In a year of global elections, what did we learn about the state of democracy?

Summary

Consider This from NPR: In a Year of Global Elections, What Did We Learn About the State of Democracy?

Release Date: December 22, 2024

In the December 22, 2024 episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Scott Detrow delves into a comprehensive analysis of the global electoral landscape over the past year. Titled "In a Year of Global Elections, What Did We Learn About the State of Democracy?", the episode explores the outcomes of major elections worldwide and examines what these results reveal about the current state of democracy amidst rising populism and institutional distrust.

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Global Electoral Overview

The year 2024 was marked by an unprecedented surge in electoral activities, with over 4 billion people—approximately half of the world's population—participating in major elections across various continents. This global electoral fervor unfolded against a backdrop of growing concerns among experts about democratic backsliding and the resilience of democratic institutions.

Scott Detrow (00:00):

"Over the past year, you have heard us talking again and again about high stakes elections all around the world."

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Key Regional Elections and Outcomes

South Asia: Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan

Bangladesh: The elections in Bangladesh highlighted the fragility of democratic institutions. Diya Hadid, NPR’s South Asia correspondent based in Mumbai, revealed that the elections were manipulated to secure former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s continued rule. However, widespread protests led to her ousting, and Bangladesh is now under transitional rule led by Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus, with hopes pinned on free and fair elections next year.

Notable Quote: Diya Hadid (04:19):

"Elections can be used as a fig leaf for autocracy and how that can backfire."

India: India, the world's largest democracy, saw the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retain power amid allegations of democratic erosion. Critics pointed to the BJP's Hindu nationalist rhetoric, which included scaremongering about India's Muslim minority, undermining their status as equal citizens.

Pakistan: Similarly, Pakistan’s elections were marred by widespread allegations of vote rigging. Diya highlighted a perception among South Asian populations that the United States was no longer a steadfast advocate for democratic ideals, citing the State Department's ambiguous stance on Pakistan's electoral integrity.

Notable Quote: Diya Hadid (05:14):

"The US isn't really paying even lip service to democratic ideals as it once used to."

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Latin America: Venezuela and Mexico

Venezuela: John Otis, NPR’s Latin America correspondent based in Bogota, reported a catastrophic electoral process in Venezuela. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro was accused of blatant electoral theft, disregarding clear opposition victories and leading to severe crackdowns on protesters. Despite strong U.S. pressure and sanctions, Maduro’s regime, bolstered by support from Russia and China, remains entrenched, signaling waning American influence in the region.

Notable Quote: John Otis (06:56):

"Maduro has been able to survive US sanctions thanks to help from authoritarian regimes in Russia and China."

Mexico: In contrast, Mexico witnessed a historic election with Claudia Scheinbaum becoming the country’s first female president. Her victory was perceived as riding her predecessor’s popularity into office, indicating a complex interplay between progress and entrenched political dynamics.

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West Africa: South Africa and Nigeria

South Africa: Emmanuel Akinwotu, NPR’s West Africa correspondent from Lagos, discussed South Africa’s pivotal election where the long-dominant African National Congress (ANC) lost significant support. Despite the ANC's powerful liberation legacy, voters expressed disillusionment with rampant corruption, high unemployment, and unmet promises, reflecting a broader continental trend of skepticism towards incumbent parties.

Notable Quote: Emmanuel Akinwotu (08:36):

"People were determined to cast their ballots and to have an impact. But there was also a lot of sadness just about the perceived failure of the ANC."

Nigeria: A similar pattern emerged in Nigeria, where the All Progressives Congress (APC) faced declining transparency in elections since its rise to power in 2015. Emmanuel noted the challenges posed by entrenched political cultures that hinder meaningful change despite voter dissatisfaction.

Notable Quote: Emmanuel Akinwotu (11:40):

"There was a real anticipation about having a moment in South Africa where the ANC wouldn't be as powerful as they'd been before."

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United States: A Reflection of Global Trends

The United States mirrored global electoral trends with former President Donald Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in a contentious election. This victory underscored a populist shift and dissatisfaction with incumbent leadership, aligning with global sentiments of anger toward established institutions and leaders.

Notable Quote: Scott Detrow (01:42):

"Former President Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, who had replaced the unpopular President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket."

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Common Themes and Challenges to Democracy

Across different regions, several overlapping themes emerged:

1. Manipulation of Democratic Processes:

   • Bangladesh and Venezuela exemplify how elections are manipulated to consolidate power, undermining genuine democratic choice.

2. Voter Distrust and Demand for Change:

   • South Africa and Nigeria showcase widespread voter frustration with entrenched parties, yet political cultures often impede substantial change.

3. Impact of External Influences:

   • The diminishing influence of the United States in regions like Latin America highlights how authoritarian allies like Russia and China can sustain undemocratic regimes.

4. Role of Political Culture and Historical Legacies:

   • South Africa’s ANC struggles illustrate how historical legacies can both inspire and constrain political transformations.

Notable Quote: John Otis (11:13):

"Maduro's Socialist Party... used the tools of democracy to slowly chip away at democracy, to get rid of checks and balances."

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Concluding Insights

The 2024 global elections provided a stark illustration of democracy’s precarious state. While some regions like Mexico achieved historic milestones, the overarching narrative points to significant democratic erosion influenced by populism, institutional distrust, and external geopolitical pressures. Experts warn that unless these trends are addressed, democracy may continue to face substantial threats worldwide.

Scott Detrow (12:32):

"We weren't alone...what this year's elections around the world say about the state of democracy at large."

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This episode of "Consider This" offers a critical lens on the evolving dynamics of global democracies, urging listeners to reflect on the resilience and future of democratic institutions in an increasingly polarized and volatile world.

Transcript

[Scott Detrow]

Scott. It's ALL THINGS CONSIDERED from NPR News. I'm Scott Detrow. Over the past year, you have heard us talking again and again about high stakes elections all around the world.

[Diya Hadid]

Trump is now the country's president elect.

[John Otis]

India's prime Minister Narendra Modi has claimed.

[Scott Detrow]

Victory that the Venezuela election did not meet international standards. We talked about 2024 as a year of elections with more than 4 billion people, about half the world's population, living in countries where major elections were taking place. All of this happening in a moment when experts are worried democracy is at risk on a global scale. 2024's elections began in South Asia barely a week into the year. We had these results from Bangladesh.

[Emmanuel Akinwotu]

It's going from being essentially a multi party democracy to becoming more of a one party state.

[Scott Detrow]

That wasn't the final word on Bangladesh's democracy for the year. And we'll have more on that in a moment. Meanwhile, a reformist won the presidency in Iran. And in India, the ruling party held onto power. In Venezuela, the opposition candidate said he was forced to sign a letter admitting defeat, though the US and other countries recognized him as the winner over Nicolas Maduro. And in Mexico, Claudia Scheinbaum made history as the country's first woman president, riding her predecessor's coattails into office.

[Claudia Scheinbaum]

La Presidenta.

[Scott Detrow]

Constitucional de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. But in other parts of the world, incumbency was seen as a big negative to many voters looking to throw ruling parties and leaders out of office, like in South Africa, where the ruling party lost support in a pivotal election.

[Emmanuel Akinwotu]

The historic result is a turning point for the party once led by Nelson Mandela.

[Scott Detrow]

That global trend played out in the United States as well. Former President Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, who had replaced the unpopular President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Midsummer, thank you very much.

[Emmanuel Akinwotu]

Wow.

[Scott Detrow]

Consider this. Elections dominated the news in America this year, but we weren't alone. So what do this year's elections around the world say about the state of democracy at large? From npr, I'm Scott Detrow. Foreign.

[Claudia Scheinbaum]

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[Scott Detrow]

It'S consider this from NPR. As this extraordinary year of global elections draws to an end, experts continue to warn of democratic backsliding. And all of this leads to big questions about what comes next in this moment of populism and anger at incumbents and institutions. We're going to start out by talking to some of the NPR correspondents who have had front row seats to these major elections. Dia Hadid, our South Asia correspondent, joins us from her base in Mumbai. Hey, Diya.

[Diya Hadid]

Hi.

[Scott Detrow]

And West Africa correspondent Emmanuel Akinwotu is on the line as well from Lagos. Hey, Emmanuel.

[Emmanuel Akinwotu]

Hey.

[Scott Detrow]

We are also joined by John Otis, who covers Latin America for us, as in Bogota. Hey, John.

[Diya Hadid]

Hey.

[John Otis]

Thanks. Good to be here.

[Scott Detrow]

Dia, I want to start with you because you began NPR's coverage of global elections this year from Asia in Bangladesh. Then you went on to cover India and Sri Lanka's elections. What struck you most from these elections that you covered?

[Diya Hadid]

What struck me most is how elections can be used as a fig leaf for autocracy and how that can backfire. An example of that is Bangladesh, where the elections were engineered to propel the former prime minister Sheikh Hasina into power. But months later, tens of thousands of people overran her residence and they forced her to flee in a helicopter to neighboring India. And now Bangladesh is under transitional rule led by the Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus. And the hope, perhaps optimistic, is that there'll be free and fair elections by the end of next year.

[Scott Detrow]

That's such an interesting point that I feel like ties into a lot of the themes we've seen that at a certain point, you just can't stop a sentiment, a groundswell, that of a push for change. Let's shift to India, though, another country with a lot of interesting crosscurrents which had elections this spring.

[Diya Hadid]

Right. And it's the world's largest democracy. So nearly a billion people cast their ballots over six staggered weeks of voting. But it is a place where critics say that democracy is being eroded in a few ways. Perhaps one of the most important, according to critics, is how the Hindu nationalists being bjp, has whipped up voters by scaremongering about Muslims who happen to be India's largest minority. And that includes the prime minister himself, Narendra Modi, who suggested India's Muslim minority were infiltrators at a rally in April. And that diminishes the idea of them as equal citizens with equal rights. We also had elections in Pakistan, Scott, and there we saw widespread allegations of vote rigging. And here's again, like one of these other major takeaways about the state of democracy in 2024 is that there was a sense among people that I was speaking to in South Asia that the United States isn't really paying even lip service to democratic ideals as it once used to. And think of Pakistan, where the State Department did issue a statement noting that elections had included restrictions on assembly, association and expression. But the next paragraph was that they'd work with the government that came to power.

[Scott Detrow]

That that brings me to John, because, John, I do feel like an exception to that has been how vocal the US Was demanding free and fair elections in Latin America. Though as you reported this year in the election in Venezuela, it turned into a fiasco. Tell us what happened.

[John Otis]

Yeah, it's pretty clear that the incumbent, Nicolas Maduro, stole the election. And it was really just an outright brazen electoral theft, probably the biggest I've seen in my many years covering this region. Voter tally sheets show that the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, he beat Maduro probably by a more than 2 to 1 margin. And yet on election night, Maduro comes out, and without a shred of evidence or any data, he just claims victory. And then after that, there were protests on the streets. So he unleashed a fierce crackdown, jailing protesters, and he forced Edmundo Gonzalez, the opposition candidate, to go into exile in Spain. And all of this happened despite, as you mentioned, fierce US Pressure on the Maduro regime to hold a free election. And that pressure included economic sanctions. And in the aftermath, the US Called out Maduro for stealing the election. They recognized Gonzalez as the rightful president elect. But none of this really mattered. US Influence is waning in Latin America, and so far, Maduro has been able to survive US Sanctions thanks to help from authoritarian regimes in Russia and China. And right now he's consolidating his dictatorship.

[Scott Detrow]

That's an interesting theme between the two places you're both covering there. Emmanuel, I want to talk to you now about South Africa because this was another interesting election this year. Ever since apartheid ended, the African National Congress has run the country. It's been one Party rule with broad majorities, voters turned on them this year. What happened?

[Emmanuel Akinwotu]

There's a way in which you can look at the elections in South Africa as a kind of snapshot of a wider continental trend where, you know, incumbent parties like the ancient have lost ground. South Africa, like many African countries, has a young population struggling to envision a better future, angry with corruption, with unemployment, some of the highest unemployment in the world, and failed promises. I think what I was really struck by was just the emotional poignancy of really what the ANC was still able to summon, this profound liberation history that goes back to Nelson Mandela. I remember being at ANC rallies in the final days of the campaign, including on Villa Kazi street where Nelson Mandela lived, and hearing these moving renditions, really, of liberation songs I'd only ever heard online, you know, feeling just as an outsider, just how powerful they still are, how moved people at the rally were. At the same time, it just was so out of step, really, with. With so many of the conversations I'd had with young people in and around Johannesburg who just felt they'd been really profoundly let down. There was a real anticipation about having a moment in South Africa where the ANC wouldn't be as powerful as they'd been before. But people weren't really relishing that. You know, they were determined to kind of cast their ballots and to have an impact. But I feel there was also a lot of sadness just about the perceived failure of the anc. And what I think I took from that and from other examples is just that whilst people were looking to show disappointment with incumbents, it didn't mean that they were optimistic about the future. Actually, they were not very hopeful about what the future holds.

[Scott Detrow]

There are a lot of different trends that you're all flagging that are running in parallel throughout the world. And I want to talk about one of them right now. A little bit of what you were saying there. Emmanuel. Voters are calling for alternatives all over the place, but in many places, status quo leaders or the ingrained political cultures are, in one way or another, throwing up roadblocks to those clear calls for change.

[Diya Hadid]

Absolutely. If you look at Bangladesh, for instance, it's not just the ousted prime minister's party that struggled to respect democratic norms. It was the rival opposition party and from time to time, the military. And we can see that play out, for instance, in Pakistan. India is a much stronger country, but certainly it's not just about one actor. It's about a whole culture that understands the importance of a peaceful transfer of power.

[John Otis]

Yeah. You know, likewise in Venezuela. I mean, talk about ingrained political cultures. Maduro's Socialist Party, they've held power now for the past quarter century. And basically what they've done over that time is they've used the tools of democracy, I mean like elections and referendums to slowly chip away at democracy, to get rid of checks and balances. And now basically there is no more democracy and hopes for any kind of change are really fading.

[Emmanuel Akinwotu]

This feels so similar to what is happening in Nigeria where I am where the ruling party, the APC, who've been in power since 2015, they began by being the first opposition party to win an election in this kind of era of democracy in Nigeria, and since then essentially overseeing progressively less transparent elections. And it feels as though so many things that are wrong with the political culture of Nigeria are, as Diya says, are kind of aligned into creating this just general obstacle for people to actually be able to kind of meaningfully achieve change or change the status quo.

[Scott Detrow]

That's Dia Hadid, Emmanuel Akinwotu and John Otis, three key people in our team of journalists covering the world. Thanks so much to all of you.

[Diya Hadid]

Thank you.

[John Otis]

Thanks very much.

[Emmanuel Akinwotu]

Thanks Kor.

[Scott Detrow]

This episode was produced by Avery Keatley and Megan Lim with audio engineering by Valentina Rodriguez Sanchez. It was edited by Adam Raney and Vincent Knee. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's consider this from npr. I'm Scott Detrow.

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