Investigating the Russia investigations. What's left to learn?

Summary

Consider This from NPR: Investigating the Russia Investigations – What's Left to Learn?

Release Date: August 8, 2025

NPR’s Consider This episode delves deep into the multifaceted investigations surrounding Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Hosted by Ari Shapiro, the episode examines the historical context, the findings of major investigations, the current political landscape, and the implications for American intelligence and national security.

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1. Introduction to Russian Interference and Trump's Election

The episode opens by posing a fundamental question: Was Russian interference in the 2016 election the reason Donald Trump won the presidency the first time? This query has persisted throughout Trump's tenure and has been the focal point of numerous investigations.

Mark Warner, Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, emphasizes the severity of the interference:

“[00:20] Russian intelligence officers who were part of the Russian military launched a concerted attack on our political system.”

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2. Overview of Major Investigations

Two primary investigations are highlighted:

• Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Investigation (2017-2019): Released a report in 2019 stating there was no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. However, it meticulously documented Russia’s efforts to interfere in the 2016 presidential campaign.

• Senate Intelligence Committee Report (2020): A bipartisan effort that confirmed and expanded upon Mueller’s findings, detailing the extent of Russian interference.

Mark Warner comments on the bipartisan nature of these findings:

“[00:46] I will let every American who wants to read the report draw their own conclusions.”

He further elaborates on the unprecedented interactions between Russian agents and Trump-related officials:

“[00:58] Unprecedented level of contacts from Russians and their agents with the Trump campaign and Trump related officials at a level that was unprecedented.”

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3. Trump's Dismissal of Russian Interference

Despite the thorough investigations, Donald Trump consistently downplayed the significance of Russian interference. In a 2017 interview with NBC’s Lester Holt, Trump dismissed the allegations:

“[01:21] This Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story. It's an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election that they should have won.”

This stance reflects Trump’s broader strategy of delegitimizing the investigations and maintaining his narrative.

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4. Renewed Interest in Russian Interference by the Second Trump Administration

The episode shifts focus to recent developments wherein the second Trump administration seeks to re-examine past investigations:

• Tulsi Gabbard’s Actions: As Director of National Intelligence, Gabbard declassified documents alleging that the Obama administration directed the creation of a misleading intelligence community assessment.

  “[01:48] There is irrefutable evidence that detail how President Obama and his national security team directed the creation of an intelligence community assessment that they knew was false.”

• Attorney General Pam Bondi’s Initiative: Bondi has initiated a grand jury investigation into U.S. intelligence concerning Trump and Russia, aiming to uncover new angles or evidence.

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5. In-Depth Analysis with Renee DiResta

To unpack these developments, Ari Shapiro interviews Renee DiResta, an Associate Research Professor at Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy and a contributor to Lawfare.

a. Types of Russian Interference

DiResta outlines three primary methods of Russian interference:

1. Disinformation Campaigns by the Internet Research Agency (IRA):

   • Utilized fake social media accounts and bots to spread misinformation and manipulate public opinion.

2. Hack and Leak Operations by GRU (Russian Military Intelligence):

   • Targeted entities like the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the Clinton campaign to obtain and strategically release damaging information.

3. Attempts to Hack Voter Rolls:

   • While there was no evidence of altering vote tallies, Russian actors attempted to breach systems related to voter registration.

She emphasizes that these methods were thoroughly documented by intelligence agencies, including the FBI, CIA, and NSA.

b. Investigations into Interference vs. Collusion

A critical distinction made by DiResta is between Russian interference and collusion:

“[06:32] Russian interference asks the question, how did Russia manipulate the 2016 election?... The question of collusion asks, did the Trump campaign know about it, support it, or work with it in any way?”

She clarifies that even if Russia intended to assist the Trump campaign, without evidence that the campaign was aware or involved, it does not constitute collusion.

c. Claims About Russia Wanting Hillary Clinton to Win

The Trump administration has propagated the notion that Russia favored Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election. DiResta examines this claim:

“[07:53] There is supposedly a collection of shocking emails that exists. Nobody has ever seen them, to be clear.”

She points out that the argument hinges on unverified claims of damaging emails against Clinton, which Russia never released. This has been used to suggest that Russia's tactics inadvertently benefited Trump, although the evidence remains speculative.

d. Impact of Recent Actions on U.S. Intelligence

DiResta warns of the broader implications stemming from actions like declassifying sensitive documents:

“[09:19] It undermines US Intelligence, it exposes those sources, it damages trust with allies who share intelligence with us, and it turns national security into partisan fodder.”

She argues that such moves erode the integrity and effectiveness of U.S. intelligence operations and strain international alliances.

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6. Conclusions and Implications

The episode underscores the enduring complexity of the Russia investigations and the challenges posed by political interference in intelligence work. Despite extensive investigations affirming Russian interference without direct collusion, ongoing efforts by the Trump administration to reopen these cases highlight a persistent quest for alternative narratives. Renee DiResta emphasizes the potential risks to national security and intelligence credibility stemming from these renewed investigations.

Ari Shapiro concludes by reflecting on the iterative nature of these investigations and the critical need for maintaining rigorous and independent journalistic standards to uphold democratic institutions.

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This comprehensive exploration by Consider This offers listeners a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted investigations into Russian interference, the political dynamics at play, and the broader implications for U.S. intelligence and democracy.

Transcript

[Ari Shapiro]

Was Russian interference in the 2016 election the reason Donald Trump won the presidency the first time? That question dogged Trump most of his first term. It's been asked and answered again and again over many investigations.

[Mark Warner]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for being here.

[Ari Shapiro]

There was Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation.

[Mark Warner]

Russian intelligence officers who were part of the Russian military launched a concerted attack on our political system.

[Ari Shapiro]

The 2019 report which came of that investigation did not find any evidence of collusion, but it did document Russian efforts to interfere in the 2016 presidential campaign. There was also the bipartisan report by the Senate intelligence committee in 2020 which confirmed and built on some of the findings from Mueller's investigation.

[Mark Warner]

I will let every American who wants to read the report draw their own conclusions.

[Ari Shapiro]

That's the committee's vice chair, Democratic Senator Mark Warner, speaking with NPR's All Things Considered in August of 2020. When that report was released, there was.

[Mark Warner]

Unprecedented level of contacts from Russians and their agents with the Trump campaign and Trump related officials at a level that was unprecedented.

[Ari Shapiro]

Despite the findings of multiple investigations, Trump and his allies have downplayed and undercut the conclusion that Russia interfered in the U.S. election. Here's what he told NBC's Lester Holt in 2017.

[Mark Warner]

This Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story. It's an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election that they should have won.

[Ari Shapiro]

And even though that question, did Russia help Trump win? Has been asked and answered again and again, the second Trump administration is looking for new answers. Last month, Trump's Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard declassified documents and she leveled an unprecedented accusation.

[Tulsi Gabbard]

There is irrefutable evidence that detail how President Obama and his national security team directed the creation of of an intelligence community assessment that they knew was false.

[Ari Shapiro]

And now Attorney General Pam Bondi has launched a grand jury investigation into U.S. intelligence about Trump and Russia ahead of the 2016 election. Consider this. After nearly a decade, Donald Trump is ordering new investigations into Russian election interference in hopes of finding different conclusions. From npr, I'm Ari Shapiro.

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[Ari Shapiro]

It's consider this from NPR. For the better part of a decade, federal government investigators have been looking into Russian interference in the 2016 election. And now people are investigating the investigations. From the beginning, Donald Trump has called Russia's influence campaign a hoax. He's urging his appointees to reopen the case against those he accuses of persecuting him. Renee Diresta of Georgetown recently wrote about all these investigations for the website Lawfare, and she's with us now. Welcome to ALL THINGS considered.

[Renee DiResta]

Thanks for having me.

[Ari Shapiro]

Just to build this conversation on a foundation of facts, what do we actually know about how Russia tried to influence the 2016 election?

[Renee DiResta]

Sure. There are three different types of interference. There was the troll factory disinformation campaign by the Internet Research Agency. So people have heard about the Russian bots, fake social media accounts. There was that. Then there was the gru, which is Russian military intelligence, which ran a series of hack and leak campaigns targeting the dnc, the Clinton campaign and others. They would obtain emails and then at strategic times to hurt one of the campaigns, the Clinton campaign, to detract attention from, for example, when the Access Hollywood tape came out, they would drop a new tranche of documents. That was trying to shift media focus. So the hack and leak campaigns were trying to sort of steer the public conversation. And then the third form of interference was the effort to hack machines and databases concerned with voter rolls. It's important to note that they did not alter any voting. No vote tallies were changed. But actors that were identified as, quote, Russian cyber actors did try to hack voting machines. And so these three forms of interference were what the intelligence agencies, the FBI, the CIA and the NSA wrote about when they described Russian interference in their reports.

[Ari Shapiro]

And those are not really in dispute. Republicans even for many years have agreed with the conclusions that Russia did those things. But let's talk about how those conclusions were reached. Can you just give us a couple of highlights of how this was examined?

[Renee DiResta]

So there were two main investigations that the public can go look at. There was the Mueller investigation, which went through all of the different forms of interference. And then there was the Senate Intelligence Committee investigation. That's the big second one huge five volume report, looked at the data that social media platforms turned over from the Russian trolls, for example, looked at all of the different ways that the hack and leak operations had been used to try to shift the public narrative, to transform the media conversation. I think those are the two big investigations that really lay out an incredible detail that we're seeing as very, very bipartisan, particularly the Senate Intelligence Committee investigation. And that's where the public should look if they want to understand what exactly the facts of the matter are.

[Ari Shapiro]

And in the present day, as Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard and Attorney General Pam Bondi both try to revisit this. There seem to be a couple things focusing on which I'd love for you to explain for us. One is the difference between Russian influence and Russian collusion with the Trump campaign.

[Renee DiResta]

So Russian interference asks the question, how did Russia manipulate the 2016 election? Or how did they seek to. To engage with the American public and to put false information out into the public in ways that would potentially further their strategic interests? The question of collusion asks, did the Trump campaign know about it, support it, or work with it in any way? That's a very, very different question. Even if Russia was trying to help the campaign, if the campaign didn't know about it, that is not. These two things are distinct, however. The investigation into collusion began six months prior to the intelligence community assessments of the interference. And that's because In July of 2016, there was a tip from Australian intelligence saying he There are these aides from the Trump campaign who are bragging about knowledge that Moscow has a tranche of emails that are going to be damaging to Hillary Clinton, and that in July of 2016, so months prior to Trump winning the election, is what actually triggers the collusion investigations.

[Ari Shapiro]

Another argument we're hearing the Trump administration make today is they are claiming that Russia actually wanted Hillary Clinton to win in 2016. Now, it's clear from the investigations you've described that Russia expected Hillary Clinton to win in 2016, but that's not exactly the same thing.

[Renee DiResta]

So most of the world expected Hillary Clinton to win in 2016. That was where the polling was. It was a surprise, even here in the United States. If you recall, the allegation that Russia, quote, wanted Hillary to win hinges on one report that they declassified an investigation run by Devin Nunes, who's now the CEO of Truth Social, who at the time ran the House Select Committee on Intelligence. Now, that investigation alleges that there is a tranche of emails held by Russian intelligence, the SVR specifically, that were. That. That. That are shockingly damaging to Hillary Clinton, that say that she was on all sorts of tranquilizers that say that she has emotional problems. So there is supposedly a collection of shocking emails that exists. Nobody has ever seen them, to be clear. But because Russia did not release these shocking emails that nobody has ever seen, that is the argument that they make to justify the fact that Russia wanted Hillary to win because they did not hurt her as much as they theoretically could have, is the argument Gabbard and the others are making. That means that they could have wanted her to win.

[Ari Shapiro]

When you have Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declassifying documents reportedly over the objections of the CIA, when you have Pam Bondi assigning prosecutors to look into some of these former senior intelligence officials who oversaw these investigations, which what does that do for the ability of this country to conduct intelligence work?

[Renee DiResta]

Well, some of the materials that are being declassified are rather shocking as far as the amount of information that they expose about what the intelligence community refers to as sources and methods. What I think Gabbard's document release does is it undermines US Intelligence, it exposes those sources, it damages trust with allies who share intelligence with us, and it turns national security into partisan fodder. And it's doing this all for a political narrative.

[Ari Shapiro]

That is Renee DiResta. You can read her piece in Lawfare, and she is an associate research professor at Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy. Thank you so much.

[Renee DiResta]

Thank you for having me.

[Ari Shapiro]

This episode was produced by Michael Levitt with audio engineering by Ted Mebane. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. Thanks to our Consider THIS plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. Learn [e-mail] It's Consider this from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.

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