
President Trump notching his second First 100 days in office, and with stocks seeing their worst start to a term since Richard Nixon, will there be even more downside ahead, or can the climb back continue? And pumping the brakes on auto tariffs. How the White House is stopping a “stacked” tax, and what it means for the automakers scrambling to get ahead of the tariffs. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. 100 days in the books. President Trump notching his second first 100 days in office talk seeing their worst start of a term since Nixon. But can we expect more downside ahead or a continued comeback from all this tariff pain? We'll debate that. And pumping the brakes on auto tariffs. The White House adjusting its plans for levies. So called automakers don't see a stacked tax. But will it be enough to lighten the load as car companies rush to bring production stateside. Plus earnings season in full swing. Snap Starbucks Visa headline tonight's action, a weight loss deal packing on the pound for hims and hers. And tax pair of twos while the chartmaster isn't loving what he's seeing as tech giants get ready to report. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Damien Lori, Calvin, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC. Welcome Laurie. We start as President Trump completes the first hundred days of his second term, a milestone for any administration and for the markets, it has been a turbulent time. Major averages and initially shot higher after Trump took office with the S and P hitting a record in mid February, but then turned sharply lower. The announcement of sweeping tariffs sent the index to more than one year lows earlier this month. And though it's clawed back from the worst levels, the S And P is still down more than 6% since inauguration. The Nasdaq is down nearly 10% and the Dow has shed over 3,000 points. Meanwhile, benchmark treasury yields have fallen by more than 40 basis points. Crude oil is trading near $60 a barrel. The dollar has weakened to about three year lows and gold has hit a slew of new records. And take a look at some of the biggest stock movers. Palantir, Philip Morris, Dollar General, the best performing S and P stocks in the last 100 days. While Deckers Tear Dyne, Albemarle are lagging the pack. So as we get ready for the next 100 days and the onslaught of earnings season, what should we expect for the markets?
Tim Seymour
Guy, let's look in the rearview mirror. You just said it. I mean to me the most concerning thing is the weakness of the dollar. But back that out and look at an S&P 500 which is now 9% ish from its all time high. Maybe even less than that, which to me given this backdrop is a bit of a win. So the S and P hanging in there like a champ. I'm concerned about the US dollar, but tariffs, no tariffs. I think the question one has to ask is are earnings going to be as robust as the market hopes? And I don't think they are. And you've brought this up as well. And what's the right multiple, the environment that we find ourselves in? And I think the market's still a.
Melissa Lee
Little expensive, especially as a list of companies suspending guidance, not giving guidance. It gets longer by the day as earnings season chugs on. We had it from ups, we had it from G, no guidance. So how do you value the market?
Lori Calvasina
So it's a, it's a great question and I'll tell you, we went through all of our models the day after the Rose Garden tariffs and we basically baked in a stagflation scenario with inflation kind of in the mid threes and GDP of half a percent on the year. It basically tells me kind of 5351 is a reasonable place to end the year. So I feel like we're fairly valued based on that scenario. And we did hold within the 20% drawdown range, which is a growth scare, not a recession. If we get recession fears, we've got another big shoe to drop. But I think the market is kind of fairly valued where it is right now.
Calvin
I think the next hundred days have a lot less volatility. And I know that may seem obvious, maybe it doesn't seem obvious because I think There is still so much uncertainty. But and I said this yesterday and Rebecca Patterson pushed back a little bit, it's fair to have done. I said I think we're kind of through the worst of the detox phase. And what I meant by that is I actually think the economy will weaken. I think there is certainly there are headwinds around margins and multiples for the stock market and I actually think we're at some point going to go lower. But I do think that the news flow out of the administration in terms of that detox phase, that was a phase of policy. I think we're now going to get more into. I think as we talk about the next hundred days where you hear a lot more about deregulation, I think we're going to hear a lot more about tax cuts. I think we're going to hear a lot more about things that, that at least will elicit that animal spirits reference that people in the markets were saying. I still think we've got some significant issues for the economy and as a result of tariffs that are uncertain and damage that's been done. Again, I'm not trying to sugarcoat that, but I think we're talking about the next hundred days and I think this, this administration, on some level, I know it's crazy to say that has almost move like, I think, you know, they're talking about where they're cutting deals. We heard some of that today. Who's done a deal? Maybe the nameless country. But I do think you've got a case where there are things that will be coming. And I look at markets and I think as long as the VIX is in the mid-20s, if we're heading down to even low 20s, I think the pain trade remains higher.
Melissa Lee
More deals, more carve outs, more exemptions for US companies on the tariff front.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I don't buy any of that. I think the next hundred days has the potential to be far worse than the first hundred days.
Calvin
What's worse?
Dan Nathan
I mean, can I just, can I finish?
Calvin
Sorry, we're just saying, Steve, listen.
Dan Nathan
So, okay, the first hundred days they're dismantling all of this infrastructure which has existed, right. They're putting people in place that are there to dismantle the organizations in which they're there to cover. Right? So we've had this sort of chaos. We've had this kind of policy rollout. A lot of it actually hasn't been instituted. The uncertainty in around trade and tariffs is not going away. In the next 100 days, they can continue to carve stuff out. They can continue to kind of jawbone stuff. But companies are telling you something different. Okay? Now if you want to talk about valuation, I talk all this stuff. Listen, the glass half full is that the 10 year yield is at 4.17 the dollar, the Dixie is still at 99. Right. And so I don't really care about the Vix right here. I think you keep an eye on the dollar and on the 10 year yield. I think they're going to tell you what equities are going to do. But the other thing that's going to tell you again what equities are going to do is all this guidance that we're getting. It may be fine right now, like it might be fine. We keep hearing about this pull forward. So Q2 might be baked in the cake. It might be fine. What's the outlook for the back half of this year look like? And I just don't think we're going to get the sort of bilateral agreements. Look at what happened in Canada last night. I don't think Mark Carney is running down here to do a deal right now. I think he has a little bit of a mandate. If we can't do deals with our allies, then we're certainly not going to be able to do them with China. And I think that's what keeps things volatile over the next 100 days.
Lori Calvasina
I just want to interject a little bit on timing because I agree with the things that both of you have said, but my timing sense is a little bit different. What I'm hearing from companies in this reporting season is that there are enough buffers and there's enough management skill. Whether it's through pricing, pull forward of inventories. I think things are going to be okay in the short term. I think companies are going to be able to manage through. They're pulling a lot of levers. I have been telling people and kind of joking, I've got a vacation booked in August, but it's very cancelable. And I'm very worried about the September conference season because what we saw back in 2018 was during that first trade war, that was when companies really came out and said maybe we're not going to be able to manage through this as well as we thought we were. So right now we're getting a lot of good news. And I believe what companies are saying that they've been putting a lot of resources behind this and there's a lot of optimism that in, you know, 90 days or 60 years, whatever it is, now that we're going to get better news. But I'm worried about, you know, kind of what happens a little later on in the year.
Calvin
Yeah, I don't think we're going to get a lot of better news. Again, if I need to restate what I said and I don't think I do, but I think in terms of what we hear from the White House, in terms of where they are focused, I think they, you know, again, I think they're going to move on. It doesn't mean that there isn't damage done. And I do think companies have headwinds coming. I do think the consumer we're doing this with, with still record unemployment. We're doing this with people with jobs. We're doing this also coming out of what I still believe is for a lot of discretionary and even consumer companies that the pent up Covid demand is something that really, it was something that we hadn't ever seen. And I think we're only just getting through it. That's why I think also we saw even before tariffs were announced things like Deckers, things like on and things like, you know, I would even say Lulu and Nike, even though people want to say those are company specific. So I don't think the economy gets stronger into the fourth quarter. I don't think, I don't think the multiple the market's supposed to trade at get stronger into the fourth quarter. In fact, I think the multiple it falls down. But I think again in terms of the peak uncertainty around headlines that, you know, at times I don't even think we got the sense that this administration knew what the next headline was going to be. And I think that's part of where the market has been taking its cue in the short run. Again, we're up six straight days where have a case where the VIX is still in the mid-20s. I think we're in an earnings season where what we're all saying is there's been a good pull forward, nothing's falling out of bed yet. I don't think it's going to, I think it's companies, you know, we're going to talk about Snap, who pulled guidance. I mean that's, that's what we're hearing from companies.
Melissa Lee
Right. With all that said though, what we have learned over the past 100 days or even in the past eight days is that there's more of a Trump put right under the market. There's more of a Fed put under the market. So doesn't that shape how you view the next 100 days when before it was all about the detox period. And we're going to have to wait to see what happens to the data. So the Fed put was much lower. The Trump put was maybe nonexistent for some time.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, it's, I mean, I push back. And if, if there is a put in the form of the Trump administration, I think it comes in the form of what happened with the bond market. The bond market is what scared him a week and a half or so ago, not the the equity market to me is probably a nuisance for them. The bond market scared them. So I think there's a put in the form of the bond market, maybe to Dan's point. And yields are sort of going their way, but they're going their way, I think for the wrong reasons. And quick, this University of Michigan survey that came out today, 65% of people now expect the unemployment rate to go higher. I don't think I'm breaking any news, but when you have an economy that's predicated on people having jobs and feeling good about things, with an unemployment rate that I think is going to surprise people to the upside, that becomes problematic.
Melissa Lee
Meantime, Treasury Secretary Besant speaking to reporters a short time ago about tariffs. NBC's Megan Fousell has got the latest from the White House. Meghan.
Megan Casella
Hey, Melissa. Absolutely. You guys have been talking about confusion, and we have some more here. After several days of confusion about whether President Trump had been in touch with Chinese President Xi Jinping over tariffs, today we have further confusion between the Commerce and the treasury secretaries over who in the administration is actually leading the trade portfolio with China. So first we had on CNBC Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying that Treasury Secretary Scott Besant was actually the one leading the trade portfolio with Beijing. I asked Besant about that just a few minutes ago. Take a listening said on CNBC that you are in charge of China and he is in charge of the rest of the world on trade negotiations. Is that accurate? You leading the China negotiation?
Scott Besant
The President Trump's leading all the negotiations.
Calvin
So I'm not going to get ahead of the President.
Megan Casella
Melissa this just further underscores how much confusion there is about these China tariffs in particular, which are of course, the most impactful at this point for the markets for consumers and businesses as well. And it comes after Besant told reporters just earlier this morning here at the White House that while the US has 18 important trading relationship, he said 17 of those are moving forward with some momentum. And just one China, has to be put to the side. So pretty much confirming there that there is no ongoing negotiation with China about these tariffs at this point. Finally, Melissa, I also just want to flag on the tariff front that just in the last hour or so on Air Force One, we got news that President Trump did officially sign that executive order giving some relief, at least some relief on some of the tariffs to the automakers, making sure that they're not paying any additional tariffs beyond Simply just that 25% tariff on auto parts, cars and car parts, I should say, and also giving them a little bit of a rebate just for the next two years on some of that tariff impact. Melissa?
Melissa Lee
Megan, thank you. Megan Casella at the White House. We'll have much more on the auto tariffs, which are now the carve out that is that's official with Philippe a little bit later on in the show. But in terms of the confusion regarding who's in charge of those China talks, I mean, this not only underscores the confusion regarding the China tariffs themselves, but confusion over whether or not there is actually any progress being made if nobody knows who is actually in charge, if it's not that obvious who is leading the talks, are the talks actually happening?
Tim Seymour
Well, I push back and say I think it's pretty obvious that there's probably Secretary, Treasury Secretary Bessen in charge of one and Howard Ludnick's on the other side. But President Trump decides on everything. And I think that's what Treasury Secretary Bessen was trying to say. So confusion, I wouldn't go as far as say, confusion. Maybe, maybe the language isn't as tight as it should be, but I don't think there's confusion.
Dan Nathan
It comes down to confidence. Right. And I've been saying this every time Besant is on TV and opens his mouth, he does not instill confidence. And when you hear Lutnick and you hear Besant go back to and they say the president every 10 seconds in there, it doesn't like it is a single point of failure. If this one man who's going back and forth to play golf in Mar a Lago is supposed to be doing 60 bilateral deals and then be the point person on, on a, on a China deal, it just doesn't work. And I go back to if you think that the next hundred days is going to be less volatile the way our government is run, they basically tried to, you could say this is political. They've tried to dismantle almost every part. Just open the newspaper every day, the first 10 stories about what they are taking apart. And so if you think about what goes on from here on out with all the uncertainty we have in the economy that we have on defense that we have on health, I mean the list goes on and on. So there's a lot of potential problems out there. And you know, the economy might be the least of all of them.
Lori Calvasina
Well, look, I think what I hear from investors is they desperately want the conversation to change. Right. They want to get to the d wrig, they want to get to the tax. But we're stuck in this moment and we just can't get out of it. And I think that's what's really frustrating to a lot of investors. And I do actually talk to a lot of people that take comfort when Besson is on. And you know, I think the other issue frankly is that this is kind of a two steps forward, one step back kind of situation. So it's halting progress. I do feel like though we had with the April 8 pause, we had a major turning point. And so I think along with things like a I being at rock bottom University of Michigan consumer sentiment is as bad as the great financial crisis as 2022. There is room for the market if it can just get a little bit of good news to stabilize and keep going higher in here.
Calvin
Yeah, I guess we're get back to what the market has done off those intraday lows. I mean we've done almost 16% on the S and P off those intraday lows. It's extraordinary. And I think you get to a place where at some point I think we are going to face the reality. I just think that sentiment was so poor we already had hedge funds de risk. We talk about this. I mean I think if anything like CTAs are underway. This gets probably a little bit too into the inside baseball. But I do think if anything the chase will be to the upside here before the chase is to the downside.
Melissa Lee
All right. Coming up, more earnings action to bring you shares of Snap, Starbucks, Visa all in the move after reporting results. The details out of the quarters next and checking the scales in the weight loss space. Why the new partnership between hims and hers and Novo Nordisk has a telehealth company stock packing on the pounds. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two. Every day thousands of Comcast engineers and technologists create connectivity solutions that change the way we work, live and play. Like Kunle, a Comcast engineer who is focused on revolutionizing the in home wi fi experience today and for the next generation. Learn more at ComcastCorporation.com wi fi CNBC.
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Is your ticket to the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting. Warren Buffett meets with shareholders Becky Quick and Mike Santoli with full coverage. Watch live on air or on cnbc.com starts Saturday, 8:30am Eastern. CNBC.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. An earnings alert on Supermicro shares falling after the company issued weak preliminary financials. Christina Parts Neveless has got the details on the 16% decline. Christina?
Lori Calvasina
Yeah, they're definitely taking a hit this current quarter. So their latest preliminary numbers showing just 29 to 31 cents in adjusted EPS which falls short of the 54 cents analysts were banking on. Revenue wise they're looking at 4.5 billion to 4.6 billion. So that's nowhere near the 5.5 billion everyone was expecting. So this is quite the downgrade, I should say, from earlier projections for the quarter that wrapped up March 31st. They're still growing at 18% year over year. But that's a pretty big slowdown compared to the explosive 200% growth that they were celebrating just a year ago. According to Supermicro's release right now, which isn't an actually 10Q some customers dragged their feet on platform decisions and so that pushed sales into Q4. They're also dealing with a buildup of older inventory and facing some expedite fees which together cut their gross margins. For those that don't know, Supermicro designs and manufactures high performance servers and storage systems, many of which are optimized with Nvidia GPUs. And so that's why you're seeing shares of Nvidia down about 2% in after hours and then other server makers like Dell dropping last I checked, about 5%. Yeah, almost 5%. And HPE also down about 3% in sympathy.
Melissa Lee
Christina thank you. Christina Parts Nevelis so there's this relationship between the two and that's why you're seeing Nvidia. As Christina had mentioned, Nvidia provides GPUs, AI software. Supermicro does the infrastructure for a lot of the in video stuff including Blackwell.
Dan Nathan
So, so that 8% customer of Nvidia, I mean this is a pretty horrible report. I mean this is a pre announcement, I mean 20% miss on revenues and you know, K Parts just said about the growth and you know, it's still growing at 18%. Good luck with that. I mean it's going to be single digits by the end of this year. And I think you can extrapolate this out a bit. These are themes that we've been talking about. Core Weave is also down a bunch. That thing should be down Nvidia. There's just not a good headline out there. And we're going to go into some of their other biggest customers, reports Microsoft. You know, we heard from Goog last week, Metta and Amazon. I just can't imagine that there's going to be anything that sticks out saying that you want to buy Nvidia based on what they have to say. None of them are going to be raising CapEx guidance at all. And if anything, when you hear from some of their customers, Nvidia is like this. You could say to yourself, this is not like a 1/4 thing. It's likely to be 1, 2, maybe 3.
Tim Seymour
The optimists will say that people, because of tariffs are going to push everything out, as I think Christine just said, until the third or fourth or fourth quarter in this case. Pessimists will say this company's had issues now for quite some time and their proximity to a name like in video is, I'll use the word problematic. And it does put pressure on not only in video, but the rest of the space, which is just started to get off the ground a little bit. Again, this sort of derails it in the short term.
Calvin
I just don't know for different reasons. But I would say most notably the concerns around the financial filings and just some of the uncertainty there and that we're getting at least east. Okay, so we're hearing some, a few customers, core platform customers have delayed purchases, etc. But I don't know why you have to go there now. When I speak about the semis group more broadly, I think, remember we forget that semis are also uber cyclical. They are the uber cyclical and if we were talking about a micron or something, we'd really get into the cycle. But I think some of this still even matters for Nvidia and those folks that are in the middle of both data center and AI. And I think by the fourth quarter, I think we're going to have de risked a lot of this. So I mean, semis still at the end of the day are a place where valuations do matter and the cycles matter and it's not time, but it's going to be time and again. This, the demand side of this trade hasn't gone anywhere and I think there's all kinds of constraints right now and some demand, but not really.
Dan Nathan
Tim, if the demand side hasn't gone anywhere, it's likely to go somewhere. If we do go into a recessionary environment, if we go into an environment where a lot of these customers who've been buying these racks, who've been buying these servers, you know, delaying to Q4.
Melissa Lee
And then things get worse in the.
Calvin
Meantime, but they'll price that in before that.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, but, you know, we talk about this. Sorry, I just interrupted.
Calvin
Now you. What do we call spirited?
Melissa Lee
That's all spirited.
Dan Nathan
But in 2021, when the Nasdaq was down 30%, the S&P was down 25%, some of the names that had overshot to the upside, it's Meta, it's Nvidia, it's Tesla, and it's Netflix. They also left 70%, much of the other names sold off 50%. So my point is, so there was really nothing going on over there other than rates going higher. But we had this tremendous, you know, whatever you want to call it, just orgy of buying. Well, it's kind of what it was. And so they were taking some of the froth off the table. This is some real stuff going on. We're on the other side of the, you know, the recession that never came there. You know, if we go into recession, I mean, a lot of the demand is going to be like, go away.
Lori Calvasina
Well, I would just say nervousness is like this cockroach that keeps poking its head out in the middle of all this tariff stuff. And so I guess here it is again. But we had noticed about like a week or two ago, earnings revision, momentum on like the tech trade just collapsed massively versus rest of the market. So to your point, there's going to be a point at some time we come back to this. Really curious to see kind of how bad this is. Tomorrow.
Melissa Lee
Let's move on to Starbucks. Just taking a big leg lower after a top and bottom line miss. The call is underway. Kate Rooney's in San Francisco with the latest. Kate?
Guy Adami
Hi, Mel. So Starbucks did fall short of most expectations for the quarter. But CEO Brian Niccol right now on the earnings call with analysts talking about confidence. He's talking about momentum in the turnaround plan. Says things right now are on track. It was an 8 cent miss though on EPS for the quarter. Revenue was light as well. Same store sales down 1% while consensus was for a point 6% drop. That was partially offset by a 1% increase in average ticket sizes. North America was a weak spot. Same store sales down 1%. Domestically. Analysts were looking for a point to 4% drop. And then international comm store sales did see a modest uptick 2%. Nichols says in China. He just addressed China on The call says they're seeing indicators of progress there. Says the brand remains strong despite all of his tariff uncertainty. Supply chain he says is mostly local there and then also said that they remain quote committed to China for the long term. Brian Nicholl the CEO as I mentioned joined from Chipotle says quote we don't know what the state of the consumer will be in the months to come but says he's confident that we're building a resilient business markets that can succeed in any economic environment. Also says the financial results don't reflect the progress. Said EPS is not the best way to measure it but did point out what he called real momentum. Shares have clawed back some of the actually lower, significantly lower now they've kind of been jumping around after hours Mel but down more than 4% and they've been down about 8% for the year. Back to you.
Melissa Lee
All right Kate, Thanks Kate Rooney. Tim, what do you make of this quarter?
Calvin
Well Brian Nichols putting a brave face on a really difficult situation which is five straight quarters of same store sales declines. I mean that's awful and if you think about this is a company that's getting back to their core coffee business when you get to core coffee people are moving away from 450Venti's not me, not yet and I don't think I'm going to but there are plenty of people that are and I do think there are problems with the Starbucks brand globally. I do think there will be some pushback not, not necessarily a boycott of sorts but you know why if you're north of the border why wouldn't you go to Tim Hortons over Starbucks? And I do think there's going to be some pushback there but, but back to the core story it's been for two years now people worried about pricing pressures. They came out of COVID with you know, inflation and the ability to raise prices that they just don't have anymore and that worries me and I think it's struggle.
Tim Seymour
Year ago operating margins were 12.8% they came in at 8.2% lower than the street was looking for. North America was a disaster. So if he wants to say it's not about eps, well then look at margins because, because they are not good and we have effectively if we trade 80 bucks and we trading 80 now we've done, we've round tripped the entire Brian Nicol move from I guess August of last year when it basically rallied almost 50% on the back of that headline. Here we are back at 80 bucks.
Melissa Lee
Again after our session lows on Starbucks shares coming out, more after hours action to bring you Shares of Visa and Snap are on the move after reporting the details on the quarters next. Plus a slimmed down shake up by Hims and hers, a surge on a new deal with Novo Nordisk and how it'll impact the rest of the weight loss space ahead. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ markets at Times Square. Back right after this.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Snapchat is dropping the after hour session. The social media company reported better than expected Q1 revenue but said it will not give any guidance due to macro uncertainties. The conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. CNBC's Julia Borson has been listening in. Julia yeah, Melissa. Well, Snap's profits as measured by EBITDA showed a strong beat, more than doubled from a year ago. The fact that the company isn't giving guidance, which they just mentioned on the call, is weighing on the stock now down 12 and a half percent. Snap and CEO Evan Spiegel citing uncertainty about macroeconomic conditions, saying, quote, while our top line revenue has continued to grow, we have experienced headwinds to start the current quarter and we believe it is prudent to continue to balance our level of investment with realized revenue growth, saying as a result they're updating Snap's full year cost structure guidance, reflect current investment plans, lowering the full year adjusted operating expense guidance range by $50 million at the midpoint on the call. The company also just noted all the ways it has made progress towards building a stronger, more resilient business model, growing total advertisers by 60% year over year, while direct response advertising has now grown to 75% of total revenue revenue. But despite that long term optimism. You see shares are down dramatically. Insurers of other social stocks are also falling in after hours following snaps report Pinterest down nearly 3 1/2% and METTA as well of course matter reports after the bell tomorrow. Julia, thank you, Julia Borsten. I feel like every quarter it's a down or a plus 10% at least.
Dan Nathan
Dan yeah, and this one's tough because a couple of quarters ago when it was up 10%, I think part of the narrative was that they're going going harder into direct response advertising better margins in the site. They haven't really seen margins improve. Julia just mentioned that top line is growing about 10%. So this is not that compelling. Obviously they do have a my AI search box but it's powered by Open Air and you know, Google Gemini, so there's nothing proprietary there.
Melissa Lee
Visa meantime well off after hours highs after reporting a top and bottom line beat. Our Houston has the very latest numbers from the payments giant. Hey you.
Ryan Reynolds
Hey Melissa. So Visa's streak of beating analysts expectations is in tactics. In fact, if just barely. So the company which before today topped estimates in 19 of the past 20 quarters posted EPS of $2.76 a share better than the $2.68 estimate. Revenue of 9.59 billion, however, was just slightly above the $9.55 billion estimate. Visa, which runs the world's biggest credit and debit card network, said that total payments volumes grew 8% in the quarter and cross border volumes grew 13%. That was a slowdown from the previous linked quarter which saw increases of 9 and 16% respectively for payments across port volumes. Perhaps the most important number this quarter was 30 billion, which is the size of Visa's new share repurchase program. Back to you.
Melissa Lee
All right, Hugh, thank you. Hugh. Sun, maybe not a surprise across borders down versus prior quarter.
Calvin
Tim yeah, and I think again it's been kind of the best of times for Visa and this is a chart and this is a multiple that has defied gravity and has deserved it. And I think also some of the just concerns about whether Visa was keeping pace in the world of of frictionless payment. And there's no question, in fact they're the dominant player ultimately, again, cyclicality seems to be one of the themes of the show. If Snap's worried about advertisers, so should Visa. And I think that's something just to think about. I don't think you run hard from this one, but it's had a nice bounce.
Tim Seymour
6 month chart go back to February, made its all time high 366 and change. There is a downtrend line that this move to the upside in after hours hours brings us right to. So I think to Tim's point, you get a close above stock market346,347, then you're through this downtrend. Maybe the stock makes a push to that prior all time high.
Lori Calvasina
So I'll say what's interesting going through this reporting season. Generally the financial related companies have been saying the consumer is fine and they've been kind of getting a pass, you know, less concern about the macroecon. But we have just come off a week where it's been center, you know, front and center tariff of really companies coming in showing how they manage through. At some point I wonder how can you manage through just a soft macro. Right. I wonder if we're sort of hitting some sort of pivot point here.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, shedding pounds but packing on gains. Shares of hims and hers surging as the company inks a new deal in the weight loss drug space. What that means for the competition when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks rising throughout the session today. The Dow closing 300 points higher. The S&P up half a percent, both now in a six day winning streak. And the Nasdaq also climbing half a percent. Some more after hours action booking holdings lower despite topping EPS and revenue estimates. Mondelez revenues falling short of expectations but the company topped EPS estimates. First Solar dropping after an EPS miss and lowered guidance. And Caesar is posting revenues in line with estimates but disappointing earnings. Speaking of results, shares of Honeywell jumping on the back of earnings this morning. The company topping EPS and revenue estimates ups, ending the day lower after announcing plans to cut 20,000 jobs and declining update guidance for the year. And Pfizer also jumping after posting better than expected Q1 profits, announcing an expansion of its cost cutting plan. On the call, there were some intimations too that they might get into the weight loss space. So we did see some jumps in GPCR Structured Therapeutics as well as Viking Therapeutics. Tim, this is a stock where the P E is lower than the dividend yield.
Calvin
Yeah. And that's, you know, they've kind of grown into that one and that's not sure that that's what you want. I think it's a case also where that is a little deceiving. And again seemed like somehow some of the headlines today were impacts lovid, which I thought was yesterday's story. So I do think the expectation that they could get into the GLP Space is an exciting prospect for a company that has spent a lot of money. They don't have the 30 billion that they spent two years ago, but I think at this point it's hard to call it a value play. I think. I think you've de risked this story.
Melissa Lee
All right. Novo Nordisk expanding its direct to consumer push, bringing WeGovy directly to telehealth platforms. RO, HIMS and HERS Health and LifeMD. The partnership set to expand access for cash paying patients who can get the drug at a discounted price of $499 a month before subscription fees. HIM shares surging over 20% on this news, while Novo and arch rival Eli Lilly also finished firmly higher. For more on this move, RO CEO Zach Reitano, he joins us here on set. Zack, great to have you with us.
Ryan Reynolds
Thanks so much for having me.
Melissa Lee
Obviously, this happens at a time when compounding is going to be no more. And also Novo has been really cracking down on the compounders. So how do you view this in terms of the switchover from those using compounded drugs to this lower price?
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, Taking a quick step back. So RO has helped patients for the last four years now with obesity. And for the last three years we've helped patients get access to Agovy. Primarily the way that we've done that is through insurance coverage. And we see about half our patients covered. The other half are un or underinsured. And that's why we're so excited about today because previously that was $1,000 or $1,350 and now it's 499. So we think that that to your point, with the shortage ending, this is another really remarkable step by Novo to meet patients where they are. They are coming to digital health. Talk about all the reasons why at a much lower price point. Right. They took off $10,000 a year on the drug.
Melissa Lee
Right. In terms of how the economy meets your business, there are insurers out there who might be cutting coverage of GLP1s in general. And then there are people who may have less money or they're uncertain about the economy. They don't even want to pay $499. So how do you view that with your business and subscriptions?
Ryan Reynolds
We have a really interesting perspective here. So again, we do see about 50% of people covered. We've seen that stay relatively flat year over year, which was surprising. To your point, there were some pushback between 24 and 25. We saw a big step function up 23 to 24. But again, right now there's probably about 50 to 55 million people covered. And when they're covered, they're really, really covered. We do see on the cash based side going from 1,300 to 499 line. We've seen as the prices have decreased, you see increased adoption and you also see increased adherence. And we can see that both in the copay data and on the cash pay side. So as we talked about last time, it is a purchase that I think is quite resilient in this environment. Patients are prioritizing it over a vacation, over other expenses because of the role that it plays in their life. And every single time we see a price drop, we see increased adherence which will lead to increased outcomes. So we're really excited about about this step function.
Dan Nathan
Will that decrease in price actually lead to eventually more health care coverage or health insurance coverage?
Ryan Reynolds
You know, it's a great question. I think you'll see a little bit of both. Right. So the question is, how low does that price have to be before you see increased coverage? You are seeing pushback on the employer side given the price that we see. I think overall, taking a step back, the thing that we're most excited about is you are seeing this size shift in the way that new treatments are brought to patients. You're seeing the gap on list to net basically be eliminated. You're seeing the elimination of middlemen like a PBM or an insurance company and you're seeing a pharma company like Novo be able to reach far more patients. You know, three years ago, this drug, even three months ago this drug AM was $1,300 and three months later it's 499. When has that ever happened before in the healthcare industry and the farm industry. So it's very exciting in terms of income, increasing access, how big of an obstacle?
Tim Seymour
I mean, price has to be number one. But price continues to come down at a certain price point. How much does your business grow? I'm sure you've done that math.
Ryan Reynolds
Yeah, we do see both the we can actually use insurance as a really great example here. So we do see a step function increase in retention when patients only have to pay between $0 and 2550. That's why we've worked so hard to get patients covered on their insurance. Each time you increase that price, Right. When you break $100 and you break $200, $300, you do see a decrease in adoption and a decrease in adherence. That's why we've worked so hard so anyone can come to ROE and get their insurance covered or get their insurance check for free. And we'll handle everything related to that. So for us, it's about providing the widest array of options for patients at the most affordable prices for the most effective treatments for them.
Melissa Lee
So at this point, Lilly and Novo can actually go head to head. There's no shortage issue influencing what kind of prescription you get. They're both priced at the same price point. Now for the lower cost direct to consumer, what's your guess as to who comes out on top based on what you've heard from patients?
Ryan Reynolds
The very simple answer there is patience. And that is the.
Melissa Lee
It's true.
Ryan Reynolds
It's true. It's the best part about it. Our allegiance. And again, it sounds cheesy, but it's very, very simple. We're the only company that has these unique integrations with both. Right. And to us, that is just one additional way that we're fighting for patients. Right. So for us, our allegiance is to patients and providers and presenting those options to them and seeing who comes out on top.
Calvin
Right.
Ryan Reynolds
It's going to be patience when companies compete. And we're seeing that it's happening. And you mentioned another company that announced a similar announcement today. When you look at what other companies have announced their membership subscription, you know, the monthly price on other platforms, excluding the meds for a monthly is $400. So it's $400 plus $499 at Roe. That's not the case.
Zach Reitano
Right.
Ryan Reynolds
It's another way we're fighting for patients. First month is $0 if you use the checker or $45.
Melissa Lee
Come back when you have the numbers. I'm curious about the numbers. Zach, thank you. Thank you so much for having me. Coming up, a special case for cars. How the Trump administration is altering its tariff policy for the auto industry and the impact it could have for carmakers. We'll explain next. And you got to know when to hold your them and when to fold them. Chartmaster Carter Worth isn't anting up on tech earnings. While he says the charts are a pair of twos. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. A mixed day for auto stocks, even as the Trump administration confirms a plan that would prevent tariffs on the industry from from stacking on top of each other. Our Phil LaBeau's got the very latest. Hey, Phil.
Zach Reitano
Yeah. These offsets, which were first highlighted last night when it first was leaked out by the White House, well, they were confirmed today through an executive order from the White House. And here's what it basically comes down to in terms of the auto tariffs that are in place, they are de stacked. In other words, if you were bringing in, let's say, an engine from Germany, you're not also going to be paying a tariff on the steel and aluminum for that engine. That eliminates select multiple tariffs. Couple of exceptions in there with regard to China, but generally speaking, that's for all of the imported auto parts. Year one, 15% of the MSRP of the vehicle assembled built in the United States, you can offset any of the tariff costs on that vehicle. Drops down to 10% in year two. And the reason that the Trump administration is doing this, they say they want to give the automakers time to bring more production back here to the United States. Remember, while the United States builds more than half of the vehicles that are sold here in this country, there's a huge percentage that are coming in from Mexico, South Korea, Japan and Canada. The Trump administration believes by offering these incentives, if you will, it'll convince more automakers to either add more assembly lines or outright add more final assembly plants. Who would likely do that and who is more likely to say no, we've got a lot of production here. We should be okay. Take a look at the percentage of vehicles that are built in the United States, the ones that are sold by these automakers that are built in the United States. Ford, which has been touting this for some time, is almost at 80%. And then you've got Honda at 64.6%, Stellantis 55.1. And then you have GM at 54.1. This is all according to global data. So you can see for GM and Stellantis, they've got a lot of production that comes from outside the US Borders. And the idea from the Trump administration is to say you want to bring down your tariff costs, bring some of that production back here to the United States. As you take a look at shares of gm, remember that they had their earnings this morning for the first quarter. They delayed their conference call and their guidance until Thursday. And don't forget Thursday morning we will be talking with GM chair and CEO Mary Barra first on cnbc. Melissa, we'll get her take on what these new rules, these offsets, what it might mean for General Motors and do they give us new guidance now that they have a little more clarity?
Melissa Lee
It should be interesting, Phil, thank you. Phil LeBeau. Tim, what's your take?
Calvin
Well, I think it's slowly becoming a better backdrop for the autos. I'm not sure. Even in the best of backdrops. Know there's been times as a GM holder for a long time it's been frustrating. And again, we talk about a company's had record EBITDA, but possibly 75 to 80, you know, 75 hundred to $8,000. An auto at risk here. O'Reilly Auto Parts announced today. And again, you get into a part of the industry that I think is also possibly in some way actually benefiting, not only because it's very defensive, the used car market is increasing, but also there's a bit of a carve out from auto parts. So these numbers are extraordinary. This is the best idea for a lot of the houses on the street. Check it out.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, pair twos technicals chartmaster Carter Wirth isn't going all in ahead of this week's tech results. Find out why he is folding. The recent bounce in the space. That is next. And do not miss the special anniversary event as we celebrate two decades of mad money, we look back at the show's incredible run. That's tonight, 7:00pm Eastern Time right here on CNBC. More Fast Money in two.
Ryan Reynolds
You.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Big tech heavy hitters Metta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple reporting in the next two days. But despite the recent comebacks in these names, the chartmaster says there are pair twos. Carter worth of worth charting joins us now. Hey, Carter.
Scott Besant
Yeah. I mean, obviously for four of the six biggest companies in the world, 20% weight in the S and P. And it's really a jump ball here, what I would call a pair of twos. We can get right to it if you want. And look at each chart. But the circumstance is the same. Each stock has plunged, each stock has ricocheted and now is sort of sitting in no man's land. So the first chart, Apple. And you'll see that very clearly here, Apple drops some 35% from its peak. I mean, market only dropped 21% and it's ricocheted back exactly halfway. So get long.
Melissa Lee
Why?
Scott Besant
Because the regression can continue. Could get short here because it's likely to falter and run out of gas. Okay. It could. This is not a big moment. A pair of twos is not a big hand. It's not a royal flush or a three of a kind or a full house. Look at the next one, Microsoft. It's the same exact setup. So we have a Stock that drops 26% from its peak, has recovered a bit. But sitting here in no man's land, then there is no real big bet to be Made. And the truth is, in high end poker, when you have a low hand, it's right to fold. A pair of twos is the least hand you can have, except five random cards. Not even a pair of eights. Next chart. Look at Amazon. Now Amazon really is the same thing again. A strong stock that's broken trend drops 33% again versus the S&P21. And it's climbed back a bit. Does the ricochet continue?
Dan Nathan
Continue.
Scott Besant
Okay. Or does it falter here? Okay, but that's not the time to bet big. Finally, Metta, the implied move in Meta is the biggest at 7.5%. But if you look at the chart of Meta, you'll see the same general circumstance. A great winner that sold off a great deal. In this case 35% and is now sitting here. And many people would say, well, but I want to bet, I want to bet long. I think it's going to be good, but that's a personal bias or I think they're going to miss. Nobody knows the answer to that. But what we do know is there are times to bet big, to have high conviction. When the hand favors doing that. A pair of twos is the least hand you can have without having five random cards.
Melissa Lee
The more you know. I didn't know that in poker. I always learn something new from you, Carter. Thank you, Carter Braxton Wirth. Do you agree with the charts here, guy? Pair of twos.
Tim Seymour
Well, 2.7 off suit would be the most miserable hand. But up, push back a little bit and say I give Amazon more pair of sixes than a pair of twos. And I look at Amazon, trade it down to the August low. Held like a boss, as the kids say, bouncing from there. I think Amazon's a little better hand than pair of twos.
Lori Calvasina
I think it's a tough call. I think a lot of what he just said applies to the broader market, to be honest. And so left me maybe a little more depressed than I was at the beginning of the show. I was actually feeling pretty good, but. But no, I take the point that, that, you know, there are a lot of challenges here. Pick your spots.
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Lori.
Lori Calvasina
Since I can't buy the New York Giants, I'm going to go with the financial sectors. Read my favorite rebound play, Tim.
Calvin
I was kind of a gearhead in high school and go down to the auto parts store. I think it's actually a pretty, pretty sexy business. O'reilly.
Melissa Lee
What kind of car do you have?
Calvin
Me probably right.
Tim Seymour
My dream car is a 67 GTO.
Melissa Lee
What kind of car did you have?
Tim Seymour
I had a 78 Buick Electra, big one.
Dan Nathan
Dan I'm gonna go with Tim's drisk. Not a value play advisor.
Ryan Reynolds
Bye.
Tim Seymour
Well the you in my tube as you know Melissa is uber so I'm gonna stick with that.
Melissa Lee
Thank you for watching Fast Money Mad Money followed by its 20th anniversary special. That all starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer A pivotal jobs.
Dan Nathan
Report with the Fed decision right around the corner, are tariffs and policy uncertainty taking a toll on the job market? Employment numbers and analysis squawk box Friday 8:30 Eastern and streaming on CNBC Plus.
CNBC's Fast Money Podcast Summary
Episode: Trump’s Second First 100 Days… And Auto Tariff Reprieve
Release Date: April 29, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Lori Calvin
Melissa Lee opens the episode by highlighting President Trump's completion of his first 100 days in office during his second term—a critical milestone for any administration. This period has been marked by significant market turbulence, primarily influenced by sweeping tariff announcements.
Stock Indices and Treasury Yields
Tim Seymour reflects on the current state of the S&P 500, noting, “the S&P hanging in there like a champ” despite being down over 6% since Trump's inauguration ([02:56]). He expresses concern over the weakened U.S. dollar but sees the S&P's resilience as a positive sign amidst uncertainties.
Economic Metrics
Notable Stock Movers
Confusion Over Trade Negotiations
Confusion within the White House regarding leadership in trade negotiations with China is a primary concern. Megan Casella reports conflicting statements between Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant about who is leading the trade talks ([10:26]).
Auto Tariff Reprieve
An executive order was signed to provide relief to automakers by “de-stacking” tariffs. This means:
Phil LaBeau explains that this move aims to incentivize automakers to increase domestic production in the U.S. ([37:26]).
Impact on Automakers:
Supermicro’s Weak Preliminary Financials
Christina Parts Nevelis discusses Supermicro’s shares dropping 16% after reporting adjusted EPS of $0.29-$0.31, below the expected $0.54, and revenue projections of $4.5-$4.6 billion versus the anticipated $5.5 billion ([16:21]). Reasons include:
Snap Inc.’s Performance
Julia Borsten reports Snap’s shares dropping 12.5% despite better-than-expected Q1 revenue, primarily due to the company withholding future guidance citing macroeconomic uncertainties ([25:27]).
Starbucks’ Earnings Miss
Guy Adami covers Starbucks falling short of expectations with an 8-cent EPS miss and a 1% decline in same-store sales, particularly in North America ([21:19]).
Visa’s Earnings Beat
Ryan Reynolds highlights Visa’s EPS of $2.76, surpassing the $2.68 estimate, and revenue of $9.59 billion, slightly above expectations ([27:30]). However, concerns linger over:
Federal and Trump Puts
Melissa Lee probes whether the emergence of “Trump put” and “Fed put” policies influence market expectations for the next 100 days ([09:15]).
Investor Confidence
Technical Perspective on Big Tech
Phil Carter Worth provides a technical analysis of major tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, labeling their current positions as a “pair of twos” in poker—a weak hand not worth significant investment ([41:17]).
Tim Seymour and Lori Calvin offer mixed opinions, with Seymour slightly more optimistic about Amazon, while Calvin expresses broader market concerns ([43:50], [44:06]).
Hims and Hers’ Strategic Partnership
Ryan Reynolds discusses Hims and Hers’ deal with Novo Nordisk to offer the weight loss drug Wegovy directly through telehealth platforms at a reduced price of $499/month ([31:58]).
Future of Health Care Coverage
Sector Picks and Personal Insights
Closing Remarks
Melissa Lee concludes with a reminder of upcoming segments and special events, including the Berkshire Hathaway meeting coverage and the 20th-anniversary special of Mad Money ([25:27], [40:57]).
Notable Quotes:
Conclusion
This episode of CNBC's Fast Money delves deep into the complexities of President Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs, and their profound impact on the markets. Through expert analysis and real-time earnings reports, the panel provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current financial landscape, highlighting both challenges and opportunities amidst policy uncertainties.