Can Syria avoid another slide into autocracy?

Summary

Summary of NPR’s Consider This Episode: “Can Syria Avoid Another Slide into Autocracy?”

Release Date: December 13, 2024
Hosts/Authors: NPR
Duration: Approximately 12 minutes
Transcript Provided by User

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Introduction: The Fall of Assad’s Regime

In this pivotal episode of NPR’s Consider This, host Ari Shapiro delves into the rapid collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The sudden downfall has ignited celebrations among Syrians both domestically and in the diaspora, marking a significant moment in the country’s turbulent history.

Notable Reactions:

• Steven Heidemann reflects on the emotional impact of Assad’s fall:
  “There has never been a moment that beautiful.” [00:10]

• Omar al Shogari, a former detainee of Assad’s Sadnaya prison now residing in the US, shares his profound relief:
  “I mean, the joy I felt was so extreme that I cried. I cried almost endlessly.” [00:24 - 00:35]

• Razan Rashidi, Executive Director of the Syria Campaign, echoes the widespread jubilation:
  “For me, it was an amazing feeling just to be able to hug complete strangers and tell them, congratulations, Syria is ours, and it does not belong to the Assad family.” [00:42 - 00:50]

Transition of Power: HTS Takes the Helm

With Assad’s regime dismantled, the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faces the daunting task of governing Syria. Despite being designated a terrorist organization by the United States, HTS has begun outlining its governance plans.

Insights from Morning Edition’s Leila Fadel:

• HTS leadership emphasizes a peaceful transition and inclusivity:
  “They will lead a peaceful transition of power, that Syrians of all creeds and ethnicities will be protected under their rule.” [01:09 - 01:17]

• Observations on the ground indicate significant changes:
  “There are signs everywhere of a changed Syria, no passport control, abandoned military posts, military trucks and tanks. Instead, there are checkpoints armed mostly by young rebels from HTS.” [01:20 - 01:33]

Persistent Violence and Minority Fears

Despite the regime’s fall, violence has not entirely ceased in Syria. NPR’s Hadil Al Shalchi reports from Damascus about the lingering tensions and fears among minority communities.

Key Points from Hadil Al Shalchi:

• Ongoing anger and acts of revenge persist:
  “Anger and revenge is still very palpable here. You know, there have been many videos circulating online of revenge attacks and summary executions.” [01:40 - 01:48]

• Concerns among minority groups regarding their future security:
  “There are some fears in his community that they won't be treated well. He said that while HTS has assured their safety, he worries that the new rulers will be actually Islamist extremists and they might go after his community.” [01:53 - 02:11]

Historical Context: Lessons from the Arab Spring

The episode contextualizes Syria’s current situation within the broader framework of the Arab Spring, a wave of uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa that began in 2011. While the movement initially brought hope for democratic reforms, many participating countries have since regressed into authoritarianism or chaos.

Ari Shapiro’s Analysis:

• Highlights the initial optimism and subsequent backslide into autocracy in countries like Egypt and Tunisia:
  “It seems like none of these countries are far better off than they were before this began.” [07:06 - 07:09]

• Explains the factors leading to failed transitions, such as government repression and inability to address economic grievances:
  “One of the principal causes of backsliding in Tunisia was the failure of the democratic government that took shape after 2011 to respond effectively to the economic grievances that were so important in sparking protests in the first place.” [07:49 - 08:11]

Expert Insight: Interview with Steven Heidemann

Steven Heidemann, Director of the Middle East Studies Program at Smith College, provides a comprehensive analysis of Syria’s potential trajectory post-Assad.

Key Insights:

• On the Failure of Arab Spring Transitions:
  “In some cases, the initial response of the government to mass protests was to repress them.” [05:50 - 06:35]
  Heidemann discusses how repression led to prolonged conflicts or temporary suppression of protests without addressing underlying demands.

• Unity Among Opposition Factions:
  “We have seen minorities, including those from the sect to which Bashar Al Assad himself belonged, the Alawis, sign assurances that they want to participate in shaping a new Syria.” [09:14 - 10:28]
  He emphasizes the current unity among opposition groups as a potential source of stability, albeit with the acknowledgment that tensions may arise.

• Challenges Ahead:

  • HTS’s Islamist Identity:
    “Even if HTS no longer embraces the more violent jihadist ideology that it did in its earlier incarnations, I think it still envisions governing Syria in an Islamist fashion.” [10:43 - 11:44]
    Heidemann raises concerns about HTS’s ability to govern inclusively and democratically, given its historical and ideological leanings.

  • Potential for Authoritarian Regression:
    “It is not a democratic movement. And so to the extent that it now is expressing a willingness to be more inclusive in how it shapes the future Syria, we really do have some reasons for concern in terms of whether it will live up to those commitments down the road.” [10:56 - 11:44]
    He warns that HTS’s governance may mirror past autocratic tendencies unless genuine democratic structures and inclusivity are prioritized.

Prospects for Syria: Can History Be Different?

The episode concludes by pondering whether Syria can break the cycle of failed transitions experienced by its neighbors during the Arab Spring. Heidemann remains cautiously optimistic but underscores the significant challenges Syria faces.

Final Thoughts from Heidemann:

• Potential for Positive Transition:
  “Right now, it's clear that the rebel group that led the operation overthrowing the Assad regime is in charge of the transition. And we haven't seen as much openness to other voices as we might like.” [09:25 - 10:28]
  While initial unity is promising, the true test lies in inclusive governance and addressing the diverse needs of Syria’s population.

• Cautious Optimism Amidst Challenges:
  “It's a bit too soon to say,” Heidemann acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding Syria’s future, emphasizing the need for vigilant observation of the transition process.

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Conclusion

NPR’s Consider This episode offers a nuanced exploration of Syria’s newfound political landscape following Assad’s ousting. Through firsthand accounts and expert analysis, the podcast sheds light on the fragile optimism surrounding this historic change and the formidable obstacles that lie ahead. As Syria stands at a crossroads reminiscent of the Arab Spring's aftermath, the path it takes will be crucial in determining whether it can achieve lasting democratic governance or succumb to the cycles of autocracy that have plagued the region.

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This summary captures the essence of the episode, highlighting key discussions, insights, and notable quotes with proper attribution and timestamps. It provides a comprehensive overview for those who have not listened to the podcast.

Transcript

[Ari Shapiro]

The brutal regime of Syria's Bashar al Assad fell over the weekend with dizzying speed, and Syrians within the country and around the world burst into celebration.

[Steven Heidemann]

There has never been a moment that beautiful.

[Ari Shapiro]

Omar al Shogari is now based in the US he had been detained and tortured in Assad's infamous Sadnaya prison. And this week he described the moment he realized the government had fallen.

[Steven Heidemann]

I mean, the joy I felt was so extreme that I cried. I cried almost endlessly.

[Ari Shapiro]

It's a moment that we've been waiting for for a long time. Many had fled the violence in their country over the last decade. Plus Razan Rashidi, the executive director of the human rights group the Syria Campaign, was among them.

[Laurel Wamsley]

For me, it was an amazing feeling just to be able to hug complete strangers and tell them, congratulations, Syria is.

[Ari Shapiro]

Ours, and it does not belong to the Assad family. Now the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al Sham, or hts, has to govern. They are designated a terrorist organization by the US in the Syrian capital, Damascus, Morning Edition host Leila Fadel described the first steps the leadership is taking today.

[Leila Fadel]

They're saying the right things, that they will lead a peaceful transition of power, that Syrians of all creeds and ethnicities will be protected under their rule.

[Ari Shapiro]

She says life in Syria already feels different.

[Leila Fadel]

There are signs everywhere of a changed Syria, no passport control, abandoned military posts, military trucks and tanks. Instead, there are checkpoints armed mostly by young rebels from HTS.

[Ari Shapiro]

But the violence has not entirely disappeared. NPR's Hadil Al Shalchi has also been reporting from Damascus.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

Anger and revenge is still very palpable here. You know, there have been many videos circulating online of revenge attacks and summary executions.

[Ari Shapiro]

And she says some members of minority groups in Syria are afraid of what the future may bring.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

I spoke to an engineer, Samer Kassab, from the Druze community who lives here in Damascus. He said there are some fears in his community that they won't be treated well. He said that while HTS has assured their safety, he worries that the new rulers will be actually Islamist extremists and they might go after his community.

[Ari Shapiro]

Those fears are not unfounded. Across the Middle east and North Africa, many revolutions have overthrown autocrats, only for those countries to descend back into chaos or a more oppressive regime. Consider the Syrian revolution began amid a wave of uprisings in the region that led to new undemocratic regimes. Can Syria avoid a similar fate today? From npr, I'm Ari Shapiro. This message comes from Carvana with Carvana Value Tracker you can track your car's value anytime, anywhere. Carvana will even let you know when your car's value changes with updated emails. However you value your car, know its worth with Carvana Value Tracker.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

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[Steven Heidemann]

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[Ari Shapiro]

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[Hadil Al Shalchi]

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[Ari Shapiro]

It's Consider this from NPR. When the Syrian revolution began back in 2011, the country was not alone. Syrians joined a wave of uprisings across the Middle east and North Africa. The movement started in Tunisia with the death of a 26 year old fruit vendor named Mohammed Bouazizi. After being harassed harassed by police, he set himself on fire in an act of desperation that sparked mass demonstrations in a country where people had struggled against an autocratic government for years. Days later, Tunisia's president fell from power. Meanwhile, in nearby Egypt, millions of Egyptians, inspired by the revolution in Tunisia, took to the streets protesting the government of President Hosni Mubarak. Soon, he too out of power. As the protests spread through the region, one dictator fell after Libya, Yemen. The movement was optimistically called the Arab Spring. But after the uprisings, many countries became more autocratic. Some are still stuck in chaos and war. In Syria today, many people are jubilant about the end of Bashar al Assad's regime. So how do they avoid the future as other Arab countries that overthrew dictators more than a decade ago and ended up worse off today? Steven Heidemann is director of the Middle East Studies Program at Smith College and he's here to help us answer that question. Welcome.

[Steven Heidemann]

Good to be with you.

[Ari Shapiro]

Every country is obviously unique, but to the extent that you can generalize, why did the revolutions of the Arab Spring that began with so much joy, optimism and hope go sour?

[Steven Heidemann]

Well, in some cases, the initial response of the government to mass protests was to repress them. In the case of Syria and in the case of Bahrain as well, protesters were met with force by governments that had no interest in responding to demands for political change from below. And the outcome was, in the Syrian case, to set the country on a path of extended civil war. In the case of Bahrain, repression worked, and within just a couple of months, protests had been suppressed. But in neither case have we seen the demands that were part of the protest movement in 2011 addressed by governments.

[Ari Shapiro]

I mean, if you look at North African countries, Egypt, you think about what happened in Tahrir Square, where these crowds of people joyously overthrew the Egyptian dictator. Today, the country is more autocratic than it was before the Arab Spring. Tunisia, where the revolution began, where the Arab Spring movement began, for a few years, looked like it was going to be a democratic country, and now it has backslid into autocracy. It seems like none of these countries are far better off than they were before this began.

[Steven Heidemann]

That's correct. And one of the principal causes of backsliding in Tunisia was the failure of the democratic government that took shape after 2011 to respond effectively to the economic grievances that were so important in sparking protests in the first place. In the Egyptian case, there was a democratic election that brought a member of the Muslim Brotherhood to power for the first time in Egypt's history. But after a year of very tense relations between that government and the military, the military stepped in in 2013, overthrew the democratically elected president, and set Egypt back on a path of increasingly harsh authoritarian rule.

[Ari Shapiro]

And so you have all these examples of countries throughout the Middle east and North Africa that were unable to create democratic governments that were responsive to the demands of the people. Syria is now at a crossroads, not all that different from the crossroads that these other countries were at after they deposed their dictators. What's the lesson here?

[Steven Heidemann]

The lesson, I think, is that we need to be watching carefully to see the direction that the transition in Syria takes. There have been some promising signs from the rebel authorities that now constitute a caretaker government. They've reached out to minorities, they've reassured women, they've offered assurances to external governments about not permitting groups like ISIS to play a role in the transition. And in addition, Syrians themselves have had now 12 or 13 years to think about what they want and to begin to think about what a transition to a more democratic country would look like. The question is whether the Syrians who've done that planning and thinking will be given a voice in the transition. And it's a bit too soon to say, but Right now, it's clear that the rebel group that led the operation overthrowing the Assad regime is in charge of the transition. And we haven't seen as much openness to other voices as we might like.

[Ari Shapiro]

How much is this ultimately in the hands of the rebel group that overthrew Assad, hts, and how much is the result of larger forces that are out of the control of any one ruling party?

[Steven Heidemann]

Well, for the time being, we're seeing an important degree of unity among a wide range of opposition factions that have an interest in the outcome of Syria's transition. It's entirely probable that tensions will emerge. It's likely that conflicts will erupt about all kinds of critical questions concerning how the country is run. But for the moment, what we're seeing is really quite a remarkable degree of unity. We have seen minorities, including those from the sect to which Bashar Al Assad himself belonged, the Alawis, sign assurances that they want to participate in shaping a new Syria. We've seen the same kind of assurances from other minorities in the country. Whether that will last is, of course, an open question. But that unity in this early phase is a source of some promise, I think, about where Syria might be headed.

[Ari Shapiro]

It's obviously been less than a week since the Al Assad regime fell, and we don't know where things will go. But do you believe that Syria can accomplish something that none of these other countries that were part of the Arab Spring were able to achieve?

[Steven Heidemann]

Well, I think Syria faces significant headwinds, and they arise in part from the identity of HTS as an Islamist movement.

[Ari Shapiro]

Still considered a terrorist organization by the United States.

[Steven Heidemann]

Correct. And even if HTS no longer embraces the more violent jihadist ideology that it did in its earlier incarnations, I think it still envisions governing Syria in an Islamist fashion. I'm sure it will be a problem for some segments of Syrian society. And it's also important to note that HTS has governed in Idlib Province in the north of Syria for the past four or five years and has done so in a fairly heavy handed fashion. It is not a democratic movement. And so to the extent that it now is expressing a willingness to be more inclusive in how it shapes the future Syria, we really do have some reasons for concern in terms of whether it will live up to those commitments down the road.

[Ari Shapiro]

Stephen Heidemann is director of the Middle East Studies Program at Smith College. Thank you for talking with us today.

[Steven Heidemann]

Thank you very much, Ari.

[Ari Shapiro]

This episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Michael Levitt. With additional reporting from Rob Schmitz and Juana Summers. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Justine Kennan. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. Thanks to our Consider this Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. Learn [e-mail] It's Consider this from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.

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