Is Whatnot’s $12B Valuation Real or Hype? Ryan and Brian Break It Down

Summary

Trading Cards & Collectibles Podcast

Episode: Is Whatnot’s $12B Valuation Real or Hype? Ryan and Brian Break It Down

Date: October 31, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Alford & Brian
Network: The Radcast Network

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Overview

In this episode, Ryan and Brian dive deep into Whatnot’s latest $12 billion valuation, questioning whether it reflects genuine market fundamentals or hyped expectations. Alongside news, market pulse, and a live pack rip, the hosts discuss the current collectibles landscape including sports card trends, innovation in the hobby, and how major players like eBay and Fanatics are adapting.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Whatnot’s Massive Valuation: Real or Just Hype?

[15:49–18:46]

• Whatnot’s Market Position: The hosts discuss how Whatnot has dominated the live-streaming segment of the hobby, cementing themselves alongside industry titans such as Fanatics for manufacturing, PSA for grading, and eBay for the marketplace.
• Series F Funding News: Ryan reports Whatnot’s latest funding round: $225 million raised at an $11.5 billion valuation, nearly double last year’s.
  • Quote (Ryan): "That either shows how big the industry is that no one knows about, or there's a lot of things that... Investing potential is not always, doesn't always work out." [16:32]
• Expansion Ambitions: Whatnot’s intention to move beyond cards to broader live shopping (e.g., “garden hoses”) is noted, highlighting their aspirations and the risks.
• Sustainability: Both agree the high valuation is ambitious—potentially justified if Whatnot’s vision for “crushing” live sales across multiple verticals succeeds.
• Comparison with eBay Live:
  • eBay’s efforts to compete with Whatnot are likened to a startup facing a behemoth.
  • Quote (Ryan): "Ebay should not confuse themselves. Those two are different worlds, their marketplace versus their live streaming. They're different companies and they have to look at it differently." [17:36]

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2. State of the Live Shopping and Marketplaces

[17:48–18:46]

• eBay’s Challenges:
  • Brian describes eBay Live’s limits (only being able to list 30 cards/hour versus 250/hour on Whatnot) as hampering adoption.
  • Quote (Ryan): "Their legacy technology bled into their live streaming and it's causing issues. The issues are that if I can only put 30 cards an hour onto ebay live and I could put 250 on a whatnot, why would I go to ebay live?" [18:18]
• eBay’s Team: Both are optimistic about eBay’s team but recognize it will be a “longer road than they probably thought” [18:37].

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3. Market Pulse: Sports Card Hot List

[06:06–07:43]

• Trending Players:
  • Jonathan Taylor’s Prism Silver PSA 10 up 34% in value and jumped ranking from 83rd to 7th trending player.
  • Jamar Chase’s cards up 23%, ranking jump from 110 to 22, possibly due to fantasy football performance.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) up 42%, jumping from 143rd to 93rd.
• Insights:
  • Some jumps seem disconnected from on-field performance, revealing underlying links between the fantasy market and card valuations.

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4. The Broader Hobby: Growth, Recognition, and Innovation

[02:22–05:18]

• Ludx Nominated: Ryan’s company Ludx is up for an "Innovation" award at the Mantle Collectibles Awards. Both underscore how recognition matters in an industry overdue for disruption and modernization.
• Community Engagement: A new podcast segment will showcase listeners’ pulls and collecting stories, emphasizing the personal meaning behind the hobby versus just the card’s value.
  • Quote (Brian): "It's not just about the value. It's about what you're collecting, what means something to you. Just share a story..." [05:18]

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5. Upper Deck President’s Warning: Is the Market Unsustainable?

[10:01–12:17]

• Skepticism About Bubbles: Brian shares Upper Deck’s president’s view that speculation and high box prices are unsustainable, though he pushes back, seeing the current market as more robust compared to earlier “bubbles” like the pandemic.
  • Quote (Brian): "This doesn't feel like an unnatural bubble like the pandemic or something." [11:19]
• Industry Parsing: Ryan agrees with Brian, arguing that only certain segments (like sealed wax) may be overheated, while the overall collectibles ecosystem (shows, singles, flipping) is still vibrant and expanding.

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6. Live Pack Rip: Ginter Rip Card

[12:22–15:25]

• The Pull: Brian rips an $300 Ellie De La Cruz rookie rip card, drawing several mini stained glass parallels.
• Results: Multiple hits, with stained glass Jackson Holiday and Jackson Merrill cards valued as high as $200 each.
  • Quote (Brian): "You might have just… you might have gone over." [14:39]
• Giveaway Announcement: Ryan announces he’ll give away one of the stained glass cards to listeners next week, making this “one of his best rips ever.”

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7. Fun Banter and Personal Updates

[01:01–03:24, 19:00–end]

• Studio Upgrades: The hosts joke about studio moves and construction woes, bringing lively, relatable energy.
• Upcoming Plans: Next week’s episode will film at the TCS Ludx Card Shop at the Texas Rangers stadium.
• Encouragement: Personal stories about the grind—moving houses, failed sports teams, and the ongoing evolution of the hobby.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ryan on eBay vs. Whatnot:
  “Ebay should not confuse themselves. Those two are different worlds, their marketplace versus their live streaming.” [17:36]

• Brian on the hobby’s growth:
  “This isn't participation trophy. This is companies freaking doing things in hobbies that are hundreds of years old that needed innovation and needed leadership and guidance.” [04:25]

• Ryan on speculation:
  “He’s wrong because he macroly put the whole industry into one bucket.” [12:17]

• Brian after the live rip:
  “You did way better than me, my friend… That was a good, good trade off.” [15:25, 19:45]

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• Whatnot Valuation & Market Analysis: 15:49–18:46
• eBay Live vs. Whatnot: 17:48–18:46
• Market Pulse / Trending Football Cards: 06:06–07:43
• Ludx Innovation Award / Community Segment: 02:22–05:18
• Upper Deck Market Caution: 10:01–12:17
• Live Pack Rip & Giveaway: 12:22–15:25
• Listener Stories & Closing Banter: 19:00–end

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Conclusion

This episode thoughtfully dissects Whatnot’s place in the modern collectibles hobby, balancing optimism about the sector’s potential with caution against hype-driven valuations. The hosts’ authentic passion, industry expertise, and creative engagement (like the live rip giveaway) make the discussion accessible and insightful for both seasoned collectors and newcomers. Expect actionable hobby insights, sharp banter, and plenty of reasons to tune in again.

Next Episode: Live from TCS Ludx Card Shop at Rangers Stadium!

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Follow the show for more episodes, hobby highlights, market trends, and as always—“get out there and collect something, baby!”

Transcript

[Ryan Alford]

Yeah, whatnot for live streaming. They dominated that so much. So what I think is like, hey, look at what we did over here for sports cards and live shopping. We're going to crush it all. And they might, but like, that's a high valuation. There's a lot of things that potential and investing potentials doesn't always work out. Ebay should not confuse themselves, their marketplace versus their live streaming. They're different companies and they have to look at it differently and be like, we're protecting what we built on the marketplace or we're attacking what we want. You know, business well enough. That's different mentality.

[Brian]

Tani didn't have a great, great night, but what a series so far. We were high on LA coming after their last series. It seemed like they come in, but the Blue Jays are like, not so fast, my friend. We can score and we can score fast.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Welcome to the Trading Cards and Collectibles podcast on the Radcast Network. From chasing grails to calling bluffs and going inside the hobby, Are you ready to collect? Let's get at it. Here is your host, Ryan Alford.

[Brian]

Hello and welcome to Trading Cards and Collectibles. It's Brian and Ryan here on. It's a Thursday, Wednesday for us. Brian. My days are rolling together. I'm looking at rain out the window going, oh, my God. Finishing this move in the studio, but glad to be with you, man.

[Ryan Alford]

It's always a pleasure, my man. I like it. Starting to come together. It is.

[Brian]

It's coming together. It's good. Look, dude, you don't need. This is just like a taster. This is going to be like a sports center set here soon. We're big. Depths of imagination and lighting and all kinds of stuff. This is just getting through to the other side till we can, like, pull out the big guns.

[Ryan Alford]

That's awesome. Well, I know your vision. I know what the vision is, so. And I know you. You'll get there.

[Brian]

Yes, it'll be. It might be painful for some and including me if you. You should send the bandages. I was ripping off my hands just to get on. I had white bandages. I have cuts on every finger and moving and being impatient like I am and. But I'm ready to talk. Some collectibles take my mind off of painting and moving.

[Ryan Alford]

Let's do it.

[Brian]

What's. What's happening this week? What's going on with Ludx? What's. What's the life of the CEO? What's. What's big in your territory?

[Ryan Alford]

Today's like this Week is kind of quiet for me. I mean, obviously the meetings and working 12 hours is, like, the norm, but I'm home. I'm not traveling. We have a couple cool releases coming out this week that we're concentrating on. We're also up for an award on Mantle. They're doing kind of like the collectibles Awards, and it goes from like, Best hobby shop to podcast. And we're. We're nominated for innovation, so that's cool. We're doing some things around that, you know, if we win or don't win, you know, whatever. But the fact is, is, like, it's cool for. For us to get out there and be recognized at some level, so we're excited about that around here. We got. We're moving in a month, which, you know, get your advice on that when that happens. And then I'll be at the card shop next week, starting taking videos and showing you guys what we got going on.

[Brian]

I'm excited to see that. And so we'll have links to the award. Hey, give us some love. You know, if you're enjoying the content, we're just cutting it up. We're just getting started here on the show. We'll be on the Podcast Awards next year. You know, they. We're like 12, 14 episodes in, so we'll. We'll. We'll keep making waves. I guess I didn't want. I guess top three in all sports on Apple wasn't enough to make the awards for this year. But we'll keep focusing.

[Ryan Alford]

Hey, we gotta keep working hard, man.

[Brian]

But you do need to go vote for innovation. Ludx. They are innovators in the space. Ryan and I are friends, but I only become friends with people whose products I love first, so it is. Well, look, just being up for. It's a big deal, so. So congrats on that. Congrats to the team. And if you're listening, give us some love. Vote twice. Three times. Tell your. Tell your friends.

[Ryan Alford]

Tell your friends. Friends.

[Brian]

Yeah, tell your friends. Friends. The. But it's cool of them to do it. I mean, the hobby's so big and there's so many things going on, so it's. Look, I mean, we all like recognition, and it's good for, like, companies like yours that have teams and stuff like it. That stuff matters. Like, this isn't participation trophy. This is companies freaking doing things in hobbies that are hundreds of years old that needed innovation and needed leadership and guidance, like what Brian's doing. And this is what the hobby needs. It needs companies like ludx being successful and bringing ideas and bringing technology. So this stuff matters. Collectibles show is where you'll find all of the channels and learn more about what we're doing. And ultimately, hey, we want to hear from you.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

You do.

[Brian]

Case hitsollectibles Show. I want you to send in your favorite pulls of the week. And here's the difference. This isn't about just value. Hey, we want to see some $10,000 hits. Had a couple of those myself a few months back. But it's not just about the value. It's about what you're collecting, what means something to you. Just share a story, share a video of you holding up the card that you hit last week that was your favorite player and you nailed it. So Case hitsollectables Show, send in those videos. I want to know the stories. We're going to bring them to life here on the show. We're going to do a segment each week once we get rolling and get some videos in where we share that on the show with us. We want to feature you on Collectibles Show. We got the market pulse this week. Who, who's. Who's popping like it's hot?

[Ryan Alford]

All right, well, there's a couple on here that make sense and there's a couple that not. Doesn't make tons of sense. But so it's all football. And the first one is the Prism silver. Jonathan Taylor, PSA 10 is up 34%. He moved from 83rd on the trending players to seven. So that's quite the jump. This is what I'm a little. I don't know about this one. Jamar chase is up 23% and he went from trending players at 110 to 22. Interesting because, I mean, he's been out there a while. I mean, I didn't see them do great things.

[Brian]

No, I mean, they're kind of suck. I mean they've been like up and down with burrow out and so I don't know what suddenly, I mean, he's having a bang up year. Like Clayton, my son has him in fantasy and all he always does is say he's crushing it in fantasies. So maybe, maybe there's some tie in with fantasy.

[Ryan Alford]

Yeah, it could be. And then the last one is. And you're gonna have to help me with, his name is Jackson Smith.

[Brian]

And Jigma in Jigba. Daxton's myth in Jigba. I think I'm almost saying it funny, but that's. I do know how to pronounce his name. I feel like trying to say it in JN. JSN. Yeah. JSN. That's all you need to say.

[Ryan Alford]

He's up 42% and he went from 143 on the Trendy Players to 93.

[Brian]

Yeah, he's having, he's legit.

[Ryan Alford]

Hey, World World Series.

[Brian]

Oh yeah. Batani didn't have a great night last night. No, but what a series so far. 2. Two battling back and forth. I think some people like mistakenly thought. And we, we were high on LA coming after, after their last series, it seemed like they come in, but Blue Jays are like, not so fast, my friend. We can score and we can score fast.

[Ryan Alford]

Yeah, I mean they're, they're doing everything they need to do and you know that 18 inning game or whatever, I mean the umpire, I don't know if you saw it, but like in the second inning, the umpire that like I've never seen umpire like that even like it like Little League. It's like the guy did not speak and when you don't say strike, the whole world knows it as a ball and it was really bad. And that guy should not be in the league anymore.

[Brian]

Not ever. But definitely not in the World Series. Right. Where are we at in the World Series? Or we got LA and New York, right?

[Ryan Alford]

Yeah. And it's, it's, it's tight. So LA has got, got just over 74,000 and the Yankees have just under 64,000. So 10,000 away, which you know that, that couldn't, that could flip.

[Brian]

Could flip and be interesting though. 10,000 scan, I mean with millions that you guys get a week. Right? I mean 10,000 is not hard to flip.

[Ryan Alford]

Yep. No, that, that can happen now.

[Brian]

The only thing that's gonna, it's working against you if you're the Yankee. I mean the Yankees players are always gonna get scanned a lot because they're Yankees and they're popular. The only thing working against you is just you got the LA players live and playing and as the stakes continue to get higher in the series, you're gonna, you might see those continue to jump.

[Ryan Alford]

It would have been really interesting if they had like a, a big release. That would be cool.

[Brian]

Yeah, the. You seen any of the new tops basketball, you opened any of that?

[Ryan Alford]

Yeah, I mean they're doing what everyone does. They throw out their cheap product first, get everyone to buy it and then they, they start elevating it. But yeah, I mean it's fine. I mean I, it's exactly what they need to do.

[Brian]

Yeah, they yeah, it makes me want Chrome, but yeah, like what it's supposed to be. But I did see an interesting comment. I wanted to get your take on the president of Upper Deck. I don't have his name, you probably know. Yeah, he made a comment that said right now the speculation just going on in general in the hobby is unsustainable and you know, $1,000 a box and like there's nowhere to go but potentially down. I don't know. He was very Debbie doubter a little bit about the sustainability and I'm going to give you my thoughts and I want to get yours. I feel like there's been these moments like the pandemic and everything that were obvious bubbles. I feel like this has been sort of a slow burn coming with, with sort of big money coming in, investors coming in and it's like, I think you've just, you've got like this institutional money and, and things that have been slow burn coming in that I. This doesn't feel like an unnatural bubble like the pandemic or something. And so while maybe it will have its burning hot moments and simmering a bit, but this feels different to me. What says you?

[Ryan Alford]

I mean, I agree with you. I think that's really a good point. I think it's, this is sustainable and I mean someone coming out and just broadly saying that this industry, like what part of the industry are you talking about? Are you talking about just wax? Yes, I agree. Like that, that shit's not great, right? Yeah, but that's only such a small part of this industry where that might work. Like the wax. He might be right. But singles and people going to shop shows and people collecting and flipping, it's like that industry only getting bigger. And he's wrong in my opinion. He's wrong because he macroly put the whole industry into one bucket.

[Brian]

Yeah.

[Ryan Alford]

Speaking of opening wax and losing money.

[Brian]

Oh boy. I like it. Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes. This is, hey, this is, we're talking real money people here. This is where if you were kind of halfway paying attention on the treadmill, this is when you really tune in. You turn it over to YouTube so you can watch the rip card and.

[Ryan Alford]

It'S gonna be a loser. Like if this Card's going for 300 bucks, what do you think?

[Brian]

How about this? I think it's a loser because I, I just, I like to be pleasantly surprised. How about if it's something ridiculous, we, we do something fun with the proceeds.

[Ryan Alford]

I like that. Yeah.

[Brian]

I want to. Gunter. Rip card. And who's the player? Ellie oh De Cruz rookie card. Yep. A Cruz rookie card. Rip card. It's already worth 300, folks. So Brian's going to rip it. Here went 300. I just as a $300 stamp. You just ripped off.

[Ryan Alford]

Right now I just see uniforms. I don't see anything else. So now I'm going to the bottom one.

[Brian]

Oh, boy. There's the other.

[Ryan Alford]

And now I have to then I guess rip this open.

[Brian]

Dale Murphy stained glass.

[Ryan Alford]

All right.

[Brian]

Oh, boy.

[Ryan Alford]

You tell me what you think about this.

[Brian]

Okay.

[Ryan Alford]

Kirsten? Not much. It can't be worth it. It's the guy from the Orioles. Kirsted is his last name. His rookie now.

[Brian]

Okay.

[Ryan Alford]

I think. Okay. Then you have Jackson Merrill.

[Brian]

Yeah.

[Ryan Alford]

It's his rookie card. Stained glass.

[Brian]

That's a good card. I think that's a good that.

[Ryan Alford]

I think that's a good card. And then this one I think could be really good. This is a Jackson Holiday.

[Brian]

Ooh, stained glass. Okay. All right. How do we get the value on that?

[Ryan Alford]

This one Ludox comes up with between $110 and $210 for.

[Brian]

For the stained glass on RAW.

[Ryan Alford]

Yep. Then I'm going to scan this card.

[Brian]

If that's $200.

[Ryan Alford]

Jackson Merle's also 117 to 218.

[Brian]

Oh, wow. Look, let's just go high end. 200. That's 400. You might have just. You might have gone over.

[Ryan Alford]

I think I might have gone over.

[Brian]

Wow. Okay.

[Ryan Alford]

I think those comps are probably pretty decent. And then this is the base one is just five to ten bucks. So. Dude, I think we. I think we did higher.

[Brian]

Like let's see if we go low end. Like the worst year broke even.

[Ryan Alford]

I will give away. I will give away one of these next week to listen.

[Brian]

Yes, please. He's going to get to do a giveaway where a stained glass. You gotta. Yeah. Here we go. Holding them up. Gotta be watching this. You gotta see. Those are cool looking.

[Ryan Alford]

Yeah. It says inside this card an exclusive mini stained glass parallel and two of the following mini parallel. Mini wood parallel. Mini metal and sketch card. So I got two stained glasses. Like that's. I think. I think I won.

[Brian]

I think you definitely won. All right, there we go. I think it was a successful rip. We'll. We'll figure out a giveaway for next week. So Tay tuned. Stay tuned. Those are cool. You did way better than me, my friend. I did see and I know you talked pre episode a little bit. Some big news, little whatnot. It's. I wouldn't Call it whatnot. I'd call it a lot of something. A lot of money.

[Ryan Alford]

A lot of money.

[Brian]

Yeah. What, what Give it. Since you saw it. What, what give this, give the audience the full slowdown.

[Ryan Alford]

I mean, you know, a company, I mean they dominate, right? Like, I mean there's behemoths in this industry that just dominate what they do. And you, you're talking about obviously fanatics. And for manufacturing, you got PSA from grading, you got ebay for marketplace and you got whatnot for live streaming and everyone else is everyone else. And they dominated that so much that I think what, how it thinks, how I look at it as a series F round. And they raised I think, 225 on a eleven and a half billion dollar valuation, which is almost double of what it was 12 months ago. So what I think is like, hey, look at what we did over here for sports cards. We're going to do that for garden hoses. We're going to do it for this and live shopping, we're going to, we're going to crush it all. And they might, they might. But like, that's a high valuation, like backing into that. If it was just sports cards, that either shows how big the industry is that no one knows about, or there's a lot of things that, you know, potential, potential and investing potential is not always, doesn't always work out. Ebay is, is the monster that everyone's trying to take a bite out of. But when you look at ebay live now, you're talking about a startup. Ebay Live is a startup competing against a behemoth. It's really what everyone, every marketplace did to compete with ebay's marketplace. But ebay should not confuse themselves. Those two are different worlds, their marketplace versus their live streaming. They're different companies and they have to look at it differently and be like, we're actually going to, we're, we're, we're protecting what we built on the marketplace or we're attacking what we want to attack. And it's too, you know, you know, business well enough that's different mentality.

[Brian]

It is. And you know, we, we struck a deal to have the ability to do ebay live and it, and the timing was just off with things that I had with transition, like we intend to still get on there. But what I'll say is what their challenge has been, if you're going to, you know, just because you're the leader in marketplace doesn't make, doesn't immediately make you the leader in a different segment. And Especially when you don't bring out a differentiated product.

[Ryan Alford]

So their legacy technology bled into their live streaming and it's causing issues. And the issues are that if I can only put 30 cards an hour onto ebay live and I could put 250 on a whatnot, why would I go to ebay live now, the team, I love the team that ebay.

[Brian]

I love the team.

[Ryan Alford]

Together, I think they're going to figure this out, but they're going to get. It's a longer, longer road than they probably thought.

[Brian]

Yeah, but you know, well, they say mo money, mo problems, more opportunities too. So a little bit of everything. Cool, man. Anything else this week?

[Ryan Alford]

No, man, I'm all, I'm all good.

[Brian]

Next week at the card shop at.

[Ryan Alford]

The Rangers card shop.

[Brian]

Yep. TCS Ludx card shop at the Rangers stadium. Brian's bringing that to life with the team down there in Texas. Everything's bigger in Texas, baby.

[Ryan Alford]

True that.

[Brian]

Including the Ludox card shop. Appreciate you, man. Hopefully the Bears get it back together this week. My Tigers play Duke. If we can't get, I might just go in hibernation. If Clemson can't beat Duke in football.

[Ryan Alford]

That would be bad. Good luck with your move, man. I think you're coming to the end of it, man. I know it's been a lot.

[Brian]

Yeah.

[Ryan Alford]

But you keep going, keep grinding.

[Brian]

We will, we will. Appreciate you, brother. We'll see you next week. We appreciate everyone out there for listening. You find us at collectibles show that has all the past episodes. Episodes. And hey, Ryan's holding up those stained glass cards. We'll do a giveaway next week on those. Hey, yeah, rip it. Forget it. Or I think he ripped it and. And won it. That was a, that was a good, good trade off. But yeah, check us out there. YouTube, Spotify, keep downloading, keep sharing. We appreciate it. We're here to grow with you in the hobby and get out there and collect something, baby. We'll see you next time on tcc.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Thanks for tuning in to the show. Don't forget to follow us on your favorite podcast platform and don't miss the full video version on YouTube. You can find us at www.collectibles show or follow Ryan on Instagram at ryanolford. Now get out there and collect your.