Consider This from NPR: Is There a Deal to End Russia's War with Ukraine? Release Date: February 26, 2025

In this compelling episode of NPR's "Consider This," host Mary Louise Kelly delves into the complex and ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, exploring the possibility of a diplomatic resolution. The discussion features insights from Alexander Vindman, a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel with deep ties to both Ukraine and the Trump White House. Vindman offers a critical perspective on U.S. foreign policy and the challenges of negotiating peace in the current geopolitical landscape.

1. Introduction to the Potential Deal

The episode opens with former President Donald Trump advocating for a deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. At [00:00], Trump states:

Donald Trump: "But I think it's to the very much benefit of Russia to make a deal."

Mary Louise Kelly sets the stage by explaining that Trump's proposed deal hinges on Ukraine's willingness to make significant compromises with the United States. Trump emphasizes the strategic importance of Ukraine's natural resources, particularly rare earth metals, which are crucial for various industries.

Donald Trump: "We'll be really partnering with Ukraine in terms of rare earth. We very much need rare earth." ([00:18])

Kelly elaborates on the Trump administration's ambition to secure hundreds of billions of dollars in rare earth metals and other critical minerals from Ukraine, though specific details of the deal remain unclear.

At [00:50], Trump adds:

Donald Trump: "But we've been able to make a deal where we're going to get our money back and we're going to get a lot of money in the future. And I think that's appropriate because we have taxpayers that are shouldn't be footing the bill."

This statement underscores the financial dimensions of the proposed agreement, highlighting concerns about taxpayer investment without clear returns.

2. The Complexity of Ending the Conflict

Kelly raises a pivotal question about whether a deal between the U.S. and Ukraine can effectively end the protracted conflict with Russia. She introduces Alexander Vindman, whose extensive experience provides valuable context to this issue.

Mary Louise Kelly: "Consider this. It's been three years since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. Coming up, we'll hear from Alexander Vindman, who knows both Ukraine and the Trump White House intimately and who says that ending the war will not be so simple."

Vindman responds with a realist perspective on the improbability of a straightforward compromise:

Alexander Vindman: "You're not going to find much of a compromise when both sides feel like they're on the cusp of winning or holding out or breaking the other side." ([01:26])

3. Alexander Vindman's Background and Perspectives

The episode provides an in-depth look at Vindman's background, highlighting his Ukrainian roots, military service, and his pivotal role during the Trump administration. Vindman, whose testimony in the impeachment hearings elevated his public profile, emphasizes his commitment to U.S. national security over personal grievances.

At [03:01], Kelly introduces Vindman's new book, The Folly of Realism: How the West Deceived Itself About Russia and Betrayed Ukraine, setting the stage for a critical discussion.

Alexander Vindman: "Thank you for having me back." ([03:24])

4. Assessing Grounds for Hope in 2025

Kelly first explores whether there is any optimism that 2025 could mark the end of the war. Vindman is skeptical, attributing the dim outlook to the Trump administration's approach, which he characterizes as appeasement towards Russia.

Alexander Vindman: "I don't think so. Not under the approach that the Trump administration's taking. It's an approach that looks to appease Russia in the tradition of 30 plus years of Russia first policy." ([03:42])

He criticizes the administration's perceived leniency, suggesting that Russia remains unsatisfied while Ukraine remains unwilling to capitulate, thereby prolonging the conflict.

5. Historical Missteps in U.S. Policy

Vindman delves into historical U.S. foreign policy failures towards Russia and Ukraine, identifying key moments where different actions might have altered the course of events.

He points to the Orange Revolution in 2004:

Alexander Vindman: "I think in the orange revolution in 2004, we did very, very kid glove condemnations of Russia. We should have worn them off and invested in Ukraine, and we didn't do that." ([05:23])

And the annexation of Crimea in 2014:

Alexander Vindman: "We could have not done what we did, which was look to reset, but we could have avoided doing a reset and instead been quite conditional in our relationship with Russia, condemnatory when we needed to be imposing sanctions, helping arm Ukraine." ([05:56])

These reflections highlight a pattern of insufficient support for Ukraine and inadequate resistance to Russian aggression, which Vindman argues have emboldened Russia's actions.

6. Counsel for Future Policy Makers

Looking ahead, Vindman offers strategic recommendations for U.S. policymakers to effectively counter Russian aggression and support Ukraine.

Alexander Vindman: "What we should be doing is understanding that we could focus on long term objectives. We could be focusing on making sure we have strong alliances with NATO, that our support for that collective defense treaty is ironclad." ([06:31])

He emphasizes the importance of robust alliances, continued investment in Ukraine and potential other targets of aggression like Taiwan, and steadfast support for NATO.

Kelly challenges this approach by noting that similar strategies were employed by the Biden administration without resolving the conflict:

Mary Louise Kelly: "I guess the pushback to that is that the Biden administration tried that, invested in the relationship with NATO, invested in Ukraine, and here we are with war still raging three years on." ([06:55])

Vindman counters by critiquing both Trump and Biden administrations, asserting that both have been insufficient in their support for Ukraine:

Alexander Vindman: "They were day late and a dollar short consistently in providing support to Ukraine." ([07:47])

7. The Role of Military Support in Achieving Peace

Vindman connects the provision of military support to Ukraine with the potential for ending the war, highlighting the asymmetrical strengths of both Russia and Ukraine.

Alexander Vindman: "The Russians are making tiny incremental gains, but suffering enormous losses. They could weather some of those losses because they have a larger population, they have a larger economy, but they can't do that forever." ([07:58])

Conversely, Ukraine's high morale and effective performance are offset by its limited human resources, making a compromise difficult when both nations remain resolute in their positions.

8. Prospects for U.S.-Russia Relations

In discussing the future of U.S.-Russia relations, Vindman underscores the necessity of honest and strategic engagement, cautioning against deceptive negotiations that Russia might exploit.

Alexander Vindman: "They’re going to try to string along these negotiations. They’re going to try to play at the fact that they’re willing to end the war. But when they don’t deliver, that's when there's an opportunity to rebalance and recognize that the support needs to go behind NATO, needs to go behind Ukraine if we want to bring this war." ([08:52])

He advocates for a clear-eyed approach that prioritizes support for NATO and Ukraine over futile compromises with Putin.

9. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with Vindman reaffirming the critical choices facing U.S. policymakers:

Alexander Vindman: "Do we want Russia to be the winner or do we want the US to be the winner?" ([08:52])

Mary Louise Kelly summarizes Vindman's insights and the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy, emphasizing the intricate balance between diplomacy, military support, and alliance-building necessary to navigate the conflict's resolution.

Notable Quotes:

• Donald Trump ([00:00]): "But I think it's to the very much benefit of Russia to make a deal."
• Mary Louise Kelly ([00:18]): "The president has his eye on Ukraine's rich natural resources."
• Alexander Vindman ([01:26]): "You're not going to find much of a compromise when both sides feel like they're on the cusp of winning or holding out or breaking the other side."
• Alexander Vindman ([03:42]): "I don't think so. Not under the approach that the Trump administration's taking."
• Alexander Vindman ([05:23]): "We should have worn them off and invested in Ukraine, and we didn't do that."
• Alexander Vindman ([07:58]): "The Russians are making tiny incremental gains, but suffering enormous losses."
• Alexander Vindman ([08:52]): "Do we want Russia to be the winner or do we want the US to be the winner?"

Production Credits:

• Producers: Mark Rivers and Alejandra Marquez Hanse
• Editors: Courtney Dorning and Nadia Lancy
• Executive Producer: Sami Yenigun

Additional Information: Listeners interested in accessing the podcast without sponsor interruptions can subscribe to "Consider This+" at plus.npr.org. Support for NPR’s journalism is also available through Amazon Music for Prime members.

This episode offers a nuanced exploration of the geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, enriched by Alexander Vindman's firsthand experience and critical analysis of past and present U.S. policies. It serves as a valuable resource for understanding the complexities of international diplomacy and the arduous path toward peace.