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In this episode, we unpack the latest escalation in the Iran conflict and why the Strait of Hormuz standoff may be affecting market volatility and inflation-risk. We discuss the initial stability in markets before sentiment sobered on Tuesday as spillover fears grew, with oil rallying as gold fell. We then pivot to Block’s 40% workforce cut, explicitly framed as an AI-driven operating model shift, and argue it’s less a one-off layoff story and more a signal of what markets may increasingly reward: credible “AI-to-margins” narratives that reshape competitive incentives. From there, we connect AI-driven restructuring to bitcoin through two macro paths: 1) a productivity-led disinflation tailwind that loosens financial conditions versus 2) a near-term demand shock that triggers risk-off first. Finally, we highlight bitcoin’s key levels and map out the trading scenarios to watch this week.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)

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