CONFLICTED – Episode Summary

Episode: Why China’s Rise Cannot Be Stopped
Date: February 5, 2026
Host: Thomas Small
Guest: Professor Kishore Mahbubani (Ex-Singaporean Ambassador to the UN, Scholar, Author)

Episode Overview

This episode of CONFLICTED with Thomas Small features a powerhouse conversation with Professor Kishore Mahbubani, a renowned Singaporean diplomat and thinker. The central theme is the rise of Asia—particularly China and India—and what this irreversible shift means for world order, Western societies, and the future of global cooperation. Drawing on deep professional and personal experience, Mahbubani examines why the 21st century is inescapably the "Asian Century," explores Western and Asian philosophies, critiques Western hypocrisy, considers global governance, and spells out both opportunities and risks in the new multipolar era.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Unstoppable Rise of Asia – Is the Asian Century Inevitable?

• Historical Context: From year 1 to 1820, China and India were the world’s top economies. Their modern resurgence is a "return to normalcy" rather than an aberration.
• Rapid Catch-Up:
  • In 2000, the EU economy was eight times larger than China’s; by 2026, they’re equal, and by 2050 the EU will be half China’s size.
  • Similarly, the UK’s 2000 economy was 3.5 times India’s; by 2050 India will be four times bigger.
• The Demographic Revolution:
  • The Asian middle class swelled from 150 million (2000) to 2 billion (2020), projected to reach 3.5 billion by 2030 ([08:18]).
• Insight: “The return of China cannot be stopped. It is in the interest of the world, including the Western powers, to see China emerge as a responsible stakeholder on the world stage.” [57:33, Prof. Mahbubani]

2. Personal Journey: Decolonization and Intellectual Evolution

• Overcoming Colonial Inheritance:
  • Mahbubani candidly reflects on growing up as a “mentally colonized” child in Singapore, believing in Asian inferiority.
  • The Non-Aligned Movement provided psychological liberation and solidarity among postcolonial states.
• Philosophical Anchoring:
  • Early exposure to Jawaharlal Nehru’s "Discovery of India" and later to Wittgenstein’s philosophy offered intellectual tools for self-emancipation and critique of Western double standards ([10:43]–[16:08]).
• Western Analytical Tradition:
  • “Paradoxically, the reason why I could understand and expose Western hypocrisies was because of Western analytical reasoning. It’s a beautiful double-edged sword.” [16:08, Prof. Mahbubani]

3. From Idealism to Pragmatism: Lessons of Diplomacy

• Career Choices:

  • Recounted turning down a fast-track defense job due to pacifist beliefs ([17:43]), reflecting youthful idealism.

• Philosophical Influences:

  • Preferred Marx over Rawls in youth for depth but grew more pragmatic, favoring Rawls’ focus on improving the lives of the bottom 10% ([20:35]).

• On Social Justice:

  • Criticizes the US and other Western plutocracies for failing their lower classes, contrasting them with Asian state-building ([21:51]).

  “In my book Has China Won?, I have a chapter on how the United States has become a plutocracy... the bottom 50% have actually seen their incomes and standards of living stagnate for several decades. That’s tragic.” [21:51, Prof. Mahbubani]

4. Asian Governance – The "MPH" Formula

• Singapore as a Model:

  • From a $500 per capita income in 1965 to $92,000 today ([29:47]), Singapore is held up as a miracle of development.
  • MPH Formula: Meritocracy, Pragmatism, Honesty.
    • Meritocracy: Select the most capable for public service.
    • Pragmatism: Copy and adapt global best practices.
    • Honesty: Wage war on corruption—“send ministers to jail if corrupt.” ([30:32]–[32:23])

  “Singapore succeeded by becoming the most copycat country in the world.” [30:35, Prof. Mahbubani]

• Limitations:

  • Singapore’s success not always directly transferable due to its unique size/history, but core principles offer lessons even to Western nations ([28:57], [33:01]).
  • Critique of NHS (UK): Insistence on “co-payment” in Singapore reduces overconsumption, the kind of pragmatism Western systems lack ([35:02]).

5. Non-Aligned Movement, Dependency Theory, and Western Interventions

• Non-Aligned Movement:

  • Provided solidarity, but the realpolitik of the Cold War made true non-alignment rare ([37:24], [38:50]).
  • Not all participants succeeded – India and Singapore flourished, others like Iraq and Libya, especially after Western interventions, collapsed ([40:21]).

  “You didn’t send them to heaven with your liberation, you sent them to hell. And you should acknowledge responsibility for having sent them to hell.” [41:52, Prof. Mahbubani]

• On Dependency Theory:

  • Singapore rejected dependency theory, welcomed Western investment, and thrived as a result ([41:57]).

6. The UN and Multilateral Governance

• Why is the UN Weak?
  • Great powers purposely select “spineless” Secretary Generals, a consensus between the P5 ([44:00]–[46:31]).
• Potential for Stronger UN:
  • Multilateralism is increasingly in the interests of all powers, especially as multipolarity rises ([47:07]).
  • Effective global rules (UNCLOS, Montreal Protocol) exemplify success ([47:07]–[48:49]).
• Resilience of Global System:
  • Even amid protectionism, trade and cooperation have grown thanks to enduring multilateral structures ([49:01]–[50:12]).

7. Western Hypocrisy: Ideals vs. Practice

• Human Rights Double Standards:

  • The West creates noble norms (e.g. anti-torture conventions), but violates them (e.g. Guantanamo) and shields allies from accountability ([51:35]).

  “Not one European government dared to speak out on Guantanamo and waterboarding… The 88% [of humanity] now look at the 12% and say what a wonderful bunch of hypocrites they are.” [53:31, Prof. Mahbubani]

8. China in the Rules-Based Order: Good Faith Actor or Revisionist?

• Western Perceptions:

  • The Anglo-Saxon perspective paints China as a "bad faith" actor, but the global majority views China as rational and predictable ([54:49], [55:44]).

• WTO and Law:

  • On the US blocking WTO judicial appointments: “It’s not China.” ([56:26])

• US-China Relations and World Stability:

  • Current Trump administration is more pragmatic, leading to stabilization ([60:09]):

    “Of all the recent administrations, the most pragmatic American administration towards China is the current Trump administration... welcomed by the world.” [60:09, Prof. Mahbubani]

• Advice for the West:

  • Don’t wait to negotiate rules for China as #1; do so proactively to avoid an “angry dragon” ([57:33], [59:13]).

9. What Will the Asian Century Mean? What Could Derail It?

• Not “Anti-Western”:
  • Asia’s success builds directly on Western innovations (“seven pillars of Western wisdom”).
  • “The Asian century is not going to be an anti-Western century.” [61:56]
• Biggest Risk:
  • Major Asian powers (China-India, China-Japan, Japan-Korea) not managing historical disputes could endanger the project ([63:53]).

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the Mental Impact of Colonialism:

  “Growing up as a young Asian child in the British colony of Singapore, I genuinely believed we Asians were intellectually and culturally inferior to the white men.”
  [10:43, Prof. Mahbubani]

• On Pragmatism and Progress:

  “Pragmatism means you don’t hesitate to learn from anybody, including those whom you considered to be your slaves for a hundred years.”
  [33:01, Prof. Mahbubani]

• On the NHS vs Singapore’s Health System:

  “The very definition of pragmatism is that you must be able to slay sacred cows. And if cannot slay a sacred cow, you cannot become pragmatic, and the NHS has become a sacred cow in the British political system.”
  [35:02, Prof. Mahbubani]

• On Western Hypocrisy:

  “When a Third World country carries out torture, they condemn it fiercely and impose sanctions. But when the United States ...reintroduced torture, not one European country dared to officially criticize.”
  [51:35, Prof. Mahbubani]

• On Asia’s Attitude to the West:

  “Most Asian countries still respect the West and want to work with the West. People in the West should not be frightened by the emergence of the Asian century.”
  [61:56, Prof. Mahbubani]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Topic | Timestamp (MM:SS) | Speaker | |---------|-------|-------------------|---------| | Main Thesis of Asian Century | China, India, historical & economic rise | 06:00–09:04 | Mahbubani & Small | | Mental colonization & emancipation | Decolonization, Nehru, personal journey | 10:43–13:12 | Mahbubani | | Wittgenstein's influence | Western philosophy & analytical reasoning | 14:06–16:08 | Mahbubani | | Rawls vs. Marx | Philosophy, pragmatism, social justice | 19:22–21:33 | Mahbubani & Small | | MPH Formula for development | Meritocracy, Pragmatism, Honesty explanation | 30:35–32:23 | Mahbubani | | Critique of NHS | Healthcare reform and sacred cows | 34:41–36:15 | Mahbubani & Small | | Non-Aligned Movement’s realism | Realpolitik & dependency theory discussion | 37:05–41:57 | Mahbubani | | UN reform & great power interests | Weakness of UN, Clinton’s Yale speech | 44:00–47:07 | Mahbubani | | Western hypocrisy—Guantanamo | Human rights, double standards | 51:35–53:31 | Mahbubani | | China’s role in global order | US, China, WTO, pragmatic Trump policy | 54:49–60:41 | Mahbubani & Small | | Meaning and risk of “Asian Century” | Not anti-West, future challenges | 61:56–63:53 | Mahbubani |

Tone and Language

The episode balances the gravitas of history and global affairs with moments of warmth, candor, and even humor (notably in the anecdotes and British self-deprecation). Mahbubani is consistently erudite yet accessible; Small is incisive and conversational, encouraging depth and reflection without shying from tough questions.

Conclusion

Professor Mahbubani’s argument is powerful and optimistic: the Asian century is inevitable, largely because it is a restoration of historical norms, powered by demographic and economic forces larger than any one actor. The West need not fear this shift—indeed, Asia’s rise embodies the success of Western ideas. The greatest risks come from unmanaged rivalries within Asia and a failure—on any side—to adapt, cooperate, or learn. Throughout, Mahbubani calls for the humility to learn across civilizations, the pragmatism to reform institutions, and the courage to tackle uncomfortable truths within and between societies.