Scott Detrow (2:16)

Oil prices spiked on Monday when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to fire on ships. Here's energy analyst John Kilduff of Again, Capital.

Domenico Montanaro (2:25)

So this is becoming a very much a real supply problem for this market in real time. Like a slow motion traffic accident come into fruition here.

Juana Summers (2:34)

The war strained relations between the United States and its Western allies.

Domenico Montanaro (2:39)

These operations were conducted outside of international law, which we cannot condone.

Juana Summers (2:43)

That was France's President Emmanuel Macron. Other European countries, like Germany, struck a more conciliatory tone.

Domenico Montanaro (2:50)

Spain has been very, very uncooperative, and

Scott Detrow (2:54)

so has UK Trump blasted the two countries when they refused to let US Troops use military bases in their countries to attack Iran. Spain held firm. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer eventually allowed use of its bases for defensive purposes. Still, he made an impassioned speech in Parliament saying Britain does not believe in regime change from the skies.

Domenico Montanaro (3:15)

We all remember the mistakes of Iraq and we have learned those lessons.

Juana Summers (3:21)

By Wednesday, the conflict spread even further. A US Submarine sunk an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean off Sri Lanka carrying about 180 people. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth it was sunk by a torpedo.

Domenico Montanaro (3:34)

Quiet death, the first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II.

Juana Summers (3:39)

The strike set off ripples of anxiety across South Asia. Sashant Singh, a former Indian military officer, worries the strike will test Chinese dominance over the Indian Ocean.

Sponsor Voice (3:49)

If the US Navy is doing this here, it really sends a signal which the Chinese are likely to take more seriously.

Scott Detrow (3:56)

On Thursday, more fronts opened. An Iranian drone struck an airport in Azerbaijan. A US ally and NATO intercepted a missile headed for Turkey. Secretary Hegseth warned yesterday the war will only expand in the coming days.

Domenico Montanaro (4:10)

The amount of firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically.

Scott Detrow (4:15)

President Trump says there will be no deal except, in his words, unconditional surrender. Consider this. For the past week, Israeli and US Bombs have devastated Iran and the conflict has widened to include multiple countries in the Gulf.

Juana Summers (4:32)

How is the conflict reshaping the world order and impacting Trump's popularity here in the United States? From npr, I'm Juana Summers.

Scott Detrow (4:43)

And I'm Scott Detrow.

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Juana Summers (5:23)

It's consider this from npr. It didn't take long for the Iran war to spill over into the wider region. I spoke to NPR's diplomatic correspondent Michelle about how allies are viewing the widening conflict. Michelle, the Trump administration says its airstrikes are only just picking up steam. They say this will degrade Iran's ability to threaten the region. But most countries have faced Iranian drones and missile strikes. Will they be drawn into this fight?

Michelle Kellerman (5:46)

Well, that's really a big concern and why some are calling for de escalation now. That includes the UN's top humanitarian official, Tom Fletcher he calls this a perilous moment. He says about a billion dollars a day are being spent on this war. And he's worried about what he calls an increase, increasingly deadly alliance of technology and killing.

Sponsor Voice (6:07)

We're seeing a sustained attack against the systems and laws meant to restrain us from our worst instincts and from reckless warfare. So too many warning lights are flashing on the dashboard right now.

Michelle Kellerman (6:21)

And he's also worried this could have ripple effects on markets and supply chains, which would have a devastating impact on the world's poorest people.

Juana Summers (6:29)

What are world leaders and diplomats doing to keep this from escalating further?

Michelle Kellerman (6:32)

Yeah, I mean, the UN's topsorry. The European Union's top diplomat, Kaya Kallas, met this week with counterparts from the Gulf states, and she says they're talking about what they can do to promote stability. And she says everyone's worried about what comes next inside Iran. Take a listen. Every time when, you know, we have seen these wars before in the Middle east, we have also seen that it doesn't go that easy, that, you know, one day there's war and the next day there's democracy. So clearly the risks are there, and she means the risks of civil war. She's also worried about air defenses in the Gulf. And you know, it's interesting, Juana, because Ukraine is actually offering Gulf states some help because it has experience in dealing with Iranian drone technology used by Russia.

Juana Summers (7:19)

And speaking of Russia, Michelle, the Washington Post is reporting that Russia has helped the Iranians with intelligence for its targets, and that's something that NPR has now been able to independently confirm. What role has Russia been playing so far?

Michelle Kellerman (7:32)

Well, it's called for the us and it called the US and Israeli actions a violation of international law. China has, too, but neither of them are really offering overt military support to Iran. They're both members of the BRICS group, which includes Iran. And, you know, India's in that, too. But India's been pretty silent so far, even after the US torpedoed that Iranian ship in the Indian Ocean. And that ship was there, Juana, at the invitation of India, it had participated in a multination naval drill that was hosted by the Indian Navy.

Juana Summers (8:07)

President Trump has said that after Iran's surrender, his words, allies and partners, will bring Iran back from the brink. But from your point of view, will he have willing partners to do that?

Michelle Kellerman (8:17)

Well, we'll have to see. I mean, I will point out that it was just a couple of weeks ago that Trump brought together what he's calling this board of Peace to rebuild Gaza and raise money for that. Indonesia now says that it's paused its talks with the board, though the State Department insists that Indonesia is still a member. It's really a key country because it's one of the few countries willing to offer troops for a stabilization force. So we'll have to see if it continues with that.

Juana Summers (8:45)

Michelle Kellerman at the State Department, thank you.

Michelle Kellerman (8:47)

Thank you.

Scott Detrow (8:52)

How are Americans feeling about the war? That's something I discussed with NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. He joined me to talk through the results of a new NPR PBS News Marist poll. So what did we learn about how people feel about this war?

Domenico Montanaro (9:06)

A majority are against the military action. You know, 56% said that they oppose. And that's of the almost 1600 people that Marist surveyed this week. And like we've seen in other polls, Democrats and independents are largely aligned. Almost 9 in 10 Democrats and 61% of independents are against the war, but Republicans heavily in support, 84% say that they're in favor.

Scott Detrow (9:29)

That's interesting because so much has been made of the various MAGA influencers who are not so supportive of this war.

Domenico Montanaro (9:35)

Yeah, I mean, there's gonna be those voices. But like on so many other highly controversial things that President Trump has done, the overwhelming majority of Republicans are strongly in his corner and are likely gonna continue to be there for lots of reasons.

Scott Detrow (9:47)

So a big divide by political party, which, like you said before, is the story of the last decade. Were there any other notable divides here?

Domenico Montanaro (9:54)

Yeah. Young, 18 to 29 years old were the most likely of any age group to be against the military action. Almost two thirds say that there were also notable divides by education, gender, and race. For example, whites with degrees heavily opposed the action, while whites without degrees, a slight majority is in favor. When it comes to men and women, men are far more likely to support it. And on race, those who are black and Latino were more likely to be against the action than whites were.

Scott Detrow (10:20)

What about President Trump? How are people viewing the way that he is handling this?

Domenico Montanaro (10:24)

Yeah, he gets just a 36% approval rating when it comes to this war. That mirrors Trump's overall approval rating on foreign policy from our last poll last month. It's also worse than when we asked about his handling of Iran after the killing of the Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani back in January 2020. Then about 42% approved. Not great, but still higher. We also see, again, some of the same divides. Democrats and independents heavily disapproving, while eight and 10 Republicans in Trump's corner.

Scott Detrow (10:53)

Let's take a step back. A big part of the justification for this war from Trump and others is that Iran is a huge threat to the United States. How much do Americans feel that way?

Domenico Montanaro (11:03)

Yeah, a majority, 55%, sees Iran as only a minor threat or no threat at all. 44% do see it as a major threat, and that's four points lower, actually, than last summer. Those who see Iran as a major threat are mostly Republicans, white evangelical Christians, white women without college degrees, those who live in rural areas, and people who are 45 to 59 years old, those least likely to see it as a major threat, white women with college degrees, people who live in the Northeast, white college graduates and millennials. We're seeing a real schism about just how heavily Americans feel the threat of Iran looms over American society. And the Trump administration has really been shifting its rationales for the threat that Iran poses or what the triggering event was to start this war in the first place. You know, Trump continues to face a skeptical American public on many of his policies while people are continuing to say the economy is their top concern, that Trump isn't focused enough on it. And today we saw losses in the jobs report, and there have been now five monthly jobs reports that have shown losses in the past year when there had been four straight years of job increases before that dating back to the pandemic.

Scott Detrow (12:11)

NPR's Domenico Montanaro, thank you so much.

Domenico Montanaro (12:13)

You got it.

Scott Detrow (12:15)

This episode was produced by Connor Donovan, Alaina Burnett, Alejandra Marquez Honza and Erica Ryan, with audio engineering by Ted Mebane.

Juana Summers (12:22)

It was edited by Barry Hardiman, Tara Ne, Dana Farrington, Jeanette woods and Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun.

Scott Detrow (12:30)

And before we go, thank you to our Consider this plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors and unlock bonus episodes of Consider this. You can Learn more at plus.NPR.org it's consider this from the NPR I'm Scott Detrow.

Juana Summers (12:52)

And I'm Juana Summers.

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