Podcast Summary: Consider This from NPR

Episode: Could next week's elections predict the political future?
Date: October 31, 2025
Host: Juana Summers
Guests: Mara Liasson (Senior National Political Correspondent), Domenico Montanaro (Senior Political Editor and Correspondent)

Overview

This episode of Consider This dives into the upcoming state and local elections, specifically in California, Virginia, and New Jersey, and explores whether their outcomes could foreshadow what’s to come in the 2026 midterms. With insights from NPR political reporters Mara Liasson and Domenico Montanaro, the episode examines why these elections receive outsized attention, what redistricting battles mean nationally, and how big city mayoral races could shape party branding.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Why Do These Off-Year Elections Matter?

Juana Summers opens with skepticism about polls and underlines why analysts focus on so few contests in off-years.

• Historical Indicators:

  • Off-year elections in places like Virginia and New Jersey frequently act as national bellwethers for midterms.
  • Mara Liasson: “They have often predicted the results of upcoming midterms, especially how bad a shellacking the party in power will take. But, of course, historical rules only work till they stop working.” [03:05]

• Current Political Climate:

  • Both parties watch closely due to the Democrats' unpopularity and local factors like the federal shutdown impacting large numbers of voters in Virginia.

• Pattern Noted:

  • Domenico Montanaro: “In Virginia, 11 of the last 12 governors races have gone to the party that's out of power in the White House.” [03:39]
  • Off-year elections are a chance for opposition-aligned voters to register protest or frustration.

2. California’s Redistricting Ballot Fight

• Prop 50 Significance:

  • California votes on Proposition 50, which would suspend the state’s mandate for an independent commission to draw congressional districts.
  • Domenico Montanaro: “This is really about control of the House. … On the ballot is Proposition 50, which would temporarily get rid of that requirement.” [04:34]
  • The resulting “redistricting arms race” is seen as a response to partisan redistricting maneuvers in other states, notably Texas.

• National Repercussions:

  • Mara Liasson: “California is more significant because it's a big state and it has more opportunities for Democrats to carve out some more Democratic-leaning seats. But redistricting in general is the big story of the midterms.” [05:24]
  • Discussion of the structural advantages Republicans hold, such as more “trifectas” (single-party control of governorships and legislatures) and efficient voter distribution, results in challenges for Democrats despite national mood swings.

• Historical Volatility:

  • Domenico Montanaro: “We've seen the most flips of control of the House in the last 20 years, since the years just after the Civil War, since Reconstruction.” [06:22]
  • Tighter margins in the House mean each district matters more than ever. With just “three seats” separating the parties, minor shifts can have outsized effects.

3. Mayoral Race in New York City: A New Democratic Narrative?

• Zoran Mamdani’s Campaign:

  • Expected to become the next NYC mayor, Mamdani is spotlighted by Republicans as the embodiment of the party’s left flank.
  • Mara Liasson: “Republicans are very confident that they will be successful in making Mamdani into a … far left extremist boogeyman hanging around the neck of the Democrats.” [07:26]

• Policy Orientation and Party Messaging:

  • Mamdani focuses his campaign on affordability, public safety, and economic issues—key voter concerns.
  • Domenico Montanaro: “If he's successful, then I think you see a lot more Democrats being able to jump on board that agenda.” [07:52]
  • If challenges emerge, the party may gravitate toward more centrist candidates.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Reading Tea Leaves from Elections:

  • Juana Summers: “The gold standard for anyone reading political tea leaves is an election. But the midterms are still a long way away.” [00:08]

• On Historical Rules:

  • Mara Liasson: “Historical rules only work till they stop working.” [03:12]

• On Volatility in Congress:

  • Domenico Montanaro: “We've seen the most flips of control of the House … since Reconstruction.” [06:22]

• On Redistricting Advantages:

  • Mara Liasson: “Republican voters are just more efficiently distributed throughout the heartland. Democrats are more inefficiently mashed for electoral purposes on the coasts and around metro areas, and it just makes them much easier to gerrymander.” [05:57]

• On the Stakes for Democrats:

  • Domenico Montanaro: “Democrats would have to be, and I say this as a Mets fan, the New York Mets of politics, not to get the House back.” [06:45]

• Mayoral Race Framing:

  • Mara Liasson: “Will [Mamdani] address voters' number one concern, which is public safety, but also deliver on his affordability agenda for transportation and rent and childcare?” [07:30]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Big governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia discussed - 02:55–04:20
• California redistricting and Prop 50 explained - 04:20–05:24
• National implications of redistricting and House control volatility - 05:24–07:11
• NYC mayoral race and party branding - 07:11–08:23

Tone & Style

The episode is brisk, analytical, and leans on both data and narrative. The tone is conversational but direct, as is typical of NPR’s news coverage. The correspondents balance a sense of political gravity with occasional humor (like Mets analogies) to keep the analysis relatable.

Summary Takeaway

The upcoming “off-year” elections offer important clues—but not guarantees—about the political climate heading into the 2026 midterms. While local factors remain key, structural issues like redistricting and the evolving brands of both major parties (especially as symbolized by high-profile mayoral races) have national implications. For anyone tracking which way the political winds may blow next year, watching these contests is essential.