Consider This from NPR: Farming is Uncertain — A Trade War Makes It More So
Release Date: March 20, 2025
Introduction: The Climate of Uncertainty in Agriculture
In the latest episode of NPR's Consider This, host Juana Summers delves into the increasing uncertainties faced by farmers amidst ongoing trade wars and fluctuating governmental support. The episode, titled "Farming is Uncertain — A Trade War Makes It More So," explores how these factors are reshaping the agricultural landscape, impacting crop prices, costs of supplies, and the overall stability of farming businesses.
The Impact of Trade Wars and Tariffs on Farmers
Justin Sherlock, a soybean farmer and president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, epitomizes the struggles faced by farmers in uncertain times. As reported by colleague Kirk Sigler, Sherlock's concerns are amplified by President Trump's tariffs on foreign imports, which have prompted retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural exports. Specifically, Canadian fertilizer imports have become more expensive, and the looming threat of millions of tons of soybeans being unsold due to restricted access to the Chinese market adds to the anxiety.
Notable Quote:
"Farmers do not like uncertainty. They want to know the prices their crops would fetch before they plant them." – Juana Summers [00:01]
Ari Shapiro further explains the immediate effects of these tariffs:
"The tariffs will go on agricultural product coming into America and our farmers starting on April 2, it may be a little bit of an adjustment period." [00:57]
Despite assurances from President Trump urging farmers to stay resilient, the practical impact remains severe:
"Under the first Trump administration's trade war, the federal government paid out billions to keep farmers afloat, but their businesses are still recovering." [01:26]
Government Support and the Role of the USDA
The episode shifts focus to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and its critical role in supporting farmers. Ann Veneman, former Secretary of Agriculture under President George W. Bush, provides insights into how current policies are affecting agricultural support systems.
Notable Quote:
"Agriculture is an uncertain business. And I think uncertainty is what farmers face every day." – Ann Veneman [03:38]
Shapiro elaborates on USDA's diverse functions:
"About 14% of USDA's budget goes directly to farm conservation and commodity programs directly supporting farmers, much of it through subsidized crop insurance to ensure against losses." [04:32]
However, budget reallocations and potential cuts to programs like SNAP (food stamps) are creating additional pressures:
"There is discussion about whether or not the SNAP program... will be cut." [05:35]
Veneman highlights the interconnectedness of these programs:
"Does that have trickle down impacts or trickle up impacts on the farmers who produce the foods that become part of that food assistance program?" [05:35]
The uncertainty surrounding USDA grants further complicates farmers' ability to plan and invest:
"If the money is not going to come from the federal government, it puts them in a very precarious position." – Ari Shapiro [07:06]
Farmers’ Perspectives: Navigating the Turbulent Landscape
The episode features personal stories from farmers like Zarlin Woodard, a fourth-generation farmer from Tunica, Mississippi. Zarlin illustrates the direct impact of tariffs on daily farming operations, particularly the rising costs of essential inputs like fertilizer.
Notable Quote:
"A lot of our fertilizer comes from Canada and with tariffs that's hitting Canada now, that's going to really drive up the price of fertilizer, which ultimately affects your overall profit margin." – Zarlin Woodard [09:48]
Zarlin’s strategic shift from rice to soybeans in response to turbulent markets underscores the difficult decisions farmers must make:
"Soybean prices are low and they're unstable." [10:22]
The pressure to maintain profitability amidst global market fluctuations is palpable:
"If you can't make a profit, you know there's no point in continuing." – Ari Shapiro [10:54]
Economic Analysis: Insights from the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book
Economists Robert Smith and Waylon Wong from NPR's The Indicator from Planet Money provide an analysis of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, highlighting the pervasive sense of uncertainty among farmers.
Notable Quote:
"The word uncertainty showed up 45 times in the Beige Book. That's a new record and more than twice what it's been recently." – Robert Smith [08:21]
Key findings include:
- Tariffs as a Major Disruption: Tariffs have been cited 49 times, causing significant market instability.
- Negative Market Conditions: The St. Louis Fed reports that the current agriculture market is worse than the previous year, with policy uncertainty and reduced safety nets driving some farmers out of business.
- Crop Profitability Concerns: A notable number of farmers report expectations of no profits in the 2025 crop year.
Conclusions: The Future of Farming Amid Uncertainty
The episode concludes by reinforcing the precarious position of farmers who must navigate a maze of economic policies, international trade tensions, and fluctuating market demands. The interplay between government support and market forces remains a critical determinant of the sustainability of farming operations.
Final Thoughts:
"When you have a contract, it should be honored." – Ann Veneman [06:37]
As farmers like Zarlin Woodard watch international news and market prices closely, the future of agriculture in the U.S. remains uncertain, shaped by both domestic policies and global economic shifts.
Production Credits
This episode was produced by Michelle Aslam, Connor Donovan, and Mia Venkat. Editing was handled by Patrick Jaron Watananan and Nadia Lanci, with additional support from NPR's Kirk Sigler and Eric Whitney. The executive producer for this episode is Sami Yenigun.
Supporting Organizations
Consider This is supported by sponsors such as Saatva and Carvana. Listeners can access sponsor-free versions of the podcast through Amazon Music or support NPR directly via plus.NPR.org.
For more insights and updates on how trade policies are affecting various sectors, tune into NPR's Consider This and stay informed on the issues that shape our world.