Today we were pleased to host Marshall Carver, Professor of Finance at Tulane University, who is currently in Beijing teaching students through a joint program with the University of China Academy of Social Sciences (UCAS). We have known Marshall since his time at Tudor Pickering Holt, and he has since built a 20+ year career in equity and debt research. He joined the Tulane faculty five years ago and teaches energy-focused courses including energy investment banking, financial modeling, risk management, and equity research. We were excited to visit with Marshall and hear his firsthand perspectives from China.

In our conversation, Marshall shares his experiences teaching energy finance and financial modeling in Beijing and his broader observations on China’s rapidly evolving energy, manufacturing, and technology landscape. We discuss China’s aggressive long-term focus on manufacturing, AI, renewable energy, batteries, EVs, automation, and infrastructure development through centralized five-year planning, and he explains why he believes China continues extending its lead across several energy transition industries. We explore parallels between the U.S. shale boom and China’s current EV and renewable energy expansion, including the intense competition, quick scaling, overcapacity concerns, and profitability challenges facing many companies.

Marshall outlines the differences he sees between Chinese and U.S. students in areas such as technology and AI tools, spreadsheet modeling, and engineering-focused education. We cover China’s growing emphasis on energy security and its increasingly “all-of-the-above” approach to energy development, including coal, nuclear, renewables, and EV infrastructure investments. We also discuss the country’s fast-growing EV ecosystem, long-range hybrid vehicles, AI and robotics adoption, and the broader geopolitical and industrial competition between China and the United States. We touch on demographic and real estate challenges within China, the role automation could play in offsetting labor constraints, and Marshall’s fascinating personal observations from spending significant time on the ground in Beijing. It was a highly interesting discussion, and we appreciate Marshall for sharing his time and insights.

Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this is a holiday-shortened trading week, with most markets trading on hopes of an imminent Iranian deal, even as those hopes are ironically being overshadowed by ongoing military strikes within the Gulf. On the bond market front, 10-year bond yields were trading just under 4.5% (down from a recent peak of ~4.7%) on optimism that inflation could begin to ease if a potential Iranian deal materializes. On the crude oil market front, WTI prices had pulled back to $92-$93/bbl (down $3-$4/bbl) amid growing optimism that an Iranian deal could be forthcoming. On the broader equity market front, markets continue to post new all-time highs (dialing in a significant amount of optimism), despite the ongoing cycle of weekly on-and-off talks with Iran. On the energy equity front, investors currently appear to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see which direction oil prices ultimately break. He ended by noting that energy investors also seem to be positioning for the next major Energy/Electric sector deal now that 1Q26 earnings calls are in the rearview mirror.

Arjun Murti discussed several major themes emerging from the ongoing Iran conflict and broader energy markets. He emphasized that nothing about the current geopolitical backdrop appears to be slowing the ongoing “power super cycle,” particularly given strong hyperscaler earnings, capex growth, and continued AI-driven electricity demand. He also pushed back on the idea that oil is entering a new long-term super cycle and reiterated Veriten’s view that the market environment is better characterized as “geopolitical super vol,” with continued spikes and pullbacks driven by geopolitical developments rather than structurally higher long-term oil prices. He outlined what Veriten is calling the “Four Ds” of pragmatic energy policy: maximizing domestic production, diversifying energy sources and technologies, doing more with existing assets, and embracing digital transformation and AI. Arjun ended by highlighting China as a notable example of a resource-constrained country pursuing an aggressive “all-of-the-above” strategy across coal, renewables, automation, and AI.