Can the U.S. find the strategic patience needed to end war with Iran?

Summary

Consider This from NPR

Episode: Can the U.S. find the strategic patience needed to end war with Iran?
Date: June 21, 2026
Host: Ping Huang
Guest: Ryan Crocker, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, former U.S. Ambassador to six Middle Eastern countries

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Episode Overview

This episode tackles the high-stakes negotiations between the United States and Iran at the Lake Lucerne Summit in Switzerland, aimed at creating an interim agreement to end the ongoing war. Amid volatile ceasefires, shifting diplomacy, and tactical maneuvers, the discussion focuses on whether the U.S. can exercise the "strategic patience" needed for long-term stability—something Iran has demonstrated but Washington has often lacked.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Status and Challenges of U.S.-Iran Talks

• Summit Set-Up: Vice President J.D. Vance attended negotiations in Switzerland, but warned he could only stay “a day or 2” as talks remain strained.
  • Ping Huang (00:21): “The high stakes negotiations were strained from the start, despite what seemed like momentum last week.”
• Ceasefire Fragility: A U.S.-brokered limited ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah quickly broke down, with renewed fighting in Lebanon.

2. Iran’s Leverage & Volatility in the Gulf

• Strait of Hormuz Moves: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, although U.S. Central Command disputed this.
  • Ryan Crocker (04:18): “They don't have to close the strait. They can just say they closed the strait. And that is going to put international shipping on edge…”
• Tactical Communication: Crocker described Iran’s declarations as strategic, meant to unsettle international commerce and underline their leverage.

3. Negotiating with Hezbollah and Israel

• MOU Requirements: The memorandum signed post-G7 calls for “immediate and permanent termination of hostilities,” requiring both Israel and Hezbollah (with U.S. and Iranian cooperation) to stand down.
  • Ryan Crocker (05:05): “Hezbollah has to terminate hostilities, and it means Israel has to terminate hostilities. Obviously, Iran has to deliver Hezbollah and the US has to deliver Israel.”
• Managing Allies: The U.S. faces the challenge of exerting “unprecedented” pressure on Israel, whose leadership resists external influence, especially with domestic political stakes.
  • Ryan Crocker (06:47): “We're going to have to exert an unprecedented amount of pressure to prevent [Israel continuing its campaign].”
  • Ryan Crocker (06:55): “I can't think of a previous US Administration that has been willing to use that kind of pressure on Israel...”

4. The Need for Strategic Patience

• Long-Haul Perspective: Crocker urges sustained, patient diplomacy given Iran’s proven ability to “play the long game” and the conflict’s complex, decades-long history.
  • Ryan Crocker (07:57): “I would advise the president to exert something that is in short supply with him, strategic patience. The Iranians have it in abundance. They will settle in for a long haul here.”
• Iran’s Mindset: Points out that the Iranian leadership is made up of “hardest of the hard,” IRGC and Iran-Iraq war veterans who know war—not peace.
  • Ryan Crocker (08:38): “Their new leadership is the hardest of the hard. They're all Iran Revolutionary Guard veterans... What I'm not at all certain is that they know how to do peace.”

5. Potential Change from Internal Iranian Dynamics

• Silent Reformist Voices: Crocker notes that prior domestic unrest in Iran showed public appetite for change, but ongoing war has silenced those voices.
  • Ryan Crocker (09:40): “If we can obtain a sustained truce, long term period of peace, we may see public opinion shift back again to that fundamental question: What has my government done for me lately?”
• Importance of a Durable Peace: Belief that a truce could refocus Iranian public attention on domestic needs and government failures.

6. War’s Accomplishments and Human Toll

• Military Impact: U.S. efforts have damaged Iranian infrastructure, yet Iran displays resilience and sustained capacity for conflict.
  • Ryan Crocker (10:30): “Clearly, we've done significant damage to Iran's infrastructure, including its military infrastructure. Its surface navy has been virtually obliterated...But they have shown an ability, an incredible resilience, an ability to keep on fighting.”
• Lebanese Suffering: Heavy casualties and displacement; Crocker emotionally reflects on Lebanon’s burden.
  • Ping Huang (10:56): “The fighting in Lebanon has killed at least 4,000 people, according to the country's Health Ministry.”
  • Ryan Crocker (11:09): “It's heartbreaking. The Lebanese people have borne the brunt of this conflict...It's the Lebanese people who paid the price.”

7. Humanitarian Solutions and Central Governance

• Aid for Lebanon: Crocker urges increased U.S. funding to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees to stabilize Lebanon both for humanitarian and strategic reasons.
  • Ryan Crocker (11:50): “The best way we can deliver that would be through increased assistance to UNHCR for the displaced, again, both for humanitarian and strategic reasons.”
• Central Government Role: Emphasizes eventual settlement depends on effective Lebanese central government control.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Patience vs. Quick Fixes:
  • Ryan Crocker (07:57): “There are no quick fixes to this current crisis, not in the Gulf and not with respect to Iran's nuclear capabilities and not respect to south Lebanon. So we need some sustained patience. And again, President Trump is not noted for his sustained patience.”
• On Pressure to Allies:
  • Ryan Crocker (06:55): “I can't think of a previous US administration that has been willing to use that kind of pressure on Israel, particularly in Lebanon.”
• On Iran’s Strategy:
  • Ryan Crocker (04:46): “It is.” (Confirming that Iran’s moves in the Strait of Hormuz are deliberate, strategic signals.)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:21 — Strained negotiations and resumption of fighting in Lebanon
• 03:15 — Introduction to Ryan Crocker and negotiation outlook
• 04:18 — Analysis of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz tactics
• 05:05 — MOU and ceasefire conditions
• 06:10-06:55 — History and challenges of U.S. pressure on Israel
• 07:57 — Call for "strategic patience"
• 08:38 — Iran’s leadership and the long war
• 09:40 — How a truce could shift Iranian public focus
• 10:30 — Assessment of U.S. objectives and Iran’s resilience
• 11:09 — Humanitarian impact in Lebanon and call for aid
• 11:50 — Need for centralized government and increased UNHCR assistance

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Conclusion

“Consider This” lays out the diplomatic minefield facing U.S. negotiators in Switzerland, where short-term deals seem perpetually undermined by long-term rivalries and tactical maneuvering. Ryan Crocker, drawing on decades of experience, underscores that only with extraordinary patience, relentless diplomacy, and humanitarian support—backed by pressure on all sides—might some sustainable peace emerge. Until then, “quick fixes” remain elusive, and the people of Lebanon, as ever, pay the highest price.

Transcript

[Ping Huang]

It's consider this where every day we go deep on one big news story. Vice President J.D. vance went to Switzerland to hold talks with Iran at a mountainside resort. They're trying to move forward the interim agreement to end the war.

[Podcast Host or Announcer]

The question before us now is how

[Ryan Crocker]

much more can we accomplish together?

[Podcast Host or Announcer]

Can we turn over a new leaf? Can we change relations in the Middle east permanently?

[Ping Huang]

The high stakes negotiations were strained from the start, despite what seemed like momentum last week.

[Ryan Crocker]

We have an agreement that was signed last night and it's 60 days. They have to make a deal. Otherwise we, we will do things that won't make them happy.

[Ping Huang]

President Trump had signed a memorandum of understanding after the G7 summit in France. And soon after, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a limited ceasefire that could keep Iran at the negotiating table. But the fighting in Lebanon resumed over the weekend. The Iranian military said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz in response, though US Central Command disputed that it's closed. Consider this Vice President Vance warned that he could only stay in Switzerland for, quote, a day or 2. But the US and Iran remain very far apart. Former Ambassador Ryan Crocker told me that Iran is settling in for the long haul, so the US Needs strategic patience if it wants long term stability in the Middle East. From npr, I'm pink huang.

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[Ping Huang]

It's considered this from npr. The talks in Switzerland between the US And Iran to permanently end the war were dubbed the Lake Lucerne Summit. To understand the hurdles for the negotiators at Lucerne, we turn to Ryan Crocker. He's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former ambassador to six Middle Eastern countries, including Lebanon. Ambassador Crocker, welcome.

[Ryan Crocker]

Thank you.

[Ping Huang]

What is your read on what can come from these talks?

[Ryan Crocker]

I think our expectations need to be firmly under control. It's not going to resolve itself in a day or two days, or even very likely not in 60 days. So I think the emphasis has to be on stabilizing the ceasefires in the Gulf and in South Lebanon. Projecting a lot of patience, because this is going to be a long haul.

[Ping Huang]

Yeah. I mean, one moment the president says that the deal is on track, and then the next moment the Iranians say that they've closed the strait. What is your take on why the back and forth?

[Ryan Crocker]

Well, I think it reflects the fundamental volatility of the situation, and it also reflects the control the Iranians now have over the strait. They don't have to close the strait. They can just say they closed the strait. And that is going to put international shipping on edge. It's probably going to reduce the flow of traffic through the strait. This war has changed a lot of things, none of them for the better as far as the United States is concerned.

[Ping Huang]

Mm. So. So it's a strategy, is what you're saying.

[Ryan Crocker]

It is.

[Ping Huang]

Yeah. The fighting in Lebanon is a recurring roadblock in achieving some kind of peace Israel and Hezbollah both agreed to, and then they reneged on a ceasefire deal just in the last few days. I'm wondering what negotiators can do if neither of these parties seem interested in a truce.

[Ryan Crocker]

Well, the MOU is reasonably clear on this. It calls in its first paragraph for an immediate and permanent termination of. Of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. And that is unconditional. It means that Hezbollah has to terminate hostilities, and it means Israel has to terminate hostilities. Obviously, Iran has to deliver Hezbollah and the US has to deliver Israel. This is where it could all fall apart.

[Ping Huang]

Yeah. Regarding the US Role here, JD Vance said before he left yesterday that the US Would, quote, just have to manage Israel and Lebanon. Can the US Just manage them?

[Ryan Crocker]

We've got a long Checkered history of dealing with Israel in Lebanon and dealing with adversaries of both the United States and Israel in Lebanon. I'm a Veteran of the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. I was assigned to the embassy in Beirut then, in which Israel launched a full scale invasion all the way up to Beirut, which it occupied briefly to eliminate the plo.

[Ping Huang]

That's the Palestine Liberation Organization.

[Ryan Crocker]

That's right, they did that. But in the process, they helped give birth to Hezbollah, a far more formidable enemy that they have been engaged against on and off since 1982. So if we're going to enforce and sustain a truce, it's going to take an awful lot of pressure on Israel. And again, Hezbollah and Iran are going to have to reciprocate. Israel is going to be looking for excuses to continue its campaign in South Lebanon, and we're going to have to exert an unprecedented amount of pressure to prevent that.

[Ping Huang]

Both the President and the vice president have said that they're putting pressure on Israel to come to a ceasefire in Lebanon. What do you make of that effort?

[Ryan Crocker]

Well, it's been an extraordinary undertaking. I can't think of a previous US Administration that has been willing to use that kind of pressure on Israel, particularly in Lebanon. Whether they will sustain it and how the Israelis will react remain to be seen. The Israelis have always said that they are the masters of their own destiny. They will make their own decisions on war and peace. And that has certainly been the case in Lebanon. And clearly the Israeli prime minister is not happy with the status quo. He's made that, I think clear. And the Israeli public is unhappy with the status quo, and they're looking at elections in the near term. So again, if calm is to prevail in south Lebanon, it's going to require an intensive, unprecedented, sustained effort on the part of the United States with Israel. And that can only have a chance of success if Hezbollah is similarly restrained.

[Ping Huang]

You've emphasized that long term stability depends on a sustained dialogue and not just military pressure. What would you advise the president to do right now?

[Ryan Crocker]

I would advise the president to exert something that is in short supply with him, strategic patience. The Iranians have it in abundance. They will settle in for a long haul here. And there are no quick fixes to this current crisis, not in the Gulf and not with respect to Iran's nuclear capabilities and not respect to south Lebanon. So we need some sustained patience. And again, President Trump is not noted for his sustained patience.

[Ping Huang]

Tell me a little bit more about the strategic patience. This is a strategy that you've long advocated for in the Middle East. What does that look like? What could that look like in this case?

[Ryan Crocker]

Well, in this case it's a long war. It began some 43 years ago with the bombing of the US embassy in Beirut. Iran has been, as it were, on a war footing with the US for more than four decades. The US Is only episodically aware of that. So we've got to first adjust our sights here that this has been a long, sustained campaign. It does not end with this mou. And we've got to think about the long haul. What does that mean in practical terms? What are our options again, to create a set of conditions that look like long term lasting stability in the Gulf and in South Lebanon. What was this do? Well, it could change the dynamic. The current Iranian regime is very much on a war footing. Their new leadership is the hardest of the hard. They're all Iran Revolutionary Guard veterans. They're all veterans of the Iran Iraq war. They know how to do war. What I'm not at all certain is that they know how to do peace. And we saw in January with the sustained violent demonstrations in the Tehran and other Iranian cities, a resolve on the part of the Iranian people that they want a better life. Now, with the conflict raging, those voices are silent. But if we can obtain a sustained truce, long term period of peace, we may see public opinion shift back again to that fundamental question. What has my government done for me lately? And what the Iranian government has done for its people, of course, has been repressive, violent, given them no economic hope, little chance for a better future for their kids. That's what we want to get the

[Ping Huang]

focus back on at this point. Do you think that any of the goals of the war have been met in your view?

[Ryan Crocker]

Well, it's kind of hard to keep track of what our goals in the war have been. Clearly, we've done significant damage to Iran's infrastructure, including its military infrastructure. Its surface navy has been virtually obliterated. Its ballistic missile capacity has been significantly reduced. But they have shown an ability, an incredible resilience, an ability to keep on fighting.

[Ping Huang]

The fighting in Lebanon has killed at least 4,000 people, according to the country's Health Ministry. And Ambassador Crocker, you were ambassador to that country many years ago. I'm wondering how you feel watching this war carry on.

[Ryan Crocker]

It's heartbreaking. Again, the Lebanese people have borne the brunt of this conflict. Whether it was the PLO in the 70s and 80s or Hezbollah in the 80s, 90s and 2000s. It's the Lebanese people who paid the price. And with more than a million displaced now, the strain on the Lebanese government is and the human suffering is just immense. Then I would urge the administration to increase its funding for UNHCR for humanitarian reasons, but also to help stabilize the situation within Lebanon and to stabilize The Lebanese government.

[Ping Huang]

UNHCR. That's the UN's refugee agency.

[Ryan Crocker]

It's. Yeah, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, because ultimately a solution in Lebanon can only come through central government control. Right now they need our assistance and the best way we can deliver that would be through increased assistance to UNHCR for the displaced, again, both for humanitarian and strategic reasons.

[Ping Huang]

Ryan Crocker is former U.S. ambassador to Lebanon and is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. Thank you.

[Ryan Crocker]

Thank you, Bing.

[Ping Huang]

This episode was produced by Jason Fuller. It was edited by Sarah Robbins. Our interim executive producer is Courtney Dor.

[Podcast Host or Announcer]

Foreign.

[Ping Huang]

It's considered this from NPR. I'm Ping Huang.

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