Predicting First Loss for Top 15 Teams

Summary

College Football Bros: "Predicting First Loss for Top 15 Teams"

PodcastOne | June 25, 2026 | Hosts: Michael, Ryan, and Trey Newman

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Episode Overview

This episode finds the three Newman brothers dissecting the 2026 college football landscape. Their challenge: predict when each of the Football SCOOPS aggregated Top 15 teams will suffer their first loss. True to form, the Bros blend thorough analysis with playful banter—debating schedules, roster changes, coaching turnover, possible upsets, and the ever-deceptive nature of early season college football. Along the way, they bring in creative speculation, familiar self-deprecation, and crowd-pleasing quips about their own track record with these picks.

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Key Discussion Points, Insights, and Picks

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Opening: Last Year’s Scorecard & This Year’s Challenge

• The Bros recount last year’s attempts—Trey posted a 5–10 record; Michael was a more respectable 7–8 ([00:51]). Both lament the difficulty and unpredictability of the exercise, particularly when top teams play each other early.
• Main goal for 2026: for at least one host to finish with a winning record at predicting first losses.
• Tone: Self-aware, joking about their misses and the randomness they contend with.

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No. 1 Ohio State

• Prediction: First loss Week 2 at Texas
• Michael: “You gotta say Week 2 again at Texas, just because obviously the Longhorns are pretty loaded. … It’s tight spread. I’m saying at Texas.” ([02:41])
• Both agree: With additional tough matchups (Indiana, Oregon), running the table is practically impossible for this Buckeyes squad.
• Ryan: “Definitely not picking Ohio State to go undefeated this year.” ([03:15])

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No. 2 Oregon

• Prediction: First loss Week 4 at USC
• The game “pretty clearly comes down to either game four at USC or game nine at Ohio State,” but the Bros point out a string of easy games between those two, making a USC loss far more likely. ([04:14–05:22])
• Michael: “I’m with you. Week four, late September. I’m thinking … about a touchdown or less favorite, but yeah.”
• Noted improvements in USC’s trenches, depth, and defense could be a factor.

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No. 3 Texas

• Prediction: First loss Week 2 vs. Ohio State
• Both agree on Texas starting with a win over Texas State, then dropping to the Buckeyes. ([07:22])
• Trey: “If I had to pick Texas’s first loss, it’s the Buckeyes.”
• Discussion notes Texas’s loaded offense, but questions about whether Arch can elevate in his second year.

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No. 4 Notre Dame

• Predictions:
  • Michael: Undefeated Regular Season
  • Trey: First loss Week 7 at BYU
• Michael outlines that ND’s only challenges are BYU and Miami, each with win odds above 65%. “There’s a 35% chance, give or take, that they go undefeated,” he says ([08:48]).
• Trey: “I want to take an upset… I’m actually going for it. I’m saying at BYU mid-October.” ([10:08])
• Trey highlights BYU’s potential for a rowdy home upset and new ND personnel in the backfield and at QB.

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No. 5 Georgia

• Prediction: First loss Week 6 at Alabama
• Both skip possible upsets at Arkansas, vs. Oklahoma, and focus on the big SEC clash.
• Trey: “Even despite my hesitations on the Tide, I’ve got still some semi-faith in DeBoer getting the most out of his QB and the offense. … I’ll just take the home team in Bryant-Denny.” ([10:14–10:53])
• Michael notes Georgia was tripped up by Bama last year, and neither finds OU or Vandy intimidating enough to bet on an earlier loss.

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No. 6 Indiana (Defending National Champs)

• Prediction: First loss hosting Ohio State (October)
• The Bros walk through an “easy” early schedule, expecting Indiana to be undefeated before the Buckeyes visit, which is a toss-up game.
• Michael: “North Texas, Howard, Western Kentucky … Nebraska at home 6–0, so it’s a …” ([12:07])
• Trey: “Big Ten title rematch. Hoover … comfortable they’ll get to that point, 6–0. … That’s one of the games of the year in the Big Ten.” ([12:54])

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No. 7 Miami

• Predictions:
  • Trey: First loss Week 5 at Clemson
  • Michael: First loss at Notre Dame a month later
• Trey goes with a “head-scratcher” Cristobal special at Clemson, hedges on Clemson’s defense returning to form ([14:03]).
• Michael uses spread projections to justify ND as the most likely stumbling block but acknowledges Miami could drop a random home game to Pitt or FSU.
• Michael: “[Against ND] I don’t think that offense is going to be able to keep up with Mensa and Fletcher and Tony and Barkate.” ([15:07])
• Both cite Miami’s habit of odd upsets and uncertainty in the ACC pecking order.

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No. 8 LSU (Elaine’s First Year)

• Prediction: First loss Week 3 at Ole Miss
• Both agree Clemson (week 1) and La Tech are safe. Ole Miss is circled as a “toss-up”; setting calls it “one of the most insane environments … in the history of college football.” ([18:13])
• Trey: “We know it’s a night game, so Grove all day is just going to be lit. Just so much time to get liquored up for bashing Lane.”

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No. 9 Texas A&M

• Prediction: First loss Week 4 at LSU
• Both take the Aggies to get by Missouri State, Arizona State, and Kentucky, but fall at Death Valley.
• Trey: “A&M last year went into Death Valley and kind of smoked LSU, but I think it’s going to be a different team with Lane.” ([19:02])
• Michael and Trey discuss A&M’s OC changes, LSU’s improved defense.

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No. 10 Ole Miss

• Prediction: First loss Week 1 vs. Louisville (agreement)
• Tough call: number crunching points to either Louisville (neutral site in Nashville) or LSU, but both ultimately take the opening-week “Jeff Brohm special” upset.
• Michael: “I’m just … I love Jeff Brohm, so I’m going with my boy… Week one alone can be tough no matter who is coaching.” ([21:46–23:26])
• They note uncertainty with Ole Miss’s O-line replacements and Braum as a schematic mismatch for Ole Miss’s Pete Golding.

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No. 11 Oklahoma

• Prediction: First loss Week 2 at Michigan
• Clean agreement: both buy into Michigan’s new era under Whittingham and top recruit Bryce Underwood, seeing it as a tough ask for OU to go into Ann Arbor and win.
• Trey: “Jason Beck will be able to generate more offense than Matier and the Sooners in this game.” ([23:36])
• Also highlight low total expectations—could be a defensive, grind-it-out game.

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No. 12 Texas Tech

• Prediction: Undefeated Regular Season (agreement)
• The easiest schedule in the Top 15, likened to Notre Dame’s. Bros deeply skeptical of Tech’s implied 29% chance to go undefeated but can’t find a game with higher loss probability.
• Michael: “It’s crazy though what they avoid in the Big 12. … Avoid BYU, Utah, K-State…” ([27:52])
• Debate about Houston (week 3), Arizona State, Arizona, and TCU as possible upset spots, but both stick with unbeaten.

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No. 13 USC

• Prediction: First loss Week 5 hosting Oregon
• Trey: Points to a potentially tricky trip to Rutgers (cross-country, possible ‘look-ahead’), but both expect the more likely stumble to come against Dante Moore’s Oregon.
• Michael: “They are still have a clear talent advantage on USC. … That at Rutgers game is just … they’re just good enough to be a little scary.” ([30:51])
• Both express wariness about the O-line depth and the high ceiling Oregon brings.

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No. 14 Alabama

• Prediction: First loss Week 6 vs. Georgia
• The Bros debate a slew of possible stumbling blocks: at Kentucky (Week 2), Florida State, at Mississippi State, South Carolina, but remain “boring chalky” and pick Georgia.
• Trey: "The odds of Alabama starting out 5–0, way less than 50 percent, probably under 40 percent. ... I still think getting to 5–0 and losing to Georgia is the most likely." ([31:36])
• Note: Kentucky and Shane Beamer’s South Carolina are “sneaky tough” and may surprise with an upset.

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No. 15 BYU

• Predictions:
  • Trey: First loss Week 5 at TCU
  • Michael: First loss Week 2 vs. Arizona
• Trey likes BYU at home, expects Provo magic vs. Arizona, but sees a loss at TCU and new QB Jaden Craig.
• Michael, self-described “Sataki hater,” takes the earliest likely loss: “Arizona in week two... a chance to be a single digit spread.” ([35:00])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Texas Tech’s schedule:
  “The toughest game on Texas Tech’s schedule is maybe at home against Houston. … There’s like four or five games in the running, but they’re not that tough.” – Michael ([26:14])
• On Louisville-Ole Miss Week 1:
  “I love Jeff Brohm, so I’m going with my boy. … Week one alone can be tough no matter who’s coaching.” – Michael ([21:46-23:26])
• On Alabama’s early season slate:
  “Three of those are probably around a two touchdown spread: at Kentucky, hosting Florida State, at Mississippi State. Just tricky enough you could slip up in any of them.” – Michael ([31:36])
• On Provo upsets:
  “With BYU’s offense … there’s a chance if BYU is pretty solid Provo’s gonna be rocking. Could be a game day game.” – Trey ([10:08])
• On their own success rate:
  “Our goal then is to have a winning record … the white whale for us ...” – Michael ([01:29])
• On college football chaos:
  “If anyone out there is a sharp bettor and can explain that to me, please do.” – Michael re: Texas Tech’s odds ([29:15])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:41] – Ohio State's schedule and Texas preview
• [04:14] – Oregon’s possible stumbling blocks (USC, Ohio State)
• [07:22] – Texas vs. Ohio State deep dive
• [08:48] – Notre Dame’s undefeated odds
• [10:14] – Georgia’s SEC challenges and Alabama matchup
• [12:07] – Indiana’s easy first half and Ohio State showdown
• [14:03] – Miami’s tests/Clemson vs. Notre Dame debate
• [17:34] – LSU’s new era, biggest early risk at Ole Miss
• [19:02] – Texas A&M likely to fall at LSU
• [21:46] – Ole Miss’s swing games; Louisville upset pick
• [23:36] – Oklahoma’s date with new Michigan
• [26:12] – Easiest schedules: Notre Dame, Texas Tech analysis
• [30:18] – USC tricky stretch, Ducks as ceiling game
• [31:36] – Alabama’s low odds to reach Georgia game unbeaten
• [34:06] – BYU: TCU and Arizona as upset spots

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Summary for Listeners

The 2026 “First Loss” episode is a playful, info-packed, and self-aware ride for fans hungry for preseason analysis. The Newman Bros balance numerical projections, power ratings, and classic hunches to break down every Top 15 team’s landmines, upsets, and likely pitfalls, all with a twist of humor and humility about last year’s picks. Notable themes include appreciation for the chaos of college football, skepticism at narratives around “easy” schedules, and an encouragement for bold picks (with some chalk for safety).

For “Fourth Bros” and casual fans, this episode lays out the entire early 2026 season road map—with every top contender's possible banana peel—and will give you a leg up for debates, watercooler conversation, or just prepping your own pick’em pool.

Transcript

[A]

This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block. Or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it, ready to make anything online make sense. There's no place like Chrome. Check responses. Setup required. Compatibility and availability varies.

[B]

18. Welcome to the college football bros. I'm Michael Newman.

[A]

And I'm Trey Newman.

[B]

Okay. On today's episode, we are predicting when each team in Football SCOOPS aggregated top 25 will suffer their first loss of the season. Actually, we're just going through the top 15, but let's, let's review how we did last year. So, Trey, how'd you do?

[A]

I went 5 and 10 in our top 15 and we were just looking at it. What did you do?

[B]

7 and 8.

[A]

That's pretty good because I was noticing that I think three of the games they had top 15 teams playing each other. So you were kind of. I picked kind of both sides, so I was bound to lose a few of those, but good for you.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. I think I probably went for all those splits also and then trying to think which ones. Well, the big, the big loss that was unfortunate was Georgia game three at Tennessee.

[A]

Oh, yeah, I was, I had. That was my pick too.

[B]

That was our pick for their first loss.

[A]

Gave it up.

[B]

Yeah. So I guess our goal then is to. Is to have a winning record go eight and seven. Yeah, that's kind of the, the white whale for us because the year before 2024, I went, I also went 7 and 8. Okay, let's. Let's see one of us try and get a winning record here.

[A]

And it actually makes me realize that week one isn't quite as loaded as last year, at least.

[B]

Insane. Yeah.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Hard to beat that.

[A]

Okay, Brendan Sorsby, what do we got this week?

[B]

Oh, well, you know, there actually is.

[A]

I know every week there's something new,

[B]

but so I guess NFL supplement. The NFL said no, we're not holding a supplemental draft for you. You've got the, the gambling issues. Sorry. We're going to pass. So I, I guess he's just going to have to sit out for a year. Although I don't want to say anything definitively because then we keep saying he's going to be on every week. Yeah, yeah, he'll be Oregon's third string by the time this next episode airs or something. But yeah, I Think he's just going to sit out, wait till April, prepare for next year's draft. That's, that'll be very interesting to see where he ends up with a year off. Yeah. Anyway, okay, so number one in football scoops top 25 is Ohio State.

[A]

Yeah. And I am very confident, Michael, you and I will have the same pick here. You gotta say week two again at Texas just because obviously the Longhorns are pretty loaded. We talked about it. I think that was last week's episode about obviously Arch coming back with his experience, but bringing in Hollywood Smothers and Cam Coleman to go along with, you know, Ryan Wingo already on the outside and then Colin Simmons on defense. Like they're, they're pretty stacked. So that would be the game. I think it's, it's around pick them, give or take right now. So it's tight spread. I'm. I'm saying at Texas.

[B]

Yeah. And by the way, for all of these, we do have the option of not picking any game being their first loss. We have the option to, to just pick a team to go undefeated. We didn't do that, I don't think with any team last year I list correctly. So, yeah, we'll see if it happens. Definitely not picking Ohio State to go undefeated this year. With you mentioned the at Texas game in Week 2, they also have at Indiana and they host Oregon. So going undefeated is a very, very tall task. So yeah, I'll say they beat Ball State and then most likely losses week two at Texas.

[A]

All right.

[B]

I just don't think Arch like that Texas offense in 2025. Oh, really struggled in that game one. They were up and down all season long, but you got to think they're going to be much, much better.

[A]

Yeah, it'll be a different showing. Doesn't mean they'll win, but different showing. All right, let's go. Moving on to number two, Oregon. The Ducks. What do you think about them?

[B]

Yeah, so this one pretty clearly comes down to either game four, they go to LA at USC or game nine at Ohio State. If the Ohio State game were right after the UFC game, like a week after, then I would say the odds of either of those games being their first loss are basically identical. Identical. But that is not the case because even if. So even if Oregon starts out 4, 0, meaning they beat USC just to get to that, that Ohio State game undefeated, you got to beat ucla, Nebraska at Illinois and against Northwestern, which individually, each of those games sounds pretty dang easy. And they'll be a huge favorite in all of them. But in aggregate there's at least a 20% chance you lose one of those. So. Yeah, I'm fairly comfortably. I like USC to be the most likely first loss.

[A]

I'm with you. Yeah. Week four, late September. I'm thinking just kind of looking at, was looking at prior ratings and stuff, I'm thinking the Ducks are about around a touchdown or maybe, maybe a hair less underdog, so.

[B]

Or they'll be at favorite Oregon.

[A]

Yeah, Oregon would be about a touchdown or less favorite, but yeah. And SC at that point will have had a few games to kind of work out Gary Patterson's defense. So hopefully they show some, some stride there this year and then, and then the offense of course should be in rhythm by then. So we're agreeing.

[B]

Yeah. And I'm hoping USC is. Well, I know that USC will be better in the trenches this year. Of course that's been for several years. Several years. Kind of the difference between USC and Oregon or at least one of the differences. But the O line, everybody coming back. What's nice is for USC is basically everybody coming back on the offensive line, but it's probably not going to be the same five starters. There are some other guys developing, maybe even a freshman in there that, that'll get the start. So I think the depth is going to be. Yeah, exactly. The depth will be really good on that side of the ball and just everyone getting better will help. And hopefully that defensive line, the five star true freshman coming in and bringing in some, some nice transfers there will be able to hold up a little better against Oregon than they have in years past. But. Okay, number three is Texas. Are we just going to, are we going to lock in a split here?

[A]

Well, it's hard for me because I already know my clairvoyant side. They're going to lose at Tennessee Week 4. So, so it's whether or not I think they're unbeaten at that point and, and, but no, I do have to go. Ohio State, week two. I mean, we talked about Texas at the beginning, but obviously Ohio State with Julian Sain back and then Bo Jackson, Jeremiah Smith, Chris Henry will have a game under his belt on the outside and then Patricia. It's going to be interesting. That defense, they obviously lost so many first rounders and so many NFL draft picks. But. And I was kind of, I don't know, I didn't know what to think about Patricia being back. But he did so well with that defense last season. But we'll see like with a new regime and not just every NFL first Rounder, so. But yeah, anyways, bottom line, if I had to pick Texas, first loss, it's the Buckeyes.

[B]

Agreed. Yep. They'll beat Texas State in that first game and then most likely is the losing to Ohio State. If I'm, if you were pinning me down to pick that game right now, I would, I'd pick Ohio State to get the win on the road, but I think so too, for the sake of this episode. Picking the split.

[A]

Yeah. All right, so then that leads us to. This one's interesting. Could be our unbeaten one, number four, Notre Dame. Of all of them, this is the one you would pick unbeaten? I think so.

[B]

Well, we'll see. We might have another one. But it's so. It's crazy how easy their schedule is. Every game is mid to high 90s win probability, except for three. Obviously part of that is because Notre Dame is so good. So it's a combination of, I think Norden's really good and the easy schedule. But the three games that are potential losses are at BYU hosting Miami and then to a lesser extent hosting SMU. And even, because even all those, they're 70% or higher to win. So because of all that, I'm choosing no losses for Notre dame. There's a 35% chance, give or take, that they go undefeated. The odds they lose to BYU, well under 35% odds they lose to Miami at home, under 35%. So I just don't think any individual game is, is. Has high of a loss probability as just running the table.

[A]

Interesting. I'm surprised you didn't even take the, the Miami one.

[B]

I love Miami this year, but at home we, we talked about it. What was it last week or week before? That spread's already out and Notre Dame favored a touchdown, so.

[A]

Yeah, no, I get it.

[B]

I mean, that's not a huge spread, I get it, but it's just.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, to me, I, I want to, I want to take a, I want to take an upset. I don't want to go with the unbeaten. So I'm actually going to say I'm going for it. I'm saying at byu mid October week, week seven. I'm figuring like looking at that, they're over a touchdown favorite probably, but it's not going to be two touchdowns. So I'm kind of guessing around 10ish, give or take. But you know, with BYU's offense, you got Bear Bachmeyer maybe taking a step forward off his good freshman year. Sataki seems to always have the defense playing well and just, man, there's a chance if BYU is kind of pretty, pretty solid like Provo is going to be rocking. It could be like a game day game. And in this year it'll really be the first test for C.J. carr and, and the running backs, the new running backs that they have maybe not as productive without Love and Price. So more could fall. I could, if he has to make a last, last minute drive, he could, you know, make a Heisman case. But I'm, I'm going to go with the shot. Byu. That would be a fun game.

[B]

Okay. Number five, Trey. We have the Georgia Bulldogs.

[A]

Yes, we do. And I am going to say this one, I'm going to skip at the, at Arkansas. Week three, I'm going to skip hosting Oklahoma. Week four, they got Vandy before. After that they're not going to be the same without Pavia. I'm going, I'm shuffling ahead to week six, October 10th at Alabama. You know, obviously at this point Alabama we don't know the quarterback but. And even despite my hesitations on the Tide, I've got still some semi faith in DeBoer getting the most out of his QB and the offense. And this has been, you know, the new big SEC rivalry the last few years and I'll just take the home team in Bryant Denny. Yeah.

[B]

This was Alabama was Georgia's first loss last year and I'm with you. I'm gonna pick it to be their, their first loss for 2026. It's close though because it kind of comes down to how you feel about OU and Vandy in the two weeks before that game. Like if you're high on both of those two teams then the odds that Georgia gets to that Alabama game still undefeated are lowered and of course makes that a worse pick. But I'm just, especially with ou, I'm just. Well I guess OU and Vandy I'm not particularly high on with Oklahoma. I do like what they did in the portal at receiver. I like the returning production on the offensive line but it's, it's just hard to trust that offense until I see it all come together with John Mattier of course coming back from a kind of. Well, he had that great surgeon that did a great job on the thumb but potentially it, it still had an impact last year. So we'll see if he's fully healthy this year. It looks like he will be but. But either way still have some questions there. And then Vandy with possibly starting a true freshman at quarterback not super high on that game cropping up and being an upset so yeah, I'll say they take the L at Alabama.

[A]

All right, let's go to the defending national champs, number six, Indiana.

[B]

This is an easy one because they, man, they're going to start out. Of course they'll start out ranked very high and they will continue to be ranked high throughout the first half of the season because I don't see any losses. North Texas, Howard, Western Kentucky, there's a, there's an easy 3, 0. Northwestern at home 4 and oh, at Rutgers 5 and oh, Nebraska at home 6 and oh, so it's a.

[A]

Of course at Nebraska, but still.

[B]

Oh, is it at Nebraska. Okay, fair enough.

[A]

But yeah, they're, I mean that's still, it's.

[B]

Of course you could lose that. You could conceivably lose that. Rutgers could see, of course, conceivably lose that Nebraska, but that's a Fairly high probability. 6, 0. And then they host Ohio State and that game's a pick, em. So give me Ohio State as the first loss.

[A]

Yep, I'm with you. Big Ten title rematch. Hoover. At that point Josh Hoover is going to have had half of a season against that softer competition to get all the kinks out and be comfortable in that offense. So I'm pretty comfortable they'll, they'll get to that point. 6 0. But, but yeah, that's, you know, one of the games of the year in the Big Ten, if not the game of the year.

[B]

Let's see. What do you think the odds are that Indiana does get to that Ohio State game still undefeated.

[A]

I'm not good at this, but I'll say, well, what would you. Tightest spread on the grass dead on at Nebraska? I mean, I don't even know. What are they going to be favored, like 14? Is that. I'll say maybe not that high. 12?

[B]

No, no, I think that high. I think. Okay, a little more. Yeah.

[A]

And again, I don't know what. I couldn't even tell you what a 14 point favorite equates to, but I'll say 88%.

[B]

I have it as 81% in the right range there.

[A]

All right, fair enough. I'll take it. I'll take it.

[B]

All right. Moving on to number seven. Another team. You could. Well, no, you couldn't. I was going to say you could consider taking them to go undefeated. That would be pretty dang bold.

[A]

My aim. All right, so this one, this one. Oh, I am going to, reluctantly. So they have a pretty favorable, well, arguably favorable start at Stanford, Florida, A M at Wake. Who that not? I guess not. Obviously not a Total gimme Central Michigan and then I'm reluctantly taking at Clemson October 3rd. I just, we don't, I don't think anyone really knows how Clemson's going to look this year. Obviously fell flat last season. We, I don't know what to make of and not necessarily high on Chad Morris being back at offensive coordinator. You got a two year backup in Vezina at quarterback. So like for this pick to hit, I'm just hoping the defense get plays back to a kind of a Top Tip 15 form which it kind of always was prior to the last couple seasons. And then you got a guy like Will Helt at end, defensive end could be trouble for Mensah. So there's a shot that Clemson gets back to, you know, a top 20ish form and, and at home that would be a game they could pick off Miami.

[B]

Yeah, that was one of the options I definitely considered. You could really only consider that game, that Clemson game or like a month or so later they go to Notre Dame. And those were, those were the two options. So I did my kind of back of the envelope math on this. I tried to project all the point spreads in every single game and to come up with my answers for this episode. I had at Clemson as a 26.2% chance of being Miami's first loss of the season. So 26.2%. And then I had the Notre Dame game being 26.3%. So like obviously within, within the margin for error. And so it was close enough to where I just decided, okay, I don't care about what the numbers say. What is just my gut tell me what do I, what do I feel like picking? And I'm saying that they will, they will be Clemson. I just, I don't see it. Clemson wasn't great last year. They don't have a ton of returning production. I don't think that offense is going to be able to keep up with Mensa and Fletcher and Tony and Bar Kate. Like so I'm picking Notre Dame to be the first loss.

[A]

But yeah, so obviously your 26.3 obviously includes like beating Florida State and Pitt at home. Which it's funny like, yeah, that was part of the reason I actually kind of. Now you laid it out number wise. But I laid it out in my head. I'm like, honestly you never, first of all, Cristobal team, there's always for whatever reason has a head scratcher. And I just like pit sometimes you just never know what you're going to get out of them. And then actually hell Florida State last year they beat Alabama week one. But that was kind of part of my thought where I was like, I'm going to jump ahead of it and take the Clemson game.

[B]

Yeah, I mean there's only, there's a 37% chance that Miami gets to that Notre Dame game, still undefeated, so they'll probably lose somewhere. But, but if they do get to it, it's just such a tough game that there's, it's a high probability loss.

[A]

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[B]

Yeah, I, I've talked, I just talked about how I'm, I'm bearish on Clemson and that is LSU's first game of the season. So I'm, I'm not picking that. I think they'll, they'll take care of Clemson in game one. Then they play Louisiana Tech, that's a win. And then they go to the game that we have talked about a lot on the podcast this offseason. Week 3 at Ole Miss going to be one of the most insane environments, I'm going to say in the history of college football. And I like, I actually stand by that. I don't see how it couldn't be. So that one's a toss up and I think clearly the, or at least not. Yeah, clearly the most likely first loss.

[A]

Yeah. And lsu, they got a. Overall is a very tough schedule. I mean three of the first four games, Clemson at Ole Miss and hosting Texas A and M, like that is. It's a tough opening slate.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But yeah, I'm with you. LSU being probably a double digit favorite at home to Clemson, not going there. So I'm with you Ole Miss. I want to see how LC looks against Clemson and then kind of same for Ole Miss. I want to see the new staff against Louisville. But just to your point about the, the atmosphere in the game, we know it's a night game and so just the Grove all day is just going to be lit just so much time to get liquored up for. For bashing Lane.

[B]

It's going to be. I can't wait. Okay, number nine on football scoops aggregated ranking is Texas A and M. Yeah.

[A]

And for Texas A and M, I'm. I just. I just alluded to it. I'm going to go at LSU Week 4, end of September. Now, A and M last year went into Death Valley and kind of smoked lsu, but I think it's going to be a different team with. With Lane. Blake Baker's defense should be a year better with the talent brought back. And surprisingly, I. I'm like, I. Again, we brought it up last year about SP plus, but SP plus has LSU the number two defense, which kind of surprised me off the bat. But we'll see. We'll see. They have. They have a loaded roster, but that still seemed rich, but we'll see. Either way, it should be. Should be good. And the Auggies. Auggies. The Aggies offense needs to kind of overcome losing Colin Klein as offensive coordinator. So I leaned. Leaned there.

[B]

Yep, that was an easy one. They'll beat Missouri State, they'll beat Arizona State, and then Kentucky, though. Who knows Puncher's chance for their home games. Kentucky, but. But yeah, I'll say they. They lose in week four at lsu.

[A]

Yep. All right, so then let's move on. We just talked about LSU, Ole Miss. Let's talk about number 10, Ole Miss. What do you think?

[B]

Well, you brought up that Louisville game, saying you're looking forward to that, seeing how Ole Miss looks, and I agree. So their schedule starts out Louisville, then Charlotte, then of course lsu. So it comes down to Louisville and lsu. I plugged in the draft Kings odds because they have odds for Louisville, the Louisville and LSU games, and it had hosting LSU by a narrow margin as the most likely first loss. But I saw that. I looked at my Excel spreadsheet and I was like, no, I'm. I'm going against the numbers here. Jeff Braum coaching mismatch over Pete Golding. I'm just. I'm. I love Jeff Braum, so I. I'm going with my boy. And then I realized fanduel also has spreads for, I think both of these games. Or maybe they just. Maybe I. They had one for the Louisville game, and I used DraftKings for LSU game anyway, and there the odds were just different enough that it does have Louisville as the most likely first loss. So I'm going. I'm with fanduel. I'm picking Louisville as Ole Miss, his first loss. I'll say Louisville gets the upset. Lincoln Keane Holtz, even though he's pretty. He's totally unproven, I think he's likely to be an upgrade over Miller Moss and he's going to add a little bit of a run element that Miller Moss did not have. And defensively, Louisville has been pretty good lately. They've got two proven pass rushing defensive ends coming back. And Ole Miss, that is. There could be a question mark entering the season, at least two NFL draft picks at tackle gone. So maybe Louisville can take advantage.

[A]

Yeah, man, this one's. Gosh, this is really tough for me. I'm. I'm waffling right now between that Louisville and lcu and I'm like, who. Who has the answer for Trinidad Chambliss?

[B]

I.

[A]

Man, ah. What was the spread week one, do you know? It's in Nashville. I know that. That Louisville Ole Miss game.

[B]

Yeah, that's right. That's right. I think it's like, let's see.

[A]

I don't know, it was like six, seven.

[B]

Louisville. I have. As a. Or not. I have the. The betting odds had them as. Or, sorry, ole miss as 66% chance to win. So that would make the spread. Yeah. Maybe six and a half or so.

[A]

I don't know.

[B]

But it was 66% based on the money line.

[A]

Oh, man. Yeah. Why not? Well, gosh. Yeah.

[B]

All right, let's tell me your. What is. What is. What is in your head? Like.

[A]

Well, okay, so like, let's put it this way. So in my head, I'm thinking Louisville to me just seems like the right pick. But then I could because. But then I'm looking at the LSU game and obviously, you know, point spread wise that that game wants. If they get by Louisville, it's like a pick them. But I'm also just not like. Part of the reason I'm kind of leaning towards the Louisville game is I'm also. If it did get. I'm not even 100% like all in on LSU right now. So if I was more. If I was very confident in lsu, I'd be like, all right, roll the dice. But I'm gonna. I'm gonna say Louisville just because week one alone can be tough no matter who is coaching. And so with it being the kind of the first, you know, true game for that Ole Miss staff, I'll just say, you know, it's a little. It'll be a tougher, tougher game for them.

[B]

Okay, so we're in agreement there.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Number 11, Oklahoma. And I don't think you'll have to think as hard for this one.

[A]

Yeah. Now this one at Michigan week two. They host UTEP week one. But I know it's a new regime in Ann Arbor with Whittingham, but I'm trusting them. They're an early two two and a half point favorite and under Bryce Underwood is going to have a warm up before this and they're probably going to show very little but I just think Jason Beck will be able to generate more offense than Matier and the Sooners in this game and and Jay Hill, your boy at defensive coordinator could stymie the Sooner's offense even more. So honestly when I'm thinking about this game, you could see a low total.

[B]

Yeah, it's. You could, you could for sure. And I agree. I'm. I'm taking Michigan as, as the first loss. Just in general, the more I think about this game, the more excited I get for it because both of those teams I think you can maybe depend more on the defense. Certainly in Oklahoma's case. And for Michigan though the offense was probably underrated last year. I know Underwood through the air was hit and miss but the running game was so effective that it was a really good offense. But I just think both offenses this year have a little bit boomer bust, especially Oklahoma. But they just, they both have the chance to be elite because with Oklahoma I mentioned in another answer of just they dressed receiver offensive line I think will continue to get better Matier if he's healthy, if he looks like the wazoo mater from a couple years ago then maybe everything takes off and then with Michigan it's just yeah the Jason Beck factor with Bryce Underwood in year two it's a chance and they've got a good offensive line and I, I don't know.

[A]

I, I both.

[B]

I just am. This game will tell us a lot about both offenses and looking at both

[A]

teams schedules like it's. It's almost must win to for you know, if you want to be alive in the playoff hunt down the road just because they both have some pretty tough schedules towards the back half. So it's like you can't afford a loss like this.

[B]

Yeah. If it plays out like you're saying with a low total then I think we're not going to see either of these quarterbacks in the the Heisman odds. But maybe one of them shows out then I could see either John Material or Bryce Underwood popping up into the top five of Heisman odds if they have a good game here.

[A]

All right, then let's go to number 12, Texas Tech.

[B]

Again, every time I look at this schedule I am shocked at how easy it is. I talked about that with Notre Dame, but Notre Dame plays at byu. They play against Miami and well actually also we talked about Miami having an easy schedule too, but they've got Notre Dame even at Clemson, which doesn't sound too hard. But compared to the Texas Tech schedule, it's.

[A]

Murderers are easy.

[B]

They have nothing. The toughest game on Texas Tech schedule is maybe at home against Houston at Oklahoma State. I don't know. There's like four or five games that are all in the running to be the toughest game, but they're not that tough of games. DraftKings implied odds for Texas Tech to go undefeated is 29% and I just don't see any game on the schedule as even close to a 29% chance of a loss. Not that it needs to be for, for me to pick another game as an answer, but I just actually it does need to be higher than 29% at least. So take back what I said there. But yeah, undefeated is my pick.

[A]

I'm actually. Yeah, I misspoke earlier. But yeah, no, this is my, I'm going undefeated as well. The over. What are they over ten and a half is minus 220. So yeah, and you alluded to maybe Houston week three being one of their tougher games. And like you, I think Houston's record last year was better than the team strength. And I think I look at Arizona State at home mid October, but I'm not sure Dillingham maybe has the unit this year at Cincinnati, but Satterfield job just seems a little wobbly. Like if you, if you said okay, they're going to lose a game, I honestly might say they play on Halloween Arizona. I just think Brit Brennan kind of redeemed himself last year and they got Noah Fufita back and he bounced back last year having a good year but being so experienced being in Lubbock might not faze him but I just, I can't pick that up set. So I'm, I'm also going unbeaten. It's crazy though what they avoid the Big 12, is it? They got avoid BYU, Utah, BYU and Utah alone. Just crazy.

[B]

Do they avoid K State also?

[A]

Yeah, I've got their schedule up. They play, they don't play K State. They do have to play tcu and that's about the tough. The last game of the year is, is tcu. They play at Baylor and TCU to, to finish the year.

[B]

Yeah, I mean avoiding BYU and Utah are the two. The two main things. So I will say that 29% chance that I cited based on DraftKings as. As their odds of going undefeated. It feels way too high. Maybe there's something I'm missing. But with. With Will Hammond at quarterback coming off of a torn acl when I was going through and projecting the spreads for every game of the season, I came up with, I'm a little embarrassed to say this but like 15 chance that they go undefeated. I'm probably wrong on that obviously. And so I wasn't doing over on that. Yeah, of course he would. And I didn't do a simulation or anything that would account for the fact, the possibility that maybe Texas Tech just ends up better than we think they are. I just used kind of a static power rating but. But still 29% like the spreads that I. The how high you would have to make the spreads in their games to get to that high of odds of winning every single game. I just, I couldn't get there. But if anyone out there is a sharp bettor and can explain that to me, please do.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Number 13. My USC trojans. This is an easy one I think.

[A]

Fighting on. So here we go. It's interesting. So they play San Jose State, Fresno State in Louisiana. Ryan likes to say Louisiana Lafayette. But so I'm looking at 30 now this game at Rutgers on, on September 19th is a little tricky to me. It's. It's cross country. Rutgers does have some weapons like Antoine Raymond at running back, thousand yard receiver, K.J. duff. But the other part of this, the other element is this is this is the week before they play Oregon. So I don't always buy into the look ahead thing but it, you know, it's just the team's going cross country and they know they got that big showdown next. But I wasn't going to pick Rutgers, but let's just put that I wouldn't be shocked. So I'm. But I am going to say Oregon the following week. Just what is that? Late October. So I think they'll be 40 before losing to Oregon. But they host Oregon so it's not, you know, it's not like it's an Austin.

[B]

That wouldn't be late October, would it?

[A]

I'm sorry, late September? Yeah, it's September 26th. But the thing with Oregon is they're obviously loaded and you've got Dante Moore coming back. I really am very curious on them just without both their coordinators. But it's on the same side for USC seeing Gary Patterson against this defense or this offense. We'll see if he can slow down. You know, Davison and Moore and Stewart on the outside, but could be high scoring. But I just think the Ducks have too much on both sides.

[B]

Yeah, they, they are still have a clear, clear talent advantage on usc. So I am in agreement, I'm going with Oregon as the most likely first loss, but I am also in agreement that that at Rutgers game is just, they're just good enough to be a little scary. Like there's like a 20, 25% chance maybe that USC loses that game. Which when you start thinking about 25% chance of losing, then what are the odds of that thing being close in the fourth quarter? That gets way higher than 25%. So that's just, it's a scary one. I don't want to watch that game at all. I just want to just before going

[A]

to us or Oregon.

[B]

Yeah, I can, you know, lose to Oregon. That's fine.

[A]

I'm used to no shame. No shame. Okay, let's go to number 14, Alabama.

[B]

I think this one is closer than it looks on paper. Like, it looks like five easy wins before you get to Georgia. But three of those are probably around a two touchdown spread you got at Kentucky hosting Florida State and at Mississippi State. Like those are just tricky enough that you could certainly slip up in any of them. And then you're hosting South Carolina also before Georgia and that's maybe even a bit closer than two touchdowns depending on where the how the betting market sees South Carolina this year. So the odds of Alabama starting out 5, 0, way less than 50%, probably under 40%. But even with that, I still think getting to 5 and 0 and losing to Georgia is most more likely than any other game being their first loss. So just I was tempted by that South Carolina game. If I was more confident in South Carolina this year and Shane Beamer, then I would have picked that.

[A]

But going with Georgia, it's funny actually before that I was even more intrigued by the at Kentucky game week two with Will Stein and we'll see what.

[B]

No, actually you're right, Trey. That's, that is, that's a better, that would be a better pick than South Carolina.

[A]

Okay. I mean, yeah, we'll see what like South Carolina Lenora seller sellers, if he can get some help this year. But Will Stein coaching up Minchi, the quarterback transfer from Notre Dame on the road. I mean, we saw obviously Alabama lose at Florida State last year, week one. And we don't know, we just don't know about Russell or Mac at quarterback. I mean we might look back on this and be like it was shame on us for even questioning DeBoer. But that's, that's sneaky, sneaky tough.

[B]

But I Kentucky's going to pop up and beat somebody this year. Like I just think with Will Stein they're going to and the transfer portal class that they brought in, they are a little bit dangerous. So yeah, no, I undersold that that game.

[A]

Yeah. So I'll, I'm not but I'm not bold enough to say that. So I'm going boring chalky with you on Georgia Week 6. Yeah. The experience of Georgia could be the difference in that game.

[B]

I had Georgia as a 23% chance of being Alabama's first loss and Kentucky would be 20% chance of being the first loss and then South Carolina 19 chance. So yeah, you could reasonably go with any three of those. But we agreed last team of the episode, Kalani Sataki's byu. I already know they're losing game one, but what about you Trey?

[A]

They're, they're yeah. Utah Tech. They've.

[B]

Utah.

[A]

They've got their number. But I am going to say I mentioned, I mentioned I kind of like Arizona this year. So week two they host Arizona might be logical but I just think BYU too tough in Provo and what should be a top 20 defense should get will get enough stops I'll say at TCU. I think that's week five. October 3rd. Sonny Dykes got a new toy in Jaden Craig. He's a Harvard transfer. I really kind of missed the boat on this. I didn't realize this but yeah, he was the, the all time leader in passing yards and touchdowns at Harvard and he's got some mobility thinking. They're hoping, you know he'll keep better possession of the ball, no turnovers and avalos on defense. He's improved the TCU defense, it's not, they're not world beaters but they're going to need to get some turnovers on Bachmire. So I'm going to but I'll say TCU gets them.

[B]

I am a Sunny Dykes fan so I did consider that Game four at tcu you could also just say hey, they're going to be 50 and host Notre Dame in game six and that could be their first loss. But you know me, Sataki hater. I'm picking the first possible L I can Arizona in week two. Yeah, I mean you brought it up with with Brent Brennan. They really improved a ton last year with Noah Fafita coming back fifth in the Big 12 in returning production from a team that was a borderline top 25 caliber team last year. So that is is not an easy game. I think that game has a chance to be a single digit spread. Certainly not triple digits. Definitely not that.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So give me, give me Arizona to go into Provo and pull off the upset.

[A]

Bear down, Bear down.

[B]

Bear Bachmeyer down. All right, that will do it for this episode of the College Football Bros. We will see if we can get one of us can get to 8 and 7 this year. But yeah, hope you enjoyed the episode. If you want to support us, Patreon.com college football bros. 5 bucks a month gets you bonus episodes and access to our Discord server. So we would really, really appreciate that. But other than that, we will talk to you next week.