Exploring what the early days of a second Trump administration could look like.

Summary

Consider This from NPR: Exploring the Early Days of a Second Trump Administration

In the latest episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Mary Louise Kelly delves into the potential landscape of a second Donald Trump administration. As the 2024 presidential election concludes, this episode provides an in-depth analysis of Trump's proposed policies, his campaign promises, and the challenges he may face in implementing his vision for America.

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Trump's Vision and Campaign Promises

The episode opens with Donald Trump addressing his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, where he outlines his intentions should he secure a second term. Trump emphasizes a "powerful mandate" from the American people, stating, "I will govern by a simple motto, promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises" [01:21]. Central to his campaign were promises of stringent immigration control and revitalizing the U.S. energy sector.

Key Promises:

• Immigration Crackdown: Trump advocates for "closing the border" and enhancing security [01:34]. He envisions a drastic approach to immigration, including mass deportations.
• Energy Policy: The slogan "drill, baby, drill" encapsulates his commitment to unleashing U.S. energy potential [01:28].

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Immigration Policy: Challenges and Feasibility

NPR political correspondent Daniel Kurtzleben provides a nuanced examination of Trump's immigration proposals. While Trump has repeatedly pledged to "close the border" and initiate mass deportations, Kurtzleben points out significant hurdles:

• Legal Barriers: Implementing the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 for deportations faces constitutional challenges and potential opposition from groups like the ACLU [06:17].
• Logistical Issues: The practicality of deporting millions is questionable due to limited ICE personnel and inadequate detention facilities [06:17].
• Diplomatic Relations: Coordinating mass deportations would require intricate negotiations with countries like Mexico, complicating international relations [06:17].

Despite these challenges, Kurtzleben asserts, "You can bet he'll do something. This was central for him. It's just unclear what he'll be able to do" [06:09].

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Energy Policy: Reality vs. Rhetoric

Addressing Trump's promise to "drill, baby, drill," Kurtzleben explains that while the U.S. energy sector has seen unprecedented growth, much of it is already underway. Regulatory adjustments might allow for increased oil and gas permits, potentially lowering prices temporarily. However, global market dynamics limit the long-term impact of such policies [07:38].

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Reshaping the Defense and State Departments

The episode transitions to discussions with NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and diplomatic correspondent Michelle Kellerman about the anticipated changes within the Defense and State Departments under a second Trump administration.

State Department:

• Leadership Candidates: Potential Secretaries of State include Rick Grenell, Bill Hagerty, and Marco Rubio. Grenell, known for his caustic demeanor, could possibly serve as a National Security Adviser [08:48].
• Departmental Mood: There's considerable anxiety within the State Department. Drawing parallels to the first Trump term, expectations of rapid political appointees replacing existing staff create an atmosphere of uncertainty [14:00].

Pentagon:

• Leadership Candidates: Senator Tom Cotton and Congressman Mike Waltz emerge as frontrunners for top Pentagon positions. Both have military backgrounds and experience in Afghanistan, though Cotton's controversial stance on using the military domestically poses potential challenges [09:58][10:00].
• Operational Changes: Congressman Waltz emphasizes the need for a meritocratic approach within the Defense Department, critiquing perceived overemphasis on diversity [10:39].

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Foreign Policy: Navigating Ongoing Conflicts

Trump's approach to international conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, remains a focal point:

• Ukraine: Trump promises to swiftly end the war, but uncertainties linger regarding the feasibility of brokered peace given existing tensions with Russia [12:24].
• Middle East: Relations with Israel and issues in Lebanon are highlighted, with potential shifts in U.S. military aid and diplomatic strategies [12:24].

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Domestic Security and Military Involvement

A contentious aspect of Trump's platform involves leveraging the National Guard and active-duty military to enforce immigration policies, including deportations. While Trump asserts immediate action to remove undocumented migrants, analysts like Michelle Kellerman caution about the operational disruptions and potential resistance from military personnel [13:23][13:47].

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Departmental Morale and Future Outlook

The State Department's staff is apprehensive about the impending transition. Historical precedents from the first Trump term, such as the ousting of Rex Tillerson, have left lasting impressions on the department's morale. The new administration's intent to install political appointees swiftly suggests potential upheaval and restructuring [14:00][14:43].

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Conclusion

Mary Louise Kelly wraps up the episode by highlighting the critical changes and uncertainties that a second Trump term would introduce. From immigration reform and energy policies to significant shifts within key governmental departments, the episode provides listeners with a comprehensive overview of what to expect should Trump secure another victory.

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Notable Quotes:

• Donald Trump [01:21]: "I will govern by a simple motto, promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises."
• Daniel Kurtzleben [06:09]: "You can bet he'll do something. This was central for him. It's just unclear what he'll be able to do."
• Congressman Mike Waltz [10:39]: "We do need leadership. We need a culture change. We need to focus the Defense Department on being the meritocracy that it has always been."

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This episode of "Consider This" offers an essential exploration of the potential early actions and challenges of a second Trump administration, providing listeners with valuable insights into the implications for both domestic policy and international relations.

Transcript

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Hey, a quick word before the show. The 2024 presidential election is over. Maybe you're taking a break from election stuff for a while. Maybe you cannot stop scrolling. Either way, don't stress about where to go for reliable information. In the next few months and beyond across the NPR network, we will be working to examine the biggest stories and to fact check so you can keep a grip on what's happening. If that sounds valuable to you, please help make it possible. Go to donate.NPR.org to get started. If you're already a supporter, let me take this moment to say thank you. And if you're not, the Link again is donate.NPR.org thank you. And now to the show.

[Donald Trump]

Well, I want to thank you all very much.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Donald Trump took the stage in West Palm Beach, Florida, thanked his supporters and walked them through some of what he plans to do when he gets back to the White House.

[Donald Trump]

America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. We have taken back control of the Senate. Wow, that's good.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That mandate he referred to is part of what he'll lean on as he implements his vision for America.

[Donald Trump]

I will govern by a simple motto, promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Over his nearly two year campaign, Trump made a lot of promises. One of them an immigration crackdown.

[Donald Trump]

We want to have borders. We want to have security. We want to have things be good, safe.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

We want for a second Trump administration. Being safe is defined by mass deportations and closing the border.

[Donald Trump]

But we have the greatest people also. Maybe that's the most important thing.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Trump has already identified tech billionaire Elon Musk for a high profile role in government. Another name at the top of the list, the controversial Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

[Donald Trump]

And he's going to help make America healthy again. And now he's a great guy and he really means it. He wants to do some things and we're gonna let him go to it.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Consider this. In just over 70 days, Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, will become the 47th. And he'll begin implementing his vision of an all powerful chief executive. Coming up, we explore what the early days of a second Trump administration could look like. From npr, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

[Ira Glass]

This is Ira Glass of this American Life. Each week on our show, we choose a theme, tell different stories on that theme. All right, I'm just going to stop right there. You're listening to an NPR podcast. Chances are you know our show. So instead I'm going to tell you we've just been on a run of really good shows lately. Some big, epic, emotional stories and some weird, funny stuff, too. Download us this American Life.

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

This message comes from NPR sponsor Saatva. Founder and CEO Ron Rudsen shares the story of how he got started Creating.

[Ira Glass]

Saatva in 2007, 2008, I went out and I bought the most popular luxury mattresses. I tore them apart and I realized based on the raw materials, cost and the analysis that I had done that.

[Michelle Kellerman]

I was able to sell that level.

[Ira Glass]

Mattress, but with a very affordable price. To learn more, go to.

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

Joe Biden's on his way out. Donald Trump's on his way back. Want to know what's happening as the presidential transition is underway? The NPR Politics podcast has you covered with the latest news and analysis. Listen to the NPR Politics podcast.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

It's consider this from npr. Through the months and months of stump speeches Donald Trump has given in his quest to return to the White House, he's made a lot of promises, especially promises about what he will do on day one. Day one of Trump's second term is coming up quickly in a little more than two months. To hear more about what day one might look like and what he might do in the early days of his administration, I spoke to NPR political correspondent Daniel Kurtzleben. So day one, what's his plan?

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

Well, we don't have a specific plan plan, but like you alluded to there, we do what he has said will be his priorities based on what he would do on, quote, day one. This is a thing he said a lot in his campaign speeches on day one. I will do X. In fact, here he was this fall at a town hall in Flint, Michigan. You're going to hear Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders here asking Trump a question.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Tell us what you will do on day one to help protect our state.

[Donald Trump]

Okay, so we're going to be day one. We're doing two things, closing the border and drill, baby, drill. Two things we're going to get down.

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

And this was common for him. Border security and drilling came up over and over for him as day one priorities.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Yeah. And as I've listened to him say that over and over, I have wondered what that actually means. The first piece, closing the border, what does that actually look like?

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

You know, it's unclear what this means. As with many Trump policies, it's a simple slogan that gets applause, but it has few to no details attached to it. Now, I've asked the campaign what this would look like, but they did not explain. In response either. So it could be a few things. There's title 42, which is the shorthand for the policy by which he and later the Biden administration used to stop and deport migrants. But that was a public health measure and the COVID emergency is over. So it's not clear if or how Trump could use that again. He might also try to end the Biden policy of allowing people to make appointments for asylum using something called CBP1. Trump has railed against this, but also it's not clear that's what he means either by, quote, close the border. So that's something we're still unclear on.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

He has said over and over and seems to mean that he wants mass deportations. Yes, he's been made that promise was central on his campaign.

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

Yes, very central. He has said this is also something he would start immediately. And he has said he would use the Alien enemies Act of 1798 to do those deportations of undocumented people. But there could be some really big hurdles to that. One is legal. You will have groups like the ACLU come together to fight deportation, to say, for example, that it's unconstitutional. And even if Trump did have a legal way to do it, there are also logistical problems. There just aren't enough ICE personnel to deport millions upon millions of people. And even beyond that, you would need some place to hold all of those detainees at some point. There are diplomatic hurdles. You can't just put undocumented people on a plane and send them to Mexico City. You would need to work it out with the Mexican government and say, hey, we are sending X number of people to you. I could go on. There's economic issues. Even if he did do all of this, the economic fallout could be massive. Now, I say all of that. None of it is to say that deportations won't happen. I'm not saying that at all. This has, as you pointed out, been the central promise of his campaign. Really what I'm saying here is that those deportations might not be as rapid, as easy or as big as he and his supporters hope. But you can bet he'll do something. This was central for him. It's just unclear what he'll be able to do.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Circle back, Daniel, to the other thing we just heard him say he would do on day one. Drill, baby, drill. What's he going to be able to do there?

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

Well, all the time in his stump speech, he said he would, quote, unleash U.S. energy. But the thing is, it's been unleashed. Oil production is at an all time high in the U.S. now, the administration can issue more oil and gas permits, but it doesn't have power over private industry. It doesn't have power over global markets. So yeah, Trump can make it easier to drill. That might bring prices down in the short term, but that doesn't mean anything for what's going to happen in the long term.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That was NPR's Daniel Kurtzleben on how Trump might approach immigration and energy in a second term. The Trump transition team is also focused on how they'll handle the Defense Department and the State Department. To learn more about that, how they may be reshaped when Trump takes office, I spoke with NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and NPR diplomatic correspondent Michelle Kellerman. What are you hearing about what may be in store for State?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, what we know so far is that Trump's former point person on Iran, Brian Hook, is going to lead the transition team over here in the office, is ready for his team. As for who is going to be secretary of state, there are kind of a few names in the mix. One is Rick Grenell. He was Trump's ambassador to Germany and then acting director of National Intellig Intelligence. He's been a fixture on the campaign trail, very close to the Trump family and has some business deals in the Balkans, for instance, with Trump's son in law, Jared Kushner. He's known to be quite caustic Grinnell and he dresses down his critics, especially in the media. Now, Trump could decide to keep him closer to him in the White House as national security adviser, which is a job that doesn't need Senate confirmation. But with the Senate held by Republicans, getting Grinnell confirmed probably won't be a problem. But there are some senators who do want the job. There's Bill Haggerty of Tennessee. He's a former businessman who was Trump's ambassador to Japan. So he knows the State Department well. And there's Marco Rubio of Florida who appears to be in the running and I've seen him a lot on Fox News. That's kind of the way that folks auditioned for Trump in the past.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Tom Bowman, what about at the Pentagon?

[Michelle Kellerman]

Well, one of the big names we're hearing, Mary Louise, is Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas. He's a former army officer with combat time in Iraq and Afghanistan, well respected. He's advocated, however, using the military in a support role against protesters in American cities is somewhat controversial. Now Axios is reporting Cotton would prefer to stay in the Senate where Republicans have taken control and try for a leadership post. Now, if not Cotton, another Member of Congress for the Pentagon chief could be Congressman Mike Waltz of Florida, who also served multiple tours in Afghanistan as a Green Beret, worked for Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates at the Pentagon as well.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Right. And Waltz actually was on NPR this morning. They talked to him on Morning Edition. I want to play a little bit of what he said because he weighed in on Pentagon spending and personnel.

[Ira Glass]

There is a whole slew of new technologies from Silicon Valley and elsewhere that are really chomping at the bit to help with our defense and security issues, and they can't break through the bureaucracy. So I think we do need leadership. We need a culture change. We need to focus the Defense Department on being the meritocracy that it has always been.

[Michelle Kellerman]

Well, you know, he raises a good point, Mary Louise, on high tech gear. I was at an army training exercise in Louisiana recently in this brigade of the 101st was using small drones, electronic decoys, cyber capabilities, and army officials want to quickly get this gear into the hands of soldiers. The Pentagon purchasing rules, however, just take too long.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I heard something else in that tape that I want you to go back to. When he talked about focusing the Defense Department on being a meritocracy, what's he getting at?

[Michelle Kellerman]

Yeah, that was interesting. The military has always prided itself on being a meritocracy, but there have been complaints from the Trump camp that the Pentagon is too focused on diversity, too woke, as they say. So it seems Congressman Walz is picking up on that by mentioning meritocracy. So what does that mean in practical terms? Do you remove certain high level military officers and replace them? Last time, in the waning days of the first Trump administration, they tried to remove certain officers and replace them with, quote, their officers, but time ran out.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Okay, Michelle, back to you. The incoming Trump administration obviously is going to be walking right into two major wars underway. Ukraine, the Middle east, at the State Department, what plans are being laid for how those conflicts will be handled?

[Tom Bowman]

Yeah, I mean, Ukraine is the big concern for the Biden team. They're trying to get as much aid out the door as possible before they leave office and get the Europeans to take more of a lead. Trump has said he would end the war quickly, but it's not clear, you know, what kind of deal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can take at the moment, since Russian President Vladimir Putin will feel emboldened by Trump's victory. So there's just a lot of nervousness around Ukraine right now. In the Middle east, the Biden administration has just seen its influence kind of evaporate overnight. They had been pushing the Israelis to get more aid into Gaza, even holding out the possibility of withholding US Military aid. They're also pushing for a ceasefire in Lebanon. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might, you know, just want to wait them out at this point.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

What about closer to home? Because another thing Trump has talked about during the campaign is using the National Guard, using active duty military to round up and deport undocumented immigrants. Can he do that? What do we know?

[Michelle Kellerman]

Well, all we know is what Trump has said. He says on day one, he will begin removing millions of undocumented migrants. He's talked about using the National Guard for such an effort. May be active duty military. People I talk with say the military could be used in a support role to help local authorities. Now, this could be disruptive for the military as far as planning costs. Some troops may decide. Mary Louise, not to take part.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Michelle, last word to you. I always hesitate to ask about the mood of a whole department because it's big and I'm sure there are a lot of competing views. But what is the mood of the State Department? How are the rank and file reacting to this week's news?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, I mean, I think there's a lot of nervousness. The last time the Trump administration came to office, Trump named a former Exxon CEO, Rex Tillerson, a secretary of state, and it was pretty chaotic. The department was hollowed out. Tillerson himself was pushed out after a year for not being loyal enough. This time around, the Trump team seems to be more ready. I mean, the chapter on the State Department in Project 2025 was written by a former Trump appointee who said that the State Department has too many people who are left wing and who disagree with the conservative president's policy. So the goal is to get as many political appointees in office on day one. So there's just a feeling that a lot of people are going to be pushed out very quickly.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That was NPR's Michelle Kellerman and Tom Bowman. This episode was produced by Leena Muhammad. It was edited by Courtney Dorning, Megan Pratts, Andrew Sussman and John Ketchup. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's consider this from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

Okay, so does this sound like you? You love NPR's podcasts. You wish you could get more of all your favorite shows and you want to support NPR's mission to create a more informed public. If all that sounds appealing, then it is time to sign up for the NPR Learn more at plus.npr.org the code switch team spent Election Day talking to folks about how the outcome might impact them. It's a time capsule of people's hopes and fears before they knew the results. One way or another, there's a change coming.

[Michelle Kellerman]

I wanted to vote for Trump, but.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I voted for her.

[Ira Glass]

Gays for Trump.

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

I cried this morning. I've been crying on enough.

[Ira Glass]

I'm terrified.

[Daniel Kurtzleben]

Listen to Code Switch, the podcast about race and identity from npr. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon prime members can listen to Consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this [e-mail] that's plus.NPR.org.