Farming is uncertain — a trade war makes it more so

Summary

Consider This from NPR: Farming is Uncertain — A Trade War Makes It More So
Release Date: March 20, 2025

---

Introduction: The Climate of Uncertainty in Agriculture

In the latest episode of NPR's Consider This, host Juana Summers delves into the increasing uncertainties faced by farmers amidst ongoing trade wars and fluctuating governmental support. The episode, titled "Farming is Uncertain — A Trade War Makes It More So," explores how these factors are reshaping the agricultural landscape, impacting crop prices, costs of supplies, and the overall stability of farming businesses.

---

The Impact of Trade Wars and Tariffs on Farmers

Justin Sherlock, a soybean farmer and president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, epitomizes the struggles faced by farmers in uncertain times. As reported by colleague Kirk Sigler, Sherlock's concerns are amplified by President Trump's tariffs on foreign imports, which have prompted retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural exports. Specifically, Canadian fertilizer imports have become more expensive, and the looming threat of millions of tons of soybeans being unsold due to restricted access to the Chinese market adds to the anxiety.

Notable Quote:

"Farmers do not like uncertainty. They want to know the prices their crops would fetch before they plant them." – Juana Summers [00:01]

Ari Shapiro further explains the immediate effects of these tariffs:

"The tariffs will go on agricultural product coming into America and our farmers starting on April 2, it may be a little bit of an adjustment period." [00:57]

Despite assurances from President Trump urging farmers to stay resilient, the practical impact remains severe:

"Under the first Trump administration's trade war, the federal government paid out billions to keep farmers afloat, but their businesses are still recovering." [01:26]

---

Government Support and the Role of the USDA

The episode shifts focus to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and its critical role in supporting farmers. Ann Veneman, former Secretary of Agriculture under President George W. Bush, provides insights into how current policies are affecting agricultural support systems.

Notable Quote:

"Agriculture is an uncertain business. And I think uncertainty is what farmers face every day." – Ann Veneman [03:38]

Shapiro elaborates on USDA's diverse functions:

"About 14% of USDA's budget goes directly to farm conservation and commodity programs directly supporting farmers, much of it through subsidized crop insurance to ensure against losses." [04:32]

However, budget reallocations and potential cuts to programs like SNAP (food stamps) are creating additional pressures:

"There is discussion about whether or not the SNAP program... will be cut." [05:35]

Veneman highlights the interconnectedness of these programs:

"Does that have trickle down impacts or trickle up impacts on the farmers who produce the foods that become part of that food assistance program?" [05:35]

The uncertainty surrounding USDA grants further complicates farmers' ability to plan and invest:

"If the money is not going to come from the federal government, it puts them in a very precarious position." – Ari Shapiro [07:06]

---

Farmers’ Perspectives: Navigating the Turbulent Landscape

The episode features personal stories from farmers like Zarlin Woodard, a fourth-generation farmer from Tunica, Mississippi. Zarlin illustrates the direct impact of tariffs on daily farming operations, particularly the rising costs of essential inputs like fertilizer.

Notable Quote:

"A lot of our fertilizer comes from Canada and with tariffs that's hitting Canada now, that's going to really drive up the price of fertilizer, which ultimately affects your overall profit margin." – Zarlin Woodard [09:48]

Zarlin’s strategic shift from rice to soybeans in response to turbulent markets underscores the difficult decisions farmers must make:

"Soybean prices are low and they're unstable." [10:22]

The pressure to maintain profitability amidst global market fluctuations is palpable:

"If you can't make a profit, you know there's no point in continuing." – Ari Shapiro [10:54]

---

Economic Analysis: Insights from the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book

Economists Robert Smith and Waylon Wong from NPR's The Indicator from Planet Money provide an analysis of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, highlighting the pervasive sense of uncertainty among farmers.

Notable Quote:

"The word uncertainty showed up 45 times in the Beige Book. That's a new record and more than twice what it's been recently." – Robert Smith [08:21]

Key findings include:

• Tariffs as a Major Disruption: Tariffs have been cited 49 times, causing significant market instability.
• Negative Market Conditions: The St. Louis Fed reports that the current agriculture market is worse than the previous year, with policy uncertainty and reduced safety nets driving some farmers out of business.
• Crop Profitability Concerns: A notable number of farmers report expectations of no profits in the 2025 crop year.

---

Conclusions: The Future of Farming Amid Uncertainty

The episode concludes by reinforcing the precarious position of farmers who must navigate a maze of economic policies, international trade tensions, and fluctuating market demands. The interplay between government support and market forces remains a critical determinant of the sustainability of farming operations.

Final Thoughts:

"When you have a contract, it should be honored." – Ann Veneman [06:37]

As farmers like Zarlin Woodard watch international news and market prices closely, the future of agriculture in the U.S. remains uncertain, shaped by both domestic policies and global economic shifts.

---

Production Credits

This episode was produced by Michelle Aslam, Connor Donovan, and Mia Venkat. Editing was handled by Patrick Jaron Watananan and Nadia Lanci, with additional support from NPR's Kirk Sigler and Eric Whitney. The executive producer for this episode is Sami Yenigun.

---

Supporting Organizations

Consider This is supported by sponsors such as Saatva and Carvana. Listeners can access sponsor-free versions of the podcast through Amazon Music or support NPR directly via plus.NPR.org.

---

For more insights and updates on how trade policies are affecting various sectors, tune into NPR's Consider This and stay informed on the issues that shape our world.

Transcript

[Juana Summers]

Farmers do not like uncertainty. They want to know the prices their crops would fetch before they plant them. And they want to know how much it'll cost to buy seeds and fertilizer and farm equipment. And they want to know they won't be hit by drought or bird flu. But right now, things are not certain in farm country. Things are changing hour by hour. How do you operate a business that way? Justin Sherlock is a farmer, also president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association. As our colleague Kirk Sigler reported from North Dakota, his uncertainty is compounded by tariffs and when or if they take hold. President Trump's tariffs and tariff threats on foreign imports have led to other countries retaliating with tariffs on American agricultural exports. For a soybean farmer, that would make Canadian fertilizer more expensive to import and would result in millions of tons of soybeans not being sold and exported to China.

[Ari Shapiro]

The tariffs will go on agricultural product coming into America and our farmers starting on April 2, it may be a little bit of an adjustment period.

[Juana Summers]

In his speech to Congress, President Trump asked farmers to bear with him. His hope is that the American economy eventually adapts to unlock a bigger domestic market for farmers.

[Ari Shapiro]

So to our farmers, have a lot of fun. I love you, too. I love you, too. It's all going to happen.

[Juana Summers]

Under the first Trump administration's trade war, the federal government paid out billions to keep farmers afloat, but their businesses are still recovering. And Justin Sherlock has crops to plant this spring. You can't take that to the banker and say, well, our political leadership must have a plan, so give me a loan. In North Dakota, where 1 in 5 jobs are tied to agriculture, more than 67% of the electorate voted for Trump. But consider this. So far, the Trump administration's agriculture policy and its signature economic policy have resulted in a condition that farmers try to avoid uncertainty. From npr, I'm Juana Summers.

[Ann Veneman]

This message comes from NPR sponsor Saatva founder and CEO Ron Rudson shares why Saatva sales associates are focused on finding the perfect mattress for their customers.

[Ari Shapiro]

At Saatva, we have a 365 day home trial. Why would we want to rush you or try to push you into something that's not right for you?

[Juana Summers]

We want to make sure that we.

[Ari Shapiro]

Guide you to the right mattress is always available to be helpful to make sure you make the right choice.

[Ann Veneman]

To learn more, go to saatva.com NPR this message comes from Carvana. Sell your car the convenient way, Enter your license plate or vin, answer a few questions and get A real offer in seconds. Go to Carvana.com today.

[Juana Summers]

It'S Consider this from NPR. Farmers already worry about crop prices, the cost of farm supplies and extreme weather. Now the federal government is another big question mark. President Trump's trade war will shape where farmers can sell their crops. And the U.S. department of Agriculture has paused reimbursements, cut programs, and attempted to lay off staff. We wanted to know more about the relationship between farmers and the federal government. So this week we called on Ann Veneman. She was President George W. Bush's Secretary of Agriculture. My co host, Ari Shapiro takes it from here.

[Ann Veneman]

How are Trump's tariffs likely to affect farmers?

[Ari Shapiro]

Well, as you say, agriculture is an uncertain business. And I think uncertainty is what farmers face every day. But when you add on the disruption markets due to trade, these tariffs would fall most heavily on the US Agriculture industry. So, for example, China has been a major export market for US agricultural products. 1/4 of the US crop of soybeans has been exported to China. They may lose that market if the tariffs go back on soybeans like they did in 2018.

[Ann Veneman]

Let's shift to the support that USDA, the US Department of Agriculture, provides to farmers. The majority of USDA spending goes to nutrition assistance programs like SNAP benefits, also known as food stamps. If that shrinks, what does that mean for farmers in the U.S. certainly, farmers.

[Ari Shapiro]

Are supported in many ways. The USDA is one of the most diverse and largest departments in government government. So about 14% of USDA's budget goes directly to farm conservation and commodity programs directly supporting farmers, much of it through subsidized crop insurance to ensure against losses. But the USDA has so much more. For example, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Program has experts working to protect agriculture from pests and diseases, particularly these days, bird flu. You know, we have the Food Safety Inspection service in the U.S. department of Agriculture. It's responsible for the safety of the meat and poultry. And then of course, you talk about the nutrition programs. They account for about 70% of the USDA budget. Yeah, there is discussion about whether or not the SNAP program, the former food stamp program, will be cut. But there's also discussion about whether or not there may be some limitations on what you could buy.

[Ann Veneman]

I think a lot of the debate will probably be around cutting benefits to people in need. But does that have trickle down impacts or trickle up impacts on the farmers who produce the foods that become part of that food assistance program?

[Ari Shapiro]

Well, potentially there is one program, it's about a billion dollar program that the department has already said it's going to cut. It buys produce locally produced by farmers in the area for food banks and school lunch. That program is already being cut and farmers that are depending on that program are already feeling the effects of that.

[Ann Veneman]

The government has frozen or ended a lot of grants to farmers. Here's what a dairyman named Travis Forbes told Wisconsin Public Radio after the federal government paused two five figure grants he had for a new industrial freezer and solar panels.

[Ari Shapiro]

We have the contract signed. Did I think that perhaps in the future these grants wouldn't be available? Absolutely, because that happens with different leaders in place. But did I in a while of the streams think that they wouldn't honor their word as our federal government? Absolutely not.

[Ann Veneman]

Secretary Veneman. Ultimately at least one of his grants went through. But big picture, what does the uncertainty around this mean for farmers?

[Ari Shapiro]

Well, it puts them in a very difficult position. They've already started the work, they've already spent their part of the cost share. And if the money is not going to come from the federal government, it puts them in a very precarious position. They may then come under pressure from their banks because they can't pay back their loans. And I think when you have a contract, it should be honored.

[Ann Veneman]

When you were in office in the early 2000s as Agriculture Secretary, what did you hear most from farmers? What did they want the federal government to do more or less of?

[Ari Shapiro]

Well, farmers always want support. But I will say that farmers really want markets opened up around the world. When you look at what's happening today when we're shutting off markets, that is exactly the opposite of what farmers wanted. When I was at usda.

[Juana Summers]

That'S Anne Veneman, who was secretary of agriculture under President George W. Bush. Speaking with our co host Ari Shapiro, we heard Secretary Veneman describe farming as an uncertain business. Uncertainty is also on the minds of economists at the Federal Reserve System, the country's central bank. The 12 regional banks that make up the Fed regularly study their local economies very much, including agricultural industries. And they publish their findings in a document called the Beige Book. And throughout the latest edition, there's that word again. Uncertainty. Robert Smith and Waylon Wong of NPR's the Indicator from Planet Money have our Beige Book report.

[Robert Smith]

This time in the Beige Book, one big thing stood out to Robert and me. The word uncertainty. That word showed up 45 times in the Beige Book. That's a new record and more than twice what it's been recently.

[Waylon Wong]

Part of that is tariffs. Tariffs were mentioned 49 times in the Beige Book by the way the president has been slapping tariffs on and then unslapping those same tariffs and then delaying the slap and then doing that thing where you sort of fake a slap and then point and laugh and that.

[Robert Smith]

Is creating a lot of feelings. As detailed in the beige book, the St. Louis Fed reported about how this uncertainty is affecting agriculture. Farming is an industry where you have to start right now in the spring, even though the future is scary and unknown. Here is what the St. Louis Fed wrote in the Beige book.

[Waylon Wong]

Quote. A contact in Memphis noted that the current agriculture market was in a worse spot than the same time last year. Contacts noted that tariffs, policy uncertainty and a lack of clarity regarding farm bill safety nets were negatively impacting the sector. Some farmers also reported having no expectation of profits in the 2025 crop year and others have gone out of business.

[Robert Smith]

No profits. I know we wanted to hear how farmers are personally navigating this difficult environment.

[Ari Shapiro]

My name is Zarlin Woodard. I'm a fourth generation farmer in Tunica, Mississippi. My farm is Urban Hills Farms.

[Waylon Wong]

Zarlin told us that a lot of the farms do a winter wheat that they sell around the world through usaid, the same USAID that's been essentially cut by the Trump administration. So there's a lot of extra grain.

[Robert Smith]

Sitting around and looking forward to this season. Zarlin is worried about the rising cost of fertilizer.

[Ari Shapiro]

A lot of our fertilizer comes from Canada and with tariffs that's hitting Canada now, that's going to really drive up the price of fertilizer, which ultimately affects your overall profit margin.

[Waylon Wong]

In fact, Zarlan is changing his plans right now based on the tariffs. Rice, the crop. Rice apparently takes a lot of fertilizer to grow. So he's switching to soybeans, which requires a lot less fertilizer. But soybean prices are low and they're unstable.

[Robert Smith]

If Brazil has a big crop, then worldwide prices will drop. And China has just put a 10% tariff on US soybeans in retaliation for are tariffs. Zarlin spends a lot of his time on his phone watching international news and soybean prices.

[Ari Shapiro]

It'll get to some point to where you have to make that decision, to where are you going to continue the farm? Because if you can't make a profit, you know there's no point in continuing.

[Waylon Wong]

So the farm was started by your grandfather. What would he say now?

[Ari Shapiro]

I don't know what his ideas would be right now.

[Waylon Wong]

You know, it's tough, but Zarlon isn't dwelling on it. When we left him, he was staring at soy prices on his phone again, trying to figure out if he should lock in a price now or gamble on it going up later.

[Robert Smith]

Robert Smith, Waylon Wong, NPR News.

[Juana Summers]

This episode was produced by Michelle Aslam, Connor Donovan and Mia Venkat. It was edited by Patrick Jaron Watananan and Nadia Lanci, with help from NPR's Kirk Sigler and Eric Whitney. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Juana Summers. Neuroscientist Ethan Cross says you may think it's healthy to vent about what's bothering you, but the problem is you often leave that conversation feeling really good about the person you just communicated with. But all the negative feelings are still there. Sometimes they're even more activated tools for managing our emotions. That's on the TED Radio Hour podcast from npr.

[Ari Shapiro]

Oh, hey there.

[Juana Summers]

I'm Brittany Luce.

[Ari Shapiro]

And I don't know, maybe this is.

[Juana Summers]

A little out of pocket to say, but I think you should listen to my podcast. It's called It's Been a Minute, and I love it. And I think you will, too. Over the past couple months, over 100,000 new listeners started tuning in. Find out why. Listen to the It's Been a Minute podcast from NPR today. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon prime members can listen to Consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music.

[Ari Shapiro]

Or you can also support NPR's vital.

[Juana Summers]

Journalism and get consider this [e-mail] that's plus.NPR.org.