It's not your imagination. Hurricanes are getting more severe.

Summary

Podcast Summary: “It’s Not Your Imagination. Hurricanes Are Getting More Severe.”

Podcast: Consider This from NPR
Host: Ailsa Chang
Air Date: August 21, 2025
Episode Length: ~9 minutes of editorial content

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Overview

This episode examines the growing severity of hurricanes, tracing advancements in hurricane science since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Ailsa Chang and NPR's Alejandra Barunda discuss both the transformative improvements in forecasting and the existential threats posed by funding cuts and climate change. The episode features insights from meteorologists, scientists, and firsthand accounts from critical storm events.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

Katrina’s Legacy and Initial Realizations

• Katrina’s Impact: The story opens with meteorologist Robert Ricks recalling his shock as Hurricane Katrina scaled to a catastrophic Category 5, prompting unprecedented warnings and leading to devastation in New Orleans.
  • “But when that eye exposed itself as large as it was on the satellite imagery and knew that it was a five, then it took on a whole new perspective.” — Robert Ricks [00:28]
• Aftermath: Katrina left over 1,300 dead, submerged most of New Orleans, and became the then-most expensive hurricane in U.S. history, serving as a wake-up call about intensifying hurricanes.
  • “Katrina was a harbinger of what would happen to hurricanes over the next two decades. Climate change would make them an increasingly powerful and regular threat.” — Ailsa Chang [01:13]

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20 Years of Forecasting Advances

• Collaborative Efforts: After Katrina, agencies and scientists created the Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project (HFIP) to dramatically reduce errors in hurricane track and intensity forecasting.
  • “It's been a pivotal 20 years.” — Gabe Becky, Climate and Hurricane Scientist, Princeton [04:20]
• Major Achievements:
  • HFIP surpassed its goal to halve forecast errors within 10 years.
  • “By last year, a five day out forecast of both track and intensity was about equivalent to a two day forecast in 2005.” — Alejandra Barunda [05:50]
• How They Did It:
  • Better Computer Models: Dramatic improvements in computer modeling of storms.
  • New Observational Tools:
    • Special satellites (using microwave technology) give 3D imagery inside hurricanes.
      • “They are able to do kind of a 3D MRI like picture of the inside of a hurricane.” — Jeff Masters, Hurricane Scientist [05:21]
    • “Hurricane hunter” planes collect in-situ data with Doppler radar and oceanic sensors.
  • These advances provided crucial, real-time data and improved the accuracy of predictions.

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Climate Change and Hurricanes Now

• Unambiguous Trends:
  • Hurricanes are more frequent, stronger, and wetter than 40 years ago, due to climate change.
    • “It's unambiguous that over the last 40 years, say since the 1980s, hurricanes in the Atlantic have become more frequent, more intense, wetter overall.” — Gabe Becky [06:17]
  • A hotter planet and ocean allow storms to travel farther north, with increased rainfall doing most of the damage.
    • Example: “Last year […] Hurricane Helene dropped an extra 10% more water than it would have otherwise.” — Alejandra Barunda [06:28]

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Progress Under Threat

• Funding Cuts:
  • Budget slashes—particularly referencing the Trump administration—have endangered the research and capabilities crucial for continued forecasting progress.
    • “We have to continue investing in the observations, in the analysis of those observations.” — Kim Wood, Hurricane Scientist, University of Arizona [07:13]
• Economic and Social Value of Forecasting:
  • Improved forecasts save the U.S. billions per hurricane—greater than the entire National Weather Service budget.
    • “A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research last year found that improvements of forecasts saved the country 2% billion per hurricane because people could better prepare for them. That's more than the budget of the whole weather service.” — Alejandra Barunda [07:24]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Hurricane Katrina’s Escalation:
  • “When that eye exposed itself as large as it was on the satellite imagery and knew that it was a five, then it took on a whole new perspective.” — Robert Ricks [00:28]
• Science’s Response & Triumph:
  • “It's been a pivotal 20 years.” — Gabe Becky [04:20]
  • “By last year, a five day out forecast […] was about equivalent to a two day forecast in 2005.” — Alejandra Barunda [05:50]
• Climate Reality:
  • “It's unambiguous that over the last 40 years, say since the 1980s, hurricanes in the Atlantic have become more frequent, more intense, wetter overall.” — Gabe Becky [06:17]
• Forecasting Saves Lives & Money:
  • “Improvements of forecasts saved the country 2% billion per hurricane because people could better prepare for them. That's more than the budget of the whole weather service.” — Alejandra Barunda [07:24]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–01:13 — Recollections of Katrina, initial shock, and devastation
• 01:41–02:07 — Recent and historical hurricane destruction (Sandy, Harvey, Ian)
• 04:09–05:45 — Interview: How forecasting science evolved post-Katrina
• 05:50–06:49 — Climate change’s impact; storms getting wetter/more destructive
• 06:56–07:39 — Funding threats; economic value of improved forecasts
• 07:39–07:45 — Closing reflections

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Takeaway

The science of hurricane forecasting has transformed since Katrina, providing more accurate predictions and saving countless lives and resources. However, these life-saving advancements hinge on consistent support and funding. As hurricanes grow stronger—fueled by a changing climate—maintaining and improving forecasting capacity remains both scientifically challenging and societally vital.

Transcript

[Ailsa Chang]

In late August 2005, National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Ricks in Slidell, Louisiana, was monitoring the progress of a hurricane as it approached the Louisiana coast.

[Robert Ricks]

You know, we saw another storm, thinking, you know, here we go again. But it was going to be more of the ordinary routine drill that we've been through several times before.

[Ailsa Chang]

Ricks expected Hurricane Katrina to be big, perhaps a category three or four at landfall.

[Robert Ricks]

But when that eye exposed itself as large as it was on the satellite imagery and knew that it was a five, then it took on a whole new perspective.

[Ailsa Chang]

At 10am on the morning of Aug. 28, Ricks issued an urgent weather message more dire than any he had ever issued before, describing a, quote, most powerful hurricane with unprecedented strength.

[Becky]

I am this morning declaring that we will be doing a mandatory evacuation. And I'm going to read news that there's possibly a breach on the levee at Lake Pontchartrain that's pouring more water still into a city that's already flooded. With much of New Orleans now underwater, authorities are focused on search and rescue before it's too late.

[Ailsa Chang]

Hurricane Katrina would leave more than 1300 people dead, an estimated 80% of New Orleans underwater, and would become the most expensive hurricane in history. With overall economic losses estimated at 125 billion, Katrina was a harbinger of what would happen to hurricanes over the next two decades. Climate change would make them an increasingly powerful and regular threat.

[Becky]

Millions of Americans from New England to Virginia are bracing for a potential superstorm. Hurricane Sandy is serious. It has already killed 21 people in the moon.

[NPR Podcast Host]

As Hurricane Harvey picks up strength. The storm is now a category three with more than 110 mile per hour winds. It could bring three feet of.

[Becky]

A treacherous night ahead for Florida as darkness begins to fall and Hurricane Ian continues its catastrophic rampage.

[Ailsa Chang]

Consider this. Hurricane Katrina spurred a better understanding of these intensifying storms. Its devastation led to improved storm preparedness. But two decades after the levees broke, can we hang on to that progress? From npr, I'm Ailsa Chang.

[NPR Podcast Host]

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[Ailsa Chang]

It's consider this from npr. The force with which Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans stunned the country. Since then, scientists have gotten much better at forecasting hurricanes and understanding how climate change influences them. But those scientists now fear that progress is in danger. NPR's Alejandra Barunda is here to explain.

[Alejandra Barunda]

Hi, Elsa.

[Ailsa Chang]

Okay, so just big picture here. How has hurricane science evolved since Katrina?

[Alejandra Barunda]

I'll let Gabe Becky tell you. He's a climate and hurricane scientist at Princeton.

[Becky]

It's been a great 20 years. It's been a pivotal 20 years.

[Alejandra Barunda]

That's because right after Katrina, scientists from agencies like NOAA and universities and national labs all got together to work on something called the Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project, or hpip. And the project aimed to flash forecast error for both hurricane track, which is where a storm is going, and intensity by about 50% within 10 years. And it absolutely crushed those goals.

[Ailsa Chang]

Crushed? How did they crush those goals?

[Alejandra Barunda]

Yeah, so they did two big things. First, scientists needed to build better computer models of the storms. And then they also needed better real observations of the storms because the best model in the the world isn't super useful if you don't feed it good starting information. And HVIP and other federal efforts helped with both. HVIP was mostly on the modeling side, and other agencies helped improve the observations. Like NOAA and the Department of Defense launched these special satellites in the 2010s, and hurricane scientist Jeff Masters explains them.

[Becky]

These use microwaves, the same things, you know, you used to run your microwave oven on. And they are able to do kind of a 3D MRI like picture of the inside of a hurricane.

[Alejandra Barunda]

And that microwave data helps a lot and so does information from the hurricane hunter planes that fly through the storms getting Doppler radar images and also drops sensors down through the storm to the ocean surface.

[Here and Now Host]

Wow.

[Ailsa Chang]

Okay. So all of this has added a ton of new useful information. I Imagine.

[Alejandra Barunda]

Yeah. And it all adds up to big forecasting gains. By last year, a five day out forecast of both track and intensity was about equivalent to a two day forecast in 2005.

[Ailsa Chang]

Oh, my God. That's a big jump. Okay, well, what about climate change? Because I'm sure, sure that has had an impact on hurricanes, right?

[Alejandra Barunda]

Absolutely. And not only now do we have 20 more years of observations to understand it, but the theory is also way farther along. Here's Becky again.

[Becky]

So it's unambiguous that over the last 40 years, say since the 1980s, hurricanes in the Atlantic have become more frequent, more intense, wetter overall.

[Alejandra Barunda]

Scientists say climate change kind of puts storm on steroids. And a hotter planet, and especially a hotter ocean means storms can penetrate farther north too. And they're filled with a lot more water, which actually is what does most of the damage. Last year, for example, Hurricane Helene dropped an extra 10% more water than it would have otherwise.

[Ailsa Chang]

Geez. So can we expect hurricane forecast to get even better in the future?

[Alejandra Barunda]

So the Trump administration has slashed funding for many of the organizations critical to hurricane science. And so there's now some concern about even keeping up with the progress that already has been made. Kim Wood puts it this way. There are hurricane scientists at the University of Arizona.

[NPR Podcast Host]

We didn't get this far by saying, yep, we figured out hurricanes, we're done. We have to continue investing in the observations, in the analysis of those observations.

[Alejandra Barunda]

Because that progress has real value. A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research last year found that improvements of forecasts saved the country 2% billion per hurricane because people could better prepare for them. That's more than the budget of the whole weather service.

[Ailsa Chang]

Wow. That is NPR's Alejandra Barunda. Thank you so much, Alejandra.

[Alejandra Barunda]

Yeah, glad to talk.

[Ailsa Chang]

This episode was produced by Michael Levitt with audio engineering by Kwesi Lee. It was edited by Courtney Dorning, Patrick Jaron Watananan and Sadie Babitz. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigun. It's consistent. Consider this from npr. I'm Ailsa Chang.

[Here and Now Host]

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