Recording date: 7th April 2026

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered significant disruptions across global energy markets, creating what Samuel Pelaez, President & CEO, and Derek Macpherson, Executive Chair at Olive Resource Capital, view as structural investment opportunities extending well beyond the immediate crisis.

While the Strait handles 20% of global crude oil, the more consequential impacts affect liquefied natural gas, petrochemicals, and fertilizers, where 20-50% of certain products originate from the Persian Gulf region. This supply shock is forcing countries like Japan and South Korea to fundamentally reassess their energy security strategies.

Glencore emerged as the primary beneficiary in thermal coal, as reduced Qatari LNG availability extends the operational life of existing coal-fired power plants. The company controls 30% of seaborne coal trade and recently expanded its portfolio by acquiring Teck Resources' coal assets in 2025. Coal represents 30% of Glencore's EBITDA, with additional upside from its commodity trading division, which profits from supply chain disruptions.

Woodside Energy and Santos offer compelling value propositions for Asian LNG markets. Australian producers sit 40% closer to key importers than Qatar, reducing shipping costs and insurance premiums, yet trade at half the valuation multiples of US peers like ExxonMobil and Chevron. Rolling spot contracts should reflect elevated pricing in second-half 2026 results.

The disruption of 20% of global ammonia supply coincides with Northern Hemisphere planting season, driving dramatic appreciation in fertilizer stocks. CF Industries has gained 40% since the Strait closure, while Woodside's recently acquired Texas ammonia facility enters production at opportune timing.

The team emphasizes discipline, separating conviction from entry points. They anticipate any diplomatic resolution could trigger profit-taking in names that have appreciated 40%+, providing better risk-adjusted entry opportunities. The core thesis rests on structural supply chain shifts prioritizing security over cost optimization—a behavioral change likely to persist for years regardless of near-term geopolitical developments.