Today we greatly enjoyed hosting William Su, Head of Public Energy Equities and Director of Research & Portfolio Manager, Fundamental Equities, at BlackRock. Will has an extensive career in research, investing, and commodities, and brings a valuable perspective to the global energy investor landscape. We were thrilled to visit with Will on how energy, geopolitics, and technology are increasingly intersecting to shape markets and investment frameworks.

In our conversation, we explore a market environment increasingly defined by volatility, geopolitical risk, and a growing disconnect between financial signals and physical realities. Will shares how investors are navigating uncertainty, balancing near-term volatility with a longer-term framework that emphasizes probabilities, team-based insight, and disciplined portfolio construction. We discuss a shift underway in how risk is being assessed, with greater focus on tail risks, diversification, and the role of real assets and infrastructure alongside traditional equities and fixed income.

Will outlines the emergence of a “two-track” global economy: on one hand, AI-driven investment and growth remain robust, providing a meaningful tailwind to GDP and equity markets; on the other, energy and commodity markets are tightening, with supply disruptions, infrastructure damage, and constrained capacity creating more persistent, structural risks that may take years to fully resolve. This divergence is reshaping how capital is allocated across sectors and regions, with increasing attention on energy security and the relative advantages of North American supply.

We examine the growing intersection of AI and energy and how AI is increasingly acting as a demand catalyst, reinforcing the need for reliable, scalable power and positioning oil, gas, and other hard assets as critical enablers of future growth. We also discuss the practical constraints around building the infrastructure needed to support this growth across data centers, power generation, and supply chains, as well as the broader re-emergence of energy as a central pillar of economic and market dynamics, with important implications for growth, policy, and global stability. We covered a great deal and appreciate Will for sharing his time and insights.

Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the next 24 hours could be very important and volatile for commodity and equity markets, given that President Trump’s ceasefire deadline was approaching. On the oil market front, he noted that WTI oil prices had traded up ~$9/bbl (to ~$92/bbl) this week, after closing down ~$11/bbl to ~$84/bbl last Friday, driven by concerns that the Iranian ceasefire deadline could be breached. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 had recently traded to all-time highs, supported by growing optimism over the past few weeks that an Iranian peace agreement and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were imminent. Equity markets over the last 30 days have shifted from technically “oversold” to “overbought” levels, which could present near-term risks.

With 1Q earnings season underway, Mike expects most companies to meet estimates but noted concern that the eight-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz will begin to work its way through global supply chains and negatively impact future quarterly results. In the Energy sector, investors are focused this week on Oil Services 1Q results. Halliburton (HAL) indicated on its 1Q call that North America (NAM) activity is showing clear signs of being in the “early innings” of a recovery. This theme is consistent with our view that a number of E&Ps will signal on their 1Q calls a shift toward modest oil production growth in 2H26.

"There Is No Certainty, Only Varying Degrees of Risk" – William Su, BlackRock