How does diplomacy work during a military deadlock?

Summary

Podcast Summary: "How does diplomacy work during a military deadlock?"

Consider This from NPR
Host: Emily Feng
Guest Expert: Suzanne DiMaggio, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Date: May 3, 2026
Duration: ~8 minutes (excluding ads and credits)

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Episode Overview

This episode examines how diplomacy operates during military stalemates, focusing specifically on the current deadlock between the United States and Iran in the context of ongoing conflict and naval blockade. Host Emily Feng and guest Suzanne DiMaggio—an experienced diplomatic negotiator—discuss the complexities, hurdles, and possible avenues for peaceful resolution, even as direct talks remain off the table and mistrust runs high.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Conflict and Peace Talks

• Escalating Tension:
  The US has redirected over 40 vessels as part of a blockade against Iranian ports, while incidents like the small-boat attack near the Strait of Hormuz exacerbate tensions. Iranian state media broadcast warnings to foreign warships (00:00–00:42).
• Diplomatic Deadlock:
  Both sides publicly claim to be “winning,” but peace talks have produced no permanent ceasefire. Iran recently submitted a 14-point response to a US proposal, implied as a potential opening for negotiation (00:42–01:10).
• US Stance & Mixed Messaging:
  President Trump has made statements alternating between openness to negotiation and threats of renewed military action, reflecting uncertainty or strategic ambiguity in US policy (01:10–01:24).
  • Memorable Quote:

    “So they want to make a deal, but I don't. I'm not satisfied with it. So we'll see what happens.”
    — President Trump (01:10)

  • Memorable Quote:

    “Do we want to go and just blast the hell out of him and finish him forever, or do we want to try and make a deal?... I'd prefer not. On a human basis, I'd prefer not. But that's the option.”
    — President Trump (01:24)

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2. Iran’s Latest Proposal and Implications

• Shift in Demands:
  Previously, Iran insisted on lifting the US naval blockade as a precondition for talks. In their newest proposal, they dropped this demand, offering a 30-day period to negotiate a permanent end to the war (03:28–04:21).
• Desire for Permanent Resolution:
  Iran is seeking a lasting solution rather than a temporary ceasefire. Genuine negotiation and mutual concessions are required; unconditional surrender is unlikely (03:28–04:21).
  • Insightful Quote:

    “The Iranians want a real negotiation with the understanding that both sides will have to make concessions. In other words, the unconditional surrender that President Trump has been seeking is not likely to happen anytime soon.”
    — Suzanne DiMaggio (04:13)

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3. Potential Paths Forward

• Reciprocal Actions:
  DiMaggio suggests a possible way forward would be for the US to announce an end to the blockade, potentially matched by Iran reopening the strait and committing to talks (04:41–05:02).
  • Quote:

    “...for the US to announce the end of a blockade and the Iranians in turn, or perhaps simultaneously, if that could be negotiated, would declare the strait as open and commit to the negotiating process.”
    — Suzanne DiMaggio (04:41)

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4. Diplomacy Through Intermediaries and 'Talks About Talks'

• No Direct Talks, Use of Mediators:
  Current negotiations occur via intermediaries (e.g., Pakistan and Oman), rather than direct US-Iran dialogue (05:02–05:25).
• 'Secret Talks About Talks':
  DiMaggio highlights the effectiveness of confidential, indirect dialogues—used during previous US-Iran nuclear negotiations—to clarify intentions and set frameworks before formal talks, establishing trust and realistic expectations (05:25–06:40).
  • Insightful Reflection:

    “There were a series of secret talks that were convened mainly in Oman. And this was an opportunity for the Iranians and Americans to get together quietly...to talk about what would be an acceptable set of parameters for the talks and what are the expected outcomes. Also to clarify intentions. And I think that went a long way towards establishing some degree of trust, but also a very realistic roadmap for getting there that's missing at the moment.”
    — Suzanne DiMaggio (05:43–06:28)

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5. Distrust and Previous Diplomatic Setbacks

• Canceled Meetings and Mistrust:
  Previous proposals for direct talks in Islamabad failed, primarily due to Iranian distrust. Iranians prefer to first establish negotiation frameworks, seeking “action for action” confidence-building after surprise attacks during prior diplomatic overtures (06:40–07:44).
  • Quote on Distrust:

    “The Iranians want to have a framework in place first and then meet using that framework as the basis for negotiations...This is due to the distrust resulting from the surprise attacks in June 2025 and then in February 2026, which occurred while diplomatic talks were underway. So the Iranians are very wary. They don't want to walk into that trap again.”
    — Suzanne DiMaggio (07:01–07:44)

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Notable Quotes (with Timestamps and Attributions)

• President Trump:

  “So they want to make a deal, but I don't. I'm not satisfied with it. So we'll see what happens.” (01:10) “Do we want to go and just blast the hell out of him and finish him forever, or do we want to try and make a deal?... I'd prefer not. On a human basis, I'd prefer not. But that's the option.” (01:24)

• Suzanne DiMaggio on Iran’s Shift:

  “The Iranians want a real negotiation with the understanding that both sides will have to make concessions. In other words, the unconditional surrender that President Trump has been seeking is not likely to happen anytime soon.” (04:13) “There were a series of secret talks...to clarify intentions. And I think that went a long way towards establishing some degree of trust, but also a very realistic roadmap for getting there that's missing at the moment.” (05:43–06:28) “The Iranians want to have a framework in place first ... due to the distrust resulting from the surprise attacks in June 2025 and then in February 2026, which occurred while diplomatic talks were underway. So the Iranians are very wary. They don't want to walk into that trap again.” (07:01–07:44)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:00–02:11: Episode and current conflict setup
• 03:17–04:21: Analysis of Iranian proposal and US expectations
• 05:02–06:40: The role of intermediaries and “talks about talks”
• 06:40–07:44: Challenges to direct talks and the impact of mistrust

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Conclusion

This episode provides a nuanced look at how diplomacy functions when hostilities and mistrust between nations are at their peak. While the Iranian proposal suggests some movement towards negotiation, deep-seated suspicion and prior bad faith actions mean diplomatic progress will require incremental steps and creative, patient dialogue—often through intermediaries or even secret contacts. Direct breakthroughs are possible, but will need trust-building and willingness to make concessions on both sides.

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Transcript

[Emily Feng]

It's consider this where every day we go deep on one big news story. The war with Iran is in a deadlock. American warships have redirected more than 40 vessels in their ongoing blockade of Iranian ports, according to US Central Command. On Sunday, a UK Maritime watchdog said a cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by small boats. And Iranian state media has published warnings like this one transmitted to vessels in the area.

[Iranian State Media]

Warship one two one, this is SEPA Navy Station. You must alter course and go back to the Indian Ocean immediately. If you don't obey my order, you will be targeted out.

[Emily Feng]

On Sunday evening, President Trump said on social media that the U.S. would attempt to help neutral ships leave the strait starting Monday. As for peace talks, there is no permanent ceasefire. The newest proposal is from Iranian negotiators. This past week they submitted a 14 point response to a previous US proposal to end the conflict. And state Media says the U.S. has responded. President Trump was vague when asked by reporters about the proposal on Friday.

[President Trump]

So they want to make a deal, but I don't. I'm not satisfied with it. So we'll see what happens.

[Emily Feng]

The president has oscillated between comments like that one and threats to resume the American bombing campaign if he does not get a deal.

[President Trump]

I mean, do we want to go and just blast the hell out of him and finish him forever, or do we want to try and make a deal? I mean, those are the opposite. Do you want to go blast the hell out of him? I'd prefer not. On a human basis, I'd prefer not. But that's the option.

[Emily Feng]

All this is complicated negotiations which the US And Iran are holding through intermediaries. Consider a diplomatic solution will be critical in bringing the Iran war to an end. So how do leaders try to negotiate with countries they're in conflict with? From NPR News, I'm Emily Feng.

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[Emily Feng]

It's consider this from NPR. Suzanne DiMaggio is an expert on diplomacy with U.S. adversaries. She's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where she's conducted unofficial negotiations with countries that have no diplomatic relations with the United States, like North Korea and Iran. Welcome.

[Suzanne DiMaggio]

Glad to be with you. Thanks for having me.

[Emily Feng]

So both the US And Iran have indicated they think they're winning this conflict. How would you characterize the current state of peace talks with Iran?

[Suzanne DiMaggio]

Well, I would say right now we are in a stalemate. But the Iranians have now put forward a new proposal which I think seems like a new opening. They had been assisting that the lifting of the US Naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz was a precondition for any return to talks. But in this latest proposal, they appear to have dropped this precondition and now they're Instead proposing a 30 day period to negotiate a permanent end to the war. And I think that's what's important. They just don't want a temporary ceasefire, they want a permanent end. I think what it boils down to is this. The Iranians want a real negotiation with the understanding that both sides will have to make concessions. In other words, the unconditional surrender that President Trump has been seeking is not likely to happen anytime soon.

[Emily Feng]

This sounds like progress then?

[Suzanne DiMaggio]

I think it could be progress as long as the US Sees it that way. If they hold on to President Trump's wish for some magical thinking that the Iranians are going to come to the table and concede on everything, that's just not going to happen.

[Emily Feng]

Where does the US Then go from here?

[Suzanne DiMaggio]

I think there's a potential way forward here, and that would be for the US to announce the end of a blockade and the Iranians in turn, or perhaps simultaneously, if that could be negotiated, would declare the strait as open and commit to the negotiating process.

[Emily Feng]

As you mentioned, there's no direct talks between US And Iranian negotiators. They're going through diplomats from Pakistan, Oman, in some cases in the past. Is there any way you can talk about perhaps some of the creative ways you've employed to get the two countries, the US And Iran, talking, even though they cannot have face to face conversations?

[Suzanne DiMaggio]

It's a very good question. One way that I would recommend is what I would call secret talks about talks. And these days it's very hard to do anything in secret, but I think it can be done. Before the JCPOA was reached, this was

[Emily Feng]

a nuclear agreement between the U.

[Suzanne DiMaggio]

S and Iran. That's right. There were a series of secret talks that were convened mainly in Oman. And this was an opportunity for the Iranians and Americans to get together quietly without the glare of cameras. Without that pressure to talk about what would be an acceptable set of parameters for the talks and what are the expected outcomes. Also to clarify intentions. And I think that went a long way towards establishing some degree of trust, but also a very realistic roadmap for getting there that's missing at the moment. So that would be my suggestion. The Trump administration engaged in something similar with the North Koreans that I was also involved in. So this is a tried and true method to really get to direct discussions with an adversary.

[Emily Feng]

There have been proposals for U.S. and Iranian officials to meet in Islamabad, in Pakistan, but those have been called off. Was that a mistake?

[Suzanne DiMaggio]

I don't necessarily think that was a mistake, because if you remember, the context of that was quite actually weird. President Trump called for the talks, said they were going to happen, but in actuality, the Iranians never agreed to it. And I think one of the reasons is a high degree of distrust. The Iranians want to have a framework in place first and then meet using that framework as the basis for negotiations. So they want to proceed on an action for action basis to build confidence. And this is due to the distrust resulting from the surprise attacks in June 2025 and then in February 2026, which occurred while diplomatic talks were underway. So the Iranians are very wary. They don't want to walk into that trap again.

[Emily Feng]

Suzanne DiMaggio. She's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thank you.

[Suzanne DiMaggio]

It's my pleasure. Thanks.

[Emily Feng]

This episode was produced by Henry Larson. It was edited by Sarah Robbins and Tim B. Ermias. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's consider this from n. I'm emily feng.