Podcast Summary: Common Sense with Dan Carlin
Episode: Show 323 - Gas Up the Cold War
Release Date: March 1, 2022
Introduction
In episode 323 of Common Sense with Dan Carlin, titled "Gas Up the Cold War," Dan delves into the complexities surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Released on March 1, 2022, the episode examines the historical context, geopolitical strategies, and the potential long-term ramifications of this significant global event. Carlin approaches the topic from his perspective as a "forward-thinking pragmatist," offering insights grounded in history and personal viewpoints.
Personal Biases and Anti-War Stance
Dan begins by outlining his personal biases, emphasizing his general anti-war stance. He clarifies that his opposition to war isn't rooted in religious, ideological, or philosophical beliefs but stems from a pragmatic understanding of warfare's often ineffective outcomes in achieving long-term policy goals.
- “I'm just generally an anti war person.” [00:00]
Carlin references Carl von Clausewitz's principle of achieving "policy by other means" and critiques how military interventions frequently fail to meet these strategic objectives, citing the U.S. involvement in Iran in 1953 as an example where short-term gains led to long-term instability.
- “The blowback from that's still affecting us today.” [00:00]
Modern Implications of Military Actions
He discusses how modern warfare, amplified by instant global communication, exacerbates the consequences of military actions. Unlike conflicts a century ago, today’s interventions result in immediate global scrutiny and enduring repercussions.
- “This is a whole different thing and adds even more fuel to the argument that this is an instrument that has a very hard time in the 21st century achieving your policies...” [00:00]
Carlin underscores the moral distinction between invading and defending, acknowledging the simultaneous suffering of civilians worldwide due to conflicts that might not receive as much attention as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Historical Parallels: The Cuban Missile Crisis
Drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis, Dan highlights the dangers of great powers encroaching near each other's borders and the thin line that can lead to nuclear confrontation.
- “The last time we had any threat to go nuclear was probably the 1980s.” [00:00]
- “Nikita Khrushchev had sent to the American President, John F. Kennedy... 'we should not pull on the ends of the rope of war.'” [00:00]
He emphasizes that the proximity of military forces to national borders heightens tensions and the risk of catastrophic escalation.
NATO Expansion and Russian Reaction
Carlin critiques the expansion of NATO closer to Russia’s borders, a stance he has maintained since the Clinton administration. He recalls early warnings about the potential for NATO’s westward movement to provoke Russia, which he argues has now manifested in the Ukrainian invasion.
- “Expanding NATO military cooperation closer and closer to Russia's borders is... something that was going to backfire.” [00:00]
- “Big countries like Russia don't stay down forever.” [00:00]
He points out that the historical context of Russia’s geopolitical sensitivities and the Monroe Doctrine’s lasting influence shape current tensions.
Vladimir Putin’s Leadership and Decision-Making
Dan delves into Vladimir Putin’s role, questioning his strategic objectives and the alignment between Putin’s personal ambitions and Russia’s national interests. He speculates on the possibility that Putin’s actions may not serve Russia’s long-term well-being but rather his retention of power.
- “I can't figure out how Russia's doing in a conflict like this because I don't know what their victory conditions are.” [00:00]
- “Absolute power corrupts absolutely.” [00:00]
Carlin discusses the risks inherent in autocratic systems where a single leader holds disproportionate power, potentially leading to irrational and destructive decisions.
- “The individual psychology of one human being is inordinately important...” [00:00]
Implications for Global Security and Defense
The episode explores the resurgence of Cold War-like dynamics, including increased global defense spending and militarization. Carlin anticipates that defense contractors will benefit and nations will adopt more aggressive military postures, further entrenching international tensions.
- “This is going to be obviously a boon for defense contractors all over the world.” [00:00]
He warns of the precarious balance in nuclear-armed states, where the fast-paced nature of nuclear command systems lacks adequate oversight, heightening the risk of accidental or intentional nuclear conflict.
- “Nuclear weapons... argument against the kind of control and oversight...” [00:00]
Ukrainian Resilience and Civilian Involvement
Dan praises the resilience and bravery of the Ukrainian people, noting the significant role of civilians in the resistance against Russian forces. He draws historical comparisons to World War II, highlighting how civilian participation can bolster national defense.
- “What we've seen from Ukraine so far is incredibly brave.” [00:00]
- “I have a hard time encouraging [guerrilla warfare], I just will say that what we've seen from Ukraine so far is incredibly brave.” [00:00]
He acknowledges the moral and strategic complexities when civilians are drawn into conflict, often facing reprisals and collective punishment.
Future Scenarios and Potential Escalations
Carlin speculates on various future scenarios, including the potential for escalation to nuclear warfare. He expresses concern over Putin’s nuclear brinksmanship and the possible use of nuclear weapons as leverage or deterrence.
- “Vlad Putin has gone from playing chess to playing poker.” [00:00]
- “Somebody wrote that... you can feel lucky, punk.” [00:00]
He warns that the normalization of nuclear threats undermines decades of effort to establish nuclear non-proliferation norms.
Conclusion and Reflections on Leadership
In concluding, Dan reflects on the importance of leadership and the dangers posed by autocratic rulers like Putin. He expresses hope for the resilience of the Ukrainian people and emphasizes the need for the international community to navigate these tensions carefully to prevent further escalation.
- “My heart goes out to the people of Ukraine.” [00:00]
- “It's cost enough Russian and Ukrainian lives already.” [00:00]
Dan reiterates his anti-war stance, advocating for policies that prioritize long-term stability and peace over short-term military gains.
Notable Quotes
- “I'm just generally an anti war person.” [00:00]
- “The blowback from that's still affecting us today.” [00:00]
- “The last time we had any threat to go nuclear was probably the 1980s.” [00:00]
- “Expanding NATO military cooperation closer and closer to Russia's borders is... something that was going to backfire.” [00:00]
- “Absolute power corrupts absolutely.” [00:00]
- “What we've seen from Ukraine so far is incredibly brave.” [00:00]
- “Vlad Putin has gone from playing chess to playing poker.” [00:00]
- “My heart goes out to the people of Ukraine.” [00:00]
Final Thoughts
Dan Carlin's "Gas Up the Cold War" provides a comprehensive analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, intertwining historical context with contemporary geopolitical strategies. His reflections offer listeners a nuanced understanding of the complexities involved, advocating for thoughtful, long-term approaches to international conflicts.