← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Valuation Concerns Rise… And A Technical Take On Stock Gaps 11/4/25
00:43:55
Skyhigh valuations finally weighing on stocks as investors roll out of the risk-on trade. The details behind the drop in Palantir, the crypto trade, and if there’s more pain to come. Plus a lot of technical jargon to know, and Katie Stockton is closing the gap on some of the lingo. What you need to know about technical analysis, and the names she’s watching. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Live.
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C
In the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A Palantir plunge. Shares of the software company dropping even after a solid earnings report was the sky high of valuation finally too much to handle? We'll debate that and what it means for the rest of the market. And mind the gap. Oracle's nearly erased all its gains since it's loaded with a trillion dollar market cap. What's it mean? And what fate awaits other stocks in similar situations. Plus AMD and Kava on the move after earnings shares of Uber sold out on its latest report and is energy basing why? One top technician who happens to be sitting here says these names might be ready to outperform through year end. I'm Melissa Lee county live from studio BE at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Gaia Dami and Katie Stock, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies. We start off with the latest blows to the risk on rally with investors seeming to grow increasingly concerned over steep valuations, major averages all in the red and closing near session lows. The tech heavy NASDAQ leading the declines of some of this year's highest flyers take a hit. Palantir dropping 8% its worst day since August even after the software company topped third quarter estimates and lifted full year guidance thanks to growth in its AI business. Before today's move, Palantir had ripped more than 170% percent higher this year. It waned into last night's report with a P E ratio of more than 278 times forward. But now that valuation stands at roughly 214 times a bargain. And in yet another sign of risk off sentiment, Bitcoin pulling back sharply, briefly dipping below 100k for the first time since June. So why are markets suddenly seeming to pay attention to valuations now? And where do we go from here, Guy?
- [02:26]
D
Well, this is special day for a myriad of reasons which we'll discuss later. And it's great to have Katie here on a technical day. But we have been pointing out, I think now correctly, that Bitcoin has been trying to tell the broader market something. You obviously saw what happened there. And we have thought collectively that the volatility was going to continue to be a thing. And here we are at 19, a little bit north of 19. And again, a down day. Yes, but not at a historically bad day. So I think the VIX is quietly making move to the upside as well. Now, you mentioned valuations seemingly matter now. Yeah, I do think they seemingly matter. And what we didn't talk about last night, but it's worth pointing out, I think tonight that Warren Buffett now quietly has north of $370 billion on their balance sheet. So they're clearly preparing themselves for something.
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A
Yeah, I mean, I don't think it has much to do with valuation because the whole way up over the last few months on any of these names that have gone up, doubled and then doubled again. And there's plenty of them.
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B
Right.
- [03:19]
A
If you think about the market cap that a lot of these companies have accrued, no one's cared about valuation. So the one day that we have an earnings report from a company that was trading nearly 115 times sales, at least on this year, had nearly a. A trillion dollar market cap, that's obviously Palantir. You know, it's kind of priced for perfection. And again, I don't mean that in valuation terms. I mean that in sentiment terms. I mean that. And you know, you get this news flow and then the question is, who's the incremental buyer? Right? Because we've actually known this. We've known that the quarter was going to be a beat and raise and if it wasn't, the stock would be trading at $150. So when you think about the stock being down 8% or whatever it is today, that's like a roundier. I mean, that's like nothing. I mean, we talk about it, you just use the term plunge. I know you didn't use it. Somebody wrote that.
- [04:01]
E
You know what I mean?
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A
But like my. That's, that's the farthest thing from a plunge. It just actually took back about half of the gains that it made over the last week and a half or so. So I just think that when you hear their CEO on CNBC this morning screaming about short sellers. When you hear Sam Altman last week on Brad Gerster's podcast screaming about short.
- [04:20]
C
Sellers, non existent short sellers and he's.
- [04:22]
A
In a product, you have to ask yourself, these people, they can't just appreciate that they have a trillion dollars of supposed value in their two companies and they're doing all this amazing stuff. They can't just appreciate that. They have to start looking around and talking about the naysayers. You guys won. But here's the only thing that to me that's important right now, you better win. Because if you don't win, it's taken the whole tech sector down with it. It's taking part of the economy down with it. If you think about how much of this capex spend, how much of this circular sort of investment is pushing our GDP right now. So I hope you guys can actually do all the things you say you're going to do. And it actually has nothing to do with market cap or valuation in the private markets. It has to do with executing. It has to do with investors believing you can do it. And it also has to do with your whole ecosystem, your supply chain and customers and all that sort of stuff believing you can do it. And you better execute on the stuff that you're delivering because if not the repercussions are a lot more than one day. With the NASDAQ down 2% from an.
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C
All time, it goes all the way to Main Street.
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A
Correct.
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C
Which are overexposed to this trade via ETFs and in their retirement they realize, whether they realize it or not, but it's not just Palantir. And yes, so let's put it into perspective. It is an 8% plunge if you'll indulge me that pullback. But we also had Metta which had reasonably, you know, good earnings but it was the capex. So are we starting to sort of doubt this story or think twice about what they are telling us and if, if it is worth it?
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B
If it is worth it.
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C
That is right.
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B
That is a great question. I mean Dan's point though, I mean Nvidia is back to where it was the middle of last week and you know, volunteer, you know, a day or two around that. So yeah, so I take the plunge thing with, you know, grain of sand but I think that the promise is still there. It has never been though that the market would perfectly track the promise and the growth of AI. And you know, clearly this is since all of them are trading down and not all of them had news Today it's a sentiment thing and it's a risk off and a fear thing and that could, who knows how long that could go on. So I think, you know, if you're, if you're, if you're the new retail investor and you're recently into this trade and you see this happening tonight, I don't know what do you do? Do you get scared enough to sell or you're so new to it, like, oh, it was at this price last week. It has to get back there. It will get back there. I don't know how they deal with it. You know, to me, like a day like today, not great for the pnl, but I think that there is, the story is still intact in many ways. Are the valuations out of whack? Yeah, maybe the one that concerns me the most is Metta with the valuation that is the lowest because we really haven't been able to see as much of the monetization. We know their business is better, we know that they're offering products that are better. We also know that they do get some monetization from Lama, but you know, some revenue sharing from us, from Azure, from Google. We don't know how much that they don't break it out. That's not delightful. I'd like, I'd like to hear it. But I do think that this one concerns me because the amount of the spend is so big now, the balance sheet now going from a cash hoard to a not cash hoard. In fact, a little bit of a debt is concerning. So this one I'm the least comfortable with.
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C
Where do you stand on where we are and whether valuations are starting to matter?
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F
Yeah, I would say it's definitely a sentiment shift in our work. That's what we care most about, of course, but it's just short term. The impact is really pretty minimal after today, even to Palantir's chart. But what it does do, it leaves a breakout that was pending confirmation, unconfirmed. It had broken out above 190. Now it's right back below, comes back into some gaps on the chart. We'll talk about gaps later. So we're seeing the same from the S&P 500. It had some gap up that are now closing. So usually that is a short term setback, but it's not enough to impact the intermediate or long term gauges. So what seems to be maybe the start of a pullback or the start of consolidation? The sentiment can be worked off pretty quickly and already the fear and greed index is down. To 23%. So that's an extreme level. It takes usually maybe a couple of weeks for it to resolve. But short term is the emphasis.
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C
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley CEO saying 10 to 15% pull back from here. So that's certainly fueling the concern over valuations where we are in the market.
- [08:53]
D
Agreed. We've heard that from a number of different people. Has not come to fruition. It would make sense. It's not like it's, you know, it's not without. It's happened historically. It's not. It shouldn't happen again. And I do think valuations matter at some point. Katie's right. I mean, it's seeming we go from an overbought condition to oversold within a day or so. But it can also work itself out, as she will tell you, if we go sideways for a period of time as well. So the only thing that feels different to me is the following. Bitcoin is clearly trying to tell us something that's a risk off trade without question. And the fact that the volatility index continues to sort of peak its head up, I think that's going to be a story towards the end of the year.
- [09:28]
B
So I always like to buy when there's real fear and, you know, blood on the streets, even if it is my own, as a Rothschild saying. But the Vix here at 19 is really. That's no man's land.
- [09:38]
D
Right.
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B
It needs to be materially higher to have that sort of panic that, I mean, this was, you know, not delightful, but not a panic at all.
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A
Yeah. So Nvidia reports on the 19th, and I feel like we've spent a lot of time talking about this over the last few quarters, like this past week when we've had like, you know, 65% of their revenues of the companies reporting. Right. A big concentration there. But my question is, what the heck are they going to say in two weeks? Like, literally what are they going to say? Every one of their customers has risen or raised their capex. You know, some were punished for it, like Metta. Right. People are kind of diversifying away, whether it's Google's, TPU's, whether it's AMD, whatever. They got Google, Qualcomm, you went up, remember that day, went up 20% because they announced that they're going to do something. Now obviously they're not going to do it. I don't know if you guys have seen Broadcom. That thing has been trading like they're going to change the world, that sort of thing. So at some Point, the Nvidia thing, it was underperforming before it broke out relative to the S and P, relative to many of its, you know, semi large cap tech peers. But what are they going to say, like if they raise their guidance. Okay, fine, we already saw all that, you know what I mean there, the China thing, they'll say, oh, we're not in China right now while they're going to be selling some of the hoppers, that sort of thing. I don't know.
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B
I mean, let me just push back on Dan for a second.
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C
If you don't.
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B
So just, just to play devil's advocate, is there no guidance that they could give that would be worthy of the.
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A
Quarter they missed on their data center number? I mean think about that. And no one cared because it was like a sentiment thing. So if you're telling me now if the sentiment is shifting a little bit, then they might care for the first time. They might care when we've seen hundreds of billions of dollars of capex and contracts that are being doled out that we actually know are very unlikely. The Oracle deal, Get Oracle, pull that thing up. That filled in the entire gap with.
- [11:24]
C
The US Open a ideal which is in video GPU specifically, not Trainium.
- [11:28]
A
Okay, let me ask you this. So supposedly that $38 billion deal, they are basically going to be able to just start using that compute right away. So does that mean that AWB had a bunch of excess compute just sit around there? Satya Nadella, again, on Brad Gerstner's podcast last week he said, I got, I got GPUs lying around, I got racks, I got this stuff, I can't put them to work because I don't have the energy. This is the second time he said that on Brad's podcast in the last six months.
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C
So you think there's an overbuild? There's overcapacity right now, it's obvious.
- [11:57]
A
So if you tell me that like so Palantir is up 500% in a year because enterprises and government are buying their crap. They just guided this year to four and a half billion dollars in revenue and maybe they'll do six and a half next year. So they're growing at 50% off a tiny base. So you tell me why that makes any sense.
- [12:18]
C
So there's a big splash today about Michael Burry of Big Short fame having a large put position in both Nvidia as well as another stock. But Nvidia, pertinent to this conversation, would you be inclined to make such in the Past you have done that and this is years ago. So I want to make that clear. But is now the time to think.
- [12:36]
A
It'S going to be the fattest pitch in the market? At some point it just will because it's. We've never seen a stock go from $300 billion in market cap and two years later be at $5 trillion. Nothing to that scale ever. So at some point it's just not going to work anymore. It's going to go from being the massive outperformer, just the massive one that's consumed every bo. I don't know what you want to call energy or excitement or euphoria in the space and sometime it'll go the other way because it overshot obviously to the upside and it's going to do so to the downside at some point.
- [13:05]
F
I mean we never advocate shorting stocks at new all time highs. It's just a good rule of thumb. So we want to wait to see when the momentum shift is more meaningful. I think investors should actually welcome a pullback in Nvidia here ahead of earnings because then it won't be coming in so hot. It'll teed up for something that's a bit more positive in the reaction. We've certainly seen some very dramatic reactions from earnings reports, including Metta. Metta is probably one to worry about in terms of the reaction. It's a breakdown, it's meaningful. And we haven't come back into the gap over the coming days or recent days.
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A
Sorry, one last thing.
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C
All right. You're on fire tonight. Yeah. By the way, in case some people.
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A
Twitter, they think he's melting down. No, that would be if I was long them today. Okay, just really quickly. Nvidia went down 67% from its 21 highs to its 22 lows. And I know it's so different this time. I know that was just crypto mining and you know, all this other crap. Well, so did matter, so did Netflix and so did missing one more whatever. Tesla, they all went down 70% and then this spring they all went down 40%. So the idea that they couldn't be cut in half is ridiculous because actually like if you think about the stakes are so much higher now and everyone, it's so much more concentrated and everyone's so focused on the same exact thing. So the idea that it couldn't happen again is one of the dumbest things that anyone could say in this market right now.
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C
For more on overvaluation worries, let's bring in Ben Emmons, founder and Chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisors. Ben, great to have you with us. And I've been listening in on this conversation the whole time. Where do you stand? Are you in the Dan camp? Are you somewhere happier?
- [14:46]
E
I'm in Los Angeles. I feel pretty good there actually. But, but you know, with a little bit Dan, because, you know, this is a market that really is paying attention to the price of the stocks. And you know, for, for people who don't track this maybe closely, but you know, this PE multiple we often talk about selling a ratio looks indeed on these stocks that we really got very high on the, on the price relative to earnings, even though the outlook for these earnings remains strong. I think that's the realization today in the marketplace that maybe this got way too overextended and you see profit taking and then people react to that profit taking. In addition to the sentiment factor, we talked about like people calling for shorts. I would say though, to people watching this, like you don't want to sell here or go short. That's a pretty specific type of trading strategy. But it is an opportunity to ultimately grab some value here once this sort of flushes out. So to me this is like a profit taking sort of movement. Mel. It's more like, like a kind of a frost taking out of the market, like he taking out the market and then maybe seeing that the market is completely so overvalued that we have again, bubble formation is bursting.
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D
Ben, you said we're nosebleed territory in terms of valuations, which we've been at for a while. As you know. What would be the thing that you're watching, the main thing that suggests people will start to focus on valuation. Today wasn't necessarily the day, but what would it look like in your opinion?
- [16:07]
E
I think you do get at some point the markets start to pay attention to the economy really getting more visibility. I think that, that I think plays a role here too because we have no data and we don't know when this government's going to reopen. So to get better sense of what really is going on in the economy, I think that is the other part of the story. In addition to that, there's a lot of positioning. As Dan says, it's super concentrated. So as that sort of get worked out a bit, I think that's the other sort of moment, technical moment that you could pay attention, have these stocks sort of worked off this excess value against an economy that likely still looks really good, but we don't know really for sure. So I think that's that's the way to look at it.
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C
It's almost like we are in a blissful period of no information. Ben enters the economy and so we were able to sort of float along in your forecast. Where will the Fed go in December? Hold.
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E
So we can include signals here now that the Fed wants to potentially go on hold because this is worry about inflation that's lingering in a lot of these Fed members minds. I was kind of like surprised to see Lisa Cook yesterday put in our speech and put some language like now if this tariff continues to go on and starts affecting inflation, we have to act forcefully. One of the first ones to make that sort of statement that we heard in 2022 when they had to catch up on inflation. That really brought the market into a bear market. Don't think that we're going to see rate hikes being considered. But a hold is probably appropriate for many of these members. I think it's a hold camp.
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C
All right, Ben, we're going to leave it there. It's always great to get your take on things. Ben, thanks. Does this matter? I mean in terms of hold 25 basis points in terms of where the markets are in valuation, does the Fed matter?
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D
I think. Well you know Jamie Dimon said this a year ago and Karen knows everything that he said in the history of what he has said. But he made a point of saying people like he didn't use my name but people in the punitry world make way too much out of the Federal Reserve. It's not as important as people think. And I do agree with that. I think we're well past whether or not The Fed cuts 25 or not in December, although the market won't like it. I think it does come down to valuations when people start to focus on it. And I mentioned Warren Buffett before. I mean clearly there's a reason why they're approaching $400 billion of cash on their balance sheet against a trillion dollar market cap company. He sees something I think the market maybe start to sniff it out as well.
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C
All right, let's get to an earnings alert here on amd. Shares are down after hours despite the company topping Wall street estimates on both the top and the bottom lines. The chip makers conference call is underway. CNBC's MacKenzie Seagalas got the latest. Mackenzie.
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G
Hey Mel. So that earnings beat is being powered by stronger than expected data center revenue. CEO Lisa Su on the earnings call just now talking about momentum and that business accelerating. Part of why they guided to Q4 revenue that's above street estimates and that's what investors have been waiting for. A sign that AMD big bets are starting to deliver. The company recently signed a chip and equity deal with Open Air. You guys were just talking about that. A move that helped drive a major rally with AMD coming off its best month since 2018, 2001, and trading at about 50 times forward earnings going into the print. But gross margins, a key measure of profitability, were only in line for both Q3 and Q4. And that may be why the stock is slipping after hours. Despite all that optimism, Mel and Mac.
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C
You'Ve got more on Amazon dissolving at stake in AMD and Quantum stock. IonQ.
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F
Yes.
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G
So we just learned earlier today that Amazon liquidated its entire AMD stake worth just shy of 117 million. And we saw AMD shares in sell off earlier today right after that 13 filing crossed. But I did just hear back from Amazon and they say that the reason they were holding any AMD shares to begin with was because they took a stake in a small company called ZT Systems. They manufacture and deploy servers for companies including Amazon Web Services. And now that stake in ZT Systems was converted into AMD shares when AMD bought the server maker. So this shouldn't be read as Amazon making a deliberate choice to get out of the AMD trade, but it was pretty notable when you looked at the stock chart today, AMD starting to move lower off that filing.
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C
All right, Mac, thanks. Mackenzie Segalos on amd. Isn't AMD in your acronym?
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A
I don't know if it's a matter amd. I don't know. It's one of them.
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C
I remember they've both been great.
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A
Okay, so now the one. Listen, this goes back to the other thing. Okay, so what, so Nvidia like invest $100 billion in open air. We're just going to keep unpacking this stuff because my brain is broken from this stuff. Right? And then OpenAI does this 6 gigawatt deal with AMD and it's gonna start with 1 gigawatt and they get, you know, 10% of the country company possibly in warrants.
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D
That sort of.
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A
On what planet does that make any sense that if AMD is trying to gain market share from Nvidia, Nvidia, you know, invests in like the biggest thing that's going on in AI is the one in the middle of all those graphs we've seen, you know, all that sort of stuff. And then they go take the money and they do a amd. I mean this is what we're dealing with. And so at some point, I mean this is the Michael Burry thing.
- [21:19]
D
You know, there's a friend of mine I worked, David Todd, who's watching right now from Yale University, brilliant man. And he just texted me and he said there's another a stock that you guys and gals should be talking about. And it's Astera Labs. Pull this one up. It's a lab after the bell. And this is a support tertiary to the whole AI trade. And this is a stock that has not been trading well and in the after hours it's trading even more poorly. So you would think sort of these secondary names will be doing better than they are, but they're not. They're showing weakness around the edges. I think that's one more reason to be concerned.
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F
I think it's interesting. We all live through the dot com boom and bubble of course bursting and what we notice about that time, we would come in every day to the office and stocks would be gapping up day after day very consistently. And the shakeout was what's more memorable to me where the survivors emerged. Right. And we really seen so many stocks participating in this very steep up move as part of the trade that you have to believe that some of them just aren't going to be survivors. So I think that's it's going to be more about quality. I'm not a fundamental analyst, but certainly quality will probably matter more as this trade becomes more mature.
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C
Coming up, more after hours action shares. Acava, Amgen, Rivian. Among the names on the move, the details and the numbers in the quarter's net. And speaking of results, some morning earnings results pushing shares of Pfizer and Uber into the red. Why investors were paring back on these names. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into.
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F
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C
1-800-Flowers.Com sxm that's 1-800-flowers.Com sxm welcome back to Fast Money. We've got an earnings alert on Cava. The stock is dropping after cutting its full year guidance for the second time in a row. The conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. CNBC's Kate Rogers has got the details.
- [24:05]
G
Kate executives sounding broadly optimistic so far on this call as EPS and revenues in line for Kava. But same store sales falling short of analyst estimates. They were up 1.9%. As you mentioned, the company also cutting guidance for full year. Same store sales growth now forecasting it to be up between 3 and 4%. That's down from a prior range of up 4 to 6%. This is the second cut in a row. I spoke with CFO Tricia Tollevar who said regarding that forecast cut quote, we were certainly taking into account the consumer pressures that many are seeing in the industry today. And as we moved into the fourth quarter we saw a bit of a decline in overall demand and wanted to be sure that the forecast reflected that as well as the investments we believe are necessary to run the business and the trends we saw in the third quarter particularly around restaurant level margins. Tolvar also adding there are pressures around the younger consumer. Now I also spoke today to Wingstop CEO Michael Skipworth about that company's earnings. The stock closing up 10% today. Its same store sales did decline more than anticipated. Here's what he had to say about the consumer.
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A
Right now our business over indexes to lower income Hispanic consumer.
- [25:14]
C
And as we move through the third quarter, I think the industry saw that.
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A
Broaden out and consumer trends shift and.
- [25:21]
C
We weren't immune to that.
- [25:22]
A
And so we saw a little bit.
- [25:24]
C
More broadening and in some areas that even reached up into the middle income consumer.
- [25:29]
G
Despite that though, Skip Worth also sounding optimistic about the company's expansion. They're now opening more than one Wingstop globally a day. Melissa, back over to you.
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C
A lot of wings, Kate. Thank you. KATE rogers. Well, why you laugh? It's true.
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D
It's a lot. I mean it's a lot of wings. There's a great commercial with Matt Damon and the soccer guy who I like, what's his name? The good looking guy too. No, David Beckham. We're talking about Buffalo. Somebody in my ear just told me that. Here's, I mean this should come as no surprise. I mean, if you go back and listen to what Chipotle said and when you miss comps and when you miss margins, when you're trading at 74 times next year's numbers, you're going to get punished. And this is the other side of growth. So they can say all they want. Even the full year guide was not particularly good. So the stock will continue to go lower.
- [26:13]
C
This +CMG, those comments from the Wingstop guys, you know, it's, it's concerning.
- [26:19]
B
Yeah, well, this one I've been intrigued by because I did think, you know, the concept is really interesting. The growth is great. I think, you know, hit it on the head with the same store sales. I mean when that metric starts to change, to disappoint, that's really, that's really difficult to keep a very high multiple. And then the margins, the two things that I would think of as the most important sort of heading the wrong way, it's not the right tape for that. So I'll just have to sit and watch and wait longer.
- [26:47]
F
You know, the stocks are in proper downtrend, so it's hard to get excited about them from a tech technical perspective. The wing stop chart, at least you have a gap that was filled. So it suggests that maybe the preceding gap was exhaustive short term. But there are better charts out there.
- [27:03]
C
There's a lot more fast Monday to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [27:08]
A
Uber reversing despite a revenue beat while Pfizer continues to battle in its bid for a weight loss drug maker. The headlines pushing around the rideshare and pharma names, plus filling in the gaps. The stocks that made some big moves after earnings and how their charts are behaving now. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [27:37]
C
The heaviest metal credit card of all.
- [27:40]
F
Time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence. Plated with the very same tungsten that forged the International Space Station.
- [27:51]
C
And wielded.
- [27:52]
F
At business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move. But the real power move having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx.
- [28:06]
C
The new power move at Capella University. Learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn More at capella. Edu. Welcome back to Fast Money. A couple of stocks making moves after this morning's reports. Pfizer down a percent and a half despite beating top and bottom line estimates and raising its full year profit forecast. The pharma name saw sales fall from a year ago. It also locked in a battle with Novo Nordisk to buy weight loss drug maker Met Sarah. So it's raised its bid. Novos raised its bid. Matsera says Novo's bid right now is superior. Mm. How do you feel about this whole thing?
- [28:50]
B
Well, as a Pfizer holder, so the price now will be, I think it's about 50% larger than where they started. Right. That's a little bit concerning. Now Pfizer can afford to do it, Novo can afford to do it. But that, that doesn't mean you necessarily should. Right? I don't know. So, you know, I thought the earnings were good. It actually would manage to trade up a little bit today. I don't know. Novo seems hell bent on getting it.
- [29:17]
C
So as a Novo shareholder, how are you feeling about this?
- [29:20]
B
Good.
- [29:21]
C
Okay.
- [29:22]
B
Right. I'm a shareholder. Both. I'm stupidly. I am not a shareholder.
- [29:28]
C
Sarah.
- [29:28]
B
There you go. I blew it.
- [29:31]
C
How are the charts, Katie?
- [29:33]
F
You know, Pfizer has got a basing phase, I think underway, but it's in no rush to break out, I think. So we'd like to see a little bit more upside, better momentum, but it is promising longer term.
- [29:45]
C
And Uber driving lower today, falling as much as 9.7% despite beating revenue estimates and posting its largest trip volume increase outside the pandemic. The stock closed off its lows, but still saw its worst day since early April. Rival Lyft was down more than 7%. Guy.
- [29:59]
D
Yeah. I don't get this one. I mean, I thought the quarter was beaten, raised, I thought everything looked good. Look at margins, look at overall growth. There's nothing not to like here. Maybe the stock just ran too much or maybe they said something in the call that I missed, but it also stopped dead at the 200 day moving average and bounced. So we've seen moves like this before in Uber for different reasons. I think Uber, I think Uber is going to continue to go higher for the rest of the year.
- [30:21]
C
There might be some scrutiny on spend at this point.
- [30:23]
B
Well, they had a couple of things. They said operations are currently unprofitable. They will be for some time. They talked about Uber 1 memberships that are initially profit negative in the first six months. So there was a couple of things on a day like, like this to not like. But I'm long. I like it.
- [30:40]
F
You know I get a lot of questions about Uber. The stock has a potential outside down week which is usually a short term negative. It also has a counter trend indication from the demarc indicator. So I think this might be a little bit of an off period for it.
- [30:53]
A
It's so interesting the AV so autonomous vehicles. Right. You think that'd be exciting? You know like Robo Taxi at Tesla is going to be a huge thing and the spend there, that's going to be unprofitable for a very long time. But you know what, but let's give them one and a half trillion dollars.
- [31:06]
C
In market Capex is okay until it's not.
- [31:08]
A
Yeah, we learned that. We learned that little sarcasm.
- [31:11]
D
Was that sarcasm?
- [31:13]
C
No, no it was from Dan. Oh yeah. I'm not totally never ever. Coming up, Katie Stockton helps us close the gap on some market questions with her chart analysis. The name she is watching when Fast Money returns Back into.
- [31:29]
B
The.
- [31:32]
A
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [31:45]
C
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks dropping as valuation concerns ripple through the markets. A Dow falling 250 points. The S&P down more than a percent and the Nasdaq leading the losses down more than 2%. Shares of Tesla falling 5% today. Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund saying it will vote against CEO Elon Musk's trillion dollar pay package at the company's shareholder meeting this week. Musk has threatened to step down if the deal is rejected. Norway's wealth fund holds a more than 1% stake in Tesla and some more after hours action. Amgen and riveting Rivian topping earnings and revenue estimates. Pinterest dropping nearly 20% after missing earnings expectations. And Match Group and Live Nation also missing top and bottom line estimates estimates. Meanwhile Oracle dropping almost 4% today in the tech led sell off. The move brings the stock within a stone's throw of where it was before its last earnings report in early September. As we mentioned earlier, it's almost entirely erased. A 35% move higher in less than two months. So that got us thinking what is the significance of these so called gaps in stock patterns? Where to the up or downside? Who better to answer that than Katie Stockton? So the come up already a couple of times during the show Katie, but what we're talking about gaps, what is a gap?
- [32:58]
F
So it's when the price either opens the next day next week higher than where it closed and it simply leaves a vacuum of support or resistance on the chart. They're very, very common around earnings reports or just any kind of news events, you name it. And they can be very informational and even tradable at times. I would say there are two types of gap gaps. There are breakaway gaps and there are exhaustion gaps. So there's a little bit of a trick to determine which is which. Oracle is a great example of what looked like a breakaway gap to the upside in response to earnings. But indeed the stock came right back within that gap in the very next day. And when you tend to see that that sort of gap penetrated within a few days, that tends to be countering indication. Right. So it's suggested then that the Oracle gap was indeed exhaustive. We've seen the same type of exhaustive gap from Microsoft in the past in response to its earnings report. So when you see it come right back into that gap up, that tends to be a negative development. All right.
- [34:01]
C
You have identified some other names we want to really take a look at. Metta is one of them. We talked about Metta, but that's a big gap that we've seen.
- [34:10]
F
It is indeed. And this is a gap down of course on the chart. So this is a little bit different. So what we hope it's not, but it's, it's looking like it might be as a breakaway gap to the downside. So we haven't seen matter come back into the gap from the earnings report and that would be a better scenario. Right. It would suggest that there's a vacuum of resistance to the upside. So we'll be watching the gap for Metta. We'll also be watching any earnings driven gap gaps, including Amazon. Amazon had a gap up and so far is holding that gap as of support. So it depends on whether it's a gap down or gap up and whether or not the stock trades back into that gap immediately.
- [34:50]
C
So going back to matter with the gap lower, what do you want to see? What kind of action do you want to see to make you believe that there is a shot that it will fill that gap?
- [34:58]
F
Right. That it would be more of an exhaustion gap. Right. That would be opportunity to counter trend meta. So we want to see it inch back up into the gap and by that, the day that a gap gaps down, it's the high print of that day that we want to reference because that then becomes potential resistance on the chart to the sort of flip side, if it was a gap up, we're looking at the low of that Day and that becomes the so called potential support. So for Amazon we want to see that support hold at the low print from the gap up day and then we'll reverse that for Meta. We want to see that high print exceeded if we're interested in adding exposure.
- [35:35]
D
I looked at in Amazon we have two gaps in the chart. And you know, Katie can speak to this, but you're setting up, given what we saw today, for what we rarely see but one of these island reversals. So maybe you can speak to that.
- [35:48]
F
So an island reversal is really an interesting pattern. We don't often see them and you could argue that we actually have kind of a lot of them after today. Right. Where you see a gap up, it proves to be an exhaustion gap and that the stock or security comes back in very quickly and then gaps down. It leaves a little floating consolidation phase. Usually only days in the making and it does tend to be a short term negative development.
- [36:13]
C
We've talked on this show about, you know, if there's a big move in a stock to just don't touch it for a bit, technically speaking, does that make sense or is there a scenario in which you would just jump right back in?
- [36:25]
F
Yeah, I mean if you see Meta for one come back up into its gap, that would be the impetus to say, okay, well the gap was overdone. And we have seen that maybe that Wingstop chart is a good example of it where we had a gap down into support and then it filled it within days. Well, that's actually kind of intriguing.
- [36:44]
C
Are there gaps on your radar that you're saying are looking promising at this point?
- [36:48]
F
Yeah, I would say Amazon is the one to keep an eye on here near term because. Because that obviously has a market impact on sentiment as well. And it was a great earnings reaction, took out final resistance, lifted to new highs, left a gap in its wake. And as long as that gap based support can hold for Amazon, I would say that's a positive.
- [37:07]
C
Yeah, Dan. Yeah, I know you're going to poke holes and that's a you that you're like been, you've been the whole poker the whole night. Basically I trade. And Amazon is just the latest with its open air deal making that new high.
- [37:22]
A
If all this stuff happens, it's going to be amazing deal for us, you know what I mean? I just think that at some point though, when you get all of this, you know, capacity online and if it happens over the next five years or so, I think there's going to be some compression in pricing. I think it's going to become a very hyper competitive place. The margins that a lot of these companies have enjoyed, I mean this is one of the knocks on these companies. Oracle's margins on this clock cloud business going to be horrible. And at some point they're going to be putting a lot of pressure on some of these incumbents. So, you know, I just think you can price it all in right now or you can actually have a measured approach to it. All these gaps will be filled. This AMD gap eventually will be filled just like the Oracle one because all of it is on the come right now. And that's just not something that works in a market like this, in my opinion, because I don't know how much better it can get right now.
- [38:08]
C
Coming up, Big Plays and big properties. An exclusive look at where major capital is flowing in commercial real estate. The names making deals, deals what they're buying and what they're not. That's when he's back into welcome back to Fast money, Big Plays and Big Properties. New exclusive data tracking commercial real estate sales across the US and there are some notable names making the biggest buys. Diana Olek is here with the Property Play Commercial Real Estate Deal Report. Diana? Well, Melissa, our new deal report tracks the top 50 CRE property sales across the US with monthly data provided by Moody's. And it's showing that dealmaking is now stalled at well below pre Covid levels, with the overall dollar volume in Q3 growing just 5% from last year. One of the big trends in September, a flight to quality. You see that in the average dollar size of sales which rose to $12.7 million compared with the average of 11.2 million over the last two years. Of the 50 top deals closed, 29 were over $100 million. Now the volume of $100 million plus deals in Q3 was up 35% over last year. Then where did we see the heat? It was in office and retail. Apple spent 365 million on an office property portfolio and Nvidia spent 83 million on a single office building, both in California. Meanwhile, MetLife got a roughly 39% discount deal on an office property also in California. We know there are barg out there in office now on retail. Both Tanger and Nuveen did $100 million plus deals in open air retail, a sector that's really starting to see some heat. What is not hot is the hotel sector deals are dropping off due to uncertainty in the economy. Now there's much more in this real estate deal report in the Property Play newsletter. You won't see it anywhere else. So go to cnbc.com propertyplay or just hit that QR code. Melissa. Really interesting stuff. Diana, thank you so much. Diana Olek, to the extent that we can extrapolate this onto the broader economy and or where we are seeing the heat and what the various companies are doing, that's interesting.
- [40:23]
D
It is. It's very interesting. And by the way, what this is a tease. We'll have Stephen Yalov on Tomorrow of Tanger tanker. Yes. So we'll ask him that specific question. Pay attention.
- [40:32]
C
Skt.
- [40:33]
D
But with that said, if you know when things are starting to slow now, starting to see a stall, is that a leading indicator, lagging? I happen to think it's a leading indicator. We'll see.
- [40:39]
C
All right. We've got some breaking news on NASA. Steve Kovac's got the details. Steve?
- [40:43]
F
Hey there, Melissa.
- [40:44]
C
Yeah. President Donald Trump is re nominating Jared Eisenman to be the administrator of NASA. You might remember a couple months ago he withdrew that nomination in part due some reports that he was a Democratic donor. Well, now, and in the meantime, we've.
- [40:58]
A
Had Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy running that organization. But President Trump just posting to True.
- [41:04]
C
Social that he is re nominating Jared Isaac, man. So presumably he'll go through that process.
- [41:10]
A
In the coming weeks now.
- [41:11]
C
All right, Steve, thanks. Steve kovac. Coming up, high energy charting. We've hit the gaps but now Katie is looking at support and resistance in oil technicals where she sees energy stocks heading next. More fast MONEY into Welcome back to FAST money. Oil prices have been under pressure all year with this week's move lower coming amid concerns of oversupply energy stocks falling in sympathy. Marathon Baker Hughes, Williams Companies among the biggest laggards today. But one of our traders points out to recent outperformance of the oil services stock in particular says the trend may continue. So Katie, what are you seeing in the charts here?
- [41:51]
F
It is interesting. So crude oil prices have been trending lower and they're still very close to recent lows. But there's very strong support in the mid-50s per barrel and we're seeing a loss of downside momentum as that downtrend has persisted. So we feel that if crude oil prices or futures can climb above their 50 day moving average, right around $62 per barrel, that would be a nice catalyst for this space. Already we have seen rotations into the energy complex, especially oil services. So if we look at OIH as a proxy for the space, the reversal is evident already in the ratio of OIH to the S&P 500 cleared the 200 day moving average after a basing phase after having broken below at about two years ago. So we're compelled by this. It's early stage but it does have the potential to continue meaning more outperformance at least in the coming weeks by the energy sector. A couple examples of good names in that space that have basing phases of their own. Slb, Halliburton to heavyweights. Both have advanced off of kind of trading ranges that followed big cyclical down moves and that's when we start to get interested from a technical perspective.
- [43:03]
B
Yeah, Karen, I like it.
- [43:05]
C
Yes, of course some letter in my.
- [43:07]
B
Thing, I don't know which one but I like. I mean SLB and Halliburton I think together about 25% of the OIH. I have like this for a very long time meaning early and wrong but I'm sticking with it. I do like it.
- [43:21]
C
It is the Ian carved. Yes. Sandy can say yes. Yeah, for energy, I mean obvious. I don't know why you tell me that.
- [43:29]
D
Anyway guy, SLB has been in a downtrend since August of 2023. It seemingly is now making a bearish to bullish reversal. And if you can get a close above 37 and a half that lower lows and lower highs has been broken. I think it goes higher from here. I'm with Katie and Karen.
- [43:45]
C
Where is the chart on oil itself Katie?
- [43:47]
F
So we're hovering right below the 50 day moving average but above that long term sell support. We had an oversold reading over the springtime on the monthly chart. So again early stages but sometimes energy can work also if we get into a weaker equity environment. We saw that certainly in 22. So if you are bearish on the S&P 500 you don't necessarily have to also be bearish on energy.
- [44:12]
C
Thank you Katie. Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Katie Stockton.
- [44:33]
F
I'll go with SLB just to play that basing phase.
- [44:36]
C
Thank you for being with us. Katie Fairlead. Karen Feinerman. Yes.
- [44:40]
B
So I was struck by the merger Mondayness of yesterday. That's great for investment banks. I like Morgan Stanley.
- [44:47]
C
Dan.
- [44:47]
A
Yeah, CME Group was acting really well back in April with all that volatility. If we have a Vix above 20 and we start seeing markets move around again I suspect CME will be much better.
- [44:58]
D
During the show saying was a special evening. Can we, can we show why this is a special evening? And look we have our cute little balloons here and everything. Happy birthday to Melissa Lee. Look at that. We got a big balloon.
- [45:10]
C
There it is.
- [45:11]
D
We got cupcakes.
- [45:12]
C
Happy Birthday.
- [45:14]
D
Am I allowed to say the number or no?
- [45:15]
C
You gotta 101.
- [45:18]
D
Yay.
- [45:19]
A
Big wish there. Look at that.
- [45:22]
C
Thank you guys.
- [45:25]
A
That's Natalie, by the way.
- [45:26]
C
That's Natalie.
- [45:27]
D
Hello, Natalie.
- [45:27]
B
You nailed that Uber.
- [45:29]
D
That's how Mel and Karen get home tonight together for her birthday.
- [45:32]
C
That is true. Thank you for watching Fast Money. Thanks for the birthday wishes. Mad Money with June Kramer star right now.
- [45:38]
B
Happy Birthday, Mel.
- [45:39]
F
Happy Birthday.
- [45:46]
C
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.