America's place in the world during a second Trump term

Summary

Consider This: America's Place in the World During a Second Trump Term

Podcast: Consider This from NPR
Host: Mary Louise Kelly
Episode Title: America's Place in the World During a Second Trump Term
Release Date: January 15, 2025

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Overview of the Senate Confirmation Hearings

In the lead-up to President Donald Trump's second term, the Senate confirmation hearings for his key Cabinet nominees, Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, provided significant insights into the administration's future policies and governing style.

Pete Hegseth's Hearing:
Former Army Ranger and conservative commentator Pete Hegseth faced intense scrutiny during his confirmation hearing. Arizona Democrat Senator Mark Kelly posed direct and challenging questions, addressing allegations of Hegseth’s personal conduct and professional qualifications.

• Mark Kelly (Senator):
  "An event in North Carolina drunk in front of three young female staff members after you had instituted a no alcohol policy and then reversed it. True or false?"
  [00:27]

Hegseth’s responses aimed to deflect these allegations, maintaining his stance and denying misconduct. Despite the aggressive questioning, Hegseth garnered crucial support from Republican Senator Joni Ernst, signaling his likely confirmation.

Marco Rubio's Hearing:
Contrasting Hegseth’s contentious hearing, Marco Rubio's confirmation process appeared more conventional and less fraught with controversy. Rubio emphasized his alignment with President Trump's foreign policy directives.

• Marco Rubio:
  "Well, let me say first, the foreign policy of the United States will be set by the president. And my job is to advise on it and ultimately to execute."
  [02:20]

Rubio’s pragmatic approach and established political background contributed to a smoother confirmation process, reflecting a more traditional selection for the role of Secretary of State.

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Common Threads in the Hearings

Despite the differing tones of their respective hearings, both nominees underscored a critical aspect of the forthcoming administration: the centrality of President Trump’s leadership in shaping national security and foreign policy.

• Pete Hegseth:
  "I've always been personally pro life. I know President Trump has as well. And we will review all policies. But our standard is whatever the president wants on this particular issue."
  [02:05]

• Marco Rubio:
  "Well, let me say first, the foreign policy of the United States will be set by the president. And my job is to advise on it and ultimately to execute."
  [02:20]

This emphasis suggests a Cabinet that is poised to execute Trump’s vision with limited autonomy, reinforcing his authoritative stance on international matters.

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Analyzing Trump's Potential Governance Through Expert Insights

To delve deeper into what these confirmations could mean for America's global standing, Mary Louise Kelly interviewed two seasoned national security officials: Victoria Coats and Leon Panetta.

Victoria Coats: Unifying Philosophy and Policy Continuity

Victoria Coats, former Deputy National Security Advisor in the first Trump administration and Vice President of National Security and Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation, provided a nuanced perspective on the diversity within Trump's national security team.

• Mary Louise Kelly:
  "Do you see a unifying philosophy across the Trump national security team?"
  [03:30]

• Victoria Coats:
  "There is a range of strong voices, which is what President Trump expects. And he respects Tulsi Gabbard's position... and Senator Rubio, who has his views, but he follows the president's policy."
  [03:57]

Coats highlighted that President Trump values diverse perspectives within his team, expecting robust debate and challenge to ensure comprehensive policy formation. However, ultimate decision-making remains tightly aligned with Trump's directives.

Policy Continuity and Divergence:

When probed about potential shifts from the Biden administration, Coats identified China as a consistent focal point but anticipated a more aggressive Trump administration stance.

• Mary Louise Kelly:
  "How different might we expect Trump's foreign policy to look from President Biden's?"
  [04:38]

• Victoria Coats:
  "China is probably the unifying factor... the Trump administration be somewhat more aggressive."
  [04:53]

Regarding Ukraine, Coats suggested that Trump aims to continue military aid while prioritizing the cessation of hostilities, indicating a strategic but potentially unpredictable approach.

• Victoria Coats:
  "His priority is going to be ending this war... he is appointing a very powerful negotiator to run that effort."
  [05:13]

Radical Proposals and Strategic Signals:

Coats addressed Trump's unconventional ideas, such as the potential takeover of Greenland or the Panama Canal, viewing them as signals against Chinese expansion.

• Victoria Coats:
  "He is sending a very clear signal that these Chinese incursions in our hemisphere have to end."
  [05:58]

Leon Panetta: Evaluating Leadership and Policy Directions

Leon Panetta, former Secretary of Defense under President Obama and former CIA Director, offered a perspective grounded in experience across multiple administrations.

• Mary Louise Kelly:
  "Do you see a unifying philosophy in the Trump national security team...?"
  [07:30]

• Leon Panetta:
  "It could be a repeat of the kind of chaotic approach... or it could be a much more effective approach to what is clearly a dangerous world."
  [07:44]

Panetta emphasized the uncertainty surrounding Trump's foreign policy coherence, highlighting two potential pathways: continued unpredictability or a more structured "peace through strength" strategy.

Strength and Alliances:

Panetta endorsed the concept of "Peace through Strength," advocating for robust defense capabilities and strong alliances, reminiscent of Reagan-era policies.

• Leon Panetta:
  "I hope he embraces Reagan's definition... building a strong alliance with our friends to help us confront this dangerous world."
  [09:44]

Skepticism Towards Extreme Proposals:

Panetta expressed reservations about Trump's more radical territorial ambitions, viewing them as potential credibility underminers.

• Leon Panetta:
  "It could get off on the wrong foot... raise the issue... undermines his credibility because it's not going to happen."
  [09:11]

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Key Foreign Policy Focus Areas

The discussions with Coats and Panetta illuminated several critical areas where Trump's second term could shape America's international role:

1. China:

   • Coats expects a more aggressive stance compared to the Biden administration, focusing on countering Chinese expansion and incursions.

2. Ukraine:

   • Coats anticipates continued military aid but with a strategic focus on negotiating peace, leveraging strong leadership to end the conflict.

3. Territorial Ambitions:

   • Proposals such as taking control of Greenland or the Panama Canal indicate a bold, albeit controversial, approach to securing strategic territories against foreign influence, primarily from China.

4. Peace through Strength:

   • A central doctrine expected to guide Trump's foreign policy, emphasizing robust military capabilities and strong alliances to maintain global peace and stability.

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Conclusion: Implications for America's Global Standing

The confirmation hearings and expert analyses present a portrait of an administration poised to assertively shape America's role on the global stage. While the preservation of strong alliances and a focus on countering China remain consistent, the potential for a more aggressive and centralized decision-making process under President Trump could lead to significant shifts in international relations.

The concept of "Peace through Strength" suggests a return to traditional defense postures, yet the incorporation of unconventional approaches highlights a dynamic and possibly unpredictable foreign policy landscape.

As America stands on the cusp of another Trump term, these developments signal a blend of continuity and change, with profound implications for the nation's place in the world.

---

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Mark Kelly (Senator):
  "An event in North Carolina drunk in front of three young female staff members after you had instituted a no alcohol policy and then reversed it. True or false?"
  [00:27]

• Pete Hegseth:
  "I've always been personally pro life. I know President Trump has as well. And we will review all policies. But our standard is whatever the president wants on this particular issue."
  [02:05]

• Marco Rubio:
  "Well, let me say first, the foreign policy of the United States will be set by the president. And my job is to advise on it and ultimately to execute."
  [02:20]

• Victoria Coats:
  "He wants [Gabbard] voice in the room. And he also strongly respects Senator Rubio, who... follows the president's policy."
  [03:57]

• Victoria Coats:
  "Trump is signaling to the government of Denmark and the government of Panama that this needs to end."
  [05:58]

• Leon Panetta:
  "I hope he embraces Reagan's definition... building a strong alliance with our friends to help us confront this dangerous world."
  [09:44]

---

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and expert analyses presented in the episode, offering listeners a clear understanding of the potential directions and implications of a second Trump term on America's global positioning.

Transcript

[Mary Louise Kelly]

In some ways, the hearings this week could not have been more different. President elect Trump's nominee to lead the Defense Department, Pete Hegseth, faced an uncertain fate. Heading into his confirmation hearing, Democrats unleashed a litany of aggressive questions about his lack of experience, his criticism of women in combat roles, and allegations which he denied, of alcohol abuse and sexual assault. Here's Arizona Democrat Senator Mark Kelly.

[Mark Kelly]

I'm just asking for true or false answers. An event in North Carolina drunk in front of three young female staff members after you had instituted a no alcohol policy and then reversed it. True or false? Anonymous smears December of 2014 at the CVA Christmas party at the Grand Hyatt at Washington, D.C. you were noticeably intoxicated and had to be carried up to your room. Is that true or false?

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Anonymous smears Trump's Secretary of State nominee, Marco Rubio was a more conventional pick. And his hearing with his former colleagues in the Senate was more conventional.

[Marco Rubio]

Let me just say it's a bit surreal to be on this side of the room, but you all look very distinguished.

[Leon Panetta]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

But there were through lines connecting the hearings. For one, both nominees look almost certain to be confirmed by the Senate. Yes, including Hegseth. He won crucial approval from Iowa Republican Joni Ernst. She went on Newsradio 1040 who out of Des Moines after the hearing, I.

[Victoria Coats]

Will be supporting President Trump's pick for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Another common thread. Each nominee emphasized that the president himself, Trump, would be making the big calls. Here's Hegseth answering a question from Senator Mazie Hirono, Democrat from Hawaii.

[Victoria Coats]

Current DoD policy allows service members and eligible dependents to be reimbursed for travel.

[Leon Panetta]

Associated with non covered reproductive health care, including abortions.

[Victoria Coats]

Will you maintain this common sense policy?

[Mark Kelly]

Senator, I've always been personally pro life. I know President Trump has as well. And we will review all policies. But our standard is whatever the president wants on this particular issue.

[Victoria Coats]

That's my advice I will take.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And here's Rubio.

[Marco Rubio]

Well, let me say first, the foreign policy of the United States will be set by the president. And my job is to advise on it and ultimately to execute.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Consider this. The president sets the agenda when it comes to national security and foreign relations. But what do his Cabinet picks tell us about his policy? From npr, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It's Consider this from npr. We're still a few days before Trump takes office, but this week's blitz of Senate confirmation hearings does give us a window into how his Cabinet picks may lead their departments. And also into how Trump may govern. That is certainly true of foreign policy and national security. And to help unpack what we've seen, I talked to two former national security officials, starting with Victoria Coats, former deputy national security advisor in the first Trump administration, now vice president of national security and foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. Victoria Coats, welcome.

[Victoria Coats]

Good to be with you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

First question, do you see a unifying philosophy across the Trump national security team? I'm asking cuz there seems to be such a wide range in views on display. You can look at Tulsi Gabbard, who's up for director of national intelligence, who has criticized U.S. military action abroad, has been sympathetic to U.S. adversaries, including Vladimir Putin. On the other hand, you have Marco Rubio, who's been super hawkish on Russia, China and other.

[Victoria Coats]

No, I think you're absolutely accurate. There is a range of strong voices, which is what President Trump expects. And so he respects Tulsi Gabbard's position, for example, on surveillance, on asking hard questions of our intelligence community, challenging their assumptions, because we've had some pretty catastrophic intelligence failures over the last couple of years, from Afghanistan to Ukraine to October 7th in Israel. So I think he wants that voice in the room. And he also strongly respects Senator Rubio, who has said in his confirmation hearing as well as other places that he has his views, but he follows the president's policy.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

How different might we expect Trump's foreign policy to look from President Biden's? I mean, there are areas of what appear to be potential great overlap and aggressive posture towards China, for example, or unwavering military support toward Israel.

[Victoria Coats]

I think that China is probably the unifying factor. And so I do expect that will be the same. I think that we will see the Trump administration be somewhat more aggressive.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

What about Ukraine? How big a break do you anticipate there in terms of US Aid to Ukraine, how much and how long it may continue?

[Victoria Coats]

I think President Trump has signaled through his meetings with President Zelensky, both in New York and in Paris, that he is open to continuing some military aid to Ukraine, but that his priority is going to be ending this war. And so that's why he appointed Keith Kellogg, who was a close colleague of mine during the term, is very close to the president, speaks for him. I think it will be a very powerful negotiator to run that effort, an.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Idea that we did not hear during this last four years under President Biden. Trump has toyed aloud with the idea of taking control of Greenland, of the Panama Canal, he has not ruled out that he might use military force to do that. How seriously do you take that proposal?

[Victoria Coats]

I take the President elect's concerns about what we are seeing in terms of Chinese incursions both on Greenland, where they are trying to establish a development toehold, and around on both sides of the Panama Canal. And I think the President elect rightly has a big problem with that. And I think he is signaling to the government of Denmark and the government of Panama that this needs to end. You know, he is the kind of person who puts everything on the table and nothing on the table. So of course, he's not going to rule anything out. But I think he is sending a very clear signal that these Chinese incursions in our hemisphere have to end.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Last question. When Biden came to office, the headline for his foreign policy was America is Back. His implication being, in his view, America had exited the global stage during the Trump years. What might be the headline for Trump's second term?

[Victoria Coats]

I think that the headline for Trump's second term is Peace through Strength. He wants to get to peace deals. He will not do anything to get to a peace deal. However, he wants to get there through strength, and that American strength is back. And that's what to my has been lacking.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Victoria Coats, thank you.

[Victoria Coats]

Thank you very much.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Victoria Coates of the Heritage Foundation. She's former deputy national security advisor to Donald Trump. We're gonna put some of these same questions now to Leon Panetta, who served several Democratic administrations, most recently as CIA director and Defense secretary for President Obama. Secretary, welcome back.

[Leon Panetta]

Good to be with you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Do you see a unifying philosophy in the Trump national security team beyond loyalty to Trump, him of any kind of philosophy that might shed light on where his foreign policy priorities will be in the second term?

[Leon Panetta]

Well, you know, it's a question that I'm not sure we have an answer to at this point. I think it can go in one of two directions. One is that it could be a repeat of the kind of chaotic approach to foreign policy that happened in the first term. Or it could be if he really follows through on what he said during the campaign, that he really wants to promote peace through strength, then I think it could be a much more effective approach to what is clearly a dangerous world.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Are there specific things you will be looking at as you try to answer that question?

[Leon Panetta]

Yeah, I think, first of all, he does have to improve the strength of the country. Looking at various investments that can ensure that our defense is the strongest on the face of the earth is very important because Almost anything he does in foreign policy must reflect that strength first and foremost, and that there is an effort to continue to support Ukraine in its fight so that they can ultimately try to negotiate some kind of settlement to that war. How he approaches that will tell us a lot.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

How seriously do you take the idea of taking over Greenland or the Panama Canal?

[Leon Panetta]

Well, you know, that's the kind of thing that tells me that he could get off on the wrong foot with all of the danger points that are in the world. To then raise the issue of whether or not we ought to take over Greenland or the Panama Canal or Canada just seems to me to undermine his credibility because it's not going to happen.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So what do you make of peace through strength, which, as we just heard, is what Victoria Coats thinks will be Trump's mantra going in for foreign policy. Do you agree?

[Leon Panetta]

I hope he does embrace peace through strength. And more importantly, I hope he embraces Reagan's definition. The strength of America's allies are vital to the United States. So that combination of being involved, providing world leadership and building a strong alliance with our friends to try to help us confront this dangerous world, that's what Reagan would do, and I hope that's what Trump does.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Leon Panetta, who served in many roles during his years in Washington, landing as secretary of Defense under President Obama. Leon Panetta, thank you.

[Leon Panetta]

Thank you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

This episode was produced by Connor Donovan. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's consider this from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.