How Trump's foreign policy is reshaping the world order

Summary

Summary of NPR’s Consider This Episode: "How Trump's Foreign Policy is Reshaping the World Order"

Release Date: March 4, 2025

In this episode of NPR's Consider This, host Ari Shapiro delves into the profound impact of former President Donald Trump's foreign policy on the existing global order. Through insightful discussions with experts and notable quotes, the episode unpacks the complexities of U.S. alliances, Russia's strategic maneuvers, and the shifting dynamics in international relations.

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1. Vladimir Putin’s Strategic Long Game

[00:00] Ari Shapiro opens the discussion by highlighting Vladimir Putin's extended tenure as Russia's president, emphasizing his ability to "play the long game."

[00:08] Nina Krushcheva, a Professor of International Affairs at the New School and great granddaughter of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, elaborates on Putin's patience:
"He waits. He's very carefully waiting for things to break down."

This strategic patience is underscored by recent events where Putin anticipated and facilitated disruptions within Western alliances.

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2. Tensions Between the U.S. and Ukraine

The episode recounts a pivotal Oval Office meeting involving [00:28] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, [00:29] President Donald Trump, and [00:29] Vice President J.D. Vance. Zelensky asserts the critical nature of U.S. military support:
"If you didn't have our military equipment, this war would have been over in two weeks. In three days. I heard it from Putin. In three days." [00:36]

[01:07] Ari Shapiro explains that Zelensky's visit aimed to secure security guarantees through a mineral rights deal with the U.S., which fell apart following Trump's unexpected comments, leading to a pause in U.S. military aid to Ukraine.

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3. U.S.-EU Relations Under Strain

During the same period, tensions extended beyond Ukraine. At [01:42], Zelensky critically remarks on the European Union:
"The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That's the purpose of it. And they've done a good job of it. But now I'm president." [01:50]

In response, [01:50] Ari Shapiro notes Trump's imposition of 25% tariffs on EU imports, positioning these actions as efforts to realign foreign policy with American interests. However, this move has sown discord among U.S. allies, which [02:15] Nina Krushcheva observes:
"It does seem that it's a great dream of any KGB operative to see the west unraveling this way without even having to lift a finger in this particular moment."

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4. The Decline of the U.S.-Led World Order

[04:03] Ari Shapiro transitions to broader geopolitical implications, questioning the sustainability of the U.S.-led order that has dominated global politics for decades.

[05:30] Donald Trump argues that while encouraging allies to take more responsibility for global security is strategic, the abruptness of this shift poses significant risks:
"This is much more of a switch than a dial. And the danger is that you have opportunities where adversaries see the reason to attack." [05:30]

He contends that without robust U.S. support, European defenses remain insufficient to deter Russian aggression, potentially prolonging conflict in Ukraine.

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5. Potential Consequences of U.S. Withdrawal

[06:15] Ari Shapiro probes whether Europe can independently secure peace without U.S. leadership. [06:21] Donald Trump responds skeptically:
"The Europeans can only do so much. They don't have the defense industries, they don't have the large inventories to transfer." [06:21]

Trump warns that reduced U.S. involvement may embolden Russia to make further advances in Ukraine, diminishing incentives for Putin to negotiate a ceasefire.

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6. Redefining Allies and Adversaries

At [08:15] Ari Shapiro raises questions about the current state of U.S. alliances since the end of World War II. [08:41] Donald Trump bluntly assesses the situation:
"To put it bluntly, the post war order is on life support." [08:41]

He expresses concern over the dismantling of established alliances without presenting a viable replacement, fearing a descent into a more fragmented and conflict-prone world.

Trump further explains the shifting perception of allies:
"Allies have lost under this administration their special place. The fact that they are dependent on us for security... in many ways has become something of a liability." [10:22]

This shift encourages allies to seek alternative partnerships and bolster their own defenses, potentially leading to increased global instability.

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7. The Future of Global Order Post-Trump

[11:20] Donald Trump reflects on the administration's departure from traditional conservative policies, describing it as "far more radical" and highlighting the lack of a structured replacement for the existing global order:
"It seems to be a world, if you will, without structure, without permanent relationships." [11:20]

He emphasizes the risks associated with this unstructured approach, predicting a world characterized by greater disorder and increased opportunities for adversarial actions by nations like China and Russia.

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with a sobering analysis of how Trump's foreign policy decisions are destabilizing long-standing international alliances and potentially paving the way for increased global conflict. By challenging the U.S.-led order without offering substantial alternatives, Trump's administration has introduced significant uncertainty into the realm of international relations, with far-reaching implications for global peace and stability.

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Key Takeaways:

• Putin's Long-Term Strategy: Russia is capitalizing on internal divisions within the West, patiently waiting for alliances to weaken.

• U.S.-Ukraine Relations: Trump's pause on military aid has critical implications for Ukraine's ability to negotiate from a position of strength.

• Strained Alliances: U.S. tariffs and shifting foreign policies are eroding trust and cooperation with traditional allies in the EU and beyond.

• Declining U.S.-Led Order: The dismantling of established international frameworks without viable replacements risks plunging the world into greater instability.

• Future Uncertainties: The redefinition of alliances and adversaries under Trump's policies may lead to increased global conflicts and reduced prosperity.

This comprehensive analysis underscores the transformative and contentious nature of Trump's foreign policy, highlighting its role in reshaping the global landscape and challenging the foundations of post-World War II international order.

Transcript

[Ari Shapiro]

Vladimir Putin's tenure as president of Russia is now measured in decades, not just years. That means he can play the long game.

[Nina Krushcheva]

He waits. He's very carefully waiting for things to break down.

[Ari Shapiro]

That's Nina Krushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School, also the great granddaughter of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. And sure enough, Putin got exactly the sort of breakdown he was waiting for on Friday.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

Your country is in big trouble.

[Donald Trump]

I know.

[Ari Shapiro]

At that Oval office meeting between US President Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

If you didn't have our military equipment, this war would have been over in two weeks. In three days. I heard it from Putin. In three days. This is something maybe less in two weeks.

[Donald Trump]

Of course, yes.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

It's going to be a very hard thing to do, business like this.

[Nina Krushcheva]

Kremlin didn't even have to do anything this time around. And the west is being suddenly ripped apart. And Zelensky, the Kremlin obviously doesn't like and thinks an enemy is being berated by the United States, by Donald Trump, who the Kremlin does like.

[Ari Shapiro]

Zelenskyy was at the White House to sign over mineral rights to the U.S. a deal that Ukraine hoped would help it get security guarantees in a future peace deal with Russia. That blow up put the signing on hold. And on Monday, the White House said it was pausing US Military aid to Ukraine. Speaking on background, a White House official said, quote, the president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. All this looks like a major step back from a US Ally. And it's not the only one. At another White House meeting last week, Trump said this about the eu.

[Volodymyr Zelensky]

The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That's the purpose of it. And they've done a good job of it. But now I'm president.

[Ari Shapiro]

He's threatening tariffs on EU imports. And Trump has already put 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. Those snapped into place early Tuesday. Trump argues these moves are about aligning foreign policy with American interests. But tension in relationships between the US and allies also appears to be in Russia's interests. The Kremlin is ecstatic, says Krushcheva.

[Nina Krushcheva]

It does seem that it's a great dream of any KGB operative to see the west unraveling this way without even having to lift a finger in this particular moment.

[Ari Shapiro]

Consider Trump is upending the US Led order that has dominated global politics for the better part of a century. What does that mean for Ukraine and for America? From npr, I'm Ari Shapiro.

[Scott Detrow]

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[Ari Shapiro]

It'S consider this from NPR after the Trump Zelensky blow up on Friday, European leaders held emergency talks in London to put together a roadmap to peace. Here's British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

[Donald Trump]

Our starting point must be to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position now so that they can negotiate from a position of strength. And we are doubling down in our support.

[Ari Shapiro]

And on Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a proposal called Rearm Europe.

[Donald Trump]

I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face.

[Ari Shapiro]

The roughly $840 billion plan would quickly build up defense budgets in Europe.

[Donald Trump]

With this equipment, member states can massively step up their support to Ukraine.

[Ari Shapiro]

Meanwhile, the US Seems to continue to align itself with Russia to discuss where things go and what this means for US Alliances. I spoke with Richard Haass hours before the US Paused military aid to Ukraine. He's the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and has served in diplomatic roles in Republican presidential administrations. You know, President Trump's been saying for almost a decade, since his first run for office, that the rest of the world should take more responsibility for global security. Whatever you may think of his tactics, is he succeeding at least at getting American allies to do more?

[Donald Trump]

He might be, but at enormous cost. It's one thing to say the rest of the world needs to do more and let's plan, say, a 10 year transition which is orderly, where we dial up the rest of the world and say, dial down the United States so our foes are not encouraged and so our allies are not unnerved. But this is not that. This is much more of a switch than a dial. And the danger is that you have opportunities where adversaries see the reason to attack. You see some of our friends saying either we have to appease a powerful neighbor, or maybe we need nuclear weapons of our own. So there's a chance that some good will come of this. I don't deny that the Europeans might actually do more, and they should do more with their conventional military forces. But this is highly disruptive and comes at great risk.

[Ari Shapiro]

Do you think the Europeans can figure out how to end this war without US Leadership?

[Donald Trump]

Extraordinarily difficult. The Europeans can only do so much. They don't have the defense industries, they don't have the large inventories to transfer. But Ukraine can hold on. The problem is, without the United States supporting Ukraine, it's quite probable that Vladimir Putin will not have the incentive to compromise, to accept a ceasefire, except on terms that are quite draconian.

[Ari Shapiro]

Oh, so you're saying Russia could make real advances in Ukraine if the US Pulls back, and that would disincentivize any kind of peace talks.

[Donald Trump]

Right, and that's what's missing. I don't understand about the president's approach. He says he wants to be a peacemaker here. Well, the best way to get a peace is to persuade Vladimir Putin that the United States and the west will stand by Ukraine. So continued war by Russia will not lead Mr. Putin to anything that resembles success. We've done just the opposite. So Vladimir Putin sitting in the Kremlin going, why should I compromise?

[Ari Shapiro]

What about the argument that Trump is effectively saying the quiet part out loud that Ukraine cannot win this war, even with US Support, so it's time to just bring the conflict to an end.

[Donald Trump]

If by win this war you mean recover all of its territory going back to 1991, you're right. And that was actually a good strategic insight of this administration that militarily recovering all Ukraine had lost in 2014 and 2022 was not realistic, and the Biden administration refused to do that. But the other way to define success is you have a ceasefire, Ukraine keeps what it has now, which is 80% of its territory, the war stops, and then you have the ability over years or decades to negotiate, and maybe you come up with a new relationship between Ukraine and, say, a Post Vladimir Putin, Russia. So again, I think there's all sorts of possibilities, but success should not be defined either as Ukraine recovering all of its territory militarily, that's a non starter, or giving Vladimir Putin everything he wants.

[Ari Shapiro]

I'd like to get your take on what the big picture set of US Alliances right now looks like. Because since the end of World War II, the globe has been more or less defined by a certain set of expectations. And those alliances seem very shaky right now. Trump last week said at his cabinet meeting that the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. To put it bluntly. Is the post war order done?

[Donald Trump]

To put it bluntly, the post war order is on life support. It's a tragedy. I've never seen this before in history. I'm used to empires or orders crumbling. I'm used to them being overwhelmed. I've never seen the side, the country that created it and maintained it, dismantling it. And that is exactly what we are doing. And what's so tragic about it is the great strategic advantage of American foreign policy is we wake up every morning and we have this pool of partners, dozens in Europe and in Asia that are willing to work with us militarily to deter conflict, to fight them if need be, willing to trade with us, invest with us, and so forth. And we are undermining that and for nothing that's necessarily good or even in any way comparable in return.

[Ari Shapiro]

Well, what's the alternative? What comes after that?

[Donald Trump]

Could be a world of much more disorder, where adversaries see opportunities. Could be a world of spheres of influence where China says, oh, we're going to do with Taiwan and others what we want, where Russia controls big parts of Europe, where the United States, consistent with some of what the President has said, seems to play a more aggressive role in the Western Hemisphere. So that's possible too. The problem is any one of those worlds has far more conflict to it, far less prosperity and far less freedom. So I just don't understand why we would trade in an approach to the world that has worked for 80 years for something that's far more risky and potentially far more costly.

[Ari Shapiro]

So we began this conversation with discussion about foes, allies, adversaries, all terms that you used. Do those terms even apply anymore?

[Donald Trump]

It's not a question I ever expected to get, but here we are. No, I think one of the things that's happened is that allies have lost under this administration their special place. The fact that they are dependent on us for security, the fact that they trade with us has actually become sources of leverage on the part of the United States. So being an ally in many ways has become something of a liability. That's why again, you'll see certain allies trying to become more self sufficient. Some may actually think they need nuclear weapons to become really safe. Others may say, wow, we have to appease a China or Russia because we can't count on the United States anymore. But no, I think you're right. The basic point is that allies of the United States no longer feel they are in an advantage position and they are going to be casting about for alternatives.

[Ari Shapiro]

You watched the Trump campaign closely. You follow foreign affairs closely. Are you surprised by this one month into the new administration?

[Donald Trump]

In a word, I'm very surprised by what I'm seeing. I followed closely President Trump's first term, which, while something of a departure, was still on the playing field. Trump 2.0 is qualitatively different. It's far more radical. I would never use the word conservative. It's the opposite of conservative because rather than conserving, it is disrupting. And we see all these alliance relationships being disrupted. We see in sometimes now an unconditional reaching out to adversaries like Russia. And what we don't see is what the president proposes to put in place of the existing order. It seems to be a world, if you will, without structure, without permanent relationships. And it's not something that was talked about during the campaign. And I think when people went to the polls, this is not what they voted for, it's not what they bargained for, but it is what they're getting.

[Ari Shapiro]

Richard Haass is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and he's author of the weekly substack newsletter Home and Away. Thank you so much.

[Donald Trump]

Thank you.

[Ari Shapiro]

This episode was produced by Matthew Cloutier, Noah Caldwell and Connor Donovan, with audio engineering by Tiffany Veracastro. It was edited by Courtney Dorning, Sarah Handel and Nadia Lancy. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's consider this from npr. I'm Ari Shapiro.

[Scott Detrow]

Hey, it's Scott Detrow, the host of Trump's Terms, a podcast where we bring you short, focused episodes about the 47th president and the biggest changes he is trying to make. A lot of those changes will be front and center during his address to a joint session of Congress on March 4th. In the days after, we will bring you stories not just about what he said, but about what is actually happening and what isn't happening. Listen to Trump's Terms from npr.

[Richard Haass]

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