House Speaker may have to make a lot of promises to get bill to Trump's desk

Summary

Episode Summary: House Speaker May Have to Make a Lot of Promises to Get Bill to Trump's Desk

Release Date: July 1, 2025
Podcast: Consider This from NPR
Host: Juana Summers
Guest: Mike Ricci, Partner at Seven Letter and Professor at Georgetown McCourt School of Public Policy

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Senate Passes President Trump’s Tax and Spending Bill

The episode opens with Juana Summers detailing a significant legislative milestone: the Senate's passage of House Resolution 107 (HR1), a pivotal tax and spending bill aimed at advancing President Trump's agenda. This achievement came after intense negotiations and a record-breaking number of votes. The process extended into a "grueling all-nighter" as GOP leaders worked tirelessly to secure the necessary support.

Key Highlights:

• Senate Vote: The Senate vote resulted in a 50-50 split. With Vice President J.D. Vance casting the deciding "yes" vote, the bill successfully passed.
• Opposition: Senators Susan Collins, Rand Paul, and Thom Tillis broke ranks to oppose the bill, resulting in a tied vote.
• President Trump's Reaction: President Trump expressed strong approval, stating the bill's passage is "music to my ears" (00:00-01:20).

Path Forward: From Senate to the House

With the Senate's approval, the bill now moves to the House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a slim majority under House Speaker Mike Johnson. However, Speaker Johnson faces the daunting task of reconciling Senate amendments with his caucus's diverse priorities.

In-Depth Analysis with Mike Ricci

To explore the implications of the Senate's decision and the challenges ahead in the House, Juana Summers invites Mike Ricci, a seasoned Republican political strategist.

• Immediate Reaction to Senate’s Passage (03:43-04:15):

  • Mike Ricci: "It took longer than I expected. The Senate usually doesn't show us as much of the sausage making as the House does... But, you know, here we are on the verge of meeting President Trump's July 4 deadline" (03:49-04:15).

• Negotiation Dynamics and Party Unity (04:15-05:26):

  • Ricci explains the complex negotiations within the Republican Party, highlighting Senator Lisa Murkowski's concessions on SNAP benefits to secure broader support.
  • He draws parallels to the compromises seen in the establishment of Obamacare, suggesting that the current deal may similarly tarnish the bill’s political image due to the extensive behind-the-scenes agreements.

• Fiscal Challenges and House Conservatives (05:26-06:43):

  • The bill’s projected addition of over $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade poses a significant hurdle.
  • Mike Ricci: "Speaker did promise that he would make sure the bill did that... You're going to have a lot of people start to discover that... the bill is not going to help as much as the fiscal hawks were hoping for" (05:48-06:43).
  • House Speaker Johnson faces pressure from fiscal hawks within his caucus, particularly the Freedom Caucus, which has already condemned the bill for violating established budget frameworks.

• Impact of Medicaid Cuts (06:43-07:51):

  • Early estimates indicate that nearly 12 million people could lose their healthcare coverage due to significant Medicaid cuts embedded in the bill.
  • Mike Ricci: "On paper, Republicans are looking at polling saying that... Waste, fraud and abuse is common sense as well to cut. But Medicaid is tied up in rural hospitals, long-term care for seniors... a lot of governors... will have concerns" (06:58-07:51).
  • The severe reductions in Medicaid funding have caused concern among moderate and some conservative House members, who argue that the cuts could have devastating effects on vulnerable populations.

• Political Risks for Republicans (07:51-08:21):

  • Ricci discusses the potential electoral backlash Republicans may face if the Medicaid cuts lead to widespread loss of healthcare coverage.
  • Mike Ricci: "The burden would be a lot on these blue state governors in particular to try to make this about affordability and cost of living... that will be the test of whether it's a defining issue in the election" (08:02-08:21).
  • As many Republicans enter reelection campaigns next year, the fallout from this bill could significantly impact their political fortunes, especially in blue states where opposition to Medicaid cuts is likely to be strong.

Concluding Insights

The episode concludes with a reflection on the precarious position of House Speaker Mike Johnson as he navigates internal party divisions and external pressures. The passage of the Senate bill marks a critical step for President Trump’s agenda, but its success in the House remains uncertain amidst substantial fiscal and humanitarian concerns.

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Notable Quotes:

• President Trump: “Music to my ears.” (00:00-01:20)
• Mike Ricci: “It took longer than I expected... but, you know, here we are on the verge of meeting President Trump's July 4 deadline.” (03:49-04:15)
• Mike Ricci: “The bill is not going to help as much as the fiscal hawks were hoping for.” (05:48-06:43)
• Mike Ricci: “The burden would be a lot on these blue state governors...” (08:02-08:21)

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This detailed summary encapsulates the critical developments surrounding the Senate's passage of the tax and spending bill, the ensuing challenges in the House, and the broader political implications for the Republican Party. It provides a comprehensive overview for listeners and readers seeking to understand the complexities of this legislative process without having listened to the episode.

Transcript

[Juana Summers]

The tax and spending legislation critical to President Trump's agenda has already made history. After weeks of negotiations among Republicans, it has finally passed the Senate following a record setting number of votes starting Monday morning. Calendar number 107 HR1, An act to Provide for Reconciliation pursuant to Title 2 of H. Conraz 14. Voting dragged into a grueling all nighter. As Republicans attempted to shore up support among their ranks. GOP leaders darted in and out of offices trying to balance the demands of senators who thought the bill's cuts were too deep with those who thought they didn't go far enough. And their slim Senate majority meant they could only afford to lose three votes. And as it turned out, their efforts were just enough. Ms. Collins, Mr. Paul, Mr. Tillis, Maine's Susan Collins, Kentucky's Rand Paul, and North Carolina's Thom Tillis broke ranks and opposed the bill, tying the vote after all, Democrats voted no. At that point, the bill's fate rested in the hands of Vice President J.D. vance, who took his seat at the front of the chamber mid vote.

[Mike Ricci]

On this vote, the yeas are 50, the nays are 50. The Senate being evenly divided, the Vice President votes in the affirmative. The bill, as amended, is passed.

[Juana Summers]

President Trump, who had asked lawmakers to get the legislation to his desk by July 4, welcomed the news, calling it music to my ears. Consider this after long and contentious debate, the Senate has finally passed President Trump's massive tax and spending bill. Its fate now lies in the House, where Republicans also hold a wafer thin majority. From npr, I'm Juana Summers. The House of Representatives has approved a White House request to claw back two years of previously approved funding for public media. The rescissions package now moves on to the Senate. This move poses a serious threat to local stations and public media as we know it. Please take a stand for public media [e-mail] thank you. Decades ago, Brazilian women made a discovery. They could have an abortion without a doctor thanks to a tiny pill. That pill spawned a global movement helping millions of women have safe abortions regardless of the law. Hear that story on the network from NPR's Embedded and Futuro Media. Wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mike Ricci]

You know those things you shout at the radio or maybe even at this very NPR podcast on NPR's Wait, Wait, don't tell me. We say those things on the radio and on the podcast. We're rude across all media. We think the news can take it. Listen to NPR's Wait Wait, don't tell me. Wherever you get your podcasts.

[Juana Summers]

It'S Consider this from npr. The massive tax and spending bill central to President Trump's agenda is one step closer to reality. After weeks of negotiations and 49 consecutive votes that started Monday morning, the the Senate approved President Trump's signature domestic policy bill around lunchtime today. It now goes back to the House of Representatives, where Republican Speaker Mike Johnson will have to reconcile the Senate changes with his members competing priorities. That's why we're going to bring in Michael Ricci. He's had a long career in Republican politics, including working as Speaker Paul Ryan's deputy communications director and Speaker John Boehner's chief speechwriter. Thanks for joining us.

[Mike Ricci]

Thank you for having me, Juana.

[Juana Summers]

Thank you, Mike. Just start, if you can, by giving us your immediate reaction to the passage of this bill in the Senate today.

[Mike Ricci]

It took longer than I expected. The Senate usually doesn't show us as much of the sausage making as the House does. Even their Votoramas are usually happening overnight, and we all wake up in the morning and. And they're done. So to see this happen in the light of day, I'm sure it took longer than Leader Thune expected, but that's when you have tight margins like this. That's what happens. But, you know, here we are on the verge of meeting President Trump's July.

[Juana Summers]

4 deadline, and majority Leader John Thune, as you mentioned, he had to make a lot of deals to bring along the nose in his party, even making concessions to Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski around SNAP benefits for people in her state. I know that most of your experience when we've talked before is in the House, but I wonder, have you seen a deal come together quite like this before?

[Mike Ricci]

Yeah, I mean, the, the more people are texting each other and reading the bill, you know, it's a bill that, it's got a lot. You're gonna have a lot of conservative members in the House who are gonna say, you know, I'm loyal to the president, I do whatever he needs. And, you know, you have this moderate senator who basically was able to pack this bill with, you know, tax breaks for whalers and things like that. And so I think the longer this bill is out there, the more people are gonna discover that. And you may remember how much that hurt the political, the initial political image of Obamacare, how many deals were made at the end for Democrats. So I think House conservatives, the more they, the deals that Senator Murkowski was able to make, it's only going to add to the frustration. But, you know, I do believe that she was genuinely Torn. And with, you know, losing Senator Tillis vote over the weekend, it did give her, her leverage to get as much as she could.

[Juana Summers]

Now the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that the Senate bill would add more than $3 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years. So how is House Speaker Mike Johnson going to be able to make the case to get his caucus behind this bill, particularly those fiscal hawks? I mean, the Freedom Cauc has warned that this bill violates a budget framework already endorsed by more than 30 House Republicans.

[Mike Ricci]

Yeah, there was a right, there was a fiscal framework that about, yeah, 30 or 37 House Republicans had said they needed to see the bill aligned with. Speaker did promise that he would make sure the bill did that. It's a time honored tradition for speakers to go to the members and say, look, the Senate changed this on me. There's nothing I can do at this point. We've gotten the best deal we can. We can either, you know, go to conference and risk blowing the president's deadline or we'll just, you know, take this and he'll probably start to make, you know, this is when speakers start to make a lot of promises. I'm sure we're going to hear in the next 24 hours about fiscal commissions, new doge efforts, more promises to cut spending. He's going to have to promise a lot to get over the finish line. But no matter how you cut it, you know, there's a lot they try to, the White House tries to put its own studies out there, its own analyses out there, but there's no question the bill is not going to help as much as the fiscal hawks were hoping for.

[Juana Summers]

And then on the other side, there are the cuts to Medicaid where early estimates suggest that nearly 12 million people could lose their health care coverage under the bill. And many moderates and some conservatives in the House have warned that they cannot support the cuts in the bill. Did the Senate changes to your mind, do anything to address that?

[Mike Ricci]

So the Senate went more conservative on Medicaid than I think a lot of the, than the House expected. And I think, you know, on paper, Republicans are looking at polling saying that, you know, trying to take undocumented immigrants off the rolls is good. You know, work requirements make sense. Waste, fraud and abuse is common sense as well to cut. But you know, as you know, Medicaid is tied up in rural hospitals, long term care for seniors. I mean, a lot of governors, including probably some Republican governors over time who have concerns about these provisions. Be interesting to hear what House members are hearing from hospitals, from governors from rural areas over the next 24 hours. But at this point, again, you know, maybe they'll promise a second reconciliation bill to fix some of that. But a lot of this seems baked in the cake at this point, unfortunately.

[Juana Summers]

Going back to that fact on the Medicaid that millions could lose their coverage with this bill. How big of a risk is this politically for congressional Republicans, many of whom will be starting reelection campaigns this time next year?

[Mike Ricci]

You know, they tried to delay all this so that it doesn't hit next year. So I think the burden would be a lot on these blue state governors in particular to try to make this about affordability and cost of living. If they can tie it to that. The way we just saw affordability and cost of living be a big issue last week in New York, I think that will be the test of whether it's a defining issue in the election.

[Juana Summers]

We'll leave it there. That's Mike Ricci, who served in many positions for many Republicans in leadership. He's now a partner at Seven Letter and a professor at the Georgetown McCourt School School of Public Policy. Thank you.

[Mike Ricci]

Thank you for having me, Juana.

[Juana Summers]

This episode was produced by Elena Burnett and Brianna Scott with audio engineering by Tiffany Vera Castro. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Sarah Handel. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Juana Summers. On the plus side, you get sponsor free listening to over 25 NPR podcasts. On the minus side, you get fewer chances to tap fast forward on your podcast player. On the plus side, you get to support something you care about. On the minus side, you like challenges and think this makes it too easy. So why don't you join us on the plus side of things with NPR? Learn more and sign up at plus.npr.org On NPR's Wildcard podcast, Michelle Obama says she's reinventing herself. I don't know if my ambition has ever fully been able to actualize itself. I think I'm now at a stage in my life where all my choices are mine. I'm Rachel Martin. Listen to Wildcard for a conversation about balancing family and personal growth with Michelle Obama. Wanna hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon prime members can listen to Consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this [e-mail] that's plus.NPR.org.