Could next week's elections predict the political future?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Consider This from NPR

Episode: Could next week's elections predict the political future?
Date: October 31, 2025
Host: Juana Summers
Guests: Mara Liasson (Senior National Political Correspondent), Domenico Montanaro (Senior Political Editor and Correspondent)

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Overview

This episode of Consider This dives into the upcoming state and local elections, specifically in California, Virginia, and New Jersey, and explores whether their outcomes could foreshadow what’s to come in the 2026 midterms. With insights from NPR political reporters Mara Liasson and Domenico Montanaro, the episode examines why these elections receive outsized attention, what redistricting battles mean nationally, and how big city mayoral races could shape party branding.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Why Do These Off-Year Elections Matter?

Juana Summers opens with skepticism about polls and underlines why analysts focus on so few contests in off-years.

• Historical Indicators:

  • Off-year elections in places like Virginia and New Jersey frequently act as national bellwethers for midterms.
  • Mara Liasson: “They have often predicted the results of upcoming midterms, especially how bad a shellacking the party in power will take. But, of course, historical rules only work till they stop working.” [03:05]

• Current Political Climate:

  • Both parties watch closely due to the Democrats' unpopularity and local factors like the federal shutdown impacting large numbers of voters in Virginia.

• Pattern Noted:

  • Domenico Montanaro: “In Virginia, 11 of the last 12 governors races have gone to the party that's out of power in the White House.” [03:39]
  • Off-year elections are a chance for opposition-aligned voters to register protest or frustration.

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2. California’s Redistricting Ballot Fight

• Prop 50 Significance:

  • California votes on Proposition 50, which would suspend the state’s mandate for an independent commission to draw congressional districts.
  • Domenico Montanaro: “This is really about control of the House. … On the ballot is Proposition 50, which would temporarily get rid of that requirement.” [04:34]
  • The resulting “redistricting arms race” is seen as a response to partisan redistricting maneuvers in other states, notably Texas.

• National Repercussions:

  • Mara Liasson: “California is more significant because it's a big state and it has more opportunities for Democrats to carve out some more Democratic-leaning seats. But redistricting in general is the big story of the midterms.” [05:24]
  • Discussion of the structural advantages Republicans hold, such as more “trifectas” (single-party control of governorships and legislatures) and efficient voter distribution, results in challenges for Democrats despite national mood swings.

• Historical Volatility:

  • Domenico Montanaro: “We've seen the most flips of control of the House in the last 20 years, since the years just after the Civil War, since Reconstruction.” [06:22]
  • Tighter margins in the House mean each district matters more than ever. With just “three seats” separating the parties, minor shifts can have outsized effects.

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3. Mayoral Race in New York City: A New Democratic Narrative?

• Zoran Mamdani’s Campaign:

  • Expected to become the next NYC mayor, Mamdani is spotlighted by Republicans as the embodiment of the party’s left flank.
  • Mara Liasson: “Republicans are very confident that they will be successful in making Mamdani into a … far left extremist boogeyman hanging around the neck of the Democrats.” [07:26]

• Policy Orientation and Party Messaging:

  • Mamdani focuses his campaign on affordability, public safety, and economic issues—key voter concerns.
  • Domenico Montanaro: “If he's successful, then I think you see a lot more Democrats being able to jump on board that agenda.” [07:52]
  • If challenges emerge, the party may gravitate toward more centrist candidates.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Reading Tea Leaves from Elections:

  • Juana Summers: “The gold standard for anyone reading political tea leaves is an election. But the midterms are still a long way away.” [00:08]

• On Historical Rules:

  • Mara Liasson: “Historical rules only work till they stop working.” [03:12]

• On Volatility in Congress:

  • Domenico Montanaro: “We've seen the most flips of control of the House … since Reconstruction.” [06:22]

• On Redistricting Advantages:

  • Mara Liasson: “Republican voters are just more efficiently distributed throughout the heartland. Democrats are more inefficiently mashed for electoral purposes on the coasts and around metro areas, and it just makes them much easier to gerrymander.” [05:57]

• On the Stakes for Democrats:

  • Domenico Montanaro: “Democrats would have to be, and I say this as a Mets fan, the New York Mets of politics, not to get the House back.” [06:45]

• Mayoral Race Framing:

  • Mara Liasson: “Will [Mamdani] address voters' number one concern, which is public safety, but also deliver on his affordability agenda for transportation and rent and childcare?” [07:30]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Big governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia discussed - 02:55–04:20
• California redistricting and Prop 50 explained - 04:20–05:24
• National implications of redistricting and House control volatility - 05:24–07:11
• NYC mayoral race and party branding - 07:11–08:23

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Tone & Style

The episode is brisk, analytical, and leans on both data and narrative. The tone is conversational but direct, as is typical of NPR’s news coverage. The correspondents balance a sense of political gravity with occasional humor (like Mets analogies) to keep the analysis relatable.

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Summary Takeaway

The upcoming “off-year” elections offer important clues—but not guarantees—about the political climate heading into the 2026 midterms. While local factors remain key, structural issues like redistricting and the evolving brands of both major parties (especially as symbolized by high-profile mayoral races) have national implications. For anyone tracking which way the political winds may blow next year, watching these contests is essential.

Transcript

[Juana Summers]

Polls can be wrong, sometimes very wrong. As anyone who followed the 2016 presidential election knows, respondents can hide their true feelings. Important groups of voters might not respond at all. That's why the gold standard for anyone reading political tea leaves is an election. But the midterms are still a long way away. And so instead you see an intense focus on the few elections that are happening, whether it's special elections to fill House seats in Florida.

[Domenico Montanaro]

In both these areas, in both these congressional districts, Trump won by plus 31 points, right? So if they essentially cut into that.

[Juana Summers]

Half that amount, or a Wisconsin Supreme.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Court election, we hesitate to read too much into one night in Wisconsin in an off year.

[Daoud Tyler-Amin]

But what does it tell you so far?

[Domenico Montanaro]

In these early days of the Trump.

[Juana Summers]

Administration, everyone is looking for potential national implications in each off year. Race down to a state Senate seat for Sioux City this morning, a Democratic.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Victory in Iowa is giving that party a glimpse of hope, maybe a rare glimpse of hope as the moves toward the midterms.

[Juana Summers]

Consider this Next week brings another big batch of state and local elections. What can they and can't they tell us about the 2026 midterms? From NPR, I'm Juana Summers.

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[Daoud Tyler-Amin]

Hey, I'm Daoud Tyler Amin.

[Mara Liasson]

And I'm Ann Powers.

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We are an editor and a critic at NPR Music, and we're also friends who love digging into music histories and thinking about how songs can change over time.

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And we're doing that on a new show. We're totally nerding out about the songs.

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That just stick with us and why.

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Find our first episode in the All Songs considered feedback on October 23rd.

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[Juana Summers]

Voters head to the polls next week in California, Virginia and New Jersey, among other states. We've asked senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro to help explain what they're watching in these elections and what voters choices might say about the political moment. Hi, guys.

[Mara Liasson]

Hi there.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Hey.

[Juana Summers]

So I just want to start with two really big governor's races. There's one in New Jersey and also one in Virginia. Mara, I'll start with you. Why are Republicans and Democrats both watching these races so closely?

[Mara Liasson]

Well, one reason is because they're the only races, but also because historically they have been a harbinger, a kind of canary in the coal mine. They have often predicted the results of upcoming midterms, especially how bad a shellacking the party in power will take. But of course, historical rules only work till they stop working. And Democrats are very unpopular right now. But on the other hand, in Virginia in particular, there are hundreds of thousands of federal workers who have been affected by the shutdown and by layoffs in the federal government.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah, in Virginia, you know, 11 of the last 12 governors races have gone to the party that's out of power in the White House. So the party that's opposite of the president. Right now, obviously Trump is in the White House. Democrats are feeling good about their chances in a state like Virginia. And off year elections are often, you know, the first chance for voters aligned with the party out of power to register their frustration. You know, Trump's approval is low. Virginia and New Jersey are states that lean Democratic and Democrats are favored, like I said. But the narrative is really important here. Given that these are the first elections and there's a shutdown, there certainly would be a lot of pressure on, you know, Republicans or even Democrats, you know, depending on how, you know, these races go.

[Juana Summers]

And then on the other side of the country, there is another election that we've all been watching really closely. That's in California. And it is not about a single politician that this is about redrawing congressional lines in that state. Domenico, just tell us briefly, what are they considering?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Look, this is really about control of the House. It might be the most important election on Tuesday. It's about how California draws its districts. Right now it's mandated the state to draw them by an independent commission. And on the ballot is Proposition 50, which would temporarily get rid of that requirement. You know, this is all in response to President Trump asking Texas to try and squeeze out five more Republican seats and try and shore up control of the House for the GOP next year. And trying to counterbalance that effort, California Governor Gavin Newsom is trying to squeeze out more Democratic seats, but he needs voters statewide to vote in favor of Prop 50 and is really a redistricting arms race that's been set off all over the country.

[Juana Summers]

I mean, Mara, we have been talking just so much about redistricting all across this country. So I wonder, this specific ballot measure in California, is it more significant than the others we've been talking about, or is there something bigger happening there?

[Mara Liasson]

Well, the answer is yes and yes. In other words, California is more significant because it's a big state and it has more opportunities for Democrats to carve out some more Democratic Democratic leaning seats. But redistricting in general is the big story of the midterms. And the big question is which force is gonna be more powerful? The kind of historical repudiation of the party in power. Remember back in 2018, Donald Trump's first midterm, he and his party lost 40 seats in the House. Or will the structural advantages that Republicans have, particularly in redistricting, help them overcome that voter rejection? Right now, more Republican states have trifectas. In other words, a Republican in the governor's mansion, Republicans controlling the state legislatures, that gives them a lot more opportunity to gerrymander. Plus, Republican voters are just more efficiently distributed throughout the heartland. Democrats are more inefficiently masked for electoral purposes on the coasts and around metro areas, and it just makes them much easier to gerrymander.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Look, we are in a really volatile era. You know, we've seen the most flips of control of the House in the last 20 years, since the years just after the Civil War, since Reconstruction. You know, it's the only other time we've seen it go back and forth as much as it has. And that's because the margins right now really matter. They're narrower than they ever have been. Just three seats right now is what separates Democrats and Republicans, what Democrats would need to win. And historically, midterms are not good for the President's party. The House is ripe for the taking. Trump's approval ratings are low, especially with independents who are so key in those swing districts. So in one respect, the Democrats would have to be, and I say this as a Mets fan, the New York Mets, of politics, not to get the House back. But Democrats are having issues with progressives in their own base who don't exactly love Democratic leadership right now. So a lot at stake and a lot to happen here.

[Juana Summers]

There is also a really big mayoral race that we have to talk about. It is really likely that Zoran Mandani will be elected the next mayor of New York City. And Republicans, they're really trying to make him a far left poster child for the entire Democratic Party. How successful can they really be, though?

[Mara Liasson]

Republicans are very confident that they will be successful in making Mamdani into a kind of far left extremist boogeyman hanging around the neck of the Democrats. But Mamdani has some control over that. The question is, how will he govern New York if he's elected? Will he address voters number one concern, which is public safety, but also deliver on his affordability agenda for transportation and rent and childcare? I mean, we'll see if he can govern New York, make it safer and more affordable to live there.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Yeah, I think this is all about democratic messaging after 2025. You know, Mamdani has been really focused on affordability, freezing rent, making faster buses, universal childcare in the city. But how he governs, like Mara said, is going to be key because if he's successful, then I think you see a lot more Democrats being able to jump on board that agenda. But if he's not, I think you're going to see them sort of shirk away and take more of the approach that some of these candidates who come across as more reserved and more centrist, quote, unquote, in these Virginia and New Jersey races.

[Juana Summers]

That is NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro and senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson. Thanks to both of you.

[Mara Liasson]

Thank you.

[Domenico Montanaro]

You're welcome.

[Juana Summers]

Before we go, a quick thank you to our Consider this Plus listeners who support the show. Your contribution makes it possible for NPR journalists all around the world to do their jobs. Supporters also get to hear every episode with no sponsor Messages. Learn more at plus.NPR.org this episode was produced by Kai McNamee and Connor Donovan. It was edited by Kelsey Snell, Ben Swayze, Jeanette woods and Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Juana Summers.

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