CNBC "Fast Money" – Episode Summary

Episode: Valuation Concerns Rise… And A Technical Take On Stock Gaps
Air Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies), with reports from CNBC correspondents

Episode Overview

This episode centers on a marked shift in market sentiment, focusing on mounting worries about stock valuations amid a risk-off environment. The roundtable evaluates steep selloffs in tech high-flyers including Palantir, and explores the technical mechanics underlying "gaps" in stock charts. Additional discussion covers after-hours earnings movers (AMD, Kava, Uber, Pfizer), a technical outlook on energy stocks, and notable developments in commercial real estate. Throughout, the panel blends market analysis and actionable trade strategies, while returning to the big question: Are valuations finally starting to matter again?

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Valuations Take Center Stage as the Risk-On Rally Stalls

• Selloffs in High-Flyers:
  • Palantir (-8% after earnings despite raising full-year guidance; still +170% YTD; [00:47–02:26]).
    • Pre-earnings P/E was over 278x; even after the drop, it’s 214x.
    • Debate: Was this a simple correction, evidence of changing sentiment, or signs of deeper structural fatigue in risk assets?
  • Meta and Nvidia also discussed—sentiment, not valuation, seen as real market driver by some panelists.
• Panel Views:
  • Guy Adami: Market volatility and higher VIX signal caution. Notes Warren Buffett has “north of $370 billion on their balance sheet,” suggesting insiders are also preparing for a shift ([03:09]).
  • Dan Nathan: “The farthest thing from a plunge”—Palantir's retreat is minor, and execution is more crucial than valuation, but warns a serious stumble could have outsized impact ([04:00–05:21]).
  • Karen Feinerman: Still sees the “promise” in AI, but is particularly wary of Meta’s declining cash reserves and opaque monetization ([05:51]).

Notable Quote:

“The only thing to me that’s important right now: you better win. Because if you don’t, it’s taking the whole tech sector down with it... It goes all the way to Main Street.”
—Dan Nathan ([05:21])

2. Sentiment, Technicals, and the Role of Gaps

• Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies):

  • Today’s pullback is “pretty minimal…not enough to impact intermediate or long-term gauges” ([07:49]).
  • Focus on chart gaps: what they mean, why they matter, and how they can reveal market psychology ([32:57–34:01]).
    • Breakaway gaps: Signal new trends, but must be confirmed.
    • Exhaustion gaps: Mark the end of momentum—if quickly reversed, can imply further weakness.

• Sentiment Measures:

  • Fear & Greed Index at extreme low (23%), possibly short-lived correction.
  • Market may shift “from overbought to oversold within a day,” leaving room for sideways consolidation ([08:52]).

Notable Quote:

“Usually that [gap fill] is a short-term setback, but it’s not enough to impact the intermediate or long-term gauges.”
—Katie Stockton ([07:49])

3. Focus on Key Companies and Trades

A. Nvidia Bull Run and Caution Ahead of Earnings ([09:47–14:28])

• Dan Nathan: Skeptical about further upside; massive run-up from $300B to nearly $5T mkt cap is “unprecedented.”
  • Predicts exuberance will correct, as in prior tech bubbles.
  • Suggests not rushing to short at highs, but flagging fatigue and risk of “cut in half” valuations as tech concentration increases.

“At some point it’s just not going to work anymore… and it’s going to do so to the downside at some point.”
—Dan Nathan ([12:36])

B. AMD and Amazon After-Hours Moves ([18:37–20:23])

• AMD beats but slips after hours; margins only in line, and Amazon’s liquidation of its stake drags on the stock.
• Panel discusses the complexity of inter-company investments and strategic moves in the AI space.

C. Kava & Wingstop/Earnings Underwhelm ([24:04–26:13])

• Kava cuts full-year guidance for a second time; same-store sales growth and margin compression draw concern.
• Panelists point out that high-multiple stocks are especially vulnerable to downside when growth/margins weaken.

D. Pfizer, Novo, and the Weight-Loss Drug Battle ([28:05–29:32])

• Bidding war over Metsera may be getting “too expensive”—panelists generally prefer staying on the sidelines.

E. Uber Disappointment Despite Beat ([29:44–30:53])

• Largest trip volume ex-pandemic, but spending/margin commentary spooks investors.
• Stock is “likely to go higher,” says Guy, but technicals point to a possible short-term pause.

4. Technical Deep Dive: Gaps and Chart Setups

What is a gap? ([32:57, Katie Stockton])

• "When the price opens higher/lower than where it closed, leaving a vacuum of support or resistance on the chart."

• Two main types:

  • Breakaway gap: Launches a new trend; positive if confirmed by price action.
  • Exhaustion gap: Marks the end of a move; often reversed quickly, signaling a potential top/bottom.

• Highlighted Stock Examples:

  • Oracle: Recent up-gap reversed quickly, suggesting an exhaustion gap ([34:01]).
  • Meta: Currently sitting in a gap down—has not yet reversed, which is concerning ([34:09–35:35]).
  • Amazon: Positive setup as gap support holds; watch the low print from the gap-up day as a key technical level ([36:48]).

Notable Quote:

“If you see Meta for one come back up into its gap, that would be the impetus to say, okay, well the gap was overdone.”
—Katie Stockton ([36:24])

5. Markets, Rates & Macro Factors

• Ben Emmons (FedWatch Advisors):
  • Not outright bubble bursting, but “profit-taking … and then maybe seeing that the market is completely so overvalued that we again have bubble formation bursting” ([14:46–15:50]).
  • Not recommended to sell or short at this stage; may be better to “grab some value here once this flushes out.”
  • Fed widely expected to “hold” rates in December; marginal impact on markets compared to valuation focus now ([17:03]).

6. Commercial Real Estate Insights ([38:08–40:39])

• New exclusive data shows property sales have stalled; dealmaking well below pre-Covid levels.
• Flight to quality: Larger average deal sizes, focus on top assets (office/retail), while hotels lag.
• Notable buyers: Apple, Nvidia, MetLife (value hunting), Tanger and Nuveen (retail sector).

7. Energy Sector – Technical Outlook ([41:51–44:12])

• Katie Stockton: Crude oil near multi-year support (mid-$50s/barrel).
• Oil services (OIH ETF, SLB, Halliburton) in “early-stage reversal,” may outperform in weeks ahead.
  • Energy can rally even in weak equity markets, as seen in 2022.
• Guy Adami: SLB breaking out of year-long downtrend; further upside likely if closes above $37.50.

8. Final Trades ([44:33–45:24])

• Katie Stockton: SLB for basing phase breakout.
• Karen Feinerman: Morgan Stanley—bullish on investment banks after recent “Merger Monday.”
• Dan Nathan: CME Group—should benefit if VIX rises and volatility returns.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dan Nathan [04:00]: “When you hear their CEO on CNBC this morning screaming about short sellers… you have to ask yourself, these people, they can’t just appreciate they have a trillion dollars of supposed value?... You better execute… If not, the repercussions are a lot more than one day.”
• Katie Stockton [07:49]: “Short term, the impact is really pretty minimal after today, even to Palantir’s chart… not enough to impact the intermediate or long-term gauges.”
• Karen Feinerman [05:51]: "Are the valuations out of whack? Yeah, maybe... The one that concerns me the most is Meta, with the valuation that is the lowest, because we really haven’t been able to see as much of the monetization."
• Ben Emmons [15:17]: "To me this is like a profit-taking sort of movement... like a kind of a frost taking out of the market and then maybe seeing that the market is completely so overvalued that we have again, bubble formation is bursting."
• Guy Adami [18:00]: "I think we’re well past whether or not the Fed cuts 25 or not in December… I think it does come down to valuations when people start to focus on it… There’s a reason why [Buffett/Berkshire] is approaching $400 billion of cash on their balance sheet."

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:47] — Show open, Main topics overview (Palantir plunge, gaps, risk-off mood)
• [02:26–07:46] — Panel: Valuation worries, Palantir, AI sentiment, risk-off
• [07:49–09:27] — Katie Stockton: Technical view, gap analysis begins
• [09:47–14:28] — Nvidia, Mega-cap tech earnings expectations, Burry’s put positions
• [14:28–18:00] — Guest Ben Emmons: Market overextension, Fed outlook
• [18:37–20:23] — AMD earnings, Amazon stake sale, after-hours reactions
• [24:04–27:03] — Kava and Wingstop earnings, consumer spending concerns
• [28:05–30:53] — Pfizer/Novo bidding war; Uber earnings and technicals
• [32:57–38:08] — Chart gaps explained, Meta/Amazon/Oracle/technical setups
• [41:51–44:12] — Energy sector technicals, oil and services stocks
• [44:33–45:24] — Final trades and lighthearted wrap-up (Melissa Lee's birthday shoutout)

Takeaways & Actionable Themes

• Tech and AI stocks' valuations are stretched: Even with operational beats, sentiment can turn rapidly in this crowded, momentum-driven trade.
• Execution risk rising: Companies need to deliver on ambitious CapEx and AI promises, or face brutal re-ratings.
• Chart "gaps" offer clues: Watch for fills and reversals as signals for technical traders—what looked like breakouts may prove fleeting.
• Energy stocks offer upside potential: Services sector (SLB, Halliburton) may stage a comeback as technicals improve.
• Macro: Fed less of a focus now: Investors begin shifting gaze from rates to fundamentals and value.
• Be cautious chasing new highs in crowded trades: Wait for clearer pullbacks or technical signals before entering.

Further Information

Find more actionable analysis and replays at: fastmoney.cnbc.com

Note: This summary omits ads and non-content segments, focusing exclusively on the actionable insights, quotes, and technical analysis discussed by the panel.