
Goldman Sachs surging to fresh records as earnings top estimates, while some Mag7 stocks continue to struggle against the broader market. So will the big bank keep bumping, or can the big tech trouble make a turnaround? Plus the weight loss drug wars are heating up, with focus turning to the GLP-1 pill. The latest data from one pharma company, and what the CEO sees in store for the company as competition continues to climb. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
Large in the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, a semi surge results from one key chip maker helping boost the entire group. What to say about the state of the air trade and is it too late to get in? We'll debate that in crypto crunch to keep bill on regulation hitting a major roadblock in Capitol Hill. What happened and what's it mean for the future of the industry? Plus digging in on the moves in the yen. The CEO of Structure Therapeutics gives us the latest in the GLP1 race. And Steve and Carter ready to lay out their 2026 acronyms. One's a bit of a puzzle. The other might be heading for retirement. We'll explain later on this hour. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, Steve Grasso and Guy Adami. And we'll get to the moving chips in just a minute. But we will start with the ultimate game.
Tim Seymour
Oh boy.
Melissa Lee
And I mean ultimate boy of would you rather. Of course. Goldman Sachs surging to new records on the back of earnings this morning. Shares of the investment banking giant have gained more than 11 ready this year. Meanwhile, the Mag 7 has largely struggled in 2026 with only Alphabet and Amazon outpacing the broader market. Meta, Microsoft, Apple, all down 5% or more this year. So even though mega cap tech has helped indices get to record highs, would you rather Goldman Sachs or the Mag 7? It's an interesting question, Guy.
Guy Adami
How long have we been doing this show for?
Melissa Lee
Oh, you know, 19 years.
Guy Adami
Last week was 19 years.
Carter Worth
This is the first, this is the.
Guy Adami
First time we've ever had this. Would you rather a Goldman Sachs versus a Mag 7?
Melissa Lee
It's a stock that is performing and.
Steve Grasso
The first time in the A block.
Melissa Lee
Wins at firsts versus a big part of the market that had been growth.
Guy Adami
I'll play your reindeer game because I like doing this. You know with 17, 18% EPS growth I think despite the move Goldman Sachs is still a stock that's going to perform. And look, I'm not going to play which one of the Mag 7 I don't like but in the aggregate I think Goldman can outperform them in 26 valuation is not ridiculously stretched and the world is sort of lining up for exactly what they do. So my answer is GS Well I.
Tim Seymour
Boy, I'll just take the other side just because I should take the other side.
Melissa Lee
Now you can, you can agree with guys, here's what I think.
Tim Seymour
I think the news flow is for the banks is, is extraordinary right now and that's everything from the macro. I mean macro in terms of DC I mean macro in terms of the economy. It terms macro in terms of the yield curve. You know, you listen to DJ Solid Goldman's telling you that actually it's going to be another incredible year in terms of what I think is probably only begun to, to really spread its wings which is the investment banking in the capital markets business which I think, you know, it feels like it's been a bonanza, it's going to be a bigger bonanza and especially given there's some sense, I think there's some sense of urgency to get as much done in the next 18 months as possible and for whatever that means, whether that's going to go away poof or not. Yield curve steeper dynamics with D Reg the fact that banks have predictable earnings flow and the fact that banks can give capital back means there's a lot of people that want to own banks for different reasons than they could for a long time. I just think if we look at Microsoft and if we look at, you know, for the better part Metta and even Amazon and Apple, these are names that have done nothing for a year and I still find it hard to believe that the earnings growth that they've given us and supported. So I'm going to take the other side. Even though I get why we're doing this. We would you rather today? It's fascinating and I think it does make some sense.
Melissa Lee
I mean Solomon effectively said that parties are rushing to do their deals because there's as you Said sort of a feeling of got to get it done well while the environment perfect time here and barring a big macro sort of event, things are going to be great this year. That's what he said.
Steve Grasso
Yeah. I think M and A for all the reasons Tim just laid out and got laid out. I think I would go with Goldman.
Melissa Lee
Wow. Three so far I would go with.
Steve Grasso
Goldman because I think I took the other side.
Tim Seymour
I hedged it very well. But I mean I basically said I think that the Mag 7s have underperformed so much and the move Goldman's had the charts. Tell me you went with Goldman Sachs.
Steve Grasso
So you took the other side. So you went with Max up. Yeah, I'm going with Gold. I'm going same side. It's amazing how confused the three of us got on this.
Guy Adami
I wasn't confused.
Tim Seymour
Not really.
Steve Grasso
I wasn't really confused.
Melissa Lee
I guess it was my own confusion. I apologize.
Steve Grasso
I was trying to give cover to Tim. Tim seem confused. I would go with M and A. I would go with D Ray. I would go with that aspect of it. I think the Mag 7 in large part commoditized business, those prices do come down. I think we're in for prices coming down, revenues come down, earnings come down.
Melissa Lee
Cloud prices for what?
Steve Grasso
Yeah, chips. I think that chips will come down. I think prices.
Melissa Lee
Chips.
Steve Grasso
I think prices for chips will come down. I think prices for cloud will come down. I think as a whole you're seeing peak pricing in MAG7 names that are involved in cloud.
Carter Worth
Well, obviously very different and as guy said this might be the most extraordinary.
Tim Seymour
Ricardo's coming onto my team.
Carter Worth
I've seen sort of. Would you rather. But here's the thing. It's not about Goldman. That's the status quo. Yes, right. It's about one thing. This is a highly cyclical business versus the growths that are implied in the. In the true marquee growth names that otherwise called mag7 and that ilk. We know that Goldman in oh7 made almost $25 a share. In an oh9 it made 4. That's called cyclicality that you're never going to see in mature growth stocks in the tech specter. So it really gets down to one thing. If we are heading into any sort of contraction or period of economic softness or volatility or or the leverage that can go the wrong way implied in any financial institution, then by definition it's tech. And if that doesn't happen, the better bet is to just ride the ride with Goldman.
Melissa Lee
Okay, well that's funny. Mentals yeah, it's kind of.
Carter Worth
But no, charts and fundamentals.
Tim Seymour
Same thing.
Carter Worth
Remember I started as a fundamental strategist at the highest level possible. Right. And then I realized that was nonsense. So then I went over the charts.
Tim Seymour
Exactly.
Carter Worth
But I can still talk about them like everybody else.
Melissa Lee
So what, do the charts correspond with that view?
Carter Worth
Yes. Because guess what's acting better now? Let's talk about the charts. Just the charts. Which behaves, which player on the field right now is acting better.
Tim Seymour
There's no question.
Carter Worth
There's no question. Goldman Sachs.
Melissa Lee
Goldman Sachs.
Carter Worth
Thank you. That was straightforward. Yep.
Melissa Lee
Okay, so there you have it. But I'm glad you distilled this. Would you rather into these sort of bigger issues? Which is why we pose the question and that is, you know, do you go with the highly cyclical. Right. Leverage the economy or do you go with the group that, that has this growth trajectory? And also do you believe in that growth trajectory still? I mean there's question marks about this trade. Now in terms of the investment. You see it in today's trade, TSM comes out, great guidance, great quarter, etc. Who wins? Picks and shovels. Not Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Apple.
Steve Grasso
And he was questioning it. He was questioning the trade. He was questioning the 52 to 56 billion dollars investment in CapEx because it takes two to three years to build a fab. So he's, he, right now he's worried about an oversupply of chips in AI and he's worried about the demand two to three years out because that's TMC's wheelhouse.
Tim Seymour
Okay, so because I'm the one guy that made this a good segment because in fact I took the other side.
Steve Grasso
It would have been everybody, Tim, for.
Tim Seymour
Everybody on the other side of the boat. I'm just going to argue that there's nothing commoditized about any of their businesses. You think MET has got a commoditized business? You think Google's got to come out?
Melissa Lee
I don't.
Tim Seymour
I don't either. So I'm just.
Steve Grasso
Any CHIPS is a commoditized business. But those, those two are not.
Tim Seymour
I hear Mag seven. I don't think there's seven Chips video.
Steve Grasso
Nvidia dominated Max seven. But, but I hear you.
Tim Seymour
Go ahead.
Carter Worth
But given that the whole thing is determined by something that would be exogenous. Right. That would affect Goldman. These investment banks have matured, if you will, to the point where they're much better risk managers. Right. So you're not going to get that kind of drawdown typically in the earnings stream Unless something truly exogenous would happen, which would bring down everything. Everything. And then the question is, would the beta implied in the financials just make them go down more than the growth stocks? And you would have to say that's the case.
Tim Seymour
And if you truly believe. Sorry. That they are. They are better risk managers than they've ever been. And I think there's an argument for that. There's no question about it.
Melissa Lee
The cash on the balance sheet for all of these banks make them sort of more.
Tim Seymour
They've had to be. They've had to be. But. But what usually happens when you have some type of a pullback? I mean, there's no question that there's always leverage in the system in places you don't expect it. And there's certainly exposure that these banks have. It's not pure and clean and easy. The businesses that we're talking about that were on display today, this week were sales and trading. Sales and trading on some level has become more of a riskless business. It doesn't mean that they're taking. They're not taking positions, but I think that's part of the reason why it's an exciting time for these banks.
Guy Adami
Sorry, guy, you're 100% right. And if there were to be a downturn in the tech stocks, oddly. Well, not oddly enough, I think Goldman actually wins to that for the exact reason Tim just talked about. Their sales and trading business will continue to do well, which they're now, by the way, being rewarded for for years. They're not worrying being penalized for it. But they were not getting the valuation on the back of fixed income currency.
Melissa Lee
So we are talking about a rerating. I mean, if anybody is saying that these bank stocks are expensive, what you all are saying implies a rerating of.
Tim Seymour
The stocks already happened.
Tom Michaud
It's.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, yeah, yes, yes. But it's a valid, durable rerating, I guess I should say.
Tim Seymour
I think so. And again, which then means you might want to look to the regional banks which haven't rerated the same way that the Money Centers have, you know, but.
Guy Adami
Like, you know, would be great to get on the show, be like a banker that's immersed in these types of things.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, you think so?
Guy Adami
That can speak intelligently about.
Melissa Lee
Today's your lucky day. It's like Christmas here on Fast Money. For more, let's bring in Tom Michaud. He is the CEO of kbw, a Stifel company. He's that guy. Exactly. I'm going to start off with what Tim had posited and that is regionals over the money centers. Now for the difference in performance, would you go with that? Given where we are?
Tom Michaud
I would. That is actually one of our calls for this year. We would agree with Tim.
Tim Seymour
Right.
Tom Michaud
Again, historically the regionals have traded at a premium to the bigger banks, but the bigger banks frankly have gotten better. So they used to trade it, like I said, at a premium. Now they've been at a 20% discount to the bigger banks. And we believe that that gap is going to close. But that doesn't mean the bigger banks won't do well. We think the regional banks are going to catch up. You even already see it. S and p is up 1 1/2 percent. Ish. The big banks are up 3 year to date and the smaller banks, regional banks are up 6. So that that sort of movement is already underway this year.
Guy Adami
And M and A in a space Tom, you talked about, I think the last time you hear. But you're going to see it in spades in 26, which we are now just beginning. So speak to the tail when that.
Tom Michaud
Well, I heard the discussion earlier. The way I would describe it is you're on the clock. You know, I think a lot of, a lot of corporate America feels like they're on the clock and so especially financials because the stark difference in the regulatory approach from the prior administration, this one is so wide that you feel like if you want to do something, you should do it right now. And also, you know, stocks are an all time high. Ish. We've got an economy that's going well. So there are a lot of good reasons to take action.
Melissa Lee
Now what kind of how do you think about the exposure of particularly the money center banks to the AI boom when it comes to the debt that they're helping to underwrite, the money that they're lending directly? I mean, should we be concerned if we're worried about an AI bubble? What is the extrapolation back to these banks?
Tom Michaud
Well, look, first of all, one of the, one of the potential negatives is that the industry is over earning on credit. Right now we're thinking that charge offs are around 25 basis points. I mean that could be 35 or 40 basis points pretty quickly. So credit has been one of the really bullish parts of the story. But it could normalize. Right, but, but the banks. So I'm sure along the way someone may hit a bump in the road. But, but the banks are still pretty cautious I believe, I don't believe they've changed their risk metrics much. So, so Private credit has been willing to step in more where there's more leverage involved. That doesn't mean that a bank might not make a mistake. But I think the industry has been tried to sharpen their pencil and, and stay pretty conservative.
Tim Seymour
So Tom, that's, that's fascinating. So, because much in the way after the financial crisis it seemed like the, the, the credit issues were transferred from the private sector to the public sector. At least the balance sheets were cleaned up, given to the public sector to then deal with it. I think a money center banks is kind of the public sector. What you're now saying is that there's a lot more hair in the private sector. Does that mean, and I don't hear you saying you see a major bubble or problem coming, but does it mean that there needs to be more regulation there at a time when there's less regulation everywhere else? I mean, is it, is the private credit world getting a little bit over its skis?
Tom Michaud
I, I mean I think there'll be winners and losers in both categories. I mean there are some really fantastic non bank players. So I think like you have one on this week, you'll have winners and losers all around. But, but I think there's an. I heard you talk about rerating for bank stocks earlier. Right. I think we're in a jet notwithstanding the 10% credit card cap. We'll put that aside. But when you look at the big stuff that's happening, we are in a generational moment of deregulation, which is two things. One is since the global financial crisis, regulators use perimeter regulation. Banks can and can't do things. They also regulated banks by asset size. It's now switching to. They're going to, they're going to regulate the business model and they're willing to take innovation into the system. I think that means that banks are going to level the playing field a little bit with the competitors. You said not all the way. I think banks are going to be able to be on their front foot, foot more. And so I think the playing field is going to level which could allow these banks to continue to re rate higher.
Melissa Lee
Is there any concern though about this deregulatory tailwind given some of the proposals the administration has come out with recently highlighting affordability, particularly you mentioned the credit card rate cap for instance.
Tom Michaud
So there's something else.
Melissa Lee
There's a fine line here.
Tom Michaud
Just as somebody who's been doing this for a long time, I used to think that the political season got hot in a midterm year in July. Well, assume it's January this year and it's game on. I mean, the number of proposals you're hearing, whether it's defense companies not paying dividends or it's the governor of New York saying insurance companies should reward profits back to their policyholders, you're going to see a lot of progressive proposals all around. And the question is how much of it is the market going to believe? I think the primary reason why the bank stocks did poorly earlier in the week was I would say it's two parts, the credit card cap, 10%, maybe it was one part. The traders really had a lot of momentum into them before the earnings. And while the earnings were really good, maybe they weren't good enough. So but it was but also it's the macro issues of the election season. So I think there's, there's a chance for that for investors. You're going to see a lot more proposals. All I can say is that if it takes an act of Congress, it takes a long time to happen and there'll be lots of chance to debate it. And a credit card cap, for example, is one of those things we believe.
Melissa Lee
Tom, great to see you as always. Thank you. TOM michaud, KBW thank you for on the bank trade.
Steve Grasso
Yeah. So regionals, I think this is the time to be in regionals. The smaller banks and if you look at credit cards, credit cards have a 5% impact to portfolios on regional banks. Balance sheet commercial real estate is a lot bigger input for that. So that credit wall that, that rate wall that we talked about last night on the show, I think has a bigger impact. And as long as we can mitigate that, they've outperformed by 500 basis points. The larger banks, I think you stay regional.
Melissa Lee
How do regions look versus moneycenter?
Carter Worth
Well, that's the temptation. It's, it's trade. Let me, let me put in the comments. The KRE is relatively new, only has history back to 2006. There is something called the NASDAQ Bank Index and it goes back to 1976, 2676. It has 250 names versus the carry at 120. If you look at the NASDAQ Bank Index and its relative performance to the Russell 2000, which is the small cap, it is at 50 year lows. So the question is, is this, can you catch it for a trade or catch carry? But it's not a good area to make money. Regional banks are the simple most at risk. You manage it wrong, you go upside down. We've had the Esnol crisis We've had all sorts of. And also remember, what was that thing about a year and a half ago where everyone just put their phone, withdraw the money? Was that thing. Remember that run? Yeah, yeah. I mean, so a trade. Yes, but as an investment, 50 year lows, small cap banks to the small cap index.
Melissa Lee
But some of the regionals, maybe the ones that you're talking about are not necessarily small cap stocks. They are.
Tim Seymour
They're not small caps at all. They're 20, 30, $40 billion companies that are unrelated and yeah, those are super regional, super regions. Yeah, look, but I just, I think this rerating has been going on for two years. It didn't just happen. And part of this began when banks were able to start giving more capital back. And I think that's such a big part of this. Buybacks and divs, they're only going higher.
Melissa Lee
All right, meantime, Taiwan semi shares jumping after the chipmaker said earnings grew by 35% in its latest quarter. Said it expects to increase spending this year. The move helping names like asml, Nvidia and AMD post outsized gains today. The US And Taiwan also announcing that Taiwanese chip and tech companies will spend at least 250 billion to boost U.S. production capacity in exchange for relief on tariffs. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was on power lunch earlier to talk about the deal.
Tom Michaud
The objective is to bring 40% of.
Carter Worth
Taiwan's entire supply chain and production to.
Tom Michaud
Domestically, bring it into America.
Carter Worth
And here's the.
Tom Michaud
During President Trump's term, this is fire right now.
Melissa Lee
That would be extraordinarily fast in terms of the timeline for construction.
Guy Adami
Three years left. I mean, I don't know how they make that timeline, but it's ambitious. You got to be ambitious. So good for them if they pull it off. I don't think they will. But you mentioned ASML, which reports, I believe on the 28th. I mean, pull up a chart of this stock. You got a huge move today, but it's on the back of a number of huge moves. Now this is a stock that I think. Not that valuation matters. And Carter will say it's not a timing tool. It's gotten itself a little expensive in earnings. It got the bump today. I don't know if it gets another bump in the back of earnings.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Does this reinforce the notion that it's a picks and shovels that are going to be the winners at least for the year, for the now, until. Until the ROI is proven?
Tim Seymour
I think it reinforces the demand in the space. I'm not ready to say that. You know the leaders in technology and innovation are washed up. I mean Taiwan semi has been in this place for a long time. People just happen to know the company now. But for for 20 years this is what they've been doing. They've been white labeling for the rest of the world. I think you know decisive capex fantastic margins are showing that this commoditized business is also becoming more profitable than ever. So I think this is a demand story. I think it's reinforced I'm very long tsmc well it's interesting.
Carter Worth
I think the most immediate thing is how well the equal weight SOX index is doing compared to the actual weight and that's of course because in video has been dragging. But what we do know is a very cyclical area of the market and semis only in the past six to eight months have recouped all their relative losses since the dot com peak and semis relative to the tech sector peaked in 94.
Melissa Lee
So coming up, the next move for Bitcoin as a key crypto bill stands in limbo. Why the coinbase CEO pulled his support and the changes he needs to see before backing it. Plus turning up the volume and the prices, the price hike coming for Spotify customers and how it's become the most costly way to get your Taylor Swift or Bad Bunny fix didn't go anywhere Fast money's back in two.
Tom Michaud
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money Shares a Coinbase and Robinhood sinking today after the Senate Banking Committee postponed a vote on the long awaited crypto regulation bill. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong polled his support at the 11th hour. Emily Wilkins spoke with him earlier today. She joins us now with the latest. Emily.
Emily Wilkins
A Melissa will look, one senator told me today that there were a thousand cuts that killed this vote today on the crypto bill and Armstrong's tweet was the 1000th. But Armstrong's tweet, it hit on a lot of the issues that senators are struggling to resolve with this bill, main among them this battle over whether crypto exchanges can offer rewards to stablecoin holders, much in the same way that banks offer their customers things like interest. Now, banking groups have said that allowing certain rewards will mean billions less in bank deposits and less lending ability. But Armstrong told me that he thinks crypto groups should be able to make loans as well.
Guy Adami
I think the high level principle here is that we can't really have banks.
Ray Stevens
Come in and try to kill their competition at the expense of the American consumer.
Emily Wilkins
In addition to the banking issue, Armstrong wants to see language removed that would banned the tokenization of equities. And other lawmakers tell me that they're going to need to see some ethics language that could limit how lawmakers and the president can profit from crypto. So a long way to go still. Melissa but negotiations are continuing. This thing is not quite dead yet.
Melissa Lee
All right, Emily, thank you. Emily wilkins, we certainly saw crypto run up into this until Armstrong pulled a support.
Steve Grasso
Steve yeah, I think the takeaway is you're going to see a bill with better language for the crypto community. So it's, it's net net. I think it's a buy longer term for cryptos and it's obvious the banks don't want to see those deposits be drawn out and sit on on a crypto base. So this is direct competition. But I think judging by they squashed the bill because it didn't have his support. A crypto backer support, Crypto CEO support. You're looking for a much better bill going forward, which is much better for crypto.
Guy Adami
You look at Coinbase, it's almost down 50% since. Since the high of last summer, which is extraordinary, except that it's happened before, twice before in the last couple of years, and each time it's bounced back. It's off cycle in the report. I think the report mid February soon have that as a catalyst. But I think this is just me. I think you're looking to start to build a long position in Coinbase here.
Carter Worth
Pair two is for me. Yeah. Coinbase don't really like that.
Tim Seymour
I would. I would say it's a pair of jacks.
Melissa Lee
I mean, is that better than a pair of twos?
Tim Seymour
What do you think? Obviously, you don't play poker.
Melissa Lee
It's better, right? I mean, pair of jacks.
Tim Seymour
We're rolling the bones here. I mean, I just.
Melissa Lee
I also know what you're talking about.
Tim Seymour
I said what I said, okay. There's nothing more to it. I realize there are other things that go on sometimes in the show. I think tokenization firms, a lot of them believe that this bill is good and affirms their core business. I think at the end of the day, CFTC is going to be very involved. And more regulation means it goes higher.
Melissa Lee
There is a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
Tom Michaud
Pop music, podcasts and price hikes. What's weighing on shares of Spotify today? And should investors turn down the volume on the music streamer? Plus, weight loss, drug competition heating up. What one pharma CEO sees in store for the space as the race to bring GLP1 pills to market heats up. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks rebounding today after posting back to back losses. The dow jumping nearly 300 points. The s and P and Nasdaq both climbing about a quarter of a percent. Crude getting crushed today. WTI settling down four and a half percent after President Trump signaled the unrest in Iran seems to be cooling off and shares a Spotify 4% lower today. Analysts at Jefferies lowering their price target on the stock to 750. That's down from 800 but maintaining a buy rating. The music streamer also announcing price hikes for US Premium subscriptions, making it the most expensive major music streamer out there. I know that you guys were hot on oil in the Call today. So where do you see it going at this point?
Guy Adami
Commodity I don't think goes really anywhere. I mean it's sort of status quo. It's been that way for a while. I mean it goes up and down a couple of bucks. But here we are. The same price has been for the last six months. The equities are a completely different story. You know, Carter can speak to the charts and Tim has been talking about it, but I think that energy stocks across the board, services, refiners, big cap integrated go higher in 26.
Melissa Lee
What do you think?
Carter Worth
Agreed. So the service names all came to life earlier and now the big integrators are catching up. It's still a very small sector, less than 3%. But look what can happen. Materials have come to life aggressively. You see this in truckers, a lot of chemical names. The cyclicality Alcoa is a triple off the bottom. The cyclicality implied in this kind of thing can always come over to the energy space and you can get a.
Melissa Lee
Lot more we got a news alert here on OpenAI. Kate Rooney's got the details. Hey, Kate.
Emily Wilkins
Hi, Melissa. So I just got a hold of an OpenAI investor investor letter that was sent out this afternoon. It's addressed here to investors and to bankers. The company reporting in this record high chat usage, both weekly active, daily actives hitting an all time high they say in January. Momentum also around Codex. That's a system that can write code for you. Essentially it's roughly up 25% week over week comes as anthropic cloud code is getting a lot of buzz out here and there's some competition there. Finally a legal update on the ongoing lawsuit with Elon Musk. From Elon Musk, OpenAI leadership telling investors it feels quote confident in its legal defenses, believes the case is worth no more than $38 million that Musk had previously donated when he was a founder of OpenAI says that outcome isn't guaranteed though they do warn investors to expect what they call attention grabbing claims from Musk as that trial approaches. It's set for April. They do reiterate that have used the lawsuit to as baseless. OpenAI did decline to comment on the letter mail.
Melissa Lee
Again Kate, though this is to investors as well as bankers and bankers.
Emily Wilkins
Interesting that it's to both as we people have been speculating about a potential ipo but clearly they're right now in conversations with bankers.
Melissa Lee
All right, Kate, thanks.
Tim Seymour
Kate Rooney who writes a letter to investors and bankers.
Melissa Lee
I don't know. I mean that's the first thing that.
Tim Seymour
Jumped out of me. Very nice to have it slip out.
Melissa Lee
You know, I mean especially when Claude Code is getting a lot of the buzz. This guy I know.
Tim Seymour
No, no, no, no, no.
Guy Adami
I'm all about Claude Code. I like that you two are in alignment with that. You were in shutter sense.
Melissa Lee
What in terms of the bankers and the investors. Strange.
Guy Adami
Now I've never such a thing and you both were bright to bring it.
Tim Seymour
Up but great reporting by Kate. It's not, it's not an implication on that.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, small molecules and big opportunities. The CEO of Structure Therapeutics joins us straight from the JP Morgan Health care conference to discuss this company's weight loss pill portfolio as competition stiffens in the obesity space. Fast money's back right after this.
Tom Michaud
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Eli lilly dropping almost 4% for the stock's worst day since August. The FDA delaying a decision on whether to approve Lilly's obesity pill until April 10. This, according to Reuters, though no reason was cited for the lag. We should note that this was going to achieve fast approval because of the national priority voucher. But a lot of the other candidates for these vouchers, they were also delayed. So this is part of a broader picture here. Lilly, I know, is not in either of your acronyms. NOVO is in junk. Novo is in yours as well. So Timbo.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, it would be Tinbow, but it could be.
Melissa Lee
But you own.
Tim Seymour
If I wanted to break the rules of play the way Karen does, I could call Timbo a name and I could swap it Tim Bond, I could.
Melissa Lee
Anyway. You own novo.
Tim Seymour
I own novo, and I don't need it in an acronym to be excited about it. And I think with Eli Lilly, again, I think there's been a dynamic where the news flow has actually been a little bit of the changing of the guard. It doesn't change the leadership and certainly what seems to be kind of the pricing and margin position. But again, and I'll leave this to Carter, because you know, that chart on Lilly kind of ran out of gas a couple of months ago and today it broke through that 200. So, I mean, if you're, if you're, if you're, excuse me, the 50, and if you're looking for at least some change in character, we may have started to get that over the last couple of weeks, even though I don't think this news flow is any, I don't think the market was that surprised.
Melissa Lee
Is it out of gas?
Carter Worth
Well, remember, it ran out of gas in 24, and so did Novo, but then it recovered and Novo just kept bombing out. I like Novo here of the two.
Melissa Lee
All right. Well, Structure Therapeutics is another hopeful entrant into the obesity pill space. Shares have soared 146% since December 8, when the company came out with data on its small molecule oral GLP1 showing a weight loss profile that's competitive with pills from Lilly and Novo. The company, which is nearing $6 billion in market value, has also been closely watched as a potential M and A target for more. Structure Therapeutics CEO Ray Stevens joins us now. Ray, welcome back to fast. Thanks for joining us.
Ray Stevens
Thank you, Melissa. It's great to be here from the San Francisco studio this time.
Melissa Lee
Yes, exactly. Your stock has had quite a run. And I'm not just talking about last year. I mean, this week alone, the Stock is up 24% so far. And a lot of that is on this M and A buzz. Earlier reports indicate that Merck at a dinner from the JPMorgan Health Care Conference had indicated interest in small molecule oral GLP1s Novo has indicated that it wants to do deals to expand its obesity portfolio. And your stock each time went higher. Is that the correct interpretation? Are you a target?
Ray Stevens
We don't comment as a company policy in terms of market speculation or rumors. What I do think is being here at JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, there was a lot of activity, a lot of discussions that were taking place with an annual market between 100 and $150 billion. That's an area that many different pharmaceutical companies are looking at this very carefully. And it's not just that it affects obesity. It's that it impacts cardiovascular, liver disease, chronic kidney disease, even certain parts of oncology. And so there's a lot of interest in the obesity space this way. And the adjacencies that we see as well.
Melissa Lee
You must have been the belle of the ball, though, Ray, at this conference. I mean, that is one of the top, top obesity and how companies can get more exposure to the obesity drug space. Is that a fair interpretation of what you heard at JPMorgan this year, Melissa?
Ray Stevens
It is. And what's really good is obesity is a pandemic. It's finally getting recognized as a pandemic. You know, they say the estimates are by 2033 billion people will be overweight globally. One billion, you know, will be obese in the United States. We're talking about more than 100 million people in the United States alone. And yet right now, today, they're only being served around 5 million people based on Scripp data. And so there's a real big unmet need to address this pandemic. And as mentioned, all the adjacent diseases that come around with excess weight.
Guy Adami
Ray, you priced, I think, an 8.5 million shares secondary in December at 65 bucks, the stock never looked back. I guess that's almost $600 million you raised. My question is, do you have the balance sheet Runway to go it alone?
Ray Stevens
We do. So we raised $750 million back in December. Now we have about 1.5 billion Pro Pharma capital. So that does give us the Runway until the end of 2028 to complete our phase three chronic weight management study.
Melissa Lee
So that phase three, that's for Alaniglipron, Ray?
Ray Stevens
That's correct. For our aleniglypron molecule.
Melissa Lee
Okay. And then for the rest, because you've got a lot of other in study right now. ACCG 2671, another small molecule first in human phase one at this point, that's got a lot of Runway. So that's only the money that you're talking about is only for Elana Glipron.
Ray Stevens
No. So let me clarify for that. Thank you for that question, Melissa. So the 1.5 billion that we have right now in capital that'll take us all the way through completion of Phase 3 with Elenagliparon and chronic weight management. It also gives us the Runway to continue advancing our. You mentioned ACCG 2671. That's our oral amylin small molecule, the only one that we're aware of that's currently in the clinic, very excited about. Amylin is one of the next hot targets in the obesity space. So it'll allow us to advance that to phase two. And then we also have a broad portfolio of obesity medicines based on our structure based drug discovery platform that's proven to be very, very effective at generating these medicines. Of going from a peptide medicine to an oral small molecule, how do you.
Melissa Lee
See the market shaping up seeing that Novo is already in the market with an oral, that Lilly will be in the market with its own oral before yours will make it to the market. Are you worried at all that it's going to be sort of a, you know, first out to market will gain the most share and that there's going to be less for you?
Ray Stevens
No, I don't think so at all. If you look at the history of drug discovery, it was, you think about the statins, you know, it was Mevacor and Zocor from Merck that really they were the first number one. And number two, it wasn't until Lipitor came out years later and then Crestor as well, that won the lion's share of the market. So you know, what we have is what we call a best in class strategy. There's room there. And based on the data that we released in December, we think that we have the potentially best in class profile based on efficacy, based on safety manufacturing and, and one of the futures I think for this field, combinability, when we combine these medicines with other medicines. So for four reasons we think we have a best in class molecule.
Melissa Lee
So during this conference, did you have talks with Merck or Novo?
Ray Stevens
We don't comment on specifications. Even who you talk to specific discussions, not going to comment on specific interactions. It was a very busy week. It was a wonderful week here in San Francisco. Little bit tired now and looking forward to. I live here, so looking forward to getting a little rest as everybody departs San Francisco.
Melissa Lee
I'm sure everybody wanted to talk to you. Ray, thank you for your time. We appreciate it.
Ray Stevens
Thank you very much, Melissa. Really appreciate the time.
Melissa Lee
All right, so gpcr, real winner in this space. It's in Karen's acronym. We should say whatever it is, it's either the S for structured or the G for gpcr. Yeah, yeah. So where would you stand?
Tim Seymour
Well, what's, what's fascinating about this in the context of Lillian Novo is competition's coming. And you know, this is the whole argument you just framed Melissa, which is, and he spoke to, which is that there may ultimately be a case where there are best in class players that come through and, but that either way this is not a two horse race and that at some point this becomes somewhat commoditized. And I think that's something investors need to think, think about with Lilly.
Steve Grasso
Novo is looking for somebody. You've, you've talked about that. They're looking, the whole group is looking for somebody else. And with the patent cliff coming, there's a whole host of other buyers. Potentially this stock, although it's rallied already, could go for a premium of 40 to 70 to 100% more than it is. They're looking for assets just like this even after the run that it's had. It's a $5 billion market cap. 5, $6 billion market cap cap. It could be taken out without the acquirer burping.
Melissa Lee
It's up 5% right now in the after hours session. Burping, burping, Burping. Higher.
Guy Adami
You know, we've been talking about structure forever, so I'm with every time. And Ray can go it alone for a while, but this is just a matter of time before they get acquired.
Carter Worth
As a chart, look, it's fantastic.
Melissa Lee
Oh, fantastic. Wow. Not a pair of twos, not even a pair of Japanese and jacks.
Carter Worth
And what a quick.
Tim Seymour
Your quick study, Melissa.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, we've got two more Trader acronyms coming your way tonight. Well, Carter redeemed himself after an unfortunate short bet last year. And why is Grasso so puzzled? This year they'll spell out their top names in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. It is day four of our 2026 Trader acronym reveals. Steve Grasso and the chart master Carter have been hard at work on their, on their picks. But first, a look back. Steve's 2025 acronym was Boxer with Bitcoin, Octa, US Steel, which was bought by Japan's Nippon Etherium and Reddit. He finished fifth, up nearly 19%. Steve went crypto heavy last year, so that strategy again this year.
Steve Grasso
So I'm going partial crypto heavy. It's Enigma. We have that, we have that graphic on that. So I'm sticking with Ethereum. So ethereum was up 54% before it finished the year down 10%. So that would have been a win. October really crushed me on that. And then I'm going with Navitas Semiconductor. So they were in the charging for mobile phones. Now they're pushing into AI data centers, higher margin business, but they're not profitable. So this could be one that really turns out as an outsized gainer. So that's the theme of this I'm looking for, for real moonshots on these. IonQ, another one which is a Quantum play. They're unprofitable now, so is the rest of the field in quantum. When they turn profitable, I think there's no looking back. Gen Digital. I did not know that. They own Norton Antivirus, they own Lifelock, they own Avast. So there's cybersecurity. There's an angle with the government policies or government contracts. But there's also really just mom and pops that are buying this. I have Lifelock. The residual or the re up rate is 85% and then max Linear, which is the base stations for 5G. 5G is expanding. They make the chips for 5G and Wi Fi, Allegro, which is Allegro Microsystems. They are your car system. So your chips and your sensors. They predominantly work with EVs, but they can work with ICE cars as well. High margin business, soon to be profitable on all of them. Allegro is actually profitable now. I feel good about this acronym.
Melissa Lee
Okay, well next up, Enigma, Chartmaster, Carter Worth. Carter took a unique strategy, going short than names in plop. But the markets rally with particular strength. And Palantir meant he ended deep in the red. So what are you doing this year, Carter? What's your strategy?
Carter Worth
Yeah, so my acronym is. Well, let's see, I turned 60 this year, so I picked AARP. No way. Now they start sending you the mail when you're like 50 or even 48. So we get it. But actually any event, here are the tickers. It's A for affirm, that's a financial services, a sort of online digital affair. It's A for Amazon. And then of course the River. Aaron is a biotech name. It's rhythm. And then the P is a big staple, Procter and Gamble. So aarp.
Melissa Lee
So do the charts individually look good for these stocks?
Carter Worth
Well, that's fine.
Melissa Lee
Or you just picked. You did the backwards. You did the.
Carter Worth
No, no, I don't do backwards. No, these are always picked from bigger baskets. Even last year. The idea is always that you have longs and shorts. Shorts are supposed to underperform the market even if they go up and then longs outperform. These are just from broader baskets. But you do have to find an acronym and this is not really an acronym. It's an acronym of an acronym.
Tom Michaud
Exactly.
Tim Seymour
Wow. Look, I'm glad you said it. I mean, I would. Thank you.
Melissa Lee
I mean rule number one is that it is a real word. Rule number two, real word. AARP is not a real word.
Tom Michaud
An acronym.
Carter Worth
Acronym.
Emily Wilkins
It's done.
Melissa Lee
It's done.
Tim Seymour
No, but I know how many have.
Guy Adami
Been released, like six now. How many?
Melissa Lee
A lot.
Guy Adami
Carter didn't play by the. Karen never plays by the rules.
Melissa Lee
Julie was delulu. Zazu.
Tim Seymour
It's ridiculous. Suzu.
Melissa Lee
Anyway, coming up, charting the yen, Japan's currency trading near 18 month lows. What's behind that move? What are the implications for broader markets? More fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. The Japanese yen trading near 18 month lows against the dollar as traders watch for potential intervention by the bank of Japan. We asked the chartmaster Carter Wirth to chart the yen's next move. What do you see for it?
Carter Worth
Also in this case, it's higher in the chart, which is weaker. Lower. Right. But let's get right to it. I got five charts, different time frames of the Japanese yen. The first is a five year chart and that standoff has been resolved up which is weakness. Next one is a 30 year chart. And again this is just now starting to move above former highs from a long time ago. Let's keep going. Pulling it back even further. And here this is going back some 50, 60 years. It has all the elements of an important bottom or again, further weakness implied. It has been much weaker in the past. Next iteration, just another way to draw the lines. And final iteration, same thing yet again to my eye, going up, which is weakening.
Melissa Lee
Tim, what do you think? I mean the prime minister, there are reports that she's going to call this.
Tim Seymour
Snap election because she's got a chance to cement her position. She's talking about deficit spending. This is someone that's very long Japanese equities. This is very equity friendly. I know it sounds scary but you know, a weaker currency first of all is fantastic for Japanese exporters. But the idea, and you see bond yields go higher because there's a bigger, bigger credit problem and the currency goes lower. One leads the other but in between are equities which by the way Japanese companies have never given more money back in buybacks. Their earnings growth is fantastic. Takaji has a mandate. There's going to be a fiscal stimulus coming. Stay long, Japan.
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades, Final trade time.
Tim Seymour
Tibbo Are we still. We have acronyms next week too. Where are we?
Melissa Lee
Still some.
Tim Seymour
There's still some left. This is rating gold. Speaking of ratings, Netflix says earnings next week. I think the expectations are way too low.
Carter Worth
CBW, a firm $20 billion financial services.
Steve Grasso
Company at higher the A and you are right. Stephen Navitus Semiconductor the end of my.
Guy Adami
Enigma Guy we were listening to a little Skinner than the break. Mel was commenting just the G love.
Tim Seymour
Skynyrd and what was Leonard Skinner, Billy.
Carter Worth
Powell.
Guy Adami
And the keys letter C. Thank.
Melissa Lee
You for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. More fast mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
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Melissa Lee
Hey everyone, friend of the show Tom Holland here. While I've got you, I wanted to tell you all about Biro.
Tom Michaud
I created Beero because I wanted a premium, non alcoholic beer that wasn't about.
Melissa Lee
What you miss but what you gain. The taste and ritual of a proper.
Tom Michaud
Pint, that crisp, full bodied flavor and the smooth finish but without the booze. It's brewed with real ingredients and real craft and most importantly, it means you can enjoy the taste and experience of.
Melissa Lee
Beer without the alcohol.
Tom Michaud
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Episode: Would You Rather?: Goldman Sachs or The Mag7… And Structure Therapeutics CEO
Date: January 15, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee, with Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, Steve Grasso, Guy Adami
This episode of CNBC’s "Fast Money" digs into a pivotal investor question for 2026: Would you rather own Goldman Sachs or the so-called "Mag 7" mega-cap tech stocks? The traders engage in a spirited debate about the prospects of the financial giant versus tech, analyzing earnings momentum, cyclicality, and macro conditions. Other major topics include the resilience of regional banks, semiconductor sector trends after Taiwan Semi’s blowout guidance, the state of crypto regulation after a high-profile bill stalls, and a deep-dive interview with Structure Therapeutics CEO Ray Stevens on the fast-evolving obesity drug market.
[01:50–07:22]
“Despite the move, Goldman Sachs is still a stock that’s going to perform… valuation is not ridiculously stretched, and the world is sort of lining up for exactly what they do.” [02:41]
“The Mag 7, in large part, commoditized business... prices do come down, revenues come down, earnings come down.” [05:15]
“If we are heading into any sort of contraction... then by definition it’s tech. And if that doesn’t happen, the better bet is to just ride the ride with Goldman.” [06:01]
“Which player on the field right now is acting better?... There’s no question. Goldman Sachs.” [07:17]
[09:53–18:13]
Melissa: “What you all are saying implies a rerating... is it a valid, durable rerating?” [10:14]
Tim Seymour: “I think so. You might want to look to the regional banks which haven’t rerated the same way...” [10:28]
“Regionals have traded at a premium to the bigger banks... Now they’ve been at a 20% discount. We believe that gap is going to close.” [11:06]
“Should we be concerned if we’re worried about an AI bubble? What is the extrapolation back to these banks?” —Melissa Lee [12:15] “I don’t believe [banks] changed their risk metrics much... they’ve stayed pretty conservative.” —Tom Michaud [13:19]
“You’re going to see a lot of progressive proposals all around... how much of it is the market going to believe?” —Tom Michaud [15:12]
[18:13–20:35]
“I don’t know how they make that timeline, but it’s ambitious. Good for them if they pull it off.” [19:06]
“Decisive capex, fantastic margins are showing that this commoditized business is also becoming more profitable than ever.” [19:41]
[22:51–25:56]
“Armstrong wants to see language removed that would ban the tokenization of equities... they’re going to need to see some ethics language that could limit how lawmakers and the president can profit from crypto.” [24:16]
“...You're going to see a bill with better language for the crypto community. Net net, I think it’s a buy, longer term, for cryptos.” [24:23]
“It’s almost down 50% since the high of last summer... But it’s happened before, and each time it’s bounced back. I think you’re looking to start to build a long position.” [24:54]
[33:15–38:51]
“We don’t comment as a company policy in terms of market speculation or rumors... A lot of pharmaceutical companies are looking at this very carefully.” —Ray Stevens [34:20]
“Obesity is a pandemic. It’s finally getting recognized... a real big unmet need to address this pandemic.” [35:13]
“We raised $750 million back in December. Now we have about $1.5 billion... that does give us the runway until the end of 2028.” [36:00]
“There’s room there... we think we have a potentially best-in-class profile based on efficacy, safety, manufacturing, and combinability.” [37:42]
“This stock, although it’s rallied already, could go for a premium of 40%, 70%, to 100% more than it is.” —Steve Grasso [39:36]
“This is just a matter of time before they get acquired.” —Guy Adami [40:10]
“As a chart, look, it’s fantastic.” —Carter Worth [40:18]
[41:10–44:26]
“Looking for real moonshots on these... All of them soon to be or already profitable.” —Steve Grasso [41:10]
“These are just from broader baskets. You do have to find an acronym, and this is not really an acronym. It’s an acronym of an acronym.” —Carter Worth [44:04]
[45:02–46:26]
“Going up, which is weakening.” [45:48] (yen down, dollar/yen up)
“A weaker currency is fantastic for Japanese exporters... Japanese companies have never given more money back in buybacks, their earnings growth is fantastic... Stay long Japan.” [45:52]
“Despite the move, Goldman Sachs is still a stock that’s going to perform... valuation is not ridiculously stretched...” [02:41]
“If we are heading into any sort of contraction... then by definition it’s tech. And if that doesn’t happen, the better bet is just to ride the ride with Goldman.” [06:01]
“We’re in a generational moment of deregulation... banks are going to level the playing field a little bit with competitors.” [13:56]
“Obesity is a pandemic... there’s a real big unmet need to address this pandemic.” [35:13]
“This stock... could go for a premium of 40%, 70% or even 100% more than it is. They’re looking for assets just like this.” [39:36]
True to Fast Money’s style, the roundtable banter is both lively and forthright. The hosts aren’t afraid to challenge each other ("It's amazing how confused the three of us got on this" —Steve Grasso [05:04]) and pivot quickly among hot topics. The guest interviews provide deep context without losing the actionable investing focus. The tone is smart, accessible, and a touch irreverent, with running gags about trader acronyms and their dubious legitimacy.
The fastest money on Wall Street is now on the move—but it’s not just the Mag 7. This episode spotlights an inflection point where old-guard financials look newly attractive, tech is re-evaluated, and sector-specific bets (chips, obesity drugs, crypto) are up for debate. If you want to understand what top traders are watching for 2026, this is essential listening.