Brian Mann (3:38)

Thinking about something this big, how the world's population is changing, how that's transforming the global economy is overwhelming. So I want to start really small with just one person, Ashley Evancho.

Juana Summers (3:49)

My degree is in finance and I work and financial services.

Brian Mann (3:53)

Evancho is 32, lives in a suburb of Buffalo, New York. And she's built a great career thinking in practical ways about the economy. A few years ago, she and her husband Nick decided it was time to have a baby. Their three year old daughter Sophia is a joy. But Ivancho says they also reached another decision.

Juana Summers (4:10)

I don't need another one. I don't want another one. I love having only one child. It is, I think, a very elegant choice because I still feel like I have balance in my life.

Brian Mann (4:21)

That choice was deeply personal, but it's also one tiny part of a massive shift. Families across the US and in a lot of other countries are having too few children to maintain a stable population, a trend that's been deepening for decades. Melissa Carney is an economist at the University of Notre Dame.

Juana Summers (4:37)

This demographic issue is poised to potentially remake so much of our society and in a way that people just don't seem to be thinking about.

Brian Mann (4:48)

To get a sense for how this can play out in a community and a local economy, I traveled to another upstate New York town, malone, near the U.S. canada border. The main street is lined with handsome brick and stone buildings, but many of the storefronts are empty. The decline that you can see started a long time ago. Jeremy Evans is in charge of economic development for Franklin county, which has lost roughly 10% of its population. So few babies are born here, the hospital closed its maternity ward. Sitting in his office, Evans tells me he's worried our population will continue to decline. More worrisome to us is the decline in population of younger people. There are actually plenty of jobs in Malone, Evans says, and he thinks more companies would come here, but there aren't enough workers. His biggest economic goal is trying to stabilize and rebuild the population. If you're an entrepreneur and you want to grow and you can't find employees.

Juana Summers (5:45)

That can be really, really frustrating.

Brian Mann (5:48)

Our number one mission is 18 to 39 year olds. A growing number of economists say this could be the future for much of the US in the 1970s, the average American was 28 years old. Now the average is 39. Every expert I spoke to said America's working age population will continue to gray and eventually shrink, a pattern that will accelerate if the US maintains sharp new limits on immigration. Lant Pritchett is a visiting professor at London School of Economics. It's hard to maintain the dynamism of the economy. I mean, you know, you can't get people to do all kinds of work, from electricians to plumbers to everything else. Pritchett says the impact of this population shift would be big, even if it were only hitting the US the world's largest economy. But families in other G7 countries, the world's other big economies, they're shrinking even faster, say if you live in Europe or parts of Asia. This is everything. Economists say many of the basic assumptions of modern global capitalism evolved when countries were seeing rapid population growth. Businesses could count on a constant increase in young workers, new consumers, and bigger markets that helped governments shore up pension and public health programs. But now deaths already outnumber births in at least three of the world's biggest economies, China, Italy and Japan. Pritchett says it's not clear how economies will work as populations age and shrink in more countries. Hard to tell what's going to happen when things that have never happened before happen. We just don't have any example of countries doing this successfully. The place where this population shift is already happening on an almost unbelievable scale is China, the world's second largest economy. Researchers say over the next two decades, China's working age population will plunge by more than 200 million people. We met Mia Li, who's 20, outside a bustling shopping mall in Beijing. She doesn't have children, and she worries motherhood would be expensive and risky.

Juana Summers (7:47)

Having children requires financial support. But if the economy goes down, how can you possibly afford to raise them?

Brian Mann (7:52)

In this crowded city, it's hard to see the scale of depopulation and rapid aging already underway. But Li works in China's sagging real estate industry, and she says she's already feeling the change.

Juana Summers (8:05)

Housing prices will fall and the number of home buyers will decrease as well.

Brian Mann (8:09)

Economists say most people around the world still aren't aware of the scale of this population shift, which is overshadowed in most people's lives by short term concerns, everything from unemployment and inflation to trade wars and immigration. And some experts, including Claudia golden at Harvard University, say they're not worried about the impact of an aging, shrinking population on the world's economy.

Juana Summers (8:31)

I am not worried about that. Scarcity is everywhere. Trade offs are everywhere. There is no optimal birth rate.

Brian Mann (8:39)

Golden thinks much of the concern about population is a backlash against high rates of immigration and the empowerment of women. But a growing number of economists think the impacts of these demographic changes will grow. Melissa Carney at Notre Dame worries the world faces a future where the cost of having kids, everything from lost career opportunities to high daycare prices, will encourage more couples to opt out of parenting altogether.

Juana Summers (9:04)

The more we become a society that's moving away from one oriented towards children, then the cost of having kids go up and the benefits of remaining childless and pursuing a childless life, the expectations of the workforce, all of that pushes towards amplifying the trend we're already on.

Brian Mann (9:22)

After talking to economists all over the world about this population shift, I wanted to check in again with Ashley Avancho, the financial planner and young mom in Buffalo, New York. She doesn't think families will get bigger again. Couples and women just think differently now about their lives and careers, avancho says, and that means fewer kids.

Juana Summers (9:41)

Today. There are options. We have education. We have the ability to make our own choices in life. Motherhood is not the only option for us anymore, and that's okay.

Brian Mann (9:53)

Evange says the economy and whole societies may have to adapt to what for many families is a new version of normal.

Juana Summers (10:01)

NPR's Brian Mann. This story is part of a broader NPR reporting project looking at the causes and implications of the global trend towards smaller families. You can find a link to the series in the episode Notes. This episode was produced by Paige Waterhouse and Connor Donovan, with audio engineering by Jimmy Keeley. It was edited by Andrea De Leon and Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Juana Summers. A lot of short daily news podcasts focus on just one story, but right now you probably need more on up first from NPR. We bring you three of the world's top headlines every day in under 15 minutes. Because no one story can capture all that's happening in this big, crazy world of ours on any given morning. Listen now to the upverse Podcast from npr. I'm Rachel Martin. If you're tired of small talk, check out the Wild Card Podcast. I invite influential thinkers to open up about the big topics we all think about but rarely talk about. Tune in this fall to hear Mel Robbins, Malala Yousafzai and Brene Brown talk about everything from grief and God to ambition and forgiveness. Watch or listen on the NPR app, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon prime members can listen to Consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this plus@+npr.org that's plus.npr.org.