How Pakistan emerged as a key negotiator in the Iran war

Summary

Podcast Summary: Consider This from NPR

Episode: How Pakistan emerged as a key negotiator in the Iran war

Date: April 9, 2026
Host: Juana Summers
Guest: Elizabeth Threlkeld, Senior Fellow & Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center

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Main Theme

This episode explores how Pakistan, traditionally on the diplomatic sidelines, has emerged as a central broker in halting the war between the US and Iran. Host Juana Summers invites South Asia expert Elizabeth Threlkeld to break down the geopolitical context, Pakistan's motivations, and the implications of these historic negotiations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The World on Edge: Trump’s Threat and the Critical Pause

• President Trump threatened catastrophic escalation against Iran, posting a chilling ultimatum on Truth Social:

  "'a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.'" (Juana Summers, 00:07)

• Hours before the deadline, he agreed to pause strikes for two weeks in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz (00:17).
• Main Insight: The crisis had poised the world for a dramatic escalation, highlighting the need for urgent, creative diplomacy.

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2. Pakistan’s Sudden Diplomatic Ascendancy

• Pakistan’s Key Broker Role

  "Pakistan just bringing these talks together. In some ways, that's already a victory for Pakistan because it succeeded in playing this role." (Elizabeth Threlkeld, 00:27)

  • Hosting the US and Iranian leaders for unprecedented peace talks.
  • Transitioned from being kept at a distance by previous US administrations to holding central influence (02:33).

• Complex Alliances & Balancing Act

  • Borders Iran; houses the world’s second-largest Shia Muslim population.
  • Strong defense ties with Saudi Arabia and a renewed relationship with Washington under Trump’s second term.
  • Maintains robust relations with China.
  • Has been quietly shuttling messages among all sides: US, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China.

  "Pakistan... played a quiet and helpful role in trying to pass messages among all of those sides, and particularly the US and Iran. And in this case, it really has managed to walk a very difficult tightrope..." (Elizabeth Threlkeld, 03:10)

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3. Why Pakistan Wants Peace—And What It Stands to Gain

• Immediate Motivations:

  • Vulnerable to energy shortages, inflation, food insecurity, and fertilizer shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Risk of conflict spillover from neighboring Iran.
  • Dependent on remittances from guest workers in the Middle East.

  "Pakistan is desperate for an end to this conflict. It is hugely exposed to the energy supply shortages, risks of inflation, food insecurity... It neighbors Iran." (Elizabeth Threlkeld, 04:16)

• Geopolitical Ambitions:

  • Seeking to revive and elevate its international status, especially after US disengagement post-Afghanistan (2021).
  • The diplomatic success itself boosts Pakistan’s reputation as a ‘middle power’:

    "In some ways, that's already a victory for Pakistan because it succeeded in playing this role." (Elizabeth Threlkeld, 04:44)

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4. The Road Ahead: Advice for US Vice President & Structural Challenges

• Talks in Islamabad are likely just the beginning; expectations must be managed.
• Threlkeld’s advice for VP J.D. Vance:

  "What is the immediate solution... that would allow for momentum to be built for hopefully a reopening of the strait, but also to set both sides up for a workable process going forward." (Elizabeth Threlkeld, 05:42)

• Peace process will be prolonged and complicated.

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5. Domestic Pressures & Security Concerns in Pakistan

• Pakistan’s Shia population was outraged by the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader at the war’s outset.
• Security for US delegation will be a major concern:

  "Absolutely... top of mind for Pakistan's security forces... will be ensuring that there is security for these negotiations, and that comes from the threat from groups... like the Pakistani Taliban or ISIS K that are active." (Elizabeth Threlkeld, 06:26)

• Significant protests and fatalities initially, but subsequent government crackdown restored calm.

  "Pakistan worked quickly to bring those protests under control... since then, we really haven't seen any significant domestic unrest..." (Elizabeth Threlkeld, 06:26)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Pakistan just bringing these talks together. In some ways, that's already a victory for Pakistan because it succeeded in playing this role."
  — Elizabeth Threlkeld (00:27)

• "Pakistan is desperate for an end to this conflict. It is hugely exposed to the energy supply shortages, risks of inflation, food insecurity..."
  — Elizabeth Threlkeld (04:16)

• "This is going to be a relatively longer term process. And so what is the immediate solution that perhaps might be able to come out of these negotiations that would allow for momentum to be built..."
  — Elizabeth Threlkeld (05:42)

• "Pakistan worked quickly to bring those protests under control. And since that initial outbreak of protests, we really haven't seen significant domestic unrest within Pakistan."
  — Elizabeth Threlkeld (06:26)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:07 — President Trump’s threat, global tension
• 00:27–00:44 — Pakistan’s diplomatic role recognized
• 02:33 — Why Pakistan is hosting the talks
• 03:10–04:12 — How Pakistan positioned itself as a mediator
• 04:16–04:44 — What Pakistan hopes to gain
• 05:34–05:42 — Advice for US Vice President
• 06:13–07:25 — Security concerns and domestic situation

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Summary Conclusion

This episode traces Pakistan’s remarkable transformation from diplomatic outsider to essential peacemaker in the US-Iran conflict. Driven by both urgent economic vulnerabilities and a longing to reclaim international stature, Pakistan is now at the center of efforts to avert wider war. The talks in Islamabad mark a turning point, but as Elizabeth Threlkeld cautions, much depends on careful, realistic next steps—and ensuring safety amid domestic volatility. The world is watching as Pakistan tests its emerging role on the world stage.

Transcript

[Juana Summers]

Earlier this week, the world held its breath as President Trump threatened a severe escalation in the war with Iran. He posted to Truth Social on Tuesday, giving an 8pm deadline, a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. With just hours to go, he backed off.

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President Trump today has agreed to pause strikes for two weeks in exchange for Tehran reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz.

[Juana Summers]

One country was key to brokering the deal.

[Elizabeth Threlkeld]

Pakistan just bringing these talks together. In some ways, that's already a victory for Pakistan because it succeeded in playing this role.

[Juana Summers]

Elizabeth Threlkeld worked for the U.S. state Department in Pakistan, and she says the Pakistani government has a lot to gain by hosting these talks.

[Elizabeth Threlkeld]

Pakistan would benefit in terms of its international reputation, its positioning as a middle power, and one with increasingly influential ties within the Middle East.

[Juana Summers]

Consider this Pakistan has emerged as a key player in bringing Iran and the US to the negotiating table. But will that be enough to bring peace? From npr, I'm Juana Summers.

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[Juana Summers]

It's Consider this from npr. Pakistan is scheduled to host US And Iranian leaders this weekend with the goal of brokering a lasting peace agreement. It's an unusual role for the country that had been kept at arm's length by previous administrations. So how did Pakistan become the mediator in war? For that, we've called Elizabeth Threlkeld. She's a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Stemson Center. That's a nonpartisan global affairs think tank. She also spent time as a Foreign Service officer in Pakistan. I started by asking her how Pakistan managed to bring Iran and the US to the negotiating table.

[Elizabeth Threlkeld]

Pakistan borders Iran, and they've had a bit of a testy relationship over time. Pakistan is home to the second largest population of Shia Muslims in the world, and it also has strong ties with Saudi Arabia. They have a mutual defense agreement. Pakistan has rebooted its relationship with Washington over the course of the last year with the second Trump administration, and it also has a strong relationship with China. And so over the course of the conflict, and indeed, even before this conflict began, Pakistan had played a quiet and helpful role in trying to pass messages among all of those sides, and particularly the US In Iran. And in this case, it really has managed to walk a very difficult tightrope in bringing these talks together. And I think at a moment when it had a lot on the line in terms of its own liabilities in this conflict, given its exposure, what do

[Juana Summers]

you think that Pakistan is looking to gain here?

[Elizabeth Threlkeld]

So I think there are two separate tracks. One is Pakistan is desperate for an end to this conflict. It is hugely exposed to the energy supply shortages, risks of inflation, food insecurity, fertilizer shortages, given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz it neighbors Iran. And so there is some risk of conflict spillover. And it's also hugely dependent on its guest worker population in the Middle east to send back remittances for its economy. And so simply being able to bring an end to the conflict itself will greatly benefit Pakistan if the ceasefire holds. But I think there's also a geopolitical element here where Pakistan has not been as much of a player in recent years, especially following the 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Biden administration was very reluctant to engage Pakistan. And Pakistan has, has very deftly managed to rebuild its relations with President Trump in his second term. And in some ways, that's already a victory for Pakistan because it succeeded in playing this role.

[Juana Summers]

U.S. vice President J.D. vance will be attending the talks in Islamabad. If you could advise him on one thing to keep in mind. What would it be?

[Elizabeth Threlkeld]

My sense is that this is going to be a relatively longer term process. And so what is the immediate solution that perhaps might be able to come out of these negotiations that would allow for momentum to be built for hopefully a reopening of the strait, but also to set both sides up for a workable process going forward. And as ever, that is going to be the challenge for the two sides.

[Juana Summers]

Pakistan's Shia population was outraged by the killing of the Iranian supreme leader at the beginning of the war, and he was a revered figure in the wider Shia community. Do you think there will be heightened security for the US Delegation?

[Elizabeth Threlkeld]

Absolutely. I think top of mind for Pakistan's security forces and its leaders will be ensuring that there is security for these negotiations, and that comes from the threat from groups, for example, like the Pakistani Taliban or ISIS k that are active. It's also certainly you alluded to the protests that we saw following the outbreak of this conflict with US And Israeli strikes. Pakistan worked quickly to bring those protests under control. And since that initial outbreak of protests, we really haven't seen significant domestic unrest within Pakistan. Those were significant protests and unfortunately, there were fatalities across the country, including outside the U.S. consulate in Karachi. But since then, we really haven't seen any significant domestic protest activity.

[Juana Summers]

We've been speaking with Elizabeth Threld. She's a senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Stemson Center. Thank you.

[Elizabeth Threlkeld]

Thank you.

[Juana Summers]

This episode was produced by Jeffrey Pierre and Tyler Bartlam. It was edited by 10 beat Eric. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Juana Summers.

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