Podcast Summary: Can the Global Economy Handle a World with Fewer Kids?

Podcast: Consider This from NPR
Host: Juana Summers, with reporting by Brian Mann
Date: October 28, 2025
Episode Length: ~15 minutes

Episode Overview

This episode explores the profound global demographic shift caused by falling birth rates. Hosts and guests discuss the economic and societal consequences of fewer children being born worldwide, delving into the implications for capitalism, labor markets, public programs, and individual family choices. The episode blends personal narratives, expert commentary, and international examples to answer the key question: Can the global economy adapt to a world in population decline?

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Global Birth Rate Decline: Setting the Stage

• Shrinking Populations: Major economies like the EU, Japan, China, and Russia have experienced or are facing declining populations due to sustained low birth rates.
• Causes: Varied reasons include policy intervention (e.g., China's one-child policy), socioeconomic turmoil (post-Soviet Russia), aging populations, and shifting personal priorities. [00:07–00:41]
• Quantitative View: According to UN data, the global average children per woman has dropped by over half since the 1970s. [03:11]

2. Personal Choices and Social Trends

• Case Study – Ashley Evancho:
  • A 32-year-old finance professional from Buffalo, NY, who chose to have one child to maintain balance in her life.
  • Quote: “I don’t need another one. I don’t want another one. I love having only one child. It is, I think, a very elegant choice because I still feel like I have balance in my life.” – Ashley Evancho [04:10]
  • Reflects a growing trend: more families choosing not to have enough children to stabilize population level.

3. Community Impact: Malone, NY

• Economic Consequences:
  • Franklin County’s population has dropped ~10%.
  • Few young people, leading to challenges for business growth (not enough employees) and closure of essential services like maternity wards.
  • Quote: “Our number one mission is 18 to 39 year olds.” – Jeremy Evans, Economic Development, Franklin County [05:48]
  • Ephemeral paradox: Jobs are available, but not enough workers.

4. The Broader Economic Picture

• Aging Workforce:

  • In the 1970s, the average American was 28; now it’s 39.
  • Without more immigration, the US workforce will age and shrink further.
  • “It’s hard to maintain the dynamism of the economy… You can’t get people to do all kinds of work, from electricians to plumbers to everything else.” – Lant Pritchett, London School of Economics [06:18]
  • Trend is starker in other G7 nations.

• Capitalism Meets Demographics:

  • Many assumptions of capitalism (growing workforce and consumer base) are being upended.
  • Countries like China, Italy, and Japan now see more deaths than births.

5. International Perspective: China

• China as a Microcosm:
  • Expected to lose over 200 million working-age people in two decades.
  • Young adults like Mia Li (20, Beijing) are wary of the costs and risks of parenthood.
  • Quote: “Having children requires financial support. But if the economy goes down, how can you possibly afford to raise them?” – Mia Li [07:47]
  • Tangible impact on sectors: Real estate worker Mia Li notes falling home demand. “Housing prices will fall and the number of home buyers will decrease as well.” [08:05]

6. Scholarly Perspectives and Contrasting Views

• Not Everyone Is Worried:
  • Claudia Goldin, Harvard economist:
    • “I am not worried about that. Scarcity is everywhere. Trade offs are everywhere. There is no optimal birth rate.” [08:31]
    • She suggests much of the population “concern” is backlash to immigration and women’s empowerment.
• Worries About Social Fabric:
  • Melissa Kearney, Notre Dame economist:
    • Envisions a feedback loop: higher costs and fewer incentives for childbearing further accelerate the trend.
    • “The more we become a society that’s moving away from one oriented towards children, then the cost of having kids go up and the benefits of remaining childless… pushes towards amplifying the trend we’re already on.” [09:04]

7. Changing Norms & Gender Expectations

• Women’s Empowerment and Education:

  • Growing options for women mean motherhood isn’t seen as obligatory.
  • Quote: “Today. There are options. We have education. We have the ability to make our own choices in life. Motherhood is not the only option for us anymore, and that's okay.” – Ashley Evancho [09:41]

• Societal Adaptation Needed:

  • Conclusion: The economy and societies must adapt to this “new version of normal” where smaller families are common. [09:53]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There are actually plenty of jobs in Malone… but there aren’t enough workers.” – Jeremy Evans [05:16]
• “Hard to tell what’s going to happen when things that have never happened before happen.” – Lant Pritchett [07:28]
• “There is no optimal birth rate.” – Claudia Goldin [08:31]
• “Motherhood is not the only option for us anymore, and that's okay.” – Ashley Evancho [09:41]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:07–01:52 – Overview of declining populations globally; consequences of falling birth rates
• 03:38–04:21 – Personal story: Ashley Evancho, choosing one child
• 04:48–06:18 – Local economic effects in Malone, NY; impact on businesses and demographics
• 06:18–07:28 – Discussion: Economic dynamism, link between workforce age and economic growth
• 07:47–08:09 – Chinese perspective: Mia Li on the cost and reluctance of parenthood
• 08:31–08:39 – Skeptical view of “birthrate panic” by Claudia Goldin
• 09:04–09:22 – Melissa Kearney on social/cultural feedback loops and family choices

Tone and Style

The episode balances data-driven analysis with empathetic storytelling. The mood is thoughtful and at times somber, but remains open-minded, acknowledging both uncertainties and the value of changing social norms. Speakers emphasize both economic realities and the importance of individual freedom in family planning.

Takeaway

Can the global economy endure a world with fewer kids? The answer isn’t clear—while some experts urge focus on adaptation, others warn of significant disruptions. Individual choices, empowered by societal change and gender equality, drive this global trend—requiring economies and communities to reimagine growth, opportunity, and what it means to thrive.

This episode is part of a broader NPR series on the causes and impacts of global demographic change. For more, see the episode notes.