CONFLICTED | Trump, Netanyahu, and the Iran Endgame
Hosts: Aimen Dean (ex-Al Qaeda jihadi turned MI6 spy), Thomas Small (former monk and filmmaker)
Date: February 17, 2026
Episode Overview
In this urgent, detailed episode, Aimen Dean and Thomas Small abandon their planned Boko Haram series to deliver a real-time analysis of rapidly evolving US-Iranian negotiations. Drawing on deep insider sources, the duo explores the behind-the-scenes diplomatic maneuvering between Iran, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel—especially after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent White House visit. They critically explore Iran’s internal power struggles (particularly the hardline IRGC), the shifting positions of American and Israeli policymakers, and speculate on the likelihood and timing of a military conflict targeting the IRGC.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Background: Change of Plan in Response to Escalating Developments
- The episode opens with the hosts noting the fast pace of developments and why the originally scheduled episode had to be postponed.
“At the end of the day, we live in tumultuous times and we have to respond to events as they happen.” – Aimen Dean [04:15]
2. The Evolving Iran-US Negotiations
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Role of Oman and Saudi Arabia:
- Iran initiates dialogue through Oman, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian contacting Saudi Crown Prince MBS to signal willingness to transfer enriched uranium to a third party (likely Russia).
- Saudis are cautious, scarred by being “thrown under the bus” by the Biden administration in pursuit of rapprochement with Iran, and fear the risks of publicly siding with the US only for Washington to change course.
“He is still scarred tremendously by the experience when the Americans ... threw him under a bus ... in order to win the favor from Iran.” – Eamon Dean [09:50]
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Iran’s Offer:
- Iran offers to transfer all 411 kg of highly enriched uranium to Russian custody, monitored by the IAEA.
- The offer is termed a major concession, but the Americans have four demands:
- Relinquish current nuclear stockpile
- Halt enrichment capability
- End ballistic missile programs
- Dismantle regional proxy military networks
- Iran’s concession only begins to address item 1.
3. The IRGC Power Dynamic
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IRGC’s Internal Unity and Opposition:
- The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) unites hardliner “zealots” (fixated on revolutionary ideology) and “economic managers” (controlling a huge proportion of Iran’s economy).
- Both factions are united in rejecting any curbs or inspections on Iran’s ballistic missile programs or proxy networks, motivated by historical fear of humiliation and regime collapse (referencing Saddam and Gaddafi).
“They say the ballistic missiles and the proxies are the wings by which the falcon of the Islamic Revolution can fly. We cannot give up either of these.” – Aimen Dean [15:30]
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IRGC’s Position:
- IRGC now acting almost autonomously, warning even Supreme Leader Khamenei not to accede to moderate demands for deeper concessions.
“We started to realize that actually the IRGC has become a state within a state. Now it’s the first time it’s no longer receiving orders from the Supreme Leader.” – Aimen Dean [19:53]
4. Economic Pressure and US Sanctions
- US Treasury Admission:
- Public acknowledgment that US sanctions deliberately created a dollar shortage in Iran, contributing to recent protests.
“He framed it in the way that the US created a dollar shortage in Iran. Did they do it? Yes, they've been adamant and they've been doing it extremely efficiently.” – Aimen Dean [23:07]
- Impact:
- US used financial “acupuncture,” making life difficult for Iran by shutting down currency routes tied to Venezuela, Mauritius, etc.
5. Netanyahu’s DC Visit: Israeli & US Strategic Recalibration
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Visible vs. Hidden Objectives:
- Netanyahu arrives with military brass (not diplomats), indicating Israel is preparing for kinetic options, not seeking another deal.
- Public statements are seen as “noise”—true intentions are determined by military preparations, not press leaks.
“Let’s not pay too much attention to words... They are designed either for adding pressure or to muddy the waters or to create confusing noise. Let’s look at action.” – Aimen Dean [28:10]
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Massive US Military Build-Up:
- Aircraft carriers (e.g., USS Gerald Ford), F-15s, F-35s, refueling tankers, and air defense/electronic warfare assets surge into the region.
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Strategic Shift: Focus on the IRGC
- Israel proposes to Trump a new strategy: Don’t pursue regime change; instead, target and “defang” the IRGC as the source of instability and terrorism, while leaving the Iranian army and government untouched.
“The problem is the IRGC… You are just trying to do a regime change, but without explicitly doing a regime change.” – Aimen Dean [35:24]
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Domestic Politics:
- Trump concerned about American casualties and the stigma of “regime change”. Israeli elections in October mean Netanyahu also needs a strong, decisive posture.
6. The New Narrative: “War on Terror v2.0”
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Reframing the Conflict:
- The US prepares to roll out a campaign tying the IRGC to attacks on Americans, e.g., Lebanon (1982/83), Khobar Towers (1996), Iraq IEDs, October 7, etc.
- Prepares public opinion for a limited (anti-terror) war, not an Iraq-style regime change.
“Soon we will start to see articles and comments about how the IRGC is responsible for… American blood on their hands.” – Aimen Dean [39:01]
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Strategic Objective:
- Remove/destroy IRGC’s ballistic missiles, proxies, and asymmetric naval assets to cripple its regional threat, but not remove the regime outright.
7. Negotiations Update: Iran’s “Sweetened” Offer
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Latest IRGC Offer (to be delivered in Geneva):
- Transfer enriched uranium abroad, mothball centrifuges under supervision.
- Promise not to develop new longer-range missiles (IRBM, ICBM), but keep and continue producing SRBM & MRBM (the real threat to Israel/Saudi Arabia).
- Proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will be offered partial political integration, not disarmament.
- In exchange, Iran demands all sanctions lifted and the IRGC de-listed as a terrorist organization everywhere.
“...this negotiating position is a clown show. This is comical. They haven't really budged at all.” – Thomas Small [47:35]
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Host Analysis:
- The terms are described as unserious and reveal no real movement—likely designed either to string along the US, or to justify an eventual conflict.
8. Predictions: Imminence of Conflict
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Military Timelines:
- The US likely waits until after Ramadan (mid-March–April) to act, so as not to inflame Muslim sentiment globally.
- The new narrative will frame any coming military operation as a coalition anti-IRGC effort (like the anti-ISIS coalition), not “war with Iran.”
“It will be a kinetic war, but it will be a kinetic war like we’ve never seen before. It’s all about disabling … the IRGC from first retaliating and … operating and coordinating.” – Aimen Dean [53:15]
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Coalition & Regional Dynamics:
- Many Gulf and non-Gulf countries (not named on-air) are secretly eager to join a coalition against the IRGC, with only Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt expressing opposition.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On US and Israeli strategic calibration:
“You don’t take the head of your air force to America with you … if you are trying to find a peaceful solution. Here, however, we see mostly his delegation consisted of military personnel.” – Aimen Dean [31:30]
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On IRGC’s economic grip:
“The IRGC controls $250 billion of assets within Iran, between 40 and 45% of the Iranian GDP.” – Aimen Dean [15:30]
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On the art of negotiation:
“This is the embodiment of ... the art of diplomacy: to keep repeating, saying nice doggy, nice doggy, while holding a rock behind your back.” – Aimen Dean [52:26]
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On the possible timeline/campaign style:
“Probably in five weeks, six weeks, we might see a global coalition ... severely degrade the IRGC, possibly snuff it out for good. And wouldn’t that be, on balance, a good thing for the world?” – Thomas Small [56:17]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Background and shift in episode schedule – [04:00–04:30]
- Iran’s negotiating overture through Saudi Arabia – [07:40–09:50]
- US and Saudi calculation, American conditions – [12:32–14:04]
- Inside the IRGC, internal unification – [14:23–20:45]
- US sanctions’ real role in Iranian unrest – [22:00–24:33]
- Netanyahu’s Washington visit and military build-up – [27:00–32:26]
- Reframing US strategy from ‘regime change’ to ‘hit the IRGC’ – [35:24–39:01]
- Emergent anti-IRGC, anti-terror narrative – [39:01–41:18]
- Details of the ‘sweetened’ Iranian offer and US reaction – [43:25–50:20]
- Business reluctance to engage post-sanctions – [50:20–52:04]
- Forecast for military action and regional alliance formation – [54:08–56:17]
Takeaways
- Iran’s internal struggle means it can’t (and won’t) give on missiles/proxies, only on nuclear issues.
- US and Israel are recalibrating away from ‘regime change’ to a highly targeted, anti-terror narrative against the IRGC.
- A large coalition strike may come after Ramadan—with preparations already visible.
- Despite media confusion, military moves indicate a high likelihood of kinetic action targeting IRGC assets, rather than all-out war or regime decapitation.
- Business community remains wary even of a post-sanctions Iran so long as the IRGC is in power.
Original tone preserved: Direct, witty, occasionally irreverent, with expert but accessible analysis and a clear focus on policy machinations and realpolitik rather than idealism.
Aimen’s closing summary:
“This is the longest bluff in strategic history … [the Americans are] saying nice doggy while holding a rock behind your back.” [52:26]
For those who haven’t listened:
This episode delivers a uniquely authoritative, fast-moving breakdown of the latest US-Iran-Israel maneuvers, focusing on the IRGC’s power and the limits of diplomacy in the face of military preparations. With a war potentially just weeks away, this briefing contextualizes not just news headlines but the core calculations driving policy on all sides.