Has the U.S. lost the war in Iran?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "Has the U.S. Lost the War in Iran?"

Podcast: Consider This from NPR
Date: May 24, 2026
Host: Adrian Florido
Guest: Robert Kagan (Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution)
Main Theme: Assessing the results and implications of the US-Israel war against Iran after three months of conflict and a looming ceasefire deal.

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the outcome of the US and Israel's military campaign against Iran—an operation initiated by President Trump with sweeping objectives: stopping Iran’s nuclear capabilities, regime change, and regaining control of the Strait of Hormuz. As a potential peace deal nears, with little evidence of Iranian concessions, guest Robert Kagan argues that the US is emerging from this conflict weakened and that Iran is poised to dominate the region. The conversation examines what was gained or lost in the war and the wider consequences for US power and alliances.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Initiation & Objectives of the War

• [00:10] President Trump’s War Announcement: Declared major combat operations, aiming to “eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”
  • Quote (Trump, 00:10): “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people.”
• Widespread destruction, heavy casualties, regional instability, and global energy market disruption followed.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed the uncompromising US stance on Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
  • Quote (Rubio, 01:06): “Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon, certainly not as long as Donald Trump is president of the United States.”

2. Iran’s Position & Negotiations

• [01:27] Jane Araf (NPR): Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, refuses to export highly enriched uranium, and considers the issue one of sovereignty.
• War aims have shifted: regime change, preventing nuclear arms, reopening the Strait of Hormuz—but none achieved (Robert Kagan’s analysis).

3. Strategic Outcomes—Loss for the US?

• [02:12] Kagan’s Assessment: US failed to achieve war objectives; Iran remains defiant, suffered destruction but made no substantive concessions.
  • Quote (Kagan, 02:12): “It’s pretty much a total victory for Iran and a total defeat for the United States.”
  • [05:25] Kagan on the ceasefire: Iran gave up nothing; will end with control of the Strait of Hormuz—shifting regional power.

4. The Strait of Hormuz: A Strategic Blow

• [05:25] Kagan: Iran’s control ensures leverage over global energy supply—“a major blow to the United States position in the region, and... Israel’s security.”

5. The Nuclear Program: No Progress

• White House cited the prevention of an Iranian nuclear weapon as justification for war; outcome appears to be no meaningful change.
  • [06:37] Kagan: “Nothing. [The US is] left with nothing because the leaders in Iran have been trying to see whether Trump would actually follow through…he’s actually done nothing…for him to now agree to a 60 day ceasefire is effectively to be walking away. And the Iranians can see that, and that’s why they haven’t made any concessions.”

6. Domestic Political Response

• [07:11] Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) Critiques Deal: US now seems poised to accept Iran retaining nuclear material, undermining initial promises.
  • Quote (Tillis as played on CNN, 07:11): “Now we’re talking about a posture where we may accept the nuclear material remaining in Iran. How does that make sense at all?”

7. Comparison to the Obama-era Nuclear Deal

• Kagan suggests the upcoming deal will be “the same or worse” than the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, largely because Trump seeks a quick exit.
  • [07:55] Kagan: “If they got agreement from Iran to sort of hand out all of its enriched uranium...that would be a victory. But that is not what we’re going to get.”

8. Implications for Regional and Global Power

• [08:30] Kagan: Victory gives Iran “unbelievable power,” not just locally but globally, especially with the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Impact: Iran can “call the shots on a lot of things that goes on in the Middle East, including Israeli behavior.”
• [09:15] US Power in Global Context: Gulf states, Japan, South Korea no longer trust US guarantees. Allies are seeking new arrangements, doubt US protection.

9. The Accelerating "Post-American World"

• [09:57] Host quotes Kagan’s essay: “The global adjustment to a post American world is accelerating. America’s once dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties.”
• [10:15] Kagan links this conflict to broader US withdrawal: US abandonment of allies in Europe and Asia is encouraging partners to become more self-reliant and less dependent on Washington.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• President Trump, [00:10]: “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people.”
• Marco Rubio, [01:06]: “Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon, certainly not as long as Donald Trump is president of the United States.”
• Robert Kagan, [02:12]: “Yes. The Trump administration took its shot...It’s pretty much a total victory for Iran and a total defeat for the United States.”
• Kagan, [05:25]: “Most importantly...Iran is going to end this war in control of the Strait of Hormuz...It’ll be under new management…That is a major shift in power in the region.”
• Sen. Thom Tillis (via CNN), [07:11]: “Now we’re talking about a posture where we may accept the nuclear material remaining in Iran. How does that make sense at all?”
• Kagan, [07:55]: "If they got agreement ... to hand out all its enriched uranium and promise not to enrich any further... that would be a victory. But that is not what we're going to get."
• Kagan, [09:15]: “Gulf states are now moving toward working out their own agreement with Iran. They don’t feel that they can rely on the United States anymore.”
• Kagan, [10:15]: “The loss in the Iran conflict is only coming on top of much larger changes...The fundamental abandonment of our allies...has significantly diminished American influence in the international system.”

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:00–01:27: War’s launch, Trump and Rubio’s objectives, Iran’s response
• 01:51–02:38: Objectives not met; has the US lost the war? Initial Kagan assessment
• 04:33–06:16: Status update; US position post-war; Iran’s gains in Hormuz
• 06:16–07:03: Dealing with Iran’s nuclear program and US bargaining position
• 07:11–07:55: Domestic political critiques and deal comparisons
• 08:22–09:08: Implications for Iran and Israel
• 09:15–10:15: US power, global ramifications, and the “post-American world”
• 10:52–11:01: Wrap-up, final thoughts from Kagan

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a sobering analysis of the US-Iran conflict’s outcome. Despite initial ambitions, the Trump administration appears poised to settle with few (if any) concessions from Tehran. Iran emerges regionally empowered, in control of the Strait of Hormuz, and largely unscathed on its nuclear stance. According to Kagan, this is a watershed defeat for US global influence, marking an accelerating decline in American ability to shape international affairs—particularly among traditional allies and in future conflict scenarios.

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Transcript

[Adrian Florido]

It's consider this where every day we go deep on one big news story. When the US Israel war against Iran began, President Trump addressed the nation from Mar a Lago.

[Donald Trump]

A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian radio regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people.

[Adrian Florido]

The US And Israel conducted a wide scale military operation, killing most of Iran's most senior military and political leaders. In the three months since, the war has killed thousands of people, disrupted global energy markets, and sent the entire region into a wider conflict. Now the US And Iran are signaling that they are close to reaching an agreement that would potentially end the conflict. During a visit to India Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US has been uncompromising on at least one goal.

[Marco Rubio]

The ultimate goal is that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon. The president has been clear about that. They will never possess a nuclear weapon, certainly not as long as Donald Trump is president of the United States.

[Adrian Florido]

But progress on that key issue as part of the deal remains very unclear. And Iran seems equally uncompromising. As NPR's Jane Araf explains.

[Jane Araf]

Iran has repeatedly said it's not building a nuclear weapon, and recently it's been hardening its position on demands to send out highly enriched uranium. It says its program is for peaceful purposes. And Iranian leaders see the enriched uranium issue as a sovereignty issue. And they have said repeatedly they won't back down on that.

[Adrian Florido]

Throughout the war, the U.S. s main objectives have fluctuated from regime change to stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon to reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz. All objectives that, according to Robert Kagan, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, the US has not achieved. Has the US Lost this war?

[Robert Kagan]

Yes. The Trump administration took its shot. It bombed Iran for 37 days. Iran was unbowed by that, despite the terrible destruction and the cost to its economy. And it has effectively made no concessions. And it's pretty clear by putting in a ceasefire length of 60 days that what Trump really intends to do is walk away and hope that the American people don't notice that he's suffered a major strategic defeat for the United States.

[Adrian Florido]

Consider this, the status quo from before the war has changed, but maybe not in America's favor. If we are nearing the end point, what did the U.S. win or lose in the conflict? From NPR, Adrian. I'm Adrian Florido.

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[Adrian Florido]

It's Consider this from NPR after nearly a three month deadly conflict between the US And Iran, officials in both countries are saying that they may have a path to peace, but the major objectives of the war haven't moved in the direction President Trump was targeting the state of Iran's nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and more broadly, what the new status quo in the Middle east will look like. Robert Kagan is a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution, and in his view, the US Is coming away from this war weaker than it was when it started.

[Robert Kagan]

I think the administration is going to work very hard now and in the course of the next few days to try to present this as a deal that was successful for Donald Trump. But I think as far as is clear right now, it's pretty much a total victory for Iran and a total defeat for the United States.

[Interviewer/Host]

Why is that clear to you?

[Robert Kagan]

Well, because first of all, Iran has offered nothing in return for a ceasefire, at least according to what we've heard. They've agreed to talk about their nuclear program, which of course is what we've been talking about all this time, but have made no concessions about what they intend to do in a final way. And most importantly, and I think this is what listeners need to focus on, Iran is going to end this war in control of the Strait of Hormuz. There's a lot of talk about, quote, unquote, reopening the Strait, but it will reopen under Iranian control. It'll be under new management, which means that Iran is going to have the capacity to control who gets in, who gets out, when and for how much money. That is a major shift in power in the region. It's a major blow to the United States position in the region, and it's also a major blow to Israel's security going forward.

[Interviewer/Host]

I want to stick with the issue of Iran's nuclear program for just a moment. White House officials have said many times that they started this war to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Again, we don't know what's in this potential deal, but if this deal does not include an ironclad commitment to pause uranium enrichment by Iran, what is the US Left with?

[Robert Kagan]

Nothing. They're left with nothing because the leaders in Iran have been trying to see whether Trump would actually follow through on any of his military threats. And this has been going on now for two months. Trump is continually threatening to wipe out their civilization or take out all their energy, et cetera, and he's actually done nothing. And for him to now agree to a 60 day ceasefire is effectively to be walking away. And the Iranians can see that, and that's why they haven't made any concessions.

[Adrian Florido]

There are Senate Republicans who are already

[Interviewer/Host]

speaking out about this possible agreement with Iran. Here's North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis speaking on CNN.

[Donald Trump]

We were told about 11 weeks ago by Hegseth and the Department of Defense that they had obliterated Iran's defenses and it was just a matter of time before we had the nuclear material. Now we're talking about a posture where we may accept the nuclear material remaining in Iran. How does that make sense at all?

[Interviewer/Host]

Robert Kagan, A lot of Republicans have spent years criticizing the Obama administration's deal that he signed with Iran in 2015 over Iran's nuclear program. Trump scrapped that deal. What would you have to see in this deal we're talking about now? Is there anything you could see coming out of this deal that would convince you that maybe the Trump administration has improved on the Obama deal?

[Robert Kagan]

Well, if they got agreement from Iran to sort of hand out all of its enriched uranium and to promise not to enrich any further uranium, that would be a victory. But that is not what we're going to get. And I think that it is likely that the deal that Trump comes away with will, will either be the same or worse than the deal that Obama struck. And that is again, because Trump evidently wants to quit the war and the Iranians therefore will come out on top.

[Adrian Florido]

And so what would this mean for

[Interviewer/Host]

Iran's status in the region and its ability to wield power effectively?

[Robert Kagan]

Well, if and when they ever get to a nuclear weapon, that'll obviously have a major impact. But I think it's important to note that what Iran has already won gives it unbelievable power that it's never had before, not only in the region, but in the war. The control of the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran the ability to affect the behavior of every nation in the world that depends on energy supplies from that region and other commodities for that matter. Which means that Iran is going to be calling the shots on a lot of things that goes on in the Middle east, including Israeli behavior. And that's why I think among the biggest losers, and I think we're starting to hear this come out of Israel, is the Israeli government.

[Interviewer/Host]

What about the US's power in the region and the perception of US power globally? What's coming out of this war?

[Robert Kagan]

Well, I think the world is going to see that the United States, with its unparalleled military, launched a war against a second rate power which was severely weakened by a previous conflict and yet was unable to accomplish its objectives. We're already seeing in the Gulf. The Gulf states are now moving toward working out their own agreement with Iran. They don't feel that they can rely on the United States anymore. And, and America's allies, particularly in Asia, who are heavily dependent on the Gulf energy supplies. Countries like Japan and South Korea are going to see that the United States is now unable to protect that source of supply, which means that the United States has essentially put them in a position of real jeopardy.

[Adrian Florido]

You recently wrote that, quote, the global

[Interviewer/Host]

adjustment to a post American world is accelerating. America's once dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties. He said. What about this war has led you to that conclusion, that this is just a signal of the US's overall decline in power globally?

[Robert Kagan]

Yeah, sure, because the loss in the Iran conflict is only coming on top of much larger changes that the United States has made under the Trump administration. And above all, the fundamental abandonment of our allies, particularly in Europe, but also increasingly in Asia. We're pulling troops out of Europe. We've made it clear that we won't protect our European allies, even though we're supposed to under our NATO alliance. And that is forcing countries to change, to arm themselves, to look for alternative means of security, which is going to and already has significantly diminished American influence in the international system.

[Interviewer/Host]

I've been speaking with Robert Kagan. He is a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution. Robert Kagan, thanks for joining us.

[Robert Kagan]

Thank you.

[Adrian Florido]

This episode was produced by Daniel Othman with audio engineering by Hannah Glovna. It was edited by Sarah Robbins. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Adrian Florido.

[Robert Kagan]

Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon prime members can listen to Consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get [e-mail] that's plus.npr.org.