassell]

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