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- [00:00]
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- [02:23]
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- [02:33]
Michael Newman
Welcome to the College football Bros. I'm Michael Newman.
- [02:36]
Trey Newman
And I'm Trey Newman.
- [02:37]
Michael Newman
Okay, next conference in our conference preview series is the Big 12. And let's get right into it, Trey. We'll start out with our first segment. Fact or fiction?
- [02:46]
Trey Newman
All right. Yeah. Fact or fiction? The Big 12 will get two teams in the playoff this year.
- [02:52]
Michael Newman
All right, so the, the fact that you're asking this, I'm anticipating that you might be going bold and going fact here, but I gotta say fiction. So with the rule change, they are now guaranteed to at least have one. Not that they wouldn't have got one anyway, but they're getting at least one because it's no longer top five conference champs into the playoff. It is specifically power four champs and then a G6. So, yeah, the Big 12 champ is in. You just got to get one at large. And so you really, I mean, you're hoping some team goes 11 and 1 or 12 and then loses in the Big 12 title. And the obvious candidate for that is Texas Tech. But the problem is if they go 11 and 1 and then losing the Big 12 title, I'm fairly confident that's not going to be good enough with their. How easy their schedule is. 11 and 2, I don't think is going to do it. So. So you're having to thread quite a needle there for them to go 12 and oh, and then lose to, to be that second team. And looking at some other teams like Utah to me seems very likely worse than last year with Whittingham gone. Taking some pretty good transfers with him. BYU is, I mean that BYU is to me the clear second best team in the conference. But again, that involves them going at least 11 and 1 and losing in the Big 12 title. And that's, I mean, they did that last year. They went 11, 1, lost the Big 12 title and they still missed out on the playoffs. So that is possible. That could happen again. So, yeah, I'm saying fiction.
- [04:20]
Trey Newman
Yeah, I mean, it's obviously going to depend on how that bubble is, of course. But, you know, like last year we saw them leave a 9 and 3 Texas team out, of course, the infamous 10 and 2 Notre Dame. But still need, still a need for wins and good ones at that. And obviously say Texas Tech wins the league. But for my argument, I'm just thinking BYU or Utah, in my opinion are the Teams that could crash like Utah last year was honestly a playoff playoff good by the, the metrics. They finished eighth in fpi. But like you mentioned, of course they, they do lose their head coach and, and some of their, their line play. But with Devin Dampier back, you never know. And they avoid Texas Tech and Kansas State. And we've seen in past iterations of the playoff, some team sometimes like a team needs to validate its success in the following year to warrant getting a bid. So maybe BYU and Utah kind of fit that, that narrative. Especially byu. Like Barkmeyer should only improve in his sophomore season. I love L.J. martin at running back. He's the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the year. And they, they avoid Texas Tech and they get a golden opportunity in mid October when they host Notre Dame. If they're, if they're able to win that game, that's going to just boost their resume incredibly. You know, having a chance to beat a top five team. But, and then even if that doesn't happen, that, that holy war at the end of the year could just have a, a ton on the line, including a maybe a quote unquote potential playoff spot.
- [05:57]
Michael Newman
Yeah, I mean your hope for here you just got to get to the, get to the title game with a shot. Like you're, you're probably going to need an upset some, some like last year
- [06:07]
Trey Newman
you needed BYU to win the game and I mean.
- [06:09]
Michael Newman
Yeah, exactly.
- [06:10]
Trey Newman
Close, but.
- [06:11]
Michael Newman
No, they weren't. But, but you're right, they were that quote unquote game away last year to have it happening. Yeah. Okay. Well my question for you, fact or fiction? Arizona is the third best team in the Big 12.
- [06:24]
Trey Newman
I like where you're going with this and, and you're probably putting some faith in, in Noah Fafida there. But, but I can't. I'm going fiction because digging into it, surprisingly the offense wasn't totally what actually carried them last season to a pretty good year. The defense happened to set them up in it with some good situations. The offense was only 60th in success rate and, and now they have a line with, with offensive line with three new starters. And that defense that I kind of alluded to, they have to replace some key pieces in the secondary. I do like what they have up front though. Like that front half should be pretty good for, for Gonzalez, the D coordinator. And then like Brent Brennan. I don't. He's proven me wrong. I guess he's done. He did well at times at San Jose State and then, and then had a good year. At Arizona last year, but before that it was kind of hit or miss. But the biggest thing for me is the schedule. The. Some of the other top contenders in the Big 12 avoid some of those top guys and Arizona does not. They have to play like at Utah, at Texas Tech, at BYU or I guess at byu. They host Utah. But yeah, they just, they just. They essentially avoid nobody up top and. And there's other teams that like. I kind of am coming around. I like Kansas State a little this season with Colin Klein. We'll see about Utah, but they still have Devin Dampier. Houston's on the rise. A lot of expectations with them. I'm sure we'll. We'll discuss them further later on. But I just think there's too many teams up there that are maybe better in my opinion.
- [07:56]
Michael Newman
Yeah, I mean you made a lot of good points about the team, about some of the other teams that are in contention for this third spot. If we're kind of assuming that Texas Tech and BYU are 12 in the conference. But I will say the schedule. Nothing to do with what I said here. I saw fact. Obviously third best. Yeah. I don't think they're going to finish third in the conference because that schedule is just so unfair. I mean there's just having to go on the road to BYU and Texas Tech is just. Yeah. College football.
- [08:24]
Trey Newman
It's stupid right now. It's just stupid. The unbalanced schedules are just insane and all really is.
- [08:30]
Michael Newman
Yeah. They need to do something about that. Maybe we should have thought about that before. What's that?
- [08:36]
Trey Newman
It's just like I. You're just playing a different. It's wild. It's just crazy.
- [08:41]
Michael Newman
It is. But, but. So let me make the case for Arizona and why I think they're the third best team. I think the most common answer here would probably be Utah. And you mentioned we'll be getting to Houston later. We'll also of course be getting to Utah later. And why I'm kind of lowish on them, but I just. So Brent Brennan, very good coach in my favorite metric last year, Arizona, fourth best team in the Big 12 and they're 32nd in the nation in returning production. So they're bringing a decent amount back. Love Noah Fufita on offense. He's got an experienced offensive line in front of him. To me there's no reason it shouldn't be a very solid offense. There is the chance that the defense takes a step back that. That you mentioned. But I really like the transfer Hall.
- [09:22]
Trey Newman
They got a.
- [09:22]
Michael Newman
Just a good Mix like I don't like when you overly rely on one type of transfer. Like a lot of some schools I know, like Deion Sanders did this a couple years ago where you just bring in a bunch of like former blue chippers that, yeah, weren't getting playing time at their previous stop. You can bring in a couple of those, take some shots on those. But when you, when you kind of aren't diversified in your transfers, I don't like it. But they, Arizona defensively really did. They brought in some solid G6 starters, some former FCS stars and some of those blue chip P4 guys. So yeah, year two with, with Gonzalez who was, you know, did a great job last year, I think was a semifinalist for the Broyles, something like that. Yeah, I just think solid both sides of the ball and it's more just lowish on some of the other teams in contention.
- [10:09]
Trey Newman
Yeah, no, and I like, I like Fafita. Hopefully he can kind of carry them because two, two of his three years have been really awesome.
- [10:17]
Michael Newman
Yeah, exactly. So before we get to a couple questions we have for each other about the Big 12, quick reminder, we put a link in the description to join our Patreon. So for five bucks a month, you get bonus episodes access to our Discord server. And you better hurry up and join because our college football fantasy league will be drafting. We don't have a draft date set, but I'm sure within a couple weeks here. So. So yeah, find that in the description in your, in your podcast app. But. But yeah, let's get to these, these Big 12 questions.
- [10:51]
Trey Newman
All right, so we've got some hot seat coaches in this league, just like pretty much every other league. But of the teams with coaches on the hot seat or, or retirement, slash, leaving on their own terms, who do you think will have the best season? And I kind of looked at Baylor's Dave Aranda, Cincinnati's Scott Satterfield and then Colorado's Deion Sanders.
- [11:13]
Michael Newman
Yeah. So I am choosing to define best as relative to their win total because there's a little bit of variation in the, in these teams win totals and so give me Cincinnati Scott Satterfield. I, I just continue to think he's a solid coach. Like not great, not amazing, but I think he's, he's proven it.
- [11:33]
Trey Newman
Like I'm not, I'm not poo pooing it.
- [11:35]
Michael Newman
Yeah, it took over a what I guess was probably a tough situation at Cincinnati with following Luke Fickle and just that whole amazing team gone. So he's kind of starting from Scratch jumping up to the Big 12, but they've slowly gotten better and I think relative to the, to the top end of the league, he doesn't have the money to really come compete at the top, the top level. So I think he's doing fine with what, what he has. They are losing a ton of skill talent, including Brendan Sorsby, so that really hurts. But solid offensive lineback, a pretty solid transfer hall on offense, bunch of, you know, G6FCs D2 skill talent transfers that were really productive at their previous stops. So I guess that's a risk. But I, I just put some trust in Scott Satterfield. Like he pretty consistently puts out decent offenses. JC French at quarterback, coming in from Georgia Southern, I think is at least like fairly high floor defensively. We'll see. It's transfer heavy, but they were pretty bad last year, so there's at least a chance they get better, so. Well, here's their team though, again. You always have to ring up the schedule because they got screwed in that department too. They don't avoid any of the top Big 12 teams. Like it's just. You almost couldn't have scripted a worse schedule. So I'm not, I don't see them, you know, going 8 and 4, but I think with a favorable non conference, I see them making a bowl game which would be over. I think their win total is five and a half.
- [13:00]
Trey Newman
Yeah, the first half of their schedule is manageable. So if they could, if they could, you know, show something there. It's kind of like last year. They unfortunately. Like what, they finished one in five in the back half of the season.
- [13:10]
Michael Newman
Yeah, I could see something like that happening again, but it just, it just
- [13:13]
Trey Newman
kind of left a sour pro, sour taste in the program going into this year.
- [13:18]
Michael Newman
Yeah, I don't know.
- [13:19]
Trey Newman
I just, I don't, I don't think, I don't think Colorado will be good. They fell back hard last year. Julian Lewis, maybe he's the answer at quarterback, but that offensive line play and run game really has to improve. I like Brennan Marion, their offensive coordinator, maybe that. Go go offense.
- [13:36]
Michael Newman
They brought in some of the, some great transfers at receiver like Scudero coming from San Jose State. What, DeAndre Moore from Texas. A couple other guys too.
- [13:46]
Trey Newman
Yeah, that'll be interesting too because three of their first four games are on the road, including at Baylor, who we're talking about, you know, Dave Aranda here. That's a big game for both of them. And then, and then at Cincinnati as well. So play both, both these guys. They're all going to play each other. I was kind of. I came down more as far as who's going to be better between Baylor and Cincinnati, and I, I was kind of splitting hairs, I think, for a wider outcome variance. I think it's Baylor, so that's where I'm just kind of. Kind of lean with. I would pick Baylor here. You know, it's weird, though, because like Dave Aranda, they had Sawyer Robinson, who was a very productive quarterback, but they just. They couldn't do a whole lot around him. And, you know, you got DJ Lagway, he's got the talent. Maybe learning under Jake Spavital could be good for them. And it's just odd that their defense has been so bad with Aranda that being. That's being his calling card. And they give up 33 points a game in the league last year, but. But now he's kind of handing over the reigns to can former Kansas State coordinator and they get back a healthy linebacker, Trayvon Barnes. So I think the, the talent and then the. Like I said, the wide array of, Of a wider outcome variance, I think leans more to Baylor. So take a shot with them.
- [15:01]
Michael Newman
Yeah, no, there is a boomer bust element for sure with them because, you know. Yeah, if. If Klanderman and the turns around the defense, that, that could happen quickly with, you know, some of the experience transfers they brought. Brought in. And then it just. Yeah, it comes down to Lagway. Like, is he. I don't know. Like, this is his last chance. You got it.
- [15:18]
Trey Newman
He shows those flashes. Don't throw it in that, I guess.
- [15:22]
Michael Newman
Yeah. Okay, next question here. I've got a question for you. Which guru would you trust more or do you trust more with their retooled offense this year? So Sonny Dykes at TCU or Kenny Dillingham at Arizona State?
- [15:35]
Trey Newman
This one's weird for me because I, I don't never. I've never been the biggest Sonny Dykes guy, but he's been pretty impressive, honestly, the last few years, what he's done.
- [15:46]
Michael Newman
I'm a huge sunny Dykes guy.
- [15:47]
Trey Newman
Yeah, you are. I mean, the, the run he had, obviously the national title, I mean, incredible, of course. But even without that, it's not like they've been like playoff good in those other years, but they've had. They've put together a lot of wins over. Over, over his years. And. But on the other side, like, I really wanted to go with Kenny Dillingham because I saw him get the most out of Jeff Sims last year, and that alone Seems like quite an impressive feat, but I'm not sure I'm believing in Cutter Bowley or maybe even Mikey Keane. Arizona State, six of their top eight in yards returning or are not returning. And I just. I kind of like TCU bringing in Harvard's Jaden Craig at quarterback. Big guy. But through 48 touchdowns in only 21 games last couple years, they've got a new offensive coordinator who led Yukon to. To their best offense in quite a long time. They had just one interception last year. They get their leading rusher back. Back pain. And Dykes has mentioned this offseason he really likes his offensive. He likes both lines, actually, but he likes his offensive line. They've recruited in the top two or three of the Big 12 the last few years, so maybe some of that talent can kind of come develop and come to fruition. And I, I just think he's also motivated to prove that he doesn't need Josh Hoover.
- [17:05]
Michael Newman
I mean, he's finally got a quarterback that doesn't turn it over every other play. Come on.
- [17:08]
Commercial Announcer 1
Like.
- [17:09]
Michael Newman
No, I'm. I'm with you. I'm leaning towards TCU as well. I just kind of. I believe in Dykes. I just think he has a longer track record than, than Dillingham. Like we've just seen with Dykes. Just no matter where he is, no matter what the personnel is, I mean, he's not always putting out an elite offense, but it's always a good offense. And I think that's going to be the case again this year. And Gordon Samus, the offensive coordinator from UConn, he's bringing in, maybe they can help them run the ball better this year because that was. That's, you know, hasn't been the greatest, but he's a former offensive line coach. That's kind of his calling card. So I could see Jeremy Payne having a big year on the ground. And then even though the receiving corps loses a good amount, I still have faith in that position. They've recruited it really well. They've got Jordan Dwyer back, who had 700 yards last year. I think he can emerge into kind of their number one guy. They had a freshman last year who was on pace for a decent freshman season before getting injured at small. So I think they should be okay. And like you said, offensive line, not too bad with asu. I just don't like. Offensive line is a little bit concerning. And when you have a guy, Cutter Bowley, who seems like the favorite to be the starter, who, who was very interception prone in his first year as A starter last year, that's just a bad combo, like questionable offensive line, throwing a bunch of picks. I, I'm just shaking that. The, the counter argument to that though is ASU clearly has the, the way, way better receiving core, at least on paper. O' Marian Miller coming in from Colorado, Reed Harris from Boston College, like, on down the list. They, they just, they have a stacked transfer class of wide receivers. But I don't know for, I mean, for every guy coming, coming in, they, they're losing guys out the door. Really. Brown off to Texas, of course, Sam Levitt, lsu. Jordan Tyson of the NFL. They had a tackle draft in the first round. I just think that's. And the offense wasn't. I know they were trotting out Jeff Sims at the end of last year, but still wasn't. Wasn't great.
- [18:59]
Trey Newman
I'm really. It's interesting to, It'll be interesting to watch the Harvard quarterback Craig for tcu. I mean, that's a pretty big jump to go from Ivy League to this, but I, I, you got to trust dykes. Like, hey, he saw him, he likes him.
- [19:12]
Michael Newman
So that's, that's what it is for me. But Ryan made a good point when he was, I think he was the one who did the Big 12 quarterback rank. Or, or was that you? No, it was. I think it was Ryan.
- [19:22]
Trey Newman
It wasn't me. I was. Yeah.
- [19:23]
Michael Newman
And yeah, and he was bringing up like, guys don't ever come from the Ivy Ivy League.
- [19:28]
Trey Newman
It's a big jump.
- [19:30]
Michael Newman
Like, it just doesn't happen at quarterback. At least he, we, at least he didn't find an example, if I, if I recall. So, I mean, like as far as a transp.
- [19:39]
Trey Newman
In the NFL, but like.
- [19:40]
Michael Newman
Right. But he was talking transfers. Not that, that. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway. But I think he'll buck that trend. Okay, let's. Let's talk Heisman. So acc, we didn't have to go too deep. I don't think we'll have to go too deep here. But our goal, of course, in these preview episodes, we're going to name the Heisman Trophy winner with. Whilst. While naming as few players as possible. Like, but we want to be very sure we're getting the Heisman winner. So. Yeah. What do you, what do you got?
- [20:08]
Trey Newman
I mean, how. Okay for you to feel comfortable before we name these guys. How many, how many deep do you have to go? Like, I, I think I would only have to go.
- [20:18]
Michael Newman
I, I'm going three.
- [20:19]
Trey Newman
I almost would almost go. Yeah, I was going to say three, but I think I Could. I could. I mean, life on the line. I'd have to go three, but. But I would have to. Two. I can say two.
- [20:28]
Michael Newman
Yeah. Okay, well, give me two.
- [20:30]
Trey Newman
But anyway, so. So first one, I. You got to include Will Hammond. There's just. I know he might not play a full 12 games, but you're the Texas Tech quarterback. We, we all think Texas Tech is going to be, you know, winning the league or right there, maybe in the playoff. And so maybe Hammond just is able to really, you know, have lead a good offense for the Red Raiders. So he, he'd be one guy you got to have.
- [20:56]
Michael Newman
And they're going to be at a talent advantage in every single game they play. And he's, he's a good runner, so that helps the Heisman campaign if he can rack up some yards on the ground. So the potential is there that I agree. You got to name him at least, though. He's 45 to 1 to win.
- [21:12]
Trey Newman
He's like 18th in the odds. So it's not like he's a slam dunk.
- [21:16]
Michael Newman
No one has much of a shot here.
- [21:18]
Trey Newman
Now who else are you going?
- [21:19]
Michael Newman
I think I'll just name Bear Bachmeyer for BYU just because I think BYU could have, of course, an excellent year and the dual threat capability helps. Maybe he rushes for 800 yards. Maybe he somehow rushes for a thousand yards. I doubt it, but who knows? And they, they've got that Notre Dame home game that you brought up, that, that could be kind of a Heisman, man, Heisman moment there. If they can win,
- [21:44]
Trey Newman
like, I think it's because a lot the college football fans know him, but like, my God, if he was undefeated and beats Notre Dame, like that name will just become more popular.
- [21:53]
Michael Newman
Well, especially if you just make some of those just classic just tough yards plays that, that he's known for, then you could get a narrative surrounding him that he's kind of willing to. BYU to this season.
- [22:05]
Trey Newman
BYU fan. The one thing is their, their receivers are very questionable right now. If they, It's. If they were coming this year, if they were coming into this year with. Well, they lost like Parker Kingston, unfortunately, to like serious allegations. But like, if they at least had him coming back. But man, if they, if they were. If they had two or three receivers that you were like there, I would be maybe all in on BYU this year.
- [22:27]
Michael Newman
Oh, I, I'd be legitimately picking them as a dark horse national champion. But yeah, it's just they're receiving much production. They got nothing. They got nothing proven. And yeah, like, are they Going to be starting that Oregon transfer who. I know it sounds like Oregon, but he just hardly played. It's just. It's not good.
- [22:48]
Trey Newman
No, they're gonna. I mean, they can lean on the tight end and stuff, which they do, but. And LJ Martin, but it's like they really need to have that game breaker.
- [22:55]
Michael Newman
The thing is, though, in order to win the Heisman. Yes, they need that game breaker, but they don't. To make it the Big 12 title. Like, you know, they could.
- [23:03]
Trey Newman
Totally.
- [23:03]
Michael Newman
I'm.
- [23:04]
Trey Newman
Yeah, I'm not. Yeah, absolutely. It's just a difference between. Yeah, we'll see. But.
- [23:09]
Michael Newman
But we are talking Heisman and.
- [23:10]
Trey Newman
Yeah.
- [23:10]
Michael Newman
That's what holds him back. Is that receiving?
- [23:12]
Trey Newman
Yeah. And then. I don't know. Connor wigman, he's. He's 65 to 1. But if he somehow. If they. If Houston's able to beat Texas Tech mid September on the road, then Houston's a team people are talking about. And then obviously Wigman and you've got. He's got an All American preseason All American receiver Amari Thomas. And Wigman, surprisingly, he can run the ball. So. I don't know.
- [23:37]
Michael Newman
He put up big numbers on the ground last year.
- [23:39]
Trey Newman
I wouldn't bet him, but he's going
- [23:41]
Michael Newman
to have a couple opportunities. Yeah, I guess the numbers could kind of be there.
- [23:46]
Trey Newman
I.
- [23:46]
Michael Newman
He was. He just missed my cut. But that's okay. It was, you know, I. It was close. I'm just going to say Drew Messamaker just because that hits. If he puts up massive numbers like he did last year. It's not like jumping from the American to the Big 12 is the craziest jump in the world. And that North Texas offense last year was going to put up points on most Big 12 teams. So I think importing that, who knows? I mean, people talk about him as a legit NFL draft type prospect. I know it's early in his career, but still. Yeah, that's it. I mean, for me.
- [24:20]
Trey Newman
Yeah. I don't need to go any further
- [24:23]
Michael Newman
because again with Utah, I'm not going to name him, but.
- [24:27]
Commercial Announcer 1
Yeah.
- [24:28]
Michael Newman
I don't see how he's going to be better than last year. Like.
- [24:31]
Trey Newman
Right. And he didn't. That's the thing is he didn't even. He was so good last year and he didn't sniff the Heisman.
- [24:36]
Michael Newman
No. And.
- [24:38]
Trey Newman
And they might use Bird fickling more.
- [24:40]
Michael Newman
Yeah. Yeah. That'll be fun. Yeah. The K State. I know you like Colin Klein, but Heisman, we're talking.
- [24:47]
Trey Newman
I mean, I'm.
- [24:48]
Michael Newman
Unless unless he suits up. Unless he kind of. Yeah, you know.
- [24:51]
Trey Newman
But yeah.
- [24:52]
Michael Newman
Anyway, yeah, no, I. I think we're.
- [24:55]
Trey Newman
I think we're safe.
- [24:57]
Commercial Announcer 4
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- [27:51]
Michael Newman
on to our surprise teams and let's see. I'll go first here. So. Well I was just talking about the guy Drew Messmaker I'm saying Oklahoma State. So they were the worst Power 4 team by a wide margin last year. They were incredibly bad but it just was one of those seasons. It just the wheels fell off. They gave up terrible. You can't. I I know SP+ and and what other projection systems there you're going to wait past years I you almost just have to completely throw away Last year there's 50. There are 55 transfers coming onto this team. Completely new team. Throw last year's numbers out the window. They're over under a six and a half. The under is favored. I'm saying they go eight and four. I'm going to make a bold over call there offense could immediately be immediately be top 20 in the country. I'll say it could be better possibly but I'll go somewhat conservative with my bold call even though that's still pretty bold. But the the quarterback running back receiver trio elite in the Big 12 potentially of course Drew Mastermaker, Caleb Hawkins at running back and Wyatt Young of course all coming from North Texas. Their head coach Eric Morris bringing them. I really like Eric Morris as a coach so I could see him succeeding immediately. They also brought some a couple good offensive linemen with them so the offense is kind of ready made. They brought in a couple other good receiver transfers too. It's not just it's not just the North Texas guys so offense is going to carry them defensively. We'll see. They brought some you know I think five or six North Texas transfers on defense. The defense wasn't nearly as good as the their offense last year and it's just again completely transfer heavy so who knows. But. But yeah I'm just counting on that offense and the other thing is the schedule they Avoid BYU and Utah in conference. So who knows, I maybe a dark horse.
- [29:37]
Trey Newman
Yeah, okay, that's fair. No, I'm going to be rooting for them. That was. They were fun to follow at North Texas so my surprise is going to be Kansas State. They were so you look at them last year they were two and five and one score games and they, they dealt with some injuries. I don't love Avery Johnson. He's proven out not to match his, his recruiting hype but the, the point of view I'm coming at is he's at least, at least experienced and, and I'm thinking that new coach Colin Klein can get more out of him. Maybe we'll take a liking to a new system. I think it was just getting stale with, with Kleiman and crew there and, and we saw Klein work well with Marcel Reed last year at Texas A and M who has, you know, a somewhat comparable style. And I love the defensive portal additions that they have. They got a defensive end, Wendell Gregory who had 15 and a half tackles for loss as a freshman last year at Oklahoma State. Man, they wish they kept him. Makai Mason, a linebacker, had 15 tackles for loss at Louisiana Tech. Very good at stopping the run and we always got to bring this up. The best part about Kansas State is they avoid Texas Tech, BYU and Utah.
- [30:47]
Michael Newman
Yeah, that's, that's they got to get
- [30:49]
Trey Newman
big time and they're non conference. They got Nichols, Wazu and Tlane are all at home. So it's not exactly Murderers Murderers row there. I don't even know if I am a huge fan of Colin Klein, but I just think the situation and what he's got coming with him there is a potential there to surprise.
- [31:07]
Michael Newman
It's a very, very good situation for him to walk into in that the team like you said, from a record standpoint, really underachieved last year. Even though a classic team, they weren't nearly as bad as the record. So he's inheriting a better team than people think. And just the schedule, I mean it kind of reminds me of, I don't know like what Fran Brown walked into Syracuse with with a ready made schedule. Granted he also did a good job to bring in Kyle McCord, but. But yeah, it's just, it's pretty nice. Well, it's kind of what Matt Campbell is walking into at Penn State. Anyway, let's see at the unfortunately at the expense of one of the our Big 12 schools from this episode, Iowa State. So which unfortunately we won't be talking about that much. I don't think just because. Yes, they're all in Happy Rogers. Yeah, I like that. Higher. But you see the video of Get a year zero dog? No, I didn't, but I can imagine
- [31:59]
Trey Newman
it's not what is. I just.
- [32:02]
Michael Newman
Just watch it.
- [32:03]
Trey Newman
What do you.
- [32:04]
Michael Newman
I mean, Jimmy Rogers hot dog.
- [32:06]
Trey Newman
It's interesting. Like, I'm all for, like, letting a guy eat, but it's just. It's just weird.
- [32:12]
Michael Newman
All right. I need to check this out.
- [32:14]
Commercial Announcer 4
Oh,
- [32:16]
Michael Newman
no, no. Oh, no. Is this real? This can't be real.
- [32:22]
Trey Newman
That's what I thought. It can't be, right? Did I get duped? Well, it was supposed to be.
- [32:27]
Michael Newman
Supposed to buy. I mean, this. This freaks of AI right now. Posted by Hot Guy Enjoyer Wait a sec. I don't know. I don't have time to look into it right now. But that's crazy. If that's real. No way.
- [32:48]
Trey Newman
They just lost a touchdown in their power rating.
- [32:52]
Michael Newman
That's got to be just either AI or just. That's not even Jimmy Rogers. I don't even know.
- [32:57]
Trey Newman
I didn't take a deep dive into
- [32:59]
Michael Newman
it, but I don't picture him like that. But let's see. Jimmy Rogers, Iowa State. I don't know, man. I don't have time to research this right now, but that's crazy. That's so funny.
- [33:10]
Trey Newman
Yeah.
- [33:13]
Michael Newman
Let's see. Where are we disappointing teams?
- [33:17]
Trey Newman
Disappointing. Yeah.
- [33:18]
Michael Newman
I saw you. You already told me before who you're picking here, so.
- [33:22]
Trey Newman
But you would have been on them or would you?
- [33:25]
Michael Newman
I would have.
- [33:25]
Trey Newman
Oh, you would.
- [33:26]
Michael Newman
No, I would have. Yeah. As a. As a hater. I mean, hater is relative.
- [33:30]
Trey Newman
Yeah. Am I. Am I leading the. I'm leading it.
- [33:33]
Michael Newman
Yeah. Go. Go for it.
- [33:35]
Trey Newman
Sorry. Yeah, I was like. I was too. I'm too invested in this Jimmy Rogers hot dog thing now. No. So. Okay. The team that we're both aligned with, it sounds like, is Houston and Michael, I think you've brought it up on a couple other episodes, how they went 10 and 10 and three last year. But, you know, they weren't. They weren't as good as their record indicated. The metrics didn't like them. They were 50th in FPI, which was 9th in the Big 12. They were 6 and 1 in one score games.
- [34:03]
Michael Newman
And.
- [34:04]
Trey Newman
And last year they avoided some of the tough teams like Utah and byu, so a lot went their way. They. They lose a couple guys on defense that contributed 19 tackles for loss. And Connor Wigman, I mean, we just brought him up, I guess when we were talking about the. Heisman he played really well last year, but I don't know if he can, he can duplicate it. He had, he did have some good stats. 700 rushing yards, 36 total touchdowns. But you've got that five star Keyshawn Henderson waiting in the wings. Might, they might put him in if at any signs of trouble with Wigman. And I mentioned I do like him. I'm kind of like talking myself into him. They got Amari Thomas, he's great. But yeah, I just think when you big picture, a lot of people are putting Houston near the top of the Big 12, they're pointing to Willie Fritz. I still argue and have the take that he's a little overrated. Just took him so long at Tulane before he had a winning record and I think it was seven years before they had a winning record there. And now to his credit, the last two years at Tulane were very good and good for him turning Houston around again. But yeah, again that the 10 wins is, is misleading. And this year they have to play at Texas Tech, at Utah, at Kansas State, even a team like at West Virginia, late November won't be easy. And you know, I just, I just don't think they're going to get close to last year's record and I just want to see how they fare against a tougher Big 12 schedule.
- [35:30]
Michael Newman
Yeah, this to me is just about the expectations. Why we're saying they're disappointing because, like, everything's positive about the team. Like, Willie Fritz is doing a very good job. The team's got a lot coming back. They were pretty good last year, but they, but that's the thing is people think that they were very good last year and then they have a lot going back, man, they're going to be top of the Big 12 or near the top of the Big 12 or right in there with BYU. And I just, I don't see that at all. If you take the baseline of them last year, I think in ESPN's efficiency metric, they were 45th, something like that. So just not as good as the record. So, yeah, you can take a jump and be maybe approaching a borderline top 25 team. And I mean, that would be a pretty decent sized jump, but I don't know. I think a lot of people have them in their top 20, top 25. And I'm a little skeptical.
- [36:19]
Trey Newman
Who are you going with?
- [36:20]
Michael Newman
Okay, well, I'm saying Utah. I've been teasing this throughout the episode. So the over eight and a half wins is a decent favorite. So I think fans are expecting nine and three. I'm going to pick them to go under their 54th and returning production, which. It doesn't sound terrible, but the. The rest of the teams that were at the top of the Big 12 last year are returning much more. Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Arizona. So I think Utah, I'm not saying they're gonna be worse than all those teams, but I think they lose ground to all those teams and I think. I just think they're gonna really, really regret pushing Whittingham out because.
- [36:57]
Medical Advertisement Narrator
So bizarre.
- [36:58]
Michael Newman
I mean, not only is he a great coach, he took five potentially very good players with him that can immediately contribute at Michigan. And we just. We don't know if Morgan Scally is a good head coach. He was obviously a great defensive coordinator, but that doesn't always translate. Sometimes you end up with, you know, Lincoln Riley as. As an assistant, you know, kind of semi coach in waiting, and it works out like he did at ou. Sometimes you end up with Jimmy Lake at Washington. So where's Morgan Scally going to fall? I don't know, but just about this team specifically, though, kind of why I'm low is. So the, the offense, I just think is going to take a pretty big step back. Not only with, you know, without the. Well, they're losing Jason Beck as well as off as a coordinator. I didn't mention that. It's not just the players that Whittingham has taken with them. Jason Beck, I think, was a big difference maker as a coordinator. O Line loses all five starters. It's kind of just Devin Dampier and Wayshawn Parker in the backfield and a whole bunch of new pieces around them. So that. That's got to be a step back, a big one. And the defense last year was good, not great. And they lose their top four D linemen, they lose three of their top four defensive backs. So I, I don't. Listen, Utah always replaces those guys. It doesn't seem to matter who leaves. But the point is, I just. I don't think it'll be elite. I think it'll just be good again. And to me, that spells 8 and 4. They do have an easy schedule, that. Which helps, but.
- [38:25]
Trey Newman
Yeah.
- [38:26]
Michael Newman
Anyway. All right, well, let's. Let's get to our championship picks. Trey, who. Who are you going with?
- [38:31]
Trey Newman
Yeah, I guess now two leagues in and kind of two chalky picks here, but I got to take Texas Tech and I'm taking them over byu. I. I did kind of want to pick Utah, but I'm. What you just brought up was. Was kind of My, my thoughts is I, I really. Their skill talent is maybe as good as anyone but with way Sean Parker also at running back and then Dan Peer but they have no returning starters on both lines and that just has to count for something in, in even in today's college football. I, I know like you said they can replace but it just, it seems like a lot and losing an offensive coordinator. So, so yeah, I went with BYU getting Bear Bochmire back as a sophomore. I think he can improve. He was third in QBR as it was last season. And we, we did mention like that the drawback on BYU is we don't know who he's going to throw to. But getting LJ Martin back at running back is huge. Such Big 12 player of the year offensively. Four veteran linemen are back. You got an all conference center. So they're actually returning the most in the Big 12 on defense. So I just, I don't know. I, they're the, they might be favored in every Big 12 game other than maybe at Utah, but we'll, we'll see. But, but Texas Tech overall, like that's the, the one. They're just loaded. Even without Soresby. Will Hammond was plenty productive when he played. So it might be the Tulsa France or Tulsa Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis to start the year. As if Hammond's not ready to go. But we, I like Hammond. He can run the ball well. They've got 22 returning full time FBS starters. 12 that were from Texas Tech. That's tied for the most in the Big 12 in terms of their, you know, returning production. They'd be favored by double digits in every game. Cameron Dickey's back at running back over 1100 yards last season. Yes, they lose David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez on the defense. Two of the best players in the country on that side of the ball. But they got another, another top portal class. So they, I don't see them really skipping a beat on defense. They avoid BYU and Utah and, and, and last year, you know, especially in the playoff everyone pointed to that offense being down. But if, if Hammond's healthy, maybe the offense will be better. They were the 35th most efficient a year ago. Now they're going to have a run game at quarterback potentially. Maybe they can get sneak into the top 25, top 20 to match with a good defense and maybe they can put on a better showing in the playoff.
- [41:05]
Michael Newman
Yeah, no, you made the, the easy case as to why Texas Tech could, could win the Big 12. But I am, I'm just going to Pick an upset here. I. I'm going to go with BYU. I'll say BYU upsets Texas Tech in the. The Big 12 championship.
- [41:19]
Commercial Announcer 4
Good.
- [41:19]
Michael Newman
Gets. Gets revenge for the two big losses last year. And I mean, you pretty much nailed all the points, but just like the defense is just such a no doubt great unit, like even more continuity than Texas Tech has. Not as much talent, But I mean, eight starters back to a top 15 defense in the country last year that could be or will be just a really, really good defense. I know losing J. Hill at defensive coordinator hurts, but continuity of the depth chart is just too good to have it fail and then I'm just taking a shot. Well, I don't want to word it like that. I'll say another reason. I think. I think byu, even with, you know, Texas Tech full strength, could. Could potentially pull off the upset. But will Hammond, coming off the serious injury for Texas Tech, we just, we don't know. Like, like you said, he might not be ready for the start of the year. Maybe he's never quite back to himself and his running game is of course a. A big part of his game and. Or maybe he gets injured again, like, of course not cheering for anything like that. But. But yeah, I mean, we're talking. This game's at the end of the season, so who knows who's playing for quarterback for Texas Tech by that point. And Kalani Sataki is. I mean, I'll say this. If. If they don't win the Big 12, then Kalani Sataki will be coaching for his job next year.
- [42:39]
Trey Newman
Yeah, that's. That's right. That's right. Makes sense. Well, yeah, we'll see because with J. Hill's gone. So now we're can put the. We. It's a big measuring stick.
- [42:49]
Michael Newman
No, I'll just. The next defensive coordinator, I'll just say is carrying them. If. Yeah. Or it was still. There's still kind of a lingering J. Hill effect on that.
- [42:58]
Trey Newman
If they struggle, though, it was all J. Hill, so.
- [43:00]
Michael Newman
That's true. You're right. You're right. Okay, so let's see. We. We covered a lot of schools. We didn't. There's got to be a couple that we didn't name.
- [43:11]
Trey Newman
There's.
- [43:11]
Michael Newman
I'm looking.
- [43:11]
Trey Newman
So there's a team that. They have a brutal schedule. I don't expect them to make noise, but I think they're gonna be better. And that's West Virginia.
- [43:19]
Michael Newman
Okay.
- [43:19]
Trey Newman
I like. I like Rich Rod. I think they might get a little year two bump there in Morgantown. They've got Michael Hawkins, the Oklahoma transfer, as their quarterback.
- [43:28]
Commercial Announcer 2
They're.
- [43:29]
Trey Newman
I don't know. We'll see how they fare. They do have a. Like I said, a gauntlet schedule, but I just. They're going to get a couple teams at home that they might maybe. Maybe able to surprise.
- [43:41]
Michael Newman
There's. They had some. Some delayed transfers from Jacksonville State. I don't know why weren't they there last year. But bringing in Cam Cook at running back from Jacksonville State, that's. That's pretty exciting. Like the offense has to be better. It just like Rich Rod can't have that bad of an offense again. So the problem is for any jump that the offense makes you feel like the defense they just. They lose everybody. So that's.
- [44:06]
Trey Newman
They're not going to be good.
- [44:07]
Michael Newman
I don't know about that.
- [44:08]
Trey Newman
Hopefully improved.
- [44:09]
Michael Newman
How about UCF Scott Frost? The. They've got a pretty favorable conference schedule. The. The Alex Grinch. Weirdly the the defense was. Was better than. Than the offense last year and they return a decent amount. So the defense is kind of the. The more sure side of the ball for them or not kind of definitely. It's just Scott Frost needs to get the offense going with. They're bringing in Alonza Barnett from JMU at quarterback. So yeah, they could be okay.
- [44:35]
Trey Newman
Maybe. Yeah. Yeah.
- [44:37]
Michael Newman
I'm sad to say that we haven't named Kansas this episode because I have been holding on to Lance Leipold as best coach in the Big 12 or right up there and I just. It's tough. It's tough to.
- [44:52]
Trey Newman
It's funny.
- [44:53]
Michael Newman
It's really just putting faith about them this. No, it's just putting faith in Lightpole. That's really the only reason to think that they'll be good because replacing Jalen Daniels is. Is going to be tough. I like that they're bringing Cotel Nikki back. So. So pairing those you know Light pulled him Coachel Nikki should should be positive. But I don't know. Quarterback play just seems like it'll be an issue and just the roster in general is not too strong so they need to hit on a bunch of transfers which maybe they will.
- [45:21]
Trey Newman
Yeah. Yeah. And like you we talked about with Arizona or not Arizona, Iowa State. It's.
- [45:26]
Michael Newman
Yeah.
- [45:27]
Trey Newman
I mean they had a great run with Campbell but man they just got absolutely decimated. It's going to be hard for them to what it'll be to watch Penn State who might have a decent year with all their. With all their players given that Penn State has such that easy schedule.
- [45:41]
Michael Newman
I So I am. Don't. Do not have my finger on the pulse of the Iowa State fan base and. But are they.
- [45:51]
Commercial Announcer 2
Was.
- [45:51]
Michael Newman
It was pretty. I seem to remember that certainly the. The athletic director. I remember because I think they were. He was good friends with Matt Campbell. He was very. Yeah, he was very. What's the word? Cordial. And more than cordial. With. With Campbell leaving, like, he thanked him for everything he'd done. It seemed like there was absolutely no hard feelings. He stayed there longer than most coaches would have stayed, and he had this incredible opportunity at Penn State. So is the fan base like that as well? Like, is. If you're an Iowa State fan, are you kind of cheering for your. Your former Iowa State players at Penn State or.
- [46:22]
Trey Newman
No.
- [46:23]
Michael Newman
Are you kind of pissed that they all left? Yeah, no, I would be interested.
- [46:25]
Trey Newman
I don't think there's. I don't think there's animosity. Like. Yeah, I wouldn't. I wouldn't have animosity.
- [46:32]
Michael Newman
So just cheer for the Penn State Cyclones this year if.
- [46:35]
Trey Newman
Yeah.
- [46:35]
Michael Newman
If Jimmy Rogers doesn't pull off a miracle and, you know, make a run with a bunch of wazoo and other transfers. Yeah. Okay. Is that. Did we get to everybody?
- [46:47]
Trey Newman
I think we kind of at least hinted at. At everyone. Yeah.
- [46:51]
Commercial Announcer 3
Okay.
- [46:52]
Trey Newman
All right.
- [46:53]
Michael Newman
Well, thanks for checking out this episode of the College Football Bros. And we got the Big Dogs. The next couple weeks. Next week's the Big 10 sec. The week after that. I'm sure we might be doubling up on episodes soon because season's coming up. Week zero is approaching. It is. So. So, yeah, be sure you're subscribed, and we'll talk to you next week.