How Canada's national election has been largely shaped by Donald Trump

Summary

Consider This from NPR – Episode Summary: How Canada's National Election Has Been Largely Shaped by Donald Trump

Release Date: April 27, 2025

In this episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Scott Detrow explores the profound influence of U.S. President Donald Trump on Canada's federal election. As Canada heads to the polls, national pride and political dynamics are undergoing significant shifts, largely in response to Trump's policies and rhetoric.

---

1. Surge of Canadian Nationalism

As Canada's federal election approaches, a palpable sense of national pride is sweeping across the nation. Scott Detrow describes scenes from rallies in Halifax, Nova Scotia, where supporters chant "Elbows up"—a hockey term symbolizing readiness to defend Canadian interests. This surge in patriotism is a direct reaction to the perceived threats from the United States under President Trump.

Notable Quote:

"Elbows up. That's a hockey term, expressing a willingness to defend yourself, to throw a punch."
— Scott Detrow, [00:00]

---

2. Economic Tensions and Boycotts

Trump's imposition of new tariffs has posed a significant threat to the Canadian economy, which is heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. In retaliation, many Canadians are canceling planned trips to the U.S. and favoring Canadian-made products over American imports. This economic pushback reflects a broader move towards self-reliance and resistance against U.S. economic pressures.

Notable Quote:

"We are a good neighbor who will still be there for our big brother, but we don't need you anymore, America."
— Comedian Sean Majumder, paraphrased by Scott Detrow, [00:00]

---

3. Trump's Threats to Canadian Sovereignty

President Trump's rhetoric has not only strained economic ties but also challenged Canada's sovereignty. He has frequently mocked former Canadian Prime Ministers and made provocative statements about turning Canada into the "51st American state." These comments have heightened fears among Canadians about the erosion of their national independence.

Notable Quote:

"President Trump has mocked the former Canadian Prime Minister and repeatedly threatened Canada's sovereignty by expressing his desire to turn Canada into the 51st American state."
— Narration by Scott Detrow, [01:13]

Retired teacher Barbara Wilson from Milton, Ontario, voiced her serious concerns:

Notable Quote:

"For me personally, this is not funny. Like I've heard some people say, oh, you know, he's just joking. He's just joking. No, this is not funny. To us. It is a threat. It is real."
— Barbara Wilson, [01:13]

---

4. Impact on the Election: Shifting Political Landscape

The predominance of Trump's influence has significantly altered the Canadian political landscape. Initially, the Conservative Opposition Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, was expected to secure a comfortable victory, leading the Liberals by over 20 points in the polls. However, the unpredictable nature of Trump's actions and the resignation of an unpopular Prime Minister have narrowed the gap, allowing the Liberal Party, now under Mark Carney, to gain ground.

Notable Quote:

"Trump is the dominant issue on the ballot."
— Simra Sevi, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto, [02:19]

Notable Quote:

"The Liberals went from being written off three months ago and now we're talking about them possibly forming a majority government. That's a major shift in Canadian politics."
— Lloyd Axworthy, [03:00]

---

5. Expert Insights: Lloyd Axworthy on US-Canada Relations

Scott Detrow interviews Lloyd Axworthy, former Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs and current chair of the World Refugee and Migration Council. Axworthy provides a comprehensive analysis of how Trump's presidency has disrupted the long-standing US-Canada alliance.

Key Points:

• Erosion of Trust: The foundational trust between the two nations has significantly diminished.

  Notable Quote:

  "A couple of major ruptures have taken place. One is the fundamental question of trust."
  — Lloyd Axworthy, [05:44]

• Shift in Diplomacy: Canada is seeking to collaborate with other countries, such as Mexico, to mitigate reliance on the U.S.

• Public Sentiment: There is widespread dissatisfaction among Canadians regarding America's political direction, leading to unified resistance against U.S. policies.

---

6. Potential for Deteriorated Relations

Axworthy discusses the possibility of increasingly strained relations between Canada and the U.S. While a hot war is unlikely, the relationship may become "cold and frosty," adversely affecting both nations.

Key Points:

• Economic Boycotts: Canadians are actively boycotting American products, with observable signs like the removal of bourbon and American wine from shelves.

  Notable Quote:

  "People are selling their condos in Florida. People are no longer sort of buying American products."
  — Lloyd Axworthy, [07:26]

• Border Security Concerns: Increased border security measures may hinder the ease of crossing, potentially leading to personal and economic inconveniences.

  Notable Quote:

  "I personally question whether I could cross the border without being apprehended."
  — Lloyd Axworthy, [10:58]

---

7. Future Implications and Conclusion

The federal election is poised to be one of the most significant in recent Canadian history. Regardless of the outcome, the next Prime Minister will have the challenging task of navigating a strained relationship with the U.S. under Trump’s administration. Axworthy emphasizes the need for Canada to adapt and seek new international partnerships to safeguard its sovereignty and economic interests.

Notable Quote:

"We're living next door to a government that seems to be hell bent on expansion of intimidation and of getting its own way, and is not clearly interested in cooperative efforts."
— Lloyd Axworthy, [08:58]

Final Thoughts: The episode underscores the profound impact of external political forces on national elections and international relations. As Canadians head to the polls, the nation's future direction remains closely tied to its ability to assert independence and redefine its alliance with the United States.

---

Notable Quotes Summary:

• "We are a good neighbor who will still be there for our big brother, but we don't need you anymore, America." — Sean Majumder, [00:00]
• "For me personally, this is not funny. [...] It is a threat. It is real." — Barbara Wilson, [02:09]
• "A couple of major ruptures have taken place. One is the fundamental question of trust." — Lloyd Axworthy, [05:44]
• "Trump is the dominant issue on the ballot." — Simra Sevi, [02:19]
• "People are selling their condos in Florida. People are no longer sort of buying American products." — Lloyd Axworthy, [07:26]
• "I personally question whether I could cross the border without being apprehended." — Lloyd Axworthy, [10:58]

---

Produced by Kira Joachim with audio engineering by David Greenberg and Simon Laszlo Jansen. Edited by Tinbit Ermias and Tara Neal. Executive Producer Sammy Yenigun.

For more insights and updates, listen to "Consider This" on your preferred podcast platform or support NPR at plus.npr.org/considerthis.

Transcript

[Scott Detrow]

Ahead of Canada's federal election, there seems to be a groundswell of national pride. Elbows up. I love you, Canada. You guys are brave. Go, Canada, go. Go, Canada, go. Elbows up. That's a hockey term, expressing a willingness to defend yourself, to throw a punch. And it's a phrase Canadians have been using to express their nationalism at rallies across the country, like this one in Halifax, Nova Scotia. And that wellspring of Canadian pride, it's mostly thanks to US President Donald Trump. Here's how comedian Sean Majumder put it. We are a good neighbor who will still be there for our big brother, but we don't need you anymore, America. New tariffs have threatened to crush the Canadian economy, which depends heavily on US Trade. In response, many Canadians have canceled planned travel to the US and are avoiding even boycotting American made products in favor of Canadian ones. But it's not just tariffs that are causing Canadians to sour on the US and embrace national pride.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

I spoke to Governor Trudeau on numerous occasions, and we'll see what happens.

[Scott Detrow]

President Trump has mocked the former Canadian Prime Minister and repeatedly threatened Canada's sovereignty by expressing his desire to to turn Canada into the 51st American state. On Friday, he did it again, telling Time magazine he wasn't trolling and that he was serious about taking over Canada. For me personally, this is not funny. Like I've heard some people say, oh, you know, he's just joking. He's just joking. No, this is not funny. This is not funny. To us. It is a threat. It is real. That's Barbara Wilson. She's a retired teacher from Milton, Ontario, about an hour west of Toronto. For her and millions of other Canadians, Donald Trump and the risks he poses to Canadian sovereignty are very much on the ballot in tomorrow's federal election, which many believe to be the most consequential in decades. Yeah, we're feeling vulnerable and it's not good. And we need strong leadership. I think we have two very competent, capable people that could lead, but the voters will decide.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

The constant threats, the unpredictability, the threats of annexing Canada, the tariffs and so on have been felt really hard here.

[Scott Detrow]

Simra Sevi is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto. She says Trump is the dominant issue on the ballot.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

Voters are looking for leaders who can handle the unpredictability coming from south of the border.

[Scott Detrow]

Sevy says that unpredictability has helped upend what was supposed to be an easy electoral victory for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative opposition party. At one point, the party was leading the Liberals in the polls by more than 20 points. But all of that has been turned on its head, thanks to the resignation of an unpopular prime minister and more than anything, the arrival of Trump. Now the Liberals, led by newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney, have caught up. Here's seve again.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

The Liberals went from being written off three months ago and now we're talking about them possibly forming a majority government. That's a major shift in Canadian politics.

[Scott Detrow]

Consider this, the race between Canada's two major parties has tightened in recent days. But no matter which party wins the election on Monday, the country's next prime minister will have to navigate an increasingly hostile relationship with the United States under Donald Trump. Coming up, we will speak to a former Canadian foreign minister, a member of the Liberal Party, about what has been lost between the two former allies amid threats to Canada's sovereignty. From npr, I'm Scott Detrow. Imagine, if you will, a show from NPR that's not like npr, a show that focuses not on the important, but the stupid, which features stories about people smuggling animals in their pants, incompetent criminals and ridiculous science studies. And call it Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me because the good names were taken. Listen to NPR's Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me. Yes, that is what it is called. Wherever you get your podcasts foreign. I'm Jesse Thorne. This week on Bullseye Fat Joe on being a late middle aged rapper with an 18 year old daughter.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

She's really looking at me like I'm a dinosaur.

[Scott Detrow]

So she's like, yo, dad, come on now. You going where? Stop. Just stay home, watch Jeopardy. That's on the next bullseye. From MaximumFun.org and NPR, there was Barbenheimer Summer, then Bratz Summer. What will this season bring? Maybe it's the season of actual good superhero movies like the Fantastic Four and Superman. For a guide to the movies and TV we're most excited about this summer, listen to the Pop Culture Happy hour podcast from npr. It's consider this from npr. Canadians head to the polls tomorrow in an election that many believe to be the most consequential in decades. And a big reason for that is America's President Donald Trump. And no matter which party wins tomorrow, Canada's new leader will need to think about how the country will position itself in relation to Trump at a rapidly changing world order. I talked about all of this with Lloyd Axworthy, a member of the Liberal Party who served as minister of foreign affairs in Canada from 1996-20. These days he chairs the World Refugee and Migration Council. When we spoke, he told me that the strong alliance between the US And Canada, a hallmark of global affairs for generations, has been severely disrupted.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

A couple of major ruptures have taken place. One is the fundamental question of trust. That's the lubricant that makes things happen. And we've always had this trusting relationship, and now it's lost and what a lot of Canadians believe. And I just, you know, I had a dinner with a group of friends last night who basically said what bothers them is the Most that over 70 million Americans voted for Donald Trump, knowing that he had these kinds of really extremist positions and are still supporting him. I mean, I know his approval ratings, I guess, are coming down. But that really means how in the future can we trust? Because it's clear that the kind of democratic safeguards that were put in place by the Constitution are just being overridden. So it would take some time and it would take some very different opening, but I think it can happen. Let me just say. I mean, when I was Foreign Minister of Canada, I guess one of my best friends was Madeleine Albright. We had some differences, certainly, but. But we also work cooperative together to make sure that things like salmon and water and trade and so on. We're working well. We don't walk around with a chip on our shoulder. But the provocation, I think, is there.

[Scott Detrow]

When you're talking about a threat, when you're talking about rhetoric, about land acquisition, when you're talking about strong measures, these are all pretty serious terms that sometimes lead to very serious consequences. At the far extreme of things, we're talking about the things that the war start around. How much worse do you think the relationship between the United States and Canada, as strange of a question as this is to ask, could get?

[Lloyd Axworthy]

Well, I think one of the strategies that Canadian governments will be following is we don't want to get into sort of a hot war with the United States, but we will be working very actively to develop collaboration with other countries. Mexico is a good example, but there are other countries around the world who are feeling the. The impact of Mr. Trump's sort of aggressiveness. You'd be amazed, Scott, to see how Canadians have responded. All the bourbon and American wine are off the shelves. People are selling their condos in Florida. People are no longer sort of buying American products. And it's just, it's a full scale kind of protest. And I think the election itself will solidify that. It will, it will unify Canadians around that. And therefore, I think the American government, and Mr. Trump and his administration will have to deal with a very unified and very sort of strongly deterrent country of 40 million people to say we're not accepting this kind of aggression and intervention.

[Scott Detrow]

Can I just take a step back and I want to ask you about something I was thinking about. The last question I asked you is what do you think about the prospect of an American Canadian war? You are the former Foreign Secretary of Canada. You're talking about your close relationship with Madeleine Albright, the close relationship between the U.S. and Canada. How does it feel to even be having this theoretical conversation? It just seems like such a strange thing to be asked.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

Oh, I know. It's Scott, it's surreal. I mean, I don't feel that I would ever have had to be engaged in this kind of conversation. Canadians are first. They're angry, but they're also sad. And we're also learning how to adapt. I mean, in a way. I wrote an article for one of the major newspapers, said that we have to look at Ukraine as a cautionary tale. And I remember once meeting with a senior Ukrainian leader who asked me the question. He said, look, how is it that you live next to a big powerful country and you seem to get along? And my answer was, well, do it cautiously. But we're now in the same situation in a way that Ukraine is. We're living next door to a government that seems to be hell bent on expansion of intimidation and of getting its own way, and is not clearly interested in cooperative efforts, which I think is so unlike, I think, what we've been used to dealing with in different administrations from the different parties.

[Scott Detrow]

Obviously, there's the massive trade between the two countries on the border. What else is the biggest thing to you that is lost here if this tense relationship continues?

[Lloyd Axworthy]

I guess as somebody who has spent a lot of time in international matters, the withdrawal of the United States from cooperative relationships with countries and governments that share their values, this kind of isolationism, this pulling back, this seemed preference to play in the same sandboxes as Putin and Chipping and the other sort of authoritarians. I mean, it's a. It really is sort of stunning for those outside to see just what is happening. Personally, I question whether I, whether I could cross the border without being apprehended.

[Scott Detrow]

Really? That's a serious concern.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

Yes, it is a serious. There are, there already are cautionary advisories going out because what we're seeing is that border security, if they ask you to give over their cell phone and they check it out and say that somebody you're making a comment about the president of the United States, who knows where you're going to end up? I mean, I think this increasing effort to overcome basic rules and laws and treatments is having a huge impact. And we had really strong levels of connection. And we could end up having a very cold and frosty border, which I think would be to the detriment of both of us.

[Scott Detrow]

Lloyd Axworthy is former Canadian minister of foreign affairs and is now the chair of the World Refugee and Migration Council. Thank you so much for, I guess, talking to this American in this moment and helping us understand how Canadians are viewing this moment in time.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

Well, I appreciate the opportunity to do it. Thank you very much.

[Scott Detrow]

This episode was produced by Kira Joachim with audio engineering by David Greenberg and Simon Laszlo Jansen. It was edited by Tinbit Ermias and Tara Neal. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Scott Detrow. On the next through line from npr. For the presidency, I'm indebted to Almighty God. I'm in charge of the country, and.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

I need to serve all the American.

[Scott Detrow]

People and not just the political machine.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

The origins of the modern civil service. Listen to Throughline wherever you get your podcasts. Want to know what's happening in the world? Listen to the State of the World podcast. Every weekday, we bring you important stories from around the globe. In just a few minutes, you might hear how democracy is holding up in South Korea or meet Indian monkeys that have turned to crime.

[Scott Detrow]

We don't go around the world.

[Lloyd Axworthy]

We're already there. Listen to the State of the World podcast from npr.

[Scott Detrow]

Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon prime members can listen to Consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this [e-mail] that's plus.NPR.org.