American farmers were already struggling, then came the Iran war

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Consider This from NPR

Episode Title: American farmers were already struggling, then came the Iran war

Date: March 31, 2026
Host: Scott Detrow
Correspondent: Danielle Kurtzleben

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Overview

This episode examines the mounting pressures facing American farmers, focusing on the cumulative impact of recent policy decisions—especially from President Trump’s administration—trade tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and, most recently, the turmoil arising from the war in Iran. The episode weaves together the insights and frustrations of farmers, economists, and policy experts to reveal how these factors are converging to test the loyalty and patience of a rural constituency central to the Republican political base.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Longstanding Challenges in US Agriculture (00:00–01:11)

• Enduring Problems: Mark Mueller, an Iowa corn and soybean farmer, highlights persistent issues for farmers, expressing bipartisan disappointment with recent presidential administrations.

  • “I'm trying to choose between the words bleak and brutal.” (Mueller, 00:04)
  • “The current administration has not done me any favors. The previous administration did not do me any favors.” (Mueller, 00:16)
  • Farmers feel they only receive “lip service” and "platitudes" from politicians, without meaningful follow-through on trade deals.

• Political Stakes: Mueller warns of the potential political fallout:

  • “Are farmers going to turn wholesale against Trump? I don't know. But … less support than … at the last election.” (Mueller, 01:25)

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2. The Iran War's Impact: Fertilizer Prices & Fuel Costs (01:11–05:19)

• Fertilizer Price Spike: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—resulting from conflict with Iran—has severely disrupted the global supply of nitrogen fertilizer, causing prices to rise steeply.

  • “They're choking us. We are getting choked out here. This is not … going to end well.” (Dave O’Brien, Illinois farmer, 04:03)
  • O’Brien spells out the exponential rise in operational costs:
    • “It’s going to be costing three to five thousand dollars a throw… Five hundred gallon times four or five dollars. There you go right there. It’s just crazy.” (O’Brien, 04:32)

• Labor Crisis Intensifies: Deportations and immigration restrictions have “thinned out the ag labor force,” compounding cost increases from tariffs and international market disruptions.

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3. Trade Troubles & Unstable Markets (05:19–06:58)

• Tariffs' Ongoing Pain: American tariffs have led China to buy soybeans from South America, a shift that persists and continues to depress US soybean prices.

  • “Those margins have been tight and in some cases negative.” (Joseph Glauber, former USDA chief economist, 05:19)

• Market Shifts:

  • The surge in fertilizer costs is expected to push some farmers to plant less corn (which requires nitrogen fertilizer) and more soybeans, which might drive prices even lower:
    • “Maybe a million million and a half acres or more could switch from corn into soybeans, which ... has also contributed to lower soybean prices.” (Glauber, 05:38)

• Federal Relief: Trump’s administration touts farm aid, including a $12 billion support program—raising to $30 billion total—but experts warn that such levels of support are neither sustainable nor sufficient for the long-term:

  • “Providing 20, $30 billion ... is not something that's gonna happen, you know, year in, year out.” (Glauber, 06:58)

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4. Are Subsidies a Political Tool? Farmers Want Stability (07:07–08:36)

• Aid Versus Policy:

  • Gary Wirtish (Minnesota Farmers Union president): “It's not right for the taxpayer to keep bailing the farmers out ... We need policies that don't require bailouts. … That the farmers get their money from the marketplace.” (Wirtish, 07:24)

• Political Calculations: David Ohman (former Iowa GOP co-chair) agrees subsidies serve a political function:

  • “Well, I think it's the truth if you want to look, look at it that way.” (Ohman, 07:45)

• Demand for Predictability: Ohman says farmers want “certainty” in order to plan ahead and make large business decisions.

  • “Most farmers ... would tell you they'd rather have certainty than uncertainty. Looking out 1, 2, 3, crop years, then they can really plan.” (Ohman, 07:58)

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5. Resentments Grow: “Short Term Pain for Long Term Gain?” (08:15–09:14)

• Skepticism of Sacrifice:

  • Dave O’Brien directly challenges the expectation that farmers should accept hardship as a step toward greater gains:
    • “It bothers me, these statements about, well, there's going to be a little hurt ... that's almost an insult. But we're supposed to take it in the ribs. But I guarantee you'll get it better, okay?” (O’Brien, 08:36)

• Historical Echoes: Drawing from his Vietnam War experience, O’Brien views the Iran conflict with deep trepidation:

  • “This, to me, just smells like Vietnam 2.0. … This is going to not end well.” (O’Brien, 09:06)

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6. The Political Horizon (08:15–end)

• Both farmers and political strategists interviewed agreed: if these hardships drag on, they could erode the Republican Party's core rural support.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We are getting choked out here. This is not going to end well.”
  — Dave O’Brien, farmer, on spiking costs and market pressures (04:03)

• “Most farmers … would tell you they'd rather have certainty than uncertainty.”
  — David Ohman, former Iowa GOP co-chair, on the need for stable policy (07:58)

• “It's not right for the taxpayer to keep bailing the farmers out … We need policies that don't require bailouts.”
  — Gary Wirtish, Minnesota Farmers Union president (07:24)

• “This, to me, just smells like Vietnam 2.0 … This is going to not end well.”
  — Dave O’Brien, farmer and Vietnam vet, on the Iran war (09:06)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Farmers describe worsening struggles: 00:00–01:44
• Fertilizer price impact from Iran war: 01:11–04:52
• Market and labor disruptions explained: 04:52–06:58
• Experts discuss the sustainability of farm aid: 06:58–07:24
• Farmers’ call for real policy change, not bailouts: 07:24–07:58
• The risk of political backlash among rural voters: 07:58–09:14

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Tone & Language

The tone is forthright and personal, capturing farmers’ frustration and sense of being overlooked, alongside sober economic analysis and mild political skepticism. Direct language (“choked out,” “brutal,” “not going to end well”) drives home the gravity of the moment for rural America.

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Summary

This episode of Consider This lays bare the anxieties of American farmers staring down simultaneous economic, policy, and geopolitical storms. While federal assistance brings some relief, the calls from the field—and from agricultural leaders—are for systemic, predictable policy solutions rather than political gestures or temporary bailouts. With midterm elections looming and farm communities unsettled, the Trump administration faces growing challenges in holding its rural base.

Transcript

[Scott Detrow]

America's farmers can't seem to catch a break.

[Mark Mueller]

I'm trying to choose between the words bleak and brutal.

[Scott Detrow]

Mark Mueller is a fourth generation farmer from Iowa. He mainly farms corn and soybeans. He's also the president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association.

[Mark Mueller]

There are problems that have been going on for years now. I will say this. The current administration has not done me any favors. The previous administration did not do me any favors.

[Scott Detrow]

And this past year has been especially turbulent. President Trump's tariffs and other trade policies have disrupted export markets and his immigration crackdown has exacerbated an already serious labor crisis in agriculture.

[Mark Mueller]

And this administration, it's made so far empty promises. Farmers have gotten a lot of lip service, but we have not seen much more than that. We, we get lots of platitudes. You know, President Trump loves farmers. You know, he's, he's our best friend. But until we see some trade deals, some meaningful trade deals, and not just empty frameworks announcing trade deals, agriculture is going to be on the ropes for some time to come.

[Scott Detrow]

Yet now the war in Iran has caused a spike in fertilizer prices because half of the world's nitrogen fertilizer exports come through the Strait of Hormuz. If the pain persists for farmers, Mueller says it might bleed into the midterms.

[Mark Mueller]

Are farmers going to turn wholesale against Trump? I don't know. But I'm going to guess that he'll have markedly less support of the Republican Party, will have less support than it did at the last election from the farming community. I'm hearing people grumble, but not loudly yet.

[Scott Detrow]

Consider this. Some of President Trump's policies are testing the support of farmers, many of whom voted for him. From npr, I'm Scott Detrow.

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[Scott Detrow]

It's consider this from npr. A series of Trump administration policy decisions, deportations, tariffs and the Iran war are ratcheting up the pressure on American farmers. It's a group that tends to support the president, but persistent challenges may test their patience. NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben reports on how agriculture is getting squeezed.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Dave o' Brien is straightforward about how the Trump administration's policies are affecting farmers.

[Dave O'Brien]

They're choking us. We are getting choked out here. This is not, this is not going to end well.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

O' Brien has been growing corn and soybeans for 50 years in northern Illinois. He's voted for Republicans and Democrats in the past, but he's frustrated with the GOP in the Trump era. Since the US Bombed Iran, for example, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of nitrogen fertilizer, sending the price spiraling upward. And that's on top of what farmers will spend filling up a couple of fuel tanks.

[Dave O'Brien]

You know, you and I go to the gas station and, and we're shocked when we got to spend $36 to fill our darn tank up, right? These farmers are going to be filling those combines up. It's going to be costing three to five thousand dollars a throw. Can you believe that? Five hundred gallon times four or five dollars. There you go right there. It's just crazy.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Beyond those higher costs, deportations have thinned out the ag labor force. Tariffs increase the price of goods like machinery and cause tensions with China. Those tensions aren't over. Last week, the Trump administration announced that a planned meeting with China, the U.S. s number one soybean export market, would be delayed for weeks. That helped send soybean prices tumbling. Joseph Glauber, a former USDA chief economist, says farm balance sheets aren't looking good.

[Joseph Glauber]

If you just look at the cash side of the business in terms of what they receive for their crops and what they have to pay out, those margins have been tight and in some cases negative.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

And the challenges can build on each other. Nitrogen fertilizer, for example, is used on corn, but not soybeans. So if corn growing gets more expensive,

[Joseph Glauber]

market analysts are thinking that maybe a million million and a half acres or more could switch from corn into soybeans, which of course is. That has also contributed to a lower soybean prices.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Farming is always unpredictable. The weather, political developments in other countries, all sorts of things can make markets chaotic farm. But US Policy choices can make it much harder. In the first Trump administration, for example, Trump's tariffs led China to trade more with South America, importing more of their soybeans in place of US Soy. That has persisted. President Trump seems to know farmers are hurting. He recently demanded in all caps on social media that Congress, quote, pass the farm bill now. And in a statement to npr, Agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins said, quote, our farmers are moving into planting season and the President is aware of these challenges. We are looking at every potential option to lower fertilizer prices. The department also emphasized the assistance the administration has given farmers. In December, they announced a $12 billion program designed to support farmers through, as the administration put it, temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs. Altogether, federal direct aid to farmers totaled more than $30 billion last year. That helps, says Glauber, but the government can only do so much.

[Joseph Glauber]

You gotta think that providing 20, $30 billion in additional monies to the ag sector is not something that's gonna happen, you know, year in, year out.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

Gary Wirtish is president of the Minnesota Farmers Union. He also advised Democratic then senator Mark Dayton on agricultural issues and has farmed for decades. To him, Trump subsidies look not just like assistance, but a political gambit as Trump tries to stay in farmer's good graces.

[Gary Wirtish]

It's not right for the taxpayer to keep bailing the farmers out, which obviously the farmers need it now. But we need policies that don't require bailouts. We need a good farm bail. We need policies that the farmers get their money from the marketplace.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

I asked David Ohman, former co chair of the Iowa Republican Party, if that's a fair assessment that subsidies are also a political ploy.

[David Ohman]

Well, I think it's the truth if you want to look, look at it that way. And he isn't the only president or the only person from a particular party that's tried to do that, and he

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

agrees with Wurtish that farmers may need the money now, but they'd prefer stability.

[David Ohman]

Most farmers, if they level with you, would tell you they'd rather have certainty than uncertainty. Looking out 1, 2, 3, crop years, then they can really plan. Do they want to buy more acres, do they want to make six figure capital equipment purchases, things of that sort.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

He adds that if the pain persists for farmers, it could drag on the GOP in the midterms. Generally speaking, though, Trump has received strong support from farmers and rural areas in general. And Trump has encouraged them to take the long view, saying policies like tariffs are short term pain for long term gain. O' Brien is just one farmer of many, but he dislikes that logic.

[Dave O'Brien]

It bothers me, these statements about, well, there's going to be a little hurt to be spread around, but that'll all get better. I quite frankly don't like that talk at all. Whether you're talking about farmers or veterans, that's almost an insult. But we're supposed to take it in the ribs. But I guarantee you'll get it better, okay?

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

O' Brien is a Vietnam vet, and so when he looks at the war in Iran, he sees it not only through the lens of his business, but his military experience.

[Dave O'Brien]

It's so, so frustrating, you know, and now you tell me, where's this war

[Joseph Glauber]

going to end up?

[Dave O'Brien]

This, to me, this just smells like Vietnam 2.0. I'm telling you, this is going to not end well.

[Danielle Kurtzleben]

And whether it's Iran or tariffs or any other policy affecting farmers, the question is not just how it ends, but when.

[Scott Detrow]

That was NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben. This episode was produced by Christine Arrowsmith, Alejandra Marquez Hanse and Karen Zamora, with audio engineering by Ted Mebane. It was edited by Rebecca Metzler and William Troup. Our executive producer is Sam and Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Scott Detrow.

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