Consider This from NPR: Detailed Summary of "Lessons from Iraq, as Trump Teases Attacks on Iran"
Episode Information
- Title: Lessons from Iraq, as Trump teases attacks on Iran
- Host: NPR (Ari Shapiro)
- Release Date: June 18, 2025
1. Introduction: Trump's Critique of the Iraq War
The episode opens with Ari Shapiro contextualizing former President Donald Trump's historical stance on the Iraq War. During the 2016 Republican primary, Trump distinguished himself by vehemently criticizing the decision to invade Iraq.
- Donald Trump stated in a 2016 CBS News debate:
"Bush made a mistake. We can make mistakes, but that one was a beauty. We should have never been in Iraq. We have destabilized the Middle East." [00:17]
Trump not only condemned the war but also questioned the justifications provided by President George W. Bush, specifically the claim that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).
- Donald Trump further criticized the Bush administration:
"They said there were weapons of mass destruction. There were none, and they knew there were none." [00:30]
Ari Shapiro elaborates on Bush's 2002 assertion regarding Iraq's WMD programs:
"It possesses and produces chemical and biological weapons. It is seeking nuclear weapons." [00:47]
Shapiro underscores the inaccuracies of these claims, highlighting the absence of found WMDs post-invasion and the extensive human and financial costs incurred by the U.S.
2. Transition to Current Geopolitical Tensions
Shapiro draws parallels between the Iraq War and the current geopolitical climate, where President Trump is again hinting at potential military action, this time targeting Iran.
- Ari Shapiro: "As we record this episode Wednesday afternoon on the East Coast, President Trump is threatening to bring the US Military into another Middle East conflict." [01:35]
The justification mirrors the past narrative—alleged nuclear threats—as Trump asserts:
- Donald Trump: "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. It's very simple. We don't have to go too deep into it. They just can't have a nuclear weapon." [02:03]
3. Analysis with Steve Coll: Lessons and Parallels
To delve deeper into the implications of Trump's rhetoric and potential actions, Ari Shapiro engages in an interview with Steve Coll, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and author of The Achilles Trap. Coll provides a nuanced comparison between the Iraq War and the current situation with Iran.
3.1 Similarities and Differences Between Iraq and Iran
Coll highlights both parallels and distinctions between the two scenarios.
- Steve Coll: "There are echoes and there are differences. Let's maybe start with the differences. There's a much deeper public and agreed body of evidence about Iran's nuclear capabilities." [05:42]
He explains that unlike Iraq, where WMDs were never found, Iran has an established nuclear enrichment program. However, the key difference lies in the intentions behind Iran's actions.
- Steve Coll: "The question is their intention. And here intelligence gets a little bit murkier. But that is a difference from Iraq." [05:48]
3.2 Political Utilization of Intelligence
Coll draws attention to the political motivations behind using intelligence to justify military actions.
- Steve Coll: "Some of it is the political use of intelligence to justify a war, to articulate to publics in democratic societies... that, oh, we've got evidence that justifies this preemptive attack." [06:34]
This manipulation mirrors the pretext used in Iraq, where intelligence was leveraged to garner public and international support for the invasion.
3.3 Disconnection Between War Aims and Means
A critical point made by Coll is the disconnect between the stated objectives of military interventions and the practical means to achieve them.
- Steve Coll: "The aim of fomenting an internal rebellion was not matched by any ability of the United States to support the rebels." [06:34]
He warns that similar disjunctions may arise if military action against Iran is pursued without clear, achievable goals.
3.4 Divergence in Intelligence Assessments
A significant tension exists between the assessments of national intelligence officials and the President's stance.
- Ari Shapiro: "Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. But President Trump... I think they were very close to having it." [07:55]
Coll suggests that the President might be influenced by allies, such as those in Tel Aviv, leading to a divergence from established intelligence reports.
- Steve Coll: "Ms. Gabbard is reporting what we understand to have been a longstanding U.S. judgment. And the President may be listening to his allies in Tel Aviv." [08:42]
3.5 Potential Consequences and Historical Echoes
Coll reflects on historical precedents, drawing parallels with interventions like Libya's.
- Steve Coll: "The result... was a very complex civil war that's in some ways still going on today, more than a decade later." [09:55]
He cautions that limited military aims can escalate into prolonged conflicts, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of such interventions.
3.6 Uncertainty of U.S. Response
Coll concludes by highlighting the unpredictability surrounding the U.S.'s potential actions.
- Ari Shapiro: "As the president said today, nobody knows what I'm going to do." [10:02]
This uncertainty underscores the precariousness of the current situation and the potential for unforeseen developments.
4. Conclusion: Reflecting on Historical Lessons
The episode wraps up by reiterating the importance of learning from past military engagements to navigate present and future geopolitical challenges. The discussions emphasize the need for clear objectives, accurate intelligence assessments, and a thorough understanding of the potential ramifications of military interventions.
Notable Production Credits:
- Produced by: Michael Levitt and Conor Donovan
- Edited by: Tinbit Ermias and William Troup
- Executive Producer: Sami Yenigun
Final Note: This summary encapsulates the critical analysis and discussions presented in the episode, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the potential lessons from Iraq applicable to the current tensions with Iran.