Insurgents gain ground in Syria. What happens now?

Summary

Consider This from NPR: Insurgents Gain Ground in Syria – What Happens Now?

Release Date: December 5, 2024
Host: Ari Shapiro

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Introduction: A Shift in the Syrian Civil War

In a significant development that has shaken the longstanding stalemate of the Syrian civil war, insurgent forces have made unexpected advances against President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The latest episode of NPR's Consider This delves into these changes, exploring their implications for Syria and the broader region.

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Rebel Advances in Aleppo: A Moment of Hope

The episode opens with a vivid portrayal of the rebels' takeover of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city. Host Ari Shapiro describes the atmosphere outside the ancient citadel of Aleppo, where "armed rebels in bulletproof jackets cheered and sang," capturing the elation of those witnessing the shift in control.

Notable Quote:
Freelance reporter Qasem shares her personal experience:
“I've seen people who are very happy. They have been in Aleppo. They've never left Aleppo, and they are very happy because the opposition entered the city.”
[00:36]

This sentiment underscores the deep desire among Aleppo's residents for stability and a return to normalcy after years of conflict.

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The Significance of Hama’s Fall: Strategic Implications

Following their success in Aleppo, insurgents have reportedly seized the city of Hama, a major stronghold previously under firm government control since the war began in 2011. This marks a pivotal moment, potentially altering the regional power dynamics.

Notable Quote:
NPR contributor Hadil Al Shalchi explains:
“Hama's been one of the few cities in Syria that's been completely under government control since the civil war broke out in 2011.”
[03:33]

Hama's strategic importance lies in its role as a supply route for Iran to transport arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon, a group currently engaged in conflict with Israel. Control over Hama could therefore have far-reaching consequences for regional security and alliances.

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Evolving Rebel Forces: From Al Qaeda Affiliations to Civil Governance

The insurgent groups, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have undergone significant transformations. Once allied with Al Qaeda, HTS has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots to present itself as a viable governing body.

Notable Quote:
Darien Khalifa of the International Crisis Group remarks:
“They are also not ideologues. At least the leadership are not ideologues. They've of course in the ranks had hard line elements, but they've managed over the years to kind of sideline these people.”
[04:57]

Despite attempts to pivot politically, HTS retains a fundamentalist core. The group's efforts to establish civil services in Aleppo, such as garbage collection and electricity restoration, have been met with cautious optimism from residents eager for improved living conditions.

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Voices from the Ground: Hope and Resilience Amidst Uncertainty

Local residents and experts provide a nuanced view of the situation. Dr. Jihad Muhiddin, a suwar for Aleppo, emphasizes the populace's yearning for a "fair life" and the restoration of "freedom and dignity."

Notable Quote:
Dr. Muhiddin states:
“People in Syria just want a fair life. They are thirsty for freedom and dignity and to live in a real civil society.”
[06:05]

Activist Abdelkafi Hamdo's return to Aleppo after fleeing in 2016 illustrates the fragile yet burgeoning confidence among Syrians that their cities can rebuild and heal.

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Looking Ahead: The Future of the Assad Regime and Syrian Stability

As insurgent forces gain momentum, the future of Assad's regime comes into question. Experts like Darien Khalifa highlight the precariousness of the government's position, noting the unexpected speed at which regime forces have retreated.

Notable Quote:
Khalifa adds:
“What will be a game changer is whether or not in the next few weeks the opposition would be able to put enough pressure on the regime and take control over the area.”
[05:35]

The episode concludes by pondering whether the Syrian government can withstand these blows or if the insurgents will continue to erode Assad's control, potentially paving the way for a new chapter in Syria's protracted conflict.

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Conclusion: A Nation at a Crossroads

NPR's Consider This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the shifting dynamics in Syria, highlighting both the challenges and the sparks of hope for its people. As insurgents make strategic gains, the path toward peace and reconstruction remains uncertain, demanding close attention from the international community.

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Produced by: Mark Rivers and Michael Levitt
Audio Engineering: Gilly Moon
Edited by: Courtney Dorning and James Hyder
Reporting: Ruth Sherlock
Executive Producer: Sami Yenigun

Transcript

[Ari Shapiro]

More than a decade of stalemate in the Syrian civil war shattered over the last week. A rebel advance took Syrian President Bashar al Assad by surprise. Armed rebels in bulletproof jackets cheered and sang outside the ancient citadel of Aleppo, Syria's second largest city. They filmed themselves to capture the moment, huge grins on their faces. Freelance Qasem used the opportunity to enter Aleppo for the first time since the war started in 2011.

[Qasem]

I've seen people who are very happy. They have been in Aleppo. They've never left Aleppo, and they are very happy because the opposition entered the city.

[Ari Shapiro]

Qasem, who opposes the government of Bashar al Assad, said the people are ready to start living again after so many years of violence and uncertainty. I asked her whether she thinks it's possible for Syrians to return to normal. The war has caused so much destruction and death after years of stalemate. Do you believe this resumption of fighting can actually lead to a positive outcome and not just more cycles of killing?

[Qasem]

I really hope so. I really hope so because I've seen to this moment. So many people, hundreds of people happy to return back home. They are happy to return back to their villages. We have tens of villages in the countryside of Aleppo and Aleppo City. Thousands of people, really thousands of hundreds of thousands of people will return back home. So the situation will be so much different for those people, especially people who are living in the camps in the northwest of Syria. We know that the NGOs cannot offer the people who are displaced in the camps what they need.

[Ari Shapiro]

Since Qasem and I spoke on Tuesday, the government has had another startling setback. Insurgents say they've taken control of another strategically important city. Consider this. The Syrian civil war has been locked in a stalemate for years. Now rebel forces are gaining ground against the oppressive regime of Bashar al Assad. Will the group ultimately end his control over the country? From npr, I'm Ari Shapiro. It's Consider this from npr. Syrian anti government insurgents claim they've entered the city of Hama, a major Syrian government stronghold. This continues their momentum over the last week when they also seized Syria's second largest city, Aleppo. Since the war started in 2011, half a million people have been killed and many millions of others displaced. To understand the significance of this operation, NPR's Hadil Al Shalchi joins us now. Welcome.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

Thank you.

[Ari Shapiro]

What more can you tell us about this latest development?

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

Right. So it's been three days of violent clashes between the rebel forces and pro government forces just on the eastern outskirts of Hama, the Syrian army said that it had redeployed and repositioned outside the city in order to, quote, preserve the lives of civilians. And even though Syria's state run media is denying that the insurgents have totally taken over the city, it's still a big deal that they're even inside.

[Ari Shapiro]

Why is the city of Hama so important?

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

Right, so first of all, Hama's been one of the few cities in Syria that's been completely under government control since the civil war broke out in 2011. But this is where there may be a regional consequence if Hama is taken over by the insurgents. The city is a supply route used by Iran to move arms to their Lebanese ally Hezbollah, which has of course been at war with Israel over the past few weeks, even though under a shaky ceasefire.

[Ari Shapiro]

Now, the main rebel force here used to be in an alliance with Al Qaeda. They say they have changed. What are people saying in areas under their control?

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

Right. So they took over Syria's second city, Aleppo, at the weekend and I spoke by phone to several people there. Residents say the rebels organized civil services quickly in the city, resuming things like garbage collection and bringing back electricity after a week of intense clashes between opposition fighters and forces loyal to the Syrian regime. Dr. Jihad Muhiddin is a sur for Aleppo. The opposition forces treatment has been good towards us. He says all of the sects, Christians, Arabs, Armenians, those forces were led by a US designated terrorist organization called Hayat Tahrir Al Shem, or hts. HTS is a former offshoot of Al Qaeda, but broke off from the group years ago as it tried to shed its jihadist roots. Darien Khalifa is a senior advisor and Syria expert at the International Crisis Group.

[Darien Khalifa]

They are also not ideologues. At least the leadership are not ideologues. They've of course in the ranks had hard line elements, but they've managed over the years to kind of sideline these people.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

Khalifa says that HTS has been evolving over the last few years politically, focusing on becoming a civilian government while also strengthening their military. But while it has tried to pivot its vision, their core is fundamentalist. Most residents in Aleppo say their main apprehension today is from regime airstrikes, but many just say they want a better quality of life. Khalifa says that Aleppo's economy took a hit after it was taken over by pro government forces and the city was cut off from the Turkish border.

[Darien Khalifa]

Aleppo was the economic heart of Syria, but all the businessmen left and don't want to come back because they don't want to be governed by a bunch of militias.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

But now that HTS is in control, some people are coming back and separated families are reuniting. Activist Abdelkafi Hamdo fled Aleppo in 2016 when government forces retook the city. He came back just three days ago.

[Ari Shapiro]

I came very quickly.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

I mean, my car and of course.

[Darien Khalifa]

It was very difficult and dangerous because the airstrikes.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

But at the end, I could enter Aleppo. Dr. Mohiddin says at the end of the day, people in Syria just want a fair life. He says people are thirsty for freedom and dignity and to live in a real civil society.

[Ari Shapiro]

Reporting there from NPR's Hadil Al Shalchi, who's still with us. And Hadil, what developments are you keeping an eye out for next?

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

Well, can the rebels carry on this momentum? Khalifa told me that while she's not surprised the insurgents are carrying out this operation, she was stunned by how the government forces, she said, just melted away.

[Darien Khalifa]

What will be a game changer is whether or not in the next few weeks the opposition would be able to put enough pressure on the regime and take control over the area.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

She says many people are wondering now if this regime can even survive this war.

[Ari Shapiro]

NPR's Hadil Al Shalchi, thank you.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

You're welcome.

[Ari Shapiro]

This episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Michael Levitt with audio engineering by Gilly Moon. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and James Hyder. It contains reporting from Ruth Sherlock. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun. It's Consider this from npr. I'm Ari Shapiro.