Podcast Summary: Common Sense with Dan Carlin – Show 322: Betting on Long Shots

Release Date: September 1, 2021
Host: Dan Carlin

Introduction: A Shift in Focus

In this episode of Common Sense, Dan Carlin addresses his decision to pivot away from covering current events, particularly political commentary, and delve into more historical and analytical discussions. Recording the episode at night, Carlin reflects on the polarized reactions from his audience when he chooses to alter the show's usual content.

"I'm not talking to preach to a choir. And Lord knows, after I went on for a while, there'd be fewer and fewer of you left because eventually I'm going to piss all of you off."
[00:45]

Carlin hints at the controversial nature of his departure from current events coverage, emphasizing his desire to engage listeners in deeper, less partisan conversations.

The Afghanistan Conflict: A Historical Overview

Carlin provides a comprehensive historical context of the United States' involvement in Afghanistan, tracing back to the Soviet invasion in 1979. He underscores the enduring complexity of Afghanistan, often dubbed the "Graveyard of Empires," highlighting its challenging terrain and geopolitical significance.

"Afghanistan has this nickname, rolls off the tongue... the graveyard of Empires."
[08:30]

He draws parallels between the Soviet withdrawal and the U.S. disengagement, noting the cyclical nature of foreign interventions and their often messy conclusions.

U.S. Strategy and Consequences

Delving into the strategies employed by the U.S., Carlin critiques the reliance on military intervention without adequate nation-building efforts. He references military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, emphasizing the importance of aligning military actions with political objectives.

"War is policy by other means."
[19:50]

Carlin argues that the failure to establish a stable, self-sufficient Afghan government led to prolonged conflict and unintended consequences, including the rise of extremist groups.

Blowback and Long-Term Implications

Exploring the concept of "blowback," Carlin discusses how U.S. actions in Afghanistan have had lasting repercussions, contributing to the rise of groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. He references historical accounts, including Zbigniew Brzezinski's strategies during the Cold War, to illustrate the origins of these complex dynamics.

"Blowback is an equal opportunity force. And it's positively Newtonian when you think about it. For every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction."
[52:15]

Carlin critically examines the long-term impacts of supporting the Mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War, suggesting that these actions sowed the seeds for future terrorism.

The Difficulty of Disengagement

Carlin emphasizes the inherent challenges in withdrawing from Afghanistan, likening it to attempting a strategic retreat in a tumultuous storm. He highlights the complexities of ensuring a non-messy exit, which involves careful timing and substantial groundwork—elements often lacking in real-world scenarios.

"Disengaging from Afghanistan... can take forever."
[34:10]

He draws comparisons to the Vietnam War, pointing out that premature withdrawal can lead to rapid deterioration and loss of gains made during military intervention.

Policy Failures and Accountability

The podcast delves into the accountability of U.S. leadership decisions, critiquing both past and present administrations' roles in the prolonged conflict. Carlin advocates for a meritocratic approach in political appointments, where persistent policy failures disqualify officials from making future decisions.

"If you were somebody that thought that was a good idea, we were going to be welcomed with flowers and liberators. If that was you, that's the mistake."
[1:25:30]

He challenges listeners to consider the effectiveness of current advisors and policymakers, urging a reassessment based on historical outcomes rather than partisan loyalty.

Human Costs and Societal Ripples

Addressing the human toll of the Afghanistan conflict, Carlin shares personal anecdotes to illustrate the widespread suffering caused by prolonged war. He speaks of his relative’s struggles post-deployment, highlighting the ripple effects of military engagement on families and communities.

"My relative, did his three tours in Iraq and finally got in touch with him. He wasn't talking to the family... I'm not sure I'm safe to be around."
[1:15:20]

Carlin underscores that the true cost of war extends beyond the battlefield, impacting mental health and societal stability.

Future Outlook and Regional Dynamics

Looking forward, Carlin speculates on the future of Afghanistan post-U.S. withdrawal. He discusses the potential for regional powers to influence the country's trajectory and the possibility of internal resistance against extremist groups emerging organically within Afghan society.

"Maybe we'll see some balancing act stuff going on there. And who knows how long the Taliban will be around."
[1:05:45]

He posits that lasting change must come from within, relying on local efforts rather than continued foreign military presence.

Lessons from History

In concluding, Carlin reflects on the importance of learning from historical precedents to inform current and future foreign policy decisions. He criticizes the repetition of past mistakes due to a lack of genuine historical understanding and accountability among decision-makers.

"What we should learn from history is simply people's actions, conduct, and the choices that they made earlier in recent history and then take that into account when it comes to listening to them again."
[1:10:00]

Carlin urges a more informed and critical approach to policy-making, emphasizing the need for leaders who learn from past errors to avoid perpetuating cycles of conflict.

Conclusion: A Call for Reflective Discourse

Dan Carlin wraps up by expressing his frustration with the current state of partisan discourse, advocating for a platform where nuanced and honest conversations can take place without immediate dismissal based on political alignment.

"Just need a place where I can speak my mind, be free, have conversations, really get into this sort of stuff and have people listen for more than one second."
[1:23:10]

He extends an invitation for listener support, reinforcing his commitment to providing thoughtful and in-depth analysis beyond the constraints of typical political commentary.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

1. "I'm not talking to preach to a choir..."
   [00:45]

2. "Afghanistan has this nickname, rolls off the tongue... the graveyard of Empires."
   [08:30]

3. "War is policy by other means."
   [19:50]

4. "Blowback is an equal opportunity force..."
   [52:15]

5. "Disengaging from Afghanistan... can take forever."
   [34:10]

6. "If you were somebody that thought that was a good idea..."
   [1:25:30]

7. "My relative, did his three tours in Iraq and finally got in touch with him..."
   [1:15:20]

8. "Maybe we'll see some balancing act stuff going on there..."
   [1:05:45]

9. "What we should learn from history is simply people's actions..."
   [1:10:00]

10. "Just need a place where I can speak my mind..."
    [1:23:10]

Dan Carlin's "Betting on Long Shots" offers a deep dive into the intricate and often flawed nature of U.S. foreign interventions, using Afghanistan as a pivotal case study. Through historical analysis and personal reflection, Carlin encourages listeners to critically assess past actions to inform more effective and humane policy decisions in the future.