How gerrymandering became a blood sport

Summary

Consider This from NPR: How Gerrymandering Became a Blood Sport Release Date: August 5, 2025

In this episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Ari Shapiro delves into the escalating battles over gerrymandering in the United States, exploring how what was once a standard political maneuver has transformed into a fierce and potentially destructive confrontation between parties. Through expert analysis and firsthand accounts, the episode unpacks the strategies, motivations, and implications of aggressive redistricting efforts, particularly focusing on recent developments in Texas and their national ramifications.

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Introduction to the Gerrymandering Conflict

Ari Shapiro opens the discussion by highlighting President Trump's recent statements about redrawing Texas's congressional districts to favor Republicans. This move aims to secure an additional five seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, a strategy made feasible by the absence of federal restrictions on partisan gerrymandering, as affirmed by the Supreme Court in 2019.

[00:00] Ari Shapiro: "President Trump is quite explicit about what's happening in Texas. Just a very simple redrawing. We pick up five seats."

The potential impact of these changes is significant, with the added seats possibly tipping the balance of power in the House come 2026. Democrats are responding by mobilizing at the state level, with strategies ranging from legal challenges to outright resistance.

Democratic Resistance and Retaliation

Texas Democrats, feeling the pressure of potential losses, have taken drastic measures to counteract the redistricting efforts. State Representative Gina Hinojosa has publicly condemned the plans, emphasizing their undemocratic nature and commitment to fighting them.

[00:59] Gina Hinojosa: "It is undemocratic. It is anti the foundations of our country, and it is extreme and harmful to our constituents. So we will do everything in our power to fight it."

Similarly, New York Governor Kathy Hochul has voiced frustration over the limitations imposed by independent redistricting commissions, contemplating the dissolution or alteration of such bodies to reclaim control over district drawing.

[01:32] Kathy Hochul: "Other states don't have the same aspirations that we always have had, and I hold those dear. But I cannot ignore that this. The playing field has changed dramatically."

Expert Insights: The Nuclear Arms Race for House Control

To shed light on the broader implications of these maneuvers, Ari Shapiro welcomes Dave Wasserman, senior editor and political analyst for the Cook Political Report. Wasserman characterizes the current gerrymandering efforts as a "nuclear arms race" aimed at securing House majority amidst a precarious political landscape.

[03:22] Ari Shapiro: "Fights over congressional maps never used to be this intense... David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has called this a nuclear arms race for House control."

Wasserman elaborates on the term, explaining that with the House margins extremely narrow, both parties are aggressively seeking every possible advantage across various states.

[03:51] Dave Wasserman: "Given the margin in the House, which is it couldn't be hardly any tighter than it is. Every party is clawing for every advantage that they can get from state to state."

He underscores the interconnectedness of state-level redistricting battles, noting that actions in Texas are just the beginning of a nationwide struggle to influence congressional representation.

Strategies and Potential Retaliations

The conversation progresses to discuss potential retaliatory measures, particularly from Democratic strongholds like California. Governor Gavin Newsom has hinted at ballot initiatives that could counteract Republican gerrymandering efforts, though opportunities for such actions are limited outside a few key states.

[04:27] Dave Wasserman: "California, under Governor Gavin Newsom, is threatening to retaliate by setting up an amendment, a ballot initiative that voters could approve this fall."

Despite these aggressive tactics, Wasserman remains cautiously optimistic about Democrats' prospects in the 2026 elections, citing historical trends and current political dynamics that could still favor a Democratic resurgence.

[04:14] Dave Wasserman: "What we know, though, is that Democrats will still have a chance to win control of the House in 2026, even if Republicans add three to five additional seats in Texas, two in Ohio..."

The Future of Redistricting Reforms

A critical point of discussion revolves around the future of independent redistricting commissions. Historically, blue states have championed these reforms to promote fairness and reduce partisan bias. However, the current climate has forced Democrats to reconsider these protections in favor of more immediate electoral gains.

[05:35] Dave Wasserman: "Predominantly, it was blue states that embraced redistricting reform in the last few decades and implemented an independent and bipartisan commissions."

This shift indicates a strategic pivot, where maximizing electoral advantages takes precedence over long-established reform measures, potentially undermining efforts to create impartial district maps.

Challenges and the Role of the Judiciary

The episode also touches upon the limitations imposed by the judiciary on addressing partisan gerrymandering. The Supreme Court has effectively stymied federal legal challenges by declaring gerrymandering a political issue without clear standards for adjudication.

[07:45] Dave Wasserman: "The Supreme Court has ruled that partisan gerrymandering claims can't be brought in federal courts because it is fundamentally a political matter and there's no clear standard for what constitutes gerrymandering or not."

This judicial stance has emboldened partisan mapmakers, further entrenching the gerrymandering "arms race" as both parties seek to exploit loopholes within diverse state-specific redistricting laws.

Conclusion: A Grim Outlook or a Path Forward?

As the episode draws to a close, Wasserman emphasizes the complexity and variability of redistricting efforts across different states, suggesting that while the battle is intense, it is not uniform or unmanageable. The future hinges on state-level decisions and voter responses to aggressive gerrymandering tactics.

[08:22] Dave Wasserman: "Well, we'll be watching to see how several of these states shake out... when it is framed in terms of taking the fight to Donald Trump, California voters will probably get behind that..."

Ari Shapiro wraps up the discussion by acknowledging the high stakes involved and the profound impact these battles over district maps will have on the balance of power in upcoming elections.

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Key Takeaways:

• Partisan Gerrymandering as a Strategic Weapon: Both Republicans and Democrats are employing aggressive redistricting strategies to gain electoral advantages, likened to a "nuclear arms race."

• State-Level Maneuvering: The tug-of-war over district maps is playing out primarily at the state level, with significant actions in Texas and potential retaliations in states like California and New York.

• Erosion of Independent Redistricting Commissions: Traditional safeguards against partisan map-drawing are being reconsidered or dismantled in response to the pressures of electoral competition.

• Judicial Limitations: The Supreme Court's stance on gerrymandering as a non-justiciable political issue has limited federal oversight, empowering state-level partisans.

• Future Electoral Implications: The outcomes of these redistricting battles will have substantial ramifications for the control of the U.S. House of Representatives in future elections, particularly in 2026.

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This episode of "Consider This" provides a comprehensive examination of the current state of gerrymandering in American politics, highlighting the critical and contentious nature of redistricting in shaping the nation's legislative landscape.

Transcript

[Ari Shapiro]

President Trump is quite explicit about what's happening in Texas. Just a very simple redrawing. We pick up five seats. The we here is Republicans, and he's talking about gerrymandering. He wants Republicans in the Texas legislature to redraw the state's congressional district so that they're more favorable to Republicans. And when he talked to reporters about this a few weeks ago, Trump suggested that Texas was just the beginning and.

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There could be some other states.

[Ari Shapiro]

We're going to get another three or four or five. In addition, Trump can be this transparent because there are no federal restrictions on redrawing districts for purely partisan gain. The Supreme Court said so in 2019. And district boundaries have enormous consequences. These five seats could easily decide which party controls the House in 2026. So Democrats are playing every card they have at the state level. Texas Democrats have fled the state in an effort to block the vote here. Here's State Representative Gina Hinojosa talking to NPR on Monday.

[Gina Hinojosa]

It is undemocratic. It is anti the foundations of our country, and it is extreme and harmful to our constituents. So we will do everything in our power to fight it.

[Ari Shapiro]

You can hear there an appeal for fairness. Democrats in other states are also fighting the Texas plan, but they're using the language of power.

[Kathy Hochul]

I'm tired of fighting this fight with my hand tied behind my back. With all due respect to the good government groups, politics is a political process.

[Ari Shapiro]

That's New York Governor Kathy Hochul speaking on Monday. She said she supports disbanding or changing her state's independent redistricting commission. It's meant to ensure congressional maps are drawn fairly.

[Kathy Hochul]

Other states don't have the same aspirations that we always have had, and I hold those dear. But I cannot ignore that this. The playing field has changed dramatically. And shame on us if we ignore that fact and cling tight to the vestiges of the past. That era is over. Donald Trump eliminated that forever.

[Ari Shapiro]

Consider this. Gerrymandering has been part of US Politics for hundreds of years. How did it become a blood sport? From npr, I'm Ari Shapiro.

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[Ari Shapiro]

It's Consider this from NPR Fights over congressional maps never used to be this intense. Texas Republicans just voted to issue civil arrest warrants for Democrats who fled the state. The GOP is trying to redraw House districts, and Democratic governors say they might follow the same path. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has called this a nuclear arms race for House control. Good. Good to have you here.

[Dave Wasserman]

Thanks for having me.

[Ari Shapiro]

So start with that phrase nuclear arms race. What do you mean by that?

[Dave Wasserman]

Well, given the margin in the House, which is it couldn't be hardly any tighter than it is. Every party is clawing for every advantage that they can get from state to state. And Republicans, knowing that 2026 could be a tough year, are trying to layer sandbags to protect their House majority from a rising blue swell.

[Ari Shapiro]

So obviously Texas alone, if it gives Republicans 5 extra SE, could determine control of the House. But if this is a nuclear arms race that does ripple out to lots of other states, what could the overall impact be?

[Dave Wasserman]

It depends on how each state shakes out. And it would seem as if the logical endpoint of this arms race would be the eradication of red state Democrats and blue state Republicans. California, under Governor Gavin Newsom, is threatening to retaliate by setting up an amendment, a ballot initiative that voters could approve this fall. There are very limited opportunities for Democrats to retaliate in other states beyond California. What we know, though, is that Democrats will still have a chance to win control of the House in 2026, even if Republicans add three to five additional seats in Texas, two in Ohio, given the president's low approval rating and what we know historically about midterm elections.

[Ari Shapiro]

You mentioned that California has an independent redistricting commission, which is supposed to avoid partisan gerrymandering. New York has a similar commission, which Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is talking about possibly getting rid of. What happened to the movement to make this an independent, nonpartisan process?

[Dave Wasserman]

Predominantly, it was blue states that embraced redistricting reform in the last few decades and implemented an independent and bipartisan commissions. What Democrats have realized is that they are playing with one hand tied behind their back, particularly when Texas is willing to attempt something this brazen. Of course, given how few competitive seats there are in across the country Democrats, they really have no choice but to try and retaliate to squeeze the maximal number of seats out of the states that they control. And that means trying to step on some of the reforms that voters have approved.

[Ari Shapiro]

So do you think this nuclear arms race for House control is inevitably just gonna keep barreling forward, or is there any chance of an off ramp or a truce or some kind of pause in the arms race?

[Dave Wasserman]

One of the reasons why it's not as simple as every state just pursuing a maximal gerrymander is that the criteria and the provisions for redrawing boundaries vary a lot from state to state. Each state has its unique redistricting culture, and both parties are seeking to get around provisions that are designed to ensure compactness or the integrity of communities of interest in order to offset what the other party is doing. We haven't even talked about Florida, where it's possible Republicans could increase their advantage over what they were able to pass in 2022 if Governor DeSantis were to pursue that. But overall, the U.S. supreme Court and Congress have failed to rein in gerrymandering. The Supreme Court has ruled that partisan gerrymandering claims can't be brought in federal courts because it is fundamentally a political matter and there's no clear standard for what constitutes gerrymandering or not. And the power of the cartographers, the line drawers who are partisans in most cases, has only been magnified by American voters self sorting into heavily red and blue communities. And when Americans increasingly live in places where they're surrounded by people who share their political and cultural values, it's easier for partisan mapmakers to then segregate them into heavily red or blue districts to achieve their partisan aims.

[Ari Shapiro]

So what are you looking for in the next few months as we lead up towards the 2026 election season?

[Dave Wasserman]

Well, we'll be watching to see how several of these states shake out. It's probable that Texas Republicans are going to get their way at the end of the day. And the question then becomes, do Governor Newsom and Democrats in California retaliate? Are they able to convince voters to set aside the reform that they overwhelmingly passed in 2010 to go after what Republicans in Texas and what President Trump are seeking to do to protect their House majority? And when it is framed in terms of taking the fight to Donald Trump, California voters will probably get behind that, even though they have concerns that they've expressed at the polls in the past about aggressive partisan gerrymandering.

[Ari Shapiro]

That's Dave Wasserman, senior editor and political analyst for the Cook Political Report. Thanks so much.

[Dave Wasserman]

Thanks, Ari.

[Ari Shapiro]

This episode was produced by Mallory Yu and Connor Donovan. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Ari Shapiro.

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