Can Trump turn promises into policy?

Summary

Consider This from NPR – Episode: "Can Trump Turn Promises into Policy?"
Release Date: December 16, 2024
Host: Mary Louise Kelly

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Introduction

In this compelling episode of NPR's Consider This, host Mary Louise Kelly delves into the ambitious policy agenda laid out by President Donald Trump on the first day of his administration. Titled "Can Trump Turn Promises into Policy?", the episode examines the feasibility and potential impact of Trump's promises, featuring an in-depth conversation with senior Trump adviser, Jason Miller.

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Trump’s Day One Promises

Economic Reforms and Prosperity

• Timestamp [00:00]: Donald Trump declares, “Starting on day one, we'll implement a rapid series of bold reforms to restore our nation to full prosperity. We're going to go full prosperity and to build the greatest economy the world has ever seen, just as we have.”
• Analysis: Trump emphasizes a swift and comprehensive approach to economic revitalization, aiming to replicate the economic successes of his previous term.

Immigration and Deportation

• Timestamp [00:32]: Trump announces, “On day one, I will launch the largest deportation program of criminals in the history of our country.”
• Timestamp [00:14]: Discusses policies like "remain in Mexico" and abolishing "catch and release."
• Adviser Insight: Jason Miller explains that the administration plans to reinstate previous Trump-era immigration policies through executive orders, focusing on deporting criminal immigrants and tightening border security without halting legal trade and commerce.

Energy Policy

• Timestamp [00:41]: Trump states, “On day one, we're going to drill, baby, drill.”
• Analysis: A clear commitment to expanding domestic energy production, reversing previous administration restrictions to lower energy costs and stimulate economic growth.

Education Reform

• Timestamp [00:44]: Trump vows, “We're going to take the Department of Education. Close it. I'm going to close it.”
• Adviser Insight: Miller does not delve deeply into education, but the statement signals potential significant restructuring or elimination of federal oversight in education.

Gender-Affirming Care

• Timestamp [00:49]: Trump declares, “On day one, I will sign an executive order instructing every federal agency to cease the promotion of sex or gender transition at any age.”
• Analysis: This move aims to restrict federal support and funding for gender-affirming medical procedures, reflecting Trump's stance on social issues.

Ukraine Conflict

• Timestamp [01:04]: Trump promises, “Russians and Ukrainians, I want them to stop dying. And I'll have that done. I'll have that done in 24 hours. I'll have it.”
• Analysis: A bold claim addressing the ongoing war in Ukraine, suggesting immediate diplomatic or strategic interventions to halt casualties.

Pardons for January 6th Rioters

• Timestamp [01:15]: Trump asserts, “First day... I'm looking to issue these pardons.”
• Adviser Insight: Miller discusses the near-absolute nature of presidential pardon powers but acknowledges the complexities and potential legal challenges in implementing widespread pardons.

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In-Depth Discussion with Jason Miller

Implementation of Immigration Policies

• Timestamp [04:14]: Miller outlines the immediate reinstatement of Trump-era immigration policies through executive orders, emphasizing the focus on deporting criminal immigrants while maintaining legal trade and travel.
• Quote: “We're going to make it so if you're illegal and you're not coming in through a port of entry, or even if you're trying to come into a port of entry illegally, you're not going to be allowed in.”
• Challenges: Addressing international cooperation, particularly with countries like Mexico and Venezuela, to ensure deported individuals are returned promptly.

Addressing Potential Backlash

• Timestamp [06:09]: Mary Louise Kelly introduces a critique from Jason Hauser, Biden's former ICE chief, who predicts turmoil under Trump's policies.
• Quote from Hauser: “They are, quote, going to be hell.”
• Miller’s Response: He dismisses the pessimistic outlook, asserting confidence in the administration's preparedness and the strength of the executive orders to withstand legal challenges.

Grocery Prices and Inflation Control

• Timestamp [08:21]: Miller discusses the administration’s strategy to combat inflation by reviving energy exploration and reducing federal spending.
• Quote: “If you make energy cheaper, everything becomes cheaper. When you don't go and spend trillions of dollars that we don't have and you get some fiscal sanity restored, then you can curb what future inflation will look like.”
• Interconnected Policies: Miller explains how lowering energy costs will directly reduce the cost of goods, including groceries, thereby addressing one of Trump's key electoral promises.

Balancing Immigration Crackdown with Economic Stability

• Timestamp [11:08]: Kelly raises concerns about potential labor shortages in sectors reliant on immigrant labor, questioning how deportations might affect food prices.
• Miller’s Clarification: He differentiates between illegal immigration and essential legal immigration (e.g., H2A visas for seasonal agricultural workers), asserting that the crackdown targets unauthorized entrants without harming legal labor channels.
• Quote: “We're not talking about lowering the levels of legal immigration. So there are things called the H2A visa where seasonal agriculture workers are allowed to come in.”

Historical Context and Experience

• Timestamp [12:02]: Miller references Trump’s previous term, highlighting the low inflation rate of 1.4% over four years as a benchmark.
• Quote: “What we have to do is... getting the energy exploration and the deregulation that will have an immediate impact for what we do to start reversing that.”
• Strategic Advantage: Leveraging Trump’s existing knowledge and established relationships to implement policies efficiently from day one.

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Conclusions and Insights

Mary Louise Kelly and Jason Miller explore the intricate balance between swiftly implementing bold policies and navigating potential legal and economic challenges. Miller underscores the administration's confidence in executing Trump’s promises effectively, drawing on past experiences and established strategies. However, the episode also implicitly highlights the complexities inherent in such ambitious policy agendas, including international cooperation, economic interdependencies, and public response.

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Notable Quotes

• Donald Trump on Economic Prosperity:
  “[00:00] ‘Starting on day one, we'll implement a rapid series of bold reforms to restore our nation to full prosperity.’”

• Jason Miller on Immigration Policies:
  “[04:14] ‘We're going to make it so if you're illegal and you're not coming in through a port of entry... you're not going to be allowed in.’”

• Jason Miller on Inflation Control:
  “[08:21] ‘If you make energy cheaper, everything becomes cheaper.’”

• Jason Miller on Legal vs. Illegal Immigration:
  “[11:08] ‘We're not talking about lowering the levels of legal immigration... seasonal agriculture workers are allowed to come in.’”

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Final Thoughts

"Can Trump Turn Promises into Policy?" offers a thorough examination of President Trump's immediate policy actions and the strategies behind them. Through expert analysis and direct insights from a key Trump adviser, the episode provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the potential successes and challenges facing the new administration. Whether one agrees with Trump's agenda or not, the episode underscores the significant changes poised to shape the nation's trajectory in the coming months.

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Produced by Mark Rivers and Connor Donovan. Edited by Courtney Dorning. Executive Producer: Sammy Yenigun.

Transcript

[Donald Trump]

Starting on day one, we'll implement a rapid series of bold reforms to restore our nation to full prosperity. We're going to go full prosperity and to build the greatest economy the world has ever seen, just as we have.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

This morning in Florida. President elect Donald Trump gave his first press conference since winning the election. That promise to restore, quote, full prosperity. It comes alongside several other promises he made on the campaign trail. For what he'll do on day one, there's what he says he'll do about immigration.

[Donald Trump]

On day one, I will launch the largest deportation program of criminals in the history of our country.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

What he says he'll do on energy.

[Donald Trump]

On day one, we're going to drill, baby, drill.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Education.

[Donald Trump]

We're going to take the Department of Education. Close it. I'm going to close it.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Gender affirming care.

[Donald Trump]

On day one, I will sign an executive order instructing every federal agency to cease the promotion of sex or gender transition at any age. They're not going to do it anymore.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

The war in Ukraine, they're dying.

[Donald Trump]

Russians and Ukrainians, I want them to stop dying. And I'll have that done. I'll have that done in 24 hours. I'll have it.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And the pardons for the January 6th rioters.

[Donald Trump]

First day.

[Jason Miller]

First day.

[Donald Trump]

Yeah. I'm looking for issue these pardons. These people have been there. How long is it? Three or four years?

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Presidential pardon powers are near absolute. But the rest of his promises might not be so easy to implement. Consider this. President elect Donald Trump has laid out a massive mandate for his first day in office. How much of it can he actually get done? Coming up, a conversation with a senior Trump advisor from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

[Jason Miller]

This message comes from Carvana. With Carvana Value Tracker, you can track your car's value anytime, anywhere. Carvana will even let you know when your car's value changes with updated emails. However you value your car, know its worth with Carvana Value Value Tracker. This is Eric Glass on this American Life. We like stories that surprise you. For instance, imagine finding a new hobby and realizing to do this hobby right according to the ways of the masters. There's a pretty good chance that you're going to have to bend the law to get the materials that you need, if not break it. Yeah. To break international laws. Real life stories, really good ones. This American Life. Ho, ho, ho. Santa here coming to you from the North Pole, where the elves in our podcast division have just completed work on this season's best gift for public radio lovers. NPR plus give the gift of sponsored free listening and even bonus episodes from your favorite NPR podcasts, all while supporting public media. Learn more at plus.NPR.org it's consider this from NPR.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Donald Trump becomes the 47th president of the United States in just over a month. All through his campaign, Trump laid out a list, things he plans to accomplish in a second term, some of them on day one. They include closing the border, imposing tariffs, ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump also campaigned on bringing down food prices. In fact, he told NBC's Kristen Welker that's the reason he won.

[Donald Trump]

I won on the border and I won on groceries. It's a very simple word, groceries, like almost, you know who uses the word? I started using the word the groceries. When you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time. And I won an election based on that.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Here to talk through the incoming president's long to do list is one of the people working with him to get it done, senior adviser Jason Miller. He worked on all three of the president elect's campaigns. And he's here in the studio me now. Welcome.

[Jason Miller]

Thank you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Let's dive in with the border. Will Trump close the U.S. southern border on day one?

[Jason Miller]

Well, we're going to put the Trump policies back in place. So if you liked what we had during the first four years of the Trump administration, you're going to like what he's going to do. So we talk about remain in Mexico, we talk about catch and release will be abolished. For example, Title 42, I would expect to be back. And there'll probably be some other measures. So literally on day one, these are things where there'll be EOs in place, executive orders. So that's something that the president can it doesn't have to go through Congress. So his policies are and again, just.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

On that basic question, close the border, not close the border. Day one, what's the timeline?

[Jason Miller]

Well, we're going to make it so if you're illegal and you're not coming in through a port of entry, or even if you're trying to come into a port of entry illegally, you're not going to be allowed in. Now, when you say close the border, the impression is that nobody's allowed to go back and forth. What the border will be closed to is for people trying to enter the United States illegally. So there's a distinction there. I want to make sure people don't think that all of a sudden all trade between the countries or tradition, commerce is going to be shut down.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And as you know, the president of Mexico has not fully signed off on these policies, nor have some of the countries that Donald Trump would like to send these people back to. What happens if, say, Venezuela says, no, we're not taking them back, they'll take them back.

[Jason Miller]

And realizing, of course, that some leaders have to talk a little bit tough. They don't want to seem as though they're being steamrolled, but the fact of the matter is that they're going to have to take them back. They're not staying in the United States because they're their people and they're entering the United States illegally and they're going to be sent back. So day one, the president can put his policies back in place to secure the border. And let's talk about the team that's working on that for a moment. We have Stephen Miller, who led that effort largely from inside the White House during the first administration. Tom Homan, who's the former ICE director, will be leading, but he'll be doing that from a border czar position inside of the West Wing. Inside of the White House, we'll also have Kristi Noem, who'll be the head of DNA, Department of Homeland Security. We have to get her confirmed first.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Stephen and Tom, I was going to say some of these are subject to Senate confirmation. Right.

[Jason Miller]

And so Stephen and Tom do not need to be confirmed. They're already putting all of this together. So literally, on day one, the president will start signing executive orders for the things that he can do unilaterally by himself.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I want to play you something. This is from President Biden's former chief of staff for ice, Jason Hauser. He was speaking on this American Life. He was commenting on what he thinks the first weeks under Trump are going to look like. And he said they are, quote, going to be hell.

[Jason Miller]

You're going to see kids not in your schools. You're going to know where they're at because they're waiting in the detention cell and they have cell phones. You're going to see it in social media. You're going to see businesses not be able to open up because their workers didn't show up. You're going to see businesses being raided.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Jason Miller, is he wrong?

[Jason Miller]

And I chuckle not because I'm taking the issue lightly, because it is such a bat. You know, what insane comment for this gentleman to make. Here's the reality. Like I said, on day one, President Trump will close the border, put his policies back in place. We immediately will start moving to Deport the criminal illegals who are here and already cleared and authorized and ready to go. They'll immediately start to work on getting other criminal illegals who are detained, making sure that they're processed and we can get them. Because there are certain legal actions that you have to go through with on a case by case basis to get folks return to their countries and then working with local sheriffs, local police departments. We're going to focus on the criminal illegals. Think about the transnational gang members. TDA Ms. 13 that is going to be the priority focus.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Are you expecting to get sued over some of these policies? I'm remembering some of the chaos that ensued last time around. The first Trump administration, there was a ban on travel from Muslim majority countries. All kinds of confusion followed.

[Jason Miller]

Well, obviously you can never determine exactly what people who oppose your policies will do, but I think that the experience level and the skill and the preparation coming into this administration, having done it once before, will have all of these executive orders be airtight as well as the actions that DHS then goes and puts in place once Kristi Noema is in there and they start moving ahead.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Let me shift you to grocery prices. We heard the president elect a moment ago saying he believes he won on that issue. He also just told Time magazine that it is, quote, hard to bring things down once they're up, meaning prices hard to bring them down once they're up. Is he backtracking?

[Jason Miller]

No. I mean, two things can be true at the same time here. So let's talk about why inflation happened. I'll give kind of the Reader's Digest version.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Well, if I could actually direct you, I would love to hear the how. How is he going to bring grocery prices down when he's saying it's hard.

[Jason Miller]

But it's important to also connect them. Here's what happened and here's why. Because I want people to have the confidence to know that this is something that he can do. When Biden came in, the first thing he did was start cutting off a lot of the energy exploration and repealing permits and things of that nature for where people were able to drill in the US that caused energy to become more expensive. So think about it. How do you get apples to your local grocery store? How do you get the bakery deliveries? Everything drives on fuel. The other part too. Keep in mind, under Biden and Herr, show those two massive spending bills which even the Biden Harris supporters would admit caused an additional massive spike with regard to inflation. Those two things getting the sound monetary policy back as well as Getting the energy exploration and the deregulation that will have an immediate impact for what we do to start reversing that. In particular regard to groceries, you're making.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

The wider point that this is a complex issue. How we get the prices of eggs, how do we get the prices of food?

[Jason Miller]

I'd push back a little bit on that. And what I would say is that if you make energy cheaper, everything becomes cheaper. When you don't go and spend trillions of dollars that we don't have and you get some fiscal sanity restored, then you can curb what future inflation will look like. And so I think this one, two punch will make a real difference in people's lives. And look, I think what the President said to Kristen Welker was spot on. Groceries was the reason I live in a household where I will admit, especially because I'm on the road so much, I don't do the majority of shopping. I went in to go get cereal. I love my cereal when I'm home. And I went in and my big, massive jumbo size box of. I like Crunch Berries. I know they're not super healthy. It was like, almost nine bucks for this big box of cereals. Like, what the hell is going on? I mean, this hits people.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

It matters to people.

[Jason Miller]

It matters.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

People vote with their checkbooks and they care about it. Just to ask about the interplay of the two things we've talked about so far. Immigration. How expensive your cereal box is. Would a crackdown on immigration not drive prices up rather than down? Tight labor market, things like agriculture, things like meat processing. Those jobs are largely reliant on immigrant labor. How would a massive deportation program not end up driving up the prices of your cereal?

[Jason Miller]

Yeah, my eggs. Great question. So I want to make sure that people understand what we're talking about is cutting down and completely stopping illegal immigration for people who are not legally authorized to enter our country to come into our country and start working. We're not talking about lowering the levels of legal immigration. So there are things called the H2A visa where seasonal agriculture workers are allowed to come in. Could there even be a conversation about that being expanded? Possibly, but you have to enter the country legally, bottom line.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

You don't think it's mutually exclusive to crack down on immigration and bring back Trump policies that you believe were successful the first time around and yet bring down prices for Americans?

[Jason Miller]

Oh, you can do both.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I'm asking. I'm citing a Wall Street Journal poll. This was with economists taken the month right before the election. Only 12% of those economists thought that Trump was the better candidate on taming inflation.

[Jason Miller]

I mean, come on. All we have to do is look back at President Trump's first term, where we had four years and he had 1.4% inflation. That's almost no inflation. I mean, usually anything below 2%, people view as being pretty good. 1.4% for his four years. And that's even with of the tariffs that were put in place with the tax cuts. That was such a phenomenal record.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And I mentioned you were around in 2016, 2017. What is different this time? What did you learn from the first time around that will inform how you attack things this time?

[Jason Miller]

Yeah. Another great question. It's fascinating to watch having kind of had a front row seat with all this with President Trump in 2016, he knew what he wanted to do from kind of a macro vision, prove the economy, secure the border. Now he knows exactly how he wants to do it. So the fact that he had his entire cabinet named by Thanksgiving, he had a chief of staff, Susie Wiles, named before Thanksgiving, his kind of his senior White House team. He knows exactly what it is. So a lot of times when you have incoming presidents, they're trying to figure out, this sounds a little bit crass, but, you know, where's the bathroom? You know, what are the logistics? How does this place work? Not only does President Trump know how the West Wing and how the White House works, he knows how to do it with other foreign leaders as well. And not even just foreign leaders. I was with him, for example, when Justin Trudeau called him a few weeks ago, and he immediately.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Justin Trudeau of Canada.

[Jason Miller]

And he immediately started talking about the Canadian trade advisor who's a tough negotiator in her own right. And, I mean, he knows the people going down to the finance ministers in these various countries, those personal relationships are there to where he can just pick up the phone and make things happen. And I think Americans, whether you voted for President Trump or you didn't have to respect the fact that he knows what to do and how to do it. We're going to have strong leadership in the White House, and I think that will impress people as we start pushing forward to some of these agenda items.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That is senior Trump adviser Jason Miller. Thanks for stopping by.

[Jason Miller]

Hey, thank you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

This episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Connor Donovan. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer, Sammy Yenigun. It's consider this from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

[Jason Miller]

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