← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Under The Surface Market Moves… And Novo Nordisk Plunges Description 7/29/25
00:43:33
A relatively tame day for stocks, but could the action under the surface be a warning sign for markets? The traders dig into what’s catching their attention in bonds, transports, and the commodities. Plus, The latest on U.S.-China trade discussions. Novo Nordisk’s nosedive after cutting guidance, and why Charles Schwab’s Head of Trading Services says retail investors aren’t forgetting the scars left by the Q2 volatility. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Guy Adami
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- [00:14]
Melissa Lee
To have some fun with our money.
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Guy Adami
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- [00:50]
Melissa Lee
Live in the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Trouble lurking. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ setting new intraday records before pulling back today. Reversals like these and those in a handful of other names. Signs for concern in the market and Inovo no go. Shares of the one time pharma darling hitting nearly three year lows on slash guidance and a new CEO. Is there any recourse for the embattled name and a Boeing bummer? Shares drop even after the company cut losses, a potential deal since shares of cyber are soaring in the state of the retail trader. How investors feel after a quarter of big volatility in the resurgence of the meme trade. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with what could look at first glance like a relatively quiet day for stocks. While the S and P and Nasdaq both set intraday records early in the session, all three major indices finished the day in shallow red territory. But some big moves elsewhere still caught our traders eyes today. Bond yields, for instance, dropping ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision. The dollar hit a one month high against the euro and crude oil surging nearly 4% on hopes of trade relief. Take a look at some individual stock moves. UPS dropping more than 10% after pulling guidance hit level not seen since the pandemic. And even red hot in video which hit a record just shy of $180 end of the day down nearly a percent. So do these big moves under the surface raise A warning sign. Even when the broader markets seem tame.
- [02:19]
Guy Adami
Guy, you have to pay attention to them without question. And obviously tomorrow we could come back, they all could be making new highs. But you wait for days like this to give you some indication that maybe something's turned. In terms of. In video we saw very similar move back in January. Stock made an all time high 153 and change closed lower on the day engulfing pattern by April is trading 90 bucks in terms of the S and P all time high today closed on the lows. You have to watch these things. I mean this is how it starts now. It all could be different tomorrow or Friday. But today is one of those days where in a few months from now we might come back and say remember that sort of odd Tuesday in July? Well that was the start of something.
- [02:58]
Melissa Lee
It did feel a little bit defensive in terms of the action in the sectors. Utilities, staples, you know, within retail. It was a down day for retail across the board. Except for Wal Mart. Wal Mart had a pretty decent gain. It felt like there was a little bit of safety seeking today.
- [03:11]
Guy Adami
Well, I think there's safety seeking but again it gets back to the uncertainty that we have in an environment. And we're reminded that CEOs will use this opportunity to remind everyone else that they have a lack of clarity and we'll talk about ups. And that was part of that story even though nobody expected this CEO to give a lot of guidance. And so the part that worries me are the market dynamics which are we have seen outsized moves in stocks that have missed, especially stocks that have warned a bit. And I think that is something to think about when you look at where there has been leadership. So far so good. Look, semiconductors were up small in the day and when you think about the move that they've had, I think we're fine. But it is a handful of names that touch a either consumer discretionary or spending as it relates to hospitality, airlines, travel. And I think we've seen a lot of weak spots. In fact I think we've seen a lot of companies let you know that they're not so sure about the strength of their business. That that's what on a quiet day in markets and boy we've all we've talked about is how important this, this week was. This is like the quietest day we have if you think about it. We've got and I won't rehash everything we've said is happening this week. So not cause for alarm but that dollar move is also Something to realize. Trades are getting unwound. There is a flight to quality there. Earnings are beating on an 80% rate of the 10 year average is 75%. And if you look at the season seasonally weak time period is August through October. So it's overvalued or priced to perfection. However you want to say that. Is it due for a little pullback? Yes. So I would take a little chips maybe off the table, but not permanently off the table. Yeah, I think it's pretty fascinating. We've talked about this a bit. You know, in late April, early May when a lot of these companies were guiding for Q2, it was about as bleak as it could be. Right. The uncertainty in around the trade war. So the fact that we have companies beating it. You just mentioned 80%. Right. But the stocks are sell. I mean just look at the screens today. You just mentioned ups. There's unh, there's Spotify. I'm probably oh Whirlpool. What was the other one? Your novo. I mean not your novo, my novo actually. I don't even know why the people are not buying the will govi anymore. It works people, I'm just telling you right now. But you know, look at what's going on. Look what the companies are saying. And this is kind of coming in after they gave you know, squishy guidance going back three months or so. So I have no idea how the stock market is within a percent of the all time highs. If I just look at the names and the reactions that we've seen over the last two weeks since financial earnings. It just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. So it maybe is this thing about passive, I don't know, is it picking up some of these other groups that we're not paying attention to? Because the stuff that I'm paying attention to does not trade particularly well.
- [05:43]
Melissa Lee
We've been hearing on the conference call to your point, to all you guys points, we are hearing the actual hit because of tariffs. So we're starting to get that sort of clarity as opposed to the squishy, the ranges that we were given before or that sort of the amorphous guidance. Procter and Gamble is going to start raising prices mid single digits and some of the products sold domestically. You mentioned Whirlpool. That was a big hit because of tariffs. Stanley Bach and Decker. That's a big hit because of earnings last week. There's gm, there's Raytheon. There are so many companies now saying what the hit is specifically because of tariffs. We're just starting to see that the.
- [06:13]
Guy Adami
Point you've made correctly is that it was never going to be the worst case scenario. It was going to be probably not be the best case. And somewhere in between, and I think we have probably found the in between. The problem, if there is one, is in that in between somebody is paying for it, whether it's the consumer, as you've said, or whether it's the company. So in some way, shape or form, the math suggest either margins are going to contract or the consumer is going to be further strapped. And I think that's what the market hasn't figured out yet.
- [06:41]
Melissa Lee
And ultimately it's always the, I mean it is ultimately the consumer. The companies pay for it, then they get tighter on what they spend, they get tighter with their workforce, they lay people off. It's a hit to the consumer. It's always a hit to the consumer at the end of the day.
- [06:55]
Guy Adami
Yeah. And it's a consumer that we really don't know how, how, how much foundation is under that spend. We know they have jobs. And we said yesterday, I still think that payroll number is maybe the biggest moment of the week. Not because we've seen any real erosion in the job market to this point, but we definitely have a case where I think the consumer is critical. I look at just the sector ETFs today and you have really weak performance in industrials and in transports and in parts of the, at least the market that were the exciting part of some of this breadth here. Financials after a great run or down a little bit. But if you want the markets to go higher, tomorrow is a more important day because that's where you have some of the, you know, whatever percent, whatever trillions of market cap are going to report, those are the names that have been leading the market. And how could you sell the market if there's going to be a China US Deal or if it's extended on the Goodwill extended another 30 days or another month. Right. Or another month and a half. We don't know what that is. But you can't sell the market ahead of a China deal.
- [07:56]
Melissa Lee
So you're long just anticipation of that deal.
- [07:58]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I think you always have to look at every, every, every sale has been wrong. Right. Since that April low. So if you want to play conservative and take some chips off the table, you could probably do that. But you also have to think you're going to miss some upside if that China deal gets inked. You know, it's funny, just on a premium standpoint, we talk about the vix, we talked about the curve yesterday, but you're looking at a vix that's like 15 and a half with the S and P. You got a lot of single stock movement. And you know, you know, remember the options action show we did for a long time Friday?
- [08:27]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [08:27]
Guy Adami
Fridays, many years I've been trying to like, you know, buy some puts here and there. It's a hard way to kind of trade against the market, even with a Vix at 15 right now. Because unless you get it right right in front of these numbers and that's not a great way to trade options. It's just a hard environment to trade right now. I mean, it really is in the market. Just levitates here.
- [08:44]
Melissa Lee
Right. Meantime, President Trump on Air Force One calling today's trade talks with China very good. Our Eamon Jarrah spoke with Treasury Secretary Besant following the talks. He's in Salcombe, Sweden with the very latest. Hi, Eamon.
- [08:57]
Guy Adami
Hey there, Melissa. Yeah, I sat down with the Treasury Secretary right after he got off the phone with President Trump briefing the President on the outcome of these trade talks. I asked the Treasury Secretary, you know, if there are any specific agreements that he could point to from the two day session here with the Chinese in Stockholm. He didn't point to any specific outcome here. And I also asked if he's prepared to do what the market really wanted from this meeting, which was to extend that Aug. 12 deadline for tariffs with China another 90 days. He wasn't prepared to commit to that, Melissa. He said he's got to go back to Washington and report in before he can do it. Here's the, here's what he said. It's pending President Trump's approval. He has final say on all the trade deals. I spoke to him right before I came in with you. I'm going to see him with Ambassador Greer tomorrow and he'll have the final decision. I think our Chinese counterparts have jumped the gun a little and said that we do have an extension. So you hear Besant there saying that the Chinese counterparts jumped the gun a little bit by announcing that they have a deal to extend that deadline. I think, you know, reading between the lines, you get the sense that he does expect that President Trump will announce tomorrow that they're going to extend that deadline. But that doesn't happen until it happens and the president can change his mind at any minute. So we'll see after that Oval Office briefing between Besson and Trump tomorrow in Washington what the official announcement is interesting here, that the scenario is that there'll be maybe another 90 day pause and keep that truce going that they set in London and then have to have another meeting. So another sit down somewhere else. Off camera. I was talking to the Treasury Secretary, you know, where might you actually do that? He was thinking maybe Portugal could be a good place to meet, but we don't know. And so it looks like we're going to see maybe a series of these now as the United States and China continue to negotiate. He also said that there was no discussion over the past two days of a Xi Jinping Donald Trump meeting. So that was something else that the market was looking for. Doesn't appear that we're any closer necessarily to that meeting than we were before this sit down started on Monday.
- [11:10]
Melissa Lee
Melissa what is your sense, Eamon, from the secretary about the progress, if any, being made about specifically rare earths, about the tariffs related specifically to fentanyl, for example, which I know the Chinese really, really want? I mean, that's just, you know, I don't want to say devastating, but it's impactful to them for sure.
- [11:30]
Guy Adami
Yeah. The treasury secretary told us that there's a sequencing problem on fentanyl. The Chinese want the American side to lift the fentanyl tariffs immediately, and the American side doesn't want to lift the fentanyl tariffs until they see what they feel is measurable progress on fentanyl precursors. So he said they simply have a sequencing problem, and that seems to be stuck for now. You know, on the other issues, we'll see where we land on a lot of these things. Doesn't seem like there was really a lot of progress. The treasury secretary talked a lot about the sort of the arc of the negotiations, the fact that they've got better rapport with their Chinese counterparts, that they have a rhythm now for these negotiations, that they know each other very well. There's, you know, some trust being established here, but not much to point to in terms of specific outcomes. He did say he'll take the deal to the President and then the president might have an announcement. So we'll watch in Washington for that tomorrow.
- [12:29]
Melissa Lee
All right, Eamon, thank you. Eamon Javers, live for us from Stockholm, Sweden. What do we make of here of this framework, the fact that the Chinese announced that there was an extension, but our side has said there's nothing yet until the president approves?
- [12:42]
Guy Adami
Well, it tells you that the extension is really what this is all about. And I guess both sides have posturing to be able to say this is where we, we got something. Look, see, we're Getting what we want. You know, China in this country is, is a bipartisan issue. So, you know, back to the market's interpretation of all this though is two days in a row. Let's, let's just assume maybe China jumped the gun. But if we have a three month delay, if there is some sense that there's a framework in place, this comes a day after at least we rallied very little on the EU news. So markets are at a place where each increasingly, you know, look, the two biggest trade deals have led to zero reaction in the markets. Now we all know we've rallied a lot, but I think that is getting back to what we've said is, is the impact of six times where tariffs were before Trump took office is something that we have to think about for the economy.
- [13:34]
Melissa Lee
So to Tim's point, do we sell on the news if there's a China?
- [13:37]
Guy Adami
Yes. I think you buy the rumor. I think it's going to be a slow walk. I think you buy the rumor and you sell the news. Once this, once this trade deal really hits paper, I think you could take some profits because then what's the next catalyst? And I think we're all struggling to find that, but I think they are going to slow walk. This is about antibiotics, this is about fentanyl, this is about rare earth. So there's a lot of ways to trade around it. I would buy the stock market into that, into that print. You know, very quietly the FXI is sort of get off the mat. You know, around $39 is a four year high in the FXI and I think that's the place to be. I mean, I'm with Tim and Steve on this one. In terms of sell the news, I think the US market might be sort of saturated on that. I don't think the Chinese market specifically K Web fx, individual names is pricing any of this in whatsoever. Yeah. So fentanyl taxes. Fentanyl, not tax or whatever it is, it doesn't really matter. You know, China is 10% of our imports. We just did this deal and I'm doing it in air quotes. If you're listening to it on the podcast network here. Or the radio. Or the radio. I didn't see air quotes. No, I'm just telling them that they don't know because they can't see me. Right, I understand we can get away with radio, tv, but I didn't see you do it. So I, you know, I saw him. You know what, you know what I see? I see Dan dressed in a suit on the first time on the hottest day of the year 2020. Looking sharp. This great photo shoot, all of us. It was.
- [14:53]
Melissa Lee
Well, don't tease the audience. Yes, you want to be a surprise.
- [14:56]
Guy Adami
It was pretty cool. Anyway, no more anymore. Okay, so these deals, okay, let's just call it what they are, right? We have the EU deal. It's a framework. It's one of those things where who knows if that's going to be implemented, but it's 15% across the board. We have Mexico, we have Canada. Those are 25% of our imports, right? So that's more than the EU and China's 10%. So we have a bunch of frameworks, we have a bunch of non deals and we don't know. And I think that's what the stock market, or at least individual stocks are telling us. That's what we started with. The market's not telling us that yet. And it's not giving reason for, I think, people to run for the hills. And let's be fair, there's no reason to run for the hills. If we had that announcement back in early April and we had that 30% decline or whatever we did, and we made it back in record time and here we are, we're much higher than that. Have a ball, you know, get ready. The dollar cost average on the way down. We will get a 10% correction at some point in the next year or so. Who knows, maybe it comes quicker than we think.
- [15:49]
Melissa Lee
All right. Meantime, UnitedHealth shares dropping 7 1/2% today after saying its 2025 earnings will be worse than expected. The insurer citing higher medical costs and Medicare Advantage plans as a major headwind. The stock is now down nearly 60% from its record high and has taken 1500 points off the Dow this year. This is the first guidance after the guidance was withdrawn when the CEO stepped down. This is new First Guidance under the new CEO Stephen Helmsley, but obviously a huge disappointment, Tim.
- [16:19]
Guy Adami
Yeah, and I know we wanted to get something even though this was not what we wanted to get. We did get more, actually. And I think the numbers that we received were a little worse than the street was expecting. So as we look to 26, that's really the number that the analysts have to use as their bogey because we don't know what this company's worth. Remember, this is a company that for a while traded 13, 14, 15 times, then traded mid-20s because it deserved a higher multiple on higher growth. Now, really hard to know where we're handicapping this number. I in the absence of a Federal probe that could have significant either punitive impact in terms of penalties and whatnot. The earnings power of this company to me, even with the Medicare Advantage dynamic, I think is is is weakened but is certainly very interesting.
- [17:05]
Melissa Lee
At 260 a share, the forecast adjusted EPS of 16. That's a little bit more than half of where that forecast was. The estimate was at the beginning of the year. Medical loss ratio estimate continue to come down here. So we're seeing all sorts of. Although they did hint at turning the corner in 2026 if you can wait that long.
- [17:24]
Guy Adami
Yeah, well last night on the show I said if they say anything incremental on the margins is positive, it should be trading 325. Obviously that didn't come to fruition. And I'll say this, they are buying back stock at a certain point that's going to be accretive as hell. But it is remarkable how poorly this trades. And then the next question you have to ask, and I think the market's trying to sniff this out, this is not just going to be a unh thing. I mean this is going to manifest its way through that entire sector. So I thought yesterday was the day that was wrong. Now you got to wait and see. The costs are still going up and for them if you look at the price of the stock it's back to April 2020 levels. So to guys point, I think the buy Signal is probably $40 lower than where it is right now.
- [18:07]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, the busiest week of earnings season is underway. Starbucks, Visa and more all reporting in just the last hour. The details in the numbers from the quarters next. Plus shares of Novo Nordisk. Their worst day since Black Monday in 1987. Can new leadership revive this long struggling stock and restore its position in the weight loss drug race? Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into.
- [18:34]
Guy Adami
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- [19:37]
Melissa Lee
On WhatsApp, no one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friends and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately at Capella University, Learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you.
- [20:13]
Guy Adami
Relevant skills you can take from the.
- [20:14]
Melissa Lee
Courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu welcome back to Fast Money. We've got an earnings alert on Starbucks, the stock getting caffeinated after hours after the coffee chain beat revenue estimates. Let's get to CNBC's Kate Rogers who's got the numbers. The very latest in the call. Kate hey Melissa, you said it revenues a B for Starbucks. Same store sales though fell for a fifth quarter in a row, down 2% overall. And also in the U.S. the stock was down but as you said, rebounded as CEO Brian Niccol discussed his back to Starbucks plans, including Green Apron service. That's its hospitality push with better staffing and engagement from baristas. I actually went to Seattle Monday to hear more about Green Apron service from COO Mike Grams. Take a listen.
- [20:59]
Guy Adami
You will see it show up in different ways across New York. You may see a digital host who's out front navigating that experience and able to connect at the same time. It could be an extra person at the drive thru. The idea is just really making sure that we've got the right partners in the right place at the right time throughout the entire day.
- [21:15]
Melissa Lee
The company says it will invest over half a billion dollars of additional labor hours into the US Company operated portfolio over the next year, beginning Melissa with that Green Apron service rollout that starts in mid August. There's also an app revamp coming next year along with beverage innovations like Prote cold foam. It also said it's sunsetting its mobile order pickup only concept in 2026. Fewer than 100 stores like that in the portfolio. One more note, three consecutive quarters of US transactions comps improving so the company Saying that the back to Starbucks plan.
- [21:44]
Guy Adami
Is working even though the financials are.
- [21:46]
Melissa Lee
Not quite there yet. I know CEO Brian Nicholl will be on Squawk on the street tomorrow morning for a first on CNBC interview. So much more to come guys. Tomorrow morning back over to you. What is the latest on on China K in terms of those consumers willingness to spend there especially when there's a really viable competitor there in the form of lock in but also its efforts to sell a stake in the China business. So China same store sales Melissa did reverse up 2% so that was a bright spot in the portfolio. And also Brian Nicholls said they've been working to identify a strategic partner with a like minded vision and values to capture those growth opportunities in China. He also noted significant interest from more than 20 interested parties. Said that they are currently evaluating options. So we will keep our eyes and ears open on that one. All right Kate, thanks. Kate Rogers. Thank you. All right, so Starbucks up 3%. Perking up 3% in the after hour session. As one says when one talks about Starbucks stock.
- [22:38]
Guy Adami
Yeah, it's a nice jolt and we could probably do all kinds of things right but, but we wouldn't because we're not like that here. We hate, we hate puns. The China sales increasing 2% is important and the global comps being flattish I think takes a little bit of the downer off of same store sales. Comps in the US continuing to get weaker and weaker. But I don't think there's anything that you have to go out and buy here. I really don't even know I'm long.
- [23:04]
Melissa Lee
The stock cup half full.
- [23:06]
Guy Adami
I'll go the half empty route. Six straight quarters now of declining sales which is not good. The comps are not good. Devaluation I don't think is good. Wait for this one, Tim. I'm surprised the shares are not getting roasted in the after hours. See what I did there? That might be my favorite.
- [23:22]
Melissa Lee
You think roasted really? You think it was that?
- [23:24]
Guy Adami
I don't think it's good. I think they're buying the stock on the promises of a turnaround that this man has done before in a much different situation. I think the, the obstacles that Starbucks face are far greater than what Chipotle Mexican grill face. Well if you still look at the chart of Chipotle and the chart of Starbucks, you'd still rather be in Starbucks. It's still betting on you'd rather be.
- [23:43]
Melissa Lee
Because you just felt rather.
- [23:45]
Guy Adami
Would you rather. Oh yeah, I really didn't plan on doing that. But I still bet on I'd rather have him manning the helm at Starbucks versus buying Chipotle. On a recovery story. 30% of US sales are digital. I didn't understand what Kate said about what they're doing with digital pickup over the winter. Did you know? Just digital only. So I think that's it. She said there's about 100 stores in the system that are only digital ordering. Got it. So I don't know how he's going to do the turnaround in store. I'm noticing that when I go in this, I make my own coffee at home now. I don't like paying up for that. So. But when I go in store, the vibe feels genuinely different than what it once felt like. That's a tough task if you're looking at through the filter of what we've seen in earnings over the last, over the last couple of weeks that we've been talking about like up 3% right here like that. This thing's going to be down on the open tomorrow.
- [24:36]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, even more after hours action, Visa, Mondelez booking and more. All in the mood. The details and numbers out of the reports ahead. You're watching Fast Money live. The NASDAQ markets at in Time Square back right after this. Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella.
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Guy Adami
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Melissa Lee
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Guy Adami
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- [25:46]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. We've got another earnings alert on Visa. Shares are lower by three and a half percent percent despite a beat on the top of the bottom line. CNBC's Hugh sun has got the details. Hugh.
- [25:56]
Guy Adami
Hey, Melissa. So Visa had another strong quarter, beating expectations for both EPS and revenue on good growth in payments volumes and processed transactions. Digging down into results, Visa beaten all its major revenue categories including servicing, data processing, international and international. And they spent less on client incentives than expected. According to CEO Ryan McInerney. US consumer spending remained Resilient, with strength in both discretionary and non discretionary spend. Now, if there was one weak spot for Visa, it's that after 14% revenue growth in the quarter, the company didn't increase its full year guidance. According to Mizuho analysts. Instead they kept the outlook at low double digit revenue growth. That could explain why the shares have been selling off after hours. And analysts are sure to ask about the guidance during the call which is going on right now. Back to you.
- [26:42]
Melissa Lee
All right, Hugh. Thank you Hugh. Sun, by the way, we should note that so far shares, they are down after hours after announcing a one and a half billion dollar stock sale. The shares had been up 6% during the session on its earnings report. There's a lot to trade here. The conference calls Hugh mentioned is going on right now. There's some headlines about cryptocurrencies. Consumers have used visa to spend $25 billion in cryptocurrencies and this since the year going to pull it up here 2020. Since 2020.
- [27:10]
Guy Adami
So I think there's one, yeah, there's one line I think that is concerned. The reason this is my opinion wired. Look, EPS growth, high single digits. The street was looking for 11 and a half percent. So people say high single digits, 8. The street expectations, 11 and a half. They're going to sell first, ask questions later at this valuation. It's not an indictment of the company. Absolutely not. It's just that when you're trading at that valuation and you give guidance like that, you're going to suffer a little bit. The cross border, depending on who you read. I read three or four, I glanced at three or four reports where they cited cross border was weak versus cross border was just fine as in a relief. But there's no question that this is part of where the focus is. Guy's right. I mean the Street, I think the street was expecting 10.3% in terms of the guide on the, on the fiscal fourth quarter. And this, this was, you know, again, high single digits to low doubles. Not what that expectation is. But this, this has been a stock to not bet against. And I think the, the consumer dynamics that we talked about are all tonight are the ones to really focus on. You know, you mentioned the SoFi and it's trading down after hours doing a secondary like that. I mean we say this all the time. The time people, you have a business that's either capital intensive or you have, you know, you need a cushion for lending or this and whatever. And you have a stock that's literally been up 200% in like the matter of months. This is when you do it. So that's how you do it.
- [28:31]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a nosedive for Novo Nordisk, the company slashing guidance naming a new CEO. Will new leadership revive the stock? The state of the weight loss space when Fast Money returns.
- [28:46]
Guy Adami
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast list. We're back right after this.
- [28:57]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks pulling back from records as China trade talks wrap up in Sweden. The Dow falling more than 200 points. The s and P and Nasdaq which both hit intraday highs early in the day, closing down about 3.10of a percent. Spotify dropping nearly 12% today, the stock's worst day in two years. The music streamer missing expectations on the top of the bottom lines and forecasting profit below, estimates shares of Corning heading in the opposite direction, jumping nearly 12% after topping EPS and revenue estimates. The stock trading at levels not seen since 2001. And a railroad deal making headlines today. Union Pacific buying rival Norfolk Southern in a $72 billion deal, creating the country's first coast to coast freight rail operator. If it is approved, it would be the largest ever buyout in the sector. And US Traded shares of luxury giant Kering closing well off the highs after of the company reported earnings. Gucci sales would typically make up nearly half of revenues plunged 25% in the quarter. The company flagging weaker sales across all of its markets led by Japan and the wider Asia Pacific. And some more after hours action here. Mondelez beating top and bottom line expectations, but organic growth falling short of estimates. EA and Booking holdings both topping EPS and revenue expectations. And Caesars topping revenue estimates but missing EPS expectations. And we've got a quick news alert here on some viewer numbers from Netflix. Julia Borson's got the details on this. Julia. Hey Melissa. Well, Happy Gilmore 2 is number one for Netflix. Adam Sandler's long awaited sequel was number one in Netflix's top English language movies, generating 46.7 million views over three days. It was also the biggest US opening weekend of all time for a Netflix film on the platform. Notably, the sequel also boosted interest in the original Happy Gilmore film. It ranked number three in the top 10 list with 11.4 million views. Back over to you. Thank you, Julia. Julia Boorstin I know that guy is a big Happy Gilmore fan, so Gilmore 2 was sort of hard, but you did enjoy it, didn't you?
- [30:55]
Guy Adami
I loved every minute of it, by the way. I know you know this, but just a Shout out to Adam Sandler, who's a big fan of the show.
- [31:00]
Melissa Lee
I'm sure he's watching right now.
- [31:01]
Guy Adami
No, you don't. I know you say that in Jess.
- [31:03]
Melissa Lee
It happens because he doesn't. Anyway, meantime, shares of Novo Nordisk dropping 22%, its worst day since 1987 after the company slashed its guidance for the second time this year. The Ozempic and WeGovy maker also announcing insider Maziar Mike Dudstar will take over as CEO next week. Full earnings are due out next Wednesday. BMO Capital Markets. Evan. David Seagerman is here to break it all down. Evan, great to see you.
- [31:26]
Guy Adami
Thank you for having me.
- [31:28]
Melissa Lee
What a reaction. I guess Mike Dewstar is not what investors had hoped for. I mean, he's an insider. He's been with the company for decades. He was head of the international division.
- [31:39]
Guy Adami
Well, their biggest business is in the United States, so a lot of folks are hoping it would be a US guy or a woman heading up the organization. But it seems that they are focused on international, which I think is frustrating investors. Yes, there's a big market there, but that's where the GLP1s are sold. And the guidance cut. Second quarter in a row. Not good either.
- [31:57]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, he was talking on the, on the call about having to react quicker, to respond more quickly, to accelerate growth. Does that mean acquisitions in your view? Because it seems like even if they want to bolster the pipeline at this point, they can't innovate internally to bolster that pipeline for immediate effect.
- [32:13]
Guy Adami
Most definitely. I mean, their only asset is semaglutide, whether it's Ozempic, but Govy Cadry, Sema, Oral semaglutide. They need something else, so they probably have to acquire. I think they've been very slow to react to not only some of the, you know, data updates, but also the commercial components. We were talking about the compounding issue and that is huge for them. It's not an issue for Lilly, but this has been a recurring theme that they cannot seem to get in front of.
- [32:41]
Melissa Lee
About a million patients use compounded semaglutide at this point.
- [32:46]
Guy Adami
No question about the usage. So my question to you is this. In terms of the stocks novo, the blooms off the rose, is this a positive on the margins for Lilly or is this just what's going to happen to Lilly over the next three or four months? No, I think it's a positive for Lilly because they are firing on all cylinders. Yeah, 3Q 4Q had some rough issues, but you look at Scripps they Zeppelin, Manjaro, eclipsing Wegovy and Ozempic. And I really think they've leaned into the moment really investing in manufacturing, dtc, they don't have the compounding issue. They're able to make acquisitions. So we forecast over time that they take a larger share of this growing market. So then it explains why the guide down of 9% on their fiscal 25, which we thought, you know, it's a preannounced. So it's. They're kind of getting out there. How much of this though is new CEO? Let's just get all the bad news on the table and was this, let's just get cut. Was this an overreaction? I don't think was an overreaction. I think it's a realization that Novo is losing share rapidly in the this market. I mean the valuation for these stocks is basically our belief that they are going to command a significant share of this market. And I don't think they're going to when it comes to the guidance cut today, I think it's a Danish kind of regulation. I actually asked them about that. They had to just tell us today, tell us about the CEO. Very confusing. I was more focused on Merck and then I had to pivot this morning.
- [34:08]
Melissa Lee
They said the guidance cut was related to volume and up price. So is that the next step here in order to gain some more share back?
- [34:14]
Guy Adami
Well, I don't think they want to create a race to the bottom because then they just don't have a market.
- [34:19]
Melissa Lee
Then what is the race here?
- [34:21]
Guy Adami
I think they really need to figure out how to get the volume up. They need to reengage with the physicians that they probably burned over the past year when physicians couldn't get the product. And I think they need to innovate. We need CAG3. We need an answer to Tirzepatide. Remember, Wegovy is just not as good as Zepbound.
- [34:37]
Melissa Lee
Okay, so what do they do next, do you think? What do you think Mike has to do? I mean if they're going to, I mean Eli Lilly is going to have an oral on the market in a year or so, right?
- [34:48]
Guy Adami
So I think they need to acquire. They need to refocus their R and D portfolio. It can't just be semaglutide. And I think they really need to reinvigorate their current commercial business. It seems that it's always ready, fire, aim, copying what Lilly does versus innovating in this space. The space is moving very quickly and they're Acting like it was three years ago.
- [35:09]
Melissa Lee
Too soon to buy.
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Guy Adami
Too soon to buy.
- [35:11]
Melissa Lee
Evan, great to see you. Thank you, Evan. David Sigerman of bmo. You bought before.
- [35:16]
Guy Adami
Yeah. So the questions about their positioning are what this comes down to because the argument in terms of at least where they were in terms of the global addressable market and where they were in GOP was kind of hard to dispute. What we're hearing today and what I think we're wrestling over is whether they're going to be there tomorrow. My sense is they will be. But there's no question that this is a stock. $140 stock. Touch 50 bucks at some point. This stock is not even necessarily that cheap here. But I think this was an overreaction. If you look at it on a technical basis, we're back to 20, 22 prices. So if he thinks that it's too soon to buy, you have to go back another year and then you're in the 30s as far as this. So you're looking at almost being cut in half on the stock price. History suggests you should be successful. Scared of people with three names such.
- [36:05]
Melissa Lee
As Evan David Siegerman.
- [36:06]
Guy Adami
In this case though, I make an exception. He's extraordinary. We love having him on and I'm with him sort of on the. In the zero sum game, Eli Lilly is clear to winning and it's a pretty much of a discount from the all time high. Lilly continues to be the trade.
- [36:19]
Melissa Lee
You have three names.
- [36:20]
Guy Adami
What's your middle name?
- [36:21]
Melissa Lee
You don't.
- [36:21]
Guy Adami
Christopher Adami, but I don't go by Guy Christopher Dami. I'm Guy Adami. Now if I went around saying I'm Guy Christopher Adami, if I were like, I'd be worried. If I were worried about yourself. Be worried about myself.
- [36:32]
Melissa Lee
Interesting.
- [36:33]
Guy Adami
No, but, but we don't need to use all three. But I think I'm now calling you Guy Christopher. You can if you want.
- [36:37]
Melissa Lee
Ca.
- [36:38]
Guy Adami
It's a nice, it's a, it's a regal ring, you know, small in the first and a big middle name as well. This should have been in our A block. I think this is much better than what we did.
- [36:46]
Melissa Lee
It really isn't. We're just going to go to break now. Coming up, some fast movers in today's session. What is behind the drops in UnitedHealth and Boeing and the details on a cyber deal catching our traders attention. Fast Money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. A turbulent day for Boeing shares giving up more than 2% gain to end the day down more than 4% despite the company reporting a narrower second quarter loss than analysts expected. Boeing also delivered the most airplanes in more than six years. CEO Kelly Ortberg telling Squawk box today he feels confident cash flow will turn positive in Q4. So what do we do here, Tim? We thought things are going well.
- [37:26]
Guy Adami
I think things are going fine. 200 million outflow on free cash flow is a number that most people would have been very happy about a year ago, probably six months ago. I think they're going to be 5 billion by the end of the year. So this is a name that I think you're in, you're staying the course. There was nothing today that knocks me off the market stock. And if you look at it, you said they delivered the most planes in six years. That attributes that's attributed to the highest revenue also in six years. And if you look at it on a chart, it's about gaining trust and security and safety. So when they convince the retail audience that they've they earned our trust back, people are going to dump back into the stock. I think you're okay buying it here.
- [38:10]
Melissa Lee
All right. And Cyberark shares jumping more than 13% to an all time high. This after a Wall Street Journal report that it is in talks to be a acquired by Palo Alto Networks. The deal would reportedly be worth more than $20 billion. Palo Alto falling 5% today. Neither cyber Arc nor Palo would comment on this report.
- [38:29]
Guy Adami
I hate the price action Panw all time high today. 3 times normal volume closed on the lows. I mean those are reversals that if you've been bullish, you don't like to see again tomorrow could change at all. But if tomorrow is a continuation then the next couple of weeks going to be dicey in Palo Alto. Yeah, and this makes sense I think for both of them. If you think about cyberc, they compete competent identity with Microsoft and Microsoft obviously a pretty formidable competitor. When you think about that Palo Alto wants to go deeper in there. They see the opportunity to do some cross selling and kind of gain some market share there. Also Palo Alto, their earnings and revenue growth have really come down to about mid teens right here. And think about this, the multiple that you're paying for this, you think about where they sit in the cybersecurity space. The idea of kind of tacking on some of these faster growing sort of processes if you will, I think makes a lot of sense. So they're using their I think very heavily valued currency to buy something that's growing faster. When you look at these names though the deeper you go down the tunnel, the, the more they perform. So I mean the smaller the company. So when you look at there's always a time for these cloud security or security players to really thrive and we just don't see that in stock price. Some of them are. But when you look at like a Palantir, that one has the government so totally entrenched. I'd stick with the ones that have government contracts.
- [39:47]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, the scars from Q2's volatility. Why retail traders can forgive but soon won't forget the big swings even as markets hovered near record highs. The details next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the chairman and CEO of Merck. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Matt. Add Money, More FAST Money on to welcome back to FAST money. Retail traders cautiously optimistic heading into the second half of the year. According to Charles Schwab's latest survey, the brokerage reporting a major rebound in sentiment after a volatile second quarter with 57% of respondents now bullish on stocks. That is the highest since the survey's inception in 2022. For more on the findings, Schwabisch Jobs head of trading services James Castillius joins us here on set. James, great to see you. Why are they getting cautious? I feel like the retail trader actually got it right in terms of staying long during this whole volatile period. Why are they cautious now?
- [40:42]
Guy Adami
I agree. I think when you look at the overall bullish sentiment coupled with 57% think the market may be a bit overvalued, I think there's two stories there. I think there's a bullish story long term and maybe some caution in the short term that maybe things are a little bit oversold. No. You had Carter on yesterday showing some of the technicals around the S and P and sort of some of the resistance levels. And then Michael Koh talking about futures forwards. And so I think there's some trepidation in the short term, but overall a lot of bullishness in the longer term.
- [41:13]
Melissa Lee
Okay, so they're still staying long or are they changing how they are positioning given the cautiousness?
- [41:18]
Guy Adami
Yeah, it's a great question. I think they're mostly long. We've certainly seen some hedging activities and I don't think it's a any type of irrational exuberance when you look at the sentiment right now. And so some of the more higher leverage strategies, the risk on strategies that we saw back in April, we're seeing less of that. So overall Margin growth is back to healthy levels as it was in April. But the more riskier strategies are not ones clients are undertaking right now. I think they, they learned a little bit of a lesson where they saw what could have been back in April and they're a little bit more cautious right now. It's lovely that James obviously watches the show.
- [41:52]
Melissa Lee
Number one, yes, huge fan of the.
- [41:54]
Guy Adami
Show, huge fan, as is Adam Sandler. Number two, it's a much different retail trader than even five years ago. Did you think that they feel that they're nimble enough that if they see the turn coming they'll be able to get out? I guess is my question. I do, I do, I think, agree with your hypothesis completely. The retail trader has evolved a lot over the course of the last few years. We wrapped personally at Schwab a lot of education and service and risk management management around the value proposition. We talk about high probability trading as opposed to some of the more riskier strategies that traders would be in. And I think the retail trader is a smart trader right now in 2025. James, where in terms of positioning is it though? Is, is, is the caution around mega cap tech stocks? Is it, is it that the broadening of the market really isn't there? In other words, is it the narrowness of this movement where, where would you say positioning really is, especially in the biggest companies in the world? Yeah, we certainly saw in June we saw some selling on Nvidia, we saw some selling on Coinbase. And so some of the stocks that have really broken out in the mega caps, definitely a little bit more caution on them. And I think, you know, one of the things I know we talked a little bit about is the, you know, sort of the next wave of meme stock trading and so maybe taking some profits off the table on some of the mega caps and, and moving them into some of the undervalued names perhaps. But I couldn't agree more with Guy's point of even with a little bit of an increase in some of Those stocks, your GoPros and your Krispy Kremes and your Kohl's is nothing like what we saw back in the pandemic. James, when you, when you hear the clamoring for new products or the new offerings, when are you guys going to start trading Crypto? Yeah, so we have a lot of ways for clients to get exposure to crypto today. So we've got roughly 20% of the ETP market in the crypto ETFs. We offer Bitcoin futures, Etherium futures, and obviously options on the ETPs. We're arduously working on a spot crypto offering and we're going to deliver it to our clients in the not too distant future.
- [43:55]
Melissa Lee
So when you talk about a client that's getting more cautious, does that include crypto as a risk asset or how do they view crypto in their portfolio?
- [44:02]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I think their views on crypto have probably changed a bit after what we saw in April. Right. At some point there was some talk, maybe even on this show guy I don't watch every day, but I watch most days around, definitely night before he's on around crypto becoming a little bit more of a safe haven. Right. And so I think when we talk about the overvaluation of the market that roughly 57% of the survey clients said, I don't think crypto was at the heart of that overvaluation. I think it was more what Tim was talking about in terms of the mega caps in the max seven.
- [44:32]
Melissa Lee
And something jumped out at me in the notes. The two busiest trading days were in the second quarter for Schwab.
- [44:37]
Guy Adami
Yeah, right, right, right around all the. Right around the 7th, 8th and 9th, those three days in April. But one other point I just wanted to make most on the, on the survey was that 80% of clients talking about buying the dip. And I think to me that's another sort of affirmation on, hey, I'm bullish long term, but maybe not as much in the short term. But if I see that dip, I'm going to ultimately go ahead and buy it. And as we know, retail investors have been rewarded for doing that.
- [45:06]
Melissa Lee
Yep. James, great to see you. Thank you. James.
- [45:09]
Guy Adami
Thank you so much.
- [45:10]
Melissa Lee
He didn't know that he had that in common with Adam Sandler. I bet when he. Lots and comments. Adam Sandler, but the meme stocks, you've been pointing this out in terms of some sort of signal for the markets.
- [45:21]
Guy Adami
Yeah. But it was short lived. Right. So did not feel like 2021. And I think James kind of spoke to that a little bit. So we've had kind of fits and starts with some of that. I guess I'd kind of go in to. Okay, what is it meant for like let's say a core weave and a circle. These are like real market cap. They're recent IPOs. They definitely became meme stocks. But they've come off. They're both down about 40% from those recent highs.
- [45:40]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades, final trade time.
- [45:46]
Guy Adami
Tim, it's good to be dressed up tonight. I mean everyone look good. I don't know why I don't like guy didn't have his jacket on. But I'll tell you what you know. You know who's flying high is Delta. They're looking good, too. Steven intel right around where the stock should jump. Dan yeah, Nvidia. I think it's probably time right now. Croton we didn't have money for jackets. Tim make me feel bad. Nasdaq goes to 95, goes to 100.
- [46:08]
Melissa Lee
All right, thank you for watching Fast Money, jacket or no jacket. See you tomorrow. Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you.
- [47:02]
Guy Adami
Relevant skills you can take from the.
- [47:03]
Melissa Lee
Courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella.
- [47:10]
Guy Adami
Eduardo.