Podcast Summary: “It’s Not Your Imagination. Hurricanes Are Getting More Severe.”

Podcast: Consider This from NPR
Host: Ailsa Chang
Air Date: August 21, 2025
Episode Length: ~9 minutes of editorial content

Overview

This episode examines the growing severity of hurricanes, tracing advancements in hurricane science since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Ailsa Chang and NPR's Alejandra Barunda discuss both the transformative improvements in forecasting and the existential threats posed by funding cuts and climate change. The episode features insights from meteorologists, scientists, and firsthand accounts from critical storm events.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Katrina’s Legacy and Initial Realizations

• Katrina’s Impact: The story opens with meteorologist Robert Ricks recalling his shock as Hurricane Katrina scaled to a catastrophic Category 5, prompting unprecedented warnings and leading to devastation in New Orleans.
  • “But when that eye exposed itself as large as it was on the satellite imagery and knew that it was a five, then it took on a whole new perspective.” — Robert Ricks [00:28]
• Aftermath: Katrina left over 1,300 dead, submerged most of New Orleans, and became the then-most expensive hurricane in U.S. history, serving as a wake-up call about intensifying hurricanes.
  • “Katrina was a harbinger of what would happen to hurricanes over the next two decades. Climate change would make them an increasingly powerful and regular threat.” — Ailsa Chang [01:13]

20 Years of Forecasting Advances

• Collaborative Efforts: After Katrina, agencies and scientists created the Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project (HFIP) to dramatically reduce errors in hurricane track and intensity forecasting.
  • “It's been a pivotal 20 years.” — Gabe Becky, Climate and Hurricane Scientist, Princeton [04:20]
• Major Achievements:
  • HFIP surpassed its goal to halve forecast errors within 10 years.
  • “By last year, a five day out forecast of both track and intensity was about equivalent to a two day forecast in 2005.” — Alejandra Barunda [05:50]
• How They Did It:
  • Better Computer Models: Dramatic improvements in computer modeling of storms.
  • New Observational Tools:
    • Special satellites (using microwave technology) give 3D imagery inside hurricanes.
      • “They are able to do kind of a 3D MRI like picture of the inside of a hurricane.” — Jeff Masters, Hurricane Scientist [05:21]
    • “Hurricane hunter” planes collect in-situ data with Doppler radar and oceanic sensors.
  • These advances provided crucial, real-time data and improved the accuracy of predictions.

Climate Change and Hurricanes Now

• Unambiguous Trends:
  • Hurricanes are more frequent, stronger, and wetter than 40 years ago, due to climate change.
    • “It's unambiguous that over the last 40 years, say since the 1980s, hurricanes in the Atlantic have become more frequent, more intense, wetter overall.” — Gabe Becky [06:17]
  • A hotter planet and ocean allow storms to travel farther north, with increased rainfall doing most of the damage.
    • Example: “Last year […] Hurricane Helene dropped an extra 10% more water than it would have otherwise.” — Alejandra Barunda [06:28]

Progress Under Threat

• Funding Cuts:
  • Budget slashes—particularly referencing the Trump administration—have endangered the research and capabilities crucial for continued forecasting progress.
    • “We have to continue investing in the observations, in the analysis of those observations.” — Kim Wood, Hurricane Scientist, University of Arizona [07:13]
• Economic and Social Value of Forecasting:
  • Improved forecasts save the U.S. billions per hurricane—greater than the entire National Weather Service budget.
    • “A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research last year found that improvements of forecasts saved the country 2% billion per hurricane because people could better prepare for them. That's more than the budget of the whole weather service.” — Alejandra Barunda [07:24]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Hurricane Katrina’s Escalation:
  • “When that eye exposed itself as large as it was on the satellite imagery and knew that it was a five, then it took on a whole new perspective.” — Robert Ricks [00:28]
• Science’s Response & Triumph:
  • “It's been a pivotal 20 years.” — Gabe Becky [04:20]
  • “By last year, a five day out forecast […] was about equivalent to a two day forecast in 2005.” — Alejandra Barunda [05:50]
• Climate Reality:
  • “It's unambiguous that over the last 40 years, say since the 1980s, hurricanes in the Atlantic have become more frequent, more intense, wetter overall.” — Gabe Becky [06:17]
• Forecasting Saves Lives & Money:
  • “Improvements of forecasts saved the country 2% billion per hurricane because people could better prepare for them. That's more than the budget of the whole weather service.” — Alejandra Barunda [07:24]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–01:13 — Recollections of Katrina, initial shock, and devastation
• 01:41–02:07 — Recent and historical hurricane destruction (Sandy, Harvey, Ian)
• 04:09–05:45 — Interview: How forecasting science evolved post-Katrina
• 05:50–06:49 — Climate change’s impact; storms getting wetter/more destructive
• 06:56–07:39 — Funding threats; economic value of improved forecasts
• 07:39–07:45 — Closing reflections

Takeaway

The science of hurricane forecasting has transformed since Katrina, providing more accurate predictions and saving countless lives and resources. However, these life-saving advancements hinge on consistent support and funding. As hurricanes grow stronger—fueled by a changing climate—maintaining and improving forecasting capacity remains both scientifically challenging and societally vital.