CNBC's Fast Money Podcast Summary
Episode: Trump’s Second First 100 Days… And Auto Tariff Reprieve
Release Date: April 29, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Lori Calvin
Introduction: Market Overview and Presidential Milestone
Melissa Lee opens the episode by highlighting President Trump's completion of his first 100 days in office during his second term—a critical milestone for any administration. This period has been marked by significant market turbulence, primarily influenced by sweeping tariff announcements.
Market Performance and Economic Indicators
Stock Indices and Treasury Yields
Tim Seymour reflects on the current state of the S&P 500, noting, “the S&P hanging in there like a champ” despite being down over 6% since Trump's inauguration ([02:56]). He expresses concern over the weakened U.S. dollar but sees the S&P's resilience as a positive sign amidst uncertainties.
Economic Metrics
- S&P 500: Down over 6% since inauguration.
- Nasdaq: Nearly 10% decline.
- Dow Jones: Shed over 3,000 points.
- Treasury Yields: Fallen by more than 40 basis points.
- Crude Oil: Trading near $60 a barrel.
- Dollar Index: Weakened to about three-year lows.
- Gold: Reached new records.
Notable Stock Movers
- Best Performers: Palantir, Philip Morris, Dollar General.
- Underperformers: Deckers, Tear Dyne, Albemarle.
Tariff Policies and Administration's Trade Portfolio
Confusion Over Trade Negotiations
Confusion within the White House regarding leadership in trade negotiations with China is a primary concern. Megan Casella reports conflicting statements between Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant about who is leading the trade talks ([10:26]).
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick: Suggested Besant is handling China negotiations.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Besant: Clarified that "President Trump's leading all the negotiations" ([11:07]).
Auto Tariff Reprieve
An executive order was signed to provide relief to automakers by “de-stacking” tariffs. This means:
- Engine Imports: No additional tariffs on components like steel and aluminum.
- Tariff Reduction: From 15% down to 10% of the MSRP over two years.
Phil LaBeau explains that this move aims to incentivize automakers to increase domestic production in the U.S. ([37:26]).
Impact on Automakers:
- High U.S. Production: Ford (80%), Honda (64.6%), Stellantis (55.1%), GM (54.1%).
- Market Reaction: Mixed responses with stocks like GM anticipating guidance updates.
Earnings Season Highlights
Supermicro’s Weak Preliminary Financials
Christina Parts Nevelis discusses Supermicro’s shares dropping 16% after reporting adjusted EPS of $0.29-$0.31, below the expected $0.54, and revenue projections of $4.5-$4.6 billion versus the anticipated $5.5 billion ([16:21]). Reasons include:
- Delayed Platform Decisions: Pushed sales into Q4.
- Inventory Buildup: Leading to lower gross margins.
Snap Inc.’s Performance
Julia Borsten reports Snap’s shares dropping 12.5% despite better-than-expected Q1 revenue, primarily due to the company withholding future guidance citing macroeconomic uncertainties ([25:27]).
- EBITDA: Profits more than doubled year-over-year.
- Advertising Revenue: 75% from direct response advertising.
Starbucks’ Earnings Miss
Guy Adami covers Starbucks falling short of expectations with an 8-cent EPS miss and a 1% decline in same-store sales, particularly in North America ([21:19]).
- CEO Brian Niccol: Remains optimistic about the turnaround plan despite current setbacks.
- Stock Reaction: Down over 4% after hours.
Visa’s Earnings Beat
Ryan Reynolds highlights Visa’s EPS of $2.76, surpassing the $2.68 estimate, and revenue of $9.59 billion, slightly above expectations ([27:30]). However, concerns linger over:
- Payment Volumes: Slowed growth in cross-border transactions.
- Share Repurchase: Announcement of a $30 billion buyback program.
Policy Uncertainty and Market Sentiments
Federal and Trump Puts
Melissa Lee probes whether the emergence of “Trump put” and “Fed put” policies influence market expectations for the next 100 days ([09:15]).
- Tim Seymour: Suggests that any "put" is more likely tied to bond markets rather than equities, expressing concerns over rising unemployment expectations ([09:40]).
- Dan Nathan: Argues that policy uncertainty, especially around trade and tariffs, may increase volatility rather than decrease it ([05:33], [12:59]).
Investor Confidence
- Lori Calvin: Emphasizes the need for deregulation and tax cuts as potential catalysts but remains skeptical about substantial positive news in the near term ([05:29], [07:51]).
- Dan Nathan: Highlights the organizational chaos within the administration as a factor contributing to market uncertainty ([12:59]).
Special Segments and Technical Analyses
Technical Perspective on Big Tech
Phil Carter Worth provides a technical analysis of major tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, labeling their current positions as a “pair of twos” in poker—a weak hand not worth significant investment ([41:17]).
- Apple: Dropped 35% from peak, currently in a neutral zone.
- Microsoft: Similar pattern with a 26% drop.
- Amazon: 33% decline, uncertain if recovery will continue.
- Meta: 35% drop, awaiting earnings to clarify direction.
Tim Seymour and Lori Calvin offer mixed opinions, with Seymour slightly more optimistic about Amazon, while Calvin expresses broader market concerns ([43:50], [44:06]).
Innovations and Market Moves
Hims and Hers’ Strategic Partnership
Ryan Reynolds discusses Hims and Hers’ deal with Novo Nordisk to offer the weight loss drug Wegovy directly through telehealth platforms at a reduced price of $499/month ([31:58]).
- Impact: Shares surged over 20%, pushing competition like Eli Lilly higher.
- Zach Reitano (RO CEO): Emphasizes increased accessibility and adherence due to lower pricing, aiming to eliminate middlemen and reduce costs for patients ([31:43], [33:53]).
Future of Health Care Coverage
- Price Reduction: Aims to make treatments more accessible, potentially increasing insurance coverage as prices become more affordable ([34:41]).
- Investor Implications: Calvin and Dan Nathan discuss the resilience and strategic positioning of Hims and Hers in the evolving healthcare landscape ([35:28], [33:53]).
Final Trades and Market Predictions
Sector Picks and Personal Insights
- Lori Calvasina: Recommends financial sector rebound plays.
- Calvin: Supports O'Reilly Auto Parts for its defensive nature and growth prospects.
- Tim Seymour: Dreams of classic cars, humorously noting his personal investment preferences.
Closing Remarks
Melissa Lee concludes with a reminder of upcoming segments and special events, including the Berkshire Hathaway meeting coverage and the 20th-anniversary special of Mad Money ([25:27], [40:57]).
Key Takeaways
- Tariff Uncertainty: Ongoing confusion within the administration regarding trade negotiations continues to unsettle markets.
- Earnings Volatility: Mixed earnings reports with significant misses from companies like Supermicro and Starbucks contrast with beats from Visa and Hims and Hers.
- Tech Sector Caution: Major tech stocks are in precarious technical positions, suggesting cautious investment approaches.
- Policy Impact: Potential deregulation and tax cuts could serve as market catalysts, but current policy chaos may hinder stability.
- Healthcare Innovation: Strategic partnerships in the telehealth space, exemplified by Hims and Hers, highlight evolving accessibility to essential treatments.
Notable Quotes:
- Tim Seymour (02:56): “The S and P hanging in there like a champ.”
- Dan Nathan (05:33): “If you think the next hundred days is going to be less volatile the way our government is run, there’s a lot of potential problems out there.”
- Ryan Reynolds (31:43): “Every single time we see a price drop, we see increased adherence which will lead to increased outcomes.”
- Phil Carter Worth (41:17): “A pair of twos is the least hand you can have without having five random cards.”
Conclusion
This episode of CNBC's Fast Money delves deep into the complexities of President Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs, and their profound impact on the markets. Through expert analysis and real-time earnings reports, the panel provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current financial landscape, highlighting both challenges and opportunities amidst policy uncertainties.